Free Football Picks - Week 1 Review - 2007

New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts (-6): (WIN)
"I have to go with the Colts because history and early season dominance predicts a big win to start off the season. The Colts are 22-15-2 ATS in domes over the past 4 seasons. They also have a 33-7 record over that time span." (Me) Well, color me right, its always good to start off with a bang. You can change those records to 23-15-2 and 34-7. The Colts always start off hot, and while I think they'll struggle here and there, this Indy team has the right coaching and team leaders to make another push at the title.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings: (LOSS)
This game was an Adrian Peterson run or two away from being impossible to watch. The Falcons couldn't do dick, and the Vikings weren't much better. Unfortunately for Joey Harrington, both his picks went for Viking touchdowns. I guess that was unfortunate for me as well. Oh well, this game was a tough one to pick.

Carolina Panthers (+1) @ St. Louis Rams: (WIN)
"The Rams should be improved this year, but the Panthers are better away from Carolina as they are at home. Over the last 4 seasons, they are 24-15-1 ATS on the road, and have 24 wins overall." (Me) Some teams are home team heroes, and some teams play a little better on the road. The Panthers do their best work away from Carolina. Its always nice to go with the underdog on the road and come out with a W.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (-3): (WIN)
"Vegas has to see what I see in Kansas City. Larry Johnson is back, which gives the Texans defense something to think about, but with all the quarterback turmoil, HBO specials, camp injuries, and overall age of this declining Chiefs team, I think the young and improved Texans will easily win their first game of the year." Yes, I called this game to a T. The Texans are improved, Kubiak is a good coach, and they will surprise more than once this season. Another Sunday win… It's good to be back!

Miami Dolphins @ Washington Redskins (-3): (TIE)
"Neither of these teams does much to excite me, except I really like Jason Campbell and the two headed running back monster in Washington (Yes I'm THE guy who still thinks Clinton Portis is a Top 5 talent). Campbell ran Al Saunders' offense well in the last 3 games of the season, and I think he has just as much promise as any of the young quarterbacks in the league. He has the IT you need to win football games. I like Ronnie Brown, don't like Trent Green and his 45 yard arm, and think the Dolphins front 7 is legit, but I'm not down with Cam Cameron's games he's playing in Miami already. Doesn't he know that crap doesn't go well with veteran clubs? So, with Washington at home, and Campbell making the plays the Redskins need to win, I think they just sneak by Miami's front 7 on way to an opening day victory." (Me) This was a tie, but can I call it much better than this? Campbell wasn't great, but he did what he needed to do to win, and Portis took 17 carries for just under 100 yards. He's good.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets (+7): (LOSS)
"Thus, I'll go against the ATS dominators. I don't think the Jets are the better team here, and the Pats will probably sneak out a 3 point win with a late field goal or something." This Patriot team is scary. When Seymour and Rodney Harrison come back, hell right now for that matter, these guys are legit. I don't plan on going against the Patriots much this season. Learning lessons, guys, that's what I need to do.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5): (LOSS)
"Its hard to bet against Vince Young, I mean the kid has gone 9-2-2 ATS in his only 11 games in the NFL, as he led his team of youthful Titans to the best ATS 13 game stretch of the season. But, gone is Travis Henry and suspended is Pacman Jones, and both had just as much, if not more to do with keeping the Titans in football games last season." (Me) Yeah, like I said, its tough to bet against Vince. I realize that Henry and Pacman are out, but more importantly, apparently, is the fact that Vince still runs the show in Tennessee. His numbers weren't good, but he wins. In turn, I lost. But this is where the losses stopped.

Chicago Bears @ San Diego Chargers (-6): (WIN)
The Bears just couldn't score against the extrememly talented defensive group in San Diego. And while Chicago held LT in check for most of the game, the Truth came out and did his thing to pull away from the visiting Bears. LT threw and ran for a touchdown, meaning he was responsible for all the points for his Chargers. Even on a tough day, this guy is lightning in a uniform.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-6): (WIN)
"Everyone is giving up on the Hawks. I watched a recent show that claimed, at best, the Hawks finish with 9 wins. Give me a break. I also heard that the Hawks lost too much from last year's team. Did those guys see the Hawks off-season moves? Three safeties are new to this squad that are a better fit in Seattle's D than anyone of the guys they had last season. Patrick Kerney is the pass rusher they always wanted Grant Wistrom to be, and Marcus Trufant is back. Also, Matt Hasselbeck is healthy, and its not like Jackson's loss kills Seattle, they've been playing without him for half of the last 2 seasons. The Bucs are the Bucs, and lately, that's not a good thing to be. They are desperate to get younger at defense, but Gaines Adams isn't even a starter yet, and Simeon Rice was let go. It'll be interesting to see if Cadillac Williams comes back to have a solid season in his 3rd try, but I don't see much in terms of competition between these two clubs. Take the Hawks at home, they always win in Seattle. " (Me) Yep. The Hawks defense looked really good, and while this was Tampa, I have a feeling Seattle's D unit will do work all season long. They need to smash the run, but they have enough play makers to cause turnovers and win football games.

5-3-1 in Week 1. Not a bad way to start the season. A win is a win is a win. Ain't that the truth?