Green Bay Packers VS Kansas City Chiefs: NFL Free Pick

What can I say? I like what the Packers have done in the pre-season, not only with their first team (a group that won’t see much tick against the Chiefs) but with their second team as well. They have come in with that same aggressive approach, but with more running – and honestly, that’s what the starters should do to be more consistent – but that’s a coaching thing.

I like Matt Flynn, he’s been steady in the pre-season thus far, completing a high percentage of passes and keeping drives going by eliminating negative plays. He knows that one of his best weapons is going to be his running back, and Brandon Jackson has been running as good as ever. This team always drafts great, so they are stacked with talent – especially at receiver. If the 2nd string guys play a half, that’s two big time playmakers in James Jones and Jordy Nelson – there are teams that would trade their starters for those two guys straight up.

Defensively, the Packers might be a little shallow in this game – the starters won’t see much time, if any at all, and the team is hurting on that side of the ball a little anyway.

But that’s just thinking about the Packers – the Chiefs have been better, but they aren’t good. They are running the ball well, but KC’s quarterbacks just don’t take chances – that seems like a bad way to beat the Packers. KC is 0-3 so far this pre-season, and while they might give that extra effort to win a game (something they won’t do much of this season) – it’s hard for me to believe they’ll risk the health of their small speed-backs or Thomas Jones. So take their strength away and put them up against the Packs’ 2nd stringers. I don’t like their chances.

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Carolina Panthers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Preseason Week 4 Picks

I’m not real big on picking pre-season games, but for every single game ever played I’ve thought to myself, “Who has the best chance at winning?” Over the last handful of years I’ve changed from just winning to “how about that spread?” Even in the pre-season, I have an opinion – and rarely is it because one team is better than the other. If you pick the “better team” throughout the pre-season, you’ll likely be in the red before the regular season even starts. It’s week 4, a week where even fewer teams play their best players than usual. So I take that into account, here’s my thought process for picking the Steelers with a big spread.

The Steelers are the more aggressive team, both defensively and offensively, and the Panthers are pretty soft up front. Advantage Steelers.

This game will likely come down to who can run the ball and who can stop the ball. Pittsburgh doesn’t have an awesome run game, but it’s solid. The Panthers can’t stop the run. Advantage Pittsburgh.

The Panthers can run the ball as well as anyone, but… Neither of their stud RB tandem will play in this one, and the Steelers have always been great at shutting down their opponent’s rushing attack. Advantage Steelers.

The Steelers have Big Ben (who might very well play more than a series or two, because he might as well get his time in now seeing as though he’s going to miss 2-6 games to start the season because he was an idiot/jerk/moron/insert favorite expression), Dennis Dixon, and Byron Leftwich. All three are definitely capable.  The Panthers have Matt Moore, a rookie, and another guy you aren’t sold on. Me neither. None of those guys have the arm, confidence, or experience to make aggressive teams pay for being aggressive. Advantage Pittsburgh.

Yeah, I’ll take Pittsburgh.

Carolina Panthers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)

Buffalo Bills VS Detroit Lions: PreSeason NFL Free Pick

I like the Bills, because they are still trying to find their identity, and don’t have any stars to sit and rest before the regular season starts – they can’t be wasting time like that – so they’ll play their guys and covering a 4.5 in the pre-season when your starters are playing more snaps seems like a solid chance. Plus, the Lions are far from amazing.

Buffalo may have their starter figured out, and that is probably Trent Edwards, but it’s not like the position is his to keep forever – the Bills are a work in progress, and besides C.J. Spiller, they are probably willing to give everybody on their roster an extra look going into the pre-season. This is also a new coaching staff in Buffalo, so they need to use as much time as they are given to put in their new schemes. That’s just another reason to play your starters a little bit longer on Thursday Night.

The Lions have had a solid pre-season, seeing explosive football out of Jahvid Best, nice passing from the young sophomore quarterback, Matthew Stafford, and getting their WRs and TEs some solid looks. Defensively, the Lions have looked improved. They have some versatility in the front 7, and Mr. Suh looks to be every bit the stud they drafted #2 in this years’ draft.

I full expect the Lions to put up some points early, especially if the starters get a couple series – but the Bills will end up on top in this one, or at least covering that 5.5 point spread.

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Detroit Lions

Washington Redskins Betting Tips: 2010 NFL Team Preview

Washington Redskins
(+2550) – Odds to Win the Super Bowl
(Over 7.5, -125: Under 7.5, +105) – Over/Under Total Wins
(+145) – Odds to Win Division

No team has had a bigger off-season turnover in terms of excitement. Rather that will translate to wins or not is a good question, but nobody can argue about the off-season hype train that is still chugging along in Washington. First it was Mike Shanahan taking over for Jim Zorn, a move that most certainly has some upside for Redskins’ fans. Shanny, or Splinter (as I call him), had heaps of success in Denver, taking the Broncos to 2 Super Bowls, plenty of playoff appearances, and a plethora of impressive rushing attacks. Then there was Donovan McNabb’s trade to Washington. Suddenly the Redskins had a coach and quarterback tandem with a resume of success at this level – something they haven’t had in years. But that doesn’t mean they’re going to jump to the top of one of the best divisions in football. I’m sure the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants have something to say about that. There’s still plenty of question marks in Washington. How about that offensive line? It doesn’t look great – but can Shanahan’s cut/zone blocking scheme make that group better? It’s very possible. Defensively, the Redskins were actually pretty solid. They finished 8th against the pass and 16th against the run, which is pretty good considering how little they moved the ball offensively. The Redskins were in a lot of games last year despite winning just 4. They lost only 3 games by more than 10 points. Five of their losses were by 3 points or less. Will Splinter and McNabb make a touchdown difference in Washington? It wouldn’t be crazy to think so, and this team is very talented (even if they are getting old). I wouldn’t risk much on the Redskins, but I don’t think they’re much of a bet on either side of the winning wagers. They have close to a 50-50 to win at least 8 games, but that’s the only wager I’d even consider if I was putting money down on the Skins. In the end, I like the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles more than I like Washington – so 7 or less looks like the better win total to me.

Tennessee Titans Betting Tips: 2010 NFL Team Preview

Tennessee Titans
(+2550) – Odds to Win the Super Bowl
(Over 7.5, -125: Under 7.5, +105) – Over/Under Total Wins
(+170) – Odds to Win Division

I think the Titans have a real good shot to do some damage in the AFC this season. They don’t have that same dynamic defense they had a couple years ago (2008) when they dominated and started the season 10-0 before losing in the 2nd round of the playoffs to the Baltimore Ravens. But I think their offense is a lot better. Everyone knows how down-right untouchable Chris Johnson is at times – one of the fastest running backs of all time, and great vision as well. But it’s not all about Chris. Vince Young came into his own last season when he got that all-important 2nd chance from Jeff Fischer. After starting 0-6, Jeff went to Vince for a boost, and the former Texas star led the team to an 8-2 finish. Young was solid as a runner again, and defenses seemingly had no chance to stop both him and Chris Johnson – but Young also found his throwing arm. 2009 was the first season Young threw more touchdowns than interceptions, and his 82.8 QB Rating was the highest of his career by nearly 12 points. The Titans face a tough first-half schedule, but they should be able to pick up a handful of wins in the 2nd half of the season, after the bye week. Winning 8 games is very likely, making the -125 bet one of my favorite as far as over/under wagers are concerned. It’s always tough to bet against the Colts, so I won’t – even if that +170 division champion bet has some interest. Peyton is too good, and I don’t know if the Titans have enough defensively to make that bet. As far as chances to win the whole deal, I will give the Titans a shot. That’s right, I won’t say that about many teams, but they have a shot – even if it is from way, way downtown. Look for Kenny Britt to take a step forward by the 2nd half of this season – he’s too physically gifted and an ideal target for Vince Young.

St. Louis Rams Betting Tips: 2010 NFL Team Preview

St. Louis Rams
(+17250) – Odds to Win the Super Bowl
(Over 7.5, +155: Under 7.5, -175) – Over/Under Total Wins
(+200) – Odds to Win Division

Oh St. Louis – may you win a handful of games and be grateful for it! This team will not win 7.5 games, so while the -175 doesn’t get anybody excited in terms of payouts, it’s basically free money. Crazier things have happened, but come on, the Rams will need to get lucky to win 6 games, winning 8 would make them lotto-lucky. Winning 10 and taking the division, come on, stay away from that one please!!! Even in the West, there is NO WAY the Rams beat out the Hawks, 49ers, and Cardinals. One – possibly. Two – very unlikely, but you never know. Three – nope. I love Sam Bradford’s game, and have always thought he’d be a great quarterback at the next level. His vision is legit, and his timing and touch are both very good. He throws to receivers before they are open, and has an arm strong enough for all the throws. But he’s still a young QB on a bad team with mediocre options around him. Even Peyton couldn’t do much with the Colts when he first got the nod. Steven Jackson will help, the guy is a beast. And the Giants defense is in good hands with their young defensive minded head coach, Steve Spagnuolo. But do the Rams have enough to consistently win games? I don’t believe so. This was a team ranked 20th or lower in all major categories, including 25th and 27th in opponents’ pass and rush yards against, and 28th in their own passing attack. You can’t tell me that any rookie QB is going to come in and light the world on fire through the air, even with a future as bright as Sam’s. Some QBs succeed early, but they always have a solid team around them – so good, luck Sam!

Seattle Seahawks Betting Tips: 2010 NFL Team Preview

Seattle Seahawks
(+6550) – Odds to Win the Super Bowl
(Over 7.5, +115: Under 7.5, -135) – Over/Under Total Wins
(+200) – Odds to Win Division

The Hawks were first in opponents’ offside penalties at home last year – and that’s about all they can take away from last season. Nice. But Jim Mora is gone, Pete Carroll is in, and enter the Pee-Hawks dynasty… Okay, so maybe it’s not that easy, but it’s still a sweet name. Carrol dumped USC just in the nick of time, and quite honestly, he took over the Hawks with perfect timing as well. Taking over for Mora with an owner on your side that will spend freely and give you the reigns – you bet! But these are still the Seahawks, here. They gave up a ton of yards and garnered very few. They don’t have a strong offensive line, a solid running game, a dominant aspect of their defense, or even a good kicking game. But they have a chance, they play in the NFC West! And they have talent – lots of it. Just about everyone on the team battled injuries last season, and they have some big time talented upgrades on the team. Mike Williams and Golden Tate, one a talented guy that can be easily described as a bust thus far, and the other a youngster from Notre Dame, are big time playmakers at WR. And the last time Carrol and Williams worked together, big things happened. Leon Washington was also brought in, and if he returns to full speed, he’s a huge playmaker in the Reggie Bush mold at running back. Russell Okung has dominant stuff at Left Tackle (though he’s a rookie) and Earl Thomas is expected to be awesome in all aspects at safety. This team still has TJ Houshmandzadeh and Deion Branch at WR, and John Carlson at TE – and Matt Hasselbeck isn’t too far away from being a Pro Bowl QB. There are weapons here, lots of them. And that doesn’t even take into account the return of a healthy Lofa Tatupu and a year of seasoning for the ultra explosive Aaron Curry. But there are holes and questions, no doubt, on the offensive line and defensive line, and last time I checked, those things are important. Oh, and the secondary too… But I’d rather bet +200 on the Hawks winning the West than -260 on the 49ers, I’m not sure much talent separates those two teams. Super Bowl chances aren’t there, sorry Hawk fans. I’m not crazy about over/under with the Hawks either – I don’t see much value either way. I’d probably have to go under 7.5, but I could see the Hawks winning 9 as well. Tough call!

San Francisco 49ers Betting Tips: 2010 NFL Team Preview

San Francisco 49ers
(+3050) – Odds to Win the Super Bowl
(Over 8.5, -145: Under 8.5, +125) – Over/Under Total Wins
(-260) – Odds to Win Division

This is the 49ers year. There it is, finally, after a couple years of “maybe they’ll break through, maybe they’ll get the NFC West crown, maybe etc” the 49ers look like the team to beat in the NFC. And despite me labeling them the favorites, I don’t think I’d touch this bet. The 49ers haven’t proven to me that they are good enough to be a -260 bet to win anything, let alone an entire division. I think the Hawks and even more so the Cardinals have a fair shot at taking the title, so no thanks on that one. I think the 49ers will win 9 games at least, maybe even 10, but they’re probably not good enough to blow that 8.5 out of the water, and at -145, I’m not crazy about that bet either. They were a couple big plays away from winning a couple more games last season (Brett Favre throw with 2 seconds left, anyone?) but they have questions. It’s tough to give a team 9 wins with questions at quarterback and offensive line. Sure, many expect Alex Smith to take another step forward this season – and the 49ers went big on offensive line the draft (picks 11 and 17 overall), but they are far from sure at either spot. I think they are good enough to do some major damage, and there’s not a better guy in football than Mike Singletary – and he’s surely getting his team ready to win big games – but I don’t see the 49ers as a Super Bowl team either. I would stay away from the futures bets on San Francisco.

San Diego Chargers Betting Tips: 2010 NFL Team Preview

San Diego Chargers
(+925) – Odds to Win the Super Bowl
(Over 10.5, -140: Under 10.5, +110) – Over/Under Total Wins
(-320) – Odds to Win Division

The San Diego Chargers let the face of their franchise walk, and it was probably the best move for the team. Philip Rivers now takes over for LaDainian Tomlinson as the unquestioned leader of the Chargers, and he might prove to be the right man for the job. Rivers became the focal point of the Chargers offense last season when the running game failed to live up to expectations – and the biggest winner from that decision was Antonio Gates. He’s still Rivers’ favorite target, and with Vincent Jackson headed straight toward a long-term holdout, that will likely stay the same. The Chargers retained Darren Sproles to help with RB duties, but they also drafted Fresno State’s Ryan Matthews in the middle of the 1st round and plan on making him a huge part of their rushing attack. Malcom Floyd has shown promise here and there, and many think he can take over just fine for Vincent’s spot in the starting line-up. I just don’t like the Chargers enough defensive to think they can win a Super Bowl. At +925 they are damn near favorites to raise the trophy in the winter of 2011 – but I don’t buy it. I don’t think LT lost as much of a step as his blah numbers would imply – I just think this offensive line is struggling. I see the Chargers being a little better defensively this time around, but they are still far from an elite unit – as you never know what they’ll get with rookies. I’d like this team a lot better if Marcus McNeill and Vincent Jackson were signed and ready to play, but their absence hurts this entire offense – something I’m not willing to over look, and that’s why I’m staying away from any Chargers’ bets prior to the season. I think UNDER 10.5 wins for +110 is a decent bet. The Chargers could easily lose a couple more games this year and still win the AFC West.

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Tips: 2010 NFL Team Preview

Pittsburgh Steelers
(+2250) – Odds to Win the Super Bowl
(Over 8.5, -115: Under 8.5, -105) – Over/Under Total Wins
(+225) – Odds to Win Division

The Steelers will be without their star quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, for the first few games of the regular season. Right now he’s scheduled to make 6, but Big Ben has been impressing the Commissioner since he was accused of rape, and that suspension might come down from 6 to 3 or 4 or who knows? The bottom line is that Pittsburgh will have to play the first couple games without their Super Bowl winning QB. Three out of their first four games are tough ones. They start at home against Atlanta then head to Tennessee to play the Titans. They head to Tampa in a game they should easily win, even without Big Ben, but then play another home game against Baltimore on October 3rd. The Steelers will be lucky to go 2-2 over their first 4 games. They don’t have the toughest schedule in the league, but it’s no cake-walk either – playing Baltimore and Cincinnati four times every year is no easy feat. The Steelers need to be better defensively if they play on making it back to the playoffs in 2010. They cut Santonio Holmes and now will head into the season with Hines Ward and Mike Wallace out wide. Rashard Mendenhall takes over the running back duties full time, and after his breakout performance in 2009, many expect the former Illinois running back to put up big numbers this season. The Steelers improved their mediocre offensive line in the draft by getting C/G Maurkice Pouncey from Florida. The big Gator center should catch on quick and help the Steelers where they struggled most over the years. I think the Steelers have a better chance at a Super Bowl than they do the division – but both are bettable. I’m not sure the Steelers are good enough up front win the big one, but they are improved, and that defense should get back to causing turnovers in 2010. This could be a scary team when Big Ben returns!

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