Free NFL Playoff Picks: Week 1

After a solid season that saw me finish 20+ games up, I figure I might as well give you my playoff picks as well- you know it’s been a weird season when not a single first round playoff game gives you a favored home team. Craziness!!! But I don’t see the favorites winning all four in Round 1 of the NFL Playoffs - oh no - I have two road winners and two home team victories - which is which is for you to find out… Good luck with your playoff bets!!!

Atlanta Falcons (-1) @ Arizona Cardinals: The Falcons have trouble with prolific passing teams. New Orleans, Denver, and Philadelphia combined to give Atlanta each of their three losses over the last 10 games of the season. Am I saying they can’t beat a passing team? Nope - they ousted the Packers, Saints, and Chargers already this season, so they have it in them, they just have more trouble with pass happy teams. And it doesn’t seem to be the passing game that kills them, but the threat of the pass that seems to really open up the run. The Saints, and Eagles both had big time rushing days against the Falcons, but I don’t see the Cardinals doing that. Even with the awesome production of Edgerrin James last week against the Seahawks, Arizona’s run game still doesn’t scare me much. I also don’t like how the Cardinals gave up just as many points per game as they scored this season, that kind of football rarely gets you wins in January. What else has me going against the home team in this one? How about Arizona’s wins over the last 10 weeks of the regular season? Seattle twice, St. Louis twice, and San Francisco - just barely. Something about that doesn’t excite me. I know Seattle was playing better down the stretch, but the best team in that group is San Francisco, and the Niners weren’t really jelling 8 weeks ago. Atlanta has been tested, and they’ve passed. The Cardinals have to prove to me that they can beat a good team before I go putting money on them to win, even as a home dog.

Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers (+2): The Chargers have always been a tough match-up for the Colts, and San Diego plays well in the playoffs. I know that the Colts have a pretty tough pass defense, but with Rivers out to prove a little something, I have a feeling he has a nice day for the Chargers despite the Colts success at stopping the pass this season. I’m not sure if LT will be 100%, but then again, has he been at the top of his game yet this season? This is a tough one - there probable isn’t anyone in the league playing better than the Colts have over the past 8-9 weeks - but the Chargers have done a little turn around of their own. The Chargers always seem to play their best football against the best teams, and that has me thinking that they are built for the playoffs. They needed one hell of a run to get in, but now they are in, and that can’t be exciting for the rest of the AFC. The Chargers may have won just 8 games, and they had to take all of their final four to get to 8 - but they’ve played plenty of close games, and very well could be 11-5, or 12-4 just like the Colts. The talent is there. The last part of this that really pushes me towards San Diego - it’s hard to beat a good team twice, and it’s even harder to go on the road and beat a good team twice. If the Colts want to make it to the 2nd Round, they have to beat the Chargers in San Diego for the 2nd time this season. I’m betting that doesn’t happen.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Miami Dolphins: Can Baltimore really come in and beat the Dolphins for the second time this season? In Miami? I think so, but only because the Ravens are such a terrible match-up for the run-happy Dolphins. I know Miami has been throwing more, and successfully with Chad, but the Ravens defense doesn’t give up anything for free - and I think it stays that way. In the last 10 games, the Ravens have only lost to the Steelers and Giants. 8 wins, 2 losses, and the 2 losses were to a couple of the best teams in the league. Miami is solid, but the toughest win they’ve had in the last 10 weeks was last week against a flailing Jets club that had lost any identity they had. Both teams are solid - the Ravens are tougher - they may be a tough call as a road favorite here, but their toughness should overcome, and Joe Flacco is playing as good as he’s played all year.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings (+3.5): This one is really more of a toss up to me, but I still like the Vikings side more. I know the Eagles have played pretty well in 4 of their last 5 games, but I think they’ve been inconsistent enough to be a tough bet as a 3 point favorite on the road against a physical running team. The Eagles have no run-game anyway and the Vikings have been better against the past since their tough start to the season. The Eagles play much better at home than on the road, and so do the Vikings for that matter- but this game is in Minnesota. Everyone is loving Philadelphia here, but I’m not sure I can buy it. Look at the teams Philly has lost to lately, Washington, Baltimore, Cincinnati (tie), and the Giants (Those are the Eagles last 4 losses) - all of these teams have something in common; no matter what they are going to run the ball. Not all of them were super successful running against the Eagles, but all of them ran the ball a lot. Philly has a tendency to break down a bit in games that are physical like that. After coming off that huge party-win against the Cowboys to get in, it will be interesting to see how they come out. Either way, I think +3.5 at home for the Vikes is a solid bet.

NCAA Football Free Picks: Bowl Season 2

Okay, here goes my last part of the Bowl Series games. I’m not going to say much about all these games, but I’ll give you a couple little tidbits, and I pick every single college game right here! Good luck bowlers!

12-26

Florida Atlantic @ Central Michigan (-7): Central Michigan is a little overrated, but Dan Lefevour is a stud, and Central has been a great home team all season long while FAU is just 2-5 on the road. This game is tough for me though, because FAU’s rushing attack is so good of late. Still, this game is in Michigan, basically a home game for the Chipps.

12-27

West Virginia @ North Carolina (+2): The Tar Heels and Mountaineers are very equal, but Carolina is basically playing at home, they get the benefit of the doubt in a home game.

Wisconsin Badgers @ Florida State Seminoles (-5): I think the best team in the ACC is playing in this game. They played great down the stretch, using their speed to their advantage. They have power too. I think they end up being too athletic for the Badgers. Wisconsin lost to Michigan for God’s sake.

Miami @ California (-8): More players keep getting suspended from this game. And they’re all Hurricanes. Weird. Miami has now lost 5 players for this game, including their starting quarterback. I like Cal to pull this one out because of that. The game is in San Francisco.

12-28

Northern Illinois @ Louisiana Tech (+1): This game’s easy, LaTech, in Louisiana, against a team they are better than. Sign me up for that party!

12-29

North Carolina State (+7) @ Rutgers: Both of these teams have really won a lot down the stretch, both come in with winning streaks, NC State with a 4 game deal, and Rutgers riding a 6 game streak. Both also started off terribly. What else? They were smoking their opponents. NC State beat Miami by 10 after upsetting the Tar Heels by 31. Rutgers blew out South Florida, Army, and Louisville to end the season - allowing just 33 points total while scoring 142. Why am I taking the Wolfpack? Russell Wilson is a freshman, and he’s dynamite. He also has covered every single game he’s ever started and thrown 16 touchdowns compared to 1 interception. I love his style.

Northwestern @ Missouri (-12): The Wildcats have played two good teams this year, they were iced by both. Missouri is good. The Tigers are also ranked three spots lower than the Wildcats, and they are favored, that’s a recipe for success.

12-30

Maryland @ Nevada (+2.5): I think Nevada is the better team, this is more of a home game for them, they’ve played on the blue field, the Terps traveled across America to play in Boise - I think the Wolfpack win this one by a touchdown or two.

Western Michigan (+3) @ Rice: This game is a home game for the Owls, but I still like Western Michigan. It’s a close one, I wouldn’t bet the house, but I’m putting my name on Western Michigan in hopes that Rice’s sieved of a defense will be the end of them in this game. Even in a shoot out, you need to find a way to stop your opponent.

Oregon @ Oklahoma State (-3): This game is being played in Pac 10 country, but OK State has played in tougher places. The Pac 10 isn’t worthy. Most of the public agree with me, which I don’t like too much, but how can you go against the Cowboys here?

12-31

Air Force (+4) @ Houston: The Houston Cougars lose when they get out-rushed, they almost certainly will be in this one. So I like my chances here.

Pittsburgh @ Oregon State (-2.5): I’m starting to get weary of 2.5 games, but that’s probably silly. The Beavers are ranked lower and favored, you know I like that. This game is in Texas, so no travel favorites here. I just hink the Beavers are really good when Jacquizz Rodgers is healthy, and I think he will be. I’m taking the Beavers.

Boston College (-3) @ Vanderbilt: It’s all about defense and what the Eagles do well, stop the run. Vandy can’t pass the ball to victory, and I think the Eagles take this one because of that. Boston College has won 8 straight bowl games, coincidence?

Minnesota @ Kansas (-8.5): Losses to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa to end the season just don’t get me excited. Kansas will win here, I like them to do so by double digits. However, I warn you, Minnesota always seems to manage magic during the bowl season, not in wins, but at least in close games. I’m leaning Kansas here, but I’ve been more confident.

LSU @ Georgia Tech (-4): I think Tech runs the ball too well, and despite their talent, LSU hasn’t shown me the will to stop a rushing attack that continues to battle all game long. This game, in Atlanta, isn’t much different than a home game for the Yellow Jackets.

1-1

South Carolina @ Iowa (-3.5): The Hawkeyes run the ball too well, and that is trouble for a South Carolina team that prides themselves on stopping the run. That won’t happen against Shon Greene, he’s the most consistent runner in the nation. Every school he went up against new he was the guy getting the ball, new he was the one Hawkeye you needed to stop. Only nobody stopped him as he rushed for over 100 yards in every single game he played in this season. The Gamecocks are a good run defense, but the Hawkeyes will give them enough trouble here, and I don’t see much heart from Spurrier’s squad.

Clemson (-2.5) @ Nebraska: Nebraska beats the bad teams and loses to the the good teams. What about the middle? We shall see. Both of these teams have won three straight. Clemson is very talented. I think they take down the Cornhuskers in Florida.

Michigan State @ Georgia (-7.5): Georgia is talented enough to just out-muscle the Spartans. Kind of like Ohio and Penn State. Both of those teams crushed Sparty. That continues in Florida.

Penn State @ USC (-9.5): I think Penn State is underrated and the Trojans are a little overrated. However, this is a home game for the Trojans. This will also be the best team USC has played all season long. That being said, Pete Carol knows how to win bowl games, and there’s something to be said for a home team with a great post season coach.

Virginia Tech @ Cincinnati (-2): The Bearcats lost to the Huskies of Connecticut and the Sooners. That’s it. They win a lot of close games, this will likely be another. They haven’t beaten a great team, and the Sooners come in spanking the BC Eagles in the ACC Championship. I like the Cats though, their defense has great speed that I think will frustrate Tyrod Taylor and the Hokies.

1-2

Mississippi (+5) @ Texas Tech: Don’t ask me why, I can’t even figure it out, but I like Mississippi here. It might be one of those cases where Tech feels robbed and plays accordingly I guess. No Heisman invite for Harrell (what a joke), a bowl game against Mississippi after losing just once (to arguably the best team in the Nation) - I feel like this is what Kansas State had to deal with a long time ago, and it never really worked for them either. I wouldn’t bet too much on this game, though.

East Carolina (-2.5) @ Kentucky: Kentucky gives up more yards than they gain in almost every game they play, but they often find ways to make it close. ECU struggles with that too, but they won 9 games this season. These two teams are hard to explain. But ECU creates lots of turnovers, and that helps them put points on the board. In a game with two low-scoring offenses, easy points should get the job done. ECU is more likely to get those turnovers.

Utah @ Alabama (-9.5): The Crimson Tide had a great season, and took a tough loss against Florida. I would love for Utah to pull a Boise State, but I think the Crimson Tide are just too burly to be undone here. Utah has some great stories, and they could be one, but Alabama might very well be the Nation’s best team, and if they play with something to prove, they’ll win easily.

1-3

Buffalo (+4.5) @ Connecticut: These teams are very equal. This game is in freaking Canada. Anything can happen in Hockey country. I’ll take the 4.5 points here.

1-5

Ohio State @ Texas (-8): Yeah, I don’t like the Buckeye’s chances. Texas is a great team and this bowl isn’t a slap in their face. I expect an outcome similar to USC/OSU.

1-6

Ball State @ Tulsa (+3): Ball State was one huge upset loss away from an undefeated season, and they couldn’t do it as they were ousted by Buffalo of all teams. Then their coach bolted, and things just don’t seem right. Plus, Tulsa is really good despite a couple tough losses. I like the Golden Hurricane here.

1-8

Oklahoma (+3.5) @ Florida: I’m going this way for a couple reasons. 1 - Alabama should have pulled off the win against Florida, and I often see that kind of “last game” getting karma’d out. If that even makes sense. Also, I think Oklahoma is the best team in college football, and since I said that before the season started, if they win here I look even smarter than I already am - don’t take my bragging too seriously, in real life I’m more humble - ha. I understand taking Florida in what looks like a home game in Miami, but the SEC doesn’t impress me as much as it does everyone else, and I think Oklahoma’s big game experience against other Big 12 schools will pay off in this game. Plus, Bob Stoops and his OK boys can’t lose the big one forever, can they?

NCAA Football Free Picks: Bowl Season 1

Alright folks, I was going to try and break the bowl season into three different sections, and I was going to do a beautiful job doing it too. Then I decided to just go ahead and whip one hugemagnormous article with every single one of the 34 bowl games. Yikes. 34 bowl games? Yes sir, that’s a lot of football leading up to the National Championship - and that, well - that was going to be even better. But now, instead of that, I’m going to do 2 parts. The games before Christmas and the games after Christmas. It’s festive - go with it. I have to say it now though, I hate bowls and think an 8-16 team playoff with some non-championship bowl games is the way to make this thing work. 20 bowls and then a 16 team playoff with an actual champion at the end. That would make 35 games. On one, on one… Ready… break! Alright that’s all you get from me, now on to these blasted bowl games after every single team has basically had a month off to prepare for one single game. And to the winners go the spoils!!!

12-20-08

Navy Midshipmen (+3) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons: The Deacons are definitely the favorite here. With fans and in the name game as well. But I think the Midshipmen would be in an even better bowl game had their senior quarterback, Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, stayed healthy this season. Unfortunately for the Deacons, the leader of the Midshipmen is back in action, and since he left Navy has built a powerful defense to help supplement their powerful rushing attack. I know it’s tough to beat a team twice in a season, and that’s what Navy will have to do against Wake Forest, but I think it happens. Kaipo-Noa and his Navy teammates have lost two straight bowl games, and both were as close as they get. This is a team with strong will and great discipline - I don’t see them losing three straight bowl games.

Fresno State Bulldogs @ Colorado State Rams (+3): I have to go with Colorado State because there’s more excitement here. Talent? The Bulldogs do a peel-out runaway with that one, but that’s not what football and bowl games are all about. Neither team has been all that impressive, but it was the Bulldogs that were supposed to be great. They didn’t really beat anybody special, and always seemed to be in tight games against lesser opponents. The Rams will smack you in the mouth and they will be excited to be back in a bowl after missing the post season in each of the past two seasons. The Rams will get a shot at their first bowl win since 2001. But the Bulldogs are 4-1 in their last 5 bowl games under head coach Pat Hill, and while that might be something to worry about, I haven’t seen much trust or team play from the Bulldogs this season - so I’ll go against them here.

Memphis Tigers @ South Florida Bulls (-12): I actually kind of like that South Florida has lost 5 of their last 7 games after starting the season 5-0 and ranked 10th in the Nation. They’ve had an extremely disappointing season, especially with all the talent they got back. Memphis hasn’t lost many games by double digits this season, just twice, Mississippi to start the season and East Carolina in mid-October. Still, I like the Bulls to figure it out between losing a bunch of games and reflecting on their season. They have the talent to win this game by 4 touchdowns. I expect bigger things out of this South Florida team next season, and I have a feeling that they play like they were supposed to and handle Memphis in a game that will take place just 30 miles away from home for them. Home teams do well in bowl games, and this is about as close to home as the Bulls can get.

BYU Cougars @ Arizona Wildcats (-3): Both these offenses are pretty solid, but Arizona’s defense is better. Not consistent, but better. I think Arizona has as much potential as any other team in the Pac-10. They have tons of talent and athletes that can torment the Cougars. Also, this is the first bowl game these Wildcat players have been to in their careers. BYU has been to the Las Vegas Bowl 3 straight years, this is their 4th. There has to be something there. I like Arizona’s team more. BYU hasn’t beaten anybody that I would consider good. I know Arizona plays in the Pac 10, which isn’t good by any means, but this team is talented, much better than their 7-5 record insists. And BYU, they aren’t as good as 10-2 sounds. With more excitement and a little more to prove, I think Arizona takes this game and covers in Vegas.

10-21-08

Troy Trojans (-4) @ Southern Mississippi: Troy is a very good football team. They’ve taken one game on the chin pretty tough, a game against Oklahoma State a year after Troy upset the Cowboys. OK State doubled the Trojans up. Besides that, the Trojans have played pretty well in 3 other losses. They allowed a ton of points in the final quarter in a game they were way up on LSU and lost by 9. They lost by 18 to Ohio State, but that game was closer than the final score says. And they also lost by 1 to Louisiana-Monroe. The Trojans are very well coached, have a very tough-nosed run defense, and don’t make many mistakes on offense. Southern Miss’s Larry Fedora is a solid coach, but in his first year at the helm for Southern Miss, he might just have a tough time preparing for a month for one game. I like the Trojans better and they’ve done this before. They’ll be ready.

10-23-08

Boise State Broncos @ TCU Horned Frogs (-2.5): A lot goes into an undefeated season, and the Boise State Broncos have definitely done well this year. However, I think TCU is easily the toughest team Boise will have played this season, and that’s why this should be a great game. TCU is a scary defensive team and Boise State has a very tricky and well thought out offense. They’ve been good in Bowl games, no doubt about that, but I really think they’ve met their match with the TCU Horned Frogs. TCU’s defense is just too good. The Broncos will find running basically impossible, making them one dimensional against a defense that can really make some plays. TCU has two losses, to undefeated Utah on a game winning touchdown with 47 seconds left in the game and against Oklahoma. Give me the Horned Frogs in California.

10-24-08

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (pk): The Irish haven’t beaten a team with a winning record all season long. They are, and have been, one of the biggest disappointments in college football. Now they get to go to Hawaii, which is cool, but it also means they are playing the Rainbow Warriors. Not only do I think Hawaii is better than Notre Dame, but they get to play at home. They are used to the environment that will definitely be tough on the Fighting Irish. Well, not tough, but tough on their football play. I expect the Warriors to do even more damage to the Notre Dame name.

NCAA Free Picks: Week 15

These are the games I like for Week 15 - talk about a huge week with a lot on the line for some big time programs - especially for the schools that are at home watching and rooting like all hell. Yes, Texas, I’m talking about you. Great games with a lot on the line this weekend, lets see if I can’t have a big winner in the old NCAA one-five (that’s Chad Johnson for Week 15). Eight big games for you college football fans!

Pittsburgh Panthers @ Connecticut Huskies (-2.5): Now Pittsburgh has beaten some teams that Connecticut has lost too, and Pitt has played pretty well down the stretch - but the one key here is that these two teams are pretty equal, and Connecticut has the better offensive line, plays much better at home, and something else too. Yeah, Pitt falls under my bet against list because they won last week when they should have lost. The played poor enough to lose, definitely, but 12 4th quarter points got them w pretty lucky win. That doesn’t bode well for the Panthers this time around.

East Carolina Pirates (+13) @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane: I honestly kind of like East Carolina to win this one outright, so that makes the spread that much nicer I guess. Here’s the deal, Tulsa hasn’t won a game where they’ve scored less than 38 points. East Carolina has given up more than 38 points just once this season. THey won’t do that again. They are a good defense and Tulsa has proven that they don’t do well against good defenses. Undefeated at home? Yeah, I know - I’ve looked at all those stats - but they struggle when they don’t score points at will. They won’t on Saturday.

Boston College Eagles @ Virginia Tech Hokies (pk): The Hokies play really tough at home, and while BC plays good football on the road as well, I think the Hokies split this season series and get the Eagles back here. VaTech’s defense will cause lots of problems for Dominic Davis, just like with Chris Crane last time out, and Tyrod Taylor won’t be asked to do too much for the Hokies. Davis played well last week, but VaTech’s defensive schemes are a different beast than Maryland’s. Hokies win at home.

Washington Huskies @ California Golden Bears (-35): This is a huge spread. It should be. I need to do this now because I might not have too many more chance. See, if Mike Leach gets hired on in Seattle, I’m turning the page on this “always bet against the Huskies” thing, and as sad as that will be, I’ll just have to do it. The Bears ousted WSU 66-3 and while I don’t quite expect that big of a lashing, I wouldn’t be surprised about 45-6.

Alabama Crimson Tide (+10) @ Florida Gators: For a #1 ranked team, the Tide sure get very little respect. They are the only “big school” with an undefeated record. If one thing has been consistent it’s that they know how to win. I hate betting against the Gators, and thus I’m only going to do it for a small amount of coin, but Alabama can really run the ball. I now Florida is super fast, but Bama is powerful. They might not win pretty, but they win. Florida has annihilated everyone all year long, sans one single blemish. That may continue, but I’ll never feel bad about taking a 10 point dog that plowed through the regular season without a single loss. Besides each other, I think the SEC is a little overrated, so the work each school did (all those points put up by Florida and those games Bama had giving up a touchdown or less), I’m not so sure about. But both teams can win, and both can really play the game. Hard to go against a Florida team that, last week, has their closest game of the year since their loss to Mississippi, and they still won by 30. But I will. I’m wild.

USC Trojans (-32.5) @ UCLA Bruins: Maybe the recent brotherhood moment of “timeout for timeout” between Carroll and Neuheisel is a sign that Pete will take it easy on the first year coach of UCLA. I’m guessing not. The Bruins haven’t scored double digit offensive touchdowns total this season. That’s right, they average less than an offensive TD per game. What makes anyone think they’ll put up a single one against the Trojans? Pure craziness I’m sure. USC has plans on a big win, and even taking it easy would probably get them a 42-6 win. That’s enough for me. No TDs for the Bruins, that’s my bet.

Arizona State Sun Devils @ Arizona Wildcats (-10.5): The Sun Devils are just as bad as the rest of the Pac 10 while Arizona is really just a step under USC. That’s right, I think the Wildcats are just as good as the Ducks and Beavers despite losing to both teams late in the year. The Wildcats can put up lots of points if they need to and they can play defense too. ASU has been bad all year, I expect that to continue.

Missouri Tigers (+17) @ Oklahoma Sooners: I think that Chase Daniel and his Missouri Tigers saw how Oklahoma piled it on at the end of the Oklahoma State game and said, “F that Stuff - we won’t let them be in the position to do that to us.” We’ll see how it works out, but with Oklahoma already writing themselves in to the National Championship, I’m willing to bet that Missouri gives them a bigger scare than the books are suggesting with this big spread. I like Oklahoma to pull this one out, but around a touchdown is what I expect to see in this one.

Free NCAA Picks REVIEW: Week 14

Free NCAA Football Picks: Week 14

A little late this week, and I hope you can get on some of these games. My Week 13 follow up to my awesome Week 12 was not what I hoped it would be. In fact, it was down right piss. On to some better leads this time around. I hope your Turkey Day got you good like it got me. 

Washington State Cougars @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-28): I know I said last week that the Warriors hadn’t beat anybody by more than 20 points, and thus they were a bad play, but I think they are the type of team that will slowly pound the Cougars into a 30 point hole. I like Hawaii to cover at home in this one. I know Hawaii is a great place to go when you call Pullman, Washington home this time of year - but I have a feeling this trip will be more about celebrating a win over the Husky’s than a well played game against Hawaii. 

Notre Dame “Fighting” Irish @ USC Trojans (-30): I don’t think the Trojans are as great as everyone else thinks they are, but they kill bad teams - lets be honest. They have 11 athletes on both sides of the ball that can take poor steps, get fooled, and still get back to make the play after a small gain. I wouldn’t be surprised if USC shuts out the Dame - in fact, I will be surprised if the Irish get anywhere close to an end zone offensively. 

Oregon Ducks @ Oregon State Beavers (-3): I like the Beave in this one. It may or may not be because my cousin was a professional Beaver for quite some time, and it may or may not be because he owns a fan bus that does work at every Beaver home game - but look at what we have here. A Beaver team that has crap stomped everyone at home, and the home team has won this battle in 9 of the last 10 seasons - and it was OSU that took the Ducks on the road last year. I know the injury issues, and I know the Beavers have more riding on this game than Oregon does, but I still like the Beave here. Plus their mascot is a freaking Beaver for God’s sake - that’s worth a look if nothing else. 

Oklahoma Sooners @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (+7.5): Really? More than a touchdown in this rivalry game? Both teams are very good, don’t be confused. I think people must be seeing Oklahoma’s beatdown of Texas Tech and immediately making the comparison and contrast and saying, “If Tech beat Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma destroyed Tech, then this game should be over before it starts.” That’s not how it works. Oklahoma is very good, but OK State is a lot different than the Raiders - and this game should be closer, especially on the road, and especially against a Cowboys team that has everything to win and nothing to lose. 

Auburn Tigers (+14.5) @ Alabama Crimson Tide: Too much going on in the helmet’s in Alabama to truly destroy the Tigers in this one. Alabama isn’t a destroyer type team - and I like this one to play closer. 

Houston Cougars @ Rice Owls (+3): I like the Owls to win outright, obviously. Both of these teams are home town hero type clubs, undefeated on their respective home fields, and both are offensive juggernauts. I like the home team to pull this one out. I’d say they are equal talent clubs with the home field advantage meaning a lot more than you’d think. 

Florida State @ Florida Gators (-16): I know it’d be cool to take the road team Seminoles here, and they have played much better lately, but I’m done betting against the Gators, even in this supposed “let down” game zone. The Gators haven’t had a game closer than 4 touchdowns since their loss to Mississippi. And they’ve beaten some big time programs. This team is FAST. 

Kansas Jayhawks (+16) @ Missouri Tigers: I like the Jayhawks to score enough against Missouri to cover this spread. Both of these offenses can put lots of points on the board, and while Missou’s offense is the better of the two, I’m not sure the Tigers are much better defensively. I like my chances of staying within a couple touchdowns. 

South Carolina Gamecocks (+1) @ Clemson Tigers: I know there hasn’t been much consistency from the Gamecocks, except this, they win most all of the games they are supposed to, and they beat the teams they are even with. Except maybe Vandy (and Vandy was pretty dang good before their whole team started to go down with injuries in mid-October) the Gamecocks have beaten everybody they are equal to or better than. That’s Clemson to a T. Clemson isn’t Florida or LSU or Georgia. Clemson is Arkansas and Tennessee and Mississippi. Clemson is the type of team South Carolina beats by two touchdowns. Even on the road, I like them here.

NCAA Free Picks REVIEW: Week 13

 

Well, 5-12 isn’t as good as 14-5, that’s for sure, but that still leaves me 2 games over .500 in the last two weeks. College football can sure have some tough bounces, no question about that. There’s only a couple more weeks left for a chance at redemption from this terrible time I had in Week 13 - we’ll see if I can’t bust it up next time around. Here’s a list of the game I played with wins or losses listed on the side. 

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Louisville Cardinals (+7): (Loss) 

Army (+19) @ Rugters: (Loss) 

North Carolina State @ North Carolina (-10.5): (Loss)

Clemson @ Virginia (+3): (Loss)

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (-3): (Loss)

Florida Atlantic @ Arkansas State (-4): (WINNER)

Stanford @ California (-9): (WINNER)

Boston College @ Wake Forest (-2): (Loss)

Louisiana Tech (-6) @ New Mexico State: (Loss)

Idaho (+23.5) @ Hawaii: (Loss)

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Northwestern Wildcats (+2.5): (Winner)

Florida State Seminoles @ Maryland Terrapins (-1): (Loss)

BYU Cougars @ Utah Utes (-6.5): (Winner)

Washington (-7.5) @ Washington State: (Loss)

Texas Tech Red Raiders (+6) @ Oklahoma Sooners: (Loss)

Iowa Hawkeyes (-6) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers: (Winner)

Mississippi @ LSU (-5): (Loss)

NCAA DirecTV ESPN GamePlan: Week 13

Here are my picks from DirecTV’s college football schedule on Saturday, November 22, 2008. 

West Virginia Mountaineers @ Louisville Cardinals (+7): The Cardinals have lost 3 straight games, including a disturbing loss to the Syracuse Orange. But the played well most recently against Cincinnati, and this game is at home where they have played solid football historically. But really, why I’m taking the Cardinals, is because this is the Big East and I don’t think the Cards have a chance. That’s right. Since this is the Big East, you always go exactly opposite of what you expect to happen. Nothing would surprise me in this game. 

Army (+19) @ Rugters: Army has played better of late and though Rutgers has reeled off 4 straight wins against respectable competition (except Syracuse), I expect this game to be close. Army has played solid defense down the stretch, and come close to some solid teams, losing by just 3 at Buffalo and losing by 9 to Air Force. I’ll take the Knights. 

North Carolina State @ North Carolina (-10.5): The Tar Heels are very good at home, and the Wolfpack isn’t good on the road. I know this is an instate game, but I don’t see it being close. I’ll take the Heels. 

Clemson @ Virginia (+3): Clemson is still getting their preseason Top 10 lines and Virginia isn’t getting any respect for their turnaround. I know they’ve lost each of their last two games, but I have a feeling the Cavs come back and beat a Clemson team that has disappointed all season long. 

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (-3): It’s true, the Commodores usually lose at home to good conference teams, but Tennessee isn’t that anymore. With the Vols having gained Bowl eligibility last week, I think they’ll play with a renewed sense of confidence. They got over the hump and don’t have that one thing to worry about anymore. Vandy should stomp the Vols. 

Florida Atlantic @ Arkansas State (-4): Arkansas State runs an efficient offense without many mistakes. For that, I like them over Florida Atlantic. The Indians have lost three straight while FAU has won 4 straight, but this is the game that turns the streak around. 

Stanford @ California (-9): Cal usually isn’t good toward the end of the season, but I can’t imagine them playing poorly at home against the Cardinal. They’ve lost two straight, but @ USC and @ Oregon State aren’t really games they should have won anyway, and both were closer than the final score. I expect the Bears to continue their undefeated home play, while the Cardinal continue to struggle on the road. 

Boston College @ Wake Forest (-2): I have to follow my rule here, take any unranked team favored over a ranked opponent. This is borderline because BC is ranked 25th, but the Demon Deacons have played really well at home (aside from a loss to Navy) and should right the Boston College ship. Ha. That’s right, the Eagles have been playing above themselves the last few weeks - that won’t continue at Wake. 

Louisiana Tech (-6) @ New Mexico State: Louisiana Tech is just that much better than New Mexico State… The Aggies haven’t been good at home, and L-Tech hasn’t been terrible on the road. This is the only play here. 

Idaho (+23.5) @ Hawaii: I hate betting on Idaho, but they are the play that makes sense here. This isn’t June Jones’ Hawaii team here, these Rainbow Warriors haven’t won a single game by 20 points or more. That’s an auto play on the Vandals in this one - as bad as they are.

NCAA Football Free Picks: Week 13

After a huge week I’m back for one more shot at going deeper into the green - these are the games that have me going for gold in Week 13 of the college season. I’ve put together 8 games and there’s even a showdown amongst by two biggest money makers, the Washington schools (betting against of course). Here goes something…

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Northwestern Wildcats (+2.5): I wasn’t at all impressed with the Illini last week. They should have gotten beat by 20 - and they just don’t have much fight in them. Juice Williams got a hook late in that game, and I’m interested to see how that will effect that young quarterback. I’m not enamored with Northwestern, but a dog at home against this Illinois team seems like a bet too good to pass up.

Florida State Seminoles @ Maryland Terrapins (-1): I guess this pick is for the same exact reasoning as last week. FSU isn’t that great, Maryland is very equal to them at least, and the Terps are playing at home where they are probably the toughest out in the ACC - a 1 point favorite is basically a pick-em, so I have to like the Terps here.

BYU Cougars @ Utah Utes (-6.5): BYU hasn’t played well on the road this year, whether than was a 1 point win at Washington, a 3 point win at Colorado State, or a 14 point win at Airforce, even a 25 point loss at TCU for that matter - they just haven’t been at their best on the road. I know this game is huge for the Utes, and the Cougars really have nothing to lose, but Utah is just the better team. They’ve been better from the get go, and despite everyone’s expectations that BYU would be the undefeated team in this division at years’ end, the Utes are the team to beat. Brian Johnson may not have Max Hall’s numbers, but he does just as much for his team. The Utes have had their close wins, no doubt about that, but the better team should win by at least a touchdown on Saturday - and the better team is Utah.

Tennessee Vols @ Vanderbilt Commodores (-3): I think Vanderbilt’s big win last week, a win that assures them bowl eligibility, will be huge for their confidence going into this week’s tilt with Tennessee. They have that weight off their shoulders now, and I can only imagine they play better because of it. If that’s not enough, the Vols are absolutely brutal -that should do the trick.

Washington (-7.5) @ Washington State: What does a guy like me do in this situation? If you’ve read my picks more than once, you are well aware of my “Bet against Washington Sports” motto, and these two teams are the root of that motto. But there has to be value here, right? Sure, I think so - and I would feel so wrong, after all the money these two teams have made me, just letting this game fall to the wind. Alright, the Huskies should win this game. Believe it or not, they are the better squad. They are bad, just not as bad as the Cougars. The problem is, UW has to win by more than a touchdown to take this game. That’s a lot to ask from a team that hasn’t won yet this year. However, I’m taking the dogs. Winless doesn’t seem like a possibility, especially when it means losing to a terrible rival. I’m taking the Dogs in this one.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (+6) @ Oklahoma Sooners: It may not be the best bet because Oklahoma is dirty at home, and Tech is trying for the undefeated regular season here, and OK is really freaking good - but how can you not like Tech as a 6 point dog? Here it is folks, I would take Tech as a 6 point dog in the depths of hell against the Devils and all his demons. This isn’t a flukey gimmicky Tech team that relies solely on their crazy offense - they are good at everything. Realize that this one goes against my belief that you should always take a lower rated team favored against a higher rated team. Yep. This is the exception to the rule.

Iowa Hawkeyes (-6) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers: Too much of a run game from the Hawkeyes, and too much of a run defense as well. I see Iowa running away with this one.

Mississippi @ LSU (-5): This may be the last time in history that you’ll be able to get LSU at home anywhere close to good value. LSU has struggled this year, never was that more apparent than last week against Troy State - but they showed what they can do in a 4th quarter that got them a victory, and that 4th quarter is enough for me to take them here at home against Miss.

NCAA Football Free Picks REVIEW: Week 12

Nice week me… 14-5 is something to smile at - and Saturday had plenty of smiles. 

Rutgers (+8) @ South Florida: (win) I’m starting to figure the Big East out I think - whatever the consensus is, go the other way. I liked me some Rutgers in this one, and for good reason, they walked into South Florida and won outright. And talk about a beating, without any scoring in the 1st quarter, the Scarlet Knights put up 49 points on the Bulls. That’s big time. It was a sign of things to come, that’s for sure. 

Duke (+11.5) @ Clemson: (loss) Okay, I lost this one, and Duke was greatly outplayed - but their best player and team leader, quarterback Thaddeus Lewis, went down in the 2nd series of the game and Duke didn’t have a shot. In that case, neither did I. Clemson won 31-7, and I take one on the chin. 

Georgia (-8.5) @ Auburn: (loss) I should have listened to myself on this one. I knew it wasn’t a gimmie game, and I knew Georgia’s early season close wins were starting to look worse and worse, but I went with Georgia anyway, and while they did win, it wasn’t enough to get me in the W column. 

Middle Tennessee State (-2) @ Western Kentucky: (win) “But the better team is MTSU, they are good enough to be favored on the road as a 3 win team, and that tells me a lot about Western Kentucky.” Middle Tennessee ran the show in this game, never trailing for a minute and winning by 11 on the road. What can I say? It was a good week to be a me. You could almost say a Lucky day to be Lester? Whoa!!! A quick one. 

Toledo (+16) @ Western Michigan: (win) “Toledo has one good game against a decent team, and no I’m not talking about their win over Michigan - the Wolverines suck. I’m talking about a close loss at home against Central Michigan. Other than that, they’ve played terribly - especially on the road. Take away their win at Michgan and they’ve lost two straight on the road, to Norther Illinois and Akron, but 31 and 17 respectively. Western Michigan is better than that. But there’s this little thing called a let down game, and that’s what has me riding the Toledo Rockets in this one. Western Michigan sure can score the pigskin, but they allow a good amount of points as well. After upsetting Illinois (though it wasn’t much of an upset, but still a big win over a big name school) this game should be one in which they come out a little flat. I still like them to win, but Toledo at +16 will be my pick here.” I hit this game right in the nuts, you can’t argue with that. No doubt about it, Toledo is the lesser team, but Western Michigan didn’t play up to their ability. Sometimes that’s just the way the cookie crumbles. 

California @ Oregon State (-3): (win) The Beavers were better than Cal, and a late pick 6 cleared this one up perfectly. Cal couldn’t deal with constant pressure all day, and a Rodgers’ brother duo that did work from start to finish. The Beave is tough enough. 

North Carolina @ Maryland (+3): (win) “But this should be a bit of a let down week for the Heels, a win gets them a tie for first place in their division, but they are walking into Maryland. The Terps are undefeated at home and as good as NC is, they aren’t far and above better than Maryland. The Terps have crushed some dreams this season, and are trying to find the way to the top of their own half of the ACC. In College football, the home field advantage can be the answer to your betting questions - this is one of those times.” And what do you know, the Terps pull out the win at home. It was close. It was a battle. It was everything I thought it was, and at the foot of a 4th quarter field goal the Terps are still undefeated in Maryland. 

New Mexico State (+17) @ Fresno State: (win) “This seems like a good bet. Despite Fresno killing their bettors, the public still seems to love them, just waiting for them to finally win their second game against the spread. Interesting. What has Fresno done to be a 17 point favorite this season? Nothing is the answer. Take the Aggies.” There you have it. It took a late Fresno State 4th quarter touchdown to take the lead from New Mexico State, while me and that 17 point spread easily. 

Boise State @ Idaho (+36.5): (win) I said the value was with Idaho because the spread in this rivalry game had never been as big as it was this weekend. Boise State won by 35, and just by the hair on the spread’s butt crack, I won. Boise hammered Idaho in the 2nd half, but it was that early fight that got me the win. 

Oklahoma State @ Colorado (+18): (win) I said this spread was a touchdown bigger than it should be. I was right. The OK State Cowboys won by 13, but that was still enough for me to cover. Yhatzee! 

Troy State (+16.5) @ LSU: (win) This was a weird one. You can see why I wanted to leave it alone. The first 3 quarters were why I took Troy State, and the last quarter, the one where LSU did anything they wanted to do and fought back after being down by a seemingly insurmountable spread, and won - that’s why I didn’t want to bet on this game. That being said, I had the right side, as surprising as that was - it was Troy State’s side. 

Boston College @ Florida State (-6): (loss) The Seminoles fought back late, but BC was too tough defensively - mainly on their defensive front. FSU was hurried all day long and the Eagles won by a touchdown. 

Ohio State Buckeyes (-9.5) @ Illinois Fighting Illini: (win) I thought Juice’s touchdown pass with 50 seconds left in the game was going to get me, but then I remembered my line was 9.5 not 10.5 - close one. Ohio State won this game much bigger than the score showed. 

Nebraska Cornhuskers (-6.5) @ Kansas State Wildcats: (win) The Cornhuskers trounced the WIldcats, making me look like a smart little sports writing college picks advisor. Wahoo! 

Washington State Cougars (+36.5) @ Arizona State Wildcats: (win) As I said, it came down to wondering if the Wildcats could score enough points. A team that hasn’t scored 42 all season long shouldn’t be favored by 36.5 - Now 31? Sure… Haha… The Cougars tried to get me a loss, but they managed to hold the Wildcats out of the end zone one last time. 

Arizona Wildcats (+4) @ Oregon Ducks: (loss) The Ducks killed the Cats early, it was 44-17 at half time. But the Wildcats fought back and it took a late touchdown run by LeGarrette Blount that actually covered the spread for Ducks bettors. Arizona scored 28 straight points to pull within three and pull a sure loss into a cover win, but that late score did bettors justice and I lose. 

Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Houston Cougars (+4.5): (win) These teams weren’t quite as equal as I thought, either that or Houston just had the right bounces because the Cougars did work, basically doubling up Tulsa and scoring 70 points on the Hurricane. 

San Jose State Spartans (+15.5) @ Nevada Wolfpack: (loss) It was 31-17 going into the 4th quarter, but the Spartans were shutout in the final frame as they allowed 10 - that got me another loss on this college Saturday. 

UCLA Bruins (-7) @ Washington Huskies: (win) The Huskies play calling is brutal. They are not good personnel-wise. There was absolutely no reason this game should have had this close of a spread. Free money indeed.

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