theRUNDOWN: Week 17
December 24, 2008 by Papa Weimer · Leave a Comment
What is theRUNDOWN? I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. I’ll list a few sleepers and some guys I wouldn’t play unless I had nobody else, we call these splinter butts because of their need to be benched - this is the last week of the year, and quite possibly the last Rundown ever - only because I figure there might be a better way to go about my weekly fantasy predictions -anyway, without further a due, this is theRUNDOWN for Week 17.
QB: Phillip Rivers vs. Denver: Because this is Philip Rivers’ team now, and they will need him to continue his huge season to get into the playoffs. Not only that, but this guy somehow got snubbed by not making the Pro-Bowl, and he’s out to show everyone the mistake they made.
RB: Kevin Smith vs. Green Bay: The Packers lost yet another game that they should have won when they took an OT shot to the face last week against the Bears. The Packers can’t stop the run, and I know Kevin is getting the ball 23-30 times this week. That’s more than I can say about most running backs - with playing time in question, I’ll take this solid young back that’s gotten better as the season matured.
RB: Michael Turner vs. St. Louis: The Falcons have to go into their game against the Rams with hopes of a first round bye. That means Turner pounding the Rams into submission, and that’s a good thing for Mike Turner owners. I think he’ll have a huge Week 17.
FLEX: Pierre Thomas vs. Carolina: It’s a tough match-up for Thomas, but in this PPR format and in a game that should be close, he’s going to get around 20 carries and 5-8 catches - that makes for a good game from this ultra-talented back.
WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Seattle: This guy is a beast for Seattle’s little corners to match-up with, and I think the Cardinals come out winging it around against the Hawks. Fitzy is one of the most consistent receivers in the league, and in a game where Arizona needs to find their mojo, I see Kurt looking under the Larry Fitz rock.
WR: Terrell Owens vs. Philadelphia: He hasn’t had a real big week in a while, but I think TO gets back to wrecking the Eagles with a huge game against his former team. TO is a gong-show, no doubt about that, but he’s a gong-show with amazing ability, the ability he loves to torment the Eagles with.
TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. Cincinnati: I’m not giving up on Tony - he’s legit, against Cincinnati he looks like the best play around.
K: Robbie Gould vs. Houston: Dome games and kickers are a nice combo, and the Bears offense is just bad enough to move a little bit and get in FG range before being halted.
D: Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland: I just see Ken Dorsey causing more problems for the Browns offense, and the Steelers turnover causing defense will be at it again, starters or not.
PAPA’S Week 17 SLEEPERS
Tyler Thigpen: I like this match-up, especially if you get more points for a quarterback rushing touchdown. Thigpen gets 40-50 yards a week, and it most leagues that’s just like a free touchdown. He’s a great start this week against the Bungles.
Jason Campbell: With the last game here, and the pressure off, maybe Zorn will take the reigns off as they say. Let the kid throw the ball down field!
Joe Flacco: I like the kid this week against the Jags, what’s not to like?
Larry Johnson: I’m thinking that LJ gets more carries this week than he has over the last few weeks, and I think he does some nice work against the Bengals.
Fred Jackson: I don’t think Lynch plays, and that makes Jackson a great start. Fred does a lot of things well, catching the ball too, and he should get lots of touches against the Patriot, and that’s a good thing against a run defense that isn’t great.
Jon Stewart: I think Stewart gets the Lion’s share of the carries this week as Williams gets a little bit of a rest. I think Stewart has a BIG game.
Chad Johnson: Chad hasn’t had a big game all year - that’s too rare for this game breaker, even if Ryan Fitz is his QB - I like him to have his highest yardage output of the season against the Chieftains.
Mewelde Moore: He’s been better than Fast Willie, so much so that I think Parker gets the axe headed into next season. Moore will get a lot of carries this week, and that’s good for him.
Mark Bradley: You bet! The former Bear is back in action, and I’m willing to bet that he has a big game in his second game back from injury. Thigpen loves him. Anytime Mark’s on the field, Tyler has seemed to have big games.
Greg Olsen: How about the Bears knowing what’s good for them and getting the ball to this playmaker? I see them doing that in the final week.
Atlanta Falcons: Bye week #2 seed on the line, St. Louis in their way, I see big plays and a big day from Atlanta.
Papa’S Week 17 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)
Peyton Manning: If he plays, he won’t play long, the Colts are one of the few teams in football that can’t better or worsen their position this week, and Tony Dungy is a guy that believes in resting his stars before the playoffs.
Marshawn Lynch: What do the Bills gain by playing Lynch? Nothing is the answer, except further risk of a lingering ailment.
Jamal Lewis: No thank you. What an impossible season schedule for Jamal.
theRUNDOWN: Week 16
December 18, 2008 by Papa Weimer · Leave a Comment
What is theRUNDOWN? I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. I’ll list a few sleepers and some guys I wouldn’t play unless I had nobody else, we call these splinter butts because of their need to be benched - This is theRUNDOWN for Week 16.
QB: Jay Cutler vs. Buffalo: If the Broncos win this game they go to the playoffs. If they lose this one, and the Chargers win, they play a loser out game in Week 17 against San Diego. Jay Cutler comes to play on Sunday, that’s my bet.
RB: Maurice Jones Drews vs. Indianapolis: There won’t be many that think Jacksonville has a chance, but I’ll be one. Why do they have a chance? Because this guy could touch the ball 30 times. If that happens, look out Indy.
RB: Matt Forte vs. Green Bay: I know he hurt his foot and had a terrible game last week, but this kid is very good, and he plays a Packers defense that isn’t. What else? This is must win time for the Bears.
FLEX: Thomas Jones vs. Seattle: If Eric Mangini knows what’s good for him, he’ll give the ball to TJ 25+ times. If he continues to be an idiot, this pick won’t look as good as the Adrian Peterson pick I almost made.
WR: Andre Johnson vs. Oakland: Because he’s the best around, that’s why.
WR: Randy Moss vs. Arizona: People forget that the Patriots are playing for their playoff lives too. Randy should be targeted in double digits against Arizona’s suspect secondary.
TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. Miami: Part of me wants to take John Carlson here, but Tony is just so good. I’ll stick with the old savvy veteran.
K: Josh Brown vs. San Francisco: I wanted to take Nedney, but I think St. Louis will have drives stopped short of the end-zone. San Francisco might just have 4-5 touchdowns.
D: Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee: I think the Steelers shut down the Titans, and make Kerry Collins throw. That means interceptions. That means sacks.
PAPA’S Week 15 SLEEPERS
Tyler Thigpen: Miami doesn’t scare me away from Thigpen, a couple super fantasy bowls will rest in his hands.
Dan Orlovsky: He has a big game and the Lions win - I like both to happen on Sunday.
Shaun Hill: I don’t know why the 49ers would pass, but they probably will, and Hill always seems to manage some points. All three of these guys are solid starts.
Pierre Thomas: You should own this guy. He’s about to be New Orleans’ horse in a Detroit game. He might be a Top 5 start this week. So he probably doesn’t belong here, but I’m doing it for the grades!
Kevin Smith: This guy is the #1 most important guy for Lion hopes. I think he comes through with a big game this week against New Orleans.
Leon Washington: I don’t think Seattle has the linebacking speed to stay with Leon, I don’t know if anyone does, but they definitely don’t. I think the Jets will game plan for that bit. If you need a deep flex, you might give him a shot.
Kevin Walter: If the best corner in the league stays with Andre Johnson all day, that means big things for Mr. Walter.
Devin Hester: I have a lot of the same guys as last week, but Hester looks real good, especially with the way Green Bay has been giving up a ton of passing yards recently. Hester looks good lately.
Tory Holt: The Niners are tougher against the run than you’d think - but they are not the best secondary, that’s for sure. I think Holt has a chance to have a nice week.
Jeremy Shockey: He’s been bad, hardly even startable, but I think he has a nice week in 16.
Miami Dolphins: If you need someone here, take a chance on the Dolphins, they could make some big plays against the Chiefs.
Papa’S Week 15 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)
Tony Romo: I wouldn’t play anyone from Dallas this week, and I think Tony has the best chance to score points. I’m guessing he has 200 yards 1 TD and 2 INTs. Not the worst ever, but you can find better.
LaDainian Tomlinson: I like Kevin Smith, Justin Fargas, McFadden, and Ronnie Brown (among others) better than LT this week. I have a feeling the Bucs have a run-stuffing week up their sleeves.
Maurice Morris: The Jets haven’t been as good against the run and Maurice Morris has been a solid play of late. Those two things will both play out differently this week in Seattle.
Santonio Holmes: I have a feeling that the Steelers will be running the ball more on Sunday. That won’t give Holmes many targets, and he looks like a 2 catches for 20 yards guy to me.
theRUNDOWN: Week 15
December 10, 2008 by luckylester · 1 Comment
For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. I’ll list a few sleepers and some guys I wouldn’t play unless I had nobody else - This is theRUNDOWN for Week 15.
QB: Kurt Warner vs. Minnesota: Part of me wants to take Drew Brees on Thursday Night, because he might just go off for 400+ yards and do the Bears in real good. However, I’m headed to Arizona instead, and I’m seeing if I can’t follow the Cardinals and Kurt Warner in what might very well be a 3 or 4 passing touchdown night.
RB: DeAngelo Williams vs. Denver: The Broncos have actually been solid against the run the last couple weeks, but something tells me that trend ends against the Panthers. DeAngelo probably won’t be that sore either, I think Tampa only tackled him a handful of times. Jon Stewart is probably a solid play as well.
RB: Matt Forte vs. New Orleans: I think Forte will have 100+ rushing and 50+ receiving, and maybe even a couple touchdowns against the Saints on short notice. Those are #1 type numbers so I’ll go with the rookie back for what I think is the 3rd straight week.
FLEX: Brian Westbrook vs. Cleveland: Part of me expects Brian Westbrook and the Eagles to play poor this week, well, because they are now supposed to play well. Tough team to figure out. That being said, bugger me if I don’t get on this train whilst it’s at a pace steady enough for me to jump on.
WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Minnesota: This one has the makings of a shootout, and I want this PPR superstar rocking the fantasy roster for my squad.
WR: Greg Jennings vs. Jacksonville: The Jaguars aren’t good - Greg is, the Packers should do lots of running and throwing in Jacksonville - here’s me hoping the majority of those throws go to Mr. Jennings.
TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. San Diego: I’m riding the old man out in this one. He’s one of the best around, as consistent as they get, and San Diego isn’t much for stopping the pass.
K: Olindo Mare vs. St. Louis: Tough to throw my kicker of the week in Seattle’s offense, but why not? This guy is playing in St. Louis and the Hawks are bound to attempt 3 or 4 field goals.
D: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cleveland: This blitz-happy system scaring Ken Dorsey like he’s in some horror movie with frightening little kids that make creepy faces - sign me up.
PAPA’S Week 15 SLEEPERS
Tyler Thigpen: Always going to be here? Yep.
Kyle Orton: Yes sir.
Seneca Wallace: I like the confidence Seneca is playing with right now, and honestly, I think he should be the guy starting in Seattle with Matt the way he is anyway. Obviously Hasselbeck doesn’t have his back quite right and Seattle doesn’t need to throw him out there for any reason.
Pierre Thomas: I want Thomas again this week - he runs very hard. Maybe this is why he was in front of Rashard Mendenhall at Illinois. Still, I think BOTH running backs are solid.
Kevin Smith: The Lions are going to run no matter what, Smith is a good young back and the Colts (while the do have Bob back) aren’t the best run defense in the league. In a push he’s a decent option.
Jonathan Stewart: He’s one of the better starts this week I think. He will continue to get just under half the looks in big scoring games, and he’s a beast. Why not give him a shot if your other back is hurting and playing a great defense? (That goes to you owners of Willie Parker, Jamal Lewis, Marion Barber, and Brandon Jacobs- I think he outscores 3 of the 4 at least)
Domenick Hixon: After struggling last week, I think the Giants get their passing attack going against a Dallas secondary that has been playing better than they are recently.
Devin Hester: I still like Hester - this list is looking a lot like last week’s group.
Bryant Johnson: The big receiver is playing a lowly ranked Miami secondary, and he’s been pretty solid over the last four weeks - he’s worth a flier.
John Carlson: I would say he’s not a sleeper, but look at the numbers, in most leagues he’s not owned. This guy should be starting just about every week.
New England Patriots: They play the Raiders, and the Raiders are probably starting Andrew Walter. When he throws a couple picks or and then fumbles away a touchdown, who will the Raiders turn to? I doubt the answer will fair much better.
Papa’S Week 15 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)
Marc Bulger: Again, Bulger plays one of the lowest rated pass defenses in the league, again I wouldn’t start Marc Bulger unless it was an empty free agent pool without Seneca Wallace, Tyler Thigpen, Chad Pennington, and Jeff Garcia.
Tim Hightower: He’s basically been what I thought he’d be since taking over for Edgerrin James - and I still don’t think you should start him, especially against this D-front.
Jamal Lewis: I’m thinking Jamal might get about 16-22 carries for 50-65 yards, and I don’t think he’ll score. He might get a couple receptions with Harrison being out, but I doubt those will amount to much.
Randy Moss: It was prior to last season that this section was named after Randy Moss - funny how the world turns. Still, I think the Raiders will take this game a little bit personally, and there’s one DB in Oakland that will likely be assigned to hold Randy down. I’m not sure it’s the best move to sit Randy in the playoffs, but I’m going to make that move in my playoff league (but I have Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe, and Larry Fitzgerald to start instead).
theRUNDOWN: Week 14
December 4, 2008 by Papa Weimer · Leave a Comment
For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. I’ll list a few sleepers and some guys I wouldn’t play unless I had nobody else - And Week 14 is upon us!
QB: Matt Cassel vs. Seattle: I know, there are probably better options, but Seattle’s secondary hasn’t been able to slow down much lately, and I don’t think the Patriots will waste all that much time running. The Hawks have a solid run defense, but I’m pretty sure they’ve been the worst pass defense in the league lately. I’ll ride the Castle man.
RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Detroit: I guess I’m probably not the only one starting AP this week, but how can you not? It probably won’t happen, but what if you added LenDale’s numbers to Chris Johnson’s numbers from Thanksgiving’s game between the Lions and Titans? That’s what I’m hoping AP gets.
RB: Matt Forte vs. Jacksonville: I started a rookie against Jacksonville last week, and I’ll do the same this week. Both are dynamic, and Forte is even more a center of his offense with even more carries near the goal line. Big game here.
FLEX: LT vs. Oakland: Here’s why, because he’s LT and he’s playing the Raiders - that’s why. Fantasy owners have been disappointed by LT this year, but if they made the playoffs with him, he should really help them with a big payoff in Week 1 of most fantasy post seasons.
WR: Roddy White vs. New Orleans: This kid is one of the better receivers you don’t hear a whole bunch about. He’s quietly putting together an amazingly productive and consistent fantasy season - that’s huge for receivers.
WR: Brandon Marshall vs. Kansas City: Brandon Marshall has disappointed me too many times to do it again this week, hasn’t he? I’m telling you - there aren’t many more talented than this kid, now if he’d just stop dropping passes.
TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. Denver: How good is this old man? I should be starting him just about every week.
K: Ryan Longwell vs. Detroit: Versus Detroit is the key to this one. They give up so many yards, and then commit so many stupid mistakes - Longwell is bound to get a few kicking shots. Indoors, he’ll hit them all.
D: Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland: Better yet, this is Tennessee versus Ken Dorsey. Awesome.
PAPA’S Week 14 SLEEPERS
Tyler Thigpen: Against Denver? You bet.
Daunte Culpepper: I actually think Daunte throws for more than 250 yards with 2 touchdowns or more. Is that crazy thinking? Am I old? Yes to all those things, but I’ll be right - that’s even scarier.
JaMarcus Russell: If you are in this big of a bind, you have done well to get into Week 14 with something to win. Still, JaMarcus might light up a San Deigo defense that will be putting as many as they can in the box, and they aren’t great in the secondary anyway. It’s a short notice game, so this could be a nice night for the former #1 pick. Plus, you have to feel for him getting drafted by Oakland and all.
Pierre Thomas: You bet. Atlanta’s defense is alright, but Pierre has been doing work. I’ll say it again, it’s popular on this site, Pierre is the best running back in New Orleans.
Cedric Benson: Don’t look now but Benson has run with heart, and I think he keeps the starting gig for a while. That being said, he does play for the Bengals, but hey, I’ll try anyone once against the Colts.
Domenick Hixon: I don’t care who they are playing, this guy is good for 70 yards, I hoped you trusted me and picked him up last week, because I’m sure he was tough to grab this time out.
Devin Hester: I liked Hester last week, and I like him even a little bit more this week. Jaguars secondary is defunct and they just lost the best player in it. Does that mean good? That means Yhatzee!
Zach Miller: He’s basically a sure thing start every week. This week he plays a poor defense on short notice - that’s more of a good for Zach. Some real sleepers I also like here are Shiancoe, Kevin Boss, and Ben Watson.
Arizona Cardinals: Yeah, I’m trying a mediocre D against the Rams, so what, I’m right about this one this time. AZ should play inspired after diking around last week.
Papa’S Week 14 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)
Marc Bulger: The match-up might say “YES!” but somebody needs to slap your match-up hunter right in the face on this one. If Bulger is still in by the end of the game, I will be stunned, and here it is, I will take a D grade for this sit pick even if he scores single digit points. I don’t see a long stay for Marc on the field this week.
DeAngelo Williams: How great has this guy been? Exactly. But not this week, not in this game. The Panthers will lose at home because they won’t run well.
MeWelde Moore/Willie Parker: The Steelers are smart, and therefore they won’t waste much time running the ball against the Cowboys D. Dallas has a nice run D, and while Pitt will have some good plays on the ground, it’s because they will be taking advantage of that Dallas secondary - more points through the air than on the ground this week.
Kevin Walter: Not against those Corners in Green Bay.
theRUNDOWN: Week 13
November 25, 2008 by Papa Weimer · 1 Comment
For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. I’ll list a few sleepers and some guys I wouldn’t play for hopes of a better options - This is my lucky Week 13 extravaganza! Enjoy!
QB: Tony Romo vs. Seattle: I think the Hawks secondary is pretty soft, and I’m willing to bet that Tony throws the ball a lot. The Defensive front in Seattle is solid against the run, (well they were before Clinton Portis gashed them) so Dallas will be attacking through the air. Even dump downs to Marion Barber should be good for Tony. I like this pick a lot.
RB: Chris Johnson vs. Detroit: I know this rookie burner has fizzled out a little bit lately, but after LenDale White’s comments after last Sunday’s game, I don’t expect Chris to get anything less than almost every single carry again. Chris should be back on top of the running back lists this week against Detroit.
RB: Steve Slaton vs. Jacksonville: Steve should dominate the Jaguars pathetic run defense - now get this guy the ball in the air attack you play calling Texan donkeys!
FLEX: Thomas Jones vs. Denver: If he gets the ball 25 times, I’m willing to suggest 150 yards and at least 2 touchdowns. The Broncos are bad. The Raiders think the Broncos suck.
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. Cleveland: Reggie hasn’t been too impressive this season, therefor I’ll be attaching my fantasy hopes to his back this week. He’s too good to not blow up - ala TO last week.
WR: Brandon Marshall vs. New York Jets: I know this seems like a tough match-up, especially when Marshall hasn’t been in the end zone in what seems like forever - but the Broncos are nothing if not surprising, and thus I’ll go with Brandon this week.
TE: Antonio Gates vs. Atlanta: Antonio is bound for a good week in a game where the Chargers will have to score lots of points if they want to win.
K: Rod Bironas vs. Detroit: If the Titans kick 4 field goals then they basically auto-win this game. I think Rod will have 3-4 chances, and he’s basically a guarantee.
D: Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati: The Ravens look to make lots of big plays against the Bengals - I look to benefit.
PAPA’S Week 12 SLEEPERS
Tyler Thigpen: I like this kid. And he’ll be here until otherwise posted.
Kyle Orton: He’ll need to do some good things for the Bears against the Vikings - they’ll need to throw the rock against that defense - Kyle is good, so I think he’ll have a nice day doing so.
Warrick Dunn: I know the Saints have had a better run defense this season, but Dunn is still a nice start for the last week of the regular fantasy season.
Ronnie Brown: He’s been anything but a good starter for most of the season, but I’m willing to put my name on the line saying he’ll be better this week.
Kevin Walter: I know Sage likes to throw to his buddy Kevin, and I know Jacksonville’s secondary is sieved like. Add those things together and Kevin is a nice start this week.
Domenick Hixon: What can I say? I like this kid and think he has a shot to do some good things against the Redskins secondary.
Devin Hester: He didn’t have a great game against the Vikings last time out, but I think Devin will do good things against the Vikings this time around.
Zach Miller: He’s still a Raider, but JaMarcus Russell completed just one pass to a WR last week, and that shows you where his comfort zone is. It starts in the middle with this big sure-handed cat.
Miami Dolphins: They play the Rams. The Rams are a turnover machine. The Rams really stink. I’ll take the Dolphins to dominate defensively.
Papa’S Week 13 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)
Kerry Collins: He may look like a good spot start this week against the Lions - I just don’t buy it. The Titans will be running the ball, and Kerry will go back to the beginning of the season numbers where he had 3 TDs and 3 picks in the first 7 or 8 games. If he doesn’t have to throw, the Titans won’t make him do it.
Timothy Hightower: If you haven’t learned to keep this guy out of your starting lineup - then you never will.
Clinton Portis: I’m going out on a limb here, but I don’t think the Giants will allow Clinton to do anything on the ground - they are too smart to allow that.
Lee Evans: I have a feeling that Nate Clements plays pissed off after getting big brothered by TO all day Sunday - that is bad news for Lee Evans owners.
theRUNDOWN: Week 12
November 17, 2008 by Papa Weimer · Leave a Comment
For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. I’ll list a few sleepers and some guys I wouldn’t play for hopes of a better options - here goes Week 12’s action… Two big weeks in a row has me aiming for 200 - as impossible as that seems.
QB: Peyton Manning vs. San Diego: There’s a chance that Manning just hands the ball off to Joseph Addai a lot, and doesn’t get the full fantasy point production I’m hoping for. However, he is going up against a great secondary to throw on (hell, Big Ben and the Steelers went over 300 in snow last week), and knowing Peyton, he’ll take full advantage of the air attack.
RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Jacksonville: This years’ Jaguars don’t strike me as a team with a chance to stop AP. I think the Vikings jump on Peterson’s back and hope to God that doesn’t injure his knees. I’ll strap my hopes to AP as well.
RB: Matt Forte vs. St.Louis: Not only is Matt a nice play against just about every defense the league has to offer, but the Rams are one of the worst run defenses in the last 10 years. He should continue his run for rookie of the year.
FLEX: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Indianapolis: This hasn’t been a good year for LT, but he looked pretty darn good against the Steelers on Sunday, and that can only mean good things for his chances for a big day against the Colts.
WR: Reggie Wayne vs. San Diego: And I continue to put my eggs in the Colts passing basket this week. Lets hope I don’t have to catch it out of the fan like Cutler and Marshall, Rodgers and Jennings - you get me?
WR: Andre Johnson vs. Cleveland: Andre hasn’t beasted anybody lately, that can only mean it’s coming. Unfortunately for the Browns, they draw AJ in Week 12.
TE: Kellen Winslow vs. Houston: This guy is the best receiver in Cleveland - that’s right Braylon Edwards, KWII is the best receiver on your team. He’ll have a good day against the Texans.
K: Robbie Gould vs. St. Louis: Seems like a no-brainer. The Bears don’t have a dominant touchdown scoring team but any team with half an attack can get in field goal range in St. Louis. The game is indoors so there’s no weather problems. Go for the gold Gould… Ha, Gold-Gould - awesome.
D: Chicago Bears vs. St. Louis: No need to explain this one, just go for it and celebrate!
PAPA’S Week 12 SLEEPERS
Tyler Thigpen: At home against Buffalo? You bet! Until you guys start picking up my man Tyler - he’s going to be a sleeper and he’s going to be a starter for me.
Kyle Orton: He struggled last week, and the Bears are bound to run more than pass - but I think Kyle does enough good this week to get him into the Top 10 - he’s available in leagues, kind of weird.
Warrick Dunn: WD40 will get the most carries against a terrible Lions defensive front. That’s worth a start.
Pierre Thomas: Against Green Bay? Sure, the Packers were better against the run last week, but they’ll have to show me one more time or I’ll keep starting sleepers against that d-front. Thomas is still the best pure running back in New Orleans - lets hope their head coach realizes that.
Antonio Bryant: PPR guy against the Lions - the Bucs shouldn’t have to throw that much, but Bryant isn’t a bad option in a pinch.
Mark Bradley: I still like this kid despite a mediocre week against the Saints - he’s fast and can get up and get it. Thigpen is legit and likes to throw Mark’s way.
James Jones: An absolute stab in the dark, i know, but I like the match-up and I’ve always liked Jones - his best game of the season coming right up.
Zach Miller: A Raider? I must be sick. But I don’t think there’s a better pass catcher in Oakland against Denver’s safeties. He’s a nice sleeper.
Denver Broncos: One of the worst defenses in all of football - so they are the ultimate sleeper. If you’re a “pick a new D every week” guy - this option is right up your alley.
Papa’S Week 12 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)
Trent Edwards: He may be going up against the Chiefs, but I don’t like him this week - the Chiefs are better than advertised and Edwards regardless of him Monday Night tilt, I don’t want to start him in Week 12.
Timothy Hightower: If you didn’t at first, you are now starting to understand why I was so hesitant to anoint Tim as the next great rookie back after his solid game against the Rams. He hasn’t done much the last couple weeks, and this week against the Giants will be no different.
Maurice Jones Drew: There is no doubt, this kid is a stud and a touchdown machine - but the Jaguars hate giving him the ball, and against the Vikings I don’t think his 12 touches will be enough to make him fantasy worthy.
Santonio Holmes: I didn’t think he’d blow up this season, and I haven’t been that impressed - the Steelers will run 2-1 on Thursday, and that won’t leave many opportunities for Santonio.
theRUNDOWN: Week 11
November 14, 2008 by luckylester · 1 Comment
For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Last week was one of my better RUNDOWN’s despite Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings pooping their respective bunk beds. This is my RUNDOWN for Week 11…
QB: Jay Cutler vs. Atlanta: I’m hoping to be wrong about this one, because I play against Cutler in some pretty big leagues this week - but the kid should have a nice game against a Falcons team that has been playing better in the secondary - it’s time to come back to reality folks.
RB: Matt Forte vs. Green Bay: Forte is the Bears offense, the Packers can’t stop the run, Matt catches passes with ease - nice play here.
RB: Frank Gore vs. St.Louis: Not only do I like Frank and his matchup - but how do you think the kid feels after falling down and costing his team a win last week? I’d like to think that he has a huge game against the Rams here.
FLEX: DeAngelo Williams vs. Detroit: I like some touchdowns against the Lions defense - weird.
WR: Anquan Boldin vs. Seattle: Because nobody can stop this guy. He’s a touchdown machine.
WR: Roddy White vs. Denver: I like Roddy a ton, and so does Matt Ryan - that means good things for both of us against the Broncos “secondary” - brutal.
TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. New Orleans: He may be old, but he’s damn good, and he’s getting targeted by Thigpen more than any other player on KC’s roster.
K: Stephen Gostkowski vs. Buffalo: I’d go for Gostkowski, but I’m late - he already had a huge game. So I’ll take Jason Elam to put up a couple field goals and about 4-5 extra points. Let the field goals be long ones Jason!!!
D: Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit: Two weeks in a row? Hey, blame the schedulers - Oakland and Detroit back to back is like Halloween and Christmas clumped into one. That’s right, girls dressed in hot little outfits and presents.
PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS
Tyler Thigpen: Amazingly, you can still get him and he’s probably your best starting option this week. I know he’s starting for me. Does that mean bad things? Hmmm….
Matt Ryan: Is he a sleeper still? He’s a nice play against Denver.
Ricky Williams: They want to get him the ball more, he looks solid, he plays Oakland. There you have it. There’s a chance you can pick him up to fill in for Steven Jackson. Do it.
Jerious Norwood: I’d rather start Norwood in a PPR league than a big clump of starters this week - so he’s a nice sleeper option.
Brandon Jones: He’s been consistent over the last few weeks, and Jacksonville’s defense is lost - he’s a decent option.
Mark Bradley: He might still be available - don’t hesitate. \
Deion Branch: He’s risky, no doubt, but pick him up at least. He’s back, and so is my bald brother Matt - so don’t mess around.
Billy Miller: I’ll go with Billy until Jeremy Shockey pulls his head out. Got me?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Should stop the run enough to make Gus throw - that means picks.
Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)
David Garrard: I don’t think much of David against the TItans - Jacksonville will try to run all day. That won’t work either, but goodness, I don’t see Jacksonville scoring more than once.
Willis McGahee: No thank you. I don’t think Willis has played well in two straight games this whole season. The Giants will hammer out the Ravens run I reckon.
Brandon Jacobs: He looked pretty banged up last week and this week is pure death, Baltimore. I would stay away from Jacobs if you have another option.
TJ Houshmanzadeh: If you can still get good stuff for him, trade him, this week is a start of a terrible schedule the rest of the way.
theRUNDOWN: Week 10
November 5, 2008 by luckylester · Leave a Comment
For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Last week was one of my worst RUNDOWN’s of all time, so I’m definitely feeling anxious at the chance to do something great this time around. This is my RUNDOWN for Week 10…
QB: Aaron Rodgers vs. Minnesota: Aaron has been the real deal since taking over for Brett, and people are starting to realize what the Packers were up to when the traded the golden arm in the NFL. Rodgers should have his way with the Vikings secondary, and he doesn’t have a long history of playing poorly in Minnesota (like old man Favre).
RB: Adrian Peterson vs. Green Bay: The Packers don’t have a good run defense and you know Aaron Rodgers and company will be putting up points. Adrian Peterson should be a work horse on Sunday, and I’m hoping for one of those “that guy is amazing” weeks from AP.
RB: Jamal Lewis vs. Denver: With Brady Quinn under center, the Browns will be feeding Jamal Lewis to take some pressure off their beacon of hope - that being said, this is the Denver Broncos and Jamal is looking to break 150 yards in the first half.
FLEX: LaDainian Tomlinson vs. KC: Alright, there’s just something about an LT/AP lineup that gets me all hoogily boogily - I’ll take LT2 against the KC Chiefs.
WR: Anquan Boldin vs. San Francisco: Anquan Boldin is a beast, a touchdown beast. I like him to carve up the 49ers secondary this week.
WR: Greg Jennings vs. Minnesota: I like Greg’s match-up against the Vikings. Jennings is the read deal and he should torment Minnesota with his ability to run after the catch.
TE: Kellen Winslow vs. Denver: The Broncos secondary is brutal and Kellen will be a mismatch that a young Brady Quinn will take advantage of. There it is.
K: Stephen Gostkowski vs. Buffalo: Yeah, I’m back to Gostkowski. I think the Pats move the ball enough to get their young kicker into a nice field goal groove, so I’ll roll with the only kicker to ever get me good points.
D: Carolina Panthers vs. Oakland: The Raiders are brutal and you can bet they’ll be throwing more this week after the team tallied up less than 100 yards of offense against the Atlanta juggernaut last week. More passing means more mistakes and the Panthers reap the benefits.
PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS
Tyler Thigpen: It’s no secret, I’m on the Thigpen bandwagon…
Daunte Culpepper: Make sure he’s starting, but why not, right? The guy hasn’t been in the league for about a year, and I still like him against the Jags defense. If anyone knows how to throw it up for talented wide receivers, it’s the guy that made a pro bowl career out of doing so in Minnesota.
Maurice Jones Drew: The Lions are in town again, if i had the guy I would be starting him.
Timothy Hightower: San Francisco doesn’t really scare me all that much, and Timmy is getting the carries on the goalline and in the middle of the field. He should have a solid day this week.
Mushin Muhammad: This guy should be a PPR genius this week, catching at least 8 balls against the Raiders defense that should be intrigued as to who is getting cut tomorrow… What a joke Oakland is.
Mark Bradley: He’s been good since cracking the starting lineup in KC, and now he has a pretty solid match-up against the Chargers secondary. I like this kid a lot.
Billy Miller: This guy is still available in a lot of leagues, and while Jeremy Shockey is back, Miller’s useful weeks in a row make him a nice sleeper candidate here.
New York Jets: The Rams offense makes me sick, and I think Marc Bulger is part of the problem. His offensive line is brutal, sure, but he plays scared and throws the ball way off target even when he’s not getting rushed.
Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)
Big Ben Roethlisberger: Too many question marks, and if the Steelers are up, they are likely to go with Byron just to protect Big Ben.
Bernard Berrian: BB keeps having tough games against the physical Packer corners - based on that I wouldn’t play him. Unless your me and your only other option is Marvin Harrison. Ugh.
Steve Slaton: I really like Steve, but he’s braving the Ravens this week and they never give up anything to running backs - he should still be a threat in a PPR league, and I might play him if I didn’t have great options, but Sage likes to throw the ball down field, and that doesn’t help Slaton’s cause.
Marvin Harrison: I like him less than BB this week- I know that because I have that option and I’m starting Berrian. That beings said, Berrian is also on my sit him list, so that makes Marvin a super sit him.
theRUNDOWN: Week 9
October 31, 2008 by luckylester · Leave a Comment
For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. Just in case you didn’t catch it, this is my RUNDOWN for Week 8…
QB: Matt Schaub vs. Minnesota: Maybe I’m a little edgy for taking Schaub (and his Texans) to do good work on the road against a team coming off a bye. My guess, Minnesota didn’t fix their terrible secondary over a bye week.
RB: Matt Forte vs. Detroit: Clinton Portis killed the Lions in limited action - I expect Detroit to be a little better, but Matt is a big time focus of the Lions offense - I can’t imagine him getting less than 20 fantasy points this week.
RB: Earnest Graham vs. Kansas City: Thomas Jones was the guy hurt most by the Jets willingness to throw interceptions last week, well, I think Earnest Graham does work against the Chiefs in Week 9. Warrick Dunn is likely out for this contest, leaving Graham to snag all the carries.
FLEX: Brandon Marshall vs. Miami: The Dolphins are solid run stuffers, and their secondary is porous. Marshall hasn’t gone off in a while now, and I expect that to change in a hurry.
WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. St. Louis: Anquan Boldin has been catching all the touchdowns, but I get a feeling that Fitz will be the high scorer for the Cards this week.
WR: Andre Johnson vs. Minnesota: Honestly, I’d take Johnson against any defense in the league. That being said, I get a little smile when I see MInnesota on the schedule. All Andre needs to do is score, he has only two on the season.
TE: Zach Miller vs. Atlanta: A big sure handed TE is a quarterback’s best friend. In PPR leagues I think Miller has a really nice day against the Falcons secondary.
K: Matt Prater vs. Miami: IN Denver against a defense that isn’t good enough to shut down the Broncos, but isn’t bad enough to allow touchdowns on every drive, I think Prater gets his leg going.
D: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle: The Eagles can really get after the quarterback, they have 3 talented corners, (very talented), and they have playmaking safeties. They should eat up the Seagulls.
PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS
David Garrad: This time Garrard gets Cincinnati and I think he has a decent day, he’s not my favorite sleeper, but he’s worth a shot.
Chad Pennington: I know it’s a bye week happy stat, but just one quarterback over the past 4 weeks has thrown for more yards than Pennington (Brees I think) - I know that sounds crazy, but Chad has been putting up close to 300 or more every week. This week is Denver sans Champ Bailey - yhatzee!!!
Maurice Jones Drew: Big week for MJD.
Justin Fargas: Not only has Fargas been the best back in Oakland, but this week he’ll likely go at the Atlanta Falcons without Darren McFadden stealing his touches. I like my chances on picking up Fargas and starting him.
Donnie Avery: This may be a duh call, but Avery goes up against a Cardinals secondary that can really give up the deep ball - he’s bee good lately, and Arizona can stop the run enough to force the pass - and force it the Rams will.
Chad Johnson: It’s been a tough year when Chad Johnson has been relegated to Sleeper status. However, Ryan Fitzpatrick has to be getting a little more comfortable and Chad could always have a huge day. He’s no sure thing, but against a mediocre Jags secondary, I think Chad has a solid day. 80 yards and a score for his best day of the year?
Greg Olsen: Greg goes up against the Lions. He’s talented and a tough match-up for a slow secondary. Seems like a good play to me.
New England Patriots: This may be a long shot, but the Colts have no running attack, that allows Coach Bill to scheme against one thing, the pass. They may be hurting, but I like the Pats to get to Manning and produce a few turnovers.
Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)
Big Ben Roethlisberger: This guy is bound to get hurt with the way teams hit him - he’s a questionable play the rest of the season in my mind - I think Washington gets to him a few times here.
Ryan Grant: Those who know me know I dig Ryan Grant, but the cat has been struggling with lots of carries and minimal yards against pretty pathetic defenses. These are the Titans, and in greek mythology the Titans were even greater than the gods…
Edgerrin James: For eternity folks, bench him that long. I’ve been one of his biggest fans, but there’s a time when you have to let go, when he’s still a strong bench him candidate against the Rams, now’s that time.
Terrell Owens: TO has the ability to go off anytime - he historically eats up the Giants - all that means little to me right now because I’m benching TO this week.
theRUNDOWN: Week 7
October 16, 2008 by luckylester · 1 Comment
For those of you new to theRUNDOWN this is what I do. I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. After that I list a couple sleepers, either decent guys that I expect to have good weeks, or relatively unused guys I like to do well. Then, at the end I list a few usually solid guys that I would leave on the bench. This is my Week 7 group…
QB: Jay Cutler vs. New England: The Broncos are used to beating the Patriots and Cutler has a nice arm. Eddie Royal will be back this week and I think Cutler takes advantage of the Pats weak secondary. It was a toss up between him, Manning and Aaron Rodgers, but I’m leaning on Jay this week.
RB: Clinton Portis vs. Cleveland: The Browns were better last week, but Portis torches everyone these days, he doesn’t discriminate. I like him to have a nice day in a close Redskins win.
RB: Marion Barber vs. Rams: Romo’s injury means a lot more carries for Barber. Marion will torch the Rams defense and I see a multiple touchdown day for him this week.
FLEX: Greg Jennings vs. Colts: He’s one of my favorite receivers in the league to watch, and I think he’ll do some work against the Colts. He’s very physical and all Rodgers needs to do is put the ball somewhere he can get to it.
WR: Brandon Marshall vs. New England: If the Patriots can’t stop Vincent Jackson they can’t stop Brandon Marshall (no offense to Jackson, I think he is a very good player). Marshall is my top receiver this week.
WR: Andre Johnson vs. Detroit: Did you see Johnson big brothering the Dolphins last week? It was awesome. Need a lot of yards Schaub? Just throw it in the direction for Johnson he’ll beast anyone around and steal the ball away from them, pop it, and go home with their lunch money. I like a guy like that, especially against the lion cubs.
TE: Jason Witten vs. St. Louis: Good secondary match-up and the TE is the easiest guy to get the ball to for a 2nd string quarterback. Either way, Romo or Johnson, I like Witten to get the rock 5-8 times on Sunday.
K: Stephen Gostkowski vs. Denver: Versus Denver is my new kicker treat because I can’t seem to have any success at this position. I’ll just take versus Denver and do my darnedest.
D: Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Seattle: The Bucs defense is a stout unit, no doubt about that. The Hawks are brutal and they throw a lot. There you have it, turnovers and a low score - that equals yhatzee.
PAPA’S Week 1 SLEEPERS
Matt Cassel: Against the Broncos, you bet - the Patriots will have to get their points somewhere and I’m willing to bet that Cassel plays better this week.
Jason Campbell: I think Jason throws two touchdowns this week against the Browns, but this game will have more than a couple scores going on. Good game to play Campbell.
Earnest Graham: Still not getting enough touches to be a sure thing, I’m willing to bet that Graham sees 10-15 against the Hawks and that will be good for 60-90 yards and probably a score.
Darren McFadden: I like McFadden against the Jets. He’s a superb gamebreaker type back and he hasn’t really busted one for a while. I think he puts up about 80 yards and a score against New York this Sunday - but the Raiders lose big again.
Vincent Jackson: Play him while he’s hot. All he needs is targets. He’s usually bigger and faster than anyone guarding him, and Rivers has been playing well enough to make sure Vincent gets the ball. I like him over some stars against this week.
Lance Moore: I still like Moore for one more week.
Devin Hester: Hester didn’t get into the zone last week, but he caught enough balls (6?) and went for 90+ yards so I think he’s a great option against the Vikings. Hester is very fast and the Vikings shut down the run and are open ended in the secondary. That should mean a nice day for Devin.
Greg Olsen: Same with Hester I think Olsen is a nice mismatch for a mediocre Vikings secondary.
Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys need to step up somewhere, and I think their elite talent on defense gets them attacking Bulger and causing turnovers.
Papa’S Week 6 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)
Gus Frerotte: I don’t like Gus this week. He’ll turn the ball over and the Bears, in my mind, are winning this week easily.
Willis McGahee: McGahee won’t do much - weird. Apparently Willis is off the injury report - but don’t let that excite you too much, the Ravens aren’t going to be smashing the Dolphins around this week.
Adrian Peterson: You won’t sit him, and that’s fine, but he couldn’t really do much against the Lions or the Saints - now the Bears??? Maybe he just does what he does and goes off for 200 yards, that’s why you can’t sit him, but I predict another bad week for AP.
Chad Johnson: So far Chad has just been the normal Chad without any big weeks. He usually goes off a couple times a season and gets some solid numbers on his side. That won’t happen this week with Fitzy throwing him the ball.
