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Lucky
enjoyed another winning week going 9-7
against the spread and moved to 87-80-6
for the NFL season. Let us jump right in with
the picks, which should prove lucky even in
Week Thirteen!
Bengals(+6.5)
@ Ravens -The Bengals, of all teams, were the
last straw for Butch Davis. After his team gave
up 58 points to Carson Palmer and his Cincy
squad, Butch called it quits. This makes the
Bengals the first team this year to force a
coach to quit, and they will respond in week
13. I guess giving up 58 points to the Bengals
is pretty amazing. The Bengals D shouldn't find
life too difficult against a raw Baltimore offense
that continues to hurt their defense with turnovers
deep in their own territory. The stories all
over the league before last Sunday stated that
Kyle Boller was coming of age, and he's not
just a guy handing the ball off anymore, blah,
blah, blah... Right! He didn't just hand the
ball off against the Cowboys, so what. Last
week his coach wished handing the ball off was
an option. Boller isn't an impressive QB, don't
know if he ever will be. Jamal Lewis hasn't
been great this year, but the Ravens have been
even worse without him. With Lewis being a game
time decision, I have to give the nod to the
Bengals and the 6 points they are getting. Game
Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET
Cardinals
@ Lions(-6) -The Cardinals are an up
and down team this year, unfortunately there
have been too many downs. The Lions have the
same symptoms, losing to Washington and then
barely getting beat by a tough Jaguar team in
OT. Then a tough Viking team barely snuck past
them in week 11. Last week they gave up 6 touchdowns
to Peyton Manning alone, in three quarters.
To put that into perspective, Mike Vick has
11 TD's and he hasn't missed a snap in 11 games.
But all stats aside, the Cards are starting
an un-drafted rookie at running back, and John
Navarre at QB. Combined they have 43 yards of
career offense, all coming from Larry Croom.
If you don't recognize that name, it's okay;
he's the aforementioned rookie running back.
The Lions still have Joey Harrington, Roy Williams,
Kevin Jones, and a defense that has done all
right, except for last week. I expect a better
performance from a turbulent Lion team in week
13. Winning by 6 should be doable. Game Date:
12/05/04 13:00 ET
Titans(+10.5)
@ Colts - This one might get me medically tested
by my employers, but first let me explain. The
Colts kicked the Lions to the curb last week;
getting 6 touchdown passes from their fearless
leader Peyton Manning. The Titans let a good
lead slip away against the Texans, losing against
the team they use to be. (Oilers, Warren Moon,
Run N Shoot... remember?) But that was without
Chris Brown, and McNair is just getting healthy.
Steve played pretty well, and I think he will
dip into his old bag of MVP tricks against a
good Colts team. The Tennessee defense is underrated.
I don't know if their corners can hang with
the trio Manning tosses the pigskin to, but
they aren't a pushover like the Lions were on
Thanks Giving. 10.5 is a ton, and at a huge
underdog to pull the upset, (+450) I might even
take the Titans to defeat pretty horses.
Game Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET
Vikings(-7)
@ Bears - This game is a no-brainer, and I've
already put big money down, just in case the
odds makers come to their senses. I know the
Bears just hired one of the best QB's of all
time, Joe Montana. But even with his amazing
football skill and knowledge, the man is old,
and he can't win games on his own at his age.
Wait. What am I saying? Just in… the Bears
just signed Jeff George, not Montana. Jeff George
hasn't been a winner anywhere, and has been
out of the league just about as long as Joe
Namath. In fact, I'd rather have Namath. This
is how bad it's gotten in Chicago. What is going
on? They aren't going to the playoffs or anything,
and I know damn well Jeff isn't a long-term
answer. So why not start a young fellow and
try to teach him something? This is absurd.
The Bears will get crushed by the Vikings who
are back to full strength with Mr. Moss. Like
I said, I've already taken a lot of action on
this odds makers blunder, I advise you do the
same. Game Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET
Bills(-3.5)
@ Dolphins - The Bills just destroyed the Hawks
last week in Seattle. I've given Drew Bledsoe
a lot of crap this year. I don't see that "slowing
down" any time soon. His methodical style
only got him sacked one time last week, but
in a 38-9 shellacking of the Hawks, Drew managed
a 68 quarterback rating, with 3 interceptions
to his one touchdown. What are the Bills doing?
They are 5-6 and aren't nearly as good as the
playoff teams in the AFC. Drew Bledsoe has been
terrible, yet JP Losman sits on the bench and
watches. Maybe I should run a football team.
I would know well enough to stick my future
QB in when the season is lost for my team, and
all that's left is how good my draft pick will
be. Sure, 9-7 is nice, but not when 7-9 moves
you up 4 spots in the draft. Either way, with
or without our world-class sprinter, Drew Bledsoe,
the Bills should handle the most pathetic team
in the NFL. The Dolphins only hope in winning
is a court case against deserter Ricky Williams,
and that's not looking so good either. In a
season that has forced the resignation of Dave
Wandstedt, seen a top off-season pick up injured
in the preseason, (David Boston, out for the
year) and lost their only pro bowl offensive
player (Williams), I can't see a win coming
even against the Bledsoe led Bills. And it hurts
to say that. Drew might even pad his career
rushing stats. Who knows? Let him loose!
Game Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET
Falcons(+1.5)
@ Buccaneers - What has changed in three weeks
that makes this game any different than it was
in week 10? Oh I see, Atlanta has gone undefeated
and the Bucs just lost to Carolina. That makes
sense.... unbelievable. I want some of the stuff
the odds makers were on this week. The game
is in Tampa Bay, but does that really make anyone
think the Bucs should be favored? Atlanta is
a playoff team, in the weak NFC yes, but the
Bucs aren't a playoff team in any league. Their
running game will be shut down again, and Griese
won't be able to beat the Falcons by himself.
It's games like this that make me think that
somebody is playing a trick on me, like this
week in Tampa the opposing center has to play
QB for the first half. The way I see it, even
then, Vick will play in the second half, still
giving the upper hand to Atlanta. Tampa shouldn't
play with Atlanta, regardless of how erratic
the Falcons are.
Game Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET
49ers
@ Rams(-10.5) - The Rams have been terrible.
Recently they have only beaten the Hawks, who
gave the Rams the game. Bulger has racked up
the most passing yards in the league, but then
again blind deep passes have to be completed
sometimes. When will Mike Martz realize that
he has to run the ball to be successful. He's
been doing this stuff since he won his first
Super Bowl with the Rams. He has a great tandem
with Faulk and rookie Stephen Jackson at his
disposal, yet he continues to let his quarterback
launch the ball aimlessly down field. Fortunately
for the Rams, they are playing the 49ers this
week, which can't even slow down a Bledsoe to
Bledsoe air attack. I take back that the Dolphins
are the most pathetic team in the league. At
least they have an excuse, if not a few. The
Niners decided to start the season with Ken
Dorsey as their backup. They also lost to Miami
last week. Enough said. Even the Rams should
beat the Niners by a couple touchdowns. Game
Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET
Panthers
@ Saints(-1) - The Saints have played
a couple halves of decent ball of late. They
hung with the Falcons a week ago, and three
weeks ago, they beat Kansas City. But, the Broncos
did kill them in week 11. Who knows what the
Saints will play like in week 13. Not Jim Haslett,
that's for sure. That's the thing though; a
Sunday couch warrior like me has the same shot
as God does in a New Orleans prediction. The
Panthers managed to beat Tampa Bay last week
behind another good game from Nick Goings. These
defenses suck, and both the offenses come and
go like Oprah"s cheeks. Honestly, I think
the Saints will jump all over the Panthers this
week, finish the season strong, but not strong
enough to earn a playoff spot. The end of the
season will show promise for a team that has
been "young" for the last 5 years,
and all the sports geniuses will pick them to
win more games in 2005. But that's just my prediction.
Either way, I see a Saints win in New Orleans
on Sunday. Game Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET
Broncos
@ Chargers(-3) - The Chargers fought
off a tough effort from a never say die Kansas
City team in week 12. The Broncos lost to a
dead Raiders team. I'll take the Chargers giving
only 3 at home. The Broncos have been bad on
the road, and San Diego has been good everywhere.
The sensational Antonio Gates should have another
big week. Also look for my main man Ladainian
Tomlinson to reel off a big game. Lets not forget
the crucial ingredient in this game, Drew Brees.
Yeah, it took me a while to actually believe
he was for real, but I have to trust his game
now. He hasn't had the benefit of an awesome
season everyone expected from LT. He has had
to make throws to win games, and he has done
that. He'll do it again against Denver who let
Kerry Collins throw for 339 yards and 4 touchdowns,
in the snow, in Denver. Not Peyton Manning,
Kerry Collins. Game Date: 12/05/04 16:05
ET
Giants(+2)
@ Redskins - The Giants shouldn't be able to
win many games while starting Eli Manning at
QB. But this week will be the exception. The
Redskins are terrible. Their best player, by
far, had 6 carries for 17 yards last week. Clinton
Portis was on the bench for a good part of the
game because the Redskins were behind so early,
that running was out of the question. Tiki Barbar
will get his share of carries, and should break
the 100-yard mark against a good Washington
defense. I'm foreseeing 2 or 3 turnovers from
the Redskins, and that's wishful thinking for
Joe Gibbs. Patrick Ramsey doesn't have NFL talent,
and will soon be written off as just another
screw up by Steve Spurrier. For a team costing
their owner a pretty penny, the Redskins are
downright horrid. Odds makers must know something
I don't.
Game Date: 12/05/04 16:15 ET
Packers(+6)
@ Eagles - The Eagles look really good lately.
But, they played Eli Manning last week, and
took advantage of his rookie mistakes. That
won't happen with Brett Favre playing the way
he is. Brett has been playing like the champion
he is since his slow start. Javon Walker has
shown off the talent that made him a high pick
in the first place. Ahman Green should be back,
but if he isn't Nejah Davenport can obviously
get things done. Terrell Owens and Donovan McNabb
has been a lethal combo, but will slip this
week. McNabb has been too accurate lately, so
I expect a drop off. I'd love to take the Packers
to win in this one for a big pay off, but the
6 points are a nice diaper in case this is a
nail biter, which I imagine it will be.
Game Date: 12/05/04 16:15 ET
Steelers(-3)
@ Jaguars - The Steelers continue to be snubbed
by the odds makers. The Jaguars are a tough
team, but they just lost to the Vikings by 11
and I think the Steelers are better than Minnesota.
That's bad thinking for betting, but this isn't.
The Jaguars haven't been as stout against the
run this year, and the Steelers have the best
rushing attack in the league. Ben Roethlisberger
hasn't had to make plays to win, but I believe
he can. He's got a rocket arm, and is poised
enough to make it happen against a Jacksonville
secondary that can be picked on. Duce Staley
is back this week, and with Bettis backing him
up and getting a bunch of carries, the Steelers
should always have fresh legs on the field.
Pittsburgh also has a D that is just too good
to bet against. Game Date: 12/05/04 20:35
ET
Cowboys
@ Seahawks(-7) - Where have all the Seahawks
gone? In a season that was destined for greatness
the Hawks managed to lose by 29 points to the
Bills, and my favorite, Drew Bledsoe. Matt Hasselbeck
looks horrible, and even the walrus look alike
on the sideline has been huffing and puffing.
Something is wrong in Seattle. There's no doubt
in my mind that this goes deeper than everyone
thinks. I've been burned by the Hawks since
my 3-0 start with them. This week should be
different. Hasselbeck has to realize at some
point that he is way better than he is playing.
Holmgren should decide to just let Matt play
ball, without any dumbing down, and without
giving an absurd amount of carries to Shaun
Alexander. The Cowboys are just flat out bad
on both sides of the ball. Julius Jones won't
find as much yardage as he did against Chicago.
The Hawks have a lot of injuries, but they will
come to play against Dallas. With everything
that has blown up in their faces since they
lost to the Rams in week 4, the Hawks still
have a good bunch of players that could just
come together in adversity, and realize they
still control their own playoff destiny. The
Hawks will beat Dallas, and if they all come
to play, they should really shut them down in
Seattle. Game Date: 12/06/04 21:05 ET
Houston
@ Jets (-7 ) - Chad Pennington is back,
and his team is still headed for the playoffs.
Houston is a mere roadblock in New York's plans.
With Chad back behind center, defenses won't
be able to load up on the run, making life easier
for Curtis Martin to do what he was doing earlier
in the season. Since Pennington's injury something
good has happened in Jetland, Santana Moss has
come alive. If this continues, the Jets become
a favorite to move on. Moss has been disappointing
for the most part, but might pull a presto chango
like he did last year. Either way the Jets should
win easily at home against Houston. Game
Date: 12/05/04 13:00 ET
WAGERING
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Good
Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester
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