Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Drafts and a Big Fat Contest

I’m at it again. Somehow, someway, I continue to fight my own oldness and blast father time in the face with new ideas and an acute sense of fantasy know how. I’m wild, no doubt about it, and my antics are often unnecessary, but when it gets down to the nitty gritty, the “i need an answer, a reason, a bone” to get you through your fantasy week, by all means, I’m your guy. All you have to do is email me at PAPAWEIMER50@HOTMAIL.COM and I’ll get back to you as soon as possible – almost always that day, in fact – because I’m old, and rarely leave the house. Plus I have internet hooked up to my 60inch big screen so I can see the dang words.

Before I get into answering this week’s questions (or sharing my answers with you all) I have some good news. This year I get to post some contests here and there, and I get to divvy out the winnings as well. This is the first contest I’ve ever run and so I’m going to do something fun.

Fantasy Knuckleheads is sponsoring my BEST Team Name contest. The winner will receive season long access to their Fantasy Football Draft and In-season Package.

Prize: Free season long subscription to Fantasy Knuckleheads’ Dominator Package, a $24 value.

Contest: The first contest is an easy one. All I want you to do is send the best fantasy football team name you’ve ever had to PAPAWEIMER50@HOTMAIL.COM. I’ll give you until Friday, September 2nd to get me your name . I’ll post my favorites in my next article, and announce my winner.

The Catch: There’s no catch. The Contest is free. Just send me an email with a team name, and that enters you right into the contest. I like witty, I like funny. Good luck!

Now for the Q&A

Jason BD in Indianapolis writes, “This is my first season as a fantasy football guy. I’ve always frowned on the idea of rooting for anybody but Colts. But this season my son roped me into his fantasy league, and I found your site when looking for help. A couple questions: If you wanted Peyton Manning for sure, where would you draft him? How about Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai, and Pierre Garcon? Dallas Clark? Also, Do you think I could win with all Colts? Thanks!”

Oh Jason, fantasy and home team pride are a tough combination to unleash in any sort of winning matter. I’ll give you my answers, places you will almost surely be able to get your Colts, but I would do my best to mix in some top talent around your guys. You’ll never beat your son in fantasy with a team full of Colts, I can promise you that! I think you can get Peyton Manning pretty easily in the 2nd round. Even the 3rd round if you’re a Top 4 pick in the fantasy draft. These questions about his neck are perfect for you getting him later. No earlier than the 2nd round, though – Peyton as a 1st round pick is too high a price to pay. I think you can get Reggie Wayne in the 3rd round, maybe even the 4th. He goes about 35th overall – and rarely before the Top 30. Like Manning, his stock is falling a bit because of his QB’s health. You can get Dallas in the 5th round. His stock isn’t falling as much, which makes sense. In fact, I expect Manning to play at least 14 games this season which means drafting him at a discount is a great deal. I think Garcon goes a little high, but he’s safe to get around the 8th round. Probably 9th, but if you need him on your squad, the 8th is it. Addai in the 10th is a pretty safe place to get him. So, if you really love these guys, I’d probably hope for a draft that looks like this….

1. Chris Johnson  2. Peyton Manning 3. Reggie Wayne 4. DeSean Jackson  5. Dallas Clark  6. Felix Jones  7. Mario Manningham 8. Pierre Garcon  9. Eli Manning 10. Joseph Addai… And so on. I hope you reconsider, check out our TIERED RANKINGS, but if not – shoot for some big play makers in the rest of your picks – and NO COLTS in Round 1!

Corey Singer asks, “You say you’ve done 7 drafts so far, that’s nothing compared to my 47 – however, you might be paying better attention than me, who do you think is the guy going as the biggest steal in the Top 25 picks thus far?

Corey, I’d say that’s a tough one, but it’s not. I’d give you a quick answer and make this entire thing a lot easier, but that’s not really my style, so I’m not. However, if you want to cut down a few minutes reading this deal, go ahead and scroll down to the bottom. If you had asked me the biggest steal in the Top 35 picks, I might have answered somebody like Vincent Jackson – VJ is healthy, playing for a free agent deal, has one of the best young QBs in the business on a team that likes to throw. He’s a freak of nature and in the preseason he looks good. He’s going after 30 in all but 2 of my 7 drafts, and I think he’s a Top 5 WR. If you had said in all of fantasy, that would have really opened up the flood gates, and I would have said that Lance Kendricks (I’m projecting Top 7 TE, and he’s going undrafted in most leagues – unless I pick him), Donovan McNabb (he’s going after 160 almost always – he’s in a better offense that’s more shaped around what he’s always done – and defenses will have to honor the run-game), or Mario Manningham (he’s going too late, he’s going to be a beast as the #2 in New York). But since you said Top 25, that made it pretty easy. Maurice Jones-Drew is thievery at pick 18-23 where I’ve gotten him three times. He’s expected to play in preseason Week 4, he’s a super consistent TD scoring machine that does everything. And someone recently took Jahvid Best over him. Please. MJD is a Top 8 fantasy pick, and if he’s not, steal him!

Seb from Australia writes, “This’ll be my first season of fantasy NFL. I live out in Australia, so don’t get to watch many games, but have enjoyed following the sport for the last 2 -3 years, albeit fairly loosely.This year though, a friend as cajoled me into joining his league; it’s a $20 buy in, winner take all. My ego dictates I must win, so my question to you is, when it comes time to draft, in what order of value do i place RBs, WRs, QBs and TEs?”

Seb, Thanks for the email! Over the years I’ve certainly had some thoughts on which positions you should go for first, but no matter what I decide, it always changes on draft day. I think nabbing RBs and WRs early is very important, but the value in the draft makes all the difference. I try to tier my rankings so that I know I’m always getting the best positional value and still getting good overall value. I like to start trends. Like in Round 5, if none of the TEs have been drafted yet, it’s a good time to get your favorite guy, maybe Antonio Gates or Dallas Clark or Jermichael Finley – because it’s always better to start a trend than grab on the back of one. I’m not saying go get a TE in the 4th round, not at all, I’m just saying, if it’s good value at the time, it’s not bad to be a trend setter. (but never get a defense or a kicker early in the draft – never…ever!) I still think RB is the most important position, though WR has made a run at the top spot over the last few years. RBs touch the ball more than anyone else except for QBs (but you usually only get 1 QB in your starting line-up). Because of that, they have the most consistent production and that’s huge. If you can get 2 great consistent RBs with your first 2 picks (AP, CJ, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, MJD, McCoy, Mendenhall, Steven Jackson) I say go for it. If you can only Cajole a singe one, go ahead and take a star WR in Round 2 and get one of the next tier running backs in Round 3 or Round 4. Good Luck!

Ask Papa Weimer #2: 2011 NFL Draft Kit

Back at it again. A week of emails have come in and I continue to answer them with my best foot forward – whatever the hell that means. I wish I could answer them with my best back forward – I’d trade a couple retirement checks for a best back right about now. Anyway, below are some answer to some email questions. Feel free to join in on the fun and question the king of the fantasy realm – me and Tolkien, right? Get to me at papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I’ll get back to you as prompt as possible.

DBM in one of the Dakotas asks, “How will Marshawn and Sydney Rice do in Seattle this year?”

I think the Seahawks will be much better offensively, and it all centers around the offensive line. James Carpenter is a good RT prospect that does everything pretty well, he’s not a liability in pass or run blocking, and is above average at both. Robert Gallery is a great addition as well, probably the best OG on the market. The Hawks had the worst offensive line in football last year, and now with rookies and 2nd year guys, plus a big FA addition, they’ll be better. I like that Tarvaris Jackson comes over as a leader, one of the most knowledgeable players on the team about the offense they’ll be running in Seattle (because, like him, it came from Minnesota). As a leader, and teacher, he’ll have much more confidence to what’s going on, and I think that will help him a ton – because remember, he was always the guy they dumbed down the offense for when he was in – that does nothing for your confidence. You ask little of someone, you get little in return. I don’t know where Rice is going in drafts, but as my #3 receiver I like his upside. He’ll lead the Hawks in receiving this year.

David in Minnesota writes, “I am in a keeper league and I can keep up to 4 players.If I keep 4 – I will lose my first 4 picks, if I keep 3 then I will lose my first 3 picks etc. Next bit of info I will be drafting 11th in each round. It is a snake draft without reversing. Here are the players I am trying to figure out who to keep and how many. What do you think? (Brady, MJD, Bradshaw, Best, Sid Rice, Stevie Johnson, Colston, Welker)

I would probably only keep 2, maybe 3 guys on your squad. The only reason I would keep 3 is because your pick is so late in Round 3 – but so early in Round 4, so you have to take a chance and hope you can get a better 4th player. Brady and MJD (unless you trade for Charles) are sure thing keepers, obviously. They are both Top 2 round players, and so you keep them. After that, I don’t see any given there. I think Best is your next best upside player, and while I ranked him as a 4th round guy prior to LeShoure’s season ending injury, he might be a nicer risk as a 3rd rounder now. I would consider Colston over Best, if you think the draft will be more RB heavy than WR heavy – they are both very close to me, but I’d go with Best without knowledge of other rosters. Welker, maybe, but he’s limited in non-ppr leagues, and I think he’s right around Colston’s grade, with not as much upside. Because you’re one of the highest 4th round picks, take a chance and see if you can’t upgrade at WR. Good luck!

David gets another questions off in a lengthy email… “Would you think of a trade for Jamaal Charles, giving up MJD and one of my receivers? A guy in our league has no receivers…”

It’s pretty well documented that I picked Charles as the #1 back in fantasy for the upcoming season. Since I don’t think you should keep any of your receivers, I’d say yeah, jump in and make that deal. Lucky says “no don’t do it, MJD is more consistent” but hey, he says it’s close, and my feeling has always been my feeling, and since this isn’t “Ask Lucky Lester” I’m pretty sure I’m gonna say what I want. Charles has the upside and the offensive line to be the best running back in fantasy. He’s lightning quick and doesn’t take big hits. MJD doesn’t have his upside, if you can get him and all it’s really gonna cost you is MJD (who I rank behind Charles, Peterson, C Johnson, Foster, and Ray Rice) then do it!

Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Football Draft Kit Edition

We’ve been instructed to put together as much “draft help” content up as possible – to change the things we normally do to better aid the masses in putting together winning fantasy squads. From what I’ve been told, the site is going to be popping with such articles, and possibly even a way for you to rank your very own squad based on a new formula. But that will come, for now it’s all about my answers to your questions…

Now, while I’m supposed to make this as much about fantasy drafting as I can, forgive me if I do what I want from time to time and just post some humorous answers to even funnier questions – what’s fantasy football Q&A without a laugh or two?

If you’re new to the site, or me, Papa Weimer, I’m an old terse man with a knack for the sport of football. I’ve spent many an hour winning staring contests with the television on Sundays, Mondays, and sometimes Saturdays and Thursdays… If you want to get a hold of me and see if I can’t assist you in answering one of your questions, send your mail to papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I’ll get to answering your Qs as quick as possible.

Here are some of the emails I’ve answered over the lockout….

Dave in Fernberg asks, “If there’s no NFL season will you finally answer my questions about CFL or continue to shun me by mocking my emails with replies titled, “What does C stand for?”???

Dave, of course I won’t ever answer those emails seriously, because they are jokes, right? I mean, they are mock emails, similar to mock drafts, similar to mock leagues, because they don’t still play games in Canada, do they? I mean, I know Buffalo is basically Canada, but it’s still the US. Canada is where they play hockey, not football. I know you guys get football on your TVs, 98% of your population lives within 100 yards of the US-border, so just pick up a coat hanger, bend it around your hockey stick, plug it into the back of your TV and see if you can’t steal cable from your big red white and blue brother. Silly, Dave….  PS – Where’s Canada?

Dustin in Oregon writes, “I hear the players and owners are getting their ducks in a row – speaking of Ducks, do you think Legarrette Blount could be better than Steven Jackson? My OSU brother in law is giving me 10-1 odds on a $50 bet after I told him that Blount and Jackson will be close. Should I take it or am I just losing $50?”

That’s actually closer for me than you’d think – I would rather have Steven Jackson if I were deciding one way or another, but I like me some big bad Blount force. It’s close enough where I would probably take that bet at a 3-1 payout – so 10-1 sounds great! You have to look at it like this, Steven Jackson hasn’t been a scoring machine ever, so despite his giant percentage of plays in St. Louis, he doesn’t have those high scoring days like some other backs. Playing an entire year is going to help Blount, but not as much as walking into camp with the #1 gig. Caddy Williams is likely gone, and he’s going to be a 3rd down back even if he stays. Blount is the guy, and he runs real hard and is real bit – so I’d put his upside at 1200 yards and 12 touchdowns – but I think his downside is 900 yards and 8 touchdowns – and since Jackson is getting older, his injury risk is going up – I think you have odds too good to pass up, good luck with your angry Duck!

Scott Pa from Texas asked, “I know the lockout is in full effect, so maybe fantasy questions right now will go unanswered, but I’m interested in your rookie RB rankings (if the season actually goes down) – you have a Top 5 for me?”

From one Pa to another, you betcha, bub! From the first time I watched Mark Ingram run, I couldn’t help but think, “that guy is going to be a top 10 RB in the NFL the day he steps foot on the field”. Then he went to the combine and didn’t run super fast – and I figured, I could care less that he wasn’t the fastest back of the bunch after 40 yards, he was still one of the fastest guys to 10 yards and 20 yards – what’s more important? So his top end speed isn’t amazing, and he won’t be busting Jamaal Charles or Chris Johnson 60 yard runs a couple times per year – big deal – he’s still a beast, runs real hard with great balance, and he’s the #1 back in this draft. If I didn’t think so much of Jahvid Best, LeShoure would probably be 2nd, but because Best will almost surely get half the carries, Mikel drops down a spot or two. Ronnie and Ricky are gone, or so it seems, and Daniel Thomas is the next guy in line. He was a solid player as the only offensive threat at Kansas State, and I think he’ll be solid in the league as well. He’s a big back with good speed. The rest goes like this.

Mark Ingram, Daniel Thomas, Ryan Williams, Mikel LeShoure, and Montario Hardesty….

Alright, I know Hardesty was a a draft pick 2 years ago, but he hasn’t played a down yet – so he’s still a rookie, right? Like Blake Griffin in the NBA a couple years ago? If that’s the case, look out for Ben Tate, too… Alright, just a rookie, I’ll go with Roy Helu Jr. Splinter Shanahan can stumble upon a solid runner from time to time, and you never know, Roy could be that guy.

BGTrouble in Alaska asks, “Randy Moss or Chad Ochocinco?”

Ugh… Why didn’t you just throw Terrell Owens in there with those guys. TO would get the nod if it wasn’t for his mystery injury, his probability of starting the season without a team, and his destructive locker room habits. But hey, you didn’t even ask about him… It’s hard for me to believe that Moss will ever be a fantasy force again. The way he gave up last season, his poor shape, his half routes in full effect, I just don’t see him being a guy I’d ever like to start – but with the last pick of my fantasy draft, if he’s there, I might just take him on principal. So I’m a hypocrite, sure, but I’ve been wrong before (like last time Moss was trying to flunk out of the league). He probably has a better feel for the WR position than anybody ever, his physical tools are nightmarish for CBs, and if he got into the right situation, he could stun me and turn into a starter again – but I think Chad Johnson has a better chance of getting that done. I guess there are more places that I think Chad could succeed. Moss needs that special circumstance. Chad just needs to go to a team with a WR better than him and an offensive line that can block long enough for Chad to get open. If I had to pick, I’d take the namechanger!

More of the Draft Kit to come! Hope this helps!

Fantasy Football Q&A: Ask Papa Weimer Week 13 Fantasy Predictions

Hey there, it’s late and way past my old-man bed time, but since it will take me 30 minutes to fall asleep, I figured I’d just listen to the clock tick-tock while writing this article and counting sheep. Baaaaaaaa (sheep sound). Week 13 is always an interesting one in the fantasy realm as 4 million people sit at 6-6 when 7-6 means playoffs. As it just so happens, 2 million of those people will be playing each other and thus, some apt fantasy advice from an old man like myself might just go a long way to getting the playoffs. Getting there is half the battle, as most of the time LUCK and some big-ball waiver wire moves (see Lucky’s Waiver Wire Warriors article for help there) end up getting one select fantasy owner a championship. But we have to get there first. For all you guys, and girl, (one girl wrote in this week, Jessie, you represent your sex well!) I hope this advice gets you to where you want to be!

Remember, hit me up at PAPAWEIMER50@HOTMAIL.COM - You got questions, I got answers!

David writes, “Which 3 WRs would you start out of these 4 – Austin, S Johnson, Colston, Lloyd (I am thinking Lloyd and Johnson for sure ,but then who?)”

Steve Johnson, Colston, and Lloyd I think for your big-3. Probably more in the order that you started with, Lloyd 1, Johnson 2, and Colston 3 – not that order matters, but if you wanted to go with Austin, I’d put him in for Colston. I think the match-ups are great for all three of the guys I picked to have great days, and Austin goes against one of the tougher defenses in the league for WRs and QBs to have big plays, or big days. I guess they are middle of the pack this season, but historically they don’t allow big plays at all. Johnson plays Minn, not great against WRs, Lloyd against KC is nice, because they give up big plays and he makes them, and Colston against Cincinnati could be good, I think the Bengals are about 25th ranked D against receivers in Fantasy Football. Plus they have been known to stay close for a while, which means the Saints would be more apt to pass longer.

Blog Dad asks, “Would you start Obomanu,Hagan or D Alexander (I have absolutely no clue here)”

I would go with Obo in your second batch, not because I think he’s great, but because I don’t think Hagan is a very good receiver and I think Alexaner is so streaky that he’s hard to trust. Obomanu might not have a starting spot locked up like Derek Hagan, but he’s good, fast, and has good hands (at least two things that Derek doesn’t have, maybe the trifecta). Obo has gotten Hasselbeck’s attention, and there’s something to be said for that. At least a couple deep balls have to go his way, and with trust, a handful of short Hass passes might just find Obo.

Brett Favre’s Conscience wrote, “Who would start? I need a Flex – Keiland Williams, T Jones, Sid Rice, Choice, and Welker ( I am leaning toward Welker because of the way Brady is playing and they will not be able  to run against the jets)”

I think Welker is tough to pick against right now, for that very reason of Brady – the only other guy I would go with is Thomas Jones, honestly – his match-up is very good. I just believe that the Jets have to pay all of their attention to Welker – with no big time deep threat they should key in on Wes. But then again, welker, and then Edelman the game Wes was out last year, killed the Jets especially in PPR. In that first game with no Welker, Edelman had 8 catches for 98 yards on 16 targets. In the second game Welker had 15 catches for 192 yards on 17 targets – that’s the one the Patriots won. It will be interesting to see how the Jets play the Pats without Moss, but he seems to be a tough match-up for them – so I think your lean is reasonable.

Stanleigh from Cali writes, “Well Lucky, Wayne’s drops and starting Sidney Rice got me where it counts last week, losing by a fantasy field goal. This week I need your opinion on the choice of Flacco, Big Ben, or Bradford at QB and Reggie Wayne, Austin, Obomanu, Sidney the Great, and James Jones at WR. Need 1 QB and 3 WRs. Thanks in advance!”

Going with the rookie is risky, but that Pitt/Raven match-up should be a tight one, a low-risk one, a grind it out, smash mouth, low scoring one – so I think you’re making the right decision. The Cardinals are bad and the Rams have trusted Sam to make good decisions in the red-zone all season long, that’s why Steven Jackson has such low TD numbers. Bradford is the real deal, and against the Cardinals a big day is possible.

Wayne is an auto, even thought he dropped at least 2 passes last week, maybe 3. Austin is also a guy you have to go with, I think, too much big play ability. As for Obomanu, it’s tough to go away from a guy that has had huge plays of late. Even before his late long distance love play, he was having a pretty good game last week. If Williams comes back, he might not get those same looks – and then I’d maybe go Rice – but the way Hass has been going to Obo, I think he’s a safe bet for points. If your not in the mood to bet on Rice again, Obo’s your guy either way.

Johnson from Finland writes, “I need one pick, for all the money, down to two in my survivor pool. I’ve been good, I have New Orleans, Indianapolis, Atlanta, and San Diego to choose from. Also have KC and Minnesota if they mean anything to you.”

Boy oh boy, Johnson, that’s a lot of pressure. I know I’ve helped you a couple times this year (like when I advised you to steer clear of the Giants in Week 10 (because you just never know about a new coach) and the Titans in Week 11 (because I’m wild like that) and though you didn’t listen to me and went with the Giants last week (you lucky bastard) you can see now why I wanted you to stay away from that game. But in the finals, in Week 13, I have to get you two opinions. Mine and Lucky’s…

Mine: Of the team’s you have left, and there are some good ones in there, I would go with the Chargers. San Diego is playing like San Diego does at the end of the year, and the Raiders are not playing like the Raiders had been playing when they finally got to .500 earlier this season. They are playing at home, they are winning on the ground and through the air. I don’t see any reason to pick anybody else – that’s as safe as a survivor in Week 13 can get.

Lucky’s: I would agree that the Chargers are a nice bet. But I rank them 2nd this week. Why? Because I think the Raiders could get it together for a big game against the Chargers, and while I don’t think it’s likely, it’s certainly possible. The Raiders have been able to really run it, and there’s no reason they can’t go back and find out why they are struggling lately (ahem, McFadden, get your ish together). The Chargers, remember, struggled for a great portion of the season, finding ways to lose like it was their job – and while they look to be turned around, they could always relapse. Still, Papa’s right, a good bet there. My #1 team of your bunch is New Orleans. I know it’s no the road, and I don’t love road games in Survivor, but there is no way the Saints lose to the Losers, I mean the Bengals. They are a terrible match-up for the mistake prone turnover happy Bengals. I think they win by 3 touchdowns in a laugher.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 12 Fantasy Football Advice

Okay, I haven’t been holding up my end of the bargain, and I’m sorry for that, they started giving away steaks for five dollars down at the local strip club and, well, I’ve spent enough time there that they started giving me free shirts with the girl’s pictures on them – I’m basically a walking add for boobies. It’s good. Some of that may be true, some of it may be false, but I have been busy doing stuff that I probably don’t need to do, so dang, I’m sorry. I’ve been answering the numerous emails coming in, so feel free to send me your questions, comments, frustrations, etc – and maybe I can straighten it all out.

Get to me at…. papaweimer50@hotmail.com

Here’s some of the stuff I’ve been saying to the good people writing in this week….

David from Minnesota asks, “Papa, what’s your take on Derek Hagan?”

My take on Hagan is this – Jacksonville, bad defense (I always think this on principal, it’s correct 99% of the time) and Hagan looks like the #2 receiver there, but he’s probably #3 behind Kevin Boss. Manningham is a good player, so defenses could double him and take their chances with Hagan, who has been on and off rosters since getting picked relatively high in the draft a few years ago. There’s a reason he usually doesn’t play, and I think it’s because he doesn’t run very good routes, is slow out of breaks, and that should make him a mediocre option. He didn’t really light it up last week. But you’re right to look at him – and I would probably rate him ahead of  Ben Obamanu (another player David asked about in a previous email), if only because Ben is a #3 receiver on an offense that doesn’t pass as much, and at least Hagan is a big cat that might get a jump ball or two in a goal line situation.

Joe was a first time sender and sent me this, “I’m sending out an S.O.S.  My team has had the injury bug all year long starting with, Ryan Grant, Steve Smith (Car), Owen Daniels, Tony Romo, and this latest one with Hakeem Nicks.  I feel I have a decent team but I could use a solid Waiver Wire pickup in both my TE and WR3 spots. Could you please review my squad and make some recommendations as to who I should grab? (Big Ben, Vincent Jackson, Bowe, Knox, Mendenhall, McFadden, Tony Moeki, Longwell, Ravens or Vikings – bench Blount, Watson, Nicks – and I have free roster spot) Thanks in advance!!!”

Hey Joe, thanks for writing in. I have a team that has all those first four players on it, Grant, Smith, Daniels, and Romo – needless to say I haven’t won too many games lately. Hopefully we can both turn it around.

Here are some things I might do to add some upside to your squad, but your starting line-up still looks pretty solid going forward. I also have Vincent Jackson (in that same league) and I’m hoping he can help me pull out two late season wins to get me into the playoffs as a low seed. Funny thing is, my league is a dynasty league, and I’ve had all those players for a while – just a tough run of luck there.

I think I’d pick up Hernandez, from New England, and just hope he’s a big part of the game plan against Detroit. I watched some of the angles Louis Dumas took in the Lions’ last game, and I think Hernandez could eat him up. He’s not as consistent as Watson and Moeki, but his upside is a lot higher – and I like upside at TE – because consistency gets you 5 or 6 points, upside could find you 20. You could drop Moeki to make that change if you want. The Chiefs do play Seattle, a legitimate bad pass defense, but the Hawks give up a lot of yards to receivers, so Moeki might not be as big a part of the game plan. Dreesan is another option. The Titans are solid defensively, but he’s looking like a nice target for Schaub with Owens likely out again. Either of those guys I’d rather start than Moeki or Watson (with Watson it’s just I don’t trust Delhomme to pass me the bread).

If you pick one of those guys up, and drop another – that still leaves you with two waiver pick ups. I think Nate Burleson would be my #1 options and Derek Hagan would be my #2. Listen, there’s a reason why Hagan has been out of starting line-ups for most of his down and down career, but Eli throws the rock, and Hagan looks like he’s in line to be the #1 receiver there from here on out. I guess that makes Boss relevant too, didn’t think of that. The Jaguars are historically not very good defensively, and a Boss play there might be nice after all. I think his floor is a lot higher than Hernandez, who, if not part of the game plan, hardly gets more than a target or two. However, I don’t know if Boss’s ceiling is as high. Up to you there, but Boss is a strong play as well, if only because Eli has to throw it somewhere. Gaffney would be #3 if it comes to that, but I think I’d try for Burleson. He’s just been too solid opposite Calvin Johnson. If you look at his stats since coming back from injury, he’s at a nice #2 receiver pace, and it’s not like the Patriots have been great against the pass.

Stan the man-Leigh typed, “Papa, always love your take – I’m currently starting Sidney Rice over Michael Crabtree – good move? Crab killed me last week. I also have Woodhead…”

Yeah, tough to argue about what you have there. Crabtree was a killer for me as well. Jones did catch just 3 balls, but touchdowns are nice. Crabtree against Arizona seems like a pretty good match-up, but stick with your gut here, because Rice is a beast, he played most of the game last week, and the Redskins have a bottom 30 pass defense. Plus he came out healthy. I like Woodhead against the Lions, getting carries and working out of the backfield – but I would never feel comfortable starting him. Just put your hopes in the guy you believe in, because I think he’s the highest upside guy you’ve got. Rice helped get Brett’s mojo back last season, why not again this time around?

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 9 Fantasy Football Questions

Lots of emails this week, keep ‘em coming! PAPAWEIMER50@hotmail.com – I’ll answer them with experience, honesty, and probably while drinking. Enjoy!

David wrote, “Papa, who would you start in a flex position this week: Best, Lynch, Williams(Sea), or Steve Johnson?”

Best and Lynch both have terrible match-ups, and I would stay away from both of them, even though I think they are the best players of the three. Mike Williams sure played poorly last week against Oakland, but he could fair better against the Giants – they seem to struggle with either really good or big, strong receivers. Dez Bryant carved them for 2 TDs, Andre Johnson had over 90 yards, Jason Witten had a really good game (he’s basically used as a really big receiver), Calvin Johnson torched them for 140+ -and those guys are all Mike Williams-ish sized. But I think I’d go with Steve Johnson. I mean, his TD streak has to stop sometime, he’s rocking 5 games in a row right now – but he’s a focal point of Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Chicago doesn’t let you run, so a full blown 30+ pass attempts for Fitzpatrick is likely.

Big Dave also sent in this gem, “Which QB should I pickup for week 10 bye: Fitz, Garrard, Young, Kitna, or Stafford?”

Kitna goes up against the Giants, and while he put up some nice stats, it was almost in garbage time – and we all saw how well that Big D offensive line blocked the G-men last time, so I wouldn’t pick him. Detroit plays Buffalo, who is up and down in the secondary, but it seems like he’s a solid option. The Titans play Miami, a team that just has a pretty solid defense overall, I’d probably stay away from Vincent Allen Young (made up that middle name, but it sounds like it would fit). Jacksonville plays Houston, and their worst pass defense in the league – but the Jags are either solid or terrible – and anytime you start their players, playing a good or bad team, it’s a risk. Ryan Fitzpatrick plays Detroit, as I said earlier, and he’s been pretty good (aside from last game, really) so he’s a good option, too. I think I’d go for Fitz, Stafford, or Fitzpatrick. I think Stafford has more weapons, so I think I’d go his way – but see how he does this week, and if he fails miserably against the Jets, you might end up going with Garrard or Fitzpatrick. Garrard has the better match-up, but Fitzy is more consistent. Never thought I’d be saying that…

BJ Frost asked, “I know your the expert so give me your thoughts. I have two RBs on bye this week. I have 5 RBs to choose from but can start only 3. Michael Bush, Beanie Wells, Christopher Ivory, Shonn Green, and Ricky Williams. Which three would you choose. Standard format, no points for receptions.”

if Beanie plays, I would start him – but right now he’s looking questionable at best. Ricky is averaging about 4.5 yards per carry this season, which is nice, but he hasn’t toted the rock more than 13 times since Week 1, and scored his first touchdown last week. Going up against Baltimore isn’t as scary as it used to be, but it’s no walk in the park, either. Ivory going up against Carolina is probably one of your best bets – he’s been solid in most games he’s gotten 10 carries or more, and he’s had at least one really good game. it’s either him or Julius Jones to get the carries in New Orleans, so you’d think Chris would be the guy. Pierre and Bush are both likely to sit out again. If Wells is out, I’d go with Bush, Ivory, and Shonn Greene. At the very least, the Jets could get on the right side of the Lions and turn into a run-heavy attack. Greene is a beast, if he’d only get 20 carries, or if LT didn’t look so damn good. Bush is a stud as well, and McFadden didn’t get dinged up last week, so he’s due this week… Even if Darren does stay healthy, Bush has shown he can get big yards rushing on minimal carries, and he’s a threat as a pass catcher down by the goal line. If Wells is healthy, shoot, I’d probably go with Ivory, Greene, and Wells.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 8 NFL Fantasy Football Advice & Tips

Alright, it’s been a while since I posted the emails (and answers) being sent to me, but I’ve been dealing out fantasy advice left and right. This is certainly my most busy season to date, and thus I hesitate, but here’s my email address if you have your fantasy or just regular football questions on queue. PAPAWEIMER50@Hotmail.com – Hook me up with your best questions, comments, and observations, and if your stuff is relevant I’ll bust it out on my weekly “Ask Papa Weimer” section. If it doesn’t get into the article, I still answer everything as quick as possible. Keep reading, the fun has just begun!

Bryson just off Broadway asks, “Lucky, this is my first time writing in about anything fantasy, but I need a tight end pick-up because Dallas Clark’s wristies are no longer healthy, and the guy I picked up last week (John Carlson) didn’t do dick. How would you rank the following TEs? Ben Watson, Brent Celek, Heath Miller, Marcedez Lewis…”

I think Celek has a nice role on the Eagles still, he hasn’t been great, but he’s shown (last year) that he’s a very good tight end. The targets are there, he’s got 43 so far this season and I think that’s more than any of the other guys… (actually not true, Ben Watson has 46) – still I just never know about the passing attack in Cleveland, who’s going to be leading it, and so on, so that’s why I originally ranked Watson just after Celek. Watson is a specimen though, I’ll never forget him chasing down Champ Bailey in the playoffs from clear across the field – that was awesome, and with no real receiving threat there, I’m going to move him ahead – he might be the surest thing for those QBs. Lewis has been a touchdown machine thus far, but his targets are fewer, but he is a great red-zone target. Still, it’s hard to trust him. He has more yards and touchdowns than Celek, though, so he’s still in this group. All these guys are really pretty even.

Heath Miller catches touchdowns, and maybe he’ll be relied on by Big Ben a little more now with Santonio Holmes gone, but I think Ben likes Mike Wallace just fine. And He just wont’ get as many looks as Celek or Watson, and I don’t think he has Lewis’s upside.

D-Burgos from work wrote, “I lost 97 to 95.. I benched Palmer (like my guardian Angel suggested…lol) who gave me 26 pts in my league’s format and Kolb gave me 5.. DAMN!!…lol – Ok… Week 8… I need a Flex, and I hear Reggie Bush is coming back, but how would you rank him amongst these guys? Bush / Chris Ivory / Beanie Wells / Michael Bush / Jonathan Stewart /Anthony Gonzalez or a Hot Lee Evans? Thanks Guardian Angel… lol”

Hey, can’t win them all…. I did say that I liked Palmer’s match-up a little more, but that he was a “risky” fantasy option. How was I to know that Kevin Kolb would come out looking like he did? The NFL, not always the most predictable of leagues. That probably goes well with the fact that Lucky was 5-9 with his NFL Picks this week… Ha. Like I said, can’t win them all!

Reggie Bush is a decent option, but I think I’d rank Beanie Wells ahead of him. Then Reggie. Then Michael Bush. Then Lee Evans. Then Jon Stewart. Then Anthony Gonzalez. I don’t think Chris Ivory will be worth owning past this week. With Reggie coming back, Ladel Betts still in the mix, and Pierre Thomas well on his way to recover, Ivory isn’t a guy that will have any value when you get done blinking. I rank Beanie #1 because I think he’s the only guy that could conceivably get 20 touches a game for the rest of the season. Reggie Bush has upside in terms of catches and big plays, but I think the consistency from Beanie will only go up from here. I still think he will be the focal point of that offense for a good portion of the season.

Sorry for the hairy advice last week, but at least my track record is still pretty good.  -Guardian Angel

Ben Wallace of West Texas writes, “I’m in a couple survivor leagues down here in the country of Texas and because I’ve stayed away from picking home-country teams, I’m in the final 2 and 3 of both situations. There’s some Texas-sized money on the line, and you’ve been helpful with your picks thus far. I can’t pick New Orleans, Indianapolis, Seattle, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or New England – Who would you go with this week?

Nice thinking, Ben – I like the clever thought process. If you’re ever in a homer fantasy league or survivor pool, or anything of the sort, you always do better eliminating those teams from your selection committee – that way, when those teams lose games they were favored to win, you get rid of a big chunk. I’m willing to bet you lost half your participants in Week 2 (Dallas’s loss at home to the Bears) and when you probably luckily steered clear of New Orleans’ losses to Arizona (Week 5) and Cleveland (Week 7). Good work. I’m always thinking survivor, it’s one of my favorite games, and like you I’m still in 2 (I lost one when I picked the 49ers in Week 1, stupid rookie mistake, never take a road team in Week 1 – or any week – if you can help it). That brings me to my top 5 for this week. You still have to make the decision, ultimately, so here’s how I’d rank them…

Kansas City at home against Buffalo: I think this is your best bet (despite the fact that I’m picking the Bills to cover a 9-point spread this weekend). You have a big time home field advantage on your side, as the Chiefs are always much better at home than they are on the road, and that’s evident throughout the team’s history. You have a strong rushing attack, maybe the best in the league, against one of the worst run defenses around. You have a Chiefs team that has learned how to win, where Buffalo, even playing at the top of their game, hasn’t collected a win all season. The odds are in your favor, too, the Chiefs are the biggest favorite Vegas has to offer this week. But they’re still the Chiefs – tough week – good luck!

Dallas Cowboys at home against Jacksonville: This might be scary because Dallas has also been good at losing (ala San Diego) despite better numbers than their opponents (on average, not last week). But I thin Jon Kitna’s presence will be good – the Defense will inevitably play harder without their offense at full health, and Kitna is still a solid QB option in the league. Jacksonville probably doesn’t have the ability to stop anything Dallas wants to do, and that’s why I think Felix Jones has his best day this season. Dallas will run more, and that’s good for them. Still, now you’re picking a home team, something you’ve done well to not do.

New York Jets at home against Green Bay: It’s tough, I think Green Bay could pull the upset here – but chances are the Jets beat the Packers up by running the ball, and you have to think New York is going to pull out a great game against the pass one of these weeks….

Washington on the road at Detroit: On the road picks are never a great thing to rely on, but it’s a tough week. The Redskins are better than the Lions, though I must admit, Detroit might be close to a toss up at home against the Skins. The only reason I would take Washington is because Matthew Stafford is coming back, and maybe, just maybe, he’s rusty. And if he starts out poorly, his confidence (and the team’s confidence as well) might struggle – because of how well the offense moved the ball under Shaun Hill. Tough one, hopefully you’re choosing from above.

Tennessee Titans on the road at San Diego: The Titans are playing tough, the Chargers are good at losing. I know it’s a dangerous pick, but shoot, this week is tough, what did you want me to do, pick the Rams at home? (they would have been option 6, gross)

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 5 2010 Fantasy Football Picks

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 5 2010 Fantasy Football Picks: Hey there, the emails that have been coming in are great, plenty of great questions and with every great question comes one of my answers – it being great or not comes later, but I’ve been having a lot of fun with the writer/reader interaction, and I hope you all are enjoying it as well. Keep writing in and asking me for advice, agree or disagree, sometimes it’s just nice to see somebody else’s side of the situation, gives you some perspective. I tried to pull out the questions and answers that are most relevant and will help you the most this Sunday, and here is what I came up with…

Da Bird asks, “Should I trade Roddy White and the Giants’ D to get Wes Welker and the Packers’ D?”

No. No sir. There’s some common thought going around that Wes Welker is going to blow up with Randy Moss out of his way. Wrong, Wes Welker is going to see what it’s like when defenses prepare to shut him down without slinging two players over to the other side of the field to pay attention to Randy Moss. Wes Welker is still good, I’d love to have him on my team, but Roddy White is a better option, one that I’d be very happy with. I just don’t think Welker gets better. The Giants D isn’t as good ad the Packers, but it’s just a D, never let that decide a trade for you.

Donny B from Chestnut Street says, “A plethora of questions coming your way here. 1- Who do you start at your flex this week, Barber or Michael Bush? 2- I’m still down on Witten, but should I give him up with Boldin to get Austin Collie and McCluster? 3- Vince Young or Shaun Hill this week, Mike Vick is out and I don’t have Kolb… Thanks for all your help!”

1) Michael Bush, no doubt about it. His match-up is solid, and he’s a great runner – look at his numbers, he gets the chances he produces good stuff. With McFadden playing at 50% or not playing at all, it’s Bush’s turn to take advantage of some #1 bacl targets.
2) Absolutely not. I’d rather have Boldin than Collie (despite point totals) and I’d rather have Witten than McCluster, easy. Bad trade. Witten will end up doing work in Dallas, it’s only been three games, give him 5 before you give him away.
3) I would also start Shaun Hill, if Stafford doesn’t come back. The Rams aren’t very good on the road – it should be a shoot out, they aren’t great in the secondary – I think Hill is a decent start, not only do they have CJ – but Jahvid Best out of the backfield is also a scary weapon, and those two TEs (Scheffler and Pettigrew) are both big sure handed targets as well. Vince’s best weapon is the guy he hands the football to, and he gets no fantasy numbers from handing off.

David from the Mall pleads, “Papa, should I go with Gradkowski or Bradford this week?  What is up in Seattle? Is Lynch going to be the man? What will happen to Forsett? Is Moss going to Minnesota? Is Tate in NE worth picking up or will it be somebody else?

I honestly have no idea to any of your questions accept that I would go with Bradford. Your guess is as good as mine with Lynch and Forsett, but I know that Lynch is a powerful back that catches the ball well, has good speed, and has put together some great all around seasons in a bad offense. If the Hawks were willing to meet the asking price that nobody else would, you think they’d give him a chance to be the man, but who knows. I have no idea about Moss and I’m not sure if it will make him more or less worth your roster spot. (WAIT!!! Now that Moss has moved to Minnesota, back to his NFL roots, is he in a better or worse situation? I think he’s in a situation where he’ll try harder, a place where he gets to play with a guy that he’s always wanted to play for, on a team that desperately wants a guy like him to add into the playbook – that seems like a better situation than his last gig, but a lot depends on Brett Favre.  As for the guy likely taking over for Randy in New England, I’ve always loved Tate, and he would seem to be ready to take full advantage of more targets- but hoody is an interesting guy.

Johnson-de-ville at work writes, “Looking for Survivor pool options for week 5. I’ve already gone through the Jets, Ravens, Colts, and Green Bay – can you give me a Top 3 for this weekend, not those teams?

My man, you bet. I love it if I can stay away from road teams in my survivor pool, but eventually you come across one that looks too good to be true, and with the teams you listed off the board, I think I’d have to rank the Saints #1. They are going on the road to play the Cardinals, but that turnover-feast offense will try to chew up the clock. I think Brees and his O has their biggest day of the season. I like the Bengals because I don’t think the Bucs can stop their run, and the Bengals should be very focused coming off a big loss last week. San Diego at Oakland is another one – as good as the Raiders can be defensively, the Chargers are just too good to bet against.

Fantasy Football Questions: Ask Papa Weimer Week 4

Fantasy Football Questions: Ask Papa Weimer Week 4: I’m a little late coming out of my route this week, but shoot, I just woke up – give an old far a break. With questions coming in with the urgent pitter-patter of a small child asking if we’re there yet, I’ve been thrusting my knowledge into the in-boxes of many a fan. It’s a good deal. If you want your question put into the article, or even better yet, want an answer to a dilemma you’re going through – toss a quick one this way, papaweimer50@hotmail.com – that’s where I live! But I’ve got people to do and things to see, so here’s this week’s Ask Papa section….

Stan out West says, “Papa W… Always need your pearls of wisdom to ensure that I stay on top!! What would you do with a start 3 WR situation that includes the likes of Wayne, Driver and Walter (Austin, Moore, Jacoby Jones on pine). With my tier 1 guy on the pine, should I stick with these guys?”

Well, I think I’d go with your same line-up. I’d maybe go with Lance Moore, (I like him with bush out and all), but tough to sit any of your guys (maybe Walter, but with Andre Johnson hurting, it’s tough to sit Walter, as he might become the favorite there). I like Flacco, but the Steelers match-up isn’t a good one, that’s for sure. Still, they aren’t going to run very well against Pittsburgh, so throwing might be there only option. Maybe Bradford against Seattle, but then you’re relying on a rookie QB – tough call there. I think I’d just go with the guys you have, I can’t think of a good enough reason to do otherwise.

Bernard from UMass simply asks, “Mark Clayton or Brandon Lloyd?”

That’s another tough one, both guys expected to do nothing and have been great. I’d probably go with Clayton just because there’s nobody he’s competing with to be that #1 target in St. Louis where Lloyd is competing with Gaffney, Demaryius Thomas, Eddie Royal. Plus, just one more reason to go with my guy, Clayton – Lloyd was hampered at practice a bit this week, plus they play the Colts – not much time to get deep passes off against them.

Big Dave from Minnesota writes, “Papa should I drop Celek and pick up Shockey or hang with Celek? Should I Start Schaub or Orton this week?”

I would hang with Celek. Though Shockey might have a little more value with Bush gone. Celek hasn’t been much a part of the passing game in Philly yet, but he’s still a very good receiver, and I would probably wait until it picks up for him a little – give him at least a couple more weeks. He was good enough last year to give him a few games to get going in 2010. As for question 2, I would start Schaub against any team over Orton against just about anybody maybe besides Detroit. Schaub plays Oakland this week, and while Nnamdi Asomugha is one of the best lock down guys in football, there’s still Owen Daniels, Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, and Steve Slaton to throw the ball to. He can’t guard them all. Orton plays Indy, not the easiest team to compile passing numbers on.

Pedey Writes, “What do you think about trading Eli for Henne. I have cutler so my backup won’t play too much.”

You know, i’m not crazy about Eli but I don’t know if I’d trade him. I’ll tell you what, though, i sure like Henne a lot more than Eli, but that’s just because Eli makes the dumbest faces in football (outside of his coach, of course). I think I would probably stick with Eli on a fantasy basis, but it’s close enough to do what you want. I don’t think you need to do it, but if you’re looking to improve the in-game facial expressions from your bench (where both Henne and Eli will be spending most of their time on your team) you might want to make that trade. Henne threw it all over the Patriots last season, totals similar to last week against the Jets. Against the Pats patchwork secondary, I ‘m not so sure he won’t have another big game. Eli will have his share of good ones, though. The choice is yours, I won’t be disappointed either way.

DB sends me this, “Getting trade offers all over the place, Wes Welker for Boldin, do I give up ‘Quan?”

I’m pretty sure that I would hold onto Boldin, but if you like Welker more, I think those two guys will be really similar in points by years’ end. If it’s a PPR, I would consider it more, but still – Welker has scored 1, 8, 3, and 4 touchdowns the last 4 years. But he has great consistency, something you rarely get from receivers. And he has 3 TDs already, but that’s part of my dilemma. See, you don’t pay for a horse because it’s acting like a bull for the last couple weeks. I mean, you don’t pay for a high catch, yardage receiver with few touchdowns for a guy that hasn’t had more than 8 catches or gotten more than 65 yards. You dig? Boldin’s almost at 100 yards per game in a really tough offense with a young improving QB and a great offensive line and he has 29 targets and 20 catches in 3 games. I think I’d ride him out, he’ll take you somewhere golden.

Ask Papa Weimer: NFL Week 3 Fantasy Advice

My fantasy teams are getting kicked around in the first couple weeks of the season, but hey, that’s okay, I’ve seen it happen before and I’ve come out alive. Back in 1989 I started the season 0-6 before climbing back like a damned mountain goat and taking the title from the unsuspecting Carl’s in my fantasy league. These days there are just more dinks to take players from, and I suspect you should. Here’s some advice going forward…

Vernon in Tennessee got a trade offer, “Ok I got another tough one. I have Frank Gore and I have just been offer a trade for him for MJD. I like them both but MJD isn’t looking to good and Gore looks great. What do you think?”

Don’t trade Gore, i love MJD, but I think Gore will be great all year. I don’t know how the Seahawks bundled up the big running back from San Francisco, but I don’t expect many teams to duplicate that task this season. Frank runs real hard, he’s going to catch at least 60 balls, and if he stays healthy he’s a lock for the Top 5 – the only way you get rid of a guy like that is if someone offers you AP or Chris Johnson in return. Listen, I am one of MJD’s biggest fans, always have been, but he is in a bad spot in Jacksonville. I keep waiting for them to get better, stronger, more efficient in the running game – but it just hasn’t happened. I don’t see them being ahead too often this year, and MJD hasn’t been healthy this season. It’s hard to get healthy when you are carrying a load every week. I think you’re in safe hands with Frank – and I’d stay there.

P-Witty in Bean Town says, Jimmy Claussen is now the guy in Carolina, so I’m thinking about trading away DeAngelo because I expect a roller coaster season with the rookie calling the shots, who should I target?

To answer your question of who to target, here are some guys I like that might have DeAngelo value in some circles… LeSean McCoy (think he’ll have a Brian Westbrook type season), Maurice Jones-Drew (I still like Drew, and think he should get it going soon, and he’s scored less than D-Lo, so someone might be freaking out), Pierre Thomas (a good guy to target right now before he has a full week as the lone-star running back in New Orleans) – those are three guys I like to add because either A- some owners don’t trust what they’ve done so far (McCoy) or B- I think they’ll be much better than they’ve been.

But to be honest, I think you should keep Williams and either trade him when his value is higher, or just ride him out. I actually think DeAngelo will be better with Claussen. Why? Because with Claussen, the stupid Panthers’ play caller, whomever he may be, will pull his head out of his ass and run the ball more. They did it last year when Moore came in to replace Delhomme, and they’ll do it this year, too. They’ve been passing the ball way too much when the game is close. I would probably wait to trade Williams – at least see what he does this week – even against a very tough Cincinnati defense. But I guess if you can get good value, he does go up against a couple tough defenses the next couple weeks – I’ve just always thought the Panthers could run on anyone if they would just call run plays. With Claussen, I think they will.

Dan in Indianapolis writes, “I’m thinking of trading Anquan Boldin and Brandon Jackson to get Roddy White, what do you think?”

I actually like Anquan Boldin – I think he will be solid all year, but if you’re worried about Flacco’s first couple weeks, I understand the trade. I just think Joe will figure it out soon, here, and light up the airways – remember, this team actaully threw a lot last year, and I think they’ll keep chucking it. I just don’t know if I’d give up Jackson (who is currently the starter on a good offense) and Boldin, for White, who has his ups and downs as well. But I’d rather have White than Boldin, if just by a little bit. So if all you’re looking for is an upgrade, I think you’re getting it.

Dave in Minnesota asks, “Will Demaryius Thomas, Earl Bennett, Tolbert, Josh Morgan, or Brandon Lloyd be worth picking up?”

I really like Aromoshadu, and I think last week’s benching was a bit of a heads up for him, more than a season long thing – so I would think he’ll be back in the swing of things soon in chicago, making Earl Bennett undesirable – but I could be wrong. LLoyd is okay, but he’s trumped by the upside of his young teammate. Thomas is my favorite of the bunch you mentioned. Josh Morgan is an interesting case, I’ve always liked the Virginia Tech guy (i think that’s where he’s from) and he could be good- but he’s going to be in a run first offense with at least two receiving options ahead of him (Vernon Davis, Crabtree) and three if you count Gore. I like Tolbert, always have, not sure how many looks he’ll get but he runs like everyone wishes Brandon Jacobs would run. As far as handcuffs go, he’s one I would actually own, because he’ll produce something every week and some weeks could be huge. I would rank D. Thomas as #1 of the guys you listed.

Billy from Philadelphia writes, “Hey Papa, last year you gave some good advice about survivor/suicide picks – I know it’s early, but better early than late for your advice, who are your top 3 picks this week? (That way I will surely have an option).”

New England at home against Buffalo is stealing candy from a baby. The Patriots are always a good bet coming off a loss, especially one where they were so useless in the 2nd half (like last week). But this is even better. While the Bills do have a nice secondary to match up with Moss, Welker, and the boys, there is no way they score more points than the Patriots. Free survivor pick of the week… New England.

Minnesota at home against the Lions – If you haven’t taken the Vikings yet, and you probably haven’t (because you’re still alive) I think they are a great bet to turn it around this week. Heck, even if they played like they have the last two weeks, I still think they walk away with a win against Detroit. And I expect them to play better. It’s ballsy, but hey, what are you if you’re not that?

Cincinnati on the road at Carolina – that’s my only road pick. I like to stay away from road games in survivor, if only because fewer road teams win, it’s just the way it is. But I can’t see how Carolina would win this one. They have a bad defense and Cincinnati has a good one. They have a rookie QB and a coach that hates running the ball when he should. If you’re in a bind, I like the Bengals to oust the Panthers.

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