Oh,
the horror! The horror of going 5-9 in
week thirteen. Lucky is clinging to a positive
mark for the season at 92-89-6. Week
fourteen looks impossible to predict so it will
probably be a monster of a winner! The NFL is
nuts! ESPN's Tom Jackson claims this is the
most unpredictable season he has ever witnessed
and I would concur!
Bengals
@ Patriots(-11) - Coach Belichick will
have Corey Dillon in handcuffs on Sunday. He
likes to do ridiculous things like that. Dillon
could run all over his former team, but Belichick
likes to show everyone he doesn't need any player
to win ball games. Dillon will see a limited
number of carries, but the Patriot's Tom Brady
will be up for the challenge. I see something
like week 1 against the Colts. Brady will come
out with Dillon on the bench, running some Run
and Shoot offense, no huddle, and they will
stomp a less talented Bengals team. Carson Palmer
will cool off this week. His interceptions will
match if not exceed his TD passes. The Patriots
by 11 is tough because they play to close to
many opponents. But if they play anywhere near
75% of how they could, the game should be a
sleeper by quarter 3. The Pats show the NFL
who's defending champ in week 14. I will be
watching. Okay, I'll at least stay posted. I'll
watch Boomer during his 2 minute drill, how
about that? Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET
Giants @ Ravens(-10) - The Giants got
pistol whipped by the Redskins last week. That's
enough for me to take the Ravens. The Redskins
are horrible. The Ravens aren't horrible, even
if Chester Taylor is running the ball. Boller
is bad, but not bad enough not to throw a couple
touchdown passes against a team that allowed
Patrick Ramsey, of all people, to throw 2 in
a single game. Ouch! Not that it should matter
much. I predict the Ravens D will score more
points than the Eli Manning led Giant offense.
Ravens have to win this game, while the Giants
gave up weeks ago.
Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET
Lions
@ Packers(-9.5) - Looks like Brett Favre
really showed the Eagles who was boss. Okay,
so I missed that one, we all make mistakes from
time to time. Yeah, yeah, I made a bunch of
mistakes last week. This week will be different.
I kind of, really believe, and promise a little
that my picks will be better. This week is tough,
there are only 2 games where teams are less
than 6-point underdogs and this isn't one of
them. Last week, the Packers really showed the
odds makers that they deserved to be 9.5-point
favorites. They are crazy, but I'm with them
on this one. Follow me into crazy odds maker
world, and see if we can both make some dough.
Brett Favre was horrible last week. In fact,
Donovan McNabb threw more touchdowns in the
first half (5) then Favre completed passes in
the second half (3). But this is the thinking:
Brett can't possible play that terribly two
weeks in a row, his chest hair won't let him.
Brett is a competitor and he's got to be a little
ticked about his big game performance, or lack
there of. He, undoubtedly, let his facial hair
grow all week, anticipating a must win in Lambeu.
Must win might be a stretch, but Brett will
play as though it is. The Packers will rally
behind their fearless leader and destroy a Lion
team that gained a little confidence last week.
Packers by two TD's in this one, no problem.
Game Date: 12/12/04 16:15 ET
Seahawks
(+6) @ Vikings - Both these teams had me
pissing and moaning last weekend. The Hawks
lost to Dallas, which hurt like an ingrown toenail.
Parcells is looking good on waiting for Julius
Jones and picking up a number 1 pick in next
year's draft. The Hawks have been piss poor
lately, but should have won on Monday. Amazingly,
they are still in first place in their division.
Lucky for them. Hasselbeck was back last week,
and he will be even better against the Vikings
in week 14. I like the Hawks to win here, setting
the Vikings up for a repeat performance of last
years amazing escape from the playoffs. Arizona
made like Houdini, pulling a Viking out of a
post season before it started, amazing. The
Vikings are trying to fit into the same category
as the Saints. Moss is back, or is he? He's
fine, he's hurt. Culpepper has come down to
earth, but should put up big numbers against
the Hawks, who let just about anybody cash in
for 300 yards passing. The Hawks might go 8-8
and get into the playoffs. The NFC is a joke
this year. Either way, both of these teams lost
to B-teams last week, so the 6 the Hawks are
getting, makes me feel a little easier.
Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET
Raiders
(+7.5) @ Atlanta - The Raiders have been
playing tough lately. They beat a Bronco team
in the snow in Denver, and then lost by a TD
to the Chiefs last week. Atlanta got shut out
by a diligent Bucs squad a week ago. The way
the season has been flowing, I should predict
the Falcons to win by 20 points, but I just
can't do it. I like the "grip it"
and "rip it" passing attack the Raiders
have been sporting on offense. Their defense
still struggles, but now the offense puts up
enough points to be in ball games. The Falcons
pass defense is atrocious, so Kerry Collins
might be set for a big weekend. When all is
said and done, the spread is too big. A touchdown,
maybe, but that half point looms large. Game
Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET
Chicago @ Jacksonville(-7.5) - After
the quarterback circus the Bears had been running
since starter Rex Grossman went out with a bum
knee, they did the unthinkable and signed long
time loser Jeff George. His absence from the
league had reached a number that makes you use
the plural version of year. But it was all a
big trick. All along, through Jonathan Quinn
medicine boy, Craig QB rating Krenzel, and Jeff
"Who Knows George, the Bears had someone
who could produce a QB rating over 65 all along.
What" were they waiting for the last 7
weeks? I'm pretty sure they have my column tapped.
They saw that I had risked it all on the Vikings,
and that's what set them off. Newly signed George
didn't play a snap; instead, Cowboy refugee
camp Hutchinson led the tricky Bears to victory,
by 10 no less. Now they are really trying to
trick me, but I won't be had. I'll take the
Jaguars in this one, not because they're better,
but they are. Not because they need the win
more, but they do. It's because the Bears showed
me last week that they can win, and if anything,
they were just trying to trick me. The Jags
will call the Bears on their bluff, beating
them by 3 touchdowns in a Jacksonville swamping.
Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET
New
Orleans (+7) @ Dallas - I can't believe
the Julius Jones show is off to a thrill ride
in Dallas. The Seahawks can't stop anyone, but
neither can the Saints. He should be close to
150 again, and it's gonna make me sick. Luckily,
the Cowboy defense is so terrible, even the
inconsistent Aaron Brooks should make mince
meat of their once daunting secondary. The Cowboys
have won two straight and are pushing for a
late season run that could have me in tears
if they make the playoffs. But that won't happen.
The Saints, who have already underachieved enough
to write off their own season, will snap the
towel at the Cowboys. Deuce should run easily
against Dallas, but then again, he's ran well
once or twice all year. Joe Horn, the one bright
spot for the Saints will have another big game
against a Dallas team that helped Matt Hasselbeck
get back on track a week ago. Their D looks
like they are playing with 9 guys out there;
wide-open spaces have a whole new meaning. Saints
to upset Dallas.
Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00 ET
Colts
@ Texans (+10.5) - The Texans will win
on Sunday. Mark my words, Houston has underachieved
lately, and will surprise Manning and his boys
with a tough game. That's not it though. Manning
will throw an interception near the end of the
game in what would have been the game winning
drive. Okay, it's true. I've been so off lately
that I thought I'd go for it all with this one.
Think… if that stuff actually happens you'll
all be mystified. Well, I'm sticking with it.
The Texans will stun the world! Or at least
Sunday warriors everywhere. David Carr will
be on in Texas, but Manning will get within
one of the touchdown record. It wont be enough
though, 10 points will be too hard to cover
away from home. Game Date: 12/12/04 13:00
ET
Jets
(+6) @ Pittsburgh - The Jets will upset
Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh. New York is a good
team, and although they've come up short against
the likes of the New England Patriots, they
will be singing in the streets of New York on
Sunday. A streak even more amazing then the
Patriots consecutive wins mark will be broken.
Big Ben will lose his first game. The Jets are
too good and fast on defense, and Chad Pennington
is back at the helm for New York. Curtis Martin
will run for tough yards against a good D. In
the end, the game will be closer than the 6-point
spread. The Jets will win outright.
Game Date: 12/12/04 16:05 ET
Dolphins
@ Broncos(-11.5) - The Broncos are bad
lately, but bad enough to lose to the Dolphins?
No! The Dolphins would be worse off winning,
with only a good draft pick to lose. The Broncos
still look like they will make the playoffs,
and should come back to form against a depleted
Miami team. Miami did put up good numbers against
a good Bills D last week, but the Dolphins D
did something inconceivable. They gave up a
7-yard run to Drew Bledsoe. In one-10 second
trot 7 yards down field, Drew Bledsoe doubled
his seasons rushing totals. I didn't see it,
but I heard the person he ran by was seen slamming
his head against the locker after the game.
Bledsoe was quoted saying he felt like a track
star during his run. In further statistical
searching's, I found that Drew's yards per carry
where right up at .5 yards per carry this season.
Not bad for someone who could hike the ball,
fall forward and gain 2 yards. This being said,
Jake Plummer should find room to snake around
in Denver on Sunday. So will the rest of the
Broncos. This should be just as bad as the spread
insists.
Game Date: 12/12/04 16:05 ET
Rams
(+6.5) @ Panthers - This is funny. The Rams
are bad, but not 6.5 points worse than the lowly
Panthers. I know the Panthers have won a couple
games lately, but that doesn't change what they've
done for most of the year, lose. Nick Goings
will rush for fewer yardages than Stephen Jackson,
and Chris Chandler will throw up deep Hail Mary's
that will be caught by the solid receiver combo
of Tory Holt and Isaac Bruce. Taking the Rams
to win here should pay around 2-1, if not more,
so don't waste time on the 6.5 points. Bet big
or go home. And then if you lose, go home to
your box, like me.
Game Date: 12/12/04 16:15 ET
49ers
(+7) @ Cardinals - I was going to take the
Niners here, but then I remembered how absolutely
pathetic they are. Kevan Barlow, the guy who
had signed up to be their lone bright spot,
has been worse than disappointing. Unfortunately,
his team is even more pathetic than he has been.
The Cardinals shouldn't ever be 7.5-point favorites,
but that doesn't take into account a game against
San Francisco. McCown is back this week, and
Dennis Green should get to show Arizona fans
a little glimpse of the future. Boldin, Fitzgerald,
and a tough defense should rub this one out
without any interruptions.
Game Date: 12/12/04 16:15 ET
Eagles
(-9.5) @ Redskins - The Redskins put up
big numbers against the Giants, but once again
they are overrated against a superior Eagles
team. Portis should be limited to 10-15 touches
again in this one, because the Skins will be
out of this game by half-time. Good thing for
them, they can turn to the passing prowess of
one Patrick Ramsey. He threw for more touchdowns
than picks last week, which is a big deal for
him. Ramsey won't make that stat a streak this
week. TO should catch a couple passes, score
a couple touchdowns, and mock the Redskins in
some hilarious and disrespectful manner. I see
TO dancing into the end zone. Game Date:
12/12/04 20:35 ET
Cleveland @ Buffalo(-11) - I hate
thinking about watching this game. I hate taking
Buffalo and giving 11 points. However, the Bills
have won five of their last six and the Browns
have dumped six in a roll. Expect the Bills
at home to jump all over rookie QB Luke McCown.
Willis McGahee should have a monster day against
a pathetic Brown run defense. Game Date:
12/12/04 13:00 ET
Bucs
@ Chargers (-5 ) - This game looks much
tougher to handicap after Tampa Bays dismantling
of Atlanta last week. I expect the Bucs to come
back to earth against a Charger squad that has
played inspired football all year. McCardell
will burn his old mates deep and tight end Antonio
Gates is just plain unstoppable.
Game Date: 12/12/04 16:15 ET
Chiefs
( +1.5 ) @ Titans - The Chiefs are finally
getting production from recent first round draft
pick Larry Johnson. Johnson should find room
to roll against the badly dinged Titan defense.
Billy Volek should find plenty to smile about
looking at the pitiful Chief secondary. Take
the Chiefs in a track meet. Game Date: 12/13/04
21:05 ET
WAGERING
SMART MAKES WATCHING NFL GAMES MORE FUN
Good
Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester
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