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In
the first week of the season, only 6 underdogs won or
covered the spread. In week 2 only 7 of the 16 underdogs
won or covered. WEEK 3 saw 9 of 14 underdogs win or
cover. That anomaly basically took a sledgehammer to
my balls. I'm expecting Week 4 to have the least amount
of underdog covers thus far. That's why I'm only taking
5 dogs. This year, I have lost 5 more games than I've
won. This week, I have a goal; I want to get my overall
record back to even par. I hear the Packers have a goal
too; they want to win a game. We'll see which happens
first. Follow my thought process now and sing my praises
by week's end. This is Lucky Lester trying to make amends...
Buffalo
at New Orleans (E) - The Saints are back to the
inconsistent ways of their past. Aaron Brooks hasn't
played up to his ability, and Deuce McCallister can't
find room to run behind his offensive line. Last week
against Atlanta, Buffalo lost their top defensive player,
Takeo Spikes, for the remainder of the season. Willis
McGahee had a great game against the Falcons, but he
can't win games by himself. Deuce will have an easier
time against Buffalo without Spikes there to stop him.
Aaron Brooks has to play better for the Saints to win,
and he'll do so this week in San Antonio. The Saints
defense, led by Dwight Smith, will corral JP Losman,
who hasn't proven to be much of a presence at quarterback.
The Saints will need big turnovers to win their second
game of the year, but they'll get them early, and hold
on late for the victory. Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00
ET
Denver
at Jacksonville (-4) - Jacksonville, Oh Jacksonville,
please kick the crap out-the Broncos. I was watching
Monday Night Football with the biggest Bronco fan of
all time. Of course he was one of those Bronco fans
who love to rub it in when their stupid Mile High Snipers
pummel the Chief team you bet your entire bank roll
on. They don't care that you are losing more money than
their Wal-Mart working asses make in an entire year.
They sit there and say, "Who did you bet on?"
- "What's the score?" and you just want to
kill them. Well this week I'm out for revenge, and I'm
going to get it. I'm taking the Jaguars to win at home
big. The Jaguars are one of the leagues best team, and
unfortunately for Mike Shanahan's Denver Donkeys, this
isn't a Monday night game. This is a Sunday Morning
game against one of the best rush defenses in the league.
Look for Jacksonville to put some separation between
them and the pretenders.
Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET
Detroit
at Tampa Bay (-7) - Right before the Lions took
a week off, they got hammered by the Chicago Bears.
Kyle Orton played well enough to absolutely embarrass
the revamped Lions. Tampa Bay on the other hand is 3-0
with big wins and little wins alike. They held on to
take the Packers in Green Bay last week, 17-16. They
beat Minnesota in Week 1, and halted the Buffalo Bills
in Week 2. The Bucs have allowed under 11 points a game
in 3 contests. This week will be more of the same for
Gruden, Cadillac Williams, and the rest of the much
improved Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Lions had one bad
week, but they shouldn't be left for dead. They have
an explosive offensive bunch if Joey Harrington plays
well, and their defense has many new players who have
yet to mesh. They will still be a player in the weak
NFC North. As for Week 4, the Lions should be dominated
by a Buccaneer team who has already meshed, already
played well, and seems to be getting better every game.
Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET
Houston
at Cincinnati (-9.5) - The Bengals are favored
by nearly 10 points for a reason. The Texans haven't
played within 10 of anyone, and the promise that was
there a year ago seems to have fallen like David Carr's
wounded ducks. All the blame can't go to David though,
his offensive line hasn't played very well. But it's
all right to blame David for most of it. He's looked
as pathetic as third year quarterback Carson Palmer
has looked brilliant. Palmer is an early, very early
candidate for MVP, as he's played a large roll in turning
the Bungels into ferocious Bengals once again. This
Bengal team is full of talent all over the football
field. Chad Johnson is the best young receiver in this
league, and Rudi Johnson has proven to be as tough as
they come. TJ Houshmenzadah has played the 2 receiver
roll perfectly, and Chris Perry has done a great job
at back up running back. Look for the Bengals to continue
down their warpath, and the Texans to continue to play
the roll of roadkill. Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET
Indianapolis
(-7) at Tennessee - The Titans played well enough
to cover last week in St. Louis, while the Colts played
just well enough to win at home against Cleveland. So
this week should mark another close contest? No chance.
I'm sure Peyton Manning is sick of all the "Where'd
Peyton go?" talk that's circulating. I'm expecting
a huge week from Manning and the rest of the Colt offense.
The Titans don't have the fire power to play with the
Colts. Chris Brown is the lone running back in the backfield,
so expect the highly talented back to have his biggest
day of the year. In fact expect the Titans to score
more points against he Colts than any of the Colts'
previous opponents. But don't expect Steve McNair to
pull out a victory on Sunday. The Colts will eventually
take this game easily, blowing out the Titans in Tennessee.
Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET
San
Diego (+5.5) at New England - The Patriots lucked
out big time last week in Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger
played one of his worst games in his young career, and
Willie Parker and the Steeler rushing attack didn't
do jack. This week the San Diego Chargers, coming off
their big win against the Giants on Sunday Night Football,
are coming to New England for one of the weeks biggest
games. I don't think the New England defense, minus
their starting linebackers from a year ago, minus their
best defensive player Rodney Harrison, will be able
to stop Antonio Gates or the leagues best running back,
Ladainian Tomlinson. For the first time in a long while,
LT ran like the guy who broke into this league. He had
the best single game of any player so far this year.
(192 rushing yards, 30 receiving yards, 25 passing yards,
and 4 total touchdowns) I think LT just remembered what
it's like to dominate at the highest level. I think
he's going to continue to dominate. I think the Chargers
are going to upset the defending Champs in New England.
I think Jessica Biel is hot. Take the Chargers.
Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET
Seattle
(+2) at Washington - The Seahawks are going to kill
the Washington Huskies... I mean the Redskins. Mark
Brunell bought himself another week or two as a starter
with two "GOD PLEASE!!!" throws to Santana
Moss in the last 3 minutes of the Cowboy game in Week
2. Last week the Redskins couldn't prove how bad they
actually are because they had a bye. Clinton Portis
has run better than last year, but the scheme in Washington
still doesn't fit his style of running. Mark Brunell
wishes he had the same physical skill he used to have
when he was the signal caller at the University of Washington.
Mark needs more time than the Redskins line gives him.
The Seahawks will blitz the Redskins until their helmets
fall off, not allowing Brunell enough time to get his
feet set and send bombs to Moss down field. Don't overvalue
the Redskins because they're 2-0. They beat the Bears
without scoring a single touchdown. They slipped by
the Cowboys by scoring 2 touchdowns within 3 minutes
of each other. They aren't a dominate team. They aren't
high-powered enough to stick with the Hawks who just
happen to have more weapons than Nick Cage in "God
of War." Take the Hawks in a minor upset in Washington.
Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET
St.
Louis (+3) at N.Y. Giants - What do you know, the
Rams didn't cover as favorites last week against the
Titans. Well, the Rams are underdogs this week in New
York. They're playing an overrated Giants team who got
trumped by the Chargers in Week 3. As I pointed out
last week, the Rams' have a poor record against the
spread when they are the favorites. It's different when
they're underdogs (5-5 in last 10) and even better when
the spread is 4 or less (7-3 in last 10). Plus the Rams
always like to surprise me, and originally I figure
the Giants would win this game. So everything points
to a Ram victory. Giants are overrated, the Rams trick
me left and right, the Rams have a great record against
the spread when they are underdogs, this is underdog
weekend. See... Take the Rams!
Game Date: 10/02/05 13:00 ET
N.Y.
Jets at Baltimore (-7) - I can't take the New
York Jets with Brooks Bollinger starting at quarterback.
That's it. Especially against a Ravens defense which
has underachieved in each of their first two games.
Ray Lewis and company can't be happy with their offense,
but even more so, they can't be proud of their own lack
of big plays. The Jets have tumbled off my play-off
radar, and the Ravens will take advantage of that at
home in Week 4. Jamal Lewis has to play better than
9 carries for 10 yards. Jamal hasn't played to his ability,
in fact the whole Raven team has underachieved. And
just like Daunte Culpepper did last week, the Ravens
will prove they are a contender in their third game.
Take Baltimore to stomp Brooks Bollinger's face mask
into the turf. Game Date: 10/02/05 16:05 ET
Dallas
at Oakland (-3.5) - Like I said, the Cowboys
are the worst 2-1 team in football and the Raiders are
the best 0-win team in the league. Dallas sucked last
week, but they're not as bad as San Francisco so they
slipped past Tim Rattay and the 49ers. This week Randy
Moss is going to catch two long bombs, plus a plethora
of other big plays. Dallas doesn't have the testis to
take down the Raiders in Oakland. Kerry Collins played
well last week against the Eagles, that marks the first
week in the last 10 years that both Drew Bledsoe and
Kerry Collins played a good game. Unfortunately for
Randy and the Raiders, last week was similar to the
first three games, Philadelphia pulled out a slim victory.
Dallas' weakness is in the secondary. Jerry Porter,
Randy Moss, Courtney Anderson, and Lamont Jordan will
find plenty of holes in the silver secondary. Take the
Raiders to get their first victory since Randy made
the move to Oak Town. Game Date: 10/02/05 16:15 ET
Minnesota
(+6) at Atlanta - A little known fact is the Vikings
cover in 66% of the games they are given points. Last
week, "Baby Hands" Culpepper finally found
a way to hold on to the ball last week against New Orleans.
Daunte was balling up his baby fists and doing that
"Daunte rollout celebration" thing he does.
It was nice to see. Pep had zero turnovers for the first
time this year, and the Viking defense played well enough
to win. Daunte still doesn't have a powerful running
game, but even Mewelde Moore, Michael Bennett, and Moe
Williams will look like a feared attack against the
Falcons. Atlanta has allowed a featured back to rush
for over 140 yards in two of their first three games
this year. Moore and company will do enough to keep
the Falcon defense honest. Daunte will have his second
good game in a row, throwing a late touchdown to lead
his Minnesota Vikings to victory over the over-pumped
Falcons.
Game Date: 10/02/05 16:15 ET
Philadelphia
(+2) at Kansas City - How about them Chiefs? Thanks
for the big Monday night loss boys! How about them Eagles?
That was a real nice thing you did, letting the Raiders
play close enough to cover the spread. Thanks! These
two Week 3 testi-smashers helped empty my wallet in
week 3, but nothing was more disappointing than the
Chiefs getting annihilated by the Broncos. The Eagles
continue to find ways to win, and I can't imagine Trent
Green will stop them. The "new and improved"
Chiefs defensive unit resembled the sieve they had last
year in Kansas City. They'll play better this week,
but Philly has too many studs to let the Chiefs hold
them in check. Donovan McNabb is still feeling effects
from the shot he took in Week 1, but it hasn't effected
him since the Falcon game. The Eagles always play great
as underdogs. This week will be the same old same old
for Andy Reid and the Eagles. Game Date: 10/02/05
16:15 ET
San
Francisco at Arizona (-2.5) - The 49ers should
have walked away from the Dallas game at 2-1. Unfortunately
they did just poorly enough to blow a huge lead against
an average team, ruin my Sunday, and finish with another
loss. Nice. This week, the underachieving Cardinals
will play well enough to trounce the Niners. Dennis
Green has had three weeks of frustration. They've lost
in every fashion a team can. Their defense has played
like garbage, and their offense has been pathetic. Rookie
Antrel Rolle has been picked on by opposing offenses,
he'll play better this week. Look for a couple big plays
from Rolle. Warner will be benched this week, so the
Cards should play better ball. Josh McCowen is a decent
quarterback who doesn't hold on to the ball as long
as Warner. This should help the Cardinals in a very
important game. With the Hawks playing as well as they
are, if the Cardinals lose to the bottom-dwelling Niners,
they won't have a chance at post-season football. Dennis
Green will make this clear to his Cardinals, and they'll
play accordingly.
Game Date: 10/02/05 20:35 ET
Green
Bay at Carolina (-8) - The Panthers are horrendous
against the spread when favored. But as The Rock once
told Wyclef Jean, "It Doesn't Matter!" The
Panthers are playing the winless Packers. The Packers
tend to play like moldy piss until they don't have a
chance to pull out with a win. This week the Pack won't
play good football one single series. The Panthers are
known for coming out tough after a big loss, and last
week was definitely that. Miami is better than everyone,
(including me) thought they'd be, but they aren't as
good as Carolina. Carolina will show how good they can
be on the Monday Night stage, against the Green Bay
Punching Bags. Brett Favre is catching some big time
karma from bitching about Javon Walker not showing up
to camp. Well Brett, Javon's out for the year, and by
the end of the season, or maybe even this game, you'll
wish you were out for the year. Take the Panthers in
a rare win against the spread as they slaughter the
Packers in Carolina. Game Date: 10/03/05 21:05 ET
Big
Money Bet of the Week
Minnesota
Vikings +210 against the Falcons in Atlanta. This
a good chance to double your money riding a rejuvenated
Daunte Culpepper against a less than stellar Falcon
defense. Take the Vikings to come through with an outright
win.
Game
Date: 10/02/04 16:15 ET
WAGERING
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Luck with your NFL Football Betting!
Lucky Lester - Free
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