Those who have followed my work over the years know that I’m not real big on betting the Trojans to cover. I often do a good job of searching out value bets against top programs, and going against USC has been good for me over the years. But not this time. Even playing in Hawaii, in the first week of a new season, under a new coach, after all the sanctions and problems and graduations and former players headed toward NFL paychecks – this is still going to be a blowout.

Don’t get it twisted, the sanctions imposed on USC won’t destroy their talent base. Year in and year out, the Trojans stockpile talent as well as any team in college football. They may have lost Pete Carrol, sure, but it’s not like Lane Kiffin lacks the ability to recruit. This guy was pulling in 5-star skill players five-minutes into his hiring at Tennessee. He’s a salesman, no doubt about it. And while I wouldn’t want my kid to play for that snake, there are plenty of elite players headed to USC after Lane ran his pitch.

I know Hawaii should be a little better this season, but they were destroyed by any “good” team on their schedule last season. Fresno State (42-17), Boise State (54-9), and Wisconsin (51-10) all had their way with the Warriors, a team that hasn’t been the same since June Jones sailed off into the horizon. USC returns a very good young quarterback, a case of elite physical studs on both sides of the ball, and a coaching staff that knows what they’re doing. I hope the Warriors can slam the door on Lane’s first win at USC, but I don’t think this one will be even close. Take the Trojans by three touchdowns.

#14 USC Trojans (-21) @ Hawaii Warriors

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USC Trojans @ Hawaii Warriors: Week 1 Pick & Preview originally appeared on Lucky Lester Football Picks on September 2, 2010. Remember you can also Tweet This.

The Utes may have lost some of their key cogs from last years’ 10-3 team, but Utah is an elite football program (yeah, you heard me) and they should be favored to win at home (and they are). Now Pitt comes in with some big time players ready to make big time plays. Dion Lewis is one of the most dynamic offensive players in the nation, and so is physical specimen Jonathan Baldwin, the ultra talented receiving for the Panthers.

The questions for Pittsburgh come at quarterback, on the defensive side of the ball and up front on the offensive line.

The Utes don’t have many question marks. They return their leading rusher, leading passer, and most of a defense that finished 19th in the Nation in total yards allowed, and 23rd in total points given up. Last year was a “rebuilding year” for the Utes, and they showed how awesome their program has become by stomping through most of their season and finishing with a double digit win total once again. This year, those same youngsters are back, and they are ready to mess things up in the Pre-Season Top 25 right off the bat.

A strong offensive line, a very good defense, a young quarterback with a year under his belt, and plenty of weapons to use – that sounds like a good team to me. The Utes haven’t lost at home since Week 2 three seasons ago – as solid as Pitt is, there’s too many questions there for me to go against a very good home team.

#15 Pittsburgh Panthers @ Utah Utes (-2.5)

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Pittsburgh Panthers VS Utah Utes: Free College Football Picks originally appeared on Lucky Lester Football Picks on September 2, 2010. Remember you can also Tweet This.

What can I say? I like what the Packers have done in the pre-season, not only with their first team (a group that won’t see much tick against the Chiefs) but with their second team as well. They have come in with that same aggressive approach, but with more running – and honestly, that’s what the starters should do to be more consistent – but that’s a coaching thing.

I like Matt Flynn, he’s been steady in the pre-season thus far, completing a high percentage of passes and keeping drives going by eliminating negative plays. He knows that one of his best weapons is going to be his running back, and Brandon Jackson has been running as good as ever. This team always drafts great, so they are stacked with talent – especially at receiver. If the 2nd string guys play a half, that’s two big time playmakers in James Jones and Jordy Nelson – there are teams that would trade their starters for those two guys straight up.

Defensively, the Packers might be a little shallow in this game – the starters won’t see much time, if any at all, and the team is hurting on that side of the ball a little anyway.

But that’s just thinking about the Packers – the Chiefs have been better, but they aren’t good. They are running the ball well, but KC’s quarterbacks just don’t take chances – that seems like a bad way to beat the Packers. KC is 0-3 so far this pre-season, and while they might give that extra effort to win a game (something they won’t do much of this season) – it’s hard for me to believe they’ll risk the health of their small speed-backs or Thomas Jones. So take their strength away and put them up against the Packs’ 2nd stringers. I don’t like their chances.

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

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Green Bay Packers VS Kansas City Chiefs: NFL Free Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Football Picks on September 2, 2010. Remember you can also Tweet This.

I’m not real big on picking pre-season games, but for every single game ever played I’ve thought to myself, “Who has the best chance at winning?” Over the last handful of years I’ve changed from just winning to “how about that spread?” Even in the pre-season, I have an opinion – and rarely is it because one team is better than the other. If you pick the “better team” throughout the pre-season, you’ll likely be in the red before the regular season even starts. It’s week 4, a week where even fewer teams play their best players than usual. So I take that into account, here’s my thought process for picking the Steelers with a big spread.

The Steelers are the more aggressive team, both defensively and offensively, and the Panthers are pretty soft up front. Advantage Steelers.

This game will likely come down to who can run the ball and who can stop the ball. Pittsburgh doesn’t have an awesome run game, but it’s solid. The Panthers can’t stop the run. Advantage Pittsburgh.

The Panthers can run the ball as well as anyone, but… Neither of their stud RB tandem will play in this one, and the Steelers have always been great at shutting down their opponent’s rushing attack. Advantage Steelers.

The Steelers have Big Ben (who might very well play more than a series or two, because he might as well get his time in now seeing as though he’s going to miss 2-6 games to start the season because he was an idiot/jerk/moron/insert favorite expression), Dennis Dixon, and Byron Leftwich. All three are definitely capable.  The Panthers have Matt Moore, a rookie, and another guy you aren’t sold on. Me neither. None of those guys have the arm, confidence, or experience to make aggressive teams pay for being aggressive. Advantage Pittsburgh.

Yeah, I’ll take Pittsburgh.

Carolina Panthers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)

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Carolina Panthers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Preseason Week 4 Picks originally appeared on Lucky Lester Football Picks on September 2, 2010. Remember you can also Tweet This.

The Thundering Herd return one of the top defensive fronts in their conference, and while that won’t necessarily give them a shot to topple #2 ranked OSU, it should keep them within covering distance of the favored Buckeyes. They stop the run pretty well, and return some big timer players in terms of rushing the passer, like senior linebacker, Mario Harvey.

Where they struggle is in the secondary, but that won’t likely hurt them too bad against the Buckeyes. OSU can throw it, but they are a run-first team, without a doubt. With a puttering offense last season, the Herd still managed to stay in the Top half in terms of points against, allowing a shade over 24 per game. The Buckeyes’ defense is legit, and they will shut down the Herd for most of the day – I don’t doubt that. I just don’t see Ohio State putting up enough points to cover the 4 touchdown spread over a pretty solid Marshall team.

Doc Holliday is the new coach up at Marshall, and his pedigree as an assistant speaks for itself. Given his first shot at his own team, I think he gets his guys to come out and play with a sense of confidence out of the gate. They have some homerun hitters in the backfield, and a couple scores could seal the spread just like that. Marshall’s defense is primed to put up a fight against Ohio State’s strengths – that’s a recipe for a cover.

Marshall Thundering Herd (+28.5) @ #2 Ohio State Buckeyes

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Marshall Thundering Herd @ Ohio State Buckeyes: Free Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Football Picks on September 1, 2010. Remember you can also Tweet This.

I think this is a nice one early in the season. South Carolina hasn’t been in the business of blowing teams out in a long time, and I don’t know why they’d start down that path this Thursday. Southern Miss can put up points quick, and they are battle tested after numerous close contests in 2009.

The Golden Eagles finished the regular season 7-5 before losing 32-42 to Middle Tennessee State in their Bowl Game. In their 6 losses last season, only one was by more than 10 points, and not once did they lose by more than 13. This team has plenty of fight. Southern Miss is better than advertised, if they have been advertised at all. They have some stud athletes that put up points against every team they meet, finishing in the top 20 in points scored last season, nearly 33 per game.

The Gamecocks struggled to put points on the board last season, mostly relying on their powerful defense to win games in one of college’s toughest divisions – the SEC. The Gamecocks have gone through a tumultuous camp, losing some key players to injuries (like their leading tackler) and dealing with suspensions for a few other key players.

It’s not like a team to overlook their week 1 opponent, but South Carolina could get caught looking forward to Georgia on September 11th. Either way, the Golden Eagles play tough-nosed football, and the Gamecocks haven’t shown me that they are a team to thump a solid opponent. I like the dogs again, here!

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (+14) @ South Carolina Gamecocks

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Southern Miss Golden Eagles VS South Carolina Gamecocks Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Football Picks on September 1, 2010. Remember you can also Tweet This.

I like the Bills, because they are still trying to find their identity, and don’t have any stars to sit and rest before the regular season starts – they can’t be wasting time like that – so they’ll play their guys and covering a 4.5 in the pre-season when your starters are playing more snaps seems like a solid chance. Plus, the Lions are far from amazing.

Buffalo may have their starter figured out, and that is probably Trent Edwards, but it’s not like the position is his to keep forever – the Bills are a work in progress, and besides C.J. Spiller, they are probably willing to give everybody on their roster an extra look going into the pre-season. This is also a new coaching staff in Buffalo, so they need to use as much time as they are given to put in their new schemes. That’s just another reason to play your starters a little bit longer on Thursday Night.

The Lions have had a solid pre-season, seeing explosive football out of Jahvid Best, nice passing from the young sophomore quarterback, Matthew Stafford, and getting their WRs and TEs some solid looks. Defensively, the Lions have looked improved. They have some versatility in the front 7, and Mr. Suh looks to be every bit the stud they drafted #2 in this years’ draft.

I full expect the Lions to put up some points early, especially if the starters get a couple series – but the Bills will end up on top in this one, or at least covering that 5.5 point spread.

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Detroit Lions

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Buffalo Bills VS Detroit Lions: PreSeason NFL Free Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Football Picks on August 31, 2010. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Every guy in fantasy does something in terms of predicting the future. That’s what you do when you pick Chris Johnson over Adrian Peterson or Mike Williams over Mike Williams… err… that last one is tough to read. Anyway, you get me, you could just be following some dink’s rankings, or you could be using them as a guideline – regardless, at the end of the season you can always see how your predictions ended up. Last year, it was easy to see that Anthony Gonzalez and Eddie Royal didn’t blow up the world like I thought they would, and my fantasy squads suffered. The tough thing about being a sportswriter, aside from the obvious ribbing you take from your friends about how you don’t have a real job, is that your predictions are right there for everyone to see. If you’re a responsible cat like myself, you even do reviews so readers don’t have to look hard to find the true outcome. Last year, as I said above, my pre-season predictions weren’t right on the ball. But this year, oh yes – there is always a new year, I’m swinging for the fences and you can bet your biscuit that I’m making contact. Jump in, buckle up, we’re going for a ride!

Below are 21 Predictions (for my black-jack junky friends out there, this one’s for you!) for the upcoming fantasy season. Some are wild, some are sure, but they are all predictions that can be used against me in a court of fantasy law. These predictions go everywhere from the window to the wall! Lets play some football!

1. LaDainian Tomlinson rushes for more yards than he did last season as San Diego’s #1 running back. The Jets’ line is legit, and LT can still run with a egg-shaped ball.

2. Brett Favre calls an end to a few streaks: His consecutive start streak will end, his last pass won’t be an interception, and he won’t come back ever, ever again when this season is done – so enjoy one of the last real cowboys!

3. Shonn Greene will have at least 7-100 yard games, and rush for at least 10 touchdowns. Why? The guy is a beast, and his offensive line is one of if not the best in football.

4. Sam Bradford will throw more touchdowns than interceptions, which would be nuts for a rookie QB on a bad team with limited help at receiver. He’s gonna be good, folks.

5. Either Peyton Manning or Drew Brees won’t finish as a Top 5 fantasy QB. I know it’s crazy to think that, the Colts have been so good and the Saints look unstoppable – but the NFC South is crazy, and the Saints have one of the easiest schedules in football (which means less passing, you’d think) and the Texans, Titans, and even the Jaguars are much improved, making it tougher on Manning. Some king has to stumble.

6. Mike Sims-Walker will finish the season as a Top 10 fantasy receiver. People go either way on Mike, either you love him or you hate him. He wasn’t a beacon of consistency in 2009, but remember, he wasn’t even a starter out of the gates, and was showing his stuff for the first time.

7. Mike Bush will double Darren McFadden’s fantasy numbers. He’s better, and the Raiders are starting to realize it.

8. Terrell Owens > Chad Ochocinco in 2010. Draft accordingly.

9. Have you ever watched Percy Harvin play football? If not, you’re missing out. That guy gives more migraines than he gets, I’ll tell you that much. I think he plays in 16 games this season, and catches at least 76 balls for over 1100 yards and racks up at least 8 touchdowns – and blocks the snot out of 100 unsuspecting defensive backs.

10. Wes Welker ends up with more fantasy production than Brandon Marshall. In other words, don’t draft Brandon.The Patriots throw it like a hot potato, the Dolphins run like Forrest. I wouldn’t worry too much about Welker’s health, if anybody is back to 100% quick, it’s that guy.

11. Greg Jennings is worth his price in Gold. The Packers’ receivers are really good – but Greg is the best of the bunch. His stats didn’t show it last year, they will this year. Stick him in the Top 7 right now.

12. Larry Fitzgerald will finish outside of the Top 10 WRs. So don’t draft him – even if you’re in a dynasty league, I’m telling you – let somebody else draft him, then go ahead and trade for him when that owner is crying and doing anything to salvage his season. I was once high on Leinart, now I’m backing off, but either way, teams will be doubling the bejeezers out of Fitzy.

13. Rashard Mendenhall is one of the few true #1 running backs in the NFL. That’s why he sneaks into the Top 7 RBs this season.

14. What do you get when you cross a donkey with moron? You get a quarterback that will miss the first 4 games of the season and still finish in the Top 15 amongst his own position.

15. Don’t be confused, there is nobody worth starting in Cleveland. I’m not kidding, not one guy on that team will finish in the Top 20 at his respective position. That’s rare, but it’s going to be true.

16. One of the highest paid QBs in the NFL, Eli Manning, will finally finish in the Top 10 amongst QBs. I’m not a fan of Eli, mostly his stupid face, but with Smith, Nicks, Manningham, Bradshaw, and Kevin Boss – and a tough schedule that will have him throwing early and often – Eli gets in the Top 10 for the first time.

17. Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, and Jeremy Maclin (all sophomores) will, as a threesome, easily outscore Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, and Chad Ochocinco (unless Chad changes his name back to Johnson, then he has a chance to turn this whole thing around). Nicks and Harvin both become #1s this season while Maclin’s elite touchdown scoring ability goes wild under Kolb’s arm.

18. Johnny Knox, currently ranked 38th on ESPN.com, finished the year above half the people rated above him. Two names put together to form an odd looking guy with no respect for turnovers – Mike Martz. It might not make the Bears win, but it will make Knox go wild.

19. I’m gonna go on ahead and say that Anquan Boldin finishes with more fantasy points than Larry Fitzgerald. I know, I know, 50 people have already wrote me telling me I’m crazy, and 20 of those have always said that Boldin is nothing but a #2 WR. You’ll be eating them, folks, not me.

20. Zach Miller, Devin Aromashodu, Nate Burleson, Vince Young, Laurent Robinson – all guys ranked out of the Top 100 and I’m betting 4 of the 5 finish in the Top 100.

21. Tom Brady returns to the #1 spot amongst QBs. Yeah, Brees won’t throw as much this year – Manning has a little bit more in the run-game, and Aaron Rodgers’ Packers need to run it more to be consistent. Brady is going to throw 40 touchdowns again – because he can.

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Fantasy Football Predictions: From the Window to the Wall! originally appeared on Lucky Lester Football Picks on August 30, 2010. Remember you can also Tweet This.

I got another good email from a reader, David, and the answers can certainly help you with your fantasy drafts this coming weekend… So here it is, an excerpt from my Email conversation with David. For all your football questions, both fantasy and reality, write to papaweimer50@hotmail.com.

If I can’t get a top 7 QB what are my options? Could you give 2 or 3 QB combos that could help me out?

If you don’t get a Top 7 guy, I would go with upside with two quarterback slots. Jay Cutler is in a big time passing offense with Mike Martz, kevin Kolb has the same deal with the Eagles, Ben Roethlisberger is slipping way down drafts because he’s missing 2-6 games those are 3 guys you might want to target as a tag team QB duo that could really produce like a Top 7 guy.

David Garrard, Carson Palmer, and Joe Flacco are 3 other guys that I would consider – though all have their scary sides (Flacco is the biggest sure thing in my opinion).

If I can’t get a top TE, which 2 or 3 of these guys could be my man and why?
(Winslow, Cooley, Shiancoe, Z Miller, H Miller, J Carlson)

I really liike Winslow, Cooley, Shiancoe, and Zach Miller. I don’t know about Heath Miller, I worry about him matching last year’s high in production – but with Santonio Holmes gone, Miller might get more targets. Carlson is a nice talent, and Pete Carol’s offense likes TEs, but I don’t know how much I’d want a secondary Seahawk target. Winslow is the most talented pass catcher of that bunch, a go-to-guy, which is nice to have at the TE spot – you know he’ll be getting looks. But he’s in Tampa and is an injury concern.

Cooley is in a new offense, but McNabb loves TEs and Chris is probably the best receiving option in Washington, something to like a lot about that. Also Shanny’s offense seems to appreciate the big pass catchers.

Shiancoe gets Favre back and loses Sydney Rice. That might put a little more attention from defenses into Visanthe’s direction, but it will also get him more looks – likely.

Zach Miller is great after the catch, a very impressive TE but he plays in Oakland. Like Cooley and Winslow, he’s probably the best receiver on his team – now it’s just believing in Campbell or not.

The other night my buddy and I were discussing it, and we both thought Shiancoe and Zach Miller had the best chance of breaking into LuckyLester’s Top Tier at TE – however, Cooley and Winslow are in my top tier – it’s a tough call, and they are all close. And Shiancoe moves into my top tier now with Brett back – I would say all four are pretty safe bets.

What 2 or 3 Def would be a sneaky good play (Sleeper) the first and 2nd week of the season?

The Giants aren’t getting much love and should be a lot better defensively, they play the Panthers in Week 1. San Diego and Miami get KC and Buffalo, both are pretty good match-ups as well.

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Ask Papa Weimer: Elite Fantasy Football Advice originally appeared on Lucky Lester Football Picks on August 28, 2010. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Washington Redskins
(+2550) – Odds to Win the Super Bowl
(Over 7.5, -125: Under 7.5, +105) – Over/Under Total Wins
(+145) – Odds to Win Division

No team has had a bigger off-season turnover in terms of excitement. Rather that will translate to wins or not is a good question, but nobody can argue about the off-season hype train that is still chugging along in Washington. First it was Mike Shanahan taking over for Jim Zorn, a move that most certainly has some upside for Redskins’ fans. Shanny, or Splinter (as I call him), had heaps of success in Denver, taking the Broncos to 2 Super Bowls, plenty of playoff appearances, and a plethora of impressive rushing attacks. Then there was Donovan McNabb’s trade to Washington. Suddenly the Redskins had a coach and quarterback tandem with a resume of success at this level – something they haven’t had in years. But that doesn’t mean they’re going to jump to the top of one of the best divisions in football. I’m sure the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants have something to say about that. There’s still plenty of question marks in Washington. How about that offensive line? It doesn’t look great – but can Shanahan’s cut/zone blocking scheme make that group better? It’s very possible. Defensively, the Redskins were actually pretty solid. They finished 8th against the pass and 16th against the run, which is pretty good considering how little they moved the ball offensively. The Redskins were in a lot of games last year despite winning just 4. They lost only 3 games by more than 10 points. Five of their losses were by 3 points or less. Will Splinter and McNabb make a touchdown difference in Washington? It wouldn’t be crazy to think so, and this team is very talented (even if they are getting old). I wouldn’t risk much on the Redskins, but I don’t think they’re much of a bet on either side of the winning wagers. They have close to a 50-50 to win at least 8 games, but that’s the only wager I’d even consider if I was putting money down on the Skins. In the end, I like the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles more than I like Washington – so 7 or less looks like the better win total to me.

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Washington Redskins Betting Tips: 2010 NFL Team Preview originally appeared on Lucky Lester Football Picks on August 27, 2010. Remember you can also Tweet This.