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I
struggled through my free picks last week, winning
a whopping two, but I was over .500 on my Elite
Picks, as a few of you very well know. I have my
money on a winning bet in both my Free and Elite picks
this week. Really, I have my money on them. Here's
how we're getting rich… I have a feeling this is
going to be a big week. The places and times I got the
lines are listed below.
Cleveland
Browns @ New
England Patriots (-16):
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: Bookmaker)
I
have to take the Patriots here. I know the Browns have
put up points, but week after week it seems like those
they've put up points against don't have defenses as
strong as we all once figured. Well, the Patriots do
have a defenses that good, and their offense might be
even better. They definitely complement themselves.
I hate huge spreads, but the Patriots deserve that big
of a cushion. They are that good. I see a 42-14 game
in New England, as a down week doesn't seem like a reality
with this team of professionals.
Detroit
Lions (+3.5) @ Washington
Redskins:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)
Tough
game to call, both the Redskins and Lions have played
above what I expected this year. Detroit's defense played
better last week, but they were going up against a pathetic
Bears offense, so I don't know how much can be said
about that. The Redskins are coming off a bye, which
doesn't seem to help as much when byes are earlier in
the season, but that gives them a slight edge. I guess
I like the Lions to ride out their hot-streak, here,
because I'm still not convinced that the Washington
Redskins are a force on either side of the ball. I do
know that the Lions play against the run better than
many give them credit for, and that will help against
Portis and company. In this tough one, I'll take the
road team and the points.
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers @ Indianapolis
Colts (-10)
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)
I'm
not sure what to expect out of the Bucs and Colts this
week. Will we get a dominant performance out of the
Colts? Or will they play like they did against the Texans
and Titans? That's a tough call, and one you have to
think about when betting for or against the Colts. The
way I see it, Indy has a tough time against lesser opponents,
and the Bucs seem to be one of the better teams in the
NFC this season. With that in mind, and the fact that
John Gruden came into Tampa taking Tony Dungy's job,
you'd have to think that the Colts players try to come
out and embarrass the Bucs organization. I'm not sure
Tampa, as well as they've played this year, is ready
for that.
San
Diego Chargers (+1.5) @ Denver
Broncos:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)
This
game is very tough for me, but I have to believe the
San Diego Chargers figure it out sooner rather than
later. The Broncos haven't played that well, even when
given week after week of big rushing performances by
Travis Henry. San Diego might be able to stop a hobbled
Chargers rushing game, and I know Denver can't do the
same to LT. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised
if this game came down to a field goal at the end. Elam's
been questionable on all his kicks from my point of
view, so I'll roll the dice on the kid in San Diego,
and a big "must win" for the Chargers.
Baltimore
Ravens (-3) @ San
Francisco 49ers:
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bet-Jam)
The
Ravens have looked pretty bad on defense, and even worse
at punching in touchdowns on offense. They take their
best offensive player out on the goal line (McGahee)
and their play calling has been predictable at best.
Luckily, they go to San Francisco to play a reeling
Niners team that has lost 2 straight. San Francisco
will have Trent Dilfer on offense, and you can bet the
Ravens' staff will have the book on him. I like Baltimore
to realize what they are by beating the Niners by running
the ball, and sending the world at Dilfer.
Chicago
Bears @ Green
Bay Packers (-3):
(Line: Monday, 1:00pm EST: Bookmaker)
The
Bears are getting last years' lines. The Packers are
the better team this year, if the Bears start Grossman
or Griese. Talk about questions in Chicago, the downfall
of the Bears is getting more attention than the playoff
Cubs. That's a stunner. I like what Brett has done this
year, but the Packers defense is what gets me getty.
They are young and fly around making plays with the
best of them. What really has me going Green Bay's way
is the Bears' coaching questions each week. Every single
week I've heard, "We need to get Hester more involved,"
or "We need to get Greg Olsen in the game more,"
or "We should win games instead of lose them."
Thanks for the ideas, now instead of claiming that you
need to do one or the other, what do you think about
just doing it? Take the Packers resurgence to continue.
Seattle
Seahawks @ Pittsburgh
Steelers (-5.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 2:00pm EST: Bookmaker)
Despite
what I think about the Hawks, (they are very good),
the fact is that they aren't a very good road team,
and seem to struggle against the AFC (like every NFC
team). Also, this isn't Trent Dilfer and the 49ers offense,
this is the Steelers, a unit that is coming off a huge
upset at the hands of their former coach. They are going
to come out pissed and ready to go. Everything is working
against the Hawks in this one, there's no sense of urgency
on their part, they're away from Seattle, and that whole
Super Bowl refereeing stick in the spokes is history.
Look for Willie Parker to have a day.
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