Dynasty/Keeper Rankings TOP 112: 2009 Fantasy Football

April 2, 2009 by luckylester · 1 Comment 

Its quite unlike me to do a fantasy football rankings article toward the end of March, close enough to the draft that I should be focussed solely on the new cats entering the league, but unable to really include them because of the reality that their new uniforms have yet to be selected, and thus their bright future yet to be predicted. But this is going to be different.

There have been a number of emails asking me to do a fantasy article ranking players in a Dynasty League format. Dynasty leagues are those in which you keep all of the players that you draft, therefor taking ages, contracts, and their long term future more into account than in your yearly re-draft leagues or even leagues with a small number of keepers (1-3). Re-drafts in a dynasty format are often just rookie/free agent drafts and the veteren players only change teams if moved by their respective owner, either to the waiver wire or through a trade. This format has become more and more popular as it gives fantasy owners the feeling of team ownership, building from the ground up, often choosing to decide between winning now or building for later. It also gives losing teams something to look forward to, or the ability to trade crafty veterans for youth moving forward. It’s a whole new fantasy world, no doubt about it. You’re looking for solid production for at least 3 seasons - that allows you to continue to build through drafts and win now.

In many dynasty leagues that are starting this season, there will be a veteran draft in a snake format followed by a rookie draft in the opposite snake format. 1-12 and back for one, then 12-1 and back for the next. It evens out the board a bit, giving the teams drafting late a chance to make up for their lack of Top-5 power and take a blue-chip rookie going forward. But we’ll talk about rookies in the next few months, and closer to the start of the 2009 season. 

I am ranking these players based on a format that starts this lineup: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, D. That format gives wide receivers a little added value based on the fact that you start 3 of them compared to just 2 RBs. Also, the point system is a PPR (point per reception) format, which many leagues have moved to. That also gives WRs a little added bonus, the same goes for pass catching running backs. QBs get 6 points for touchdowns just like everyone else, and other than that, the scoring is very normal. Under this scoring format last season, the top 4 point scoring options were Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, and Kurt Warner - in that order. Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald were the only non-quarterbacks in the Top 8, and DeAngelo Williams finished with 6 more points than Matt Forte to take the running back title. That doesn’t mean QBs hold more value than RBs, same with WRs, but it does put points into perspective a little bit. 

I won’t be ranking D’s or K’s because I don’t care enough to do it. Also there’s some clutter in the middle a bit, that I argued with myself about a lot, but that’s the order I went with and I’ll own it. Throw in a comment (or email my uncle -papaweimer50@hotmail.com, i pretty much run his old pathetic life anyway - haha) and let me know what you think.  Can’t fit them all in 112 spots… 

Without further jib-jab and point scoring hog-wash, these are my 2009 dynasty fantasy rankings pre-draft. This is, more or less, how I think they’ll rate out over the next three seasons combined. 


  1. Maurice Jones-Drew (absolute stud, and will get more carries and touches this season, just like Josh said, this guy’s point per touch numbers are absurd) 
  2. Adrian Peterson (most people’s number one, should have his best year next season)
  3. Matt Forte (lots of touches for Matt, especially through the air, great feet for a big guy) 
  4. Chris Johnson (Some people thought he was too small, the Titans didn’t, they win) 
  5. Michael Turner (Justifiably some say he’s #1, his age and full load drop him a few spots in my Dynasty rankings) 
  6. Steven Jackson (still very young and very talented - not much help in St. Louis, but the talent is there) 
  7. Larry Fitzgerald (this guy is basically unstoppable)
  8. DeAngelo Williams (I’ve always liked his running style, and despite the great back-up behind him, he still ranks high)
  9. Andre Johnson (the only other non RB in my Top 10, AJ big brother’s DBs all year long) 
  10. Marion Barber (he’s not going to get picked this high in drafts, but a return to prominence for MBIII is almost a guarantee)
  11. Calvin Johnson (if he were on a better team, this guy would be fighting Fitz, still his per touch numbers are awesome and he’s only getting better as that terrible Lions team improves - if Cutler goes there, watch out) 
  12. Frank Gore (always one of my favorites, the center point of a run first offense, talent high, but injuries keep him out of the Top 10)
  13. Greg Jennings (young, strong, great young QB, the more touches he gets the better)
  14. Steve Slaton (some people see Slaton as a 3rd Down back, too small, but he’ll always be better than Fragile Reggie)
  15. Brandon Jacobs (Jacobs runs too hard to stay injury free, despite being the size of a D-end, but while he’s in he’s good for 100 yards and a TD - plus he’s young) 
  16. Reggie Bush (if I trusted Sean Payton to do the right thing, he’d be lower, still in a PPR league he’s a solid play 20th RB last season missing 6+ games - + meaning he missed most of a couple other games) 
  17. Roddy White (Roddy deserves more credit - he’s a stud - a go to guy for a great young QB on an improving team) 
  18. Anquan Boldin (a couple donkeys say Boldin isn’t a #1, haha, I hope he goes somewhere else and proves everyone wrong)
  19. Steve Smith (His age - and physicality - drops him a bit, but he’s that close to Roddy and ‘Quan - and as fun to watch as anyone in the league - look how good he makes Delhomme look sometimes) 
  20. Phillip Rivers (So what if he throws marshmallows, his team is turning pass happy, plays in a terrible division, and is just 27 years old - he’ll toss 40 TDs one of these years - and we’re the exact same age, to the day - it’s fate! ha) 
  21. Marques Colston (if I trusted Sean Payton to do the right thing, he’d be higher) 
  22. Kevin Smith (He won’t go this high, I promise, but invest now and you’ll reap the benefits of this talented back later) 
  23. Brandon Marshall (If it weren’t for his ability to “find himself in bad situations” - hide and seek champ - he’d rank higher) 
  24. Clinton Portis (Clinton will be 28 in September, going on 32 - I love the guy’s fight, but that drops the talented back into the 20s) 
  25. Drew Brees (This guy plays tricks on defenses - the only problem is that I don’t know how much longer that idiot running this team will have a head coaching job, and another guy would surely run a more conservative and smarter offense) 
  26. Ryan Grant (He may have struggled a bit last season, but he’s young and this offense will get better and rely on him more heavily next season) 
  27. Joseph Addai (I can’t quite give up on Addai yet, but he’s never really impressed me as a runner. He’s thrown up some solid stat lines, but aside from pure numbers he doesn’t impress me as much as he does others) 
  28. Peyton Manning (Elder Manning is 33, but still has a handful of good years left in him - but he’ll be 36 in 3 years, and you never know how age, and a new coach, will change a guy) 
  29. Ronnie Brown (Ronnie will go under the radar in drafts, and this might even be a little low for one of the best all around backs in the league) 
  30. Tony Romo (I might take Romo over Manning, but I wonder the impact of losing TO and how it will effect Tony, still a top flight QB though, and young)
  31. Tom Brady (Nobody does it like Tom - but his knee still has questions, and this team can’t be young forever) 
  32. Reggie Wayne (he’s actually getting up there in age a bit, 31 or so, he’ll have a couple real good years, then start to die off, which is why he falls a bit now) 
  33. Dwayne Bowe (Dwayne Bowe, watch Anquan Boldin films, that’s going to be you in a year or two - Bowe could break into the Top 10 this year) 
  34. Aaron Rodgers (Explosive young arm with a great receiving corps and an improving offense - only his second year - could be great) 
  35. Darren McFadden (I don’t care what people say, this is probably too low - still, I can’t put a Raider higher than Bo Jackson’s old number - Bo knows Al Davis is a team killing psycho path!) 
  36. Eddie Royal (this looks like a reach now, but he’s like Wes Welker with elite speed and great maneuverability) 
  37. Matt Ryan (this may be a reach, but I’m ranking for the next 3 years, and I’d love to have Matty Ice when he matures)
  38. Randy Moss (Randy’s old, but still basically unguardable with Tom Brady hucking footballs - only a couple real good years left though which drops him a bit) 
  39. Marshawn Lynch (Obviously keep an eye on his situation, the kid will be suspended, and has been a question mark since draft day - on the football field he’s a great RB option) 
  40. Braylon Edwards (very good player when he’s on, yet quite drop-happy and not as physical as his body - should be much better than he was last season, and still very young - doesn’t have great speed though) 
  41. Derrick Ward (Could be an interesting time share in Tampa, but they brought Ward in to be the guy, and though he’s never been a beacon of health, he’s a very physical runner with good vision, and this O-line is underrated - he’s a young 29 though) 
  42. Jonathan Stewart (Might seem ridiculous, but I’d rather have JS than Westbrook or LT, and this guy’s a backup) 
  43. Brian Westbrook (This is where age shows it’s ugly face a bit, Westy might be a Top 5 guy this coming season but he’ll be 30 during this year and has always had health issues - still a great player though, just don’t overbid in Dynasty Leagues) 
  44. LaDainian Tomlinson (I think LT has at least one really good season left in him, remember Michael Turner just had an unreal season while LT really struggled - and by the way, they were only 7 fantasy point apart - LT still has it, for at least another year)
  45. Vincent Jackson (Now’s the time, before Phillip uses Jackson as his number one for a full season) 
  46. Jason Witten (I don’t think much of TEs, but Witten is the #1 in Dallas, don’t be confused by Jerry telling you it’s Roy Williams - oh, and Witten is a flat out stud)
  47. TJ Houshmanzadeh (it’s unbelievable how solid his numbers were last year despite being forked in one of the worst offenses in football - he’s perfect for the Seahawks and unless he’s cursed with injuries like all Hawks’ receivers, he should be solid - but he’s 32 this season - which drops him a bit) 
  48. Carson Palmer (remember when he was in the Peyton, Tom, and Drew draft area? Well, he’ll get back there - this guy has all the tools - probably a good time to invest) 
  49. Wes Welker (he might not be flashy, but he’s a PPR dynamo and very good at what he does, not PPR, not as good) 
  50. Matt Cassel (risky? maybe - but I’ll risk it on a leader I really like on a team with talent to catch passes and a new offensive genius as his head coach - not as risky as it may sound as I agree with McDaniels, I’d rather have Cassel than Cutler) 
  51. Jay Cutler (Jay might have been higher before he pouted his way out of Denver, I’m just not impressed with grown men acting like entitled little bitches, what can I say - still, he’s a great talent with a rocket arm) 
  52. Willis McGahee (sometimes sportswriters take chances, I’m taking one on a guy I don’t like all that much, I’m saying Willis turns it around and finishes well above this ranking - still, the risk brings him down a bit)
  53. Matt Schaub (this is the season for Matt to lead his team to the playoffs and stay injury free, just that alone will put him in the Top 10 QBs) 
  54. Antonio Gates (Gates is moving fast toward 30, and his hoops background is rearing it’s ugly head - for those of you in fantasy basketball, you know exactly what I mean - still, he’s a touchdown machine and Rivers knows it) 
  55. Ben Roethlisberger (Big Ben will be better this season, he just needs to stay healthier, and improved line will help that)
  56. DeSean Jackson (I like him a lot, and think he’ll be a very good one in Philly, despite his tiny frame)  
  57. Felix Jones (something tells me he’ll get used more this season, now might be a good time to get this speedy young runner) 
  58. Santonio Holmes (interesting cat, but very, very good - should see more balls, but don’t overpay for Super Bowl glory)
  59. Donovan McNabb (Right above TO, planned that - McNabb will be an old 33 this season, and with no sure contract situation and last years’ struggles, I can’t guarantee anything form Donovan, except that he’s one of the best QBs in the league on a pretty damn good football team) 
  60. Terrell Owens (A one year contract interests me always, but he’ll likely never get a longer one, still - one of the best WRs playing every single season for next year’s contract - I’ll take a chance on him, even in Buffalo - he’s older, no doubt, but in pretty good shape anyway) 
  61. Lee Evans (Despite Edwards’ struggles, I still think he’ll be solid - add TO as a guy to take some pressure off Evans and I think Lee has a nice year - even if TO leaves next season, Evans will still be an elite talent) 
  62. Eli Manning (I hate to do it, but I had to include Pouty-face in here somewhere, it’s personal, so he might be better than this)  
  63. Santana Moss (In the 2nd season of Zorn’s system, this whole offense will move more efficiently, and Moss will benefit - turns 30 this year, but WRs should go worry free until 33 or so) 
  64. Roy Williams (he’s young, has had a couple really good seasons, is the #1 in Dallas on a solid offensive team with a very good young quarterback - hell, this is too low - but there’s obviously some risk here, a guy with more ballsy would put him at 44) 
  65. Antonio Bryant (I just can’t be sure about Bryant - what a great finish, scoring more points over the last 10 games than any receiver in football, that has to be worth something - he’s this far down because, well, he was out of football the year before last, can’t ignore that really) 
  66. Bernard Berrian (steal on draft day I think - probably should rank him a little higher, I actually like Sage throwing him the ball) 
  67. Anthony Gonzalez (something tells me that Anthony will see a lot of balls over the next 3 years, and very well could rate out higher than this) 
  68. Donnie Avery (there’s no doubt in my mind that this kid will be the #1 in St. Louis next season, great upside there, but this team should struggle for a couple years at least - still, better to risk on upside) 
  69. Chad Ocho-Cinco (you’ll be able to get him cheap, he’s getting older, he says one thing and does another and he changed his name to a fake spanish number - all that being said, he’s still #85 and gets his QB back this season) 
  70. Jericho Cotchery (do I like Cotchery? you bet - do I like Kellen Clemmens? not a chance - but Cotchery is still a nice receiver and should average 80 grabs over the next 3 years, so this might be low for him - not great upside here though) 
  71. Joe Flacco (Maybe he should go higher than this, his future is bright, that’s for sure. Still, Mason is aging and I’m not sure there’s another great offensive player on that roster) 
  72. David Garrard (I still don’t see any receiving help for this poor guy, but his O-line should be way better this season - and despite what people think, he was pretty decent as a starting option last year - 12th overall) 
  73. Rashard Mendenhall (he’ll go really late in drafts this year, what a time to get him, I still think he’s right there - talentwise - with anybody else from last year’s super talented class, this is too low, but he’s still risky)
  74. Domenik Hixon (he might not be a #1, and I doubt the Giants will let that happen, but I like this kid as a solid HR threat #2 and I expect him to play a nice roll in NY over the next couple years - I like him more than the other WRs on that roster) 
  75. Matt Hasselbeck (how many years does Matty have left? his back might have a better answer than me - but he’ll be solid as long as he’s still around - the Hawks offense will be much improved this season) 
  76. Deion Branch (good player, injury troubles have held him back, and he’s not a #1, but now he doesn’t have to be, and he’s still young enough to be good in the Hawks passing attack) 
  77. Pierre Thomas (if I trusted Sean Payton, he’d be a heck of a lot higher - if he ever moves teams, he shoots way up the chart) 
  78. Leon Washington (he’s talented enough to take a chance, but I don’t know if his coaches will give him the #1 job, and Thomas Jones was successful last season - still, this young offensive line is talented and getting better, and Washington has at least as much upside as Darren Sproles)
  79. Fred Jackson (Fred is a very good player that will probably get lots of time with Marshawn doing dumb things, a little risk could go along way with this kid) 
  80. Thomas Jones (Yeah, I ranked his back-up ahead of him, so what - Jones is aging and while I still like him, he’s not really impressing the new staff with his hold-out threats) 
  81. Tony Gonzalez (he may have a couple more years, but he’s in as good a shape as most 25 year olds, and even if he plays just 2 more he’ll rank out higher than most 3 year TEs)
  82. Dallas Clark (he’ll be one of Peyton’s top targets with Marvin gone, and he’s a pretty sure thing to be in the Top 5 over the next few years) 
  83. Kellen Winslow (I like him better than Dallas Clark, but it’s very close, and Dallas has the QB advantage and health on his side, so Kellen moves behind him)
  84. Lance Moore (if I trusted Sean Payton, Lance wouldn’t be this high) 
  85. Hines Ward (all he does is do the same good things year after year after year, consistently from game to game, and he’ll always be underrated - even though he’s 33 and plays a more physical football than most receivers, aging him faster perhaps, still, this is probably too low for a sure thing)
  86. Steve Breaston (he’ll be a #2 somewhere, if not in Arizona next season, then sometime soon down the line, he’s good enough to hold on to) 
  87. Ted Ginn Jr. (could be a very good WR, he showed flashes last season, but there’s still enough question to keep him behind a lot of receivers) 
  88. Chris Cooley (what a character - Cooley is a top notch receiver that should be even better in his 2nd season in this system)
  89. Sage Rosenfels (I think he’ll be good - that’s right, will probably draft him in more than a few leagues as my back-up - lots of risk here, but lots of upside too) 
  90. John Carlson (His rookie year was a big success, he blocks well so he’ll always be on the field which makes him a solid red-zone touchdown target) 
  91. Dustin Keller (probably a better receiver than Carlson, but not as physical and not as good of a QB, still this kid’s upside has a higher ceiling than JC’s) 
  92. Trent Edwards (It’s tough to say, but I like Trent and think his sophomore slump will be exactly that - something you look back at and say, that was an aberration and this kid is going to be good - still, anybody in charge of Buff’s offense has risk) 
  93. Chris Chambers (I wonder what happend last season - Chris played in every game and had just 33 grabs for 462 yards and 5 scores - I’m willing to bet he improves those numbers next season, he’s only 31 this season, but just incase, he’s not ranked high enough to get a bunch of crap for) 
  94. Brady Quinn (here’s to hoping he goes to Denver and succeeds - still, I’ve never been sold on Brady) 
  95. Mark Clayton (the former first round pick had a nice thing going with Flacco, his second 7 games were worth 31 fantasy points - his last 9 were good for 110) 
  96. Torry Holt (we’ll see where he signs, he’s aging for sure, but I’m not ready to believe he’s done, he’s always open) 
  97. Owen Daniels (not much not to like about this kid, except that he’s a TE - still, he’s very consistent which is rare for TEs not named Gonzo, Witten, Clark, and Gates) 
  98. Donald Driver (old but effective, but for how long? not three years is my answer)
  99. Derrick Mason (old but effective, but for how long? not three years is my answer) 
  100. Jason Campbell (probably shouldn’t be this low, but after the first 12-15 QBs, what can you do, i wouldn’t mind having him to be a back-up on my squad over the next few seasons) 
  101. Michael Clayton (maybe this is nuts, but with Gruden gone I think Clayton’s not so “puckered up” as he was over the last few years, and the kid has enough talent to succeed) 
  102. Josh Morgan (talented enough to do it, offensive passing attack a question in San Fran, still, I like this kid a lot) 
  103. Kevin Walter (effective, but a white wide receiver nonetheless, sorry if I can’t believe) 
  104. Miles Austin (I have to think he’ll get enough looks to be fantasy worthy, and his upside is greater than Patrick Crayton’s) 
  105. James Jones (I’ve always liked him a ton, he fell behind a little bit last season, but he’ll be a nice #2 in this league some time over the next 3 seasons) 
  106. Jeremy Shockey (gotta wonder about this werid-o, never been a fan, but if he stays healthy, and out of the dog house, he’s talented enough) 
  107. Zach Miller (good young red zone target, if the Raiders ever get there he’ll be a solid option) 
  108. Laurence Maroney (worth a pick late in dynasty leagues, I have always loved his talent but he can’t stay on the field and his HC isn’t a huge fan) 
  109. Chad Pennington (he needed to go on the list, I just don’t think he has more than one season as a starter) 
  110. JaMarcus Russell (you have to feel bad for a kid that gets stuck in Oakland - I believe JaMarcus!)
  111. Plaxico Burress (I think Plax was/is stupid - no doubt about that - however, mando-mins are the stupidest thing ever and should be abolished - he’s a super talented cat, but prison time is on the horizon which means his career could be shut down)
  112. Michael Vick (Yeah, he’s on the list, he’s an athletic freak and he did his time - get the hell over it - I’m a dog lover and after a guy spends time in jail for what he did, has to start his life and career over, I’m going to wish him the best)
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Fantasy Football: Tiered Quarterback Rankings

August 12, 2008 by luckylester · 1 Comment 

Here are my *TOP 30 Quarterbacks. I’m not dancing around at all in these ones, I’m considering all factors and this is how I would tier my rankings of quarterbacks while getting ready for a draft. I explained my rankings a bit in each tier, and if you keep your rankings tiered like this, it should really help you determine value on draft day. Good luck!

I

  1. Tom Brady

You betcha – I’m not a guy thinking Tom is going to toss 50 TDs again this season, but he will get over 30. He’s the best quarterback in the league and he has the most dangerous wide receiver and a coach that really knows how to make things happen. Tom will surely be the 1st QB selected on draft day, and that’s respectable.

II

  1. Tony Romo
  2. Drew Brees
  3. Peyton Manning

I think Peyton Manning is a great quarterback - one of the best ever - but I’m a little scared of him this season. I had a hockey playing buddy from Finland that was never the same after a staff infection decided to eat at his knee. IVs and the inability to move the same bogged him down. I’m not saying Manning doesn’t have the best medical staff in the world or that he won’t be healthy by go time, but it might take him a little longer than expected to get it all back, that confidence and all. He’s just not as safe as he used to be, still a tier 2 guy though. Tony Romo is a stud with all the swag a quarterback needs to be successful. He really makes things happen. He has TO, Marion Barber, Jason Witten, and a little trick up his sleeve by the name of Felix Jones. Believe in him as the #2 QB overall. Drew Brees could surpass Peyton this year, in fact, I like it to happen. The Saints will still be throwing all the time and Brees is very accurate. With Shockey and Meachem, I think this passing attack got a lot better. Brees is the in Tier 2.

III

  1. Carson Palmer
  2. Donovan McNabb
  3. Ben Roethlisberger
  4. Matt Hasselbeck

Yes, believe it or not, I like Carson to rebound. He has talked about how he had started to play with bad habits and that he just started over in the off-season and worked his tail off. I like that. He has as much talent as any signal caller in the league and he still has TJ and Chad to toss the rock to. Expect a 30 TD year from the Bengal leader. McNabb is great - when he plays. He’s back to 100% and I like the Eagles to make some noise and maybe steal a little thunder from last years’ Super Bowl Champs and the Division winning Cowboys. Look for Donovan to have a great season, even without a #1 receiver. Big Ben had a great touchdown throwing season in ‘07, and while I don’t think the passing attack will be quite as good in ‘08, I still expect him to be a tier 3 guy. He has a very good arm, nice receiving options, and has matured quite a bit. Matt Hasselbeck will go underrated and under-appreciated for yet another season. Matt is one heck of a guy and a very good quarterback for a pass-happy team. Burleson will impress this year, behind the arm of Matt.

IV

  1. Jay Cutler
  2. Derek Anderson

I feel the same way about Jay Cutler that I felt about Carson Palmer before the Bengal had his breakout season. Marshall is gone for 2-3 games, but I don’t think that should rob Jay of many fantasy points. Cutler has the cannon, and the confidence to be a Top 5 guy in this league. Just you watch. Derek Anderson is still a talented kid with a nice arm, but I don’t think he duplicates last years’ numbers. Maybe I’m not giving him enough credit

V

  1. Brett Favre
  2. David Garrard
  3. Aaron Rodgers
  4. Jake Delhomme
  5. Phillip Rivers
  6. Marc Bulger
  7. Vince Young
  8. Matt Schaub
  9. Eli Manning
  10. Jon Kitna

Brett Favre, in a new system, on a new team, with new receivers, leading a group that didn’t win more than a handful of games last season - but yes, I still think he’s a starting fantasy options in a seasonal league. Coles and Cotchery are very good receivers - heck, look what they did with a QB that couldn’t stretch the field. Alan Faneca is a very good guard - one of the best in the league, and despite last years’ rushing woes, this offensive line in New York is young and talented. Look for Brett to be up to his old tricks. David Garrard was brilliant when he played last season - almost never throwing interceptions and guiding his team up and down the field with a balanced attack. He has some receiver woes, sure, but as a runner and a passer this guy will put up numbers week in and week out. Rodgers will be good. Mark my words - this guy is a talented passer with a feel for the game. He has a cannon arm and a strong work ethic, and Big Mike knows what he’s doing. This kid has too talented of a receiving corps and rushing attack to stumble. Jake Delhomme will be good if he stays on the field. He’ll probably rank out much higher than this if he plays 16 games this season. The Panthers (now that everyone is ignoring them) are actually a playoff sleeper this season. Jake and Steve Smith (after 1st two games) will run the show in Carolina. Phillip Rivers sure doesn’t get any credit. He’s supposedly looking good in camp, though I would never say he looks good. Despite throwing marshmallows, he is surprisingly successful. He grew up in the playoffs and I think he has a big year in ‘08. Marc Bulger has so much upside with a good offense and a great receiver, but I’m not ready to say he’s going to be a Top 10 guy. He is a low risk high reward guy, and you have to love that. Vince Young has slipped right off the cliff of fantasy rankings, but don’t ignore him - he’ll be better this season. I like having Vince as a #2 in leagues where QBs get 4 points per passing TD - he’ll make up a lot of ground in those leagues. I still think he’s a #2 to starter in every league. Matt Schaub has a lot of upside and I’ve always liked him. I think he’ll be another low risk high reward guy. Bulger, Young, and Schaub - all solid options. Eli Manning will be picked much higher than this, so this is me suggesting you pass on the Super Bowl MVP - he’s erratic and the Giants will likely struggle in ‘08. Jon Kitna is a solid passer, but I wouldn’t rely on him as a starter. His days of 350 passing yards are likely over, but his 20+ INT days are probably done too. He’ll be decent.

VI

  1. Matt Leinart
  2. Jason Campbell
  3. Jeff Garcia
  4. Tarvaris Jackson
  5. JaMarcus Russell

Matt Leinart has a better quarterback (Warner) behind him. HOwever, Matt still has a lot of talent and has two great receivers to get the ball to. I wouldn’t like to rely on him, but you could do worse. He’s a decent touch passer but he holds onto the ball too long. Jason Campbell has always been a favorite of mine, and I’ll probably try to get him as a #3 or even a #2 if I wait too long to draft old QB number two. He looked very good in the first pre-season game he played. I like Zorn as a groomer of young QB talent. Santana Moss is explosive and Chris Cooley is a very good receiving TE. Portis is a stud. Garcia does all the little things well and if he doesn’t get destroyed and injured, he’ll be a stable player. Remember, he plays 6 games a year against the Falcons, Saints, and Panthers… Not really defensive super teams. Tarvaris Jackson is getting a little too much hype. Sure, he’s on a good team where defenses stack the line, but how has that worked for his fantasy career thus far? Will he be better? Probably, but I don’t know if he’s a fantasy back-up even. JaMarcus Russell throws one of the prettiest balls I’ve ever seen and he can make any throw in the game. His arm is ridiculous. I expect lots of bumps from his as a starter, but at some point this season, he might be ready to be a fantasy factory.

VII

  1. Kurt Warner
  2. Trent Edwards
  3. Chad Pennington
  4. Brodie Croyle
  5. Matt Ryan

Kurt Warner should be starting somewhere, probably Arizona. Right now, he’s just going to be a back-up, but is still a better fantasy option than a few starters in the league. You can get a great maybe player at the end of the draft and he could become a top option starter later in the season. That’s a good risk to take. I like Trent Edwards but I don’t know if he’s mature enough to take the right risks to be a fantasy contributer. I think he’s a good quarterback, and probably the right guy to move Buffalo in a more positive direction, but he’s a low tier back-up. Chad Pennington still can’t throw farther or harder than I can, and I’m and old offensive lineman. I like his accuracy and he seems like one heck of a guy. So, on the nice-guy-o-meter he’s a decent pick. Brodie Croyle isn’t consistent enough to be a fantasy option, but he’s still a starting option that can be picked up for bye weeks or if he slips and figures it out. Dwayne Bowe, Larry Johnson, and Tony Gonzalez are 3 solid offensive weapons at his disposal. Matt Ryan is a rookie quarterback - and that doesn’t usually bode well for fantasy success. However, the Falcons aren’t as bad offensively as many think and Ryan has a nice arm and solid confidence. Can he be counted on? Don’t get crazy, but keep him on the radar.

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Fantasy Football: Tiered Receiver Rankings

August 12, 2008 by luckylester · 1 Comment 

Here are my *TOP 60 Wide Receivers. Naturally, I’m not giving you a cookie cutter rankings list, but I do have some reasoning behind the sanity, and if it’s good enough for the girl you go with, it should do for you too. Enjoy my tiered rankings. I’ve written a few words about the first 5 tiers – the rest are just listed without all the verbiage.

I

  1. Randy Moss
  2. Terrell Owens

Yes – despite the hype and the excitement of youth, these two touchdown driven pass catching personalities are bound to be at the top come December. Randy and Owens are certainly in a league of their own. Reggie Wayne is close and Fitzgerald might be getting there, but right now there are two guys in the 1st tier. Randy is definitely #1, and while I don’t expect a repeat of last years’ numbers, I still believe him to be the best receiving option in the game.

II

  1. Reggie Wayne
  2. Chad Johnson
  3. Larry Fitzgerald
  4. Marques Colston
  5. Braylon Edwards
  6. Steve Smith
  7. Andre Johnson
  8. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
  9. Torry Holt

This is a tier in which all receivers have been absolute studs before, and should be studs again. Last season Reggie, Larry Fitz, T.J., Edwards, Chad Johnson, and Colston all finished within 20 points of each other, and ranked between 2nd and 9th overall amongst WRs in point per reception leagues. Braylon really broke out in 2007, and while there’s a chance he’s just a one-year wonder, I’ll take my chances on the super-athletic touchdown scoring monster of a receiver. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, after a couple of years falling just short of 1000 yards, has back to back 1000+ campaigns and is coming off his best season yet. Marques Colston has two very successful years under his belt, and while many thought he struggled to start the ’07 season, Colston came on fast and managed 98 catches for 1200 yards and 11 scores. He’s a beast. This is his 3rd year in the league and you all know what that means. Chad Johnson is the least consistent of these guys, on a game to game basis, but he is dynamite consistent on a year to year basis. 87+ catches, 1270+ yards, and 7+ TD’s in 5 straight seasons. He is getting a bad rap this year, but that just means he’s a better value for you. Torry Holt is the only one in this group that is quite possibly over the hill, but watch him play, he’s always wide open. Plus, the Rams offense has to be better this season, and he’ll be a large part of that upgrade. Steve Smith is the most dynamic of this group, but he’s missing 2 games to start the season and he got busted up with a concussion in pre-season game 1. Still, with Delhomme tossing the ball and a nice running game building in Carolina, Steve Smith should be one of the best receivers in the game. Get him at a nice value and bring in the money. Anybody in this field is good, so don’t break your bank to grab your favorite of the bunch – there’s a lot of depth at the top of the receiver rankings. As for Andre Johnson, well what can I say except that I dig this cat. He’s got all the ability to be one of the game’s best. He’s fast and he’s a beast. However, he might be prone to injuries because he’s so much of a physical freak. Still, in 10 games alone he’s probably worth a pick in this tier. If he’s healthy, you hit the jackpot!

III

  1. Anquan Boldin
  2. Roy Williams
  3. Wes Welker
  4. Brandon Marshall
  5. Plaxico Burress
  6. Calvin Johnson
  7. Santonio Holmes
  8. Greg Jennings

Boldin is a beast, and while he has a bit of Donovan McNabb disease (great production when he plays, but he isn’t always playing) he’s still a nice grab. He’s a quarterback’s best friend because he’s tough and holds onto the ball in the middle. Roy Williams, believe it or not, was on pace to nearly match his impressive 2006 numbers before he got knocked out in the teams 12th game of the season. He won’t lose touches with Martz gone, McDonald will, Furrey will, Calving and Roy won’t. I expect big things from him. Wes Welker was given a huge contract by the Patriots before any of this amazing season stuff. That means they knew what they were getting. Many don’t expect a repeat from Welker. Me neither… I expect better numbers this season. Marshall is a little immature and hot-headed, is that weird? Not for receivers. He’s still a stud. He’ll be gone for what looks like 2 games, but I expect great things from Cutler this year, and Marshall will be a huge part of that. Plaxico – I don’t know, he’ll probably get hurt or ride out his ankle problems. I don’t like Giants this season, but Plax is a touchdown machine. He’s big, fast, and has good hands. He’ll produce if healthy. I love Calvin Johnson, and would put him higher, but he hasn’t done much to deserve a better ranking. Still, his upside is amazing, and I still say he’s the best receiving prospect ever. A lot of people are sky high on Holmes, but I still think he’s too streaky. I think the Steelers will run a lot more this year, and the ball will spread out a little more. Holmes is a nice pick, and he fits in this tier, but those that have him in the Top 10 are ranking him too high. Greg Jennings is a touchdown scoring machine. With Favre out of GB, I still expect big things from this tough runner. His hands are soft and he can really take some contact and stay on his feet. I like him to match last years’ numbers.

IV

  1. Jericho Cotchery
  2. Roddy White
  3. Dwayne Bowe
  4. Marvin Harrison
  5. Lee Evans
  6. Laveranues Coles
  7. Santana Moss
  8. Donald Driver
  9. Bernard Berrian
  10. Chris Chambers
  11. Nate Burleson

Cotchery will have a very nice season with Brett throwing him the ball. Jericho catches everything thrown his way, and it’ll be nice for him to get some down field chances. I think he’ll become Brett’s favorite target. Roddy White was not a fluke. I watch him play and I see a big strong target with all the speed you need. The Falcons will be better and White won’t disappoint. Bowe is a great young receiver, but I can’t rank him much higher than this in that KC offense with question marks at quarterback. Still, he’ll be a nice starting option. Marvin Harrison could be back to his old self, in which case he’ll be a steal. Still, Manning is fighting knee troubles and Wayne is the man in Indy. I wouldn’t mind getting a hold of Marvin, but only at the right price. Lee Evans has as much talent as anyone. He can turn any play into a touchdown, and you have to like that. Still, Trent Edwards is just a 2nd year guy, and that Buffalo offense is young. He’ll be better this season than he was last, but I don’t know if he’ll meet last year’s hype. I love Coles. If him and Brett can get on the right page, he’ll do big things. He’s a do everything receiver. I look for him to have a nice season. Santana Moss is very explosive. Look at his history and see what he can do in a season. I think Jason Campbell will be improved and Moss will help him take that next step. Drive is always solid and he looks tough right off the bat. He never gets credit, but I bet his production stays very similar to last seasons. I originally though that Berrian would struggle in Minnesota. Then I realized that he came from Chicago. Can’t get much worse than that passing offense. If Jackson figures it out, Berrian will put up his best numbers ever. If not, I stil think he gets close to last year’s figures. Chris Chambers will do solid things in San Diego. I don’t know if he’ll ever be a super-star, in fact I just don’t see it. He’s had some nice half-years. I think he’ll be more consistent this season, but SD isn’t the place for receivers to go off. Nate Burleson might be the steal of this group. He’ll be what looks like the surefire #1 option in Seattle, and he’s got touchdown making ability. He’ll be picked behind almost every single guy in this tier, and some from the next tier down, but I like his upside a lot.

V

  1. Anthony Gonzalez
  2. Kevin Curtis
  3. Joey Galloway
  4. Derrick Mason
  5. Hines Ward
  6. Reggie Brown
  7. D.J. Hackett
  8. Deion Branch
  9. Javon Walker
  10. Devin Hester

I love Anthony Gonzalez as a player, but his value could very well depend on Marvin’s comeback. If Harrison has troubles, Gonzo is a steal. If not, I still think you get a guy that should produce like Brandon Stokely did as the #3 receiver in Indy a few years ago. Over 1000 yards and 6 touchdowns – you bet. Kevin Curtis has one great week and that week terribly inflated his numbers. Still, I think he’s a solid receiver. I don’t think you’ll ever see an 80 catch 1200 yard 10 TD season from this kid, but he’s a nice option if McNabb and company get #1 production from an unknown receiving source this season. I don’t think Curtis plays as well as the scariest option. Joey Galloway is still one of the fastest receivers in the game, and Jeff Garcia is a solid quarterback. If both stay healthy, Galloway will outperform this ranking. I don’t think they’ll both stay healthy all season. Derrick Mason is another old guy that was caught outperforming his expectations last season. There are too many quarterback questions in Baltimore for him to repeat last seasons’ surprises, right? I don’t know, he’s a safe bet to produce so he fits in this tier. Hines Ward had a down year, dealt with injuries, and became a 2nd option to Santonio Holmes. Still, he’s a very good player that, if healthy, will continue to produce at a high level. He’ll be underrated on draft day. Reggie Brown had a tough season in Philly last year, but I still like his upside. You can get him late and he might just be the #1 Philly wanted him to be. Hackett has as much talent as anyone on this list. He can never stay healthy, but if he does, he’ll do good things in Carolina. This kid can really run and catch the ball. Deion Branch would be higher if he was a sure thing to be healthy by the get-go. Right now, he’s way ahead of schedule on his ACL, but that often worries me. He’s a good player though, consistently scoring fantasy points. Javon Walker could be a great pick, but, like everyone else, I’m worried about this guy. Proceed with caution, I don’t know if we’ll ever see the Walker that played great in Green Bay. Devin Hester gets the last spot in this tier, but he’s as much of a question mark as any. He may have more upside as well. He’s a risk, sure, but Chicago is putting him down as a starting WR, and if he can get 60-70 touches this year, I think 10-12 touchdowns could be obtained. That would make him a steal!

VI

  1. Reggie Williams
  2. Bryant Johnson
  3. Isaac Bruce
  4. Vincent Jackson
  5. Bobby Engram
  6. Justin Gage
  7. Patrick Crayton

VII

  1. Derek Hagan
  2. Steve Smith (NYG)
  3. Eddie Royal
  4. Sidney Rice
  5. James Hardy
  6. Ronald Curry
  7. Donte Stallworth
  8. Drew Bennett
  9. Jabar Gaffney

VIII

  1. Ted Ginn Jr.
  2. Devery Henderson
  3. Mushin Muhammad
  4. James Jones
  5. Kevin Walter
  6. Jacoby Jones
  7. Robert Meachem
  8. Mark Clayton
  9. Davard Darling
  10. Antwan Randel El
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Fantasy Football: Tiered Running Back Rankings

August 4, 2008 by luckylester · 1 Comment 

Here are my *TOP 35 Running Back Rankings. I’ve tiered them out for you, and yes, this list could look a little different from the ones you’ve been reading. However, I am a fantasy genius so follow wisely. I’ve written a little about each tier so enjoy the commentary and good luck this year!

I

  1. LaDainian Tomlinson
  2. Marion Barber
  3. Steven Jackson
  4. Adrian Peterson
  5. Brian Westbrook

This group will be stellar in 2008. I put Brian Westbrook as the last player in Tier 1 because his talent level gets him into the Top 3, but his injury history and that fact that he was relatively injury free last season makes me worried. When he plays he’s great but every once in a while he’ll be listed as probable then not play – that kills fantasy teams.

LT is the best running back in the league and he plays 6 games a year against Oakland, Kansas City, and Denver – what more could a running back ask for?

Steven Jackson gets my #3 nod over Adrian Peterson because he’s more durable. Sure, he had a down year in 2007 but I’m willing to bet he meets expectations this time around. He’s a beast and as athletic as big backs get. He catches the ball with ease. Look for him to stay healthy and impress. AP runs very hard and is one of the most exciting players to watch in the NFL. However, he plays against tough defenses and will lose plenty of carries to Chester Taylor. I like him a lot, but he can’t get into the Top 3 in my rankings.

This leaves my surprise pick in 2008 – Marion Barber at #2. I’m not just doing this to be “different” but truly believe he’s going to dominate for Dallas this season. Some are scared because Felix Jones was a 1st round pick, but I wouldn’t worry much about that. Barber touched the ball less than 250 times in 2007 but still managed just under 1200 all purpose yards and 12 touchdowns. He’ll get 300+ looks this season, and that will mean great things for the hardest runner in the league.

II

  1. Frank Gore
  2. Joseph Addai
  3. Ryan Grant
  4. Clinton Portis
  5. Larry Johnson
  6. Marshawn Lynch

Call me optimistic, but I think Frank Gore will be a lot more like Marshall Faulk than Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell. First of all, he’s just a better athlete and instinctive runner than either of the latter, and he’s the best player on the team – just like Faulk was in St. Louis. Mike Martz is no dumby – well he’s kind of an idiot – but he knows to get his best players the ball. In St. Louis that was Faulk, Holt, and Bruce. In Detroit that was Roy Williams, and Calvin Johnson. In San Francisco that’s Gore – so yeah, I like his chances.

Addai is lower in my rankings than most other “experts” and that’s because of the way he finished the year and all the weapons in Indy. Over his final 8 games (half the season) Addai didn’t rush for more than 77 yards once. He did score 5 TDs, but still, that worries me. With Marvin coming back, Wayne, Gonzalez, and Dallas Clark in the fold, and a great 3rd down receiving back in Dominic Rhodes, I just don’t see Addai getting enough touches to be a top tier back.

Ryan Grant is a beast and if it weren’t for all the craziness in Green Bay and the Packers brass talking about Brandon Jackson getting more carries, he might find himself in the top tier. I know he’s a one year guy, but you all saw him run, the guy is a beast – ask Seattle.

Clinton Portis is probably getting undervalued here at 9, but I just don’t like the Skins offense all that much. Apparently they’ll be better this year under the 1st year head coach Jim Zorn, but I’m not sure that means more carries for Clinton. Either way, he’ll still be a nice #1 back in ’08.

Larry Johnson is one of the toughest runners in the NFL and if his quarterback wasn’t Brodie Croyle I’d be a little more excited about his chances. The way it is, he’s a #1 back, but somewhere toward the back of the pack, and he’s a little more high risk than most. He’s still a great runner though, and if the Chiefs offensive line can figure life out a little bit, LJ will be back in the Top 5.

I like Lynch a lot, and think he’ll be a nice back in 2008, but the Bills offense is still a little too limited for me to rank Marshawn much higher. Fred Jackson ran very well late last year in Buffalo, so he might share some carries with Lynch. Marshawn has lots of room to grow though, and he could make the jump sooner than later.

III

  1. Maurice Jones-Drew
  2. Earnest Graham
  3. Willis McGahee
  4. Michael Turner
  5. Reggie Bush
  6. Jamal Lewis
  7. Ronnie Brown

I love Jones-Drew, probably my favorite player in the league, but there are still time-share worries with Fantastic Fred so his hype has lost some pull with me, but I still have him as a low #1 starter in 12 team leagues. Earnest Graham played out of his mind last year, and I see more of the same in 2008. His offensive line is good and monstrous. Willis McGahee is an idiot but a talented runner. Still, Ray Rice will steal some touches and I’m not yet sold on Baltimore’s offense. Michael Turner could be the best on this list. He’s being vastly underrated in fantasy circles and should be a solid #2 in all formats. Reggie Bush has fallen off a little on the hype train, but he’s going to be better than the last two seasons. He’s not a full time runner, but he’s definitely a full time #2 starter for fantasy teams – especially in PPR leagues. Jamal Lewis can’t have as good of a run this year, can he? Many had him pegged as finished before he killed it last season. I don’t expect as good of numbers, but he’ll be a nice #2 again – that offensive line is solid in Cleveland. Ronnie Brown is my last Tier 3 runner, but only because he shouldn’t be fully healthy until week 6 or so and Bill Parcells seemingly loves Ricky Williams. Never saw that coming. Anyway, Brown is ultra talented and proved his worth as the only good Dolphins fantasy player last season. Expect a solid year from him.

IV

  1. Laurence Maroney
  2. Darren McFadden
  3. Thomas Jones
  4. Willie Parker
  5. Brandon Jacobs
  6. Edgerrin James
  7. Matt Forte

I think Laurence Maroney is more talented than Reggie Bush and Joseph Addai, but this high flying offense in New England doesn’t have room for a stellar fantasy output at running back. Still, he’ll have better numbers than he did in 2007, and who knows, NE could go ground crazy? McFadden isn’t a top tier running back this season, but he’s not a bottom of the barrel guy either. Many have him out of the Top 30, but I like his upside and see him as a #2 back. Thomas Jones will be back in 2008. Adding Faneca to a maturing offensive line will mean good things for Jones, and those who take a chance on him will reap the rewards. Willie Parker will lose regular and goal-line carries to rookie Rashard Mendenhall. However, if he doesn’t he’s going to be an incredible steal. It’s a crap shoot, but 22 is a safe ranking for him. Brandon Jacobs probably got hurt while I was writing this article – but when he plays he’s a 100 yard TD guy for a solid offense. My problem is that I think Ahmad Bradshaw is the best back in New York. Edge is old, sure, but he had a nice season in 2007 and I’m sure he’ll produce well for a solid offense in Arizona. Another offseason with the Cards new coaching staff should help that offensive line, too. Matt Forte has a great chance to succeed in Chicago. He does all the things that Adrian Peterson (Bear not Viking) does, but he does them better. I love watching Forte play, he runs hard, and will become a fan favorite in Chicago.

V

  1. Jonathan Stewart
  2. LenDale White
  3. Rudi Johnson
  4. Kevin Smith
  5. Selvin Young

Jonathan Stewart is, in my opinion, the best back drafted in 2008. However, he is also a running back playing for a coach that hates to play rookies, and a rushing attack that is slow with tiny holes to run through. Oh, and DeAngelo Williams isn’t a nobody. Still, J-Stew’s upside is too high to let slide. LenDale might lose carries to Chris Johnson. If that happens, I’m not so sure White’s confidence will stay in tact. He’s a nice TD threat, but it could be a tough year for the former Trojan TD killer. Rudi could be one hell of a steal this late, if last year was a fluke. But if he comes out running like Shaunna Alexander (like he did last year) hurry and trade him as fast as you can. Worth the mid-round risk? You bet, but it’s a dark shot. Kevin Smith and Selvin Young – I love both of these guys as possible starting options drafted very low. Usually, with backups, I like big upside and both of these guys have it. Smith, though, runs with the Lions – and that hasn’t been a blessing to anyone since James Stewart. Exactly. Selvin spends his time in Denver, and while that is a blessing of sorts, it also means he’s on thin ice and Shanny Splinter could have Ryan Torain running with the starting unit in no time. Still, everyone in tier 5 has risk with high reward.

VI

  1. Julius Jones
  2. Fred Taylor
  3. Rashard Mendenhall
  4. Chris Johnson
  5. Ahman Green

Fred Taylor, Ahman Green, and Julius Jones don’t have the high upside, but at least two of these vets are a sure thing for carries and decent numbers. Usually players like that fall late in drafts but more often than not they are fantasy worth all season long. That means they are good picks. I’m not sure Green is a great pick, but you can get him late and if he finds the fountain of youth, or just health, he’s going to be worthy. Jones won’t be a 25 carry 1400 yard 15 TD guy like Shaun was back in his hayday, but I like him to finish with more than a grand of rushing yardage and 6-8 touchdowns. That’s a solid year for a #3 back. Taylor won’t have as many scores, because he has a stud behind him that flourishes in the red-zone, but ask anyone who knows the game and they’ll tell you that Fred can still get it done. He’ll get 1000 yards or so, and be a stop gap player all season long – unless he gets hurt. That leaves me with two rookies in my final tier and both have a grand upside. Still, both have 1000+ yard backs with ability in front of them, and at least in Pittsburgh, that will matter early on. Willie Parker is a good back, but Mendenhall should get a fair share of carries on a pretty solid team. He’ll be a nice sleeper pick late and a handcuff for Willie that you’ll need. Chris Johnson could be dynamite in Tennessee. They have a pretty solid offensive line and he can make a lot of plays in the open field. As a late pick he could be a similar version of Reggie Bush in Reggie’s rookie year – but probably not as many catches seeing as though Tennessee doesn’t take as many chances as New Orleans does on offense.

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