New York Giants @ New England Patriots NFL SUPER BOWL Free Pick: I must say, it’s interesting that Vegas decided to favor the New England Patriots even after everyone and their mother saw how down the AFC was this year, how the Giants have won (basically) elimination games for the last month and a half, how the Giants are finally healthy where as all year they’ve been bothered by the injury bug, and how, just the opposite, key Patriots (like cult hero Gronk) are dinged going into the NFL’s Championship. That being said and well understood, I’m taking the Patriots as well, but I’m sure it has less to do with the facts and more to do with my facts.

Fact #1: Unless you have the strongest of feelings going the other way, you always bet against the team that should have lost last time they played. I know, many will say that both these teams should have lost the last time they laced up the cleats and strapped up their helmets, but at least Lee Evans didn’t drop the game winning touchdown with less than a minute left, he got it ripped out of his arms. Sure, Billy CUNdiff missed the game tier, the overtime headed blast from less than 40  yards out (chip shot by NFL standards), but overtime would have guaranteed nothing for a Ravens team that couldn’t run the ball all day. Regardless of how poorly Tom Terrific was playing, you’d have to give him and his Pats the nod as far as overtime chances. So, though it was close, I’m not qualifying the Pats as a team that should have lost last week. The Giants on the other hand, please. They got two muffed punt gifts that resulted in 10 points, and that pretty much clears it up. They should have lost, regardless of “how good they’re playing” (everyone).

Fact #2: Never bet against Tom Brady to win. Taking the Ravens at +2.5 is basically taking the Giants to win, and I just can’t do it, not against Tom, not when somehow the favorites (Patriots) are getting treated like the biggest underdog since, well, the Giants were when they upset the then-undefeated New England Patriots. I’ll add one more.

Fact #3: Don’t bet against Vegas for the Super Bowl. EVERYONE is taking the Giants. Higher public percentage. More money. More experts. It doesn’t stop. Even the Giants are gloating around like they are going to win. For the record, nobody does anything before the do it, and those that think they have often don’t. Write that down. The Giants big mouths just barely fit in their big face-masks which are trying to burst off their big helmets. I expect Tom to be great. I expect it to be a little lopsided early. I expect the Patriots to hang on and win by a couple touchdowns. Yep, at least you know, I’m the one who’s taking the Patriots big. Two scores at least. 34-20.

New York Giants @ New England Patriots (-2.5)

New York Giants VS New England Patriots: Free Super Bowl Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on February 5, 2012. Remember you can also Tweet This.

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers NFC Championship Free Pick: The Giants have played pretty dang good football in 6 of their last 7 games. Obviously, they’ve played their best football in the most important of situations, the playoffs. But it seemed like the Giants were playing playoff football games since early December. They lost in a close one at home against Green Bay then made an amazing comeback to beat Dallas (and start the Cowboy free fall). A hiccup loss to Washington was their last down game as they’ve won 4 straight since, beating and eliminating the Jets, Cowboys, Falcons, and Packers. Quite the run for the New York Football Giants.

I jus think it ends here. The Packers were beat up and they really struggled defensively all year long. The Falcons had just about the softest “please try not to lose” game plan I’ve ever seen (especially for a team that invested a ton into Julio Jones and their passing attack) and the Cowboys and Jets were both lost teams by season’s end. The 49ers are very strong defensively; they get after it on both sides of the ball. They have a physical style that none of the teams NY has beaten has. They don’t make mistakes and they take advantage of yours – and the Giants make plenty of mistakes.

This game isn’t going to be the freewheeling type of game that New York has played recently, and I think that makes this a tough one for them. Eli will almost certainly be under pressure, and that has never been a comfortable place for him. This game will be close, but I just think the 49ers are stronger than anyone has given them credit for, and that still means something in this league, even if it has become full of pass-happy offenses and fantasy football numbers.

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers NFC Championship Free Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on January 22, 2012. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots AFC Championship Free Pick: I think these teams are very even. Obviously the Patriots offense is much more reliable and consistent than the O the Ravens put on the field, but the Patriots defense hasn’t been a force many weeks this season, and it’s hard for me to expect them to come out and dominate for the 2nd week in a row. Flacco can heave the ball all over the field, the Pats will have to pay attention to all parts of Baltimore’s offense, Ray Rice especially.

It comes down to Ray Rice against the Patriots front 7, and I have to lean toward the Ravens in that battle. Ray is one of the most complete running backs in the league. His speed and physicality could be a very tough stop for the Pats. But it’s not all Ray. Sure, Flacco hasn’t been awesome this year, but like I said earlier, he can make all the throws. With Lee Evans and Torrey Smith, the Ravens have deep threats. With Boldin, they have a big, strong, gamer that can make plays all over the field.

Defensively, the advantage is hands down to the Ravens. I think the game is close to a toss up, the Patriots should get a little advantage being at home – but 7 points is a lot for a couple teams that play lots of close games. Got to take the dog because of it.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) @ New England Patriots

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots AFC Championship Free Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on January 21, 2012. Remember you can also Tweet This.

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers NFC Divisional Playoff Free Pick: This game should be fun. I feel like both defenses will be better this time around. The Packers should be ready and healthy after a two week (3 weeks for some of their key players) off. I guess there’s a chance they’ll be rusty, but that chance is very small. In the NFL giving guys that have been through 1000 on the field car-wrecks a couple weeks off can only do wonders for their physical well-being. The Packers have done this before, remember, won big games in the post-season – I think they know what they’re dealing with.

The Giants have been very good of late, riding a late season hot streak into the playoffs. It showed when they absolutely dismantled the Atlanta Falcons in the wild-card round. I think Atlanta’s safe game plan had something to do with that outcome, but the Giants’ defense has certainly stepped up down the stretch, and they probably come in to Green Bay as healthy and strong as they’ve been all year. So yes, like I said, both defenses should be better in this one.

Eli Manning has been downright impressive this season, and the only reason you haven’t heard a ton about his amazing year is because of the seasons Aaron Rodgers, Brees, and Brady put on the board. Oh, and because Tebow gets a little attention. The bottom line is, the Packers’ defense isn’t what it was last year – for some reason – and Eli will get the ball in the end zone a few times.

But I just don’t think the Giants are consistent enough. They weren’t very strong early against Atlanta, scoring just 7 first half points despite running and passing with success. They just don’t have that consistency. The Packers have it. I can see the Packers winning by a couple scores.

That being said, the Giants just have some magic that keeps games close. Eli is really good taking big chances late, and his receivers are very solid. I think he gets the job done, and by done, I mean I think the Giants cover – if just by a hair.

New York Giants (+8) @ Green Bay Packers

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers NFC Divisional Playoff Free Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on January 15, 2012. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens AFC Divisional Playoff Free Pick: What I really like about the Texans is their very good defense going up against a very safe and sound Baltimore offense – oh – and that free touchdown-plus. The Texans have a very good rushing attack that will likely do some damage, even against the aggressive and powerful Ravens defense. Cincinnati boasts a very good run defense, and both Foster and Tate showed the Texans strength in the wild-card round – I don’t think that stops in Week 2 of the playoffs.

Baltimore is the better team, even if it’s just by a small margin. T.J. Yates has been good enough for the Texans to give them a chance to win if they run well and play good defense, two things I expect them to do in Baltimore.

The Texans will have to commit a lot to stopping Ray Rice, one of the best all around running backs in the NFL. But what makes you think they won’t continue to do what they’ve done all year? Houston’s defense is well coached and full of really good athletes. They’re much improved in the secondary as well. This is a very tough team, and even down to their 3rd quarterback, they’re tough enough to stay close with anyone – why not a Baltimore team that has either lost or played within 8 points of their opponent in 7 of their last 10 games?

Houston may not have many tricks up their sleeves, but they know what they do and they do it well. There’s something to be said for that.

Houston Texans (+7.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens AFC Divisional Playoff Free Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on January 15, 2012. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots AFC Playoff Free Pick: As I announced in the newsletter the odds seem just a little too off here. I think the Patriots are getting a little too much credit for ousting the Broncos with relative ease about a month ago. Let’s make it abundantly clear, there is no matter of fact way to look at a previous match-up – it will never assure the same happens again.

The game earlier this year was a 41-23 beating of the Broncos, a game where Tim Tebow often looked like the young starting quarterback that he is. But don’t be confused about the final score, the Broncos were up 16-3 and if it weren’t for some fluky fumbles (3 lost by the Broncos) the game likely would have been much different. Why different? The Broncos ran like wild against Patriots. Tim had 92 yards rushing on just 12 carries (2 touchdowns). Willis McGahee had 70 yards on 7 carries (he got hurt). Lance Ball had 11 carries for 64 yards. Basically the Patriots couldn’t stop the Broncos – but Denver stopped themselves with untimely turnovers. With all that being said, the Broncos were up 16-7 at one time.

I don’t think Tim pulls this one off, I have to be honest. But I didn’t think he would last week either – I just liked the points, a lot like I do this week. The value is great, in my opinion. And if value doesn’t work out, you always have Tebowmagic.

Denver Broncos (+13.5) @ New England Patriots

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots AFC Playoff Free Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on January 14, 2012. Remember you can also Tweet This.

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers NFC Playoff Free Pick: I read on ESPN that Drew Brees hasn’t thrown an interception in 215 consecutive passes in post season play – that’s flat out amazing, and a record. It’s this kind of precision that has me taking the side of the Saints on Saturday as they head to San Francisco to play the 49ers.

The 49ers are a very good team, much better than anybody gives them credit for. Even “football guys” wonder if the 49ers can win in the post season like they did in the regular season, as if it were some kind of smoke and mirrors spread option masterpiece under rookie coach, Jim Harbaugh. Believe me, that’s not how the year was for San Francisco. In fact, they do it old school if nothing else. They run the ball first and they will pass on any down, and they do so efficiently – they just understand the importance of owning the time of possession and beating their opponents up. The same things happens defensively, as they force quarterbacks to hit small targets, almost always holding drives out of the end zone. This is a very complete team in San Francisco, don’t be tricked.

That being said, Drew Brees is that guy that won’t be too effected by the tight spaces San Francisco allows. He’s as accurate as they get, a precise thrower with a lightening quick release, and plenty of weapons to cause damage in the 49ers’ secondary. I like this game to be close, and anything can happen in a close game – but it’s tough for me to buy the 49ers scoring enough to keep up with Brees, especially with Drew throwing like he has been.

New Orleans Saints (-3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers NFC Playoff Free Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on January 14, 2012. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants Wildcard Weekend NFL Free Pick: I’m picking the Falcons because I still can’t believe in the Giants. They don’t run the ball very well, they don’t play very well defensively, and Eli still has that little bit of “scare the crap out of me” in him – and not in a good way. Sometimes, even his completions scare me. But I don’t want to take anything away from Eli Manning – he’s had a hell of a year, put a very complete football season together and led a Giants team to a division title despite struggling mightily on defense all year long and going through half the season with a lackadaisical rushing attack. Manning has been awesome.

The Falcons were very much under the radar this season. Maybe it’s because they had such high expectations then started so slowly. They fell to the Bears in Chicago in Week 1, needed a miracle comeback to beat the Eagles in Week 2, lost to the Bucs in Week 3, barely beat the Seahawks in Week 4, and finished their tough start by dropping Week 5’s game to the Packers. 2-3 wasn’t what Atlanta expected coming into this season, I know that. But they turned it around, and didn’t lose back-to-back games all season long. They finished the season with 10 wins, and toward the end, Julio Jones and Roddy White made one heck of a starting receiver duo. The Falcons started to open it up, and that’s why I like them in this one.

The Giants started 6-2 (somehow) then promptly lost 4 straight games before finishing the season with two wins over Dallas and a win over the Jets. Week 17 saw New York come out and beat up the Cowboys for a playoff spot, and now they host the Falcons. They could easily come out on top against Atlanta.

I just happen to like the Falcons a little more from a consistency standpoint. They might not wow me as much, but they don’t scare me nearly as much as the Giants do. Matt Ryan doesn’t make many terrible throws, and Michael Turner is nothing if not very consistent (and the 2nd leading rushing in the NFL this season). Julio and Roddy are very good and pose a huge problem for a Giants defense that has given up a lot down the field. The Falcons score more and give up less. They had a positive point differential this season – something the Giants can’t claim. I expect a road win in New York, Sunday Night.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ New York Giants

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants Wildcard Weekend NFL Free Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on January 8, 2012. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ Houston Texans

This is not a sexy game by any means, even if it does have a very successful rookie quarterback trying to pitch a gem for the Bengals and another back-up late round rookie signal caller trying to save the Texans on the other side. Yates has been a nice find for the Texans after injuries thrust him into the starting role. For the most part he’s been safe and solid, keeping the Texans grounded and making plays in a handful of important situations. The Texans have one heck of a rushing game.

And Dalton has been a fairly prolific passer in his first season out of TCU. His first year numbers of 3,398 yards, 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and 9 wins – make him a rare commodity in the NFL. Rarely do rookies produce at such a consistent and high level – especially red-heads…. Errr…. I mean quarterbacks. He doesn’t have a chance at rookie of the year (see Cam Newton), but quarterbacks are often judged by winning games and passing accurately – Dalton looks like he’s going to be good enough to do both during his career.

With a couple rookie quarterbacks, this game is going to come down to the rushing attack for both teams. If the Bengals can run it a bit, and stop the Texans, they’ll win. But if Houston can continue to be successful on the ground, they’ll come out victorious.

The Bengals have a good enough rush defenses – and Dalton is better than Yates – plus I’m getting points with Cincinnati – I have to take them.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans: AFC Playoff Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on January 7, 2012. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints NFC Wildcard Free Pick: I think 10 is a lot, but the Lions defense has impressed me none, and I know the Saints will disrupt some of that Lion offense we saw go off last week. No way Calvin Johnson is allowed to run roughshod over the Saints like he did against the Packers (minus a few key defenders). The Saints are smart and they took Calvin out of the game (for the most part – 6 catches for 69 yards) the first time these two teams played.

I like what the Lions have offensively, as Kevin Smith has been a nice running option out of the backfield and Matthew Stafford definitely has some nice weapons at his disposal, but it’s hard to believe that they can stay up with the Saints in New Orleans through 4 quarters. The Saints are just too damned consistent.

Defensively, neither team has been good this year. The Lions gave up half a billion yards to the Packers last week, and were beat up multiple times this year – but they usually are pretty solid in the secondary – though they can’t stop the run.

New Orleans uses a plethora of weapons at running back, and all three of them will get their turn to gash the Lions front 7. I expect a well rounded game from the Saints, but Brees will get his numbers and the Saints should win. Consistency wins in a game that ends up with the Saints winning by double digits.

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints (-10)

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints NFC Wildcard Free Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on January 7, 2012. Remember you can also Tweet This.