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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS vs. CHICAGO BEARS
The
Colts come into Miami as a touchdown favorite over the
Bears. Indianapolis has finally exercised their playoff
demons, conquering the Patriots on way to their first
Super Bowl in the Peyton Manning era, while the Bears
have reached the big show for the first time since their
1985 Super squad won the whole thing. A battle of Defense
against Offense ensues when Brian Urlacher and the Bears
take on Peyton Manning and his Colts.
An
Argument for the Bears
Chicago
comes to Miami saying all the right things. They also
show up as a touchdown underdog, something that rarely
works out for the heavily favored team. Chicago has
proven throughout the playoffs and during the regular
season, that they can win close games (27-24 over the
Hawks in Round 2) and finish games they dominate (39-14
over the Saints in Round 3). Thomas Jones and Cedric
Benson have steamrolled opposing defenses, rushing for
a combined 294 yards and 5 touchdowns in two playoff
games. And Rex Grossman, amongst much criticism, has
done everything he has been asked to do, including the
completions of some huge throws down the stretch to
set his team up for victory. Underdogs often play with
a confident, nothing to lose manor, giving them a slight
edge when the going gets tough. Chicago has lost 3 games
all season, and that's only if you count a meaningless
loss to the Packers in Week 17. The Bears score more
points per game than the Colts. Ask anyone, the Bears
defense is better than the Colts defense, no question
about it. The Bears are 7-1 against the Colts all time,
winning their last match-up with the Colts, 24-17 in
2005, when they held Peyton and the Colts to 30 rushing
yards and 172 yards through the air, while forcing 6
fumbles. That game was in Indianapolis. The Colts finished
the regular season 2-4 while the Bears finished the
season off 4-2. The bottom line is, the Colts gave up
huge rushing games all year long, while the Bears have
dominated teams on the ground, while taking big chances
off of play action through the air. Rex Grossman has
dealt with the pressure of big games well, while it's
Peyton Manning that has looked like a frustrated young
quarterback for much of post season play. The Colts
don't have a rushing attack that can force the Bears
to respect the ground game, leaving plenty of defensive
backs to give Manning trouble. If this game comes down
to special teams, the Bears get the nod over the Colts,
as Devin Hester is the most electrifying player on either
team. With their will to win in tact, he Bears should
win this game easily.
An
Argument for the Colts
The
Bears have proven over t the latter half of the season,
including the playoffs, that they can't stop the pass
adequately; So how will Chicago limit a team that has
Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison at the receiving positions,
with Peyton Manning throwing the pig skin? Answer: They
won't. Manning finally found his passing touch with
the game on the line against the Patriots. Peyton, who
is often touted as the best passer in the game, finally
finds himself in the Super Bowl, and he won't fumble
the snap in this one. With Dallas Clark stepping up
in the playoffs, Manning has too many weapons for a
Bears defense that has had trouble stopping quality
passers all season long (as even Drew Brees tossed for
over 350 yards against the Bears). The Colts dominated
time of possession all season long, and hold that title
over the Bears as well. Indy is 9-4-1 ATS recently,
when playing on grass. While many people like to give
the Bears the nod in special teams this week, they must
be forgetting a certain kicker that was acquired before
this season began. Adam Vinitieri anyone? Yes, he just
happens to be the most clutch kicker in the game. I'm
sure Devin is fast and shifty, but Adam has won a playoff
game or two, not to mention a Super Bowl championship.
Devin who? And I know Chicago has picked up yards all
season long, but Indy is much better than the Bears
in that category, and when they get to the red zone,
unlike the Bears, the Colts score at an alarming rate.
Many people will question the Colts defense coming in,
but how can you do that with the way they've played
in the playoffs, when defense matters most? Sure, the
Colts gave up 157 rushing yards per game during the
regular season, but this time of year is anything but
regular, and the Colts, in turn, have stepped right
up. In each of their playoff games, they didn't give
up 100 yards, holding Larry Johnson and the Chiefs to
42 yards on the ground, giving up only 83 yards to the
smash mouth Raven rushing game, and only 93 yards to
the two headed monster rushing attack of Corey Dillon
and Laurence Maroney. Now that's a run defense. And
how can the Bears 13 win regular season convince anyone?
As they only played 4 playoff teams the entire year.
And it's hard to believe the Bears can slow Manning,
Reggie, Marvin, and Dallas when they gave up over 200
passing yards per game to the poor passing attacks in
the NFC, not to mention 550 yards in two playoff games.
Don't let the hype of the Bears defense deceive you,
the Colts have outplayed them defensively throughout
the post season race to the Super Bowl. And that, my
friends, should be the difference.
Lucky Lester's Super Bowl Take - 1 Stat Says It All
Many
believe quarterback play will decide this game, while
others believe the team with the best running attack
will take the rings home. Others claim the best defense
will decide the Super Bowl, and some even go as far
to say big plays on special teams will help crown a
winner. However, if I had to pick one single stat that
I all but guarantee to go to the winner of the game,
I would choose Time of Possession. And that's one of
the main reasons I'm taking the Colts. Because, sure,
the Bears have a wonderful defense. Great players, great
speed, and strength up front. But Peyton Manning can
thread a needle with the best of them, and his three
main targets know how to get open. The Colts will run
the ball plenty on Sunday, but their key to controlling
the ball, and the clock, will rest on the accurate dump
down passing of Mr. Manning. He knows how to get first
downs, and he can hit a 7 yard stop pattern with the
best of them, something that will hurt the Bears early
and often. The longer Chicago's defense sits in their
stance waiting for Peyton to make a change, and snap
the ball, the more they'll struggle to stay rejuvenated.
This struggle will tire the Bears defensive front, making
the game come easier to Indy. While the Bears possess
a healthy rushing attack, Rex's inability to be consistent
on easy throws will hurt the Bears attempts to control
the clock, in turn, helping the Colts win the game.
That's my take, one stat line should decide it all,
and my money's on Peyton to get it
done!
The
Bet
Take
the Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) over the Chicago
Bears, in Miami. This is one time that the great offence
will trump the great defense, and finally we can stop
hearing people talk about Peyton Manning not winning
a Super Bowl. The line has fallen a bit, from 7 to 6.5,
which makes the Colts that much more attractive to my
betting senses. The Colts beat the Bears 35-24 as a
late score puts the game out of reach in Miami.
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