2011 NCAA Bowl Week 1 Free College Football Picks Part 1

Bowl games start this week, Saturday, and while there aren’t any big name squads going at it in the first week of action, there’s still some good football to be played. A couple of these teams put together some nice finishes to become bowl eligible, and playing well at the end of the season is big (unless you have a 40 day layoff between games, then who knows how momentum will play out). Here’s how I see these first three games and I will post the last two soon.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl
The Temple Owls just have too much rushing attack in their arsenal for Wyoming. The Cowboys have one of the worst rush-defenses in all of college football and Temple hands the ball off 40+ times. Bernard Pierce is the workhorse back for the Owls, but they have a few very capable runners. They don’t throw it much, but I don’t think they’ll need to. Temple’s had an uncustomary good year, and I think that continues with a double digit win in the New Mexico Bowl.

Temple Owls (-6.5) VS Wyoming Cowboys

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Ohio is 9-4 and they have some buzz going into this game because 9 looks like such a nice number, and quite honestly, they’ve been pretty solid this year. They throw it pretty well and have a team-rushing attack that is decent, but Utah State out-rushes everyone, and they will out-rush the Bobcats. When they get beat on the ground, they struggle – the Bobcats, that is. Utah State should run to victory here.

Ohio Bobcats VS Utah State (-1.5)

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
There’s no question that Louisiana-Lafayette can score the football. They’ve put up points against everyone they’ve faced – but stopping their opponents is another story. Basically every time they’ve gone up against a solid offense, they’ve had trouble keeping the pace. They can score, but defensively they’ve given up so much that they need to play flawless offensively to win. SDSU runs the ball very well and passes it efficiently. I think the Ragin Cajuns are in for a tough time trying to stop the Aztecs.

San Diego State (-4.5) VS Louisiana-Lafayette

Army Black Knights VS Navy Midshipmen: Free Football Pick

The easy-to-find history is that Navy beats Army by a couple touchdowns every time they play – it seems to be as good as gold. I know the teams are more even this year, but that’s just another reason for Navy to not take their rivals for granted. Both teams rely on the rushing attack big time as neither squad boasts a quarterback with more than 775 yards passing. You never know, but Navy looks like the better team with a bigger threat at quarterback and a more established running game.

The Midshipmen are having a down year for them, and at 4-7 they are guaranteed a losing season. Still, this team has played tough with good opponents, and I can’t imagine the Knights will be able to stop their rushing attack.

This game could come down to which team can make the big plays offensively, and I can’t help but believe that Navy boasts the best big play possibilities, both through the air and on the ground. Navy can really run the ball as many teams in football at all levels try to base their rushing attack off the Midshipmen if they can’t out physical the opponent. It’s a hard-nosed scheme with great deception.

Navy has beaten Army by at least 2 touchdowns in each of their last 9 match-ups. This could very well be 10 straight?

Army Black Knights VS Navy Midshipmen (-7)

Free College Football Picks for Week 14 Conference Championship Week

Getting on with it! Here are my college football picks for Week 14 (Conference Championship Week). Enjoy!

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ Houston Cougars (-14)
The Cougars have killed me one too many time for me not to take them here. It seemed like my value meter had them taking a hit for like five straight weeks – but obviously, I ended up taking the hit. Right now their offense is too ridiculously explosive to go against them in a game that should very well score over 100 total points. Crazy, these Cougs! I’ll take them, finally.

Connecticut Huskies (+9.5) @ Cincinnati Bearcats
I don’t think the Bearcats are much better than the Huskies. Connecticut does well against teams like Cinci, and I think they stick with them enough here to make it a game. Goodness the Big East is bad.

Texas Longhorns (+3) @ Baylor Bears
I like the Bears and I sure hope they win – it’s just that they played perfect last week and I don’t see it happening again. Texas can really run the ball and that consistency, along with a couple big plays on defense, should give the Longhorns the upset.

Georgia Bulldogs @ LSU Tigers (-13.5) *
The Bulldogs have been very good down the stretch here. But they aren’t LSU or Alabama good. There are only two teams like that. Expect LSU to continue on their demolition of every team but ‘Bama.

New Mexico Lobos @ Boise State Broncos (-49)
This might be the definition of crazy, taking a team to win by more than 7 touchdowns – but I’ve been know to take a wild stab or two. My thinking is this, last regular season game for the Moore, he goes off for like 8 touchdowns like a boss.

Oklahoma Sooners (+3.5) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
I’m not sure which of these teams is better, but I watched Oklahoma State play last time they had a National Championship on the line – and that looked gross.

Virginia Tech Hokies @ Clemson Tigers (+7)*
The Hokies have been playing great and the Tigers have really hit a lull – but can Clemson really continue to turn the all over like they have the last 4 games? I don’t think they do, and because of that, I think they keep this one close.

Wisconsin Badgers @ Michigan State Spartans (+10)*
The Spartans won outright last time, even though Wisconsin looked like the better team to me. I know the Spartans usually poo themselves late in the year, so that could happen here. I just think they might be ready to take that next step and come to play. Plus, come on, the Badgers defense just isn’t very good.

Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies Apple Cup Pick

Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies Apple Cup Pick: The APPLE CUP!!! I know this game has been unreasonably close most years, regardless of talent or ranking or how good either team actually is. This is the game in Washington, the game where everyone in the state has a side. Washington State, the Huskies’ red-headed step brother, just doesn’t have the talent, the publicity, the bowl eligibility – they’re playing for this game and this game only, to show they belong with the Dawgs – but I’m not sure they do.

Sure, Washington State has played some good games this year, and you know they have plenty of solid athletes, enough to win this game if the football bounces the right way. But the odds can’t be on them covering this game. Their top two quarterbacks are out of the game. The best receiver on the team is also out. Offensively, they won’t be able to capitalize on the Huskies’ shortcomings.

The Huskies are playing for a step in the right direction, a winning season for the first time in a long time. I think these Dawgs will be ready to play, and if both these teams give it their best, it shouldn’t be much of a game in Seattle. Price is looking to get back on track for the Huskies, but it will be Polk running wild that gets the Huskies a double digit win in this one.

Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies (-8.5)

Tigers @ Gamecocks, Fighting Irish @ Cardinal, Bruins @ Trojans

Clemson Tigers (+4) @ South Carolina Gamecocks
One of the top 3 teams in the SEC probably beats the best team in the ACC 9 out of 10 times. But could this be that once? I think so. I think the Clemson Tigers laid such a large goose egg last weekend that they couldn’t possibly do anything but play their best football against South Carolina. I know the Gamecocks have a very good defense, but I think Clemson has the talent to put up some points on even the best of defenses.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Stanford Cardinal (-7)
I think the Cardinal are losing a little too much credit here after a tough loss to Oregon. This is still a very good football team, consistent, powerful up front, and one hell of a quarterback. I know Notre Dame has some talent, but I just don’t see them playing with Stanford for 4 quarters.

UCLA Bruins @ USC Trojans (-14)
It’s amazing how much this game means to the Bruins. From all the news about UCLA getting their coach fired, playing terrible, basically a non-existent team all season long – you’d think they were 0-12. Little does the rest of the world know that UCLA can clinch a spot in the PAC 12 Championship Game with a win over USC on Saturday. Not bad for a Bruin team with no offense, defense, or head coach job security. USC basically has nothing to play for – they ousted the Ducks last week, coming off that huge win with no post-season games available to them because of sanctions – all they have is this last game against lowly UCLA. That’s all fine and dandy, and maybe that does get the Trojans playing a little sloppy – but this team is super talented, playing great football, and waaayyy batter than the Bruins. I expect a slapping of baby blue face on southern California.

Week 13 2011 Free College Football Picks Against the Spread

Ohio State Buckeyes (+7.5) @ Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines have been very good lately, making me look silly week after week (kind of like Houston) but that doesn’t mean that I’ve giving in. I know that Vegas is begging me to take the Buckeyes when they give me that extra half point, but I just think averages play out here. The Buckeyes have certainly been up and down this season – I just think Saturday in Michigan will be an up-swing kind of day for the chestnuts. Hopefully I can stick it to Vegas with this one!

Georgia Bulldogs (-5.5) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia’s the better team even if they never really can meet expectations. Georgia Tech is pretty one-dimensional, as they always are, but I see the Bulldogs’ defense being able to slow the Yellow Jackets’ attack just enough to cover this spread.

Alabama Crimson Tide (-21) @ Auburn Tigers
Alabama has a lot to lose in this contest and Auburn can play one heck of a spoiler in one of the biggest rivalry games around – but is it possible? I really don’t think so. Auburn has played close in some games they probably shouldn’t have, even winning a couple of them, but the Tigers aren’t on the same level as the Tide, and I expect it to show early and often this weekend.

Florida State Seminoles (-1.5) @ Florida Gators
This used to be “The Game” when I was just getting into football. I saw a few wide rights and a wide left, a couple upsets, and some great games between two programs that were up and coming and dominating college football. The old ball coach was getting Rex Grossman to do good things, and the Seminoles had Peter Warrick making dirty cuts in the middle of the field. Those were the days. Neither program is on top right now, but both have the talent to make this one heck of a game. I just think Florida State has a more complete team, so they are the bet here.

Free Friday Night College Football Picks for Week 13 2011

Iowa Hawkeyes (+9.5) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
Iowa is pretty blah to me, really, they don’t do too much that impresses me, and Nebraska is surely the more talented team of the two – only they can’t really pass, and that kind of gives the edge to Iowa because they play smart enough to get their eggs in the run stopping basket as much as possible. I honestly don’t know if there’s much that separates these two teams. Both have been up and down all season long, and this game means a lot to both programs. I expect a close one.

Houston Cougars @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+3)
Oh, I don’t know, call it a hunch. I truly see two football teams that are just about as good as each other. I know the Cougars come in with all the hype because Case Keenum is one of the all time great college quarterbacks in terms of his numbers – but as far as football teams go, these two squads can both play ball. You add in all the hype that Houston gets coming into this game, and how Tulsa is almost ignored despite playing at home – my money’s on Tulsa. I’ve been around lots of sports on lots of levels and Tulsa is playing from a good mental place in this one.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ LSU Tigers (-11.5)
As I said in my newsletter, the Razorbacks are a good football team, it’s just that #1 and #2 (the two best teams in the Nation – I actually still think Alabama is the better of the two football teams, despite losing to LSU) are a lot better than everyone else. 11.5 points better, is the question. I think so. I just think LSU’s defense is so tough, and playing on such a high level, and conquering so much in terms of adversity all season long without shuttering – you just can’t go against them. I think they’ll beat the Razorbacks like they’ve beaten everyone else outside of Alabama – easily.

Texas Longhorns @ Texas A&M Aggies Thursday NCAA Free Pick

Texas Longhorns @ Texas A&M Aggies Thursday NCAA Free Pick: I haven’t been a fan of the Longhorns all season long. That’s helped me, for the most part, but now I’m flip-turning the script, because I think they’re being underrated this week. I know the Aggies are a dang good football team that can play with anyone, they’ve proven that all year long. But they’ve also proven that they can and will play with anyone – even teams that aren’t as good as they are. See, it’s not always a good thing.

The thing about Texas is they played pretty well last week, probably good enough to beat the Wildcats – they out-gained them on the ground and through the air, over +100 total yards for the day. The Wildcats are good at winning, so the close game ended in their favor, but Texas showed me a little bit there.

The big thing is, the Aggies have played close games ALL YEAR LONG. Why not now, in a big rivalry game, against a young but talented Longhorns team? It’s a big stage for a big game, and I see both teams letting it all go on Thursday Night. Two solid teams, big stage, Texas rivalry, the Aggies play close games – I don’t see how getting 8 points isn’t the best bet here. I’ll take the road dogs, the same team I’ve been betting against all year!

Texas Longhorns (+8.5) @ Texas A&M Aggies

USC Trojans @ Oregon Ducks Free Point Spread Pick & Preview

USC Trojans @ Oregon Ducks Free Point Spread Pick & Preview: I think my school has a good chance to stick with the Ducks throughout. I’ve yet to see exactly what all these smart people see with Matt Barkley, but I’m not stupid enough to question all of them. He certainly has controlled football games well; always given his team a chance, and he can make all the throws. This USC team is more talented than I thoguth they were going to be. They have the bodies to play with anybody in the country – I truly believe that.

The Ducks pose a huge challege for the Trojans, there’s no doubt about that. But the Trojans are the challenger in this one, because they are playing for nothing, no bowl game, no championship, no BCS trip to anywhere. They are on probation and that stuff is out. That being said, they are playing just for THIS game, and that’s big. They played lights out against Stanford and fell in overtime. I think the Trojans will give the Ducks more trouble than Stanford did.

I’ve never been a fan of Lane Kiffin (except for when he sued Al Davis over his contract – that was cool). There’s just something about him. But he’s getting his kids to come out and play good football down the stretch in a season with now post-season reward. I’m impressed. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won this game.

USC Trojans (+14) @ Oregon Ducks

Oklahoma Sooners @ Baylor Bears – Kansas State Wildcats @ Texas Longhorns

Oklahoma Sooners (-15) @ Baylor Bears
The Sooners are a very good team that gets stuck in their own shoes from time to time. They very well could come out in this game, on the road at Baylor, and get in an unnecessary shootout with the Bears. That could happen, no doubt. But the truth is that Oklahoma is an entire level (or two) above the Bears. I’ve seen Baylor be out-athleted a few times already this season, and Oklahoma is the most talented team they’ve played this year – so it could get ugly. I know that Robert Griffin III has become a surgeon with the football. He’s completing nearly 75% of his passes and has 29 TDs to just 5 INTs through the first 9 games of the season. But against the two most talented defenses he’s faced, his numbers haven’t been enough. They have a defense that gives up 36 points per game. That’s going to be an open invitation to the end zone for the Sooners.

Kansas State Wildcats (+8.5) @ Texas Longhorns
If you’ve followed my picks at all this year, you’ll know that I’m not real fond of the Longhorns, and quite frankly see them to be overrated. Well, they were. Now they are out of the Top 25 (though it may be by just a hair, and they’d move back in with a win this week). They just don’t do a ton of things real well, but they are athletic and talented, and there’s certainly some young upside with the Longhorns. The Wildcats are almost the opposite. They are seasoned and they are tough and they aren’t super talented or athletic. But they do a couple things really well. They hold the ball. They produce long drives and convert in 3rd down situations because it’s usually short yardage. Their quarterback is their leader, their motor, and he’s a good one that controls the game. I don’t know who I like to win, but 8.5 points seems like too much – even though one of my favorite systems says take the Longhorns. I just don’t believe in them this year, and this line is too high.

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