Fantasy Football Rankings: Fantasy Focus Week 3 2011

Check out last week’s article if you’re interested in seeing how my picks panned out – no great performances by my top guys, though all were pretty solid. Of my solid starters group, only Stafford and Turner put up real solid numbers – but Bradshaw and Moss both had productive days. Grossman was decent (292, 2 touchdowns) while Sproles and Devery Henderson were very good for my sleepers group – the only guy that didn’t put up productive stats was Mark Sanchez. Daniel Thomas, McGehee, and Burleson were all very good if you listened and needed a very low-owned sleeper for Week 2.

(Papa wants to let you know, if you want some old-school bad-ass fantasy advice, send him emails to….. PAPAWEIMER50@HOTMAIL.COM)

Here are this week’s guys…

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week, looking for Top 5 at their position.

1. Phillip Rivers- KC Chiefs secondary is swiss cheese.
2. Vincent Jackson – Somebody pay this guy, please.
3. Chris Johnson – The law of averages says he’s too good to struggle three weeks in a row.
4. Larry Fitzgerald – Great match-up against a Seattle team that is solid against the run but struggles against the pass, especially against big receivers.
5. Tom Brady- Tough to bet against him, ever, especially now when he’s in “break all the records” mode.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week.

1. Jeremy Maclin–Really good player, should torch the Giants.
2. Percy Harvin- I’m not worried about starting him despite McNabb’s struggles, should have a big game.
3. Ryan Matthews– Chiefs… Matthews has looked very good in all aspects of the game.
4. Matt Schaub -They’ll have to throw the ball to beat the Saints, and if Houston can block for a sec, he’ll have his chances.
5. Steve Smith – Zoom-zoom!

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or falling off the charts, but I still like them this week…

1. Ben Tate– He’ll be the man for a very impressive rushing attack, even against a good run D I like him.
2. DeAngelo Williams – that’s how much his stock has dropped in 2 weeks, he’s at sleeper status…
3. Devery Henderson– Can’t not start this guy right now.
4. Shonn Greene – With nobody believing in Green these days, I think he has a chance for a great day this week.
5. Kevin Kolb– Ranked 19th by ESPN, I bet Kolb is Top 10.

Super Sleepers: Undrafted guys that are usually unowned, but in a pinch put ‘em in coach!

1. David Nelson–I like his size as a mismatch with the corners in New England.
2. Tony Scheffler– Petitgrew might be out, and Scheffler has a nice match-up against a Minnesota team that gives up big plays to TEs.
3. Tashard Choice – Owned Jamal Charles and Felix Jones and Steven Jackson? So much for that fantasy strength at RB. Maybe try Choice, could have a nice day if given touches. Dallas’s offense will need some kind of help.
4. Jabar Gaffney – He’s unowned, getting targets, and playing against that Dallas secondary. Give him a shot if you’re in a bind.
5. Tarvaris Jackson – In a two QB league, Jackson plays the Arizona Cardinals…. That secondary is bad. Bad enough to start T-Jack? It’s a chance, risky and crazy, but it might just be crazy enough to work.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Denarius Moore – Great game last week, kid. This week, enjoy Revis island.
2. Hakeem Nicks– He’s great, and probably the Giants only healthy target – but that’s why I can’t buy in, the Eagles should key on him pretty much all night.
3. Pierre Thomas– Who thought Sproles would be the best option at RB for fantasy owners? Put your hand down, jerkoff, you’re lying.
4. Mark Ingram– The NO receivers do fine with a time share, but the Saints runners scare me.
5. Big Ben– I just think they run it too much for him to be a Top 20 guy.

Fantasy Focus Week 3: 2011 Fantasy Football Picks originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on September 24, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Focus…….
UP!!!

This is just our rankings. We’re doing these basically the same as last year, with a single addition. Every writer from the site will also rank their Top 3 players, regardless of position, every single week. We’ll call that THE BIG THREE. Like our rankings, we will keep track of that every week in an in-site competition.

Haven’t done the calculations for Week 2 yet, but my guess is that Red Red Ryan pulled off a heist. We’ll count the cards later.

Week 2 saw Papa lose The Big Three contest for the 2nd straight week, meaning that retirement winnings he’s been squandering away got a little bit lighter in the wallet, if you got me. Arse knows how to go big, and something tells me if he’s ever on the low side of a PW win, he’s going to have a tough time anteing up to make up for the big night he had on PW’s wallet last time around. Who will win in Week 3? We shall see!

-----------------------------------------------------THE BIG THREE: Week 3----------------------------------------------------

***Cam Newton has gotten on our rankings, something about his “most yards ever through 2 games of a career that couldn’t keep one of us away!***

2011 Week 3 QB Predictions

2011 Week 3 RB Predictions

2011 Week 3 WR Predictions

2011 Week 3 TE Predictions

2011 Week 3 D/ST Predictions

Week 3 Fantasy Football Rankings: 2011 Fantasy Projections originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on September 23, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Fantasy Football Rankings: Fantasy Focus Week 2 2011

Last week I hit some nice performances right on the head – of my Elite guys, only Calvin Johnson was a Top 5 performer, but both Phillip Rivers and Darren McFadden put up some nice numbers. Nobody really busted, but Charles didn’t look up to speed and Peterson didn’t score. My second group was mediocre at best, pretty poor in fact as nobody played great and Orton, Manningham, and Holmes all kind of fizzled. I hit a wall with James Jones in my sleepers, and Braylon Edwards wasn’t as good as I’d have liked, but three guys really stood out in that group as Beanie Wells, Tim Hightower, and Robert Meachem all played better than expected. Nate Burleson and Darren Sproles both were solid as super sleepers, but Sproles was the real gem of the weekend – finishing 7th amongst RBs is nice. I hit 4 of 5 in my “Sit’Em” category as only Miles Austin produced. Cassel was terrible, as was Mike Sims Walker, neither GB running back did much, either.

But hey, this is Week 2 and I have more tidbits for you to chew on. 5 groups of 5 with some chit chat about each pick. Good luck!

(Papa wants to let you know, if you want some old-school bad-ass fantasy advice, send him emails to….. PAPAWEIMER50@HOTMAIL.COM)

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week, looking for Top 5 at their position.

1. Peyton Hillis- The Browns will run and run and run it. The Colts will wear yards.
2. Phillip Rivers – Is it crazy to expect Rivers to outperform Tom the master of all that is football? I do… But I do!
3. Calvin Johnson – I don’t know if Revis island would be a scary place for CJ – he’s going to big brother the Chiefs all day.
4. Larry Fitzgerald – The Redskins’ CBs take chances, and Fitz will make them play – I think this will be a relatively close shootout as well, so extra points there.
5. Adrian Peterson – Because he’s dirty, that’s why.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week.

1. Michael Turner– I don’t think the Eagles can stop the run, Turner will get 25 carries this week if the Falcons know what’s good for them.
2. Ahmad Bradshaw- I like Bradshaw as a weapon to beat the Rams this week.
3. Tim Hightower– Love the “playing his old team” card – I’ll play it here.
4. Santana Moss – He’s got an even better match-up than last week, stick with me here.
5. Matthew Stafford – Seems too obvious, might even belong on the above group…

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or falling off the charts, but I still like them this week…

1. Mark Sanchez– The don’t list Mark as a starter in fantasy this week, but I bet he’s Top 8 going up against the Jags.
2. Darren Sproles –Lance Moore out. Colston out. Sproles in… He’s no longer a super sleeper after a stellar Week 1.
3. Devery Henderson– I’m gonna go ahead and expect good things from guys starting with Drew Brees at Q. Match-up isn’t good, but oh well.
4. Robert Meachem – Colston is out, I know the Bears are solid, but tough to pass up Rob any week he’s a top 2 target for Drew.
5. Rex Grossman– Cam Newton did the Cardinals dirty, same here for Sexy Rexy!

Super Sleepers: Undrafted guys that are usually unowned, but in a pinch put ‘em in coach!

1. Cadillac Williams– No Steven Jackson, if you need a guy, Caddy’s yer caddy… Not good.
2. Darren Sproles– Like Lance Moore used to gain value with Bush out, Sproles will gain more value with Lance hurting.
3. Daniel Thomas – If they can stick close to New England, it’s because they’re running it, and Thomas is the guy to carry it.
4. Willis McGahee – Oakland’s defense is not good, but I think their run defense is real bad. McGahee could be a 10-13 touch guy.
5. Nate Burleson – Nate has scored a few times in the preseason, if he’s healthy, he’s a nice play against Tampa Bay.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Dez Bryant – Tough to sit him, but that leg looked bad against the Jets. I pretty much blame his playing after the injury (so, the coaching staff) for the Cowboys losing Sunday Night.
2. Matt Ryan– I know you all loved him as a Top 10 guy this year, but he’ll hand off more this week, so huge numbers are likely out of the question. Not in the Top 15.
3. Pierre Thomas– Don’t really like him against a very tough Bears front, plus he’s in a weird time share.
4. Mike Thomas– ESPN, what are you doing? They expect 21 from Thomas, I’d divide that by 4 or 5…
5. Cam Newton– Tough to sit him after he dominated in Week 1, but I see a match-up that will be tough on Cam – not in the Top 15 this week.

Fantasy Focus Week 2 2011: Fantasy Picks originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on September 16, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Focus…….
UP!!!

This is just our rankings. We’re doing these basically the same as last year, with a single addition. Every writer from the site will also rank their Top 3 players, regardless of position, every single week. We’ll call that THE BIG THREE. Like our rankings, we will keep track of that every week in an in-site competition.

Papa Weimer (papaweimer50@hotmail.com) won the in-site contest this week, taking home the best rankings as he was 1st place in both Quarterbacks and Running backs total rankings. We are always amazed when that old man wins anything that requires intelligence… Wait, maybe I’m on to something here… Anyway, it was all made up for when Papa lost THE BIG THREE contest in Week 1, meaning he had to buy the winner all the booze he could drink… His response, good thing Red’s such a light weight. Fair enough. Ryan won though, must have been his red hair leading him through the darkness. This is what we have in Week 2…

COPY OF -----------------------------------------------------THE BIG THREE: Week 2----------------------------------------------------

***Could Week 2 possibly out fantasy Week 1? Probably not, but we’ll be better!***

2011 Week 2 QB Predictions

2011 Week 2 RB Predictions

2011 Week 2 WR Predictions

2011 Week 2 TE Predictions

2011 Week 2 D/ST Predictions

Who’d we leave out?

QB: Tony Romo – The 49ers defensive secondary isn’t that scary.
RB: Arian Foster – People expect him to play, he still scares us off with his hammy.
WR: Kenny Britt -He tore it up in Week 1, we still left him out.
TE: Kellen Winslow – could have a nice day.
D/ST: Texans – Houston had quite a Week 1 performance, but we think it was the O they played!

Week 2 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Fantasy Projections originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on September 15, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Focus…….
UP!!!

The Fantasy Focus is a little different this year, but it’s better than ever before. What we’re doing is breaking down last year’s article into 2 different articles, a little insight into 5 of my favorite players in 4 different categories, and 5 guys I don’t like regardless of ranking. That’s getting the title, Fantasy Focus, and that was written a couple days ago.

This is just our rankings. We’re doing these basically the same as last year, with a single addition. Every writer from the site will also rank their Top 3 players, regardless of position, every single week. We’ll call that THE BIG THREE. Like our rankings, we will keep track of that every week in an in-site competition.

How we grade our rankings out is based on how many points each fantasy player gets. We add those points up from a single category, and each of us gets rated out based on our finish (1st through 5th). The person with the smallest overall ranking gets the top prize, and down the list. So, if I score 120 quarterback points, and that’s the best score, I get 1 for the QB category. We add ‘em up, low man wins. Easy? You bet. Because I’m wordy, there might be some tidbits here and there, but we’re basically going for easy to read rankings to help you all out. Hope it does! Good luck in Week 1, where every owner thinks they have a shot at the elusive fantasy title….

------------------------------------------------THE BIG THREE: Week 1 RANKINGS--------------------------------------------

Red Red Ryan goes with an all princess front line, taking quarterbacks to do all his damage. He has flag football dreams as a QB, and right off the bat he’s showing the world his true colors. Arse was a little more well rounded, taking his best match-up from each position. Papa continued his RB love, but added Vick to the bottom because “he’s one of the best running backs in the league, he just gets to pass a lot too” – fair enough. There’s my picks, very similar to my Top 3 in the Fantasy Focus. Nate went with Vick and a couple receivers, the only guy to leave out RBs from his Top 3. He says, “It’s a throwing league, and those guys catch it.” I’m excited to see how the scheming picks up as this competition goes forward – we’re playing for drinks (which is cheap for me, but gets real spendy with Papa) – the loser each week buys the winner’s drinks on the night of the winner’s choice – drinks unlimited, but there’s always NEXT week. The middle three play for free! If there’s a tie, the guy who has the highest scoring player in their top spot wins. If that’s a tie the heaviest guy wins (the big guys out-voted the littlest guy) – the 2nd tie breaker will always go Papa, Josh, Lucky, Red, then Nate…

***Nothing Like Opening Weekend!***

2011 Week 1 QB Predictions

2011 Week 1 RB Predictions

2011 Week 1 WR Predictions

2011 Week 1 TE Predictions

2011 Week 1 D/ST Predictions

Who’d we leave out?

QB: Eli Manning – big plays against the Redskins and a QB that starts out hot.
RB: Arian Foster – we were all worried about his hammy, if he plays, he’ll kill the Colts.
WR: Kenny Britt – nobody in JAX can guard this guy, that’s for certain.
TE: Greg Olsen – could be a go to guy for a young QB, and Arizona’s not great on D.
D/ST: Jets – Nobody picked the Jets? Hmm… Apparently we all believe the Dallas hype????

Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings: 2011 Fantasy Projections originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on September 8, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Fantasy Football Rankings: Fantasy Focus Week 1

For those that aren’t loyal followers from years’ past, the Fantasy Focus has a bunch of useable stuff for everyone in the fantasy realm – rather it’s making a decision between two super-hero players or picking somebody up at the last moment to fill a spot, I have some good stuff for you here. If you want something different than your normal host site’s rankings, we will have that too. In fact, we have 5 guys that put together their rankings just for you – Top 5 for each major position, and while that used to be a part of this article, we’re breaking it up this week to see if that’s easier/better – that article will come later in the day.

(Papa wants to let you know, if you want some old-school bad-ass fantasy advice, send him emails to….. PAPAWEIMER50@HOTMAIL.COM)

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week, looking for Top 5 at their position.

1. Darren McFadden – Broncos defensive line, McFadden healthy and ready to go, ain’t nothing wrong with that.
2. Phillip Rivers – The Minnesota Vikings defense really tailed off last season. Rivers didn’t.
3. Calvin Johnson – CJ caught 10 balls for 152 yards against the Bucs last year – that’s a lot of looks, same secondary.
4. Jamaal Charles – Buffalo doesn’t come around every week, Jamaal turns it on for the regular season.
5. Adrian Peterson – San Diego lost some on the D-line, I think AP has a nice day.

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week.

1. Brandon Lloyd– The Raiders will miss Nnamdi, as soon as Week 1.
2. Santonio Holmes – The Cowboys will bring pressure with Rob Ryan, but they don’t have the secondary to lock Holmes up.
3. Mario Manningham– The Redskins have solid talent at corner and a decent secondary, but they can get beat for the big play – Manningham is a big play guy.
4. Santana Moss – I don’t think Moss gets the credit he deserves. He had a great 2010, and the Giants secondary is injured.
5. Kyle Orton – I think Orton is a lock Top 10 guy this week, he’s ranked below that just about everywhere else.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or falling off the charts, but I still like them this week…

1. Beanie Wells– Christopher gets his chance at the full time starting gig in Week 1 against Carolina, lucky!
2. Tim Hightower –TH looked good in the preseason and the Giants’ defense is full of injuries.
3. Braylon Edwards– Braylon was a real low draft pick, but I think he impresses. Seattle struggles against big WRs.
4. Robert Meachem – Jacobs gets the start, and the Jaguars haven’t been shredded in four games or so – they’re due.
5. James Jones– I’m excited to see Jones play this season – I think this year could be the one!

Super Sleepers: Undrafted guys that are usually unowned, but in a pinch put ‘em in coach!

1. Alex Smith– Seattle’s secondary gives any opposing QB a chance to succeed.
2. Darren Sproles– Like Lance Moore used to gain value with Bush out, Sproles will gain more value with Lance hurting.
3. Daniel Thomas – If they can stick close to New England, it’s because they’re running it, and Thomas is the guy to carry it.
4. Willis McGahee – Oakland’s defense is not good, but I think their run defense is real bad. McGahee could be a 10-13 touch guy.
5. Nate Burleson – Nate has scored a few times in the preseason, if he’s healthy, he’s a nice play against Tampa Bay.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Ryan Grant –The Saints’ additions up the middle of that D-line makes running tough
2. James Starks– I don’t like either Green Bay RB on Thursday Night.
3. Miles Austin– A little dinged up, going against Revis Island – not the best early season match-up.
4. Mike Sims-Walker– #1 WR in St. Lous?  Yep. Talented? Yep. Terrible match-up? You betcha!
5. Matt Cassel– Pretty solid match-up on paper, but the Chiefs will be running it too much for a Matt C big day.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings: 2011 Week 1 Fantasy Focus originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on September 7, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.

I’m at it again. Somehow, someway, I continue to fight my own oldness and blast father time in the face with new ideas and an acute sense of fantasy know how. I’m wild, no doubt about it, and my antics are often unnecessary, but when it gets down to the nitty gritty, the “i need an answer, a reason, a bone” to get you through your fantasy week, by all means, I’m your guy. All you have to do is email me at PAPAWEIMER50@HOTMAIL.COM and I’ll get back to you as soon as possible – almost always that day, in fact – because I’m old, and rarely leave the house. Plus I have internet hooked up to my 60inch big screen so I can see the dang words.

Before I get into answering this week’s questions (or sharing my answers with you all) I have some good news. This year I get to post some contests here and there, and I get to divvy out the winnings as well. This is the first contest I’ve ever run and so I’m going to do something fun.

Fantasy Knuckleheads is sponsoring my BEST Team Name contest. The winner will receive season long access to their Fantasy Football Draft and In-season Package.

Prize: Free season long subscription to Fantasy Knuckleheads’ Dominator Package, a $24 value.

Contest: The first contest is an easy one. All I want you to do is send the best fantasy football team name you’ve ever had to PAPAWEIMER50@HOTMAIL.COM. I’ll give you until Friday, September 2nd to get me your name . I’ll post my favorites in my next article, and announce my winner.

The Catch: There’s no catch. The Contest is free. Just send me an email with a team name, and that enters you right into the contest. I like witty, I like funny. Good luck!

Now for the Q&A

Jason BD in Indianapolis writes, “This is my first season as a fantasy football guy. I’ve always frowned on the idea of rooting for anybody but Colts. But this season my son roped me into his fantasy league, and I found your site when looking for help. A couple questions: If you wanted Peyton Manning for sure, where would you draft him? How about Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai, and Pierre Garcon? Dallas Clark? Also, Do you think I could win with all Colts? Thanks!”

Oh Jason, fantasy and home team pride are a tough combination to unleash in any sort of winning matter. I’ll give you my answers, places you will almost surely be able to get your Colts, but I would do my best to mix in some top talent around your guys. You’ll never beat your son in fantasy with a team full of Colts, I can promise you that! I think you can get Peyton Manning pretty easily in the 2nd round. Even the 3rd round if you’re a Top 4 pick in the fantasy draft. These questions about his neck are perfect for you getting him later. No earlier than the 2nd round, though – Peyton as a 1st round pick is too high a price to pay. I think you can get Reggie Wayne in the 3rd round, maybe even the 4th. He goes about 35th overall – and rarely before the Top 30. Like Manning, his stock is falling a bit because of his QB’s health. You can get Dallas in the 5th round. His stock isn’t falling as much, which makes sense. In fact, I expect Manning to play at least 14 games this season which means drafting him at a discount is a great deal. I think Garcon goes a little high, but he’s safe to get around the 8th round. Probably 9th, but if you need him on your squad, the 8th is it. Addai in the 10th is a pretty safe place to get him. So, if you really love these guys, I’d probably hope for a draft that looks like this….

1. Chris Johnson  2. Peyton Manning 3. Reggie Wayne 4. DeSean Jackson  5. Dallas Clark  6. Felix Jones  7. Mario Manningham 8. Pierre Garcon  9. Eli Manning 10. Joseph Addai… And so on. I hope you reconsider, check out our TIERED RANKINGS, but if not – shoot for some big play makers in the rest of your picks – and NO COLTS in Round 1!

Corey Singer asks, “You say you’ve done 7 drafts so far, that’s nothing compared to my 47 – however, you might be paying better attention than me, who do you think is the guy going as the biggest steal in the Top 25 picks thus far?

Corey, I’d say that’s a tough one, but it’s not. I’d give you a quick answer and make this entire thing a lot easier, but that’s not really my style, so I’m not. However, if you want to cut down a few minutes reading this deal, go ahead and scroll down to the bottom. If you had asked me the biggest steal in the Top 35 picks, I might have answered somebody like Vincent Jackson – VJ is healthy, playing for a free agent deal, has one of the best young QBs in the business on a team that likes to throw. He’s a freak of nature and in the preseason he looks good. He’s going after 30 in all but 2 of my 7 drafts, and I think he’s a Top 5 WR. If you had said in all of fantasy, that would have really opened up the flood gates, and I would have said that Lance Kendricks (I’m projecting Top 7 TE, and he’s going undrafted in most leagues – unless I pick him), Donovan McNabb (he’s going after 160 almost always – he’s in a better offense that’s more shaped around what he’s always done – and defenses will have to honor the run-game), or Mario Manningham (he’s going too late, he’s going to be a beast as the #2 in New York). But since you said Top 25, that made it pretty easy. Maurice Jones-Drew is thievery at pick 18-23 where I’ve gotten him three times. He’s expected to play in preseason Week 4, he’s a super consistent TD scoring machine that does everything. And someone recently took Jahvid Best over him. Please. MJD is a Top 8 fantasy pick, and if he’s not, steal him!

Seb from Australia writes, “This’ll be my first season of fantasy NFL. I live out in Australia, so don’t get to watch many games, but have enjoyed following the sport for the last 2 -3 years, albeit fairly loosely.This year though, a friend as cajoled me into joining his league; it’s a $20 buy in, winner take all. My ego dictates I must win, so my question to you is, when it comes time to draft, in what order of value do i place RBs, WRs, QBs and TEs?”

Seb, Thanks for the email! Over the years I’ve certainly had some thoughts on which positions you should go for first, but no matter what I decide, it always changes on draft day. I think nabbing RBs and WRs early is very important, but the value in the draft makes all the difference. I try to tier my rankings so that I know I’m always getting the best positional value and still getting good overall value. I like to start trends. Like in Round 5, if none of the TEs have been drafted yet, it’s a good time to get your favorite guy, maybe Antonio Gates or Dallas Clark or Jermichael Finley – because it’s always better to start a trend than grab on the back of one. I’m not saying go get a TE in the 4th round, not at all, I’m just saying, if it’s good value at the time, it’s not bad to be a trend setter. (but never get a defense or a kicker early in the draft – never…ever!) I still think RB is the most important position, though WR has made a run at the top spot over the last few years. RBs touch the ball more than anyone else except for QBs (but you usually only get 1 QB in your starting line-up). Because of that, they have the most consistent production and that’s huge. If you can get 2 great consistent RBs with your first 2 picks (AP, CJ, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, MJD, McCoy, Mendenhall, Steven Jackson) I say go for it. If you can only Cajole a singe one, go ahead and take a star WR in Round 2 and get one of the next tier running backs in Round 3 or Round 4. Good Luck!

Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Drafts and a Big Fat Contest originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on August 29, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Sometimes I get awesome teams, sometimes I end up wondering “how did I draft that team?” but that’s just the way drafts work, I guess. More than any other question, when people write into the site, they ask, “Which positions should I be drafting in certain rounds?” Honestly, I go into a draft trying to find value at every slot, and rarely am I trying to pick a certain position in a certain round. I’ve picked WRs and RBs in the first round depending on who has been picked and who is left. I’ve never picked a QB in the first round, mainly because there is usually only 1 starting QB on each fantasy team and there are 7 very good options, plus a bunch of other guys that I’d be okay starting – Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Freeman, Matthew Stafford, even Sam Bradford and, gulp, Kyle Orton to name a few. So I don’t see much value in going with a QB in round 1.

This article is a reenactment of my perfect draft. When everything went my way. When I waited and struck gold, when I took a chance and the chips fell perfectly. I’ll explain how everything went my way. Here it is, The Best “Real” Team ever.

I picked 1st, not usually a position I’m looking to be at, but hey, you rarely (never) get to pick your draft slot. With my first pick, I’m choosing between Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, and Chris Johnson (if I don’t think there’s a chance he holds out). I eliminated CJ, because I grade him right about equal with Peterson and Foster, and I don’t need that question. I end up going with Peterson because he’s a freak of nature and I think Ben Tate gets some of Foster’s carries this season – or at least that’s how I justify it. To be quite honest, I don’t think you can miss with that decision. Here’s the rest of Round 1.

Round 1

Round 2

As you can see, it’s a 12 team league, so already I’m not expecting to have some all star team. When I’m looking at the 24th pick I’m hoping for one of my RBs in my Top 3 Tiers or a Top 5 WR – unless Vick or Rodgers were still on the board, I wouldn’t take a QB. As you can see, there was a Top 5 WR left on the board. AJ, CJ, Roddy, Fitz and Nicks were all gone, but Greg Jennings (4th) was on board. To my smiling surprise, Steven Jackson (12th, 4th in Tier 3) was also there for the taking. Two of my elite players at picks 24 and 25 and even if the draft went terribly wrong from here, I’d be just fine…

Round 3

But it doesn’t. The draft goes GREAT from here. The one question I had when going RB/WR with my 2nd and 3rd picks was if there would be a Top 7 QB left on the board when I picked 23 picks later. My answer was no. As I mentioned above, I want a Top 7 guy because I think they are that much better than everyone else. I’m stunned when 4 of those guys were left on the board through the first half of Round 4. I’m gonna get Tom Brady! Picked. Okay, no biggy, I’ll get Manning. Picked. Rivers. Picked… Dang! But wait, this is the perfect draft, I’m telling you, because despite needs at QB, nobody takes Tony Romo. I get one of my Elite 7 with the last pick of Round 4.

Round 4

Round 5 is where the choice got interesting. Normally I would just take the best WR or RB here and smile all the way to the bank – but I was hitting it big here so I reconsidered as my minute and thirty second time limit ticked down. If I went WR, I was choosing between Holmes, Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Manningham, Britt, Boldin, and Steve Smith (CAR). If I went RB, I was choosing between Jon Stewart, Ryan Grant, Fred Jackson, Beanie Wells, and Marshawn Lynch. None of those guys are elite in my book. I asked myself if I’d have a chance at a top tier TE with my next pick. I don’t need a top guy, but the answer was a surefire NO, even though a TE hadn’t been taken yet. So, I grabbed the most elite player at his position left on the board, Antonio Gates.

Round 5

Again I waited all those picks, and I saw a couple of my guys go off the board, Ocho went late and I was excited that he might fall. Percy Harvin as well, I like him more than most. But I was still elated to get a #1 RB who was very good, Ryan Grant. I know Grant was out for a full year, but hey, he was out for a FULL year. That’s better than going through that injury 7 months ago. I think his upside is #2 fantasy RB and I’m getting him as my flex in the end of Round 6 – awesome. Then I’m choosing between a couple of the WRs I almost grabbed with my last pick. Steve Smith and Manningham… I choose Smith because he’s one of my favorite players. Yes, even I do that sometimes….8 Rounds in the books and my team is loaded!

Round 6

Round 7

Round 8 goes by relatively quickly and apparently nobody believes in Manningham like I do, because he’s still sitting for me with a bow on his head when I pick him at the end of the Round. Guys like Robert Meachem, Mike Williams (Sea), Steve Smith (Phi) and Malcom Floyd have already been chosen, and honestly, in a big money league, I probably would have taken Mario over Steve Smith. There might not be another feeling (in fantasy) better than deciding between two players, waiting 23 picks, then picking the same player you were a coin toss away from taking before. Glorious.

Round 8

At the start of Round 9, there isn’t a ton left that I’m enthusiastic about. LT, Hightower (before he became the most likely starter for Washington), James Starks (who maybe I should have taken to handcuff the GB running situation), a couple guys who had good years a long time ago in Plax, Roy Williams, and Deion Branch, and a rookie named A.J. Green. Seriously? A.J. Green? The best WR prospect to come to the NFL since Calvin Johnson…. You bet! I know Carson would rather pick blueberries and throw cantaloupes through tires than play for the Bengals, and I get it. I also know that it looks like another red head (two red heads don’t make a right) Andy Dalton (the rookie from TCU) is taking over in Cincinnati – which means a passing dynamo the Bengals will not be realistic. But so what. He’s the surefire #1 WR on a team that will always be losing. Plus, he’s flat out elite in the whole talent area. I’ll take my chances in Round 9.

Round 9

Round 10

Once again I wait forever, but I don’t see too many guys (maybe Joseph Addai, I guess, but just as a bye week guy) that I like running off the board until Matthew Stafford and Sam Bradford go back to back – I love both those guys and all their upside potential, especially as #2 QBs. Mike Thomas goes, and he’s another guy I was interested in, though honestly how interesting can the air attack in Jacksonville be? Tic-tac-toe – that’s how interesting. So I don’t fret a bit, especially when I get Joe Flacco and Braylon Edwards in back to back picks. The 12th pick in Round 10, and Braylon in Round 11 – are you kidding me? This can’t get any better. I LOVE when guys like Flacco change in value so much from one year to another in the complete opposite direction than they should be. Flacco was everyone’s darling in 2010. He was going too high because Boldin was going to make him elite. This year he picks up Lee Evans and has a healthier offensive line, and sure enough, he’s falling behind guys he outscored last year – and he’s young, and has a cannon – oh, and a good team. Come on, guys, he’s going to get better! And Edwards, I know I’m taking a shot, but this is a great deal for a super talented guy that is going to play for a coach that he loves, in a place where he will end up being the #1 receiver, and to boot, a place that he wanted to play for to prove himself – so much so that he took less money to go there. This is awesome. When Michael Crabtree and his princess boots got picked with the first selection of Round 6 I typed into the chat window, “I’d rather have Braylon Edwards and he plays on the same team.” I thought I was the only one that felt this way until 3 or 4 guys chimed in, me too… So I get a guy that most people would rather have, but 5+ rounds later. Brilliant.

Round 11

I finished off my draft with two high upside guys. If James Jones ends up getting some of Driver’s looks, he’ll be a steal. He’s better than Driver right now, so all Donald has to do is lose another half step and the difference will be so great that Jones starts producing like his new contract expects. Roy Helu Jr. could end up being the RB in Washington, and if he does, he’s going to be solid, because everyone that is the RB for a Shanny team produces. Then a defense (I choose the Cowboys over the Patriots, but I slightly regret that now, because I am crazy about all the moves and young kids the Pats made/have – but Dallas is very talented as well – plus it’s a D, what gives?). And I took Alex Henery, the Philly youngster who will undoubtedly capitalize on a Philly offense that produces big plays then stalls out from time to time. FG central!

Round 12

Round 13

Round 14

Round 15

So there’s my perfect draft. I got everyone after when I would have taken them had I somehow stockpiled earlier picks in each round. You can’t get all the greatest players on your team, don’t be confused, but you can have the perfect draft. It was top notch from top to bottom, has great balance, sure things, and upside galore! I hope your draft goes this well, then we can celebrate our championships in unison!

Here’s my full roster, with the position of the player and the Round that I drafted that player on the left – their name, of course, is on the right. At least now I have a perfect draft so when people ask me which rounds they should draft people in I could use this as a template… if everyone in that league drafted like everyone in my league… Good Luck!!!

LuckyLesterDotCom

My Perfect Draft: 2011 NFL Fantasy Football Draft Kit originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on August 26, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Good, Better, Best

It’s time. Drafts are really starting to get serious as the preseason winds down. Some of the preseason action has given us reason to believe in the unheralded youngsters while there have been some serious stars absent enough for the fantasy folks to start worrying. Do you draft Peyton Manning the same spot you would have with his injury uncertainty? How about Maurice Jones Drew and his knee dilemma? Are handcuffs more important now? I’m not here to draw out all the scenarios, the answers to all the questions, but I’ve definitely come across some differences in opinion.

The mother ship, ESPN, is the biggest fantasy center around. So I like to use their rankings/projections as a common stomping ground. In this article, I’ll take three players that I like, players that I think are fairly even, put them in projection order from good to best, list their ESPN ranking next to their name, and explain which guys I like better than the others. I’d give you an example, but I might as well just get down to business. Hopefully this helps on draft day.

Peyton Manning (5), Philip Rivers (3), Tom Brady (4): In our tiered rankings, it’s Manning ahead of Rivers, but the preseason has shown me a couple things. One, I’m worried about the Colts. They have been nothing short of pathetic in two preseason games, and while they usually stink in that area, and while they always stink with Manning out, it still scares me. Then Manning’s injury question marks are there too. Rivers and Brady are starting in Week 1, I like them more. I’m taking Brady over Rivers not because he has more weapons or his team is that much better – I just think the coaching staff in New England is better. I expect Ryan Matthews to run it a little more this season – and like clockwork, I expect Brady to continue to huck it. The Patriots are setting up for an amazing season. I expect great things from Tom.

Matt Ryan (11), Josh Freeman (10), Matthew Stafford (17): Listen, I’m not here to play the what if game. I know Stafford has been injury prone and Matt Ryan has been proclaimed the next great arm. I know the Freeman has only begun to come into his own, and that many people expect a step backwards. I know that Ryan comes with “no risk” and a loaded machine gun clip of weapons (Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner) but I don’t know – I just expect him to be the same, maybe even a small step back this season. I think Freeman stays the same, and I may be shooting for the moon with Stafford loans, but hey, if Matthew stays healthy, he’s going to be reeling in the touchdowns!

DeAngelo Williams (16), Legarrette Blount (25), Ryan Matthews (22): Let’s not get crazy here, I don’t hate DeAngelo or think that Blount will take a step back  – nope, in fact, I think all three of these guys are GREAT VALUE on draft day. I was just in a draft in a good league where Matt Forte went for $30 and Matthews went for $15 – I’d be stunned if they are not within a few points of each other by season’s end. I was the same guy that wasn’t crazy about Matthews last year – but he looked like a star to me, especially late. Blount is a beast. That pretty much says it all, but hopefully he stays true to the task. I think Williams is a top-notch running back, and while J-Stew still sits in Carolina, the Panthers brass obviously thought Williams was #1 material. They paid him like he is. I think he’ll be better than many expect, but not compared to Blount and Matthews. All 3 will be in the top 20, but not in ESPN’s order.

Willis McGehee (44), Ben Tate (81), Roy Helu Jr.(62): In my tiered rankings I have Helu above McGehee above Tate, but I think I’ve moved Helu Jr. ahead of Tate based off his chances to be the man where he’s at. I think Tate is the most talented, but talent doesn’t always go with upside in fantasy football. If Helu Jr. gets the nod in Washington he has the size, speed, and running style to flourish in a Shanahan scheme. Of the three he’s the closest to a starting gig. Tate looks like a stud to me, but Arian Foster is a stud. Best handcuff out there? Possibly. The reason I go Tate over McGehee is upside. Willis certainly has something left, and Moreno hasn’t been too impressive, so it’s possible he gets a big chunk of carries – but I don’t see greatness in the cards, and drafting late I’m all about upside!

Dwayne Bowe (10), DeSean Jackson (13), Vincent Jackson (12): I’m not crazy about Bowe. I get scared when a guy gets most of his fantasy points in 5 games smack dab in the middle of the season and completely disappears against top corners. What he has going for him is that he’s a beast and the defenses going up against the Chiefs are worrying about him after that rushing attack. He gets the ball, he makes a guy miss, there’s not much back there to stop him. But he’s a distant third in this group. DeSean Jackson has a ton of upside, but he’s a scary WR sometimes. He is a ghost in some games, plus he’s playing this season with a frown on his face because of his salary size. I still think he’s an upgrade from Bowe, but he’s no Vincent. VJ should get back into the Top 8 this season. He’s a freak of nature and Philip Rivers will go to him 1st. With a decent rushing attack and a TE that everyone has to look out for, Jackson will get his best season in the books!

Need some more projections? Check out my TIERED RANKINGS!

Good, Better, Best: 2011 NFL Fantasy Draft Kit originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on August 22, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Back at it again. A week of emails have come in and I continue to answer them with my best foot forward – whatever the hell that means. I wish I could answer them with my best back forward – I’d trade a couple retirement checks for a best back right about now. Anyway, below are some answer to some email questions. Feel free to join in on the fun and question the king of the fantasy realm – me and Tolkien, right? Get to me at papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I’ll get back to you as prompt as possible.

DBM in one of the Dakotas asks, “How will Marshawn and Sydney Rice do in Seattle this year?”

I think the Seahawks will be much better offensively, and it all centers around the offensive line. James Carpenter is a good RT prospect that does everything pretty well, he’s not a liability in pass or run blocking, and is above average at both. Robert Gallery is a great addition as well, probably the best OG on the market. The Hawks had the worst offensive line in football last year, and now with rookies and 2nd year guys, plus a big FA addition, they’ll be better. I like that Tarvaris Jackson comes over as a leader, one of the most knowledgeable players on the team about the offense they’ll be running in Seattle (because, like him, it came from Minnesota). As a leader, and teacher, he’ll have much more confidence to what’s going on, and I think that will help him a ton – because remember, he was always the guy they dumbed down the offense for when he was in – that does nothing for your confidence. You ask little of someone, you get little in return. I don’t know where Rice is going in drafts, but as my #3 receiver I like his upside. He’ll lead the Hawks in receiving this year.

David in Minnesota writes, “I am in a keeper league and I can keep up to 4 players.If I keep 4 – I will lose my first 4 picks, if I keep 3 then I will lose my first 3 picks etc. Next bit of info I will be drafting 11th in each round. It is a snake draft without reversing. Here are the players I am trying to figure out who to keep and how many. What do you think? (Brady, MJD, Bradshaw, Best, Sid Rice, Stevie Johnson, Colston, Welker)

I would probably only keep 2, maybe 3 guys on your squad. The only reason I would keep 3 is because your pick is so late in Round 3 – but so early in Round 4, so you have to take a chance and hope you can get a better 4th player. Brady and MJD (unless you trade for Charles) are sure thing keepers, obviously. They are both Top 2 round players, and so you keep them. After that, I don’t see any given there. I think Best is your next best upside player, and while I ranked him as a 4th round guy prior to LeShoure’s season ending injury, he might be a nicer risk as a 3rd rounder now. I would consider Colston over Best, if you think the draft will be more RB heavy than WR heavy – they are both very close to me, but I’d go with Best without knowledge of other rosters. Welker, maybe, but he’s limited in non-ppr leagues, and I think he’s right around Colston’s grade, with not as much upside. Because you’re one of the highest 4th round picks, take a chance and see if you can’t upgrade at WR. Good luck!

David gets another questions off in a lengthy email… “Would you think of a trade for Jamaal Charles, giving up MJD and one of my receivers? A guy in our league has no receivers…”

It’s pretty well documented that I picked Charles as the #1 back in fantasy for the upcoming season. Since I don’t think you should keep any of your receivers, I’d say yeah, jump in and make that deal. Lucky says “no don’t do it, MJD is more consistent” but hey, he says it’s close, and my feeling has always been my feeling, and since this isn’t “Ask Lucky Lester” I’m pretty sure I’m gonna say what I want. Charles has the upside and the offensive line to be the best running back in fantasy. He’s lightning quick and doesn’t take big hits. MJD doesn’t have his upside, if you can get him and all it’s really gonna cost you is MJD (who I rank behind Charles, Peterson, C Johnson, Foster, and Ray Rice) then do it!

Ask Papa Weimer #2: 2011 NFL Draft Kit originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on August 9, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.