Top 5 Free Picks: Papas Picks for NFL Week 9 2010

Papas Picks: Top 5 2010 NFL Week 9 Underdogs

I was just 2-3 last week, marking one of the few times I’ve lost a week this season. I still think I made some solid selections. Going against the Lions doesn’t look as good now that the Redskins lost, but Washington absolutely didn’t come to play in that game, which is evidenced by Ryan Torain’s 9 rushes for 10 yards. I took the Jags, seemed easy, it was. I had Tennessee, and I still like that one if Vince Young doesn’t fall down and sprain his left pinky toe-nail. What a baby. Miami just went to Cincinnati and kept the Bengals’ disappointing season going strong. And then I might have stretched it on the Vikings – but that game ended up being closer than it was moving. All in all – shoot, I lost a week – on to Week 9 and what looks like another profitable experience.

Week 9 Free Picks

Arizona Cardinals (+9) @ Minnesota Vikings:  Just based on Brad Childress being a numskull, and now a lame-duck coach, and the Vikings horrendous record this season, and their inability to rush the passer or complete drives- just based on those things, I’ll take any team and 9 points, even the hapless Cardinals.

Indianapolis Colts (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles: You probably can’t remember me picking the Colts as an underdog ever, well, that’s because they’re always favored. Anytime I get points and Peyton, I do my best to get him on my ballot – if you can dig it? I know Lucky keeps telling me that Vick is going to stop the Colts from doing what they do defensively, and that should make a mediocre defense pretty bad, but I’m ignoring that little know-it-all.

Miami Dolphins (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: 5.5 is a lot of points for a game that’s about to be separated by a field goal. These teams are actually very much the same – both have QBs that can get it done very well, and can look very bad – both have decent running games that were better the last couple years than they are this season. And both have very good defenses that don’t rate out as good as they are. Miami playin’ well on the road, I’ll take them.

Detroit Lions (+4.5) @ HOME VS. New York Jets: Call me lots of things, but I might be on to something here. The Lions can throw it, they can do it efficiently, and they have game breakers (not just Calvin Johnson, but Nate Burleson and Jahvid Best as well) – plus some solid guys that consistently help them move the ball, Brandon Petitgrew for one. They’re at home, they’ve been playing well, Stafford’s back and gunning – should be closer than you expect in New York.

Buffalo Bills (+3) @ HOME VS. Chicago Bears:  I will be happy when I’m right about this one. The Bills are ready to win, two OTs in a row, they played better than both of the teams they lost to, eventually that has to be a win – why not this week against Jay Turnover and the Teddy’s?

NFL UPSET OF THE WEEK

Houston Texans (+130) vs. San Diego Chargers

I’m going for less of a big risk this week, but I still think that if Arian Foster runs more than Schaub throws, the Texans beat the Colts – if only Kubiak could pull his head out far enough to see that. The funny thing is, he did it once. Anyway, this week the Texans try to get back on the saddle against San Diego, one of the real statistical anomalies in sports. #1 D, #1 O, 2-5 on the season. Crazy. I think they go to 2-6, because if they’ve been good at something, it’s playing to the level of their opponents and finding a way to lose.

Week 8 Top 5 NFL Predictions: Papas Underdog Picks

Papas Picks: Top 5 2010 NFL Week 8 Underdogs

Alright, back on the winning horse, now. I had those 3 straight 4-1 weeks followed by an 0-4-1 stink pile, and promptly back on track with a 3-2 run in Week 7. This week I’m adding a little “UPSET OF THE WEEK” portion after my top 5 picks, and that’s one I like to win outright. But for these, we’re still just trying to cover spreads, something that’s a lot easier if you stick to the dogs. Pick the right dogs and beat Vegas, folks, that’s what it’s all about. The sportsbooks don’t want you to pick like me, they’ll have to change everything up! Keep picking the right dogs and they’ll pull you through the finish line of the Iditarod. Here come ATS winners!

Week 8 Free Picks

Washington Redskins (+3) @ Detroit Lions: This one doesn’t seem fair, picking against a favored Lions team – but hey, I don’t write the lines, I just bet them, and if it says dog, it’s fair game. The Lions just lose, they have found ways to be close, win ATS a lot, but they haven’t found ways to win ball games. With Shaun Hill out, and Matthew Stafford coming back anyway, the Lions might not be the same offensive team that was scoring points at will over the last few weeks. In fact, I’m going to be they aren’t. Give me McNabb and Splinter in Detroit.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys: This one seems to easy, but I might as well take it. The Cowboys are one of the best teams in football at finding a way to lose after dominating the football game. Against New York, they just got the poo kicked right out of them, so there wasn’t any need to look for a loss. However, going for it early in the 4th when they needed a field goal anyway was stupid, and that probably kept them from covering. Stupid Cowboys. Anyway, the Jags aren’t good, but neither are the Cowboys – giving a bad team 7 points to make up seems wrong.

Tennessee Titans (+4) @ San Diego Chargers: I know, I know, the Chargers are good, right? This is the same things as Dallas folks, don’t give them credit until they prove they have something going this year. The Chargers are giving up 4 points to a pretty darn good Titans team, and I’m not sure they deserve that kind of credit. This team finds ways to lose and the Titans are always a well-coached, tough-nosed football team – that’s a bad combo if you’re rooting for San Diego.

Miami Dolphins (+2) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The Dolphins are the better team, here. They haven’t started running well yet, but they will, and then watch out. Right now, the Bengals are slipping, and Miami’s tough-nosed and underrated defense is a nice bet to win on the road. Plus, Chad Henne to Brandon Marshall is going to be a common theme on Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) @ New England Patriots:  The Patriots haven’t looked good, and they are kind of scaring me with their second half shut-downs offensively. This is a team that used to live on big plays, and now they can’t get anything done in the 2nd half over 10 yards if they’re lucky. The Vikings haven’t played well, but they still have the talent to do big things. If Brett plays, I think he torches the Patriots secondary, if it’s Tarvaris Jackson, a run-more scheme helps the Vikings keep it close. I like the cover here.

NFL UPSET OF THE WEEK

Houston Texans (+200) @ Indianapolis Colts

Now that the Texans know they can beat the Colts, it might just be easier in Round 2 of this divisional showdown. I’m taking into account that the Texans are getting healthier, coming off a bye, while the Colts are hurting more and more every single day. It’s still unsure if Joseph Addai will be able to play, probably not, and this is already a team with trouble on the offensive side of the ball. I expect better numbers out of Matt Schaub this time around, as the Colts will surely pay more attention to stopping the run. Oh yeah, and I don’t think they’ll be successful doing that, either. Take the Texans, they’re making a broom especially for Peyton and his hobbled cast of Colts.

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 8 NFL Fantasy Football Advice & Tips

Alright, it’s been a while since I posted the emails (and answers) being sent to me, but I’ve been dealing out fantasy advice left and right. This is certainly my most busy season to date, and thus I hesitate, but here’s my email address if you have your fantasy or just regular football questions on queue. PAPAWEIMER50@Hotmail.com – Hook me up with your best questions, comments, and observations, and if your stuff is relevant I’ll bust it out on my weekly “Ask Papa Weimer” section. If it doesn’t get into the article, I still answer everything as quick as possible. Keep reading, the fun has just begun!

Bryson just off Broadway asks, “Lucky, this is my first time writing in about anything fantasy, but I need a tight end pick-up because Dallas Clark’s wristies are no longer healthy, and the guy I picked up last week (John Carlson) didn’t do dick. How would you rank the following TEs? Ben Watson, Brent Celek, Heath Miller, Marcedez Lewis…”

I think Celek has a nice role on the Eagles still, he hasn’t been great, but he’s shown (last year) that he’s a very good tight end. The targets are there, he’s got 43 so far this season and I think that’s more than any of the other guys… (actually not true, Ben Watson has 46) – still I just never know about the passing attack in Cleveland, who’s going to be leading it, and so on, so that’s why I originally ranked Watson just after Celek. Watson is a specimen though, I’ll never forget him chasing down Champ Bailey in the playoffs from clear across the field – that was awesome, and with no real receiving threat there, I’m going to move him ahead – he might be the surest thing for those QBs. Lewis has been a touchdown machine thus far, but his targets are fewer, but he is a great red-zone target. Still, it’s hard to trust him. He has more yards and touchdowns than Celek, though, so he’s still in this group. All these guys are really pretty even.

Heath Miller catches touchdowns, and maybe he’ll be relied on by Big Ben a little more now with Santonio Holmes gone, but I think Ben likes Mike Wallace just fine. And He just wont’ get as many looks as Celek or Watson, and I don’t think he has Lewis’s upside.

D-Burgos from work wrote, “I lost 97 to 95.. I benched Palmer (like my guardian Angel suggested…lol) who gave me 26 pts in my league’s format and Kolb gave me 5.. DAMN!!…lol – Ok… Week 8… I need a Flex, and I hear Reggie Bush is coming back, but how would you rank him amongst these guys? Bush / Chris Ivory / Beanie Wells / Michael Bush / Jonathan Stewart /Anthony Gonzalez or a Hot Lee Evans? Thanks Guardian Angel… lol”

Hey, can’t win them all…. I did say that I liked Palmer’s match-up a little more, but that he was a “risky” fantasy option. How was I to know that Kevin Kolb would come out looking like he did? The NFL, not always the most predictable of leagues. That probably goes well with the fact that Lucky was 5-9 with his NFL Picks this week… Ha. Like I said, can’t win them all!

Reggie Bush is a decent option, but I think I’d rank Beanie Wells ahead of him. Then Reggie. Then Michael Bush. Then Lee Evans. Then Jon Stewart. Then Anthony Gonzalez. I don’t think Chris Ivory will be worth owning past this week. With Reggie coming back, Ladel Betts still in the mix, and Pierre Thomas well on his way to recover, Ivory isn’t a guy that will have any value when you get done blinking. I rank Beanie #1 because I think he’s the only guy that could conceivably get 20 touches a game for the rest of the season. Reggie Bush has upside in terms of catches and big plays, but I think the consistency from Beanie will only go up from here. I still think he will be the focal point of that offense for a good portion of the season.

Sorry for the hairy advice last week, but at least my track record is still pretty good.  -Guardian Angel

Ben Wallace of West Texas writes, “I’m in a couple survivor leagues down here in the country of Texas and because I’ve stayed away from picking home-country teams, I’m in the final 2 and 3 of both situations. There’s some Texas-sized money on the line, and you’ve been helpful with your picks thus far. I can’t pick New Orleans, Indianapolis, Seattle, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or New England – Who would you go with this week?

Nice thinking, Ben – I like the clever thought process. If you’re ever in a homer fantasy league or survivor pool, or anything of the sort, you always do better eliminating those teams from your selection committee – that way, when those teams lose games they were favored to win, you get rid of a big chunk. I’m willing to bet you lost half your participants in Week 2 (Dallas’s loss at home to the Bears) and when you probably luckily steered clear of New Orleans’ losses to Arizona (Week 5) and Cleveland (Week 7). Good work. I’m always thinking survivor, it’s one of my favorite games, and like you I’m still in 2 (I lost one when I picked the 49ers in Week 1, stupid rookie mistake, never take a road team in Week 1 – or any week – if you can help it). That brings me to my top 5 for this week. You still have to make the decision, ultimately, so here’s how I’d rank them…

Kansas City at home against Buffalo: I think this is your best bet (despite the fact that I’m picking the Bills to cover a 9-point spread this weekend). You have a big time home field advantage on your side, as the Chiefs are always much better at home than they are on the road, and that’s evident throughout the team’s history. You have a strong rushing attack, maybe the best in the league, against one of the worst run defenses around. You have a Chiefs team that has learned how to win, where Buffalo, even playing at the top of their game, hasn’t collected a win all season. The odds are in your favor, too, the Chiefs are the biggest favorite Vegas has to offer this week. But they’re still the Chiefs – tough week – good luck!

Dallas Cowboys at home against Jacksonville: This might be scary because Dallas has also been good at losing (ala San Diego) despite better numbers than their opponents (on average, not last week). But I thin Jon Kitna’s presence will be good – the Defense will inevitably play harder without their offense at full health, and Kitna is still a solid QB option in the league. Jacksonville probably doesn’t have the ability to stop anything Dallas wants to do, and that’s why I think Felix Jones has his best day this season. Dallas will run more, and that’s good for them. Still, now you’re picking a home team, something you’ve done well to not do.

New York Jets at home against Green Bay: It’s tough, I think Green Bay could pull the upset here – but chances are the Jets beat the Packers up by running the ball, and you have to think New York is going to pull out a great game against the pass one of these weeks….

Washington on the road at Detroit: On the road picks are never a great thing to rely on, but it’s a tough week. The Redskins are better than the Lions, though I must admit, Detroit might be close to a toss up at home against the Skins. The only reason I would take Washington is because Matthew Stafford is coming back, and maybe, just maybe, he’s rusty. And if he starts out poorly, his confidence (and the team’s confidence as well) might struggle – because of how well the offense moved the ball under Shaun Hill. Tough one, hopefully you’re choosing from above.

Tennessee Titans on the road at San Diego: The Titans are playing tough, the Chargers are good at losing. I know it’s a dangerous pick, but shoot, this week is tough, what did you want me to do, pick the Rams at home? (they would have been option 6, gross)

NFL Top 5 Best Bets: Papas Picks Week 7 Underdogs

Papas Picks: Top 5 2010 NFL Week 7 Underdogs Okay, okay, the Sportsbooks got the best of me this one week, but that kind of stuff happens, you know why? Because this is sports, fellas, ladies, gents – and that’s the way sports work. Nobody is right all the time, because even if you make the best pick out there, sometimes that team just doesn’t play well. Also, and it is very much the case so you need to be cognizant of this – sometimes you don’t see the game well. There are some examples of this last week. I thought Oakland would come out and play with the 49ers, but why? They aren’t as good without Bruce in there, and the 49ers are a good run-defense team. And with no wins, the game meant more. Those are things that are my fault – and I’m naturally sorry about that, but hey, it is what it is!!! And I’ve been making you money for weeks. I was 0-4-1 last week, and that sure sucks – but I was 12-3 the three weeks prior to that, and that’s really good. I like winning 4 more than losing 4, and while I like zeroes in my record, I’m not in the business of starting with them. So here goes nothing, the great comeback!

Week 7 Free Picks

New England Patriots (+3) @ San Diego Chargers: This has a lot in common with the ship I jumped off of last week with 49ers manning the sails – however, there’s one big difference, the visiting team is New England, you know Tom Brady, Coach in a cut-off, traded their best receiver, traded for an old receiver from Seattle, cold winters, nice summers – New England, not Oakland. So, I’m sticking with it – unless the Chargers start playing good football, I can’t be bothered betting on them – especially against good teams.

Oakland Raiders (+8.5) @ Denver Broncos: I don’t see how this game doesn’t get bet by every sharp in the business. The Raiders and their rushing attack are a tough match-up for the Broncos defense, and even if Bruce doesn’t play, you’d think Oakland keeps it close enough with the run.

New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys: I know, I know, Dallas is good right? Sorry, I can’t buy it. They are really good, really good at finding ways to lose. That’s a tough trait to shed, look at the Bengals – good offense, good defense, still struggling with that entire Bungles thing. Dallas will have a lot of trouble with this Giants defense – that’s a motivated group right now.

Arizona Cardinals (+6) @ Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks might have three wins on their resume, but they don’t deserve to be 6 point favorites against anybody in the league. Maybe the Jaguars right now, but nobody else. Anyway, the Cardinals can run it, and Max Hall looks solid enough – I think it’s close, and I can’t believe there won’t be a little lull in the Hawks game after last week’s big road win.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) @ Green Bay Packers:  This is the house that Brett built, and he’s not in the business of losing to his old team. With the Packers hurting bad, and the Vikings looking to get back to .500, I like Brett’s chances to get his old team. After all, that is why he wanted to be a Viking, so he could get 2 shots a year at his old club. Awesome. Back to winning, not in the business of losing…

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 5 2010 Fantasy Football Picks

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 5 2010 Fantasy Football Picks: Hey there, the emails that have been coming in are great, plenty of great questions and with every great question comes one of my answers – it being great or not comes later, but I’ve been having a lot of fun with the writer/reader interaction, and I hope you all are enjoying it as well. Keep writing in and asking me for advice, agree or disagree, sometimes it’s just nice to see somebody else’s side of the situation, gives you some perspective. I tried to pull out the questions and answers that are most relevant and will help you the most this Sunday, and here is what I came up with…

Da Bird asks, “Should I trade Roddy White and the Giants’ D to get Wes Welker and the Packers’ D?”

No. No sir. There’s some common thought going around that Wes Welker is going to blow up with Randy Moss out of his way. Wrong, Wes Welker is going to see what it’s like when defenses prepare to shut him down without slinging two players over to the other side of the field to pay attention to Randy Moss. Wes Welker is still good, I’d love to have him on my team, but Roddy White is a better option, one that I’d be very happy with. I just don’t think Welker gets better. The Giants D isn’t as good ad the Packers, but it’s just a D, never let that decide a trade for you.

Donny B from Chestnut Street says, “A plethora of questions coming your way here. 1- Who do you start at your flex this week, Barber or Michael Bush? 2- I’m still down on Witten, but should I give him up with Boldin to get Austin Collie and McCluster? 3- Vince Young or Shaun Hill this week, Mike Vick is out and I don’t have Kolb… Thanks for all your help!”

1) Michael Bush, no doubt about it. His match-up is solid, and he’s a great runner – look at his numbers, he gets the chances he produces good stuff. With McFadden playing at 50% or not playing at all, it’s Bush’s turn to take advantage of some #1 bacl targets.
2) Absolutely not. I’d rather have Boldin than Collie (despite point totals) and I’d rather have Witten than McCluster, easy. Bad trade. Witten will end up doing work in Dallas, it’s only been three games, give him 5 before you give him away.
3) I would also start Shaun Hill, if Stafford doesn’t come back. The Rams aren’t very good on the road – it should be a shoot out, they aren’t great in the secondary – I think Hill is a decent start, not only do they have CJ – but Jahvid Best out of the backfield is also a scary weapon, and those two TEs (Scheffler and Pettigrew) are both big sure handed targets as well. Vince’s best weapon is the guy he hands the football to, and he gets no fantasy numbers from handing off.

David from the Mall pleads, “Papa, should I go with Gradkowski or Bradford this week?  What is up in Seattle? Is Lynch going to be the man? What will happen to Forsett? Is Moss going to Minnesota? Is Tate in NE worth picking up or will it be somebody else?

I honestly have no idea to any of your questions accept that I would go with Bradford. Your guess is as good as mine with Lynch and Forsett, but I know that Lynch is a powerful back that catches the ball well, has good speed, and has put together some great all around seasons in a bad offense. If the Hawks were willing to meet the asking price that nobody else would, you think they’d give him a chance to be the man, but who knows. I have no idea about Moss and I’m not sure if it will make him more or less worth your roster spot. (WAIT!!! Now that Moss has moved to Minnesota, back to his NFL roots, is he in a better or worse situation? I think he’s in a situation where he’ll try harder, a place where he gets to play with a guy that he’s always wanted to play for, on a team that desperately wants a guy like him to add into the playbook – that seems like a better situation than his last gig, but a lot depends on Brett Favre.  As for the guy likely taking over for Randy in New England, I’ve always loved Tate, and he would seem to be ready to take full advantage of more targets- but hoody is an interesting guy.

Johnson-de-ville at work writes, “Looking for Survivor pool options for week 5. I’ve already gone through the Jets, Ravens, Colts, and Green Bay – can you give me a Top 3 for this weekend, not those teams?

My man, you bet. I love it if I can stay away from road teams in my survivor pool, but eventually you come across one that looks too good to be true, and with the teams you listed off the board, I think I’d have to rank the Saints #1. They are going on the road to play the Cardinals, but that turnover-feast offense will try to chew up the clock. I think Brees and his O has their biggest day of the season. I like the Bengals because I don’t think the Bucs can stop their run, and the Bengals should be very focused coming off a big loss last week. San Diego at Oakland is another one – as good as the Raiders can be defensively, the Chargers are just too good to bet against.

Papas Picks: Top 5 NFL Underdog Bets of Week 5 2010

Papas Picks: Top 5 2010 NFL Week 5 Underdogs

I’m not one to brag, but, well yeah I am! Ha. And guess what? The sportsbooks hate me right now. Every week I show that I’ve caught onto their evil tricks and sure enough, I keep hitting the lotto like I’m picking the flipping numbers out of my own hat. In Week 2 I was 4-1. In Week 3 I followed up my 4-1 week with a record of 4-1. And what do you know, right after that, I throw 5 more dogs on the fire, and I got myself my own hot dog stand – another 4-1 week staring me right in the wallet. Yahtzee! The season is only 4 weeks deep and I’m on a 3 week run of 12-3. Lucky is over .500, but I’ll say this once again, nobody, NOT NOBODY, is picking like me. Follow my pack of dogs, run them, cuddle them, take them on a bloody hike for all I care – but whatever you do, keep playing the hot hand!

Week 5 Free Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Listen, I know the Bengals are good and they should be fired up coming off an embarrassing loss at the hands of the previously win less Brownies. But the Bucs are solid – they have a strong offensive line, a secondary that is playing great, and they’re going up against a Bengals team that seems to believe they are the Warren Moon led Oilers – please, you guys run first and pass second – on second thought, keep passing like it’s your key to all you can eat lobster, I just bet against you and I want to WIN!

Washington Redskins (+3) @ HOME VS Green Bay Packers: The Redskins have been playing lights out defense, well at least they did last week – and I know that Aaron Rodgers is a fantasy football god, but the Packers have no running game (I almost suspect that Rodgers has a couple carries for 20 yards and leads the team in rushing) – and  that makes it tough to go on the road and win, let a lone be favored to win. Take the Skins, they will run the ball well against the Packers.

Oakland Raiders (+6.5) @ HOME VS San Diego Chargers: It all depends on if the Raiders can run the ball, but even against a San Diego defense that has put up great stoppage numbers against the run this season, I still think Michael Bush will get the ground game going. The Chargers can play like donkey dump against anyone any week, and I think that’s this weekend in Oakland.

Cleveland Browns (+3) @ HOME vs Atlanta Falcons: Arse seems to think that Seneca and Hillis can’t team up to beat the Falcons, shoot, why not? Hillis is a battering ram, and while the Falcons have been better against the run, this stellar offensive line in Cleveland will certainly put that to the test. What it comes down to is Cleveland stopping the run, Atlanta not being able to, and the Falcons getting karma for their loss that wasn’t last week against San Fran. It all evens out!

Denver Broncos (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens: The Broncos can throw it on anyone, they score points, the Ravens are still a little anemic on offense and 7 points ends up being a lot- too much – I hope.

May the streak of winners continue!!!

Papas Picks: NFL Top 5 UNDERDOG Picks for Week 4

Papas Picks: Top 5 2010 NFL Week 4 Underdogs

After kicking some tail-pipe in Week 3, I was back to the same old tricks in Week 4, picking dang good underdogs, that’s right. I followed up my 4-1 get down with yet another 4-1 performance, losing only because I relied on the Jaguars to do anything with themselves. Silly me. I continue to hold down the best winning percentage of anybody making picks here at LuckyLester.com. That’s a fat 8-2 over the last two weeks. I don’t get any extra bonus for that or anything, but let’s be honest, it feels good to be the best!!! Hahah. How’s that Lucky? (Editor’s note; Not very happy with that, old man.) There’s still no better way to be the sportsbooks than slamming the right dogs! Here’s how Week 4 is going to get me my first 5-0 underdog grand-slam of the season!

Week 4 Free Picks

Detroit Lions (+14.5) @ Green Bay Packers: The Lions haven’t done much except lose football games, right? Wrong. They’ve lost, but they’ve twice already this season, have lost just one game by two touchdowns (24-10 loss to Minnesota last week) and shouldn’t have much of a problem playing outside this time of year. The value is there, can’t you see it?

Cleveland Browns (+3) @ HOME VS Cincinnati Bengals: The Browns still aren’t getting any respect. They are a better team than 0-3, which means that’s bound to change. They don’t make big mistakes (unless Jake Delhomme is back in Week 4, in which case, ABORT), they have a good offensive line and a tough running back, and they play decent defense. The Bengals haven’t put a solid offensive performance together since garbage time touchdowns in Week 1 – I’m telling you, don’t believe me, fine, but the Browns have good value this week!

San Francisco 49ers (+7) @ Atlanta Falcons: The 49ers are right on schedule. Play like crap against bad teams, play well against good teams. Seven points is too many for me to turn my back on the 49ers already. I still think they are good. Maybe silly, maybe making money?

Oakland Raiders (+3.5) @ HOME vs Houston Texans: Could this be my Jaguars pick like last week? Hey, I can’t complain about 4-1, so it is, than so be it. But the Raiders run the ball really well, well enough even to run it on the Texans – something that Houston hasn’t had to deal with much this season. The Raiders have ridden that run-game to two close games over the last couple weeks, and they should have won both. I like them to win at home, with the Texans returning to who the Texans are, a .500 team that beats somebody good and loses to somebody bad.

St. Louis Rams(+1) @ HOME vs. Seattle Seahawks: Come on, have the Seahawks really played well enough to be a favorite anywhere but Seattle? Short answer: No. Long answer: Hell no.

Fantasy Football Questions: Ask Papa Weimer Week 4

Fantasy Football Questions: Ask Papa Weimer Week 4: I’m a little late coming out of my route this week, but shoot, I just woke up – give an old far a break. With questions coming in with the urgent pitter-patter of a small child asking if we’re there yet, I’ve been thrusting my knowledge into the in-boxes of many a fan. It’s a good deal. If you want your question put into the article, or even better yet, want an answer to a dilemma you’re going through – toss a quick one this way, papaweimer50@hotmail.com – that’s where I live! But I’ve got people to do and things to see, so here’s this week’s Ask Papa section….

Stan out West says, “Papa W… Always need your pearls of wisdom to ensure that I stay on top!! What would you do with a start 3 WR situation that includes the likes of Wayne, Driver and Walter (Austin, Moore, Jacoby Jones on pine). With my tier 1 guy on the pine, should I stick with these guys?”

Well, I think I’d go with your same line-up. I’d maybe go with Lance Moore, (I like him with bush out and all), but tough to sit any of your guys (maybe Walter, but with Andre Johnson hurting, it’s tough to sit Walter, as he might become the favorite there). I like Flacco, but the Steelers match-up isn’t a good one, that’s for sure. Still, they aren’t going to run very well against Pittsburgh, so throwing might be there only option. Maybe Bradford against Seattle, but then you’re relying on a rookie QB – tough call there. I think I’d just go with the guys you have, I can’t think of a good enough reason to do otherwise.

Bernard from UMass simply asks, “Mark Clayton or Brandon Lloyd?”

That’s another tough one, both guys expected to do nothing and have been great. I’d probably go with Clayton just because there’s nobody he’s competing with to be that #1 target in St. Louis where Lloyd is competing with Gaffney, Demaryius Thomas, Eddie Royal. Plus, just one more reason to go with my guy, Clayton – Lloyd was hampered at practice a bit this week, plus they play the Colts – not much time to get deep passes off against them.

Big Dave from Minnesota writes, “Papa should I drop Celek and pick up Shockey or hang with Celek? Should I Start Schaub or Orton this week?”

I would hang with Celek. Though Shockey might have a little more value with Bush gone. Celek hasn’t been much a part of the passing game in Philly yet, but he’s still a very good receiver, and I would probably wait until it picks up for him a little – give him at least a couple more weeks. He was good enough last year to give him a few games to get going in 2010. As for question 2, I would start Schaub against any team over Orton against just about anybody maybe besides Detroit. Schaub plays Oakland this week, and while Nnamdi Asomugha is one of the best lock down guys in football, there’s still Owen Daniels, Kevin Walter, Jacoby Jones, and Steve Slaton to throw the ball to. He can’t guard them all. Orton plays Indy, not the easiest team to compile passing numbers on.

Pedey Writes, “What do you think about trading Eli for Henne. I have cutler so my backup won’t play too much.”

You know, i’m not crazy about Eli but I don’t know if I’d trade him. I’ll tell you what, though, i sure like Henne a lot more than Eli, but that’s just because Eli makes the dumbest faces in football (outside of his coach, of course). I think I would probably stick with Eli on a fantasy basis, but it’s close enough to do what you want. I don’t think you need to do it, but if you’re looking to improve the in-game facial expressions from your bench (where both Henne and Eli will be spending most of their time on your team) you might want to make that trade. Henne threw it all over the Patriots last season, totals similar to last week against the Jets. Against the Pats patchwork secondary, I ‘m not so sure he won’t have another big game. Eli will have his share of good ones, though. The choice is yours, I won’t be disappointed either way.

DB sends me this, “Getting trade offers all over the place, Wes Welker for Boldin, do I give up ‘Quan?”

I’m pretty sure that I would hold onto Boldin, but if you like Welker more, I think those two guys will be really similar in points by years’ end. If it’s a PPR, I would consider it more, but still – Welker has scored 1, 8, 3, and 4 touchdowns the last 4 years. But he has great consistency, something you rarely get from receivers. And he has 3 TDs already, but that’s part of my dilemma. See, you don’t pay for a horse because it’s acting like a bull for the last couple weeks. I mean, you don’t pay for a high catch, yardage receiver with few touchdowns for a guy that hasn’t had more than 8 catches or gotten more than 65 yards. You dig? Boldin’s almost at 100 yards per game in a really tough offense with a young improving QB and a great offensive line and he has 29 targets and 20 catches in 3 games. I think I’d ride him out, he’ll take you somewhere golden.

Papas Picks: Top 5 2010 NFL Week 3 Underdogs

Papas Picks: Top 5 2010 NFL Week 3 Underdogs: I dominated sports betting in Week 2, slamming my underdog picks to the tune of a 4-1 record, the best winning percentage of the year so for for any writer here at LuckyLester.com. Now I know that taking the right underdog is the way to beat the sportsbooks, and that’s what I’ve been doing since I took up the game. Favorites are not only expected to win but favorites of the public and their skewed perception. That doesn’t mean underdogs every pick make you a winner, it just means you can find some really good value in those dogs. Last week I won with Pittsburgh, Miami, Chicago, and San Francisco. If you took all those dogs to win outright, you got paid like a champ. If you took them all to win ATS, you still got paid handsomely. My only lose last week was Buffalo, and boy did the Bills play like a pile. I’ve got five more dogs for you in Week 3.

Week 3 Free Picks

Tennessee Titans (+3) @ New York Giants: The Titans are better than the Giants. There it is, and it makes this bet a good one.

Cleveland Browns (+11) @ Baltimore Ravens: The Browns play a lot of close games – they have done so in both contests this season and they did so a lot last year. They also won a bunch of games down the stretch in 2009, and if they remembered what got them there (running the ball) they they’d have a nice chance to stun the Ravens in Week 3. I don’t think that happens, but I do think they cover in a close game. Remember, it’s not like the Ravens have done anything offensively this season. Tough to take them to win by 11 when 11 is hard for them to put up on their own scoreboard.

Atlanta Falcons (+4) @ New Orleans: The Falcons have played some solid football so far this season and everybody should be healthy headed into New Orleans. Plus, they always play the Saints tough. With 4 points in what promises to be a close game, I’ll take the team that didn’t just lose one of their top offensive weapons last week, the team nobody expects to win anyway.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) @ HOME vs Philadelphia Eagles: The Jaguars were terrible last week, but they’ve done that crap before on the west coast – in fact, just about every time they make the plane ride. They are back home this week and hosting an Eagles team that is 1-1 and really struggling to stop opposing offenses. I expect a big game from both David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew – turning into a big home win for Jacksonville and a loss for the Eagles that might bring up more quarterback questions. But I’m telling you, QB isn’t this team’s problem. Stopping somebody is.

St. Louis Rams(+4) @ HOME vs. Washington Redskins: The Redskins haven’t been able to finish drives, and that’s not a good thing for road favorites to have in their man-purse. The Rams have played a couple close games, and they are on the verge of breaking through on a lot of levels. I like what they’ve been doing defensively, and I think they pull a quick one on the unsuspecting Redskins.

Ask Papa Weimer: NFL Week 3 Fantasy Advice

My fantasy teams are getting kicked around in the first couple weeks of the season, but hey, that’s okay, I’ve seen it happen before and I’ve come out alive. Back in 1989 I started the season 0-6 before climbing back like a damned mountain goat and taking the title from the unsuspecting Carl’s in my fantasy league. These days there are just more dinks to take players from, and I suspect you should. Here’s some advice going forward…

Vernon in Tennessee got a trade offer, “Ok I got another tough one. I have Frank Gore and I have just been offer a trade for him for MJD. I like them both but MJD isn’t looking to good and Gore looks great. What do you think?”

Don’t trade Gore, i love MJD, but I think Gore will be great all year. I don’t know how the Seahawks bundled up the big running back from San Francisco, but I don’t expect many teams to duplicate that task this season. Frank runs real hard, he’s going to catch at least 60 balls, and if he stays healthy he’s a lock for the Top 5 – the only way you get rid of a guy like that is if someone offers you AP or Chris Johnson in return. Listen, I am one of MJD’s biggest fans, always have been, but he is in a bad spot in Jacksonville. I keep waiting for them to get better, stronger, more efficient in the running game – but it just hasn’t happened. I don’t see them being ahead too often this year, and MJD hasn’t been healthy this season. It’s hard to get healthy when you are carrying a load every week. I think you’re in safe hands with Frank – and I’d stay there.

P-Witty in Bean Town says, Jimmy Claussen is now the guy in Carolina, so I’m thinking about trading away DeAngelo because I expect a roller coaster season with the rookie calling the shots, who should I target?

To answer your question of who to target, here are some guys I like that might have DeAngelo value in some circles… LeSean McCoy (think he’ll have a Brian Westbrook type season), Maurice Jones-Drew (I still like Drew, and think he should get it going soon, and he’s scored less than D-Lo, so someone might be freaking out), Pierre Thomas (a good guy to target right now before he has a full week as the lone-star running back in New Orleans) – those are three guys I like to add because either A- some owners don’t trust what they’ve done so far (McCoy) or B- I think they’ll be much better than they’ve been.

But to be honest, I think you should keep Williams and either trade him when his value is higher, or just ride him out. I actually think DeAngelo will be better with Claussen. Why? Because with Claussen, the stupid Panthers’ play caller, whomever he may be, will pull his head out of his ass and run the ball more. They did it last year when Moore came in to replace Delhomme, and they’ll do it this year, too. They’ve been passing the ball way too much when the game is close. I would probably wait to trade Williams – at least see what he does this week – even against a very tough Cincinnati defense. But I guess if you can get good value, he does go up against a couple tough defenses the next couple weeks – I’ve just always thought the Panthers could run on anyone if they would just call run plays. With Claussen, I think they will.

Dan in Indianapolis writes, “I’m thinking of trading Anquan Boldin and Brandon Jackson to get Roddy White, what do you think?”

I actually like Anquan Boldin – I think he will be solid all year, but if you’re worried about Flacco’s first couple weeks, I understand the trade. I just think Joe will figure it out soon, here, and light up the airways – remember, this team actaully threw a lot last year, and I think they’ll keep chucking it. I just don’t know if I’d give up Jackson (who is currently the starter on a good offense) and Boldin, for White, who has his ups and downs as well. But I’d rather have White than Boldin, if just by a little bit. So if all you’re looking for is an upgrade, I think you’re getting it.

Dave in Minnesota asks, “Will Demaryius Thomas, Earl Bennett, Tolbert, Josh Morgan, or Brandon Lloyd be worth picking up?”

I really like Aromoshadu, and I think last week’s benching was a bit of a heads up for him, more than a season long thing – so I would think he’ll be back in the swing of things soon in chicago, making Earl Bennett undesirable – but I could be wrong. LLoyd is okay, but he’s trumped by the upside of his young teammate. Thomas is my favorite of the bunch you mentioned. Josh Morgan is an interesting case, I’ve always liked the Virginia Tech guy (i think that’s where he’s from) and he could be good- but he’s going to be in a run first offense with at least two receiving options ahead of him (Vernon Davis, Crabtree) and three if you count Gore. I like Tolbert, always have, not sure how many looks he’ll get but he runs like everyone wishes Brandon Jacobs would run. As far as handcuffs go, he’s one I would actually own, because he’ll produce something every week and some weeks could be huge. I would rank D. Thomas as #1 of the guys you listed.

Billy from Philadelphia writes, “Hey Papa, last year you gave some good advice about survivor/suicide picks – I know it’s early, but better early than late for your advice, who are your top 3 picks this week? (That way I will surely have an option).”

New England at home against Buffalo is stealing candy from a baby. The Patriots are always a good bet coming off a loss, especially one where they were so useless in the 2nd half (like last week). But this is even better. While the Bills do have a nice secondary to match up with Moss, Welker, and the boys, there is no way they score more points than the Patriots. Free survivor pick of the week… New England.

Minnesota at home against the Lions – If you haven’t taken the Vikings yet, and you probably haven’t (because you’re still alive) I think they are a great bet to turn it around this week. Heck, even if they played like they have the last two weeks, I still think they walk away with a win against Detroit. And I expect them to play better. It’s ballsy, but hey, what are you if you’re not that?

Cincinnati on the road at Carolina – that’s my only road pick. I like to stay away from road games in survivor, if only because fewer road teams win, it’s just the way it is. But I can’t see how Carolina would win this one. They have a bad defense and Cincinnati has a good one. They have a rookie QB and a coach that hates running the ball when he should. If you’re in a bind, I like the Bengals to oust the Panthers.

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