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I need a big winner this week - but I have to ride the
way I've been capping the last 3 seasons, because
that's how I know best, and that's how I win. Check
out my games this week, and if you want my elite half,
check out my elite
picks.
Cleveland
Browns @ St.
Louis Rams (+3):
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)
The
Browns aren't as good as their 3-3 record insists, and
the Rams, while they've played more than their fair
share of terrible football, I think their make-shift
offensive line will play pretty well against a Browns
defense that knows how to give up lots of points. Cleveland
won't be able to run against the Rams, a very underrated
run defense, and thus they'll have to pass the ball
to put up points. I know Derek Anderson has had a hell
of a year thus far, but I think he slips this week.
It's always interesting to see how an underdog team
finally plays when they're favored. I think the Browns
will slip up.
Detroit
Lions (+5) @ Chicago
Bears:
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)
I
think the Lions are too offensive for the Bears. Detroit
has struggled offensively the last few games, and I
think that's an aberration, and that they'll step it
up against the Bears. The Lions are oddly confident
this season, and I kind of like that. I think that's
what the Bears had over the NFC North over the last
year, but now, every team in that division knows they
can beat the Bears, and that means trouble for a Chicago
team that can't run the football. A straight up win
by the Lions wouldn't surprise me.
Oakland
Raiders (+9) @ Tennessee
Titans:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: 5Dimes)
5Dimes
has this offer on the table, and I just can't pass it
up. I probably would think about taking the Titans at
7 or less, but 7.5 seems like a lot in a game with two
teams that are pretty similar. Both offenses are very
one-dimensional, and while the Titans have the better
defense by far, the Raiders have enough talent in the
secondary to play 8 guys in the box, making running
room tough to find for LenDale White. Vince Young is
a spread killer, so don't say I didn't warn you, but
I like the Raiders to cover the 9 point spread in this
one.
Houston
Texans @ San
Diego Chargers (-10):
(Line: Monday, 5:00pm EST: Bookmaker)
I'm
not sure how this line will change, or what will happen
to my bet at the beginning of the week, but on Monday
this game put the Chargers in as a 10 point favorite,
something I like against a defense that probably won't
be able to slow down LaDainian Tomlinson. LT looks to
be back at his best, and the Texans secondary isn't
strong enough to make Rivers fit the ball into tight
spots. The addition of Chris Chambers will open up the
field for Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, and LT - that
being said, be careful with this game, the fires around
the San Diego area could effect where this game is played,
and where the minds of Chargers' players are at.
New
Orleans Saints (-2.5) @ San
Francisco 49ers:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: Belmont)
I
don't like the Saints, I just like the 49ers less. The
Saints have dug themselves a hole deep enough that they
can't walk into any game thinking they can skate and
win. So, they'll come in and fight the 49ers long and
hard, and win by 3-7 points as the game will come down
to the last drive. But if that's the case, I like Drew
Brees to find himself again, Reggie Bush to make a big
play, or Marques Colston to snap out of his sophomore
funk. I like those 3 options a lot more than I like
Alex Smith walking out of the training room or Trent
Dilfer grandfathering the offense to lead the 49ers
to a win. Give me the Saints, but I don't love it as
much as you'd think.
Washington
Redskins @ New
England Patriots (-16):
(Line: Monday, 2:00am EST: Bookmaker)
First
of all, I don't think the line has good value in this
game, but I have to take the Pats. I think the Redskins
have the best defense the Patriots have faced thus far,
but that doesn't mean they will have trouble scoring.
New England has made it look easy this season, and while
this game might have a few more twists and turns, I
wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots held the Redskins
to 7-10 points. That means the Patriots would have to
score 27 points to surely cover, something I think is
very possible, especially with such a young quarterback
running the show for the Redskins. New England's defense
is so tactical that they always seem to take the strongest
part of opposing offenses out of their game. That means
the Redskins' rushing attack will have to go through
walls to succeed. That puts a lot of pressure on Campbell.
Yes, the Patriots are this good.
Indianapolis
Colts (-6.5) @ Carolina
Panthers:
(Line: Tuesday, 3:30pm EST: Bookmaker)
I
don't usually like the Colts as big favorites, but against
the WAY overrated Panthers, a team starting either Vinny
Testeverde or David Carr at quarterback, yeah, I'll
take my chances with my #2 team in football. The Colts
are very good, whether you or me or anyone else wants
to except that, I don't care. They are one of the best
teams in football, and Bob Sanders is the most dynamic
safety I've seen since Ronnie Lott hit the field back
in the day. Yes, he makes plays faster than everyone
else on the field. The Panthers are too slow (besides
Steve Smith - who will get special treatment) to compete
in this one.
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