I
followed up my best week of the year with a
buck wild 8-7-1 performance last week.
As usual, some games boggled my mind, (For example;
Miami upsetting a New England team that still
had something to play for) but I managed to
add to my winning ways pulling off an 8-7-1
record and moved my season record to 111-101-7.
Who would've known TO would go down in Philly
and Eli Manning would have a good day against
the Steel Show? Not me. But to my credit, I
predicted another fine performance by Billy
Volek, also saying that Big Ben would do good
things against New York. Both things happened
while my bets went to the house. My wife didn't
send me back to the sofa bed though. Don't know
if that had more to do with it being cold at
night or not but either way… Lester remains
lucky, heh heh heh. Lucky's money picks, Jacksonville
over Green Bay, Larry Johnson over Denver, and
New Orleans over Tampa Bay; went down as smooth
as white rice. I've got two weeks to bolster
my fine year, so let's let it ride!
Green
Bay (+3) at Minnesota - Green Bay lost to
Jacksonville last week, but so what? The Jag's
have been playing better than either of these
two teams. The Vikings should have lost to the
Lions a week ago, but pulled out a "W".
Randy Moss should be as healthy as he's been
all year, but even in a dome the Packer "O"
should easily penetrate the gaping Viking defense.
Ahman Green and company will get some much-deserved
respect on the ground, and Brett will terrorize
a secondary that finds itself at the bottom
of the NFL food chain. Minnesota will always
find a way to put up a fight, but I expect the
Pack to win this game. Game Date: 12/24/04
15:00 ET
Oakland
at Kansas City (-8) - The Chiefs are
riding one of the hottest players in football,
Larry Johnson. I must say I've loved the kid's
ability since his 2000 plus yard season back
at Penn State. After gaining 104 yards rushing
on just 7 carries two weeks ago against Tennessee,
Vermeil decided it would be best to feed him
the ball all day against Denver. He was right.
Johnson carried the pig 30 big times for 151
yards. Big time. Johnson will get his share
of yards against a poor run defense in Oakland.
The spread is quite high, but the Chiefs have
the offense to get it done.
Game Date: 12/24/04 17:00 ET
Denver
at Tennessee (+4) - Denver has given
fans reason to throw up. That's right, the Broncos
have done their best to fall right out of playoff
contention losing 3 of their last 4. I love
this stuff. I like to think Shanahan is doing
his damnedest to test Bronco ownership. Jake
Plummer has thrown a numbing 19 interceptions,
most in crucial situations, and most leaving
Shanahan's face as red as a radish. His ability
to ruin a completely productive rushing attack
has me wondering why Mike doesn't have Jake
hand off more often. Did I mention their 1 win
in the last 4 games came against Miami. Yikes!
I'd love to see Billy Volek throw the ball around
the "improved" Denver defense this
weekend. Something tells me I might just get
my wish. Either way, I can't put money, or advise
you to put money down on a team that has lost
3 of 4, and only beaten the Dolphins... by 3
measily points. Seems ridiculous right? Take
the new version of the Run N' Shoot, with emphasis
on SHOOT!
Game Date: 12/25/04 20:30 ET
Atlanta
(+4.5) at New Orleans - Atlanta doesn't
have much to play for, but should they be an
underdog against the Saints? Oh no! The Falcons
pulled out an overtime victory over a tough
Panthers team last week. They won't be risking
the health of their players to long in this
one, but long enough to pull out a victory against
a New Orleans team that is done. Even though
they seem to play their best when the season
is over, I can't find enough reason to take
them as 5-point favorites. That's just ludicrous.
Game Date: 12/26/04 13:00 ET
Baltimore
at Pittsburgh (-5) - Pittsburgh won't
let up now that they have the best record in
the AFC. They aren't a let up kind of team.
They did manage to play a close one with the
Giants, who have been pathetic since their fast
start. That's a good reason for them to get
back out on the field and remember how to dominate.
They have a chance to put a big dent, if not
an end to Baltimore's playoff hopes by beating
them this weekend. Ray Lewis and company always
seem to find a way when their season is on the
brink of extinction, but the Steel Show might
be too much to handle. Big Ben played a good
game last week, minus a couple of picks. On
that note, he will be back to his old tricks,
handing the ball off to Bettis and or Staley
this Sunday. Look for Pittsburgh to win a war
at home.
Game Date: 12/26/04 13:00 ET
Chicago
at Detroit (-6) - What happened to Joey
Harrington last week? After throwing for a total
of 300 yards in his last three games, he almost
single handily beat the Vikings last week with
361 yards. Though, often injured, Roy Williams
is getting utilized again, and Joey is showing
he might not be as terrible as he's shown the
last few weeks. They still lost though, so buyers
beware. I'm taking Detroit here, not only because
of their inspiring offensive performance a week
ago, but also because of the pathetic team the
Bears have turned out to be. I don't care what
they did to amaze me this year, they are still
pathetic. Krenzel, Hutchinson, Jeff George,
I don't care who they put back there. All three
of those guys don't belong starting on Sundays.
Detroit might very well win by default.
Game Date: 12/26/04 13:00 ET
Houston
at Jacksonville (-7) - I like to bet
on Houston because they are tough. They have
a solid offense, especially when David Carr
shows up, and a resilient defense, that gets
better and every day their young guys get older.
But, it's not their year, and not their week.
The Jags showed me a lot by beating the Packers
last week. I see their goal, and Houston won't
stop the Jags from reaching the playoffs. Jacksonville
has a born leader at QB as well as a stud running
back who is playing his best football of the
year. Their run D, which was mediocre last year,
has returned with the health of Marcus Stroud.
The feisty Texan team will find it tough to
produce when their horse, Dominic Davis, can't
get free. This game is too important for the
Jaguars to lose. Game Date: 12/26/04 13:00
ET
N.Y.
Giants at Cincinnati (-6.5) - Eli Manning
played pretty well against a Steeler D that
has proven to be one of the tops in the league.
But, like many rookies, Eli won't be consistent
week after week. In fact, I see him struggling
against an improved Bengal team. Eli doesn't
have a defense to rely on, and it will show
against a Cincy squad with some weapons. Game
Date: 12/26/04 13:00 ET
San
Diego (+7) at Indianapolis - I'm starting
to realize why Eli Manning didn't want to come
to San Diego. He didn't want to be stuck behind
a Pro-Bowler. Drew Brees got voted in by fans
and peers this last week, and he gets my congratulations.
He's not only a lock for most improved, but
should finish in the top 5 for MVP voting. The
MVP, of course, will be Peyton Manning. What
a match-up this week. Both these teams would
like to continue their winning streaks on into
the playoffs, and if they meet in the AFC championship,
this game could very well decide who plays at
home and who travels across the US. Is that
something to play for? Indeed. Though Peyton
has burned my predictions, I can't bet against
the Chargers and 7 points. Their defense is
better than an improved Colts D, and their offense
is almost as good. Ladainian Tomlinson showed
what he could do last week. The Chargers also
showed they know how to win, throwing only 6
times last week, when running would get the
job done. I like these Chargers. Game Date:
12/26/04 13:00 ET
Buffalo
(-11.5) at San Francisco - The Bills are
trying to sneak into the playoffs behind Willis
McGahee. To bad he's out this week, and probably
next. Good thing they play the worst team in
the NFL this week. I read an article this week
that claimed Ken Dorsey and Tim Rattay should
get a combat star for playing behind their pathetic
offensive line. Sure, but the rest of the team
should get some friendly fire protection for
playing with those two guys at quarterback.
Honestly, the more I look at the 49ers the more
I believe USC could take them. Buffalo, even
with Drew Bledsoe as their primary option, should
be able to produce enough points to beat the
horrendous Niners by 2 touchdowns. They might
even slip it in the playoff backdoor, and if
they do, ha, take that Cowboys!
Game Date: 12/26/04 16:05 ET
New
England at N.Y. Jets(+2) - The Jet's
are underdogs at home... they must be playing
New England. Last time the Patriots took advantage
of costly Jet mistakes, but not this time. New
York has found Chad Pennington, who has in turn
rediscovered Santana Moss. I warned everyone
earlier this year that, "If Pennington
can find a way to get Santana into the offense,
watch out." Well, watch out! Consider Moss
found. Moss doubled his touchdown receptions
on the year, and collected 5 passes for 80 yards.
Curtis Martin is still Curtis Martin, which
means he's dangerous. The Jets D remains stingy.
Look for the Jets to give the Patriots their
first losing streak in a long time. Game
Date: 12/26/04 16:05 ET
Arizona
at Seattle (-7) - Oh boy, Seattle, what
can I do with you? Last weeks collision with
a much better Jets squad leaves the Seahawks
reeling through the playoff race. Fortunately,
they could very well lose two of two and get
in. But that won't happen. The Hawks will have
everyone back next week, including the return
of Koren Robinson. If anything, that gives Matt
more options. The Hawks might even make it to
the Super Bowl. The Eagles are without the man
(TO) who gave their passing game credibility,
and everyone else is just average. If the Hawks
can pick up a little confidence on their way
in to the post season, they might just be able
to pull it off. Everyone sees the talent except
them. It's time to realize what they are, and
start playing like it. Game Date: 12/26/04
16:15 ET
Carolina
(+3) at Tampa Bay - Carolina is good. They
barely lost to the Falcons, who have already
clinched a first round bye. They could still
find themselves in the playoffs with two wins
in the final two weeks. After their turnaround,
I've got to admit, anything is possible, especially
for them, even more so in the NFC. If they don't
make the playoffs, it won't be because they
aren't one of the better teams in the NFC, it
will be because of the injuries that killed
them in the beginning of the season. Stick with
a team with a chance here, not to mention a
much better team in Carolina. Brian Griese has
fallen back to earth, as expected, and so have
the hopes of Gruden's Buccaneer squad. I wouldn't
be surprised to see Phil Simms sometime in this
one. Game Date: 12/26/04 16:15 ET
Washington(-2)
at Dallas - The Skins are better than Dallas,
although I'd love the Cowboys to win in hopes
that their draft pick selection would get worse,
I can't ever really root for them. I definitely
can't bet on them. Yeah, one could argue that
they put up a good fight against Philly last
week, but let's be honest; Philly was never
worried about losing that game. They knew all
along, all they had to do was walk down the
field and dive in the end zone. That's what
they did. Washington has played better of late.
The Cowboys struggle when they can't run. If
the Redskins have one thing, it's a defense
that is tough as nails. Now if they could just
get a quarterback to show he's worth something.
The Skins will give the ball to a revitalized
Clinton Portis this Sunday, who will in turn
crush a defense that has been sorry all year.
Game Date: 12/26/04 16:15 ET
Cleveland
at Miami (-7.5) - Talk about a pathetic
game. If this game got canceled, I don't think
anyone would argue. The Browns have only looked
more pathetic win since Butch Davis did the
right thing by resigning. The Dolphins have
only gotten better, but still have much to ask
this year for Christmas. The Dolphins beat the
Patriots on Monday Night, which, unfortunately,
was their brightest moment of the year. While
this game pits the two teams that have lost
their coaches to frustration, the Dolphins have
been better since the move, while the Browns
have been horrendous. Look for Miami to dominate
for the first time this year.
Game Date: 12/26/04 20:35 ET
Philadelphia
(+3) at St. Louis - Even if TO is out, McNabb
plays 2 quarters, Westbrook gets 7 carries,
and the defense plays half their backups, the
Eagles still shouldn't be underdogs. The Rams
are horrible. Hasn't anyone realized this? Let's
look at their last five games.... Oh yes, there
it is, 1-4 with their only win being against
a real tough 49er team. Now do you see? The
Rams aren't worth a bet, ever. They got beat
31-7 by the Cardinals last week, for God's sake.
My prediction; Philly plays like a team that
is looking for offense with their stud receiver
out. They whip St. Louis early and often. Then
their second string comes in and adds to the
destruction. Underdogs? You've got to be kidding
me.
Game
Date: 12/27/04 21:05 ET
WAGERING
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Good
Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester
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