NFL Pre-Season Free Pick REVIEW: Week 4

Well, yet another winning week made it 3 out of 4 for me in the NFL pre-season. I’m not going to yack about it too much, but this is how the story went - gotta keep records…. I finished the pre-season 10-6-1.

New York Jets @ Philadelphia Eagles(-3):

The Eagles were up 13-3 in this game, but the luck of the 3rd stringers couldn’t hold on. An 11 yard touchdown pass to Paul Raymond with 2:25 to go in the 1st half gave me a little taste of things to come, and it was a late Jesse Chatman touchdown run that gave the Jets a 27-20 win in Philly. My only favorite lost - I should have gone all underdogs apparently.

Detroit Lions (+3) @ Buffalo Bills:

The Bills had more yards (both passing and rushing), first downs, a better 3rd down efficiency, and just about everything else besides score. That’s where the Lions came out victorious, 14-6. Buffalo couldn’t put points on the board, and were busted twice for safeties, giving away nearly as many points as they scored on those plays alone. The Lions scored 14 first half points and that was enough to finish off the BIlls.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens:

The offensively challenged Ravens continued their frustrating pre-season - but at least Joe Flacco looked good enough to be named the opening day starter. Not that the Ravens had a choice, he’s the only healthy signal caller left on the roster. Anyway, the Falcons got a touchdown pass from D.J. Shockley and that was enough to cover the spread. The 3rd quarter field goal was just icing as the Falcons won by a point.

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:

I had a feeling that half point would come in handy. Amazing how that works - I loved the Panthers at +3.5 and only thought them decent at +3 - and this is why folks. Jeff Reed hits a 43 yarder to win it, and everyone’s a winner - except the Panthers of course. Anyway, Pittsburgh won by 3 and I won by the good old .5.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys:

With the Cowboys up 3, Nick Folk kicked a 52 freaking yarder to go up 6 points and finish off my push. Damn kickers! Ha. Folk and the Cowboys brought me to 3-2 on the week and 10-6-1 overall during the pre-season. Lost here, but won a chicken dinner with my nice pre-season work.

Free NFL Picks: Week 1

I’m back with my free picks. Absolutely free and I’m picking every single game every single week. Last season we tried something a little different and I just couldn’t fall in love with withholding my best picks so I’m just flinging them all out there for you see. I have a lot of road teams in week 1, and while I’m never a huge fan of that, I can’t fluctuate just because the road team looks good in Week 1. Every season is a new one and here’s to hoping this year is a great one. Follow along every week for my free picks… Enjoy the show! 

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-3): I don’t like the Giants, so don’t expect this pick to be indicative of my future picks - but how can you not like them to win the opener? Okay, so they lose Strahan and Osi is out for the season -that could definitely have a trickle down draining effect on what became a very good defense. They also lost Gibril Wilson (don’t care) and Kawika Mitchell (good player, but not great). They still have a very good set of corners and a talented offense all around the depth chart. The Redskins could become a solid unit later in the season, but early on I still expect them to make mistakes with their new systems. Jim Zorn is a good coach, and Jason Campbell should flourish under his tutelage, but Zorn is no miracle worker and the Skins should still struggle to find consistency. Osi’s absence won’t hurt the Giants against the run, which is where Washington holds most of their strength. Expect the Giants to grind one out to open the season, and get their first win of the season. I don’t think they’ll make it back to the playoffs, but a Week 1 home game as a 3 point favorite - I’ll take it.  

Cincinnati Bengals  (pk) @ Baltimore Ravens: I really dislike both of these teams. I didn’t like either much to start with, but then I was basically forced to watch a couple of each team’s pre-season games. Gross. I would say that no team played worse than the Bengals during the pre-season, but I don’t think I could back that up if someone brought up the Ravens. Baltimore never scored more than 16 points in a pre-season game, and the offense seemed to get worse the longer they worked together - putting up 16, 15, 10, and 9 disrespectfully. The Bengals’ 1st team offense looked terrible in each of the three games they made appearances in. Carson Palmer looked lost and their was no timing or flow offensively. Chad Ocho Cinco got hurt, and TJ Houshmandzadeh never played. If I took totals I would roll with the under - but I’m picking sides here and the lesser of two evils is Cincinnati as a pick-em. The Bengals have taken the last three games in this match-up and 6 of their last 7 overall against the Ravens. I also like what Chris Perry brings to their offense - and I know he’s healthy to start this game. In a game where both teams should fight to score, I like the Bengals to win a battle or two. 

New York Jets (-3) @ Miami Dolphins: I don’t care that Chad Pennington is playing his old team and really wants to stick it to them. I don’t care that the Jets don’t have a good defense and that their rushing attack sputtered all of last season. I don’t even care about Brett Favre joining the Jets. This is what I care about: The Jets weren’t a terrible team last season. They lost 12 games last season, sure, but seven of those losses came by a touchdown or less. That means they had something. Like I said, Brett’s addition hasn’t wooed me into taking the Jets, but Alan Faneca’s signing has sure helped. The Jets have a pretty good couple of young studs on the o-line, and now they have one of the top 3 guards in the NFL to help them grow. The Fins lost their best tackler (Zach Thomas), their best pass rusher (Jason Taylor), and they’re coming off a 15 loss season that almost made them famous. Yes sir, I don’t care that 70% of the public is on this game, I will be taking the Jets. 

Kansas City Chiefs (+17) @ New England Patriots: Honestly, this comes down to two things. I know the Chiefs are going to pound the ball and run clock like it’s their freaking job. I also know that Tom Brady’s injury is worrying me. It’s like he never healed. He’s been sleeping with a gorgeous model and vacationing since his “best team ever” lost the Super Bowl to Little Eli’s Giants, and his ankle is still bothering him. Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure he’ll play, but how important will it be for them to keep him in if the Pats are up two touchdowns late? I just don’t see it and I don’t see the Patriots doing everything they can to put up 50 points a game either. Take the Chiefs if you’re picking this game because there are so many ways the Chiefs can cover a 17 point spread, I don’t even know where to start. I also don’t like the fact that New England went ahead and picked up a bunch of cut-scraps from around the league. I’ve also decided that 17 point favorites aren’t a good value in pro-football. If you are a Patriotic believer, I advise you sit this one out - but if you’re willing to roll with the dog, the Chiefs look like a decent value on the road.  

Houston Texans (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Maybe it’s because I’m an old offensive guard, but I have a feeling that Alen Fanneca’s absence will hurt the Steelers just as much as his place in New York will help the Jets. You saw what happened to the Hawks rushing attack when Steve Hutchinson headed to Minnesota, and you saw what the Vikings run-game looked like with Steve manning the left guard spot. Look for the Steelers to be less of a running team than ever before. That will hurt them against a very good Texans pass-rush. And despite the Texans inability to acquire a sure-thing starting running back, I think their offense is a scary group. Schaub will only be better in his second season. Andre Johnson is an absolute best. Owen Daniels is a tough TE to guard. Kevin Walter proved his worth in the second half of last season. Jacoby Jones is talented. And honestly, I really like the duo of Steve Slaton and Chris Taylor - call me crazy, but I do. Pittsburgh has the toughest schedule in the NFL, and this is supposed to be one of their easiest games of the season - but it’s not going to be a pushover. I like the Texans to hold tough if not win outright in Pittsburgh - and that makes me love all those points. The one thing that has me questioning myself is the Texans on the road versus the Steelers at home. The Steelers only lost to the Jaguars in Pittsburgh last season, having their way with most other opponents. The Texans won just two games on the road, versus a bad Panthers team and an even worse Raiders team. They didn’t lose by less than 8 in any of their road losses. I’m not a lover of last years’ numbers, so I’m not changing my pick here - I’m just warning you readers. 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (+3): I like the Jaguars to finish the season strong and very possibly take the division from the Colts this year - but I’m not so sure how they’re going to fair in this contest. The Titans are a very tough defense that plays inspired at home. I know the Jaguars are solid, and they’ve looked very good in the pre-season compared to the Titans who have looked absent, but Tennessee as a 3 point dog at home against a beat up Jaguars offense? I can’t find any value in the Jaguars here, so the bet has to go with Tennessee. 

Detroit Lions (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons: This game isn’t going to be a blowout, but I don’t see the Falcons having enough secondary talent to keep the Lions receiving corps out of the end-zone. I like the Falcons more than most, and am not crazy about the Lions - I just don’t think this is a good match-up for Atlanta. The Falcons will find success on the ground, but Detroit will eventually realize that they can pick on the rookie quarterback a little bit - stack the box a lot - and end up winning this game by a touchdown or more. I like Mike Turner a lot and think he will put up some nice yardage totals against the Lions - I just don’t think the Falcons air attack is scary enough and thus the Falcons won’t score enough to take this game. Go with Detroit in this one.

Seattle Seahawks (+1) @ Buffalo Bills: The Seahawks defense is really good. Marcus Trufant is one of the best corners in the league, and I have to think he’ll be able to lockdown Lee Evans. Kelly Jennings will be even better this season, and the Hawks return every single secondary player from last season’s starting group. Deon Grant proved to be a great addition and Bryon Russell does everything well. The Hawks don’t do as well on the road, but going to Buffalo to start the season isn’t as tough as it would be in November, so they should feel lucky. Seattle won’t have either of their projected starters at receiver, as both Branch and Engram are out for the first couple weeks, but a running duo of Maurice Morris and Julius Jones should be enough to do some damage against the Bills defensive front. Also, expect Nate Burleson to have a nice game against a young secondary. The Bills will have too much trouble putting points on the board and the Hawks should walk out of Buffalo with an ugly win in Week 1. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints: The Saints aren’t a good home team, they don’t have a good defense, they are going through yet another hurricane in New Orleans, and the Bucs are just flat out better than New Orleans. Sure, Jeff Garcia might be a little rusty after getting barely any action in the pre-season, but he’s a guy that doesn’t make mistakes and is as tough as quarterbacks get. The Bucs offensive line is a very tough group that loves to dig into opposing defenses. The Bucs have won 5 of their last 6 match-ups with the Saints against the spread. Tampa Bay may have an aging defense, but they know how to come out of the gates spry and ready to play. 

St. Louis Rams (+8.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles: What can I say? I really like the Rams as a huge dog in Philly. The Eagles aren’t great out of the gates, and they love to take opponents lightly (see team past). They are hurting to start the season without anybody proven to catch the ball besides their running back. The Eagles should still win this game, but it’s coming down to the end. They don’t have a rushing attack powerful enough to run the Rams out of it, and St. Louis can keep it close with a pretty solid run game of their own. They struggled last year, but people need to remember that this is basically the same rushing attack that did a ton of damage in 2006. The Eagles run-defense isn’t good. Don’t believe for a second that picking up a corner for 60 million bucks makes your run-defense stout again. With a spread that seems to be growing by the day, I don’t know if it’s better to wait a little longer or just get it while you can - but i like the Rams at anything 7 points or greater and you can find that everywhere. 

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) @ Cleveland Browns: I don’t know if I’m willing to buy the Cowboys as this season’s Super Bowl favorite, but I will tell you that I’m ready to purchase the Browns as this year’s big disappointment. I liken the Browns to New Orleans last year - and this game is going to be a tough one for them. I think Marion Barber is going to be a beast this season, starting in Cleveland with that revamped Browns defense. Yeah, I don’t buy it I guess. I don’t think you can buy a bunch of high-priced free agents and turn your defensive unit from goo to gold - but that’s just me. The Cowboys are going to have a much better defense this season because they absolutely stole an explosive cover man. Sure, Pacman Jones isn’t citizen number one, but while he’s on the football field he’s causing problems for opposing offenses and special teams. Jones is a playmaker and that will be on parade all season long. I’m one of the few guys thinking Pacman isn’t going to slip up anytime soon. Too much to lose, every guy has his epiphany and I think Jones had it. Romo is as good as I thought he’d be and TO is ready to do more than ever. I like the Cowboys to win this game by double digits. I found a great line at BetEd, but I’d still take the Cowboys around -5.  

Carolina Panthers (+10) @ San Diego Chargers: I finally think the Panthers might be ready for that next step this season. Ha. It seems like that is said every single year, but I haven’t heard much of that coo-aid this time around. But I kind of like Carolina to put up a battle in this one. The Panthers have shown me throughout the pre-season that they can run the ball with effectiveness as both DeAngelo Williams and rookie running back Jonathan Stewart look solid. I know Steve Smith is out for this game, but DJ Hackett and Mushin Muhammad are two solid options for Delhomme on the outside. The Panthers defense is the unit that looks good to me. Peppers will be better after a down season and Jon Beason is going to be one heck of a linebacker in this league. Look for the Panthers to stay within single digits and give an overhyped Chargers team a run for their money on opening day. Plus, the Panthers are always solid value as a dog - history says that, when healthy, the Panthers are a great dog to take for a walk. 

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers: Look at Kurt Warner’s numbers against the 49ers last season - you laughing yet? If I’m not mistaken, the old man threw for 484 yards in that game. This year, the 49ers are under the giveaway happy Martz philosophy, so that means more scoring chances for the Cardinals. I’m never sold on either of these teams, but I will tell you this, while Martz addition seems to do wonders for fantays teams all across the nation, it doesn’t do much for the prospect of picking his new team against the spread. Over the total? Maybe - but a lot of throwing the ball and not much running only works when you have guys like Randy Moss and Tom Brady - not J.T. O’Sullivan and Josh Morgan. Giving points on the road isn’t always a grand value, but the only value I see in this game is with the Cardinals. They have a more efficient offense and a defense that can make plays. 

Chicago Bears (+10.5) @ Indianapolis Colts: I found 10.5 in this game and I am that much happier because of it. The Colts defense looked bad during the pre-season, really bad, and while that doesn’t always mean the world is falling, I can’t see it as a good sign of things to come. I’m not sure Peyton will hold up in a bunch of shootouts this season, so I expect the Colts to use their running game early and often. I think Kyle Orton is a relatively mistake free quarterback and that bodes well for the Bears covering as big dogs. I think Chicago will actually run the ball pretty effectively against the Colts, even though the Bears don’t have a stellar offensive line. Indy doesn’t have a lot of help in the secondary, and if they put their corners in a tough spot Chicago will find a way to take advantage - even with Orton and no real #1 receiving threat on the team. Manning will be slow to come back, and despite what he wants you to believe, he’s not 100%. I’ll take the Bears. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-2): The Vikings lost a huge hunk of their rushing attack when the Vikings lost Bryant McKinnie to a 4-game suspension. That won’t help against a great Packer defense. The Packers have the cover corners to put most of their attention on the Vikings rushing attack. That’s not good news for Viking fans. A lot of people like the VIkings in this one, but I think they are ignoring the prospects of back-up offensive tackles going up against Aaron Kampman and the Packer’s linebacking crew. That’s not a good match-up for the Vikings in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers is better than anyone is giving him credit for, but on this team he won’t have to be. Aaron won’t take all the big chances that Brett took, and while he won’t be as flashy or tally up the numbers like #4, he will give the Packers a great chance to win each time he takes the field. Don’t give up on the Packers just because Brett is wearing a different color green. 

Denver Broncos (-1) @ Oakland Raiders: This is a tough one for me. I’d like to believe that the Raiders can run all over the Broncos porous rush-defense and that Oakland’s secondary will be a good match-up for Jay Cutler and a receiving corps missing their best player - Brandon Marshall. You know what, I do believe that, and that’s why this game is so tough for me. The think pushing me back over and eventually making me pick the Broncos is the Raiders run defense. What run defense am I talking about? That one that is B-A-D. The Broncos really know how to run the ball, and Selvin Young can get it done in Oakland. JaMarcus Russell won’t take too many chances, but when he does you can bet Champ Bailey and Dre Bly will be there to make him pay for it. Denver’s the better team on opening night, but the Raiders could mature as the season moves forward. Take Denver in this one.

NFL Pre-Season Free Picks: Week 4

It’s the final week of the pre-season and the real stuff can’t come soon enough. Injuries are ruining more than a few seasons, including the super-bowl champs… This week we get a Super Bowl re-match, but don’t get ahead of yourself, it’s just the pre-season. A couple teams have been good and a few have been bad, lets see if I can’t pick the winners and shed the losers in my last week of pre-season picks…. As it seems I’m rootin’ hard for the underdog in 4 of 5 contests. Go dogs!

New York Jets @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3) (8-28): I like the Eagles to take this one. The Jets first team has looked solid this pre-season, but after that it’s more of a free-for-all. The defense isn’t stellar and 2nd year QB Kevin Kolb is a nice player that should take advantage of the Jets secondary. Wide open spaces, no doubt. I also like Ryan Moats, Tony Hunt, and Correll Buckhalter to find some running room against Jets 2nd teamers. Take the Eagles in this one.

Detroit Lions (+3) @ Buffalo Bills (8-28): Dan Orlovsky is a solid back-up that should have plenty of room to throw it around while visiting Buffalo. The Lions have had the attitude of a winning team all pre-season, and I’m sure coach Rod Marinelli doesn’t want to lose that momentum in their last exhibition game. I like the Lions young defense to get some big turnovers early while the offense will capitalize. It doesn’t hurt that Trent Edwards will likely be out again for the Bills.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-28): Look for Matt Ryan to outshine Joe Flacco in this one. It should be interesting, both rookies could easily be starting during Week 1 for their respective teams, yet both will likely play into the second half. That’s rare in Week 4 of the pre-season. I’ve decided to like the Falcons more than most, and Ryan has impressed me. I also love Jerious Norwood, Harry Douglas, and Laurent Robinson - all young playmakers that will see time on Thursday. Look for the Falcons to pass it around on a suspect Ravens secondary.

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (8-28): I expect the Steel-show to sit Big Ben for this entire game, and that leaves Byron Leftwich to get major playing time. I’ve always liked Byron, but he’s looked bad lately. Look for the Panthers to run the ball well against the Steelers - that will kill Pittsburgh and give the Panthers a nice 1st half lead. Carolina’s rushing attack has been very efficient this pre-season.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys (8-28): The Cowboys 2nd team, offensively and defensively, is brutal. I like the Vikings - they have some nice youngsters that will get time in this one. Gus Frerotte is a good back-up that will get some meaningful snaps and Booty isn’t a bad option at #3. Dallas is the better team in this one, no doubt, but after a couple series it’s who has the better 2nd and 3rd team, and that’s surely the Vikings. Take Minnesota to beat the Boys.

NFL Pre-Season Free Picks Review: Week 3

After 3 weeks of pre-season football I’m 7-4-1. Week 3 was my first losing week of the season as I finished 2-3 with a little bad luck from my friends. This is what Week 3 looked like…

San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears (-3):Kyle Orton and Reshied Davis were dealing early, and I thought I was in good position to take this one with the Bears up going into the 2nd quarter. But, Rexxy Grossman let me down again - weird. J.T. O’Sullivan and his rocket cannon arm tore up the Bears secondary, and that secondary doesn’t look promising for the season. Alex Smith even tossed a touchdown in the 2nd half, and basically beat me. Yes, Alex Smith beat me. Ugh. One game, one loss…

Tennessee Titans (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons: Vince Young was brutal, Chris Johnson didn’t break one, and even Kerry Collins was 1 for 8 - maybe the Falcons aren’t as bad as everyone thinks they are? Hmm… That might be something to keep in mind to start this season. Matt Ryan looked confident and accurate against a solid TItans defense, completing 15 of 21 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown pass to fellow rookie Harry Douglas. That right there was enough to oust the Titans as Tennessee managed just 3 points all night. This was a big miss.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5) @ New England Patriots: Bet against the Pats when they don’t have Tom Brady - I don’t care if it’s the pre-season, regular season, or off-season - without Tom they lose a lot of their luster. The Eagles looked solid against that old Pats defense, but don’t worry Pats fans, this is just the pre-season  - I’m sure Big Bill will get the damn thing figured out. A win for me!

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3): Just in, the Jaguars are going to be good. Garrard was accurate an efficient, and the Jags defense really made life hard for Jeff Garcia and the Bucs. Garcia did play and he threw 2 interceptions in his limited work. My 2nd big miss gave me my third loss of the week, making sure that I’d be under .500 for the first time this year.

New Orleans Saints (-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals: “Boy oh boy the Bengals have looked bad. And it’s not just their running game, Carson Palmer has been inconsistent and timid in the pocket. I think the Saints will dominate this game against a confused Bengals club.” Neither of these offenses looked deadly, but the Bengals were downright pathetic. They didn’t score a once, against the freaking Saints - it’s not looking good in Cinci. Back to the Bungles! This was an easy win that I really needed this week.

NFL Free Picks: Pre-Season Week 3

So, there’s some more thought that goes into Week 3 pre-season football. At first I’m doing my best to hunt for camp competitions and general rules for pre-season action, but now, aside from a couple instances, my pre-season picks are based on where I’d go during the regular season. With starters playing an entire half, and possibly into the 3rd quarter, I have to expect the best teams to pull out of hte first half with an early lead. I’m not ignoring 2nd teamers, but they are getting less consideration this week. Here’s my Top 5 bets this week.

Thursday

San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears (-3): Here’s the deal; the 49ers put up loads of points last time out and they just aren’t that good offensively. I’m sure Frank Gore will get minimal action and he is the teams best player. J.T. O’Sullivan is starting again for the 49ers and he is expected to play into the 3rd quarter and basically has the starting job on lockdown. He’s been decent as a fighter but has never been “the guy” before now, so I’m not sure how he’ll handle it. Also, the 49ers are terrible. The Bears defense can put up points, and with Kyle Orton playing most of the game, Chicago’s mistakes won’t be there as much. I’m not a huge fan of Orton, but he does do enough to win football games or at least not lose them. Devin Hester is ready to go off in this game, and I can’t wait to see Matt Forte make some good plays for the Bears. In the 2nd half, I like Chicago as well. Say what you want about Rex Grossman, but he’s probably better than anything the 49ers have right now. He’ll be trying to prove himself late, and thus the Bears get the nod on Thursday.

Friday

Tennessee Titans (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons: The Titans are obviously the much better team here, and their biggest strength will stall the Falcons best offensive weapon, Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. Tennessee hasn’t gotten on track in the air yet, but Vince Young and Kerry Collins are solid options as 1 and 2 quarterbacks in this league, so I expect them to be on target in this contest. I like the receiver battle for playing time in Tennessee and the Titans are always full of young defensive weapons. Matt Ryan is starting and playing in this game into the 2nd half, and that’s probably not a good thing for Atlanta. He’s a good young leader and looks to be a fine prospect, but the last defensive line I want to go up against is one where Javon Kearse is the worst player. Yikes. I like Tennesse’s 1st and 2nd team more than either of Atlanta’s, and the Titans offense should come out with a little umph.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5) @ New England Patriots: The Eagles will win this game for a couple reasons. It’s amazing but even Andy Reid cares more about winning in the pre-season than Bill Belichick. Tom Brady is unlikely to play, and with so many aging vets on the squad, so are many other key players. The Eagles have an improved defense and you can bet that Asante Samuel is excited to prove himself against his old club. Donovan McNabb was a little off-target in last week’s pre-season match-up, so expect his on and off pre-season to go up this week. I like the foursome of running backs in Philly, and after Kevin Curtis it still looks like 5 Eagle receivers are competing for playing time. I would definitely take the Pats during the pre-season, but their exhibition season history has me once again going against them. Back to the well one time too many? We’ll see.

Saturday

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3): I have to like the Bucs to win this one. They are a team that does the little things right, takes nothing for granted, and generally plays mistake free football. Jeff Garcia hasn’t even played yet and this team is still 2-0 in the pre-season with some impressive play. Even if Jeff stays out for one more game, I like Brian Griese, Luke McCown, Chirs Simms, and rookie Josh Johnson as pre-season hurlers. The Bucs also have a pretty talented back-field duo in Earnest Graham and Michael Bennett - either will do a fine job on Saturday. Antonio Bryant is playing well, as he’s trying to get back in the swing of game speed, and Ike Hilliard, Maurice Stovall, and Warrick Dunn are all becoming threats as receivers. I like the Jags, and they are surely a tough squad, but I don’t expect their offensive stars to play much more than a quarter and defensively they just aren’t as tough in the pre-season.

New Orleans Saints (-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Boy oh boy the Bengals have looked bad. And it’s not just their running game, Carson Palmer has been inconsistent and timid in the pocket. I know I love the big red head and have always thought that his upside exudes that of the best quarterbacks in the league, but right now he looks lost. Chad is out for this game, so is TJ Houshmandzadeh, and with his two favorite targets out of the game I’m not sure Carson will even play that long. On the other hand, Drew Brees is on fire. He’s the most accurate quarterback in the league right now, and he’s a pre-season monster. Reggie Bush is trying to find himself, but I really like the receiver battle in New Orleans. Robert Meachem, David Patten, Lance Moore - these are all guys trying to grab the #2 job away from Devery Henderson, and honestly, I love it. I think the Saints will dominate this game against a confused Bengals club.

NFL Free Picks Review: Pre-Season Week 2

So, I’m no longer perfect, but I still took 2 of 3 this weekend, bringing my record to 5-1-1 to start the pre-season. Here’s how the dingo went down under.

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (OVER 37) (8-16-08)

“Like I said earlier, totals are a tough deal to dangle in the pre-season, but I have a feeling this one is a sure thing.” This game finished at 36. That’s not so bad, except for the fact that I am now just 2 points away from being undefeated during the pre-season. That’s because I ended up winning the last two games of the weekend. There was one play in this game that basically sealed my fate. The Broncos were up 14-10 in the middle of the 3rd quarter when they put together a drive and managed to get down to the 1 with 6 minutes and change left to play. A touchdown brings the total to 31 and my cover is well within range headed into the 4th quarter. Instead, the Broncos took the safe play and kicked a field goal to go up 10. Thats where the total got so far away. So, not only was I 2 points away from winning this total, but I was a single yard away from it. Damn numbers! I guess everyone needs to lose sometime - I just thought this was my Patriot-undefeated-year. So much for that; I couldn’t even make it out of the pre-season.

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) (8-17-08)

As I write this the Bucs are up 27-10 and just breaking into New England territory with about 5 minutes to play. Yes, its sport and anything can happen but I’m willing to chalk this one up as a win. The Patriots still don’t care to win pre-season games and will settle for winning the majority (or all) of games that count. Weird. Still, the Bucs looked good behind solid quarterbacking (19-25 as a group right now) and effective running. The Bucs have a good offensive line and an even better O-line coach. They have multiple runners with talent, and a bunch of receivers trying to make this team. They are a good bet in the pre-season, as shown once again. I win again!

Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-17-08)

“The Bengals didn’t look good when I watched their first pre-season contest.. …even the normally accurate Carson Palmer looked off. I’m sure Detroit’s defense will help him get back on track, but Detroit has a coach that plays to win, and in the pre-season, that’s a gamblers best friend.” What do you know? The Lions take one from a Bengals team that looked uninterested. Carson Palmer looked off again and not even Chris Perry could impress me. On the other hand, Jon Kitna had a flawless drive and Drew Stanton had a couple nice throws while Calvin Johnson looked like the awesome prospect he is. Marinelli likes to win, even in the pre-season. Remember that.

2-1 this week! 5-1-1 on the pre-season! Check in to see if I can’t keep it going next week.

Pre-Season Football: Week 2 Free Picks

After an undefeated 3-0-1 start to the pre-season, I’m feeling a little too confident in these late summer exhibition games - but since when is cocky bad in this business? This week I have a few winners that I really like and it all starts with Friday Night’s Raiders-Titans game.

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (OVER 37) (8-16-08)

Like I said earlier, totals are a tough deal to dangle in the pre-season, but I have a feeling this one is a sure thing. The Cowboys 2nd and 3rd units can’t stop anyone and the Broncos don’t have a collective group that can be considered a defense - they are more like a slow down. Denver can’t stop the run or the pass and their special teams isn’t looking all that flattering either. Dallas has a lot of strengths, but I still see Denver putting up a couple touchdowns on Saturday. Believe it! This one is sailing over the spread.

New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) (8-17-08)

The Patriots just don’t try to win these games. They won’t play most of their big names more than a couple series, and the Bucs have a solid all around team with some good young players looking for experience. They’ll have some good players putting in work, and with Garcia, Luke McCown, Chris Sims and more, they’ll have plenty of experienced quarterbacks to lead the way. I like the Bucs to win this home game easily.

Detroit Lions (+3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-17-08)

The Bengals didn’t look good when I watched their first pre-season contest. I like Chris Perry, but even the normally accurate Carson Palmer looked off. I’m sure Detroit’s defense will help him get back on track, but Detroit has a coach that plays to win, and in the pre-season, that’s a gamblers best friend. The Lions have decent back-up quarterbacks and Kitna is an accurate cat. Also, with 4-5 solid receivers and a couple running backs looking to make an impact - I like the Lions offense to put up some points in the zoo. A couple big plays could split this game wide open, but I like the Lions to be the guys making those plays.