Free Football Picks Review for Week 17 Against The Spread Predictions: 12-4, what an ending to the season! Over the last two weeks I was 24-8 to really climb some points in my final season stats. I’ll post a “Final Season Review” later in the week if I can get my life together. I’ll give you a preview, I was a winner! But you know that. Here’s the Regular season’s final week in review.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-3) (Win)
The Patriots sat their starting wide receiver duo, one of their young tight ends, and limited action to a couple of other guys. They still dropped close to 40 on the Dolphins. Tom played. Pats won their 14th game. That’s a lot of wins.
Cincinnati Bengals (+10.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (Win)
The Bengals stayed close throughout, and came up a couple yards short of beating the Ravens. The game ended up meaning nothing to Baltimore, but the Bengals showed their talent, then showed why they won 4 games.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (-3) (Win)
Joe Webb wasn’t at his Eagle-beating best, and the Vikings just didn’t do nearly enough offensively to beat the Lions. Just as I suspected, the Lions stacked the line of scrimmage and made Webb beat them. He didn’t. Watch out for Detroit next season.
Buffalo Bills (+1) @ New York Jets (Loss)
The Bills played without Fitzpatrick. They lost terribly. Even with many of the Jets starters taking the day off. Twas an embarrassing end of the season for a team that played very well at times.
Oakland Raiders (+4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (WIN)
The Raiders and Chiefs were close for much of the game, but a big Michael Bush touchdown run gave the Raiders a 17-10 lead in the 2nd half, and KC never recovered. The Raiders won big. Now I hear that Tom Cable will be let go at the end of the season – if that’s the case, somebody has to poor water on Al Davis’s extension cord that keeps him ticking. Cable gets the Raiders to 8-8 and gets the ax. All time dumb move.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns (WIN)
The Steelers won easily against the Browns. They started out with big plays and ran the ball hard throughout – defensively, the Steelers are a terrible match-up for run-first teams that can’t beat them deep.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5) @ New Orleans Saints (WIN)
The Bucs ended the season strong, beating the Saints but coming up just short in the tie-breaker world. That’s okay, I realized how many rookies play a prominent role for the Bucs – they’ll be in the playoffs for many years, if not next year, for about 5 years after that they’ll be money.
New York Giants (-4) @ Washington Redskins (Loss)
The Redskins just did enough to give the Giants the win and still get close enough to give me the loss. I would have taken either or. Maybe this is part of the reason why I hate the Giants – I must admit, however, I’m getting weak spot for Tom Coughlin.
San Diego Chargers (-3) @ Denver Broncos (WIN)
The Chargers just barely held off Tim Tebow and the Broncos. Tim needs to play well from the start, but if he keeps finishing games like he has been, the Broncos are going to be in good hands with the former Gator. The Chargers’ special teams almost got them again, but they won by 4.
Dallas Cowboys (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (WIN)
The Cowboys won by a point in Philadelphia in a game that was borderline unwatchable. I know that the RedZone channel spent about 39 seconds covering the game in Philadelphia. But hey, it’s nice to get wins any way I can, ugly or beautiful.
Chicago Bears (+10) @ Green Bay Packers (WIN)
The Bears came to play, even though they had nothing to win. It’s awesome when a team’s interest in keeping their opponent out of the playoffs becomes more important than rest. Still, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers wouldn’t be denied, and they’ll be playing football next week in the playoffs.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-6) (WIN)
Whew. The Cardinals sure stink. San Francisco straight dominated the Cardinals from start to finish, it was a little glimpse into what 49er fans were hoping for when the season started.
Tennessee Titans (+10.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (WIN)
The Titans damn-near beat the Colts, and it’s not because Indy didn’t come to play or that the Titans are a good team, it’s because the Colts aren’t that good. Every time the Colts would do something good, the Titans would come right back and match them – until the end, of course, because they lost by 3.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) @ Houston Texans (Loss)
Yuck. I warned you in today’s write-up, hopefully you took my advice and left this game alone. Houston doubled up the Jaguars – but then again, it’s always tough when your best player (MJD) and starting quarterback aren’t playing in your most important game.
St. Louis Rams (-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (Loss)
The Hawks won. If you were there to see this game on TV, you definitely saw a lot of what Seattle fans would call “Steeler-Super Bowl-Calls” go the way of the Hawks. But the Rams didn’t deserve to win. Their game plan was way too conservative, especially against a bad Hawks secondary. When they did test the Hawks, receivers were open, but they just dropped the ball. Seattle’s D played tough, but their run game was the thing that gave them the victory. Quarterback controversy for Week 1?
NFL Week 16 Review – Week 16 2010 NFL Free Picks Review: 12-4, just like that. The Vikings not only covered that mammoth Tuesday Night spread, but they won outright in Philadelphia, stunning the masses (and me, honestly) and quite possibly giving Leslie Frazier the head job going into next season? Speculation, of course, I don’t have sources – but it’s a win like that that keeps you employed. Speaking of keeping someone employed, after .500 (ish) week after week lately, my 12-4 mark really moved me up the charts. Got to love it! Here’s the review.
Carolina Panthers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14) (WIN)
This one might have been tougher than it should have been. It was a close game early (and I don’t mean at the kickoff), but the Steelers easily handled the Panthers and a couple touchdowns wouldn’t stand in the way of a win for the favorites.
Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (Loss)
Don’t know what to say about this one. The Cardinals beat the Cowboys. I guess I could have seen it a little bit after the Redskins nearly got Dallas last week, but Arizona? I mean, the Cardinals lost to the Panthers last week…
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5) (WIN)
The Titans are bad, and playing for nothing – the Chiefs were playing for the playoffs. It looked like that kind of combination as KC did everything well on way to a big and easy victory.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Cleveland Browns (WIN)
It wasn’t too pretty, but it hardly is in the AFC North. The Ravens won by 10 on the road, but it’s not like it came down to the wire. Derrick Mason caught a Joe Flacco TD pass right near the beginning of the 3rd quarter (after an failed Cleveland onside kick I believe) and that was the last scoring of the game on either side.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (+9) (Loss)
The Bills weren’t good enough to play with the best team in football. Weird. The Bills play close a lot, but New England is on another level right now, and it will take them beating themselves to lose from here on out.
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears (-1) (WIN)
The Bears won. It was close, the Jets’ defense made some big plays, the Bears special teams made some big plays, there were some dropped passes – Mark Sanchez played great early, so-so late, and Cutler had some really nice throws as he had plenty of time with no Jets pass rush at all. I think the Bears owe a lot to Matt Forte, who did a lot with his 19 carries, 113 yards and a touchdown to be exact, and 4 catches for 56 yards as well. Big game win for the Bears.
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams (-2) (WIN)
The Rams were better than the 49ers. Steven Jackson got shut down for the most part, but Sam Bradford was great. This big win will do wonders for his confidence next week in the “loser out” game in Seattle. Hawks fans should be even more worried than they already are. This game (among other things) cost Mike Singletary his job in San Fran, and as one of his biggest fans, it was probably justified.
Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Miami Dolphins (WIN)
The Lions won outright in Miami in a crazy game. Fear the Lion, I’m telling you, they won games with 3 quarterbacks this season, and they have a ton of young talent on that team. Expect at least twice as many wins next season out of them.
San Diego Chargers (-7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (Loss)
The Chargers not only failed to cover, but without the Bengals’ two most popular players (Chad and Terrell) Carson Palmer looked like the young guy that was supposed to be the next best thing to Peyton and Tom a few years ago. He was awesome, throwing 4 TDs and completely 16 of 21 passes to give the Bengals a win to grown on going forward.
Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Oakland Raiders (WIN)
The Raiders made the Colts battle, that’s for sure. It was 17-16 until late in the 3rd when Manning tossed a short touchdown pass to Blair White to put the Colts up 8. Sebastian Janikowski had a huge game for the Raiders, and he banged home his 3rd field goal of 45+ yards to get the Raiders within striking distance, but the old-school combo of Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes tallied 140+ big rushing yards that helped the Colts sneak into the playoff lead in the AFC South.
Houston Texans (-2.5) @ Denver Broncos (Loss)
Tim Tebow led a furious Broncos comeback in this one, maybe a comeback that rips “head coach” from Gary Kubiak’s job title? The Texans were up 17-0 at the half, and 23-10 going into the 4th quarter. But Tim tossed a 23 yard touchdown to Correll Buckhalter and ran one in to put the Broncos up 1 with 3 minutes to go. The defense held on and Houston lost again.
Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) (WIN)
The Bucs are so much better than the Seahawks. It’s really a shame. Tampa Bay could be a force in the future, what a young team they have. This was free money.
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers (-3) (WIN)
The Giants got throttled, and just like that the Packers control their own playoff destiny. It has to go through a Chicago team that claims to be going all out in Week 17, but we’ll see how that pans out. Bottom line, the G-men just didn’t step it up as Aaron Rodgers looked decent in his return to the field – something about 400+ yards that just looks good!
Minnesota Vikings (+15) @ Philadelphia Eagles (WIN)
The Vikings won outright, in Philadelphia. Crazy. Joe Webb looked good, but really the Vikings just looked like the team that they were supposed to be all year. Did it keep Leslie’s job title in tact?
New Orleans Saints (+2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (WIN)
The Saints needed a 4th quarter comeback after Drew Brees threw a stupid pick-6, but it was his tackle on his 2nd interception that really kept the Saints in it. It was a gross game, and really quite weird. It should end up meaning nothing, however, as the Falcons play the Panthers next week in Atlanta, and that should seal up the 1st seed for them.
Oh, it was another tight one, and this time I wasn’t so lucky to end up at .500 – I didn’t drop too many spots, though, just one – I was 7-8-1 in Week 15. Schucks Auto Supply! It started and ended well – ha – but some in-between ruckus got me down. Next week I’m double digits wins or bust! Here’s the review.
Houston Texans (+1.5) @ Tennessee Titans (Loss)
The Texans are trying to get a new head coach, and I can’t blame them. It’ll be a hard choice next week between the Texans and the Broncos, with both teams trying hard to lose. The Titans are basically hopeless and walked past the Texans without much of a fight.
Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) (Loss)
The Lions are tough, tough enough for me to say “I bet they win at least 8 games next season, probably 10”. The Bucs found out how tough they were with a “must win” situation for Tampa turning into a loss. The Bucs just couldn’t make up for some poor plays.
New Orleans Saints (+2) @ Baltimore Ravens (Loss)
The Saints lost to a Ravens team that is really getting tough at the right time. It’ll be hard to bet against them moving forward – and while I wonder about the Saints’ run game, their passing attack hasn’t been wonderful either. What are they right now?
Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ New York Giants (WIN)
It took a miracle, but I’ll take it. Eli, so sad, shame-faced Eli. Blame it on the kicker, sure, but this game was lost way before that. Does anybody think the Eagles + Momentum were going to lose to the Giants? Please. Kicker just sped up the process.
Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Miami Dolphins (WIN)
The Bills were better than the Dolphins. If the Bills stay with Ryan Fitzpatrick, I think they win 8 games next year. If they run away and go with a youngster – I say they win less than the do this season. The Dolphins? Yikes. I see a change or two happening on that coaching staff/roster.
Kansas City Chiefs @ St. Louis Rams (+1) (Loss)
I thought the Rams would play better at home – I still think they win the West, but this was a little setback. Those Chiefs are pretty dang good after all.
Cleveland Browns (+2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (PUSH)
What are the Bengals doing winning football games at the end of the year? They’ve been so good at losing. Cleveland did some things near the end, but like everybody knows, Colt McCoy isn’t ready. I like the kid, he’s going to be good, lots of good stuff comes from him – and he may be the best choice in Cleveland right now – but he has a lot to learn before he’s ready, and the Bengals took advantage of that on Sunday.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5) @ Indianapolis Colts (Loss)
Just missed this one. It was a close game, relatively, and the Jaguars had their chances. I guess this was the slip I kept expecting. Now for the full tumble next week? We’ll see.
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys (-6) (Loss)
Hmm…. Maybe this Rex Grossman guy isn’t bad. Will Donovan McNabb ever be good again? He sure was bad at times last year in Philly – and he was rarely good this year in Washington – one has to wonder. Rex nearly got the Cowboys, but Dallas did just enough to win and not cover.
Atlanta Falcons (-6) @ Seattle Seahawks (WIN)
Thank you for giving me free money, Atlanta. The Hawks defense was better than I expected but their offense was worse than I could have dreamed. Easy money.
New York Jets (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (WIN)
The Jets went into Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers outright. It was a battle, no doubt, the Steelers have trouble on the offensive line right now, and I think that will get them early in the playoffs (week 1 or week 2). We’ll see.
Denver Broncos (+7) @ Oakland Raiders (Loss)
This one wasn’t too far off. Tim Tebow was about what I expected. The Raiders did lots of things well and they continued their solid season. I wonder if Tim comes in as the starting QB next year?
Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots (-5) (Loss)
What can I say? Patriots at home against Matt Flynn and the Packers? I thought I had this one in the bag. The Packers’ D was good, the Packers offense was going at it, and Green Bay probably played better football in this one. Tom Brady’s good enough to win when his team doesn’t play great football – and that’s how they did it, but just by 4, not enough to cover.
7-7-2 is the ultimate soccer tie, and it’s killing me. Seriously, I mean I guess I could have rocked a 6-6-4 record which has a more even and terrible dull look to it, but seven wins, seven losses, and two ties just screams vig-buster. This is how the tie-happy Week 14 went sideways…
Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Tennessee Titans (Loss)
This one was a bit of a joke. The Colts were walking away with this one when they started dropping passes and just flat out letting the Titans back in it. Of course there was no hope, and the final score in the last minute killed my cover but did nothing to the game. Bummer. I must say, I sat on my couch and predicted the outcome about 15 minutes before it happened – so at least I was ready!
Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Loss)
Oh the Bengals stink, and now we have Terrell Owens blaming the season on the coaches. Perfect, and everyone was thinking how he’d been a good teammate and made himself some extra money this off-season – nope – back to being the personality everyone is scared of.
Atlanta Falcons (-7) @ Carolina Panthers (WIN)
Give me the Falcons by a touchdown over the Panthers every time. This one was easy – and even better, my crazy uncle took the Panthers. Old people are crazy some times.
Oakland Raiders (+5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Loss)
The Raiders were right in this one, and I liked their chances to cover even with a bad kick-off return team miss. But MJD took it to the house and put his Jags up 7 for good. Blast.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+7) (WIN)
The Lions ended up winning, which feels really nice, but I’m sure missing Aaron Rodgers didn’t help the Pack’s cause. He went down with a concussion and didn’t return – though it’s not like they were hitting on all cylinders prior to his departure.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) @ Washington Redskins (PUSH)
The Redskins missed an extra point and lost to the Bucs, by just a point. I was thinking I had a nice 70% chance of winning in overtime (you know, because Washington is bad) but I was tricked, as Washington was bad enough not to get an extra point, a 95% play in the NFL.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) (WIN)
The 49ers beat up on the Seahawks, mainly trough the air behind a nice performance from Alex Smith. Will the 49ers continue their run for the West Crown? Unlikely, but still possible after this one.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-5) (Loss)
The Jets have fallen and they can’t get up. Despite holding Chad Henne to less than 60 yards throwing and 33% completion rate (about), the Jets couldn’t do enough to get on top – and it didn’t look like they’d ever move the ball well enough to cover anyway. Grossness.
New England Patriots (-3) @ Chicago Bears (WIN)
The Patriots aren’t to be bet against, ask the Bears, Steelers, and any other team that’s seen them lately. Tom has been amazing and just as important, that young defense is maturing before our very eyes.
Denver Broncos (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (Loss)
The Broncos without Josh McDaniels < the Broncos with him. I don’t think Denver would have gotten anywhere close to losing to the Cardinals with McD making a plan. Anyway, I’m not sure what to think of the Broncos, I might give them one more chance…
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (PUSH)
Another dumb push. The Cowboys were actually up for parts of this game, but the Eagles were just too much behind Vick and his speedster WR, DeSean Jackson. Jackson had two huge plays including a gimped-out 91-yard touchdown catch and run he had despite being a little lame. I wish I was lame like that – tough when your 4.2 is still a 4.4 when you’re not 100% – still faster than everyone else. Jackson had 210 receiving yards to help the Eagles win.
New York Giants (-2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings (WIN)
Easy. The Giants weren’t great, but the Vikings couldn’t do anything and continue to be haunted by turnovers even with ol’ silver beard sitting out his first game in a long, long time.
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans (+3) (Loss)
Overtime made me happy, and the Texans had all the momentum, but a pick-6 from Matt Schaub on a fadeaway out – never throw fadeaway outs, write that down – gave the Ravens the overtime win, the cover, and made me a 7-7-2 pusher this week. Next week, it’s winner-city!
Week 13 had a horrendous start for me, but a strong finish helped me get something out of the scrap pile. I was just 7-9, a losing week for the 4th time this season – but the way it started out, I was happy to see 7 in the win column. It was that bad, early… 4 straight Ws to finish off the week got me to a better place.
Houston Texans (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles (Loss)
It started well enough, but a bad 4th quarter got the Eagles a 10 point win and me a one point loss. In fact, the Texans were up going into the 4th quarter – the Eagles won that quarter 14-0, and that’s how “looking good” turns into $#!&!
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins (-4) (Loss)
This Dolphins just couldn’t quite put it together. Unlike last week, the Fins decided they were going to take by air to win this game. In the trust of Chad Henne’s arm, the Dolphins put the ball up 32 times (just 2 fewer than the Browns and Delhomme) while rushing about the same (if you count Henne’s scrambles). Sure enough, Henne tossed 3 interceptions, and the Dolphins lost by a field goal. How Delhomme threw 34 times and 0 interceptions is beyond me – I wouldn’t be excited for next game, Browns’ fans – Jake Diesel is due.
New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (Loss)
Oh those silly Bengals. On an obvious “try to draw them offsides” play, Drew Brees drew the Bengals offsides – that gave them a new set of downs inside the 5, they scored soon after and that was ballgame. I lost either way, but the Bengals are good at losing.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3) (Loss)
The Titans are playing some bad football right now, and one has to wonder what all that has to do with Fischer, the Randy Moss trade, the Vince Young situation, and all that’s going on in Tennessee. It sure isn’t looking pretty – but the Jaguars keep winning, and that’s crazy in and of itself.
Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions (WIN)
The Bears snuck one out after a BS penalty helped Chicago keep a drive alive. Needless to say it was a “blow to the dome” of Jay Cutler that kept it going, only he didn’t get hit in the head. The old slipperoo. But it got me a W, whatever consolation that is.
Buffalo Bills (+7) @ Minnesota Vikings (Loss)
It was nice to see the Vikings step up and dominate as soon as Brett Favre was slammed to the turf and out of the line-up. I don’t think Tarvaris played too well (he had Favre-itas with 3 interceptions), but Minnesota’s defense played well. Buffalo finally came out and got destroyed after being in so many football games this year.
Denver Broncos (+9.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (WIN)
10-6 and there it is. I thought it’d be a close one but I thought it’d have some scoring, too. For two running games absolutely going off (Moreno had 161 yards by himself for the Broncos, and Charles ran for 116 and Thomas Jones for 53. But just one touchdown was scored, a 1st quarter Leonard Pope TD catch that meant the end of Josh McDaniels as a head coach in Denver.
San Francisco 49ers (+10) @ Green Bay Packers (Loss)
I knew the 49ers weren’t going to win, or cover, when they had 54 seconds left in the 1st half and had the ball on the 36 yard line, and decided to run the clock out. That’s just not winning football. If you can’t feel comfortable trying to get 35 yards in a minute with timeouts left, well, you don’t deserve to win anything.
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks (-6) (WIN)
The Hawks were trying to blow their entire season by losing to the worst team in football, but their defense and special teams stepped up big in the 2nd half and the Hawks put up 31 unanswered to keep them atop the bad NFC West. And they covered.
Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts (-5) (Loss)
Indy sure stunk it up against the Cowboys. They couldn’t stop the run (Dallas had around 200 yards rushing) and they didn’t take advantage of all the passing yards they accrued during the game. Peyton threw a few more interceptions, and the Colts couldn’t run the ball, and I was still hoping Wayne would get loose for an OT touchdown. Didn’t happen, I lost.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WIN)
The Falcons just pulled this one out. 28-24. It was as close as that suggests, the Bucs had chances but some tough penalties and a great interception by Brent Grimes (very underrated) sealed it with about a minute left.
St. Louis Rams (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (WIN)
The Rams are way better than the Cardinals and it showed. How bad is Arizona? Matt Leinart would be twice as good as any QB they’ve had taking snaps this season. How many coaches would that decision get fired? Lots.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens (WIN)
Pittsburgh needed a huge defensive play to get anything going, but that was enough as Troy Palamalu forced a Joe Flacco fumble and the Steelers returned it inside the 10 – Isaac Redman took it from there as he broke 3 tackles on a short pass to pinball his way into the endzone for the game winning score.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-3) (WIN)
The Patriots beat the Jets in a laugher. Not too funny for fantasy guys that needed 5 points from Mark Sanchez or 3 points from Dustin Keller or anything like that – because if you had Jets, you came up short. Tom Brady and his receiving corps (and BenJarvus Green-Ellis) put up some nice points, though – and after Monday I thought, maybe the Pats are the best team in football….
Thanks Giving Day Games –It was a tough Thanksgiving for me in the NFL world, but real life Thanksgiving was awesome. I guess that’s a good trade. The hardest part about my picks is how solid they looked at different points of the game. I mean, the Lions/Pats game was tied in the 4th. The Bengals were up 7-3 at half. Things were looking good. Two losses and a push later I’m starting the week in a fat hole.
New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions (+7) (Loss)
The Lions gave me a lot of home then crushed me like a bug. Tied going into the 4th, Brady torches them for three unanswered touchdowns to win by 21. Nice. On the bright side, the turkey wasn’t dry – so moist!
New Orleans Saints (-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (PUSH)
The Saints were pushing along until I went to the front yard to build a giant snow wiener. When I got back, it was comeback time, and just by the perfect margin to not win or lose. On the bright side, the gravy was perfect!
Cincinnati Bengals (+10) @ New York Jets (Loss)
Up at half, down by 16 after 4… They only play 4. The Bengals can look really terrible at times. On the bright side, the rolls wee as soft and buttery as the mashed potatoes. And I won my own Turkey Bowl game in the snow!
Sunday Games – Sunday was better for me. After an 0-2-1 hole I fought back going into Monday Night with an even record and 50/50 chance to be a winner for the week. Did I say 50-50? The Cardinals were playing, and I picked against them, so it was better than 50-50.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+9) @ New York Giants (WIN)
I wasn’t feeling too confident about this one going in. The Jags had two of their starting tackles out on the O-line, and last time I checked every team only has 2 starting OTs. Anyway, they fought it off and were up big going into the 4th. They ended up losing, of course, they are the Jags – but the streakiness of New York held on long enough to get me an easy cover.
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (pk) (WIN)
Wow this one couldn’t have been easier. Gotta like a 20-0 beastmode show by the Texans. I’m not sure what’s going on in Tennessee, but they are playing nothing like a Jeff Fischer team.
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons (-1) (WIN)
The Packers did their best to pull a comeback out of their hat – and they did, but Matty Ice and the Falcons had other ideas, putting together a winning drive of their own – they won by 3 – I slipped out alive!
Carolina Panthers (+11) @ Cleveland Browns (WIN)
I can’t believe I took the Panthers with Jimmy Clausen starting at quarterback and they won. Bottom line here, no matter how well Jake Delhomme plays in the first half, he’s bound to catch up in the 2nd half. Guy loves throwing to defenses. The Panthers missed a FG to win it, so, if you do the math, that cover was easy breezy!
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) @ Buffalo Bills (Loss)
Steelers run, run, run their way to a 13 point lead. Big Ben starts passing because that’s what the Steelers do. The Bills start to catch up, they send it into overtime and Steve Johnson drops a game winning TD. The Steelers run their way down the field for the win. I wonder if they get it?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9) @ Baltimore Ravens (WIN)
The Buccos are better than a 9 point dog against anybody. This game was close, but like I said, the Bucs tackle and make you stay in front of them, and that’s a great thing to bet on getting 9 points.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Chicago Bears (Loss)
I’m not sure – nothing went Philly’s way in this one – I still think they are the better team, but they need to get their defense right. The Bears played flawlessly at home and still just pulled out with a close win. I’m just saying. I was wrong, but I’m just saying.
Miami Dolphins @ Oakland Raiders (-2.5) (Loss)
The Dolphins came out and played like the team I thought they were three weeks ago before they begin pooping beds with regularity. They ran the ball a ton, more than they had all season, and the Raiders took one on the nose.
St. Louis Rams (+4) @ Denver Broncos (WIN)
The Rams won, and they were up big going into the 4th but Denver roared back to make it close. Still, St. Louis is the better team and they have a stud QB that is only getting better as the season meanders forward.
San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts (-3) (Loss)
Tough here. Nothing went Indy’s way again, but the Chargers dominated. They didn’t need to take chances because there were perfectly content just throwing short passes and running up the middle, taking what the Colts gave them, and plodding down the field. It’s a good game plan. It’s easier when Manning throws 4 picks and 2 of them are pick-sixes, but it’s a good game plan against the Colts.
San Francisco 49ers (pk) @ Arizona Cardinals (WIN)
This was nice, one game for a winning record or a losing record and Mike Singletary (*my favorite player of all time) and his guys came through in the clutch. Well, there wasn’t much clutch, the Cardinals were choking out of the locker room, but still – it was nice to see, even with Gore out, the 49ers smashed in the running game and won easily. Neither team looked crisp, however, so watch out if you’re betting the Niners hard moving forward.
NFL Free Football Picks for Week 11 2010 REVIEW: It was an 8-8 week for me in Week 11, and we all know how I feel about pushing. The Dolphins started out by throwing the ball 10x more than they ran, and that’s never a good sign unless the 3rd stringer you have in there just so happens to sling it like Kurt Warner. I knew I was in for a tough week. In the end, it wasn’t all that tough – a couple teams came through in fine fashion, and if it weren’t for a Monday Night Football debacle, I was on 9-7 duty. Oh well, 8-8, and we’ll try again next week!
Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins (-1) (Loss)
The Dolphins could have ran the ball more than they threw it, and then, maybe, the Fins might have walked out with a win. There were some judgment issues with my pick here, Thigpen, the play callers for Miami, the offensive line for the Fins. Tough one to start on.
Baltimore Ravens (-10) @ Carolina Panthers (WIN)
My gimmie of the week was a little pressing late when the Panthers cut it to a 20-13 score on a deep TD from St. Pierre to Gettis – but after that, the Ravens put up 17 unanswered and made a large percentage of the public very happy. Of course it wasn’t as easy as it looked, it never is.
Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings (WIN)
That last comment, never as easy as it looked, I take that back. The Packers won, at the very least, as easy as it looked. Chilly thinks so, and so do the Vikings owners – and that’s the ball game, Chilly!
Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) (WIN)
The Steelers were just too much for the Raiders, holding their potent rushing attack to very little, and harassing Jason Campbell all day long. Steelers won big.
Washington Redskins @ Tennessee Titans (-7) (Loss)
The Redskins took advantage of some interesting happenings in Tennessee as the QB issue came right to the forefront. Chris Johnson had 21 carries for 130 yards but he couldn’t get into the end zone. Rusty Smith came in for Vince Young, and was pretty much ineffective. Randy Moss was held without a catch. The Redskins weren’t good, but they outlasted the Titans in a gross ball game.
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals (-5) (Loss)
Oh Cincinnati. I was counting my win with the Bengals up 28-7. However, so were they, and we all see how that ended. From that point forward, the Bills outscored the Bengals 42-3 for the minor upset. Tough one to swallow, I imagine. Harder for them than me.
Detroit Lions (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys (Loss)
The Lions had a shot. It was a 19-21 game going into the 4th quarter – but Kitna would throw a TD and run for one to put the Cowboys up for good, handing me, and the Lions, another loss.
Cleveland Browns (+2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Loss)
The Browns just play too many close games. Despite 6 Jacksonville Jaguar turnovers, the Browns slow-play style couldn’t get far enough ahead to thwart the Jags from getting to 6-4 and covering by a couple points.
Houston Texans (+7) @ New York Jets (WIN)
The Hard Knocks spread was too big for the Jets to cover, but a last second touchdown gave them the win over the Hard-Luck Texans – maybe that can become a TV show. The Bengals and Texans can co-star, TO and Ocho can co-host, Jenn Sterger can…
Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints (-11.5) (WIN)
The Seachickens actually played pretty good football, but a couple costly fumbles and some bad defensive penalty calls got the Hawks in a place they couldn’t return from, eventually losing 34-19. Just enough for a much needed win.
Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams (+3.5) (Loss)
Yet another game that I was feeling pretty good about late. Deep into the 3rd quarter, the Rams had the ball up 17-16. That changed quick. A Matt Ryan TD pass with 2 minutes left in the 3rd put the Falcons up 6. A field goal midway through the 4th put them up 11. A late Michael Turner breakthrough TD put them up 17 and that is how a close game becomes a blowout in a quarter.
Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) @ New England Patriots (WIN)
Just got it by the hair on my chin (and I shaved recently, so it was really close). I thought I was in deep, deep trouble like Bart Simpson, but then Peyton came to the rescue and I was afraid my wish had come too true, as the Colts were going to win (and I kind of root for the Pats over the Colts). But then Manning came to the rescue there, too, doing just enough to cover but throwing a game ending interception late in the 4th when they were in field goal range. Beautiful!
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3) (WIN)
Mike Vick wasn’t hitting bulls eye’s all day, but he still gave the Giants a lot of trouble. I thought the Eagles were putting themselves in a tough spot when they kicked all those field goals, but a late McCoy touchdown run gave me room to cover. An even later Eli Manning self-caused fumble (yes, it was great, he tackled himself hard enough to cause a fumble – should have seen his gooey face after that one!) sealed the deal.
Denver Broncos (+10) @ San Diego Chargers (Loss)
Whoops. I thought the Broncos would come in and do what they did on the first drive – however, that was about the last time they played good football all game long. The fake punt really killed them – amazing how one play can seemingly have that effect on a game. It did. This one put me even for the week.
It’s very tough to garner double digit wins in a bye week – but this week, that’s just what I did. These picks were made for winning, and that’s just what they did, these picks were plucked for winning, and they’ll win all over you! It started with a loss, but boy-oh-boy, it sure ended with a win!
Baltimore Ravens (+1) @ Atlanta Falcons (Loss)
Oh, I wouldn’t have felt good about this one had I come out victorious. The Ravens got handled pretty much all night, but they fought back to go up with about a minute and change left. The Falcons made it right when Matty Ice slung a touchdown pass to Roddy White to win it. It’s a loss I earned – that’s for sure.
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (+1) (WIN)
The Bears were the better team throughout, in an interception fest in Chicago. Brett had some bad cleats on his receivers and he wasn’t on point anyway. Weird, that OT win against Arizona didn’t translate to a win over a decent team… Hmm…
Tennessee Titans (-1) @ Miami Dolphins (Loss)
The Titans beat up on the Dolphins QB position, but in the end that just meant they had Tyler Thigpen to worry about, and he’s probably the best QB on Miami’s roster anyway. Look for the Fins to start picking up wins with the young QB running the show.
Houston Texans (+2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Loss)
A Hail-Mary did me in, but it is what it is. The Jaguars outplayed the Texans, and that surprised me. I thought I was going to sneak out of Jacksonville with an overtime win, but the right team walked away with a W and I hopped off with a loss.
Detroit Lions (+3) @ Buffalo Bills (WIN)
This is GREAT! The Bills finally get a win, and I still win betting against them. The Lions didn’t play well and the Bills ran all over them because of it. Detroit is back to being Detroit, maybe? I don’t know, after everyone kept giving them the “better than their record” treatment, they go and lose to the only win less team in football. Nice. Still, they were good enough to get me the cover.
New York Jets (-3) @ Cleveland Browns (WIN)
The Jets somehow managed to walk out of Cleveland with a win. Colt McCoy continues to impress me, and while he’s not winning like he did at Texas, he sure gives his Browns a chance to win every time he’s on the mound – if you get my baseball reference. But New York didn’t just get me the OT push that’s expected from a team that wins in OT, nope, Santonio Holmes took it the distance to get me the cover. Brilliant.
Cincinnati Bengals (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts (WIN)
The Bengals had a chance, even after sucking it up early and handing the Colts great field position and points. When he wasn’t sucking for a handful of throws, Carson Palmer was really throwing well. Still, is there any game where he doesn’t suck at least for a little while? Hopefully he’s turning it around – he played well enough for me to get the W – I’ll take it.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-14) (Loss)
Okay, so I was a little worried and not too excited about going against the Cowboys with 14 points on their side, and apparently that was justified. Still, just by 4th loss of the week – and my last. Plus, it’s always nice to see Tom Couglin and Eli’s squishy face when they’re losing.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (+1) (WIN)
Oh, gotta feel good about this one. The Broncos straight dominated the Chiefs on Sunday, throwing the ball around like it was 8 man football. It was so bad that Todd Haley wouldn’t even shake McD’s hand at the end of the game – maybe Todd was po’d that he didn’t just run the ball 80% of the time and keep it close? Hmmm… Everyone had a good fantasy day in this one.
St. Louis Rams (+6.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (WIN)
The Rams didn’t win, but they covered. San Francisco didn’t play like a team that deserved damn close to a touchdown spread, as they haven’t all year. Sam Bradford is good, he doesn’t beat himself, and the Rams don’t make many mistakes anywhere. Give them a TD and watch them cover.
Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (WIN)
I can’t believe it, the Sea-Chickens got me a W. It’s usually Seattle just killing me either way, when I pick for or against them, but they trounced the Cardinals from the get-go. Now if Marshawn Lynch could just get going.
New England Patriots (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (WIN)
Giving Tom Brady and his Patriots points is a scary thing. The Patriots didn’t just win, and the score doesn’t quite do it justice, because it makes it look closer than it was – the Patriots embarrassed the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football. Really, Tom was awesome and made me remember why people have called him the best in the game. But there is this Mike Vick guy…
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Washington Redskins (WIN)
Mike Vick beat the Redskins. Seriously. The Super-talented, and formerly embattled QB went nuts on the Redskins, throwing 4 TD passes and running for a couple more. The Eagles put up 59 points in Washington, and yeah, it’s was a good exclamation point for my 10-win week. 10-4 baby! Yeah!
2010 NFL Week 9 Free Football Picks Review: 9-4… Just like cornbread, ain’t nothing wrong with that! I’m always going for double digit wins, but in 13-game NFL weeks it’s a tough safe to crack – 9 is still pretty darn good and I’m happy about it. Anytime you pick every game the NFL offers and come out with twice as many wins as losses, you’re doing something good. Here’s the review…
Chicago Bears (-2.5) @ Buffalo Bills (WIN)
The Bears beat the Bills by a field goal and they looked like they were completely impressed with themselves. Jay Cutler didn’t throw an interception – hell – the world just about froze over – but I benefited so it’s not all bad!
San Diego Chargers (-2.5) @ Houston Texans (WIN)
The Chargers ended up winning behind Phillip Rivers’ four touchdown passes. It’s amazing, the former NC State Wolfpack signal caller just doesn’t blink. Regardless of how many starters were out, he still just threw touchdowns, and the back-ups came in and caught them.
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) (Loss)
Well… The Vikings needed overtime to beat the Cardinals even though Brett threw for more yards on Sunday than any other Sunday in his entire career. All I have to say is, this team will be lucky if they win 3 more games this season.
New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers (WIN)
The Saints came out and destroyed the Panthers. It didn’t help that the Panthers looked like a MASH unit before the thing was over, but I’m pretty sure the Saints would have beaten just about any team Carolina threw out there.
New York Jets (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions (Loss)
“I feel like stealing candy from a group of kids, wait, that’s what we’re doing when we’re taking the Jets. I say “WE” because it’s exactly true, this has to be the most lopsided betting line of the season, as over 70% of ladies and gents are taking refuge on the Jets side of this line. Should WE be worried? You bet, anytime the books take that kind of money on one side of a small line like this, something might very well be up.” – Well there it is, my smoke signal to the masses. I couldn’t help myself, but just like I warned, this spread had “WATCH OUT!!!!” written all over it. And what do you know, the thing goes into OT and the Jets win… By 3… Yep. Tricked!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons (WIN)
I thought there was something to like about the close-knit tough group in Tampa getting 9 points and I was right. It came down to a play on the one yard line, too, but the Bucs couldn’t hammer it out, and they ended up losing. A close loss is an easy cover when you’re getting 9 points – so yay us!
New England Patriots @ Cleveland Brown (+5) (WIN)
“Peyton Hillis, who has become a battering ram for this Browns team, comes out of the bye left off the injury report, and that’s good news for the Browns. The Pats have been decent against the run, but with Cleveland’s offensive line doing work, and Hillis healthy, Cleveland should be able to run effectively against the Pats.” Well, Hillis tortured the Patriots just like I expected, and McCoy kept doing what he’s been doing his entire football life, anything it takes to win. Do you believe me now? The Browns are pretty solid.
Miami Dolphins (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (Loss)
This game was a lot closer than the final score, but it still comes out a loss on the old Richter scale. Baltimore just used a battering ram of rushing and some big turnovers from their secondary to end up beating the road Fins.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (-2.5) (WIN)
Just by a hair. The Raiders got it done when it mattered most. Darren McFadden, you know, the draft bust – well, he’s become one hell of a pick for the Raiders as his hard-nosed runs have become a perfect example of what this team is all about.
Indianapolis Colts @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) (Loss)
Everyone thought I was crazy for picking the Eagles. Well, not quite. It was still a Colts victory against the spread, even though they lost, so I didn’t win – but if you watched the game you can see where I was coming from. Vick did neutralize the Colts’ defense, and the Eagles D group did well against an offensive attack sans a running game. The Eagles kicked a lot of field goals, and that’s what kept them from covering – but they won, and I lost by that dreaded half point.
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (-9) (WIN)
This wasn’t really a football game, but maybe the Packers players can get up to play next week with a new head coach. I wasn’t a big Wade fan, and obviously there needed to be a change – but how pathetic can a bunch of players play the last couple weeks? Have a little heart…
Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (WIN)
Well, the Bengals made it a game, and I was ready to take the loss if it meant a Bengals win – just gotta like underdogs to make it happen late like that, always exciting. But a dropped pass at the 4 ended the Bengals’ drive and gave me the victory – I’ll take that too! Not a bad week for Ol’ Lucky!
NFL Week 8
Oh no. I busted out just 5 wins in a short-game week, tallying a 5-8 record, and picks haven’t been peachy for me over the last couple go-’rounds – but I’ll be back in it, always a winner – the history speaks for itself. As for now, well, this is the tough part – time to own up for my sins….
Denver Broncos (+1) @ San Francisco 49ers (LOSS)
It was in England, I should have known that the run-first team would get the better of the pass-first team. The 49ers sure know how to get a guy – they tricked me and early I thought they were starting David Carr – well, I probably still would have taken Denver, but I wouldn’t have started counting my money on Wednesday.
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions (-1) (WIN)
The Lions pulled it out, and I’d like to thank Splinter Shannahan for giving me the assist here. Donovan McNabb has won plenty of games in the final two minutes of a game, but ol’ Splinter decided to pass the buck to Rex Grossman. That turned out well, don’t you think Ninja-Turtle-Sensei?
Green Bay Packers (+6) @ New York Jets (WIN)
The Packers won out-right, but it didn’t happen how I thought it would. It was all Green Bay’s defense, callousing up and slamming the door shut right when they needed to, drive after drive. Interesting game, but an easy cover nonetheless.
Buffalo Bills (+9) @ Kansas City Chiefs (WIN)
Boy, I picked the Chiefs in my survivor-pool, and I was pretty sure I had it lose at least thrice. 1 – the Chiefs kick with a minute left, Roscoe Parrish returns it into basically field goal range. Luckily Fitzpatrick channeled Drew Bledsoe’s slow ass and threw a pick to end the 4th in a tie. 2 – the Bills were driving, had it in relative field goal range, Fitzy back to Bledsoe’s shadow, sacked, Bills have to punt. 3- Chiefs have a field goal to win it, and easy one, a wind gust takes the kick about 20 yards left after dude hit it right down the middle. But then Succop got a 2nd chance after some more bad Bills stuff, and he played the wind just right and nailed it as OT expired. Plus, the guy I was up against took the Jets. Winner-winner-survivor-dinner!!!
Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1) (LOSS)
The Dolphins fought back after some early give-aways, anti-luck, and sure enough, they got their 4th road win of the season. Carson Palmer may have thrown a couple TD passes, but there isn’t a QB outside of the NFC West that looks as bad as Carson. Seriously, I’ve watched a lot of football. Trust me.
Carolina Panthers (+3) @ St. Louis Rams (LOSS)
Sam Bradford was just too accurate, even against a pretty decent pass defense. The Panthers shut down the Rams’ rushing attack really well – but it wasn’t enough, because Carolina felt like throwing again (like I warned you, John Fox wears clown shoes) with 37 attempts, and Matt Moore (who isn’t a 30+ attempt guy) had 3 interceptions that were game killers.
Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers (-3) (WIN)
Great game, Vince Young went down after playing really well throughout – Kerry Collins couldn’t get the Titans a late touchdown to maybe tie, and definitely cover (pending 2 point conversion). Chris Johnson dropped a first down pass late to end it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) (LOSS)
The Bucs tried to give this game up a couple times, but each time they did, they came right back and ended up winning on the road. The Cardinals insisted on starting Max Hall again, that didn’t go so well for them/me.
Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots (-5) (WIN)
My last win of the week, and that’s not a good thing when it’s your 5th and you’re going into Sunday and Monday Night Football. From here, I could have won out, and finished 7-6 for the week – not great, but a winner, but after the luck I needed to win this game, I figured I was out of it for the next two anyway. Sure enough, I was. The Patriots get the ball down to the 1 yards line, and I’m thinking, “Sweet, easy TD, easy cover, game over.” Then of course, Brady takes two “I don’t care if I get in” plunges and the Pats are on the 1, wasting time, but the Vikes have more than a minute left and if the Pats just kick a field goal, it’s only a 6 point game. So now I’m saying, “I hope you lose you dumb Patriots!!!” Then Tom comes in, hands the ball to Ben Jarvis Green Ellis and the Patriots go up 10 because he scores. Now I’m thinking “Thanks for eliminating most of the time the Vikings would maybe use to cover the spread – but you’re still idiots.” But I win. And 5 is better than 4, if both are still crappy.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) @ New Orleans Saints (LOSS)
This one was tight, but I sure expected more from the Steelers passing game with the Saints starting a bunch of safeties all over their secondary. In the end, it was Brees getting it done against the Steelers pass defense – and I knew he had it in him, I just thought the Steelers would do more.
Houston Texans (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (LOSS)
Matt Schaub looked scared after the first series, maybe justifiably so, but he threw some terrible passes in the first 3 quarters, and the Texans really donkey’d up their chances by steering away from the run early, then when they figured they needed it, it was too late.