NFL Free Agents: Ladainian Tomlinson, Brady Quinn

Here’s some more thoughts on NFL Free Agents or Trades and those players signing with new teams. There was a couple big time moves on Sunday, at least some big names in new uniforms!

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, New York Jets: After it was almost a forgone conclusion that Tomlinson would end up as “1a” in Minnesota after his visit with the Vikings, the former NFL MVP flipped the switch and headed to New York. A ton of people are questioning this move, claiming that the Vikings have a better chance at a title and that they could use him in an offense that works with his skills better. However, I’m with LT on this one. I see a plethora of reasons for the former Charger to head to New York.

Tomlinson would be choosing between Brad Childress and Rex Ryan. Please, as a player, that’s an easy decision. He’d also be choosing between a team that may or may not have a starting quarterback (Minny and Brett Favre) and a team that has a promising youngster (Mark Sanchez). If Brett was a sure thing returner, I think LT would have a tougher choice, but it’s closer to 50-50 than a sure thing, and the Jets win there too. And then there’s the biggest thing. The Jets have plenty of carries to go around with that run-heavy offensive scheme, and a much better and younger offensive line. Yes, that’s right, the Jets have one of, if not the best offensive line in the league. That team is stacked, and I know LT watched some film on the Jets and their running lanes. I know he saw the big holes first hand when New York upset the Chargers in the playoffs last year. A player’s coach, a young promising offense, and the best offensive line in the league. It’s a wonder why he picked New York, eh? I’ve always figured LT to be a smart guy!

Brady Quinn, QB, Denver Broncos: In a not-so-surprising move, the Broncos traded for Brady Quinn. Quinn has shown some ability in the past, and for a 6th round pick and a late conditional next season, the trade makes a lot of sense for a team heading into the draft with Kyle Orton, Chris Simms, and a youngster. Quinn might never fulfill his potential, but Josh McDaniels obviously sees something in the Notre Dame kid, and with ties to Charlie Weiss, you never know, he might be able to get that something producing on the field.

NFL Free Agency Signings: Nate Burleson, Julius Peppers, Cromartie

It’s still Thursday where I’m living, and some big names are already on the move. Some haven’t “officially” signed yet, but they are as good as gold, one wasn’t even a free agent, but he’s been traded, and there’s so much more to come. I’ll update this a few times during the day as new signings are made public. Here’s what I think so far.

Nate Burleson, Detroit Lions: The former Seahawk, and Viking, is going to be a great second option for a Lions team that really didn’t have one. They are a young team looking to find some help for their franchise quarterback and one of the best #1 receivers in the NFL, Calvin Johnson. Nate is definitely that. He’s explosive, dynamic, and if he can stay healthy, he’ll turn single coverage into numerous touchdowns for the Lions next season. It’s a big deal, 25 million over 5 years with 11 million guaranteed, but Nate is a big play waiting to happen, and should be a big deal for the Lions. He rejoins Scott Linehan, his offensive coordinator, and that could be good for fantasy owners as Scott was the play caller during Burleson’s most productive season in the NFL.

Antonio Cromartie, New York Jets: The San Diego Chargers didn’t want Cromartie and his antics back with the team, and they got a 2011 3rd Round Pick in exchange for the poor tackling cover corner. That pick could end up being a 2nd rounder if Antonio meets playing time bonuses and the Jets succeed to a certain level. Cromartie’s ability level should continue to make the Jets one of the scariest defenses in the league, especially for opposing quarterbacks. A heavy pass rush and elite corners doesn’t make for an easy day. Already a top fantasy defense, the Jets just got better.

Julius Peppers, Chicago Bears: I have a feeling, that when I wake up this morning, Peppers will be a Chicago Bear for sure. I’m so sure that I’m going to go on and list the ups and downs of this signing. Chicago has to sign Peppers, and they’ll give him plenty of money to make it happen. JP is one of the most talented players in the league, he does freakish things and is as special as they get on the defensive line – but he doesn’t always have his motor revved to it’s highest potential, and I think Pep would be a scary guy to sign to a huge contract, both in cost and length. He’s a freak of nature, and maybe he’ll come in competitive and wanting to prove he’s worth the dollar. The Bears need some big names, but many people think Pep would be best as a 3-4 rushing OLB, and I agree – so in Chicago he’ll still be playing a 4-3 end. Hmm. I like Peppers, he’s one of my favorite guys to watch when he’s on his game – but is this a move that makes the Bears an elite defense? I don’t think so.

Peppers has officially signed. It’s a 6 year deal and I’m not sure about the total money, but think a lot. It’s said that the deal could pay him 40 million over the first 3 seasons. Look at the Bears spending money like they’re the Yankees….

Chester Taylor, Chicago Bears: Okay, now I’m guessing a little bit – but the first place Chester is flying to is Chicago, so I’m at freedom to at least mention this as a possibility. This would be a dumb move for both parties, but with Martz running an offense you just never know what stuff is going to go down. Matt Forte is a young back with solid vision that catches the ball very well out of the back-field. Chester Taylor might be a little better as a receiver, but Forte can obviously do the job, and for a team with so many needs, why would they waste free agent dollars on and older running back when you have a young guy that was great during his first season? I’d love to see Taylor go to a place where he would get starter carries, and I just don’t see him beating Forte out of at least a time share. Dumb, da-dumb, dumb, dumb… Hopefully Taylor’s plane gets delayed and has to fly a messed up detour to Seattle – he’d be a good pairing with Justin Forsett in that backfield. And

Chicago is officially Chester’s destination, what do you know. I think this is bad for both parties (in terms of fantasy stuff, and touches for Taylor, and bang for the Bears’ buck) but what do I know? I know that Chester does a lot of things well, and will certainly push Matt Forte, but he does seem like an excessive signing given that the Bears have a pretty successful 2-year player at running back, Matt Forte… The deal is for 12.5 million over 4 years with 7.5 million guaranteed. Bears = NFL’s Yankees, weird.

Brandon Manumaleuna, Chicago Bears: Giving away all their draft picks for Cutler was something I thought was stupid, but trading away a talented young pass catching tight end like Greg Olsen because your offensive coordinator (who will almost surely be fired after the season) doesn’t throw to tight ends is just plain idiotic. However, with the likely signing of Manumaleuna, that looks like what Chicago is up to. The big, bad, blocking tight end formerly of the Chargers is headed to Chicago first thing on Friday, and he’s a perfect fit for what Martz wants out of his TEs. You saw how Vernon Davis never did anything in Martz’s offense, and you see him now? Olsen is likely to be moved, and Manu is liked to be a Bear. I’ll update as soon as I know for sure. This opens up passes for Bears receivers, that’s for sure.

Olsen was one of the best receiving options in Chicago last year, and if he’s out of the picture, expect more balls to go the way of WRs, and running backs as well. Manumaleuna gets a 5 year deal with the Bears, it’s official – and let the Greg Olsen trade rumors begin. I don’t think it’s smart to drop your best players that don’t perfectly fit into your soon to be fired-one-and-done offensive coordinator’s plans- but hey, the Bears are trying to spend as much money as they can, and they’re winning!

Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers: The Panthers may have lost the services of Julius Peppers, one of the best defensive ends in the game, but they got rid of Jake Delhomme too – brilliant. Delhomme will cost the team 12 million bucks this year, but hey, that’s a bargain as far as I’m concerned, especially when you consider the fact that they’ll be saving money the next time the salary cap comes into play. Remember, this is an uncapped year, so I don’t think Delhomme will be the first overpaid guy that gets the axe. It’s redemption time for owners’ bad signings. And yes, that probably means Matt Moore, the young QB that finished the year as the Panthers #1, will probably be the guy in Carolina.

And as Jake has shown, any quarterback throwing to Steve Smith can put up good numbers on any given day. Apparently, the Panthers’ head coach, John Fox (also known for his team’s bad play calling) was seen crying after letting Delhomme go. I’m not sure what kind of tears they were, but I’m willing to bet that Steve Smith’s ribs aren’t sad about the decision.

Gary Brackett, Indianapolis Colts: Brackett quite possibly never became a free agent, per say, but he was going to, and the Colts decided it was best to resign one of their most consistent players from last year’s underrated defense. Bracket was signed to a 5 year extension worth 33 million and keeps the Colts defense improving. This group has some good young talent and some awesome veterans, and should be a good group moving forward.

Leonard Weaver, Philadelphia Eagles: When you sign a full back to a 3 year 10 million dollar deal with over half the money guaranteed, you are planning to use that player as more than just a full back. I promise. The running back catches the ball very well out of the backfield and runs hard between the tackles. I like Shady McCoy, no doubt, but Weaver is going to be drafted 10 rounds after the sophomore back out of Pitt, and I think their value will be a lot closer to even.

Kyle Vanden Bosch, Detroit Lions: Well, as it turns out the first big name defensive lineman to sign wasn’t Julius Peppers after all. Nope, Kyle Vanden Bosch makes the move to Detroit to try and help the Lions defense pull themselves out of the gutter. Vanden Bosch was one of the best defensive linemen on the market, and he stacks up good against both the pass and the run. For a team that needed a lot of help improving their roster, the Lions have already made some big time moves that should help them get back to respectability.

A.J. Feeley, St. Louis Rams: This is a little bit under the radar, but Feeley signed with the Rams this morning. It is likely that another quarterback will start for the Rams, either a #1 pick like Sam Bradford or a surly old vet via a trade. But right now, Feeley is the best quarterback in St. Louis.

Brandon Marshall, Seattle Seahawks: This is hard for me to believe, but the Hawks are said to be considering signing Marshall. If they just sign him to an offer sheet, the Broncos can either match (unlikely) or just take the #6 overall pick in the draft for themselves. There’s something to be said for not paying a rookie a ton of money, but putting tons of money into your receiver spot (Housh and Marshall) doesn’t make much sense, even in an uncapped year. And having a QB that can’t really throw down field to get the ball to a guy you just wasted tons of money and a #6 draft pick on also is interesting. I’m not really sure what’s happening, but if the Hawks do this I wouldn’t be all that impressed. There’s going to be lots of good players at #6 in the draft… It seems like they could have worked out a trade for Marshall prior to the whole “lose your 6th pick” time – but we’ll see.

Marshall left Seattle without a contract offer but that doesn’t mean the controversial receiver won’t end up in Seattle. Both sides said it was more of a meet and greet, for both sides to figure out if the fit was good – and now the Hawks, if they like what they saw, will try to make a fair deal with the Broncos.

Anquan Boldin, Baltimore Ravens: This is where a lot of people that kept saying “Anquan Boldin isn’t a #1 receiver” are going to get full helpings of their words. The tough-nosed Boldin will be out to prove everyone wrong, and if you have seen the guy play, he has the type of attitude that will help him excel to another level. Boldin was traded with a 5th round pick to Arizona for a 3rd and 4th rounder. Boldin gives the Ravens an instant boost offensive, and should open up the field for the running game just that much more. If Derrick Mason comes back, that gives the Ravens a very good 1-2 punch. Boldin also signed a new contract with the team, so he should be happy and ready to contribute even more-so now that he’s getting paid what he’s worth.

Joshua Cribbs, Cleveland Browns: Not that Cribbs was ever leaving the team for sure, but his signing strengthens the Browns in a lot of places. He’s the best returner in the league, no doubt about that, and he’s a strong guy, which is rare for an elite open field gamebreaker. So, if the Browns do intend to use him more in the wildcat formation or as a ball carrier, he has the type of body to take that punishment. He’s an interesting sleeper candidate late in fantasy drafts. Cribbs deserved a new deal as one of the premier gamebreakers in the league, and apparently could make 20 million over the next three seasons. Good for him, indeed.

Vince Wilfork, New England Patriots: Wilfork is one of the biggest reasons the Patriots are solid against the run, year after year. There isn’t much better than Wilfork as far as 3-4 nose tackles are concerned, and his 40 million bucks that made him the highest paid nose tackle in the league ends up being pretty impressive.He deserved a new deal, and the Patriots finally anted for one of their own guys not named Tom Brady.

Antrel Rolle, New York Giants: The Giants wanted Rolle more than anyone else in free agency, and they finally got him after a long day of NFL signings. Rolle played a big role in making the Cardinals a solid defense, and helping to shut down the run. He’s very versatile with corner speed and can be a big hitter in run coverage – plus he’s still getting better. The Giants are really trying to get back to elite defensive play, and Rolle is a good start in a secondary that struggled all year.

Chad Clifton, Green Bay Packers: Clifton visited the Washington Redskins, probably just to show the Packers that he was serious. He self admittedly loved Green Bay, but it probably took a trip to Washington to force the Packers into paying him at market value, maybe even a little more. When you consider what Aaron Rodgers had to go through and the pressure he dealt with all season, you can imagine how worried the Packers were about possibly losing their best lineman. Green Bay still needs to get better up front, but keeping Clifton was a good way to keep that offense going forward. His 3 year deal is worth 20 million. Apparently the NFL isn’t dealing with the same money issues as the NBA, eh?

Kevin Walter, Houston Texans: Walter was courted by a couple teams, but knowing his worth and the solid things he does on the field, helping the Texans to be one of the best passing offenses in all of football, it’s understandable why Houston resigned the receiver. I still think that the Texans would have been better off spending their money elsewhere and giving the talented speedster, Jacoby Jones, a shot – but Walter is back, and Jones is back to the #3 receiver, which turns out to be the #5 option in the offense. Terms weren’t disclosed.

Karlos Dansby, Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins really went big. Dansby was probably the 2nd best unrestricted free agent available this offseason, and the Dolphins could certainly use Dansby’s all around great play. The elite linebacker played a huge role in making Arizona one of the best run defense in the league, and he can get after the passer as well. Having athletes like Karlos is very important to the Dolphins defensive scheme, and it’s always good to get one of the best football players in the league to join your team. This guy will have a huge impact on the Dolphins’ improved defense.

Dunta Robinson, Atlanta Falcons: The Texans didn’t want to let Robinson leave, but they probably didn’t want to deal with franchise tagging him again, nor did they want to pay him that huge of a sum and watch him show up on the last day of the pre-season. The Texans might be sad, losing one of their best athletes in the secondary, a guy that had elite potential – but the Falcons couldn’t be happier. When it comes down to it, I don’t know if the Texans wanted to pay Robinson his market value because of his up and down play, but Atlanta will use him right away, as they are starting to build a pretty good secondary. Now if they could just stop the run. Nobody knows how much the deal is worth.

Kerry Rhodes, Cardinals: The Cardinals may have lost out on Antrel Rolle, but I honestly think they got better with the addition of Kerry Rhodes. Kerry was traded for a couple late round picks from New York to Arizona. Rhodes has been a beast for the Jets over the last few years, and while he might not have some of the speed explosion that Rolle has, he still is one of the best defensive football players on the field. With something to prove, I actually think Rhodes will work out better than Rolle did last season. And the two players are both 28 – so the Cards don’t lose much there.

Aaron Kampman, Jaguars: One of the best defensive ends on the market is no longer on the market. Early Sunday morning, or late Saturday Night, the former Green Bay Packers’ defensive end, Aaron Kampman, signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Maybe the Jags were sick and tired of drafting over-hyped defensive ends in hopes of improving their suspect pass rush, because they don’t have to hope their guy becomes a pro-bowler, Kampman already has been. He was forced to play OLB last year for the Packers when the switched to the 3-4, but he should move right back to comfort and his proper position in the Jags 4-3. This is one of the best pickups of the offseason.

Seneca Wallace, Browns: The short quarterback from Seattle was traded to Cleveland today and I think he becomes the best signal caller in Cleveland. I’m not sure why the Hawks would want to get rid of Seneca, a perfectly capable back-up that has awesome athletic talent – but they traded him for some picks. Holmgren obviously knows what he’s getting in Wallace, and that’s why he traded for him. Those who were hoping that Brady Quinn would become the stud that many expected might have to temper their hopes. Which Browns QB will start? That question now includes somebody besides Quinn and Anderson, and that somebody is the likely starter.

Leigh Bodden, Patriots: One of the best free agent corners on the market resigned with the team that helped his value skyrocket. Bodden has always had the talent, but it was really realized this year in the Pats’ scheme, and with very little talent out there to acquire, the Pats probably did a smart thing by locking up Bodden. There were more than a few teams after Bodden, and I’m sure the Pats didn’t want to pay him as much as they did (the terms are still unknown) – but it was probably worth it for a team built to win now.

Ryan Clark, Steelers: One of the Top 3 safeties on the market was resigned by his old club after taking a little free agent trip to Miami yesterday. Clark looked like a goner, and that would have certainly hurt the Steelers solid defense, but after a trip to Miami didn’t bang home a contract, Clark got a deal done with his old club. That’s good for Steelers fans, because he was one of the solid players on a very physical defense.

Tank Johnson, Bengals: In a move that will go under the radar for the most part, the Bengals resigned one of the best defensive tackles on the free agent market. Tank gets a bad wrap, and probably deservedly so, but he’s one hell of a defensive tackle, and his success last season played a big role in the Bengals being one of the best run-defenses in football. Before they got beat up in the final few games of the year, they were an awesome unit. Tank will continue to plug holes up front and keep blockers off the Bengals’ linebackers – a group that is very athletic and very good tacklers.

Fantasy Football Update Running Backs: Brian Westbrook, LaDainian Tomlinson

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You may have heard, LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook were both released this week, and while both organizations made it sound like the decision was difficult and sad, anybody in the know straight knew these two backs were going to be looking for work elsewhere come 2010’s NFL Season. The question is, how does this effect the players, the teams, and their former back-ups. There’s a lot left to be determined by free-agent additions and the draft, but right now, I have some answers if you’re looking.

San Diego Chargers, LaDainian Tomlinson: It’s hard for me to imagine that LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t going to find work somewhere. If Fred Taylor can come into New England last season and be the Patriots lead back for portions of the year, what’s crazy about a 30-year-old LT finding some work. Now listen, his days of double digit touchdown-1400 yard rushing seasons are over and done with, but he still has a very good chance to be productive. He catches the ball well and still has good vision, if he’s not trying to prove he still has it on every run.

Some places that could use him? How about New England, Chicago, Green Bay, Houston, Minnesota (if they lose Chester Taylor), Seattle (if Julius Jones is getting carries, LT can instead), and maybe Washington (though I don’t know who would want to go run behind that line). Now every one of those teams isn’t likely to show interest in the former rushing hero, but some are, and if he’s down to play for lower pay, he’ll find a job, and I think he’ll be productive.

As for San Diego, I’m thinking their starting running back for next season isn’t on their roster yet. A guy like Chester Taylor, Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, or LenDale White (see many character problems in that bunch?) could come in and be more of a workhorse back to team up with Darren Sproles. But if they don’t sign a big free agent or make a trade, they’ll likely grab a guy like Jahvid Best, Jonathan Dwyer, or Ryan Matthews on draft day.

Now, and here’s where dynasty keeper league guys might want to make a shot in the dark at the waiver wire right now – Mike Tolbert could be a goal line option. He actually did some solid things for the Chargers when he got touches, and he’s a big bad man at the running back position. If they don’t sign or trade for a new runner, and even if they do pick a rookie back, Tolbert could be a guy getting a lot more touches this year. If Jake Delhomme is currently your 4th quarterback, go on ahead and pick up Tolbert – it could end up being a great move!

Philadelphia Eagles, Brian Westbrook: Brian Westbrook obviously had his problems staying on the field last year, and, probably unfairly, has been listed as an injury risk his entire career (I say unfairly because he played a ton of games and finished near the top of fantasy runner rankings year after year for quite some time), but the bottom line is that he’s the riskier of the two future hall-of-famers that were let go this week.

Riskier yes, but worth less right now? I’m not so sure. Westbrook has been a gamebreaker since he was drafted in the 3rd round by Philadelphia, and while LT is a solid receiver, Westbrook might be the best RB receiver in recent history. The guy has been a dynamic force, a do it all running back with the tools to get lots of yardage and fast.

For a pass happy team looking to add some perfect hands to their powerful running game, Westbrook might be the perfect answer – the risky part is those concussions. Will he play any more? That has to be a question going through his head, and it will be one he will eventually answer. But a healthy Westy is a good bet to catch 50-60 balls and be a flex option for a team that relies more heavily on a big back.

Some likely destinations? Minnesota comes to mind, if Chester Taylor is gone, as Westbrook’s ties to Brad Childress are strong. He would seemingly be perfect in a pass-happy scheme like New England, or in Seattle maybe (though I really like Justin Forsett as a speed playmaker), and a place like Green Bay. Basically, a team that might add LT has to think about Westbrook too – but it’s all about if he plays and staying healthy. Big risks for any “older” back, but especially Westy.

The Eagles should be okay at RB as Shady McCoy did good things during his first season in the NFL, producing as a receiver and a runner throughout the season. But what about Leonard Weaver? There were games down the stretch where the former full-back carried the load for Philly, and I’ve always liked his ability to both run between the tackles and catch the ball out of the backfield. His talent is undervalued, no doubt about that.

It will be interesting to see what the Eagles do, and which Philly back ends up with the most value. Obviously, McCoy is the better bet of the two, but I doubt Shady is on any waiverwires right now, while Big Weave might very well be.

Arse’s NFL Mock Draft 2010 1st Round Projections

Just like Lester, I think it’s foolish to be throwing up mock draft predictions three months prior to the draft. Unlike Lester, I’m a bit of a fool, so I jumped at the chance to weigh in with my thoughts on what direction teams would be leaning come late April. My first round mock takes into account moves that I think teams will make through free agency or via a trade leading up to the NFL draft. My mock draft, like many others I’ve seen thus far, is defense-heavy with only a handful of offensive “skill position” players coming off the board in round 1. Fantasy owners may have to dig a bit deeper this season in looking to fill their own needs and uncover potential impact players.

1. St. Louis Rams – Ndamukung Suh, DT, Nebraska

No reason to think the Rams will screw this up … yet.  Suh is the most dominant player at his (or any) position in college football.  I expect the Rams to address their quarterback woes via trade leaving them one of the easiest top pick choices in recent memory.  Suh will give them a rock-solid foundation to build around on D.

2. Detroit Lions – Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma

Unlike some of his peers that were considering entering the draft in 2009 but returned only to hurt their draft stock (Sam Bradford, Taylor Mays), McCoy’s value remained rock-steady.  Amazing quick for an interior lineman, McCoy will fill a major need for the Lions and Matt Millen isn’t around to mess things up anymore.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State

The Bucs have interest in Brandon Marshall, but I expect the Broncos to tender him and the asking price will be too high for Tampa Bay.  I think they take their shot here to nab an elite play-maker to team with developing quarterback Josh Freeman.  Bryant is a special player with the size, speed and play-making ability to have an immediate impact.

4. Washington Redskins – Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

Jason Campbell isn’t going anywhere, regardless of what the so-called experts think.  This team has holes that start up front and Shanahan is smart enough to know that without improving the o-line it won’t matter who is taking snaps.  Okung is nasty in the run game and has been very durable and consistent throughout his college career.

5. Kansas City Chiefs – Eric Berry, S, Tennessee

With an offense that is just starting to take shape following the breakout performance of Jamaal Charles down the stretch, the Chiefs should turn their attention to the defensive side of the ball with the early part of this draft.  Berry is a true difference-maker in the secondary who flies to the ball and exhibits tremendous leadership skills.

6. Seattle Seahawks – Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma

Bradford falling to the Hawks here represents too good of a value to pass up.  There are bigger needs on this team but with two first round picks the chance to grab a franchise quarterback and give him time to study under Matt Hasselbeck makes a lot of sense.  Bradford’s accuracy and decision-making translate very well to the next level.

7. Cleveland Browns – Joe Haden, CB, Florida

One need look no further than the New York Jets to see the impact a true cover corner can have on an entire defense.  While I’m not about to compare Haden to Darrelle Revis, the point is Haden is by far the best at his position in this draft and the Browns have a need in the secondary.  Haden is a solid tackler as well, important in a rugged division.

8. Oakland Raiders – Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech

One thing we’ve learned about the Raiders front office over the years is that they are awful at evaluating talent and addressing team needs.  That said, Morgan is a much safer pick here than a certain speedy wide receiver that struggles to hold on to the ball.  Richard Seymour and Greg Ellis were solid, but neither is a sure thing next season.

9. Buffalo Bills – Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma

The Bills are another team that I expect to address their QB needs prior to the draft.  Chan Gailey will likely try to install his familiar spread offense but without help on the front lines this team is going nowhere.  In a brutal AFC East, the Bills need to rebuild the foundation from the inside out and Williams will be a step in the right direction.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida

The Jags successfully rebuilt a faltering o-line early in last year’s draft and this season will turn their attention to the defense.  Their most glaring need is for a defensive end that can get pressure on opposing QBs and ease the pressure on a pedestrian secondary.  This team ranked last in the league in sacks last season (with just 14) and it wasn’t close.

11. Denver Broncos – Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

There are a lot of directions that I can see the Broncos going with this pick (QB, DE, S), but I think they grab the uber-talented tight end from Oklahoma.  Gresham is uncommonly gifted for his position, combining above average skills as a run blocker with exceptional receiving skills.  This pick would ease the loss of Brandon Marshall in the mile high city.

12. Miami Dolphins – Rolando McClain, MLB, Alabama

The rare combination of team need and best player available status.  McClain is a manimal and his skill were on display for all to see in the BCS title game against Texas.  The Phins could use his leadership, especially with the potential departure of Jason Taylor this offseason.  The rookie’s presence would instantly upgrade an already solid front-7.

13. San Francisco 49ers – CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson

Perhaps the most dynamic offensive weapon in college football this past season, Spiller will add an instant homerun threat to an offense that was already on the upturn.  Glen Coffee failed miserably in a complimentary role to pounder Frank Gore, and Spiller’s slashing style and big play potential in the return game are both needs for the Niners.

14. Seattle Seahawks – Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers

Davis is a bit of a mauler that uses his size and strength to win battles at the point of attack.  With a bit of work I think he could be a great fit for the zone blocking scheme favored by the new coaching regime in Seattle.  Paired with Bradford and an exciting young play-maker in Justin Forsett, the Hawks could have a nice trio to build around.

15. New York Giants – Navorro Bowman, OLB, Penn State

Bowman closes like a freight train and is a sure tackler, both areas the the G-Men lacked down the stretch at the second level.  Hard-rushing defensive ends Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora wreak havoc in opposing backfields, but without athletic backers in the flats the Giants allowed too many short passes to turn into big plays.

16. San Francisco 49ers – Earl Thomas, S, Texas

A pass-rushing end is another possibility here, but I think the more pressing need for the Niners is in the secondary.  A veteran group of cornerbacks featuring Nate Clements and Dre Bly could use an athletic safety over the top to allow them to play the aggressive style that coach Singletary prefers.  Thomas isn’t in Berry’s class but is a great value here.

17. Tennessee Titans – Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan

Originally pegged as a late-first or early-second round pick, Graham used a strong Senior Bowl showing to springboard his value heading into the combine.  This guy has a relentless motor and would be a nice upgrade to a Titans front four that was inconsistent at times getting to opposing quarterbacks and ranked in the bottom third of the league in sacks.

18. Pittsburgh Steelers – Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland

The Steelers ranked in the bottom half of the league this past season in rushing attempts, rushing yards, yards per carry and rushing TDs.  Think that will happen again in 2010?  The o-line has been a bit shaky for a couple of seasons now and without a committment to the running game Big Ben is taking some punishment.  Campbell fits a big need.

19. Houston Texans – Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Georgia Tech

I think Gary Kubiak is bad at managing his talent.  That’s why I’m helping him out here with a selection of Dwyer.  Pounding the rock 15-20 times a game with this kid and getting Steve Slaton 8-10 touches in space is a recipe for a playoff run when you consider the All-Pro connection of Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson and a young, talented D.

20. Atlanta Falcons – Taylor Mays, S, USC

The David is great and all, but if Michaelangelo were still sculpting today we’d be admiring his representation of “The Mays”.  This kid is an absolute specimen and if he had come out early last season in all likelihood he would have been a top-10 pick.  The talent hasn’t gone anywhere, and the Falcons could be getting a real steal nabbing Mays at 20.

21. Cincinnati Bengals – Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida

I’ve always thought TJ Houshmandzadeh (championship!) was a bit overrated … tough to make that argument with the way the Bengals passing game struggled this season without him.  Hernandez is a nice consoloation prize for Cincy fans who were hoping Gresham would fall to them.  Extremely athletic, he will give Carson Palmer an underneath target.

22. New England Patriots – Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida

The Pats will be thrilled if this scenario plays out the way I have it because Dunlap would fill a big need for them.  Although there are some minor character concerns here, this kid is a freak flying off the end and would spark a Patriot pass rush that was non-existent at times following the strange dismissal of Richard Seymour prior to the season.

23. Green Bay Packers – Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas

Kindle is a very physical player whose versatility would fit nicely into the Packers hybrid 3-4 system.  As a rare edge rusher that also plays the run very well, Kindle has the ability to be a nice fit regardless of personnel grouping.  If Kindle is gone by this point (a strong possibility), I can see the Pack adding a homerun hitter like Jahvid Best.

24. Philadelphia Eagles – Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa

I think the Eagles would love to draft an impact safety along the lines of Earl Thomas or Taylor Mays, but I think both will be gone by this point.  That said, improvement along the offensive line is a must if the Iggles are planning to re-establish (establish for the first time?) their running game and bring some balance to their offensive attack.

25. Baltimore Ravens – Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame

The Ravens need to get up-and-coming QB Joe Flacco some weapons.  Derrick Mason is a reliable chain-mover (if he returns) but the play-making ability Tate showed in his junior season for the Irish would be very difficult to pass up here.  This kid is a gritty player that will fight for the ball in traffic and look to gain extra yards after the catch.

26. Arizona Cardinals – Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee

No doubt a position of need for the Cards, Williams is a tremendous value at the DT position.  That said, the retirement of Kurt Warner recently has me thinking Arizona may be looking to snag a signal-caller sometime in this draft … whether they consider Jimmy Clausen here I don’t know but I certainly think it’s possible.

27. Dallas Cowboys – Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho

This may be the first top-round pick in the history of the University of Idaho.  Iupati made a name for himself throughout the season by dominating opponents in the WAC before a tremendous showing against Bowling Green in the postseason.  At 6′6″ and 330 lbs, it’s possible the Cowboys will try Iupati out at the tackle spot as well.

28. San Diego Chargers – Brandon Spikes, OLB, Florida

Running back is a huge need for the Chargers with an offseason full of uncertainty.  If Dwyer falls to them I think there is no question they pull the trigger but I don’t expect that to happen.  I think Merriman is on the way out and Spikes would be a nice replacement for the fiery edge-rusher.  The Bolts will address RB in later rounds I believe.

29. New York Jets – Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State

Robinson is certainly not in the class of a Joe Haden but he is a very talented player and the Jets lack of depth at CB was exposed several times throughout the season, particularly against the Colts in the AFC Championship.  I expect Braylon Edwards to be donning the green and white again next year so WR is a less pressing need at this stage.

30. Minnesota Vikings – Brian Price, DT, UCLA

A great value here for the Vikes who need to start thinking about fortifying a position that has been a strength for years now.  Pat and Kevin Williams (no relation) have been as good as any DT tandem in the league, but they are getting older and could use a young pup to spell them from time to time.  Price is a steal late in the first round.

31. Indianapolis Colts – Terrance Cody, DT, Alabama

Cody’s stock has been slipping due to concerns over his conditioning and motivation.  I think the Colts could find themselves a bargain here if they believe Cody is committed to playing at the next level.  Although not an every-down player, Cody is a massive run-stuffer that would make it difficult for teams to double Freeney and Mathis consistently.

32. New Orleans Saints – Jahvid Best, RB, California

This is a bit of a wildcard and I actually think the Saints should look to shore up their D-Line with one of the remaining glut of DTs but what the hell? … I think Reggie Bush has played his last game for the Super Bowl Champs and who better to fill his role than the shifty speedster out of Cal.  Similar skill set at a discounted rate? … I’ll take it.

NFL Mock Draft Database

Red Red Ryans 2010 NFL Mock Draft: Round 1

Red Red Ryan’s 2010 NFL Mock Draft

This is my first mock draft in my short history as a sports writer. I’ve read all that I can read about where some of the key free agents might be going, who is leaving, who might be traded, and who is unhappy with the players they have. I have studied up on the players and their expected combine numbers, their potential as NFL stars as well as their college situations. I think I have a pretty solid grasp on the first round of the NFL Draft – so here it goes.

1. St. Louis Rams: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska: I don’t know how the Lions pass up on the biggest sure thing of the draft. Rarely can you get a difference maker at a key position on the line that is the popular choice – don’t waste this St. Louis!
2. Detroit Lions: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma: I know this is the same start to my mock as Lucky Lester’s mock, and everyone else’s mock too, but it just makes too much sense. I’ve liked McCoy since I thought he should come out last season, and his domination this year makes me like him even more. The Lions need help up front.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Joe Haden, CB, Florida: I know Berry is supposed to be the pick, but I don’t see value in a safety here, and I think, after much deliberation, the Bucs will feel the same way. The best corner in the draft is Joe Haden, and it’s not close. With Revis dominating all season long, I think a true shut down corner has some added value, and that value will sway the Bucs.
4. Washington Redskins: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers: Many would like to see the Redskins go quarterback here, but I don’t think there’s a talented arm in the Shanny mold in this draft, and I think that leaves him grabbing the best offensive tackle with upside to fit his blocking scheme. Anthony Davis is that guy. He may not be the biggest or baddest lineman out there, but his combination of agility and upside has to be something Shanny likes. I think they’ll try to trade down with a team enamored by a QB, and I think they’ll be able to and still get Davis.
5. Kansas City Chiefs: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State: This guy is the biggest and baddest available, and the Chiefs could use him. It’s hard to get the most out of Matt Cassel and his average arm when he’s never getting time to throw. Okung is also a mauler than can help that new and improved Chiefs run-game.
6. Seattle Seahawks: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee: Taylor Mays is a USC, Pete Carol guy, but what Pete and the Seahawks get here is probably the 2nd or 3rd best player in the draft. Berry would definitely help sure up that leaky Hawks secondary, and the Pee-Hawks will be really lucky to get this game breaker.
7. Cleveland Browns: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma: Best quarterback in the draft, just like he would have been last season. His shoulder injuries are a little scary, but I think he’s worth the chance. Brady Quinn isn’t the answer. Holmgren has been solid with QBs, and I think Bradford is special.
8. Oakland Raiders: Rolando McLain, OLB, Alabama: Al Davis is a nut job, but he has to see special when it dominates on the biggest stage. McLain is a beast, he brings the ruckus and he’ll be a good piece of an improving Raider defense.
9. Buffalo Bills: Derek Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech: The Buffalo Bills need lots of things, but an every down end that can rush the passer and stop the run is a huge plus for that team, a team that will rely on their young and talented defense. Morgan has all the tools to be great, and he’s a good value here.
10. *Jacksonville Jaguars: Earl Thomas, S, Texas: There’s Dunlap, there’s Tebow (if they’re really that in need of revenue), and there’s a bunch of other good players than can help – but Thomas is an every down difference maker on defense, and that’s as safe a bet as the draft has. I think they take him.
11. *Denver Broncos: Carolos Dunlap, DE, Florida: Dunlap is a freak of nature, and if Josh McDaniels thinks he can get the most out of the very talented and ginormous defensive end, he’ll get picked up here. Jason Pierre-Paul could also go here. If McDaniels is really going to get a game changer, he’ll get Dez Bryant, but I think he waits on receiver help.
12. Miami Dolphins: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State: Dez Bryant is a freak. I think he reacts to the ball as well as anyone, and he made a very mediocre college quarterback look very good the last two seasons. His run in with the NCAA will scare nobody. The Dolphins need WR help something fierce.
13. San Francisco 49ers: Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland: I don’t see much else in terms of value for the Niners here. They could use a couple upgrades in the secondary I guess, so a guy like Taylor Mays could help, but they need more power up front, and Campbell has the athleticism to be a great one up front.
14. Seattle Seahawks: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa: If the Hawks don’t get Eric Berry with their 6th pick, I think Mays could go here. Carol knows how great Mays can be, and he knows that a lot of those problems this season were do to over extending himself and trying to make every play for a struggling team. But since they have Berry, Mays is not an option here. Offensive tackle is, and the Hawks need help there. People who think the Hawks need Spiller here are flat crazy, as Carol will soon see that Justin Forsett will do just fine in that role, and a 1st round draft pick need not be wasted on a small running back. The Hawks could use some help on the defensive line too, but there’s lots of help there. I think Bryan Bulaga has enough OT upside for Seattle to grab him here.
15. New York Giants: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma: Kevin Boss is solid, but he’s not Gresham. The Oklahoma pass catching end is special, and thus might be worthy of a middle of the pack 1st round pick. He was unstoppable during his last healthy season, and Eli could use a game breaker in the passing game.
16. *San Francisco 49ers: Taylor Mays, S, USC: All the talent in the world, plenty of speed, brings it all every game – a game breaker – Mike Singletary’s type of player.
17. *Tennessee Titans: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee: The Vols were very good defensively, and a lot of that credit has to be given to Williams and the way he dominated the line up front. He’s so strong and really uses good leverage. The Titans need defensive line help.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma: The Steelers really need help on the offensive line, and while Williams isn’t a guarantee to be great, he certainly proved he can play at a high level on the right side. Big Ben needs to stop holding the ball or get help up front, or both. Williams helps right now.
19. *Houston Texans: Brian Price, DT, UCLA: The Texans keep building on defense, and it makes sense, because offensively they are good enough to win football games. I think Price will be a very good defensive tackle, and any other year he’s likely a Top 10 guy, but there’s so many D-linemen this year, he slips. Lucky Texans.
20. *Atlanta Falcons: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida: I must have missed something letting this guy slip this far – but that always happens a couple times, and the Falcons, while not in a great need for a DE, have to take the very talented Paul at 20.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida: Some think Aaron is the best of the TEs in a strong draft for pass catching big men. The Bengals definitely need some help in the passing game, another reliable threat for Palmer, and what better than a sure thing TE with great hands and mis-match type speed?
22. New England Patriots: C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson: I like what Lucky is thinking with this pick. Bill Belichick has to know a weapon when he sees one, and the Pats offense needs more weapons. Spiller scores a touchdown every game, that needs to be recognized. I think Sergio Kindle could go here as well.
23. Green Bay Packers: Charles Brown, OT, USC: I’m doing this for lack of a better plan. I think Kindle could go here too, but offensive line is a big need and Brown is the next best OT. The Pack won’t want to leave the draft without some help up front, and it will be slim pickings later. Maybe the Pack would take a chance on the very talented Jahvid Best? I just don’t think a back-up RB has that much value here.
24. Philadelphia Eagles: Navorro Bowman, OLB, Penn State: This is a great fit for the Eagles, a sure tackler that can get sideline to sideline. They were hurting at LB so much that they brought Trotter back in the fold. Seriously – as much as I did that guy, come on. I also think Everson Griffen has a chance to go here.
25. Baltimore Ravens: Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame: The Ravens could go for the ideal WR body, speed and height, or they could go for the guy that is going to get it done, a guy that dominated all season long at ND. I think they go with option two after watching Derrick Mason be so consistent over the years.
26. Arizona Cardinals: Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas: The Cardinals would be oh-so-lucky to get Kindle here, especially after the retirement of Bertrand Berry. Kindle is not a physicall imposing player, but what a difference maker and unbelievably physical for his size. A steal at 26.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida: Keith Brooking is 34 and Spikes is one of the best defensive players in college football. I’m not saying he can easily replace what Brooking did for the Cowboys this season, but he can learn from him, and he can help right away everywhere else.
28. San Diego Chargers: Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho: Could the Chargers reach for the mammoth nose tackle Cody, knowing they need to clog up the middle on defense? Maybe. Could they go RB, to replace LT’s production as a more powerful back to team with Sproles? Maybe, but I think this is too high to go RB for them. Mike Iupati is a beast of a guard, and this run-game needs help. I think he starts right away for an O-line that needs some upgrades.
29. New York Jets: Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU: The Jets aren’t in dire need of offensive play-makers like everyone insists – come on. They have a stellar offensive line. They have a great defense – so I think they get to pick the best player available. If they think Hughes can fit somewhere in that 3-4, I think he works. He might not be the biggest or strongest, but the guy has gotten it done with great consistency, and I think Rex can appreciate a great football player.
30. Minnesota Vikings: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State: The kid is a good player and the Vikings could always use help in the secondary, he’ll help right now. For a team that was so good all season on both sides of the ball, I think the Vikings could get youth at any position and feel good about it. That being said, I still think it’s Robinson.
31. Indianapolis Colts: Vladimir Ducasse: The Colts won’t go receiver, they don’t need RB help, and they are pretty much solid everywhere. They could always use warm bodies on defense where the team seems to sift through injuries, and a guy like Brandon Spikes or even Brandon Graham could go here. But I like this kid’s upside, and from what I read he has some great intangibles. The Colts are always looking to grab great upside.
32. New Orleans Saints: Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State: This guy and Sedrick Ellis will clog up the middle, and bring a consistent inside pass rush for a long, long time. The Saints get a great player if Odrick falls to them.

That’s right, just one quarterback. My honest opinion is that Bradford is the only guy worth dipping a number one pick one, and none of the teams late in the draft should be loosing a 1st rounder to get a quarterback. If a trade down happens, sure, I can see that – but predicting a trade right now is straight ludicrous.

2010 NFL Mock Draft – Lucky Lesters Mock Draft

I’ve always thought that a pre-end of season mock draft is crazy. There’s so much time to go, shoot, we don’t even know which underclassmen are for sure and which ones are just flirting with the big show. But we have ideas, thoughts, predictions, and all that junk, and since this is just fiction and fortune telling at it’s best, I might as well get in on all the fun. Here’s my own mock draft, which player I would pick if I was the team on the clock. I’ll tell you one thing, it will take me a hell of a lot less time to make my draft happen then it will during the actual draft. As is, right now, pre-free agency signings and trades and combine and everything – this is what I’ve got…. This is my only Mock Draft that is solely based on the team’s needs and my opinion of where the team should go. After this, it’s all fortune telling! (* indicates that the exact draft order for these positions is still up to a coin flip)

Lucky Lester’s 2010 NFL Mock Draft

1. St. Louis Rams: Ndamukong Suh:The biggest baddest sure thing star in the draft. I know some find it wrong to take a DT #1 overall, and that’s all fine and dandy, but this is the DT you take #1 overall because he would fit a huge need, help a bad defense, and is the best player in college football. The big cat almost won the Heisman as a freaking defensive tackle. He’s a no-brainer for me.
2. Detroit Lions:Gerald McCoy: This beast of a tackle would have been a Top 10 pick last season, but he stayed in school – unlike some other Oklahoma Sooners, this season only upped his stock, as McCoy gained strength and speed and proved even more dominating than before. He has the ability to be a force against both the run and pass. This would help the entire Lions defense.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:Eric Berry: The Buccos actually have a pretty solid offensive line, a nice youngster at QB that is way ahead of where most expected him to be, and a few running backs that have all had success in the league. I think Dez White is going to be special, and they could use help at receiver, but I would never take a WR in the Top 5 – that’s too much money going to that position.
   
   Defensively, they could stand to gain some youth and explosiveness. I would go D here.They don’t really have a big need at safety, but Eric Berry is one heck of a game-breaker in the secondary – this is a little high for safety, not a spot you want to over pay. So I’m a bit hesitant. They could definitely use some help in the middle of that defensive line, and you can bet they’ll be hoping one of the top D-tackles falls to them at the 3rd spot. In my draft, I was smart, and I drafted those two bigs 1 and 2, so that leaves me in a bit of a quandary here.
   
   I think Joe Haden had a great chance to go here, because corner is a tougher place to find starter-quality players than safety, but my belief in Berry as an elite pro has me taking the Tennessee safety here.
4. Washington Redskins:Sam Bradford: The Redskins need offensive linemen bad, but it’s hard for me to believe that the best offensive line prospect, Russell Okung, will be drafted by Mike Shanahan. Shanny, or Splinter, as I call him, has always had a thing for linemen with elite footwork and quickness.
   
   Okung is one hell of a player, but he’s not an elite athlete at the position. He’ll fit in most offenses, but at #4, it’s hard for me to see Shanny grabbing a guy that doesn’t fit the bill. What I do think Splinter has been good at is grabbing QBs. He’s a pretty good judge of talent there, though I’m not sure my favorite, Sam Bradford, has the arm strength master Splinter wants in a signal caller. Oh the tough decisions.
   
   If I were the Redskins, I would trade down. I’m sure there will be a team wanting to get here to grab their favorite signal caller, and the Skins need help in a few places. Still, no trades for me, I’m not that good of a mock drafter, so I’ll take Sam Bradford. I think he is by far the best QB in the class, and though he doesn’t have John Elway or Jay Cutler arm strength, I think his future is bright.
5. Kansas City Chiefs:Russell Okung: The Chiefs and coach Todd Haley could try to bolster their offense, which was 23rd in points scored and 25th in total yards in his first season as the head man. KC has compiled one heck of a coaching staff this off-season, hiring a couple big name former ex-Patriots’ staff members in Romeo Crennel (DC) and Charlie Weis (OC). Last year, the Chiefs went heavy defense, using thier first 3 picks on two defensive linemen and a corner. It didn’t help much as they were 29th in points give up and 30th in yards allowed. Yikes.
   
   Considering their rushing resurgence over the final weeks of the season, and how that might be the only thing they have going for them, I’m sticking with my offense and grabbing Russell Okung. He’s a big bad man, and a guy that would help the Chiefs keep Matt Cassel off his ace and continue that rushing attack. He’s a mauler.
6. Seattle Seahawks: Anthony Davis: The Rutgers offensive tackle has the tools to be an elite left tackle in the NFL. Face it, the Hawks have needed help along the offensive line for a long time. They could go defense here, sure, but the D-line is deep in this draft, and amongst the top O-line prospects, I think Davis has the best feet and thus the best upside. If I were the Hawks, I would love to see Sam Bradford, Eric Berry, or one of the D-Tackles here, but I’ll certainly settle for upgrading a position that is almost always the determining factor between playoff teams and those watching after Week 17 – offensive line success is a must! And in that spot, I’m looking for upside, not brute force.
7. Cleveland Browns: Dez Bryant: I know this is higher than everybody else has the WR going, but he’s an elite pro prospect at the position. His “situation” this year is hardly a knock on his draft stock, and he was dominating during the season before his suspension. I think his size and speed as well as his ability to react to the ball make him an awesome prospect, one of the best since Calvin Johnson. Not that it matters, because this is MY DRAFT, but those that don’t think Holmgren would waste a pick on a WR here, give me a break, he traded a 1st rounder for Deion Branch, drafted Koren Robinson, and sees a need for an elite play-maker in a suspect passing game. Seems to fit.
8. Oakland Raiders: Trent Williams: This is a tough, “What would I do” pick – I mean, if I were Al Davis, I would take out my batteries and fade away into oblivion, but that’s hardly part of “draft strategy” or is it? As is, I’m not taking into account the crazies that run these teams, so I’m going for what I’d go with. Derrick Morgan is a possibility, but he didn’t always impress me, and G-Tech defensive ends (seems like there’s always one great pass rusher on that team) scare me. So I’m waiting to draft him.
   
   I think Trent Williams intrigues me here. I’m not enamored with either of the other two top quarterbacks, and while JaMarcus Russell has about as bright of a future as Al Davis himself, you can’t go wrong with Trent Williams. He’s a big strong tackle that can help immediately, and I promise he’ll make ten times the impact of a guy like, say, Darius Heyward-Bey….
9. Buffalo Bills: Bruce Campbell: The Bills need help everywhere, no doubt, and you can bet their new staff will be turning every stone to acquire more draft picks or get the one guy here that can really help them move forward. I really like Joe Hadden, still the best player on my board, and has been for a while, but this team has some great young corners, especially last year’s 2nd round pick, Jairus Byrd – the guy nabbed 9 interceptions in his rookie season. Nasty. This team actually isn’t bad defensively. Numbers will tell you they stink, and they could definitely sure up that run-defense, but having an offense that scores no points and gets no yards puts a defense in bad spots. I think the Bills could take a chance on Jimmy Claussen here.
   
   But I wouldn’t go that direction. The Bills need to run the ball, and especially with the run-game guru signed up as head coach, there are some good fits in this draft. I think Bruce Campbell’s quickness and footwork make him a great upside pick, and while this may be a little early, I’m looking for good, solid, franchise players that will help these teams. Bruce fits the bill.
10. *Jacksonville Jaguars: Joe Haden: Perfect fit, great player, great value, a big need for a low-level pass defense that needs help in the secondary. There’s not much to say about this except the Jaguars will be really damn lucky if Haden falls to them.
11. *Denver Broncos: Rolando McClain: There’s not much I have to say besides that this kid is one of the best football players I watched on the college level this season. I’m not ready to say this is one of the biggest needs the Broncos have, or that I can justify this pick over a defensive end and physical specimen like Carlos Dunlap, but McClain is a beast and would certainly give this team a lot of options at line-backer. I think he makes the entire defense more physical and athletic.
12. Miami Dolphins: Jason Pierre-Paul: In the mold of a Jason Taylor more than a Joey Porter, this physical freak of nature could become exactly what a 3-4 defense wants at the pass rushing end. He has the physical tools to dominate and has the motor to make it happen. I think this is a great upside pick for a defense looking for big plays.
13. San Francisco 49ers: Earl Thomas: I would consider Colt McCoy if I didn’t love Nate Davis’s game. That’s right, the kid that didn’t play for the 49ers this year has a bright future, and sooner than later that will be realized. As for this next season, they 49ers probably find a way to stick with Alex Smith, they owe themselves that much. And I think they should, they have bigger needs now than quarterback.
    
    C.J. Spiller is intriguing if they are going to go against Mike Singletary’s initial hopes and run the spread, the guy could be a huge game breaker for them, but come on, Frank Gore is an all around beast, so Spiller is out. Derrick Morgan is still there, but I’m not sure he translates to a 3-4 defensive end or an outside linebacker, either way, the 49ers are pretty stout up front on D and while his value is high, I think the Niners are closer to being good than needing to build.
    
    I think Mike, and myself as well (if I was running the Niners) would like to be stronger up front, but I’m not sure the value fits that position here. In the end I go with Earl Thomas. The 49ers are great against teh run, but Earl could really help them cover some ground in the secondary. He clogged passing lanes for a great Texas defense and I think he’ll do it at the next level as well.
14. Seattle Seahawks: Derrick Morgan: I would have loved Earl Thomas here, for the Hawks, because they need help in that secondary bad. Taylor Mays could be the guy, and I’m this close to pulling that trigger, but the Pete Carol/USC roots thing is just too good to be true, even for a mock draft. But hey, Derrick Morgan with the 14th pick is an absolute steal, and so is Carlos Dunlap, both options that are, amazingly enough, still sitting around waiting to hear their names called here.
    
    I think quarterback can wait, and since the Hawks already grabbed an offensive lineman earlier in this round, help on the defensive line seems like a good move. I like Derrick Morgan’s motor, and even as a GT D-end, his strength against the pass and run seems too good to pass up in the middle of Round 1. I don’t see Carrol, a defensive guru, moving to a 3-4, something he didn’t run at USC – and he’s already loaded at linebacker, so if he did that, this pick wouldn’t make sense.
15. New York Giants: Carlos Dunlap: The Giants could use some push on defense. I think Dunlap’s size and physical upside makes him a great selection for a Giants team that definitely lost a bit of their defensive punch as the season went forward. This team had a lot of injuries, and I’m not sure they have terrible need anywhere, which makes Dunlap, and his upside, an even better selection.
16. *San Francisco 49ers: Brian Bulaga: Jimmy Claussen is still on the board here, but I would still do my best to steer clear. I like Brian Bulaga… This big offensive tackle has the feet I want in an offensive lineman, and he hasn’t reached his full potential yet. Yes, I like OL guys that don’t rely too heavily on overpowering college defensive linemen throughout their NCAA careers – because in the NFL, that won’t always be an option. Bulaga has the footwork to be special, and should help an struggling run-game from the get go. The Niners definitely make the most of their two mid-round picks.
17. *Tennessee Titans: Brian Price: Offensively, I actually think the Titans are stout. They could reach for a special tight end, and I think this draft has plenty to choose from, but I personally don’t believe in 1st round tight ends. Especially because Vince has a nice relationship with Bo Scaife, and they’ve shown that on the field. The team definitely needs pass rush help, as the time opposing quarterbacks got when they dropped back definitely effected the defense and their 31st ranking against the pass. They could get that at end, but the best defensive lineman on the board is Brian Price. Price might not be a freak of nature, isn’t 6′8″ and 320 pounds with a 50 inch vertical or anything, but the guy clogs holes, disrupts quarterbacks, and causes ruckus on the football field. The Titans need that.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers: Everson Griffen: Obviously offensive line is something I rate high, and the Steelers need help there badly, but my appreciation and respect for what good offensive linemen mean has the top 5 gone by pick 16, two picks before the Steelers draft. This team needs pass-blockers bad, and there’s a good chance one of the top 5 slip. If Bulaga or Campbell or Davis fell this far, I’d have them in black and gold in a hurry. As is, there’s no value at OL here, so I have to go another route.
    
    Everson Griffen is an elite prospect that is probably coming out a little too early – but he could be molded into a 3-4 end. This is a team that never has too many concerns about drafting defensive prospects, and some help on the line. Brett Keisel will be in his 9th season, and while he’s still a force, Griffen would be a nice selection if the Steelers believe he can become that rush end in their base defense.
19. *Houston Texans: Patrick Robinson: The Texans need help in the secondary, some way, some how. They’ve invested a lot into the defensive line, and they have some great upside there. The kids are growing up and now they need some lock-down players on the outside. I don’t know if Patrick Robinson is a Top 20 corner, but he’s close, and he definitely will help make plays for the Texans on the outside. Houston could go for help at linebacker, or even grab a guy like Taylor Mays, but I think Robinson helps them in a place of need, and he’s a lot better than option 3 at CB – value both for the team and in the draft.
20. *Atlanta Falcons: Taylor Mays:The kid is an absolute specimen. His size and speed are an uncanny pair, and he was one of the best defensive players in college football two seasons ago. This season, he got caught out of position a few times, and definitely was trying to do too much. But a kid, and his upside, doesn’t change that much in a year, and this guy is a top 10 pick in that department. He’s a playmaker, a helper against the run, a destroyer looking for big hits in the secondary. I think the Falcons could use all of that, and I think this is a steal here.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Jermaine Gresham: I said I don’t like 1st round TE’s and I wasn’t lying, but just like any drafter, I have my value price where I just can’t pass a guy up. Gresham is more of an elite wide receiver than a TE, similar to a guy like Witten, Gates, Tony Gonzalez, at least in terms of upside. The Bengals have never had a TE with that kind of ability, and without an elite WR right here for the Bengals to grab (for an offense that was definitely lacking explosiveness in the passing game) I think Gresham is a great pick.
22. New England Patriots: C.J. Spiller: I don’t see what’s taking Bill Belichick so long. The Patriots love to pass the ball, and they love to pass it short, why not have one of the most feared open space players in the draft come in and make the most out of Tom Brady’s ability to read defenses, and take advantage of mis-matches. Spiller is a mis-match to big play waiting to happen. I know he doesn’t fit the normal Patriot mold, but what does that mean anyway? Does it mean they haven’t drafted one in a while? I see Spiller as a double digit touchdown guy in the NFL – the Pats could use that at the RB position.
23. Green Bay Packers:Sergio Kindle: I just can’t see a team like Green Bay passing on a guy like Kindle. I think the Packers are in a great spot, they don’t need much, but Kindle is a great piece to a 3-4 defense because of his ability to just flat out make plays. I know the Packers have plenty of players at linebacker, but I’m not sure any of them is as good a pair as Kindle would be to Clay Matthews. Kindle’s explosive nature would be yet another piece for a fast forward Packers defense.
24. Philadelphia Eagles: Navorro Bowman: The Eagles could definitely use some sideline to sideline play-making ability from the linebacker spot, some youth, some speed, some all around great play. Bowman is a great linebacker, and he can definitely do what the Eagles need him to do. He’s not a great guy to fight off blocks, but if the Eagles can let him roam, he’ll make plays all over the field.
25. Baltimore Ravens: Brandon LaFell: I think LaFell is going to be one heck of a receiver. I think a receiver’s stats in college can often be thrown right out the window, especially if they are part of a really special passing attack or a really terrible passing attack. LaFell can mark down himself as a victim of the latter, but I still think he has #1 upside. The Ravens could get depth in a lot of places, or they could go for the gusto and see if one of the late 1st to 2nd round receivers fits like a glove. I think LaFell is a good choice.
26. Arizona Cardinals: Brandon Spikes: I don’t know what the Cardinals will need more. They have lots of holes, I know that. Dansby is a question mark, will he be back, will he be happy? Kurt Warner? Retiring? Anquan Boldin? Traded? Bertrand Berry retired, I know that, so the Cardinals could definitely use an end. I’m going for one hell of a football player to replace Carlos Dansby. I know Carlos does lots of things for the Cardinals, and I’m not sure that Spikes will get those all done right off the bat – but he’s a difference maker at the ILB position, and the Cardinals could use some more pop, especially if Dansby hits the road.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Ricky Sapp: I’m not sure what the Packers really need. They have a three-headed monster at running back, one highly paid under-performer at receiver but teamed with an underpaid pro-bowler makes it a pretty solid position. Then you have one of the best TEs in the league, a great young quarterback, and offensive line that is good (but needs youth) – then you have that defense that is really maturing in the secondary while staying as powerful as ever up front. Tough to find a hole.
    
    I think the Cowboys have room to grab the best player available, and the only problem is, I think that’s an OLB named Ricky Sapp. They are loaded at OLB, and I don’t know if there’d be room for Sapp to play, unless they Boys got rid of either Ware or Spencer, both of which are elite OLBs. Jahvid Best is another guy that is high on my list, as is Ryan Matthews, but it’s tough to see the Cowboys going RB. I’m not sure if any of the DL prospects would fit nicely in that 3-4 as a lineman. So without further ado, I’m just going to go on ahead and select Sapp – he’s the best player on my board and I don’t love any O-line guys right at this spot. I think Sapp is a steal, I don’t know how I didn’t pick him earlier.
28. San Diego Chargers: Jonathan Dwyer: Obviously LT isn’t likely to come back, and I think Dwyer is the best power back in the draft. He played an interesting FB type position at Georgia Tech, and he wasn’t as leaned on during his last season with the Jackets, but Dwyer is a beast and I think he has the power and quick burst to be a very good starting running back in the NFL. He’s a great match with a guy like Darren Sproles, the heavy deep fried dough to the sprinkles and frosting that make a doughnut. What can I say, I’m on pastry thoughts here.
29. New York Jets: Golden Tate: The Jets have some good players at receiver, and Edwards and Cotchery both have good size and speed – and I don’t know what Tate will “measure” out at, but I have to be honest, I don’t care. Golden Tate should get a weekly thank you letter from Charlie Weis that says, “I’d like to thank you for getting me a job as an offensive coordinator after I got fired. You are the reason I looked good when I did.” Tate might not have great size or speed or whatever you want to have for receivers – but he does do one thing, he goes and gets the ball and he makes magic happen. The kid was unstoppable and he made Jimmy Claussen look really good on some “up for grabs” balls. I think the Jets could really use a guy like him in their run first, big pass play offense.
30. Minnesota Vikings: Dan Williams: The original Williams’s aren’t going to be around forever, and Dan Williams is a heck of a defensive lineman and the name fits – but that’s just coincidence, I promise. He may not be a dead ringer for one of the Wild Things, but he’s a big bad man with an extremely strong lower body, and built in the mold to take up space and fight for position. The Vikings need back-ups for exactly that.
31. Indianapolis Colts: Bruce Carter: Bottom line, Bruce Carter is a machine. The Colts seem to plug new players in all the time, and this guy seems like he’ll fit the bill. Carter is a little undersized, but the Colts probably won’t mind, shoot, he’ll fit right in. This guy was a big reason why the UNC Tar Heels were a defensive force in the ACC – his speed and ability to move to the ball would make him an ideal guy in Indy’s defensive schemes.
32. New Orleans Saints: Brandon Graham: I think Graham might fit that Colts edge rusher ideal better – I mean he’s a little undersized, probably won’t measure out as an elite prospect, but just does everything he can to get to the quarterback and make tackles in the backfield. His production this season, on a team that wasn’t very good at winning football games, was just down right scary. I think Graham continues his production at the next level, and the Saints could use more motor and pass rushing prowess. Even if he’s not the ideal size, I see him as the best fit for the Saints.

2009 NFL Fantasy Football Predictions: Season Review

Well, the predictions I got correct, I marked in red ink in my review statement below. The ones I got wrong gave me the blues, so I used blue. Neat, huh? As you’ll realize, I sure end up using a lot of blue ink. I had some good calls, and a couple of my misses were oh so close, but in the end, it was a tough fantasy season for the self-proclaimed fantasy master. Here’s the review…

1. When Maurice Jones-Drew straps up his helmet this season he’ll get 5-10 more touches per game. According to Josh Arsenault’s “Value of Opportunity” article that means big things for MJD. How big? Try 1800+ total yards and 14+ TDs for one of the game’s most explosive players.

Well, I must say, I came up a hair short on yardage. MJD was a beast, no doubt about it, but I said 1800+ yards and the heart of the Jaguars came up with 1765 and 16 touchdowns. He did end up as the #2 running back in fantasy football, just ahead of Adrian Peterson. Maybe if Jack Del Rio wasn’t such a dink and gave the guy 9 touches in each of the team’s games against Tennessee, maybe then he’d gotten to 1800 – I was wrong, but in a good way.

2. Through one game last season, Nate Burleson was on pace to have 900+ yards and 80 catches. He’ll get close to that this season, despite being TJ Housh’s sidekick for the Seattle Seahawks. How close? Lets say 70 grabs and 900 yards, plus at least 6 touchdowns. Not a bad output for a guy rarely getting picked before Round 14, if at all.

Well I doubt he would have gotten to 6 touchdowns, as the Hawks only scored 5 as a team. No, but seriously, Nate would have easily gotten to 70 and 900 if he didn’t bust his knee up in Week 14’s loss to the Texans, ending his season early with 63 catches for 812 yards and 3 scores. His first 5 weeks were solid, after that, pretty damn good considering he was on the Seahawks, but just not good enough for red ink.

3. Last year, Donnie Avery posted 53 receptions, 674 yards, and 3 scores for the Rams. He’ll double that last total, while finishing with at least 70 grabs and 850 yards.

Donnie came out and hurt himself right off the bat. And I’m not sure if he was even close to full speed until Week 5. Then he got caught in the Rams terrible passing attack. Another mid-season injury slowed him a bit, and while the sophomore did catch 5 touchdowns, his 47 grabs for 589 yards were both lower than last seasons totals.

4. Two of the following four quarterbacks will fail to play 12 games this year: Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Big Ben Roethlisberger. O-line questions, style of play observations, interesting coaching decisions, and some bad freaking luck will likely play a role.

Every guy played more than 12 games. Brett and Drew played them all, and McNabb only missed 2 games. Big Ben missed 1. What can you say, they fought off age and injury history and questionable line work. Well, Brett and Drew had great offensive lines. Anyway, wrong again.

5a. If Daunte Culpepper gets the job out of camp, he’ll throw more than 20 touchdowns in 2009.

Not  possible, as Culpepper didn’t get the job in camp, but go down to option 5b…

5b. If Matthew Stafford gets the gig out of camp, he’ll throw for less than 15.

Stafford got the job out of camp, and he threw for 13 touchdowns, so I win. Sure, I needed a little injury help, but those injuries also kept his interceptions down as Matt threw 20 picks in 10 games, pretty impressive. He did throw nearly half of his TDs in one crazy game against the Browns, 5 to be precise, but he didn’t quite get to 15…

6. At least two of these guys will be in the top 5 in rushing yards this season: LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Ryan Grant.

So close, but the text color is still blue. Steven Jackson finished 2nd in rushing yards with 1416 yards on the ground despite missing a couple games. Ryan Grant finished 7th. Frank Gore had 1110 yards despite missing 3 complete games, and 3.5 quarters of another. LT was a bust, but he did put up double digit touchdowns once again. It was close, but didn’t get to red.

7. There is a business like show business – it’s called professional sports.

True. How else do you explain Larry Johnson tweeting some crap about how his dad would be a better coach than his actual head coach, then getting fired because of it, then getting hired by a playoff team, then rushing for 100 yards only to not really be used at all when it matters? And then the Brett Favre story… Speaks for itself. And what about Mark Sanchez and his decision to go pro working out while he picks at his former coach for making the same decision a year later? You need more, or are you just going to go ahead and believe me? Alright, linemen are almost unknown to most NFL fans, yet Michael Oher (you know him now) has a movie made about his life and it becomes one of the holiday season’s most loved films. Show business folks, there’s something just like it!

8. The last time Tony Gonzalez had less than 73 catches was 2002 and that was the only time that happened in the last 10 years. He’ll have fewer catches this season.

83 catches, nope. A very consistent and productive year for the old man, and while he finished lower on the final TE rankings than many predicted, he had a very solid season and is still a top notch pass catcher.

9. Reggie Bush will end up having more fantasy points than Pierre Thomas, despite getting drafted after him in almost every single draft. Many forget that Reggie played in only 10 games (2 of which he barely played in) and he still finished with over 800 total yards and 6 TDs.

Reggie ended up with 150 fantasy points while Pierre went for 183. So I was wrong. Neither guy was great. Reggie looked good against the Cardinals, but he’s always shown something big in playoff games. The guy is certainly dynamic. But I was wrong again.

10. Matt Hasselbeck is moving up my rankings based on his strength and accuracy thus far in the pre-season. He’ll finish as a Top 10 fantasy quarterback this year.

Hahaha. Wrong. Boy Matt sucked this season, probably a lot to do with his offensive line and their garbage offensive scheme, definitely wrong on this one.

11. Trent Edwards also has seen a boost. It’s just the pre-season, I know, but I see him being a Top 20 guy, easily.

This should prove that the pre-season isn’t a place to judge offensive stars. Wrong again, Trent didn’t even make it out of the season as a starter.

12. When are people going to recognize Eddie Royal? This kid is going to be special. In his second season he’ll improve on his 91 catches, 980 yards, and five touchdowns. Yes, that means he’ll be even better without Cutler, folks.

Eddie didn’t improve on anything. Josh McDaniels lied to me, and I bought in completely, getting Royal in almost every single league I participated in. As you can guess, I didn’t dominate many leagues this season.

13. Last year was amazing for DeAngelo Williams. First the Panthers draft Jon Stewart in the 1st round, then Williams turns into the best fantasy running back in the league. Not a fluke, the guy is a very smart runner. He won’t match his TDs from last season, but his rushing yardage will shoot over the 1500 yard mark once again.

DeAngelo spent much of the season banged up, and didn’t get close to 1500 yards. Apparently it’s tough to go 1500+ back to back, as the wear and tear gets you down. Williams missed 3 full games as well as pieces of others and the cat managed just 1117 yards on the ground this season.

14. Everybody and their mother thinks Ronnie Brown is overrated going into 2009 because “half his points came in one game, blah, blah, blah”. What a joke. The fat lady hasn’t even written a song for this kid yet, he’s going to tear it up in the AFC East this season. Halfway through his 7th game in 2007, Brown was just 9 yards short of 1000 from scrimmage with 5 touchdowns. He was the only offensive threat on the field and he was still rushing for over 5 yards per carry. He’s a beast. He’s fully healthy and more than a year removed from his knee injury. This will easily be his best season. I predict over 1400 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns from the 27 year old with very few miles on his tires.

Well, yet another knee injury put Ronnie in the hospital once again, and the guy managed to miss 7 more games. He was over half way toward 1400 yards after 9 games, just under 750 with 8 touchdowns, so I was on to something – but injuries are part of the game, and Ronnie definitely didn’t get to my projections.

15. Speaking of the fat lady, these old guys aren’t dead yet: Each player, despite their avg. draft slot, will have solid years. Torry Holt (35th WR), Terrell Owens (12th WR), Clinton Portis (14th RB) (only 28 this season, but an OLD 28), and LT (7th RB) should all be good. At least 3 of the 4 will will finish above their average draft slot ranking.

No. I’m not even going to go into it. Holt was not even the best WR on his team. In fact, Mike Thomas finished with more fantasy point, and the rookie started as the #4 receiver. TO finished 27th amongst WRs, and Portis was a gong show. There it is, wrong on all accounts. Age is a factor, but then again, it might be getting stuck in a terrible offense that got these old guys down.

16. Youth Movement? Not this year, not for rookies anyway. After 4 rookie running backs finished in the top 20 in total rushing yards last season (3 in the Top 10), no more than one rookie will match that mark this season (none in the Top 10).

Only Knowshon Moreno, with 947 yards rushing, finished in the top 20. Beanie Wells got some nice production late, but his season only got him 176 carries and it’s tough to get in the Top 20 with that. After Beanie, it was LeSean McCoy finishing 35th in rushing with 635 yards. I got this one on the dot, last year was just crazy.

17. Julius Jones is getting picked late. Probably even later than he was before Edgerrin James got swooped up by the Hawks. But Jones will still be the man in Seattle, and that zone blocking scheme should be a good one for his Irish style. He once had 1084 rushing yards for the Cowboys and 4 touchdowns. I’m saying he finishes with more yards and scores than he did during his best season with Dallas. In fact, I’m willing to suggest he has 8 touchdowns or more in 2009.

The Hawks sucked, and while Jones had a couple good games, he managed just 2 touchdowns, and even though Mora insisted on giving him way more carries than the much more talented Justin Forsett, Jones didn’t get reach 700 yards this season, wrong again!

18. There are 25 running backs getting picked ahead of Darren McFadden. He out produces at least half of those guys, and makes it into the Top 12 this season. He’s moving up my board!

Yikes. It’s predictions like this that make it a tough year for fantasy Championships. I think I won just a single league, and it wasn’t because I drafted McFadden. Well, I did draft McFadden, but I dropped him for Ricky Williams and got to ride that out nicely.

19. Brandon Jacobs finishes the season with more carries and yards than he ever has in his career. Oh, and he at least matches those 15 scores from a season ago. That offensive line is beastly.

Nope, and Brandon didn’t ever really look that good. Ahmad Bradshaw was easily the best looking back for the Giants, and I don’t know what it was, but Jacobs certainly struggled all season long. Another miss – tough prediction year for me, that’s for sure.

20. What does Dallas do with all those TO targets this season? Roy Williams? Sure, Roy will get more targets, but a lot of those TO touches are going to Felix Jones. That means he’ll be much better than his average draft position. His ADP is 36, he’ll be top 20.

The young dynamic back couldn’t stay on the field, missing big portions of games and getting rested for the playoffs (where he dominated the Eagles in Round 1). He finished with 116 carries for 685 rushing yards, but just 19 catches. If the Cowboys knew what was good for them, they would have made my prediction accurate. He ended up 40th amongst RBs, actually 3 spots lower than his average draft position amongst his position.

21. People are drafting Vincent Jackson as if he will get the same numbers he got last season. So, a couple picks ahead of that, you should grab him. He will have better totals across the board, catches, yardage, touchdowns.

Vincent was awesome over the first 9 weeks of the season, getting targeted early and often and making the most of his looks. He went over 4 times out of his first 8 games, caught touchdowns in 6 of his first 8 games, and managed 7 scores over the first half. Vincent caught just two more scores over the final 8 games as his targets went way down during weeks 10-13, but he ende up with 9 more catches, nearly 100 more yards, and 2 more touchdowns meaning he made me look smart. Few and far between, I know.

22. Mark Sanchez (the rookie that was “not ready for the NFL” according to the “brilliant” Coach Carol at USC) will win at least 8 games as the Jets starting signal caller this season.

He didn’t blow up the fantasy world, but Mark won 9 and got the Jets to the playoffs. He also won his first two playoff games, and while people continue to show his poor touchdown to interception ratio and even go as far as to compare him to JaMarcus Russell, I’d like you to remember that I think he’ll be great one day, and at least he made my first prediction true.

23. Steve Slaton will outscore every sophomore running back not named Matt Forte. That’s right, those in love with McFadden’s upside, Chris Johnson’s speed, Kevin Smith, and Jon Stewart’s all around tools, Slaton is the guy I see being a stud this season.

Slaton missed his last 5 games, but that wouldn’t have mattered. After a few fumbles early, the Texans got this bright idea that they would just eliminate one of their most productive offensive players from the field. This didn’t work that well, and backs continued to fumble, but at least Steve Slaton owners had suicidal looks in their collective eye after Week 8.

24. Tim Hightower will be a better fantasy back than Beanie Wells – especially in PPR leagues. Beanie can’t catch. Beanie gets hurt. Tim isn’t my fave, not at all, but his fantasy stats will be better than the Cardinals’ first round pick’s numbers.

Got one right on the mark. Beanie finished 39th amongst running backs while the guy everybody wanted to forget put up pretty good statistics throughout, had nice consistency in the passing game, and ended up 17th amongst RBs, 20+ spots better than the guy drafted higher than him in every league.

25. The San Diego Chargers’ defense will once again be a Top 5 fantasy unit.

14th – so, nope. The Chargers started pretty slow, picked it up big time in the middle, then held on late, but were never a Top notch fantasy defense during the season. Wrong again.

26. Anquan Boldin > Roddy White (fantasy points).

Weird, Boldin didn’t stay healthy all season, and despite playing through pain often, the dynamic WR was visibly hobbled throughout the season. White started slow, but picked it up late and passed Boldin. White finished 10th amongst WRs while Boldin was 19th.

27. Derrick Ward, often drafted as the 37th RB overall. He’ll be at least 10 spots higher than that on the end-of-season running back rankings.

Nope. Ward finished well behind his own teammate and ended up 50th amongst RBs, even lower than that low RB draft position.

28. Mark Sanchez gets drafted ahead of Matt Hasselbeck in most fantasy leagues. I promise Matt will be better than Mark, in fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt doubles Mark in touchdowns. Shoot, right it down.

Well, Matt didn’t double Mark’s touchdowns – and Matt was terrible, but he did finish 40 points ahead of Sanchez in fantasy points. Matt’s 17 touchdowns didn’t double Mark’s 13 scores, but Matt was definitely the better value, though disappointing entirely.

29. Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, and Jason Witten will all finish ahead of Tony Gonzalez in the TE rankings.

Clark #1 – Gates #3 – Witten #5 – Tony G #6 – well, it was close, but I pulled one off here. Vernon Davis and Brent Celek crashed the party though, becoming great value picks for those that took chances on them late, Davis was #2 and Celek #4.

30. Anthony Gonzalez, Eddie Royal, along with Vincent and DeSean Jackson will all have more fantasy points than Braylon Edwards this season.

No, but I’m telling you, Gonzo would have had a great season if he played more than half a series on offense. Tough injury for me there too. Eddie Royal didn’t – but Vincent and DeSean blew well by Braylon this season. Two out of four doesn’t make a prediction come true.

That’s it, as promised, I’m first: 3 more prediction sessions on the way before the season begins…

Looking Back: Josh Revisits his 2009 Preseason NFL Predictions

It was an interesting season to say the least.  More than any other sport the fortunes of NFL teams rise and fall on their ability to avoid injury or have players on their roster that can step up to fill a void.  This same volatility makes predicting statistical achievement particularly difficult.  That said, the 2009 season was not my best effort.  Of my 30 preseason predictions I hit less than 50%.  From the look of things I have an innate ability to predict TE production but stay away if I’m talking QBs or Defense.  In terms of RBs and WRs … flip a coin.  I will say this for myself, however … when I miss, I miss HUGE (see Parker, Willie and Johnson, Larry).  So if you started your season by following my advice, I would like to say I’m sorry … and you’re welcome … and I hope we can do it again next year.

1.  Carson Palmer will return to prominence as a top-tier fantasy QB.  I am predicting 4,000 yards passing and at least 25 TDs for the Bengals signal-caller.

Not quite … Palmer finished as the #17 fantasy QB and compiled just 3,094 yards passing and 21 TDs … Ouch.  Tough to predict the Bengals newfound appreciation for the running game but Cedric Benson proved he is for real.

2.  In his second season as a pro, Kevin Smith will make the jump from rookie sensation to fantasy stud.  I think he’ll pile up 1,500 yards from scrimmage with 40 grabs and 12 TDs.

A disappointing sophomore campaign for Smith, as he was falling short even before his season ended with a gruesome knee injury.  His final tally was 1,156 yards from scrimmage, 40 catches and just 5 TDs.

3.  Chris Cooley will out-produce Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates.  This guy is just a good football player and there will be no shortage of targets with that receiving corps in DC.

Another predication derailed by injury, Cooley was playing well when his season was cut short.  That said, he would have needed a huge second half to leap above the production of proven studs Gonzo and Gates.

4.  The Seahawks will recapture the NFC West crown on the strength of a huge season by a receiver not named TJ.  Nate Burleson will catch 70 balls for 1,000+ yards and 7 TDs.

Ugh, the Hawks were tough to root for this year but Nasty Nate was fixin’ to make me look good with this pick until his season ended with – you guessed it – an injury.  Burleson finished with 63 catches for 812 yards and 3 TDs.

5.  Matt Leinart will throw for more yards and account for more touchdowns than incumbent starter Kurt Warner.  Thanks to a suspect defense, the Cards will still miss the playoffs.

Wrong, wrong, and wrong … the guys I thought would stay healthy got hurt, the one I thought would get hurt stayed healthy (mostly).  Another solid year from Kurt Warner kept Leinart off the field for another season.

6.  Although technically the #3 WR in Cincy, Chris Henry will produce like a #2 fantasy wide receiver.  Expect 50-60 grabs with at least 8 of those going for TDs.

Yikes, there are bad predictions and then there are my preseason efforts.  Before his untimely death mid-season, Chris Henry really wasn’t a major piece of the puzzle in Cincy (see Palmer, Carson).

7.  A forgotten man in the Saints attack last season, Marques Colston will remind owners that he is a top fantasy WR.  90+ catches and 1,200 yards in the 4^th round? … yes please!

A nice season for Colston overall, though he fell short of my lofty goals for him posting 70 catches for 1,074 yards and 9 TDs.  Though still Drew Brees’ favorite target, other threats kept Colston’s production in check.

8.  Hakeem Nicks has an outside shot to win ROY honors, and I think that he’ll come on strong as the season wears on.  Pencil him in for 850 yards and 6 TDs for the G-Men.

Were it not for the breakout campaign of Percy Harvin, Nicks would have been the most productive rookie WR.  As it was he came on strong late in the season, earning a starting spot and finishing with 790 yards and 6 TDs.

9.  Speaking of outstanding rooks, Mark Sanchez will get you 20 TDs and is a great late-round pick as a #2 QB.  Dynasty leaguers don’t wait too long on this kid, he’s going to be a good one.

As expected, Sanchez’s rookie season was a roller coaster ride.  He was brilliant at times and horrendous at times, but thanks to a terrific NY ground attack he had some protection on his way to 15 total TDs.

10.  Willie Parker has fallen off the map in a lot of fantasy drafts but he’s a good bet to contribute 1,500 total yards this season with 8-10 touchdowns … tremendous value late.

Can we just move along? … there are only so many times you can say you’re sorry before it starts to lose meaning, after all.  Not-so-fast Willie Parker was leap-frogged on the depth chart and totaled only 453 yards and 1 TD.

11.  Speaking of forgotten men, Ryan Grant will rebound in a big way for Green Bay.  You can go receiver early and nab Grant and his 1,300 yards and 10 TDs later on.

One of my few pieces of advice that worked out for owners this year, I myself grabbed Grant in the mid-rounds of a draft and was rewarded with his 1,253 rushing yards and 11 TDs … can’t beat that value.

12.  Steve Slaton is due for a sophomore slump.  He still carries nice value in PPR leagues, but not for where you’ll have to draft him to get him.  Don’t expect 16 healthy games, either.

Tough season for the former Mountaineer … Slaton was in and out of coach Gary Kubiak’s doghouse for fumbling and despite a nice mid-season stretch finished with just 854 total yards and may have lost his starting gig.

13.  How many 300-carry backs can you find outside of the first round? … Value, thy name is Clinton Portis.  The Skins meal ticket is slipping in drafts, not production.  1,400 and 10 TDs.

Garbage, thy name is Clinton Portis … I have been a big fan of Portis since he came into the league but he is a lot less entertaining when his play isn’t backing up his antics.  An uninspiring 494 yards and 1 TD before going on IR.

14.  Vincent Jackson finished with 59 catches for 1,098 yards and 7 TDs and didn’t become the #1 WR in San Diego until mid-season.  He finishes with more of all three in 2009. Hop on board before it’s too late, this guy is a beast.

When you’ve been wrong as many times as I was, the victories seem that much sweeter … V-Jax finished up the season with 68 catches for 1,167 yards and 9 TDs.  He also made some of the best catches of 2009.

15.  This is finally the season to go get Vernon Davis.  Nothing like getting top-10 production from the 20^th TE off the board.  I like Davis to reel in 50 balls for 700 yards and 5 TDs.

Now we’re talking … Vernon Davis was the monster we all envisioned several years ago when he was coming out of Maryland.  The centerpiece of the 49ers passing attack finished with 78 catches for 965 yards and 13 TDs.

16.  Speaking of underrated tight ends, Visanthe Shiancoe was a pleasant surprise last season but is still receiving no love.  If he’s there late grab him and his considerable (8 TDs) upside.

Once again, you’re welcome.  Amazing that a guy that snared 11 TDs can fly under the radar but with Sydney Rice’s breakout campaign and Percy Harvin working out of the slot, Shiancoe was Brett Favre’s red zone BFF.

17.  Starting RBs are overrated (at least when they have great backups) … let others spend top round picks on Gore, Jacobs and Williams then go get Coffee, Bradshaw and Stewart, each will approach 1,000 yards.

The jury is still out on Coffee (huge preseason, invisible regular season), but Bradshaw and Stewart proved their worth by out-performing their starting counterparts.  Ricky Williams deserves to be on this list as well.

18.  That said, I am buying what the 49ers are selling.  If he stays healthy Frank Gore has a shot to be the top fantasy point-scorer.  2,000 total yards and 15 TDs is not out of the question.

Somewhere along the way coach Mike Singletary must have sold his soul (somewhere Mike Martz is cackling) … The 49ers went to a spread attack mid-season and Gore’s numbers suffered.  Still, he ran up 1,526 yards and 13 TDs.

19.  Knowshon Moreno could be great at some point, but not this year and not for this team.  The Broncos are a gong show and I wouldn’t count on anything more than 800 yards and 5 TDs.

Gong!!! … Moreno was what I expected him to be, a decent chain-mover without a ton of big-play ability.  Still, if the Broncos lean more heavily on the youngster in the future, he could improve on his 947 yards and 7 TDs

20.  I love Jason Witten, but his numbers are due for a hit following TO’s departure.  Expect him to see plenty of double-teams unless Roy Williams can command some respect early.

Well, Roy Williams did not command much respect but thankfully for Witten owners Miles Austin arrived in a big way.  The reliable tight end improved on his catches (94) and receiving yards (1,030) but racked up just 2 TDs.

21.  I rank my fantasy RBs with dreads in this order:  Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Tim Hightower.  Close fades > Dreads.

CJ – Steven Jackson – Barber – Hightower – Lynch is what I meant … but with AP, MJD, Ray Rice, Thomas Jones, and Frank Gore taking 5 of the top 6 spots, the power of the fade is evident.  CJ owners, now is the time to sell high.

22.  I rank this receiver with dreads above all the running backs mentioned previously.  Larry Fitzgerald is a sure thing and keeps getting better.  Hello 1,600 yards and 18 TDs

Tough to call a season in which he caught 97 passes for 1,092 yards and 13 TDs a disappointment, but Fitz’s numbers fell off a bit this season.  That said, if Leinart is running the show next year they could slip even further.

23.  Ray Rice has the potential to be a top-15 running back as early as this season, especially in PPR league.  I expect a Slatonesque 1,500 total yards and 10 TDs for the diminutive fireball.

The kid is legit as a dual threat, runs tough between the tackles and is deadly in space.  I undersold him as a top-15 back … Rice finished #4 behind CJ, AP and MJD and totalled 2,041 total yards, 78 catches and 8 TDs.

24.  The Chargers D/ST will be a top-5 unit this season.  When you see the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders twice a year the odds are in your favor (getting Merriman back doesn’t hurt either).

Nope … not close.  The Chargers were crippled early with the loss of all-world DT Jamal Williams.  A less-than-healthy Shawne Merriman also resulted in a less-than-consistent pass rush which kills a fantasy D.

25.  Leon Washington will be the best fantasy option in the Jets backfield.  What he lacks in goal-line looks he will make up for in reception and receiving yards.

Ah, I was wondering where all those destructive injuries had gone.  Leon started off the season as his dynamic self, but his landing on IR opened the door for rookie Shonn Greene to prove his worth, especially this postseason.

26.  In his first season in the league, LeSean McCoy will get as many snaps as Brian Westbrook and will make the majority of the starts for the Eagles down the stretch.

True and true … a good predication but not overly useful to fantasy owners.  The pathetic excuse for a running game in Philly ties any RB’s value to their receptions.  I like McCoy going forward, but the Eagles can be tough to watch.

27.  I hate to say this, but I think Maurice Jones-Drew is actually being slightly over-valued in drafts.  The Jags offensive line is just that, but I still think MJD is good enough for 1,500 total yards and 12 total TDs.

MoJo was very reliable in his first season as the starter in Jacksonville.  That said, if they don’t get him some help on offense expect to see his YPC averages slip as the season wears on.  I’ll take the 1,765 total yards and 16 TDs, though.

28.  Nate Davis will make at least four starts for the 49ers this season and he will win at least three of those starts.  This kid from Ball State does everything well, winning most of all (Singletary needs winners, remember?).

Didn’t happen … and as a result the 49ers will head into another season not sure if they have a true franchise QB on their roster.  I don’t see Alex Smith’s ceiling being much higher than we saw this year, Davis deserves a shot.

29.  When drafting your running backs, avoid the muddy situations in Denver, New England, Tampa Bay and Cleveland … I don’t see a single 1,000 yard rusher in these backfields.

(Patting self on back) … Denver – 947, New England – 757, Tampa Bay – 821, Cleveland – 862 … Those are the high totals for RBs on those teams.  That said, things look brighter in Denver (Moreno) and Cleveland (Harrison).

30.  I think a return to prominence is in the cards for Larry Johnson.  He is the most talented player on the Chiefs roster and has a favorable schedule … look for him to turn back the clock with 1,200 yards rushing and double-digit TDs.

(Slapping self in face) … Serves me right for reaching far enough to include LJ in my predictions … And by the way, the most talented player on the Chiefs roster was Jamaal Charles … Can we just agree to forget about this one?

Fantasy Focus Review: Week 17 Fantasy Football

And Week 17 comes and it goes, and it leaves me at the top. I dominated the rankings this week, as my old uncle finished a lengthy fourth, while Josh and Ryan tied for 3rd – haha – A trio of top spots in the rankings gave me the final gold. Hope you enjoyed the new and improved focus! Here’s how the rest of the fantasy focus found its way….

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Ray Rice –Somebody went off against the Raiders, it just wasn’t Ray. Willis McGahee made the most of his time, going for 34 fantasy points and #2 RB in Week 17, Ray still had 12 fantasy points with 70 rushing yards… C-
2. Chris Johnson–  CJ finished 3rd amongst RBs, but this guy had 4000 carries in the last 10 weeks, careful next year folks… A
3. Jonathan Stewart – J-Stew was 11th ranked RB in Week 17, a nice day in limited duty. 18 points.  A-
4. Jay Cutler – Cutler finished out of the top spot by a single point, just one behind Brett, great finish. A+
5. Miles Austin– 16 fantasy points, 13th WR this week, in a big win for the Cowboys. B

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. DeSean Jackson –Just 7 fantasy points for Jackson in the Boys beatdown of the Eagles. Yuck. I bet he has a lot more next week… F
2. Carnell Williams– Caddy finished the season well, 21st RB in Week 17, a solid total, plus he finished the season healthy for the first time in a long time. C+
3. Santonio Holmes – Just five points for Holmes, as Hines was the main guy getting the rock in that win. F
4. Hines Ward – 22nd WR this week for Hines with 14 fantasy points, a nice final week in a great season for him. B+
5. Sydney Rice – Sidney blew up on the dying Giants, finishing 2nd amongst WRs with 29 fantasy points.  A+

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Jerome Harrison –#8 overall, this guy has carried a double load over the last 3 games, maybe that’s because Magini realizes how stupid he was for not giving Jerome the ball earlier. A+
2. Matt Forte – Matt finished 14th amongst RBs with 15 fantasy points, a solid day to end a tough year. B+
3. Arian Foster– 4th RB this week, 28 fantasy points for the former Vol, helped me place in the money… A+
4. Quentin Ganther– Ganther was a miss again as Roc Cartwright was the lead ball carrier in that backfield. F
5. Devin Aromashadu– Two touchdowns helped the youngsters cause, I think we’ll remember the end of this year as the start of Devin’s legit productions as a #2 WR with upside… A+

Super Sleepers for Playoff Push…

1. Donald Brown – Mike Hart got the carries, as Brown didn’t do much with his 4 early carries, not gaining a single yard. F-
2. Sammy Morris –Sammy wasn’t the hot back, and suddenly it was Fred Taylor getting the goal line carries. F
3. Shonn Greene –He had solid production for 14 carries, 62 yards, but no touchdown made him very mediocre. C-
4. Greg Camarillo – Another disappointing day for Greg, got me again. F

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Colts Starters– Colts starters were all worth sitting, maybe Dallas Clark was worth a play… A
2. Patriots Starters– No normal Pats fantasy studs went off, but Randy had 5 grabs for 75 yards. Justin Edelman came on after Welker’s injury to go over 100 yards on 10 catches. Fred Taylor had 2 touchdowns. Medium day, and Brady did nothing. B+
3. Bengals Starters – Well, a lot of them played, but I couldn’t have been more right on this one. A+
4. Saints Starters – You bet. It was time to rest for the Saints, all the way to 13-3… A+
5. Packers Starters– I missed here. All the guys had decent days, nobody went off, but Grant had 2 touchdowns, Rodgers threw for 235 and a touchdown, just mediocre days for guys aside from Grant. B-

***I’m Done!!!***

Week 17 QBs Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 4	Josh Arsenault 3	Papa Weimer 2	Lucky Lester 1
Ben Roethlisberger 3	Matt Schaub 6	Jay Cutler 2	Jay Cutler 2
Donovan McNabb 21	Donovan McNabb 21	Tom Brady 23	Eli Manning 33
Matt Ryan 12	Ben Roethlisberger 3	Matt Schaub 6	Ben Roethlisberger 3
Eli Manning 33	Brett Favre 1	Vince Young 25	Matt Schaub 6
Jason Campbell 5	Mark Brunell 29	Tony Romo 6	David Garrard 6

Week 17 RBs Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 1	Josh Arsenault 3	Papa Weimer 4	Lucky Lester 2
Chris Johnson 3	Chris Johnson 3	Chris Johnson 3	Ray Rice 17
Frank Gore 6	Adrian Peterson 17	Adrian Peterson 17	Chris Johnson 3
Carnell Williams 21	Maurice Jones Drew 28	Jerome Harrison 8	Frank Gore 6
Adrian Peterson 17	Jonathan Stewart 11	Matt Forte 14	Jonathan Stewart 11
Ray Rice 17	Thomas Jones 9	Maurice Jones Drew 28	Maurice Jones Drew 28

Week 17 WRs Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 3	Josh Arsenault 4	Papa Weimer 2	Lucky Lester 1
Roddy White 9	Andre Johnson 33	Andre Johnson 33	Miles Austin 13
Andre Johnson 33	DeSean Jackson 48	Austin Miles 13	Andre Johnson 33
Michael Crabtree 46	Santonio Holmes 60	DeSean Jackson 48	Roddy White 9
Calvin Johnson 5	Sydney Rice 2	Steve Smith (NYG) 16	Hines Ward 22
Santonio Holmes 60	Steve Smith (NYG) 16	Calvin Johnson 5	Devin Aromashadu 4

Week 17 TEs Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 2	Josh Arsenault 1	Papa Weimer 4	Lucky Lester 3
Vernon Davis 3	Brent Celek 7	Greg Olsen 3	Jason Witten 6
Jason Witten 6	Vernon Davis 3	Brent Celek 7	Vernon Davis 3
Vinsanthe Shiancoe 2	Kellen Winslow 13	Vernon Davis 3	Tony Gonzalez 19
Tony Gonzalez 19	Heath Miller 7	Tony Gonzalez 19	Brent Celek 7
Kellen Winslow 13	Jason Witten 6	Kevin Boss 52	Kellen Winslow 13

Week 17 DSTs Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 3	Josh Arsenault 2	Papa Weimer 4	Lucky Lester 1
Ravens 8	Ravens 8	Panthers 9	Vikings 4
49ers 3	49ers 3	Bears 20	Titans 10
Broncos 22	Jets 2	49ers 3	Ravens 8
Titans 10	Steelers 15	Cardinals 24	Jets 2
Falcons 10	Bears 20	Broncos 22	Panthers 9

Week 17s Overall Writer Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 3	Josh Arsenault 3	Papa Weimer 4	Lucky Lester 1
1.QBs 4	1.QBs 3	1.QBs 2	1.QBs 1
2.RBs 1	2.RBs 3	2.RBs 4	2.RBs 2
3.WRs 3	3.WRs 4	3.WRs 2	3.WRs 1
4.TEs 2	4.TEs 1	4.TEs 4	4.TEs 3
5.DST 3	5.DST 2	5.DST 4	5.DST 1

Who did we miss? Always some big surprises by years’ end, and while we missed a couple of those, I think we missed a couple easy ones too…

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick (4th – taking advantage of the Colts youngsters), Aaron Rodgers (9th) Daunte Culpepper (10th – nice having old baby-hands in the Top 10 again, the guy has had some tough luck, that’s for sure)

RB: Jamaal Charles (1st, the cat goes for 256 yard rushing and isn’t on a single list, awesome), Willis McGahee (2nd, I thought Rice would have a huge day, right team, wrong back), Fred Jackson (3rd, looks like I was a week early, Jackson also busted over 200 yards on the ground), Arian Foster (4th, I liked him as a sleeper, but looks like he was even better than that), Knowshon Moreno (7th, despite losing to the Chiefs, Moreno did work, scoring 2 TDs and having his best fantasy day of the season), Jason Snelling (10th, the cat runs hard, no doubt)

WR: Jabar Gaffney (1st, the guy had one hell of a day in the Broncos loss), Malcom Floyd (3rd, Floyd was Volek’s main target), Julian Edelman (5th, Welker went down, Edelman stepped in and produced very well), Devon Bess (7th, good day for the highest scoring Dolphins WR), Patrick Crayton (7th, good day all around), Jacoby Jones (9th, a big drop but an even bigger catch highlighted Jones’ big day)

TE: Zach Miller (1st, the Jacksonville version of the name put up 26 fantasy points to lead all TEs), Joel Dreessen (3rd, doing his best Owen Daniels impersonation, Joel put up a 20 spot in the Jags big loss)

D/ST: Buffalo Bills (4th – took advantage of those Colts back-ups), Cowboys (6th, gave it to the Eagles real nice like)

Fantasy Focus Review: Week 16 Fantasy Football Revisited

Week 16 saw Josh Arsenault take the top spot again, and I’m beginning to think he’s making a run at my fantasy guru crown – not liking it one bit. Week 16 was a tough one, the finals for most fantasy leagues, and a couple key players took a seat, not caring one bit about fantasy implications. However, I mentioned some must-have pickups in my sleeper sections, and I know a couple worked out, pushing some fantasy folks to championships. Here’s the review.

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Fred Jackson – Mr. Jackson had a really down week for a Bills team that got throttled. 6pts…  F-
2. Chris Johnson–  Him and AP tied for 4th this week. And with 26 points they were just a few out of 1st. A
3. Aaron Rodgers – Rodgers actually finished 13th amongst QBs with just 15 fantasy points. Poop. C-
4. Adrian Peterson – My man AP was 4th amongst RBs in Week 16, just 3 fantasy points out of first. A
5. Philip Rivers – Prince Philip was 7 points better than Rodgers, putting up 22, but good for just the 8th QB. B-

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Beanie Wells –15th RB in Week 16, ahead of Benson, Ray Rice, and Jones-Drew. B
2. Ricky Williams– 28th ranked RB in Week 16, I wasn’t impressed with his numbers at all. C-
3. Jason Snelling – I expected Snelling to do lots of work against the Bills, but Buffalo ganged up on the run and limited him to 7 fantasy points. 43rd ranked RB. F
4. Hines Ward – I think Hines has a great game against his favorite foes.
5. Greg Jennings – Tough season, but the upside is against Seattle on Sunday.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Larry Johnson –Larry had just one fantasy points as I completely whiffed, I thought they’d give Benson a rest, maybe next week! Sorry… F
2. Pierre Thomas – Thomas got hurt, but before going down early, he managed 12 fantasy points. Solid. B
3. Vince Young– Vince finally tallied up a stinker, good for just 7 points and in the high twentys amongst QBs. F
4. Jon Stewart–I give you the #1 ranked fantasy running back in Week 16… Good sleeper indeed. A+
5. Fred Davis– He had just 4 fantasy points as the Redskins got throttled. F

Super Sleepers for Playoff Push…

1. Jerome Harrison – He’s still the best runner in Cleveland, and was ranked 10th getting plenty of carries in Week 16. A+
2. Quinton Ganther – Everyone should have kept sleeping when it came to picking up Ganther. 3 pts. F
3. David Thomas – Thomas had 7 fantasy points before getting hurt, not a bad day for a TE, 16th overall. C+
5. Greg Camarillo – Under 10 fantasy points for the 2nd straight week, miss. D-
6. Deon Butler – The Hawks were almost as terrible as this pick, wait, they were even worse. F

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Peyton Manning– There you have it, I said you’d hate or love me, and you better love me for this one. A+
2. David Garrard– 21st amongst QBs, not startable, Matt Moore, Orton, Henne, Alex Smith, and Cassel all played better. A-
3. Reggie Wayne – 63rd overall, you’re welcome for the kind advice here, hopefully it made up for bad advice earlier. A
4. Thomas Jones –Jones finished with 16 fantasy points, 13th amongst RBs, just a couple points behind… D
5. LaDainian Tomlinson– LT. Yeah, I missed on both these guys as a touchdown each certainly helped the fantasy totals. F

Week 16 NFL Player Rankings

Week 16 QBs Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 2	Josh Arsenault 1	Papa Weimer 4	Lucky Lester 3
Philip Rivers 8	Kurt Warner 6	Aaron Rodgers 13	Aaron Rodgers 13
Aaron Rodgers 13	Brett Favre 8	Tom Brady 1	Philip Rivers 8
Tom Brady 1	Matt Schaub 10	Drew Brees 12	Ben Roethlisberger 17
Drew Brees 12	Aaron Rodgers 13	Vince Young 25	Matt Schaub 10
Alex Smith 15	Drew Brees 12	Philip Rivers 8	Tom Brady 1

Week 16 RBs Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 1	Josh Arsenault 4	Papa Weimer 2	Lucky Lester 3
Chris Johnson 4	Chris Johnson 4	Chris Johnson 4	Fred Jackson 45
Frank Gore 7	Jason Snelling 43	Adrian Peterson 5	Chris Johnson 4
Ricky Williams 28	Frank Gore 7	Cedric Benson 15	Adrian Peterson 5
Adrian Peterson 5	Thomas Jones 13	Pierre Thomas 22	Jonathan Stewart 1
Ray Rice 19	Pierre Thomas 22	Maurice Jones Drew 21	Beanie Wells 15

Week 16 WRs Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 4	Josh Arsenault 1	Papa Weimer 2	Lucky Lester 3
Chad Ochocinco 29	Larry Fitzgerald 18	Andre Johnson 9	Andre Johnson 9
Andre Johnson 9	Andre Johnson 9	Randy Moss 4	Anquan Boldin 7
Michael Crabtree 43	Steve Smith (CAR) 10	Anquan Boldin 7	Wes Welker 4
Vincent Jackson 35	Marques Colston 29	Bradon Marshall 40	Hines Ward 59
Wes Welker 4	Roddy White 1	Wes Welker 4	Greg Jennings 18

Week 16 TEs Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 4	Josh Arsenault 2	Papa Weimer 3	Lucky Lester 1
Vernon Davis 12	Antonio Gates 5	Dallas Clark 15	Jason Witten 3
Dallas Clark 15	Brent Celek 1	Brent Celek 1	Vernon Davis 12
Antonio Gates 5	Dallas Clark 15	Vernon Davis 12	Tony Gonzalez 26
Tony Gonzalez 26	Tony Gonzalez 26	Tony Gonzalez 26	Jermichael Finley 9
Kellen Winslow 9	Vernon Davis 12	Antonio Gates 5	Antonio Gates 5

Week 16 DSTs Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 1	Josh Arsenault 2	Papa Weimer 4	Lucky Lester 3
Packers 6	Packers 6	Packers 6	Vikings 24
Bengals 10	Cowboys 8	Ravens 18	Bengals 10
Saints 13	Falcons 1	Raiders 24	Packers 6
Cardinals 4	Cardinals 4	Cardinals 4	Saints 13
49ers 1	Vikings 24	Vikings 24	49ers 1

Week 16s Overall Writer Rankings

Ryan Kauffman 2	Josh Arsenault 1	Papa Weimer 4	Lucky Lester 3
1.QBs 2	1.QBs 1	1.QBs 4	1.QBs 3
2.RBs 1	2.RBs 4	2.RBs 2	2.RBs 3
3.WRs 4	3.WRs 1	3.WRs 2	3.WRs 3
4.TEs 4	4.TEs 3	4.TEs 2	4.TEs 1
5.DST 1	5.DST 2	5.DST 4	5.DST 3

Who did we miss? In short, we missed these guys…

QB: Matt Ryan (4th), Matt Moore (5th), Kyle Orton (6th)

RB: Lex Hilliard (Tied for 1st), Darren Sproles (3rd), Brandon Jackson (6th), Caddy Williams (8th)

WR: Devin Aromashodu (2nd), Jabar Gaffney (5th)

TE: Zach Miller (2nd), Todd Heap (3rd), Desmond Clark (6th)

D/ST: Jets (3rd), Panthers (5th)

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