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Week
16, and after a devastating Week 15, I have a muddy
hill to climb to get back up and rolling. But there's
time, I just have to figure out who's playing and who's
resting for the playoffs, or the off-season. There are
some interesting dilemmas going into the week - this
is how it looks from the LL highchair…
Thursday's
Game…
Pittsburgh
Steelers @ St. Louis Rams (+9):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)
I
kind of like the Money Line in St. Louis with the Rams.
This has the feeling of one of those games for me. The
Steelers have to think they're going to go into St.
Louis and correct some of the things that has them tumbling
down the stretch, especially against a Rams team that
has nothing to play for. Well, the Rams can be tough,
and especially against a secondary that is allowing
passing touchdowns like grocery stores give away turkeys
three days after Thanks Giving. Tory Holt and the Rams
receiving crew can put up some points, and don't expect
the Steelers to just click it back on away from Pittsburgh.
They aren't a good away team, and the pressure is building
on these underachievers. I know the Rams have nothing
to play for, but sometimes that helps, and though I've
been bad with my Thursday Night NFL Network games, I
think I might be on to something with this one.
Saturday's
Game…
Dallas
Cowboys (-10) @ Carolina Panthers:
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)
The
Cowboys have to come back strong after their pathetic
outing last week against the Eagles - and the Panthers
have to meander back to terrible after beating the Hawks
in Carolina last week. Too much ups and downs last week
for things not to get back to the way they should be
with a big Dallas victory over Matt Moore and the Panthers.
This game feels too easy.
Sunday's
Games…
Cleveland
Browns (-2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: 5Dimes)
The
Bengals are lost. I won't put all the money in the world
on this game, only because the Browns kind of embarrassed
the Bengals defense last time these two saw each other,
and Cinci will come out playing tough because of that.
But in the end, I still think the Bengals don't have
enough consistency on offense, and that will be their
undoing at home against the Brownies.
Green
Bay Packers (-8.5) @ Chicago Bears:
(Line: Thursday, 3:00am EST: Belmont)
I
want to take the Bears in Chicago as a team trying to
prove a point, but their season is over and the Packers
could have everything (#1 seed and home field advantage
throughout the playoffs) working for them if they win
this game and the right pieces fall into place. Of course,
that would mean that the Cowboys lost in Carolina (highly
unlikely) but if that happens on Saturday, this is a
nobrainer bet on Sunday. Right now, I wouldn't make
a huge play on this game. However, since I have to make
my picks early in the week, taking the Packers here
when games still matter for them, over a team that accounts
for one of their two losses, seems like a good bet.
As a common rule, it's usually smart to take a good
team over another team that they lost to earlier in
the year.
Oakland
Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-12.5)
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)
I
also like the Over in Jacksonville, but think this should
get out of hand right away. The Raiders won't have their
best running option in as Justin Fargas is out for the
rest of the season. They will have yet another interesting
quarterbacking situation that should allow the Jaguars
to rest their starters after the 3rd quarter. That beings
said, I think Kiffin and company will put up a couple
scores, and the total is only 38.5. The Jags running
backs might account for 4 scores all by their lonesome
on Sunday. Big spread, but I like it this week in Jacksonville,
especially because the Jaguars still need wins to be
playing in Jacksonville during Week 1 of the post season.
New
York Giants @ Buffalo Bills (+3):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: Belmont)
The
Bills are better than the Giants. The Bills are the
underdogs. The Bills are playing at home. The Giants
have been playing terrible. The Bills are tough and
the Giants aren't. The Bills want to win, the Giants
have Elmer Fudd playing quarterback. I don't know if
there's anything else needed in this one. This seems
like a great bet to me.
Houston
Texans (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts:
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: 5Dimes)
The
Colts didn't seem to care much about winning last week,
and I don't think they'll put out a full effort doing
so this week, either. I don't think the Colts will play
their starters for much of the game, and that gives
a distinct advantage to the Texans, even though they
haven't been the most consistent team lately. One thing
they do have is they played the Colts tough earlier
in the season, and they usually find away to put up
a pretty good fight against their conference rival.
I like the Texans and a big fat 9 from 5Dimes this week.
Kansas
City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions (-4.5):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)
The
Lions have to turn it around in this game. The Chiefs
have been pretty lackadaisical and the Lions play pretty
solid football at home. Word on the street is that Larry
Johnson might play, but I don't see that as a start
that would change this game any way or the other. Sure,
LJ is a beast, but that offensive line isn't strong
enough to blow up a run defense, and the passing game
in KC just doesn't scare opposing defenses, which probably
plays to the Lions strengths. I'm taking the Lions,
even though there's no shot they reach Jon Kitna's prediction.
Baltimore
Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks (-?):
At
my due date, this game still doesn't have an active
line at any sportsbook that I know about. Therefore,
I just won't bet the game. I would take the Hawks straight
up, but can't really even get close to imagining what
kind of line these guys are going to come up with in
this game. I'm not sure what the game means to Seattle,
but I'm also pretty sure that Troy Smith has a slower
release, this is his second game ever, and he's going
up against one of the best secondaries in the league.
Also, the Ravens offense just plain stinks. I expect
Willis McGahee to get his fair share of touches in this
game.
Monday
Night Football Game
Denver
Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-9):
(Line: Tuesday, 4:00am EST: TheGreek)
The
Chargers are hitting pretty well on all cylinders right
now, and I like their chances against a Broncos team
that has really played like donkey poop all season long.
I don't know what happened to Shanny's bunch this time
around, but it looks pretty bad when Denver can't even
run the ball. The only chance they have is Brandon Marshall,
and the Chargers' Antonio Cromartie is just the physical
freak of an athlete to match-up with Marshall. LT, Turner,
Sproles and the Charger rushing attack should eat up
the Broncos run defense, or lack there of. Seems like
an easy pick, even with the big spread.
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