Lucky
got it rolling again last week with a sparking
10-5-1 record. This brings me to 78-73-6
for the season. I expect this week's picks to
be easy to digest… well easier then Grandma's
turkey anyway!
Colts(-9.5)
@ Lions - I've got to take the colts against
a week Lions D. And when it comes down to winning
by 10 points, you can only look at it one way.
That's like 7 minutes of Peyton Manning throwing
the ball. Peyton's putting up one of, if not
the biggest year a quarterback has ever had.
His touchdown pace is ahead of Dan Marino's
record of 48. I don't see that slowing down
this week. Thanksgiving will give a good portion
of a turkey to Edgerrin James as well. Edge
comes off a 200+ yard performance last week.
The Lions aren't good enough to keep up with
the Colts offensively. The defenses might be
equally as bad, but no offense in the NFL compares
to the Indianapolis powerhouse set of backs
and receivers. After playing a tough game against
a broken down Viking team, the Lions will be
looking for a big win. But it ain't happening
this week.
Game Date: 11/25/04 12:37 ET
Bears(+3.5)
@ Dallas - At this point I'm almost rooting
for the Cowboys. But I've got to chose who I
think has the better shot. The Bears at +3.5
in a game where 3 might win it seems like a
pretty good bet. Here's my reasoning. I don't
know what everybody else saw with Drew Henson,
but he didn't show me much. He was playing the
toughest defense in the league, but all this
hype is ridiculous. He is facing Craig Krenzel
who, and thank God, finally lost a game after
3 straight wins. Last week I said the Cowboy
D could even make Kyle Boller look like a good
quarterback. This week, ummm, well Craig led
his college team to a National Title. Craig
Krenzel's quarterback rating is skimming the
bottom of the league, but this week I'm guessing
it doubles. Now, 60 isn't much better then 30,
but it's worth 3.5 points, especially against
a pathetic Cowboy team starting a guy who was
batting .200 and playing a third base for a
minor league team a year ago. Game Date:
11/25/04 16:15 ET
Ravens
@ Patriots(-7) - The Patriots are just
flat out better than The Ravens. Chris McAllister
comes back this week, but the Patriots should
still put up enough points to beat a Raven team
minus Jamal Lewis. I would just put Ray Lewis
at running back and watch him destroy fellow
linebackers, but The Ravens never listen to
my requests. Chester Taylor won't keep 8 Patriots
in the box, so Boller's life suddenly gets more
difficult. He's no Joe Montana with single coverage
all day either. A tough Pat zone should limit
his effectiveness from a week ago. In an important
game for The Ravens, New England will do what
they've done 24 times out of their last 25 attempts,
and win. Winning by a touchdown seems like the
best bet here. Game Date: 11/28/04 16:15
ET
Eagles(-7)
@ Giants - Once again we have a rookie QB who
came in and did all right last week. Now everyone
has been saying how much promise Eli showed
against the Falcons. No one seems to pay attention
to Jack around here I guess. The Falcons have
the worst pass defense in the league. Eli threw
for a 162 yards on 17-37 passing, with one TD
and two picks. I guess Ryan Leaf showed promise
too. Don't get me wrong, but Eli isn't ready
to make a difference yet. The Eagles, who cause
turnovers with the best of them, will pick Eli
multiple times, sack him often. This will be
a laugher by the 3rd. The Giants D won't slow
the Green Machine. Donovan and bunch will have
an easy time facing a D without their leader.
Game Date: 11/28/04 13:00 ET
Redskins
@ Steelers(-10.5) - For the first time
this year, a Redskin spread looks reasonable.
But am I going to take them? No chance in hell.
The Steelers don't put up big numbers, but their
defense is stout. The Redskins offense is blinding.
I'm not talking their speed either. My eyes
seriously hurt watching Patrick Ramsey run a
team. The Redskins have managed to make Clinton
Portis look bad, which hasn't happened since...
well ever. Pittsburgh has a good thing going
here, and if the Redskins put an end to that
I will be stunned. I'm not talking The Chargers
in playoff contention stunned, I'm talking Drew
Bledsoe returning a punt, breaking seven tackles
while sprinting 100 yards for a touchdown stunned.
Game Date: 11/28/04 13:00 ET
Browns(+6)
@ Bengals - The Bengals put up a good game against
what I'd say is the most complete team in the
league. But, they haven't beaten anybody, besides
Denver. The Browns can pretty much say the same,
but they've been robbed time and time again.
It just seems like Butch Davis walked under
a bridge of ladders before he started coaching
the expansion Browns. Every draft pick has been
injured for extended periods. That includes
Kellen Winslow Jr this year. They are tough
though. The Jets only beat them by 3. The Eagles
went to OT to beat them. All year they've been
in games. The Browns beat the Bengals 34-17
in week 6 in Cincinnati. The Bengals have been
a little better of late, but 6 point favorites?
I don't think so.
Game Date: 11/28/04 13:00 ET
Jaguars
@ Vikings(-6) - This game marks the return
of two important players, one for each team.
Randy Moss makes his return for the Vikings,
which should do everything to boost their confidence.
But, Byron Leftwich comes back early for the
Jaguars as well. I'm not sure who's more important
for their respective teams. I guess we'll see
Sunday. The Jaguars play close football every
week. They should have a tough time stopping
Culpepper with his main weapon back in action.
I've got to take a Vikings team that looked
unstoppable with Randy in the lineup earlier
this year.
Game Date: 11/28/04 13:00 ET
Buccaneers(-2.5)
@ Panthers - The Panthers looked great last
week. But they were just playing Arizona. Nick
Goings, yes that's right, Nick Goings ran all
over the field, mostly forward, scoring three
times. I'm guessing this won't happen against
Tampa Bay. Brian Griese should continue his
impressive quarterbacking for the Bucs though.
He's going up against a defense that has been
shredded by injuries. In fact the offense has
felt it as well. I mean, Nick Goings scored
three times for God's sake. Neither of these
teams is impressive, but the Bucs will use a
solid rushing attack led by Michael Pittman.
Game Date: 11/28/04 13:00 ET
Chargers(+3) @ Kansas City - The Chiefs
continue to be rated as if their team is as
good as it was last year. They aren't. The Chargers
on the other hand have beaten the spread so
much this year; betters everywhere are paying
the price. (I know all about it) Lately I've
ridden the Drew Brees bandwagon. He's been good,
but that's not the only reason. I'm real sick
of "Big" football writers dropping
articles about how Brees is going to be traded
next year. What a dumb idea. I mean, don't put
it past the Chargers organization, but how stupid
can they be? Brees has turned into more than
they had hoped, but now they want to start all
over with Phillip Rivers. I hope they do. It's
too nice in San Diego anyway. On Sunday Brees
will run his team up and down the field against
The Chiefs. LT, who is back, looked dominating
against The Raiders last week. This week will
be no different. The main thing is, The Chargers
have a solid D. It isn't the Charger D from
a year ago. I'll take the Chargers to win here;
I can't see them needing the 3 points. Game
Date: 11/28/04 13:00 ET
Titans
@ Texans(+1.5) - Houston let a big win
slip out of their grasp last week against Green
Bay. David Carr needs to step it up as he did
earlier in the year. He isn't a rookie anymore,
someone needs to tell him that. He's got big
weapons in André Johnson and Dominic
Davis. Carr is fast, has a big arm, and is accurate.
The Titans team, who virtually has nothing to
play for, beat The Jags last week. The Texans,
an underdog at home, should prove to be more
than Tennessee can handle. Carr will get back
on track this week against a solid Titan D.
Game Date: 11/28/04 13:00 ET
Saints
@ Falcons(-9.5) - Joe Horn made it clear
two weeks ago that the Saints weren't dead yet.
Thanks for clearing that up last week guys.
All I needed was a 34-13 beating in New Orleans
to make things a little more visible. Regardless,
Aaron Brooks has gotten the short end of the
stick against his cousin. Vick has outplayed,
and more importantly beaten Aaron on a number
of occasions. Vick, T. J. Ducket, and Warrick
Dunn should run all over the Saints, everyone
else does. Brooks and crew, who find it more
convenient to step up when things no longer
matter, will be tempted to play well in Atlanta.
But temptation is one thing, actually stepping
up and beating a much better Falcon team is
another. Deuce McAllister, who has been average
or less all year, will find little room to roam
against a tough Atlanta rush defense. The Saints
are unpredictable, but bad enough for a lopsided
defeat against Atlanta.
Game Date: 11/28/04 16:05 ET
Jets(-3)
@ Arizona - The Jets are a good team, with or
without Chad Pennington. The Cards lost to The
Panthers 35-10, which means they aren't as competitive
as earlier in the year. The Jets will feed Curtis
Martin the ball. Curtis skipped past the 1000-yard
mark last week. What a ball player! This spread
baffles me, it really does. With a stubborn,
good defense, and a solid offense, the Jets
should win without trouble. Game Date: 11/28/04
16:15 ET
Bills @ Seahawks(-5) - The Hawks have
been playing lackadaisical football. The Bills
have won two of their last three, no slouches
either. They beat the Jets three weeks ago,
and the Rams last week. The Hawks just slipped
by Miami, and have looked nothing like the Super
Bowl contender I thought they would be this
year. But, times change. This is the weekend
the Hawks pick it up. Jerry Rice is starting,
which is always great. Hasselbeck should be
back this week. I'm thinking the week off helped
him a little. Shaun Alexander continues to lead
the league in rushing. Props to Drew though.
I give him a hard time; mainly because he's
the slowest man on the face of the earth, but
he put up 3 TD's last week in a big win (every
time they win, Dallas' draft pick gets worse
and worse). This week shouldn't end up with
a W in the win column for Buffalo. The Hawks
will be back! Game Date: 11/28/04 16:15 ET
Raiders
@ Denver(-11) - The Raiders had a big
performance last week, but lost again. Denver
slaughtered the Saints by giving the ball to
Reuben Droughns time and time again. The Raiders
are a terrible run-stopping unit. Look for Droughns
to get upwards of 200 yards against Oakland.
Anytime running comes easy, Denver glides to
victory, especially in Denver. Oakland has little
chance to do anything worthwhile in this one.
Denver's D was tough last week. They will be
good here too. Game Date: 11/28/04 20:35
ET
Rams
@ Packers(-6) - The Pack snuck past a
resilient Texan team last week. But they got
the Victory. The Rams... well Drew Bledsoe played
a hand in their defeat. I don't know if it had
anything to do with his 3 rushes for -2 yards,
but I'm willing to guess the Rams game planned
against his swift feet. The Rams will get beat
again this week playing too far from home. Green
Bay is no turf field. The Rams are a tough bunch
to figure out. They've lost to Buffalo and Miami.
(You were wondering who gave Miami a win weren't
you?) But, they've beat good teams as well.
This week, they'll lose. I'm thinking big. Brett
is at the top of his game, which is great to
see. His receivers have been fantastic. The
Packer D is starting to play well, which bodes
well for their playoff hopes. Green Bay, no
problem.
Game Date: 11/29/04 21:05 ET
Miami
@ San Francisco - Pick em! This one comes
down to a coin toss and I'll take tails... 49ers
it is! Game
Date: 11/28/04 16:15 ET
WAGERING
SMART MAKES WATCHING NFL GAMES MORE FUN
Good
Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester
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