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Just
say NO to drugs... and Week 10...
With Week 10 deep down in the depths of my memory I
will attempt to woo you with a much better attempt at
picking the pro games this week. Check my Week 10 Review
if you're brave, but don't be frightened off by a week
I'd just as well forget. We all have weeks we'd rather
not remember, like that time you woke up stark naked
in bed with that girl who just happened to have noticeable
back hair. Week 11 brings a new way to make up for lost
picks, yes, that's right, 16 games to pick. Time isn't
on my side, so I better get right down to it. Ennie
Meennie Mini Moe, My mom told me to pick the very best
one and the Bears, Titans, Cowboys, Colts, etc., are
not it...
Carolina
Panthers (-3) @ Chicago Bears - There are a few
reasons I must take the Panthers in this match-up; the
Bears are 3-5-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last
10 games, and have lost one and pushed one in their
last two. When playing NFC South teams the Bears haven't
won a game against the spread in the last three years.
They're only 1-4 against that division teams since 2002,
that one win coming this year against the hapless Saints.
The Panthers have beaten the spread three of their last
four contests. The Bears have a defense made of steel
but an offense as tough as veal. The Panthers have the
best of both worlds, with solid attacks on both sides
of the ball. With a toned down passing attack, trying
to save Jake Delhomme from throwing untimely interceptions,
the Panthers will win their 7th straight game of the
year. Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Philadelphia
Eagles (+5) @ New York Giants - Call me crazy; Gourdo,
my imaginary friend, always does, but I think Donovan
going down is good for this Eagle team. Remember when
McNabb went down a few years ago, and Koy Detmer came
in a ran the show? He played really well. Then Koy went
down, and AJ Feely came in and led the Eagles to victory.
Well, I think it's going to happen again here. Without
McNabb roaming the field, Andy Reid has to put a lot
more thought into his game plan. McMahon will give the
Eagles a threat on the ground, like McNabb used to be
before his hernia, and his arm is strong enough to make
all the throws. Don't be surprised if the Eagles surprise
and make a push for their Division Title.
Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Jacksonville
Jaguars (-4.5) @ Tennessee Titans - In their last
five contests, the Jaguars are 1-4 against the Titans.
Make that 2-5 after this game. The Jaguars are as good
as they've been since they were an idea for a franchise,
and the Titans are as sickly as they've been in years.
Chris Brown has been solid, but McNair looks average
at best. With trouble at the receiver spot, don't be
surprised if the Titans fail to score more than 14 points
on Sunday. The Jaguars will pick on rookie Adam Jones
with tall receivers Earnest Wilford and Reggie Williams.
Take the Jaguars in this game, as they attempt to take
down the Titans in Tennessee.
Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Detroit
Lions (+10) @ Dallas Cowboys - In their last 10
games when favored, the Cowboys are 3-6-1 against the
spread. They lucked out big time when McNabb threw a
touchdown pass to Roy Williams, putting Dallas up for
good, 21-20. What the Cowboys didn't do was show me
they are a dominate football team. In fact, Philly dominated
that Monday Night game for 55 minutes. As luck would
have it, the 'Boys won. This week might be another victory
for Dallas, but don't expect it to be that easy. The
Lions will be ready to play. With a big play defense,
all the Lions have to do to win is get Joey Harrington
to play like he did last week. Yeah, that's all they
have to do. Their defense will keep them close. Close
enough to cover. Close enough to win? Game Date:
11/20/05 13:00 ET
Indianapolis
Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) - This year
the Colts are 6-3 ATS, being favored in every single
game. The Colts are undefeated. In their 10th game of
the season, the Colts will walk away with their first
defeat. Indianapolis hasn't faced an offense with the
Bengals firepower, consistency, or balance. The Colts
will be ready for this game, but I don't think luck
will be on their side. Carson Palmer will outplay Peyton
Manning like he has all year. This will be a battle
of the leagues top quarterbacks, and a dandy it should
be. Take the Bengals coming off a bye week. Coach Lewis
will have them ready to rise at home against the Colts.
Game Date: 11/20/05 16:15 ET
New
Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots (-10) -
These are the same old Saints and the growing too old
too fast Patriots. Nothing New about them besides their
names. This has been a very tough year for the Saints.
Think Rambo, think stale gum, think Mickey Rourke in
Sin City tough. I'm talking tough here. When I say tough,
I mean completely impossible tough to swallow. Here's
a little hint, there won't be a bright spot for this
team until the draft. In this fine season, the Saints
are 2-4-1 against the spread as underdogs, while only
winning 1 out of 6. The Pats are an even 3-3 picked
to win. Tom Brady will put them one game up in that
category when they take down the Saints big in New England.
Aaron Brooks just isn't consistent enough to play well
an entire game against the Patriots. He doesn't have
Deuce McCallister to lean on. This should be an old-fashioned
trouncing. Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Arizona
Cardinals (+10) @ St. Louis Rams - When picked as
the favorite, the Rams are 1-3 ATS this season, and
3-7 ATS in their last ten games. The obvious pick is
the Rams, who've played much better since Martz had
to walk away because of his sickness. But the Rams are
still the Rams, a team that plays to the level of their
opponents. The Cardinals Kurt Warner will be out to
prove he can still get the job done. He'll look to win
his first game as a Cardinal.
Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Tampa
Bay Buccaneers (+6) @ Atlanta Falcons - The Buc
doesn't stop here. The Buc's find themselves atop the
NFC with a much improved Chris SImms at quarterback
and a struggling rookie running back at the center of
the offense. Joey Galloway has played awesome, but the
Bucs can still get much better. They'll have to play
better to beat the Falcons. Atlanta comes into this
game with a loss to the Packers on their conscience.
This is a must win for Atlanta. The Buccaneers, however,
will have other ideas. Cadillac Williams will finally
have a day he can write home about, as even a 1st time
starter Samkon Gado rushed for over 100 yards against
Atlanta. The Falcons won't be able to stop Williams,
and when they commit 8 or 9 to the line, Galloway and
Simms will hookup for big scores.
Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Oakland
Raiders @ Washington Redskins (-6) - As underdogs,
the Raiders have lost every single game this season.
They're 1-5 ATS in these games. I'm taking the Redskins,
I don't know about you. The Redskins are about even
this year, 3-2 as favorites. Washington showed they
can put up points against the toughest defenses in the
league. This week, they play a defense that is average
at best. With young corners trying to keep up with Santana
Moss, this should be another high-scoring affair from
Washington. The Raiders need to win the rest of their
games to get anywhere, the only place they'll go is
the off season. This will just be another step toward
the bottom of the league and the top of the draft.
Game Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Pittsburgh
Steelers (-2) @ Baltimore Ravens - The Steelers
will find it hard pressed to score points if Ben Roethlisberger
doesn't start on Sunday. Fortunately for the Steel Show,
it will be harder for the Ravens to score with Kyle
Boller calling plays against their defense. That's right,
I'd take Tommy Maddox and the Steelers against Boller
and the Ravens any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Shit, I'd take the Steelers if Randel-El was running
the show. In fact, the Steelers might be better off
with Antwaan throwing the ball. Did anyone see that
running bomb that was dropped on a dime to Hines Ward?
The Steelers win football games. They always seem to
find a way. The Ravens stumbled on a couple wins earlier
in the year, but their glory days look to be over. Take
Steel City and whoever they have taking snaps. Game
Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Miami
Dolphins (+2) @ Cleveland Browns - I don't know
how the Dolphins can be 3 point underdogs against the
Patriots and 2 point underdogs against the Browns. Don't
get me wrong, the Browns play tough, but are they a
point away from New England? No, no, no. The Dolphins
are better than the Browns. Nick Saban has a powerful
defense and an apt offense. I've sold the Phins short
all year long, but I will be had no longer. Viva Miami!
Gus Frerotte for Prez!
Game
Date: 11/20/05 13:00 ET
Seattle
Seahawks (-12) @ San Francisco 49ers - The Seahawks
are good, and the 49ers have Cody Pickett starting at
quarterback. 'Nough said. But wait, I'll say more; sure
the Niners played tight with the Bears, but Chicago
doesn't have the offensive explosiveness that Seattle
possesses. Shaun Alexander is leading the league in
rushing because he is a great back with the best offensive
line in the league. Matt Hasselbeck is accurate and
confident, and he can make every pass in the book. Darrell
Jackson won't be back this week, but that doesn't seem
to bother the Seahawks, they've lost one game without
D-Jack in the lineup. Look for Matt to look to D-Hack
and Joe Jurevicius for big plays to balance Alexander's
running. Hawks win big in San Francisco. Game Date:
11/20/05 16:05 ET
Buffalo
Bills (+10) @ San Diego Chargers - As an underdog
the Bills are 1-3 ATS this season. Their single win
came in a game where they were 9 point dogs. This week
they are 10 point dogs against the Chargers. In their
three losses against the spread, they lost by a combined
49 points. Basically their getting kicked around like
the girlfriends of NFL tight ends. Yeah, I said it.
The Bills are playing better, more confident, and JP
Losman looks like he might get this quarterback thing
down after all. I'm taking the Bills to get surprisingly
close to Ladainian Tomlinson and the Chargers. The Chargers
still win at home. They need this game just as bad as
ever.
Game Date: 11/20/05 16:15 ET
New
York Jets @ Denver Broncos (-13) - Besides the
fact that when favored the Broncos have won three straight
games ATS, and are 6-3-1 in their last 10, the Jets
just don't have anything going for them. Their season
is basically meaningless; at 2-7 there is no chance
for New York to catch the average Patriots for a shot
at the playoffs. Their coach, one of my favorite coaches
in the league, Herman Edwards, is in jeopardy of losing
his job. Curtis Martin is getting older, and the trade
of Doug Jolley for Heath Miller (Pick #22) is looking
more and more like a major mistake. The Broncos, on
the other hand, have overachieved all the way to 7-2.
Seeing as though I didn't pick them as a playoff contender,
it's time for me to apologize. Yeah right. Good luck
losing in the first round you mile-high playoff screw-ups.
Anyway, back to this game; the Broncos will have to
try very hard not to kick the living crap out of the
Jets. New York's defense can only play hard for so long,
especially up their in that thin air. Too much time
on the field will be their downfall as Little Spencer's
Broncos win again.
Game Date: 11/20/05 16:15 ET
Kansas
City Chiefs (-6.5) @ Houston Texans - The Chiefs
may have lost, no, got embarrassed by the Bills, but
by no means are they going to lose to the Texans on
Sunday Night Football, and there is no way they win
by less than a touchdown. Larry Johnson is going to
annihilate the Houston Texans defense, that has taken
a step back from last year. Trent Green won't have a
game as bad as he had last week, and Dick Vermeil has
to realize he can't play it safe anymore. More touchdowns,
more big plays, more go for it to win the game, less
losing to teams like Buffalo. (The Chiefs are 4 out
of 5 ATS this year when favored) Game Date: 11/20/05
20:35 ET
Minnesota
Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-4) - The Vikings
can 't continue to squeak by like this. Two weeks in
a row, amazing! Until last week, the Vikes were 0-6
as underdogs against the spread in 2005. Nice. Randy
Moss always plays well against Green Bay. Unfortunately
for the Brad Johnson, Randy runs routes for the Raiders.
There was 3 non-offensive touchdowns last week, and
Minnesota still barely beat the Giants. The Packers
have found a little trust in Gado, and they'll continue
to use him as he seems to have a knack to reach the
end zone. Brett Favre continues to rifle perfect passes
to his receivers. Donald Driver is underrated. Look
for the Packers to even the season series on Monday
Night Football.
Game
Date: 11/21/05 21:05 ET
WAGERING
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Good
Luck with your NFL Football Betting!
Lucky Lester - Free
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