USC Trojans @ Hawaii Warriors: Week 1 Pick & Preview

Those who have followed my work over the years know that I’m not real big on betting the Trojans to cover. I often do a good job of searching out value bets against top programs, and going against USC has been good for me over the years. But not this time. Even playing in Hawaii, in the first week of a new season, under a new coach, after all the sanctions and problems and graduations and former players headed toward NFL paychecks – this is still going to be a blowout.

Don’t get it twisted, the sanctions imposed on USC won’t destroy their talent base. Year in and year out, the Trojans stockpile talent as well as any team in college football. They may have lost Pete Carrol, sure, but it’s not like Lane Kiffin lacks the ability to recruit. This guy was pulling in 5-star skill players five-minutes into his hiring at Tennessee. He’s a salesman, no doubt about it. And while I wouldn’t want my kid to play for that snake, there are plenty of elite players headed to USC after Lane ran his pitch.

I know Hawaii should be a little better this season, but they were destroyed by any “good” team on their schedule last season. Fresno State (42-17), Boise State (54-9), and Wisconsin (51-10) all had their way with the Warriors, a team that hasn’t been the same since June Jones sailed off into the horizon. USC returns a very good young quarterback, a case of elite physical studs on both sides of the ball, and a coaching staff that knows what they’re doing. I hope the Warriors can slam the door on Lane’s first win at USC, but I don’t think this one will be even close. Take the Trojans by three touchdowns.

#14 USC Trojans (-21) @ Hawaii Warriors

Pittsburgh Panthers VS Utah Utes: Free College Football Picks

The Utes may have lost some of their key cogs from last years’ 10-3 team, but Utah is an elite football program (yeah, you heard me) and they should be favored to win at home (and they are). Now Pitt comes in with some big time players ready to make big time plays. Dion Lewis is one of the most dynamic offensive players in the nation, and so is physical specimen Jonathan Baldwin, the ultra talented receiving for the Panthers.

The questions for Pittsburgh come at quarterback, on the defensive side of the ball and up front on the offensive line.

The Utes don’t have many question marks. They return their leading rusher, leading passer, and most of a defense that finished 19th in the Nation in total yards allowed, and 23rd in total points given up. Last year was a “rebuilding year” for the Utes, and they showed how awesome their program has become by stomping through most of their season and finishing with a double digit win total once again. This year, those same youngsters are back, and they are ready to mess things up in the Pre-Season Top 25 right off the bat.

A strong offensive line, a very good defense, a young quarterback with a year under his belt, and plenty of weapons to use – that sounds like a good team to me. The Utes haven’t lost at home since Week 2 three seasons ago – as solid as Pitt is, there’s too many questions there for me to go against a very good home team.

#15 Pittsburgh Panthers @ Utah Utes (-2.5)

Marshall Thundering Herd @ Ohio State Buckeyes: Free Pick

The Thundering Herd return one of the top defensive fronts in their conference, and while that won’t necessarily give them a shot to topple #2 ranked OSU, it should keep them within covering distance of the favored Buckeyes. They stop the run pretty well, and return some big timer players in terms of rushing the passer, like senior linebacker, Mario Harvey.

Where they struggle is in the secondary, but that won’t likely hurt them too bad against the Buckeyes. OSU can throw it, but they are a run-first team, without a doubt. With a puttering offense last season, the Herd still managed to stay in the Top half in terms of points against, allowing a shade over 24 per game. The Buckeyes’ defense is legit, and they will shut down the Herd for most of the day – I don’t doubt that. I just don’t see Ohio State putting up enough points to cover the 4 touchdown spread over a pretty solid Marshall team.

Doc Holliday is the new coach up at Marshall, and his pedigree as an assistant speaks for itself. Given his first shot at his own team, I think he gets his guys to come out and play with a sense of confidence out of the gate. They have some homerun hitters in the backfield, and a couple scores could seal the spread just like that. Marshall’s defense is primed to put up a fight against Ohio State’s strengths – that’s a recipe for a cover.

Marshall Thundering Herd (+28.5) @ #2 Ohio State Buckeyes

Southern Miss Golden Eagles VS South Carolina Gamecocks Pick

I think this is a nice one early in the season. South Carolina hasn’t been in the business of blowing teams out in a long time, and I don’t know why they’d start down that path this Thursday. Southern Miss can put up points quick, and they are battle tested after numerous close contests in 2009.

The Golden Eagles finished the regular season 7-5 before losing 32-42 to Middle Tennessee State in their Bowl Game. In their 6 losses last season, only one was by more than 10 points, and not once did they lose by more than 13. This team has plenty of fight. Southern Miss is better than advertised, if they have been advertised at all. They have some stud athletes that put up points against every team they meet, finishing in the top 20 in points scored last season, nearly 33 per game.

The Gamecocks struggled to put points on the board last season, mostly relying on their powerful defense to win games in one of college’s toughest divisions – the SEC. The Gamecocks have gone through a tumultuous camp, losing some key players to injuries (like their leading tackler) and dealing with suspensions for a few other key players.

It’s not like a team to overlook their week 1 opponent, but South Carolina could get caught looking forward to Georgia on September 11th. Either way, the Golden Eagles play tough-nosed football, and the Gamecocks haven’t shown me that they are a team to thump a solid opponent. I like the dogs again, here!

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (+14) @ South Carolina Gamecocks

Texas Longhorns VS Alabama Crimson Tide: BCS National Championship Pick

As I said in my newsletter, Alabama is the best college football team in the Nation. Defensively they look superior to every other team, and offensively they often manhandle opposing defenses, control the clock, and have shown the ability to beat the snot out of opponents as well as win ugly. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they will win this game.

A month of no games can play tricks on a team, and that’s one of the reasons why this ridiculous bowl stuff makes everything a little more interesting. For an entire month, the Texas Longhorns have been hearing people talk about how they don’t have a chance against the best team in the SEC. They’ve heard about Heisman winner Mark Ingram and the powerful running game. They’ve heard about the defense with a handful of future NFL players. Yes, for one month, they’ve got to hear all the reasons they should lose. And it’s amazing how motivational that can be for a team that didn’t lose a single game all season long.

But despite that motivational push, it’s tough for me to go against Alabama here. Bowl games are special, and you never know, but the Tide look too tough in areas I think are most important. They are as tough as nails up front of offense and all over the field defensively. They allowed just 11 points per game, allowed 7 or less in 6 contests, and held normally powerful offenses like Arkansas, Florida, and Ole Miss to fewer than two touchdowns. The Crimson Tide are certainly battle tested. They easily ran throw what many people thought was the very best team in the Nation when they blistered Florida 32-13 in the SEC Championship game.

Texas struggled down the stretch, barely beating Texas A&M in a game where the Longhorns allowed 39 points (nearly twice as much as the Crimson Tide ever allowed in a single game this season) and needed a long last second field goal to beat Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship. Anything can happen in Bowl games, but if both these teams play to their potential, I think the Tide win easily. So I’ll take Alabama to cover the spread.

Texas Longhorns VS Alabama Crimson Tide (-3.5)

Central Michigan Chippewas VS Troy Tojans: GMAC Bowl Pick

The lesser known of the final two college football games of the season, but this one might very well be the more exciting game of the two. Both of these teams have shown the ability to fill it up on the scoreboard. And a great deal of that offensive success comes from their two quarterbacks.

Dan LeFevour, the more know of the two, has college football’s all time passing/rushing/receiving touchdown mark, totaling 147 scores in his 4 years starting at Central Michigan. The dual threat has been one of the best college football players in the game during his 4 seasons under center, and capped off his career with a 71.2% completion percentage, 27 passing touchdowns and 14 rushing scores this season while leading the Chippewas in rushing as well; another great year for the 11-2 Chipps.

But many say Troy’s Levi Brown has the bigger upside of the two, at least as far as the NFL is concerned. He passed for 3,868 yards this season (800+ more than LeFevour) with 22 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions. Brown has a very strong arm, and the Trojans averaged just .1 points per game less than the Chipps’ high powered offense. Both these teams can score the football.

As far as the gambling world is concerned, both these teams were book beaters, going 17-7 combined against the spread. The Trojans were 8-4 ATS while the Chippewas were 9-3. Troy averaged 33.1 points and 478.5 yards per game, 16th and 3rd in the Nation. Central Michigan finished 33rd with 416.9 yards per game, and one slot ahead of Troy in scoring with 33.2 points per contest.

Troy is just 1-3 all time in bowl games, beating Rice in the 2006 New Orleans Bowl. The Chipps are just 1-4 in post-season bowl play, also winning in 2006, against Middle Tennessee State in the Motor City Bowl. This is the first time these two teams have played.

And now for the reason why I’m taking Troy. I know I should have learned by now that betting against Superman Dan LeFevour isn’t the best bet around, but I like the Trojans in this one. They have really played good football over the last 8 games, losing only to Arkansas and beating up on just about every team in their path. Central Michigan will be their best win of the season, if they can pull the upset, and I think they will. LeFevour hasn’t performed his best in Bowl games, and it’s possible that might follow him into his final one. The Trojans boast a better passing attack than CMU has seen all season long, and I think that air attack will get the best of their secondary.

Central Michigan Chippewas VS Troy Trojans (+3)

FedEx Orange Bowl: Iowa Hawkeyes VS Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick

FedEx Orange Bowl: Iowa Hawkeyes VS Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick: The Hawkeyes had one hell of a run, and were quite possibly one starting quarterback injury away from a perfect season, which is something the Oklahoma Sooners might also say, but the Hawkeyes made it to 9 wins before running into that unfortunate event. For a team that wasn’t even thought of in the Pre-Season Top 25, the Hawkeyes beat up on a few of the best teams in the Big 10, winning by double digits in both Penn State and Wisconsin. They lost just two games, but it ended up being 2 of their last 3. They lost by 7 at home against Northwestern, a game in which Stanzi (their QB) got hurt. They lost their next game by 3, in overtime, @ Ohio State. And defensively, the Hawkeyes are easily one of the Top 10 units in the nation. They fly to the ball and keep everything in front of them. Very underrated.

But I don’t think you can completely stop the Yellow Jackets, as Georgia Tech has put up plenty of points against good defenses, and put up plenty of rushing yards against solid defensive fronts. If I believed the Hawkeyes could score with the Yellow Jackets, I think they’d be an easy pick here, but with Richard Stanzi playing a football game for the first time in two months, I just can’t see him being accurate enough to march the Jackets down the field.

He wasn’t a super-accurate passer to start with, as his 56% completion percentage and his 15-14 touchdown to interception ratio insists, but after two months off, most of that time getting healthy, it’s tough for me to see him torturing the Yellow Jackets’ secondary enough to keep this game close. Tech doesn’t play great defense, so anything is possible, but the Yellow Jackets are my pick to win and cover.

Iowa Hawkeyes VS Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-5)

Boise State Broncos vs TCU Horned Frogs: Fiesta Bowl Pick

As I wrote in my stream of conscious article right after the BCS games were announced, this is the best worst game of the bowl season. These are two of the best teams in college football, despite their conferences, and their “small college” “mid-major” status. TCU has one of the better defenses a college team has put together since Miami was paying kids to play back in the day, and Boise State just comes out and beats just about every damn team they play – aside from TCU, last season, when the Broncos lost 17-16.

This season, the two “big-time-small-schools” get to play each other, again, with absolutely no way to prove anything at all except that one of these teams is better than the other on Monday, the 4th of January, after a month between games. And it has no chance of proving to anyone that the Horned Frogs or Broncos should be in the hunt for a national championship, because they can’t pull a big upset over a top ranked BCS school. Oh no they can’t.

But these are two great teams, and while it will certainly be a solid match-up, I think the Horned Frogs will get the best of the Broncos once again. Boise State has a very solid offense and an underrated defense, but TCU’s better in both aspects. They might not throw it better, but they are more efficient and they will control the clock in this one. Eventually, they’ll pull away, and win this one by double digits.

Boise State Broncos VS Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-7)

College Bowl Games Picks, Predictions & Previews 02/01/2010

I didn’t ace Friday’s New Years’ games, going 2-3 with a couple losses in games I took the favorite (West Virginia and Oregon) but I look to fight back in Saturday’s lesser known bowl games. No highly ranked Top 10 match-ups here, oh no, the BCS takes a break from “blessing us” with their handy work, and we get to see unranked foes go at it, lower ranked teams try to beat up on unranked opponents, and probably some really good football. Don’t get it twisted, highly touted games rarely live up to the billing while these small bowl games often go big. Here’s some small write-ups for Saturday’s games.

Northern Illinois Huskies (+7) @ South Florida Bulls (International Bowl): The Huskies won 4 of their last 6 to become bowl eligible, at one point winning 4 in a row before losing their final two games to end the season (both against bowling teams, Central Michigan and Ohio). South Florida lost 5 of their last 7 after a 5 game winning streak to open the season. They didn’t lose to bad teams by any means, but that doesn’t mean they played like a dream either. Rutgers spanked them 31-0, but they did beat West Virginia. This is a tougher game than people are giving credit, and the 7 points are something I expect to come in handy.

Connecticut Huskies @ South Carolina Gamecocks (-4.5) (AT&T Cotton Bowl): I really like the Huskies, have been pulling hard for them all season long, and will be rooting for them to win again here – but that doesn’t keep me from using my brain and seeing a very small chance of that happening. The Gamecocks are too tough defensively, and with all that time leading up to this game, I think the Ol’ Ball Coach will have a nice plan of attack on tap.

Mississippi Rebels (-3) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys (PAPAJOHNS.com Bowl): I haven’t been a big fan of Mississippi, and watching them play at times this season has been painful – but they turned the season around a bit and have looked semi-successful toward the end of the season. They have some great players, and a RB that can dominate a game. I think they take care of the Cowboys.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ East Carolina Pirates (+8) (AutoZone Liberty Bowl): East Carolina had a great season, and while they can lay eggs, so can the Razorbacks. Arkansas can play great and play like pee, and something tells me a 4 week wait to play the East Carolina Pirates won’t have them rolling with excitement. East Carolina won 6 of their last 7 including 4 in a row to end the season. I think they keep on that hot streak and stick with the Razorbacks.

Michigan State Spartans @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7) (Valero Alamo Bowl): I know there’s been some crazy ish going down amongst these two teams, and a lot of players are probably really grateful a game is just around the corner so they can play football and quit talking about off-the-field problems. But I actually think Michigan State’s problems greatly out-weigh Texas Tech’s dilemma, especially for just one game. Mike Leach’s firing will certainly effect the Red Raider team, but probably next season more than this one day. His staff knows what he wants to do, and they’ll do it. As for the Spartans, loosing a gaggle of important pieces for a suspension because of a fight probably puts them in an impossible spot. The Raiders have almost every single one of their players for this game- that’s important.

Sugar Bowl Predictions: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Florida Gators

One of these teams was supposed to go undefeated. One of these teams had a quarterback that was supposed to find himself at the top of the Heisman list, and one of these two programs were heavy favorites to win a National Championship – but the other team actually went undefeated, and the other team should have had a quarterback on the Heisman list (and would have had he not been out for a handful of games), and the other team got robbed a chance at the National Championship despite being undefeated, because they don’t play in a conference with “big” money. There it is. So Cincinnati comes to the Sugar Bowl trying to prove themselves a legit title contender, and Florida, well, they come to show that their game against Alabama was a fluke, and to send one of the best college players of all time out on a win.

Both of these teams will be without the head coach that got them to where they are. Cincinnati’s head man Brian Kelly bolted for a chance to rebuild and their interim coach, Jeff Quinn headed out promptly, taking the Buffalo head job. Then you have Florida, and Urban Meyer’s health problems have him out of this game, and almost retiring from the position altogether, but that’s all up in the air, or changed, or – well, we’ll see how that goes in due time.

The bottom line is Florida is an elite team in the country. Their defense has heaps of NFL talent and their offense has one of the greatest leaders of college football history – not to mention speed that Cincinnati hasn’t seen. And I think Cincinnati’s luck has run it’s course – this is a team that had their fair share of close games, and should have lost their last one. Having something to prove is a little overrated, especially when you’re going up against one of the best teams in college football after they got kicked around and embarrassed in front of the sporting world. Something tells me they’ll be plenty motivated.

Cincinnati Bearcats @ Florida Gators (-10.5)

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