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It's been made clear to me by some of my readers that
it'd be helpful if I gave up some of my Top Bets
of the week. I like giving my thoughts on each game,
and I'll keep doing that, but if I like my chances a
little more on certain games, I'm going to put a (*)
in my write up. Hope that helps. A week after finishing
in the green with an 8-5 record, I'm coming right
back at my goal to get another perfect week. Follow
along as we're back to 14 games this week. Just
one more for me to win.
Arizona (+4) at Green Bay - (*) I know
Green Bay has won a couple lately, and Arizona is down
in the dumps, fired their offensive coordinator, has
a rookie at QB, and might not have Larry Fitz for the
3rd straight week, but I'll take the Cardinals to win
in Green Bay. Like Isaiah Thomas once said, "It's
crazy enough, it just might work." Okay, so I have
better reasoning than that, but if I'm ever getting
paid millions of dollars to sign overpriced babies,
I might think along the same lines as Ike. The Packers
haven't given up less than 23 points all season long,
while even with all the turnovers from their offense,
Arizona has been pretty stingy on defense. Chicago didn't
have an offensive touchdown. This will be Edge's best
game of the season. 100+ yards? You heard it here. With
a new offensive look from Dennis Green, I expect a better
plan on O. It looks weird now, but the Cards are a safe
bet here.
Atlanta
at Cincinnati (-4) - The Falcons have looked
pretty good offensively, but as Mike Vick has shown,
he's anything but consistent. Hell, 4 touchdowns last
week makes him a numerical lock for none this week.
No, but honestly, Marvin Lewis will have a nice plan
to detain the Mighty Falcon, and Chad Johnson and company
will have a nice outing against a lack luster pass defense
from Atlanta. By the way, it's nice to see Chad back
running his mouth in Cinci!
Baltimore
(+2.5) at New Orleans - (*) As much as it'd
be great to see New Orleans finish the season undefeated
at home, I think that dream will end this week against
the Ravens. New O has a nice shot at hitting the playoffs,
but their defensive difficiencies will catch up with
them sooner or later. The Ravens don't have much punch
on offense, and I don't trust Brian Billick to do much
better than Jim Fassell, but I have a feeling Baltimore
will get their running game together against the Saints.
If and when that happens, Baltimore could trot or with
a win rather easily.
Houston
(+3) at Tennessee - (*) The Texans are getting
better, and they are better than their record. Coach
Kubiak is a very smart man, and a great running teacher.
With David Carr starting to find his timing and accuracy,
I think we're going to start seeing a lot more of the
Texans who beat the Jaguars last week, and a lot less
of the Texans that got the number one pick last season.
I like the Titans young club, but I don't know how much
a bye week is going to help them. If anything, it cut
their streak short of 2 straight solid football games.
Jacksonville
(+8) at Philadelphia - The Jaguars are a very good
football team, still on their way to the playoffs. 7
points is too many. Philly hasn't held down a score
all season, sans the 49ers, and even in that game I
was frightened for my spread. Jacksonville had a head
gasket blow last week against the Texans, and their
the type of team that comes back stronger after a loss
like that. I think the Eagles will pull this out by
a point or 3, but that's why I have to roll with the
Jags and that touchdown on their side.
Seattle (+7) at Kansas City - (*) It's
nice to see everyone giving up on Seattle now that Matt
is out with a bum knee. Look for Seneca Wallace to impress
the football world with a solid performance against
the Chiefs. I don't think the Hawks will pack it in
like everyone else is trying to say. Maurice Morris
needs to play better, and he will. Wallace will use
his feet a little more this week, and with a week of
taking all the reps under his belt, he'll run the team
more efficiently. Wallace is talented, but even more
importantly, so are the Seahawks. Don't forget that.
San
Francisco (+17) at Chicago -The 49ers will give
the Bears a run in this one. I think Chicago is much
better than they showed two weeks ago in Arizona, but
not nearly as good as they were against Seattle. You
know, the game before everyone and their mother wanted
to call them the best team in football. The 49ers get
two starters on their offensive line back this week.
They'll pound Frank Gore all day, or until he fumbles.
Don't expect him to lose the rock. I'm not supporting
a 49er upset, but 17 points is a lot, too much to handicap
the Bears.
Tampa
Bay (+10.5) at N.Y. Giants - I like the Buc's defense.
I've liked them for a few years, and I like them this
season. The Giants beat the Cowboys, so what, Dallas
hasn't looked good. Tampa struggled early, but they're
starting to pull it together. Their rushing attack is
solid with Caddy, and their rookie QB makes just enough
plays to give them a chance to win. That means they'll
be closer than 10. That half point makes me feel that
much better. Expect a let down from New York after a
big win last Monday Night.
St.
Louis (+10) at San Diego - The Chargers showed last
week that they can be passed on. Last year was the same
thing. Against the run, San Diego is as good as it gets,
but through the air, they are susceptible to a solid
passing attack. Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce,
Steven Jackson… Anything starting to click? Yes,
the Rams have All Pro talent in the passing game. The
Chargers are the better team, but St. Louis is a tough
match-up for the Chargers. 10 points is too many. The
Rams 5-1 ATS record makes me feel all cushy inside as
well.
Indianapolis
(+3) at Denver - The Colts as an underdog. Yep,
in almost every regular season situation I'll take them
Indy boys. But this should be one hell of a test for
the run-struggling Colts. They're missing Edge nearly
as much as James misses them. Rhodes averaged 2 yards
a carry last week, allowing me to ponder Addai's growing
roll in the Colts offense. I think this will be his
week. Against a defense that is sure to donate more
time to stopping Peyton, Wayne, and Harrison, Joseph
will get his shot to take advantage. Nothing has been
said about the Broncos' ailing defensive line. After
this game, that topic will be more talked about.
N.Y.
Jets (+2) at Cleveland - Offensive coordinator issues,
like the Browns OC quit after last weeks terrible performance
against the Broncos, have me steering clear from taking
the Browns. The Jets aren't nearly as bad as I thought
they were going to be, and the Browns just haven't been
able to put it together. I like what the Browns are
going to be, but New York should take this game in Cleveland.
Pittsburgh
(-9) at Oakland - I just can't take the Raiders.
They got their win, they still wreak of a solo win season,
and unlike the other three teams that needed to fire
their Offensive mind, the Raiders are sticking with
their guy. The story on the street is, Ben might not
play. Charlie Batch has played well enough to oust the
Raiders by a touchdown and a field goal. Walter and
the Black and Silver will get sacked and smashed all
game long. Oh, and mark my words, Ben will play if he's
even close to full speed.
Dallas
at Carolina (-4.5) - If Dallas doesn't know what
to do with Plaxico Burress, I can't even imagine how
dumbfounding practice is going to be all week as they
prepare for Steve Smith to come in and single handily
beat them in Carolina. The Panthers haven't really impressed
me all year, but I'm sticking to my guns with them.
Defensively, they are very, very good. Offensively,
they haven't clicked yet. Expect that to happen at home
this week in Dallas. Another loss in Big D would make
things a lot more fun anyway.
New
England at Minnesota (+3) - (*) Minnesota
just flat out covers spreads. 5-1 ATS this season, and
I know they had a nice record last year as well. The
Vikings are tough, way tougher than a 3 point underdog
at home to an overrated Patriot team, I'll tell you
that. It wouldn't surprise me if Minnesota came out
and shut down Tom Brady and the Patriots, while rushing
to run the clock. This one will be close, but Minnesota
should win this game.
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