Dynasty/Keeper Rankings TOP 112: 2009 Fantasy Football

April 2, 2009 by luckylester · 1 Comment

Its quite unlike me to do a fantasy football rankings article toward the end of March, close enough to the draft that I should be focussed solely on the new cats entering the league, but unable to really include them because of the reality that their new uniforms have yet to be selected, and thus their bright future yet to be predicted. But this is going to be different.

There have been a number of emails asking me to do a fantasy article ranking players in a Dynasty League format. Dynasty leagues are those in which you keep all of the players that you draft, therefor taking ages, contracts, and their long term future more into account than in your yearly re-draft leagues or even leagues with a small number of keepers (1-3). Re-drafts in a dynasty format are often just rookie/free agent drafts and the veteren players only change teams if moved by their respective owner, either to the waiver wire or through a trade. This format has become more and more popular as it gives fantasy owners the feeling of team ownership, building from the ground up, often choosing to decide between winning now or building for later. It also gives losing teams something to look forward to, or the ability to trade crafty veterans for youth moving forward. It’s a whole new fantasy world, no doubt about it. You’re looking for solid production for at least 3 seasons - that allows you to continue to build through drafts and win now.

In many dynasty leagues that are starting this season, there will be a veteran draft in a snake format followed by a rookie draft in the opposite snake format. 1-12 and back for one, then 12-1 and back for the next. It evens out the board a bit, giving the teams drafting late a chance to make up for their lack of Top-5 power and take a blue-chip rookie going forward. But we’ll talk about rookies in the next few months, and closer to the start of the 2009 season.

I am ranking these players based on a format that starts this lineup: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, D. That format gives wide receivers a little added value based on the fact that you start 3 of them compared to just 2 RBs. Also, the point system is a PPR (point per reception) format, which many leagues have moved to. That also gives WRs a little added bonus, the same goes for pass catching running backs. QBs get 6 points for touchdowns just like everyone else, and other than that, the scoring is very normal. Under this scoring format last season, the top 4 point scoring options were Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, and Kurt Warner - in that order. Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald were the only non-quarterbacks in the Top 8, and DeAngelo Williams finished with 6 more points than Matt Forte to take the running back title. That doesn’t mean QBs hold more value than RBs, same with WRs, but it does put points into perspective a little bit.

I won’t be ranking D’s or K’s because I don’t care enough to do it. Also there’s some clutter in the middle a bit, that I argued with myself about a lot, but that’s the order I went with and I’ll own it. Throw in a comment (or email my uncle -papaweimer50@hotmail.com, i pretty much run his old pathetic life anyway - haha) and let me know what you think. Can’t fit them all in 112 spots…

Without further jib-jab and point scoring hog-wash, these are my 2009 dynasty fantasy rankings pre-draft. This is, more or less, how I think they’ll rate out over the next three seasons combined.

Maurice Jones-Drew (absolute stud, and will get more carries and touches this season, just like Josh said, this guy’s point per touch numbers are absurd)
Adrian Peterson (most people’s number one, should have his best year next season)
Matt Forte (lots of touches for Matt, especially through the air, great feet for a big guy)
Chris Johnson (Some people thought he was too small, the Titans didn’t, they win)
Michael Turner (Justifiably some say he’s #1, his age and full load drop him a few spots in my Dynasty rankings)
Steven Jackson (still very young and very talented - not much help in St. Louis, but the talent is there)
Larry Fitzgerald (this guy is basically unstoppable)
DeAngelo Williams (I’ve always liked his running style, and despite the great back-up behind him, he still ranks high)
Andre Johnson (the only other non RB in my Top 10, AJ big brother’s DBs all year long)
Marion Barber (he’s not going to get picked this high in drafts, but a return to prominence for MBIII is almost a guarantee)
Calvin Johnson (if he were on a better team, this guy would be fighting Fitz, still his per touch numbers are awesome and he’s only getting better as that terrible Lions team improves - if Cutler goes there, watch out)
Frank Gore (always one of my favorites, the center point of a run first offense, talent high, but injuries keep him out of the Top 10)
Greg Jennings (young, strong, great young QB, the more touches he gets the better)
Steve Slaton (some people see Slaton as a 3rd Down back, too small, but he’ll always be better than Fragile Reggie)
Brandon Jacobs (Jacobs runs too hard to stay injury free, despite being the size of a D-end, but while he’s in he’s good for 100 yards and a TD - plus he’s young)
Reggie Bush (if I trusted Sean Payton to do the right thing, he’d be lower, still in a PPR league he’s a solid play 20th RB last season missing 6+ games - + meaning he missed most of a couple other games)
Roddy White (Roddy deserves more credit - he’s a stud - a go to guy for a great young QB on an improving team)
Anquan Boldin (a couple donkeys say Boldin isn’t a #1, haha, I hope he goes somewhere else and proves everyone wrong)
Steve Smith (His age - and physicality - drops him a bit, but he’s that close to Roddy and ‘Quan - and as fun to watch as anyone in the league - look how good he makes Delhomme look sometimes)
Phillip Rivers (So what if he throws marshmallows, his team is turning pass happy, plays in a terrible division, and is just 27 years old - he’ll toss 40 TDs one of these years - and we’re the exact same age, to the day - it’s fate! ha)
Marques Colston (if I trusted Sean Payton to do the right thing, he’d be higher)
Kevin Smith (He won’t go this high, I promise, but invest now and you’ll reap the benefits of this talented back later)
Brandon Marshall (If it weren’t for his ability to “find himself in bad situations” - hide and seek champ - he’d rank higher)
Clinton Portis (Clinton will be 28 in September, going on 32 - I love the guy’s fight, but that drops the talented back into the 20s)
Drew Brees (This guy plays tricks on defenses - the only problem is that I don’t know how much longer that idiot running this team will have a head coaching job, and another guy would surely run a more conservative and smarter offense)
Ryan Grant (He may have struggled a bit last season, but he’s young and this offense will get better and rely on him more heavily next season)
Joseph Addai (I can’t quite give up on Addai yet, but he’s never really impressed me as a runner. He’s thrown up some solid stat lines, but aside from pure numbers he doesn’t impress me as much as he does others)
Peyton Manning (Elder Manning is 33, but still has a handful of good years left in him - but he’ll be 36 in 3 years, and you never know how age, and a new coach, will change a guy)
Ronnie Brown (Ronnie will go under the radar in drafts, and this might even be a little low for one of the best all around backs in the league)
Tony Romo (I might take Romo over Manning, but I wonder the impact of losing TO and how it will effect Tony, still a top flight QB though, and young)
Tom Brady (Nobody does it like Tom - but his knee still has questions, and this team can’t be young forever)
Reggie Wayne (he’s actually getting up there in age a bit, 31 or so, he’ll have a couple real good years, then start to die off, which is why he falls a bit now)
Dwayne Bowe (Dwayne Bowe, watch Anquan Boldin films, that’s going to be you in a year or two - Bowe could break into the Top 10 this year)
Aaron Rodgers (Explosive young arm with a great receiving corps and an improving offense - only his second year - could be great)
Darren McFadden (I don’t care what people say, this is probably too low - still, I can’t put a Raider higher than Bo Jackson’s old number - Bo knows Al Davis is a team killing psycho path!)
Eddie Royal (this looks like a reach now, but he’s like Wes Welker with elite speed and great maneuverability)
Matt Ryan (this may be a reach, but I’m ranking for the next 3 years, and I’d love to have Matty Ice when he matures)
Randy Moss (Randy’s old, but still basically unguardable with Tom Brady hucking footballs - only a couple real good years left though which drops him a bit)
Marshawn Lynch (Obviously keep an eye on his situation, the kid will be suspended, and has been a question mark since draft day - on the football field he’s a great RB option)
Braylon Edwards (very good player when he’s on, yet quite drop-happy and not as physical as his body - should be much better than he was last season, and still very young - doesn’t have great speed though)
Derrick Ward (Could be an interesting time share in Tampa, but they brought Ward in to be the guy, and though he’s never been a beacon of health, he’s a very physical runner with good vision, and this O-line is underrated - he’s a young 29 though)
Jonathan Stewart (Might seem ridiculous, but I’d rather have JS than Westbrook or LT, and this guy’s a backup)
Brian Westbrook (This is where age shows it’s ugly face a bit, Westy might be a Top 5 guy this coming season but he’ll be 30 during this year and has always had health issues - still a great player though, just don’t overbid in Dynasty Leagues)
LaDainian Tomlinson (I think LT has at least one really good season left in him, remember Michael Turner just had an unreal season while LT really struggled - and by the way, they were only 7 fantasy point apart - LT still has it, for at least another year)
Vincent Jackson (Now’s the time, before Phillip uses Jackson as his number one for a full season)
Jason Witten (I don’t think much of TEs, but Witten is the #1 in Dallas, don’t be confused by Jerry telling you it’s Roy Williams - oh, and Witten is a flat out stud)
TJ Houshmanzadeh (it’s unbelievable how solid his numbers were last year despite being forked in one of the worst offenses in football - he’s perfect for the Seahawks and unless he’s cursed with injuries like all Hawks’ receivers, he should be solid - but he’s 32 this season - which drops him a bit)
Carson Palmer (remember when he was in the Peyton, Tom, and Drew draft area? Well, he’ll get back there - this guy has all the tools - probably a good time to invest)
Wes Welker (he might not be flashy, but he’s a PPR dynamo and very good at what he does, not PPR, not as good)
Matt Cassel (risky? maybe - but I’ll risk it on a leader I really like on a team with talent to catch passes and a new offensive genius as his head coach - not as risky as it may sound as I agree with McDaniels, I’d rather have Cassel than Cutler)
Jay Cutler (Jay might have been higher before he pouted his way out of Denver, I’m just not impressed with grown men acting like entitled little bitches, what can I say - still, he’s a great talent with a rocket arm)
Willis McGahee (sometimes sportswriters take chances, I’m taking one on a guy I don’t like all that much, I’m saying Willis turns it around and finishes well above this ranking - still, the risk brings him down a bit)
Matt Schaub (this is the season for Matt to lead his team to the playoffs and stay injury free, just that alone will put him in the Top 10 QBs)
Antonio Gates (Gates is moving fast toward 30, and his hoops background is rearing it’s ugly head - for those of you in fantasy basketball, you know exactly what I mean - still, he’s a touchdown machine and Rivers knows it)
Ben Roethlisberger (Big Ben will be better this season, he just needs to stay healthier, and improved line will help that)
DeSean Jackson (I like him a lot, and think he’ll be a very good one in Philly, despite his tiny frame)
Felix Jones (something tells me he’ll get used more this season, now might be a good time to get this speedy young runner)
Santonio Holmes (interesting cat, but very, very good - should see more balls, but don’t overpay for Super Bowl glory)
Donovan McNabb (Right above TO, planned that - McNabb will be an old 33 this season, and with no sure contract situation and last years’ struggles, I can’t guarantee anything form Donovan, except that he’s one of the best QBs in the league on a pretty damn good football team)
Terrell Owens (A one year contract interests me always, but he’ll likely never get a longer one, still - one of the best WRs playing every single season for next year’s contract - I’ll take a chance on him, even in Buffalo - he’s older, no doubt, but in pretty good shape anyway)
Lee Evans (Despite Edwards’ struggles, I still think he’ll be solid - add TO as a guy to take some pressure off Evans and I think Lee has a nice year - even if TO leaves next season, Evans will still be an elite talent)
Eli Manning (I hate to do it, but I had to include Pouty-face in here somewhere, it’s personal, so he might be better than this)
Santana Moss (In the 2nd season of Zorn’s system, this whole offense will move more efficiently, and Moss will benefit - turns 30 this year, but WRs should go worry free until 33 or so)
Roy Williams (he’s young, has had a couple really good seasons, is the #1 in Dallas on a solid offensive team with a very good young quarterback - hell, this is too low - but there’s obviously some risk here, a guy with more ballsy would put him at 44)
Antonio Bryant (I just can’t be sure about Bryant - what a great finish, scoring more points over the last 10 games than any receiver in football, that has to be worth something - he’s this far down because, well, he was out of football the year before last, can’t ignore that really)
Bernard Berrian (steal on draft day I think - probably should rank him a little higher, I actually like Sage throwing him the ball)
Anthony Gonzalez (something tells me that Anthony will see a lot of balls over the next 3 years, and very well could rate out higher than this)
Donnie Avery (there’s no doubt in my mind that this kid will be the #1 in St. Louis next season, great upside there, but this team should struggle for a couple years at least - still, better to risk on upside)
Chad Ocho-Cinco (you’ll be able to get him cheap, he’s getting older, he says one thing and does another and he changed his name to a fake spanish number - all that being said, he’s still #85 and gets his QB back this season)
Jericho Cotchery (do I like Cotchery? you bet - do I like Kellen Clemmens? not a chance - but Cotchery is still a nice receiver and should average 80 grabs over the next 3 years, so this might be low for him - not great upside here though)
Joe Flacco (Maybe he should go higher than this, his future is bright, that’s for sure. Still, Mason is aging and I’m not sure there’s another great offensive player on that roster)
David Garrard (I still don’t see any receiving help for this poor guy, but his O-line should be way better this season - and despite what people think, he was pretty decent as a starting option last year - 12th overall)
Rashard Mendenhall (he’ll go really late in drafts this year, what a time to get him, I still think he’s right there - talentwise - with anybody else from last year’s super talented class, this is too low, but he’s still risky)
Domenik Hixon (he might not be a #1, and I doubt the Giants will let that happen, but I like this kid as a solid HR threat #2 and I expect him to play a nice roll in NY over the next couple years - I like him more than the other WRs on that roster)
Matt Hasselbeck (how many years does Matty have left? his back might have a better answer than me - but he’ll be solid as long as he’s still around - the Hawks offense will be much improved this season)
Deion Branch (good player, injury troubles have held him back, and he’s not a #1, but now he doesn’t have to be, and he’s still young enough to be good in the Hawks passing attack)
Pierre Thomas (if I trusted Sean Payton, he’d be a heck of a lot higher - if he ever moves teams, he shoots way up the chart)
Leon Washington (he’s talented enough to take a chance, but I don’t know if his coaches will give him the #1 job, and Thomas Jones was successful last season - still, this young offensive line is talented and getting better, and Washington has at least as much upside as Darren Sproles)
Fred Jackson (Fred is a very good player that will probably get lots of time with Marshawn doing dumb things, a little risk could go along way with this kid)
Thomas Jones (Yeah, I ranked his back-up ahead of him, so what - Jones is aging and while I still like him, he’s not really impressing the new staff with his hold-out threats)
Tony Gonzalez (he may have a couple more years, but he’s in as good a shape as most 25 year olds, and even if he plays just 2 more he’ll rank out higher than most 3 year TEs)
Dallas Clark (he’ll be one of Peyton’s top targets with Marvin gone, and he’s a pretty sure thing to be in the Top 5 over the next few years)
Kellen Winslow (I like him better than Dallas Clark, but it’s very close, and Dallas has the QB advantage and health on his side, so Kellen moves behind him)
Lance Moore (if I trusted Sean Payton, Lance wouldn’t be this high)
Hines Ward (all he does is do the same good things year after year after year, consistently from game to game, and he’ll always be underrated - even though he’s 33 and plays a more physical football than most receivers, aging him faster perhaps, still, this is probably too low for a sure thing)
Steve Breaston (he’ll be a #2 somewhere, if not in Arizona next season, then sometime soon down the line, he’s good enough to hold on to)
Ted Ginn Jr. (could be a very good WR, he showed flashes last season, but there’s still enough question to keep him behind a lot of receivers)
Chris Cooley (what a character - Cooley is a top notch receiver that should be even better in his 2nd season in this system)
Sage Rosenfels (I think he’ll be good - that’s right, will probably draft him in more than a few leagues as my back-up - lots of risk here, but lots of upside too)
John Carlson (His rookie year was a big success, he blocks well so he’ll always be on the field which makes him a solid red-zone touchdown target)
Dustin Keller (probably a better receiver than Carlson, but not as physical and not as good of a QB, still this kid’s upside has a higher ceiling than JC’s)
Trent Edwards (It’s tough to say, but I like Trent and think his sophomore slump will be exactly that - something you look back at and say, that was an aberration and this kid is going to be good - still, anybody in charge of Buff’s offense has risk)
Chris Chambers (I wonder what happend last season - Chris played in every game and had just 33 grabs for 462 yards and 5 scores - I’m willing to bet he improves those numbers next season, he’s only 31 this season, but just incase, he’s not ranked high enough to get a bunch of crap for)
Brady Quinn (here’s to hoping he goes to Denver and succeeds - still, I’ve never been sold on Brady)
Mark Clayton (the former first round pick had a nice thing going with Flacco, his second 7 games were worth 31 fantasy points - his last 9 were good for 110)
Torry Holt (we’ll see where he signs, he’s aging for sure, but I’m not ready to believe he’s done, he’s always open)
Owen Daniels (not much not to like about this kid, except that he’s a TE - still, he’s very consistent which is rare for TEs not named Gonzo, Witten, Clark, and Gates)
Donald Driver (old but effective, but for how long? not three years is my answer)
Derrick Mason (old but effective, but for how long? not three years is my answer)
Jason Campbell (probably shouldn’t be this low, but after the first 12-15 QBs, what can you do, i wouldn’t mind having him to be a back-up on my squad over the next few seasons)
Michael Clayton (maybe this is nuts, but with Gruden gone I think Clayton’s not so “puckered up” as he was over the last few years, and the kid has enough talent to succeed)
Josh Morgan (talented enough to do it, offensive passing attack a question in San Fran, still, I like this kid a lot)
Kevin Walter (effective, but a white wide receiver nonetheless, sorry if I can’t believe)
Miles Austin (I have to think he’ll get enough looks to be fantasy worthy, and his upside is greater than Patrick Crayton’s)
James Jones (I’ve always liked him a ton, he fell behind a little bit last season, but he’ll be a nice #2 in this league some time over the next 3 seasons)
Jeremy Shockey (gotta wonder about this werid-o, never been a fan, but if he stays healthy, and out of the dog house, he’s talented enough)
Zach Miller (good young red zone target, if the Raiders ever get there he’ll be a solid option)
Laurence Maroney (worth a pick late in dynasty leagues, I have always loved his talent but he can’t stay on the field and his HC isn’t a huge fan)
Chad Pennington (he needed to go on the list, I just don’t think he has more than one season as a starter)
JaMarcus Russell (you have to feel bad for a kid that gets stuck in Oakland - I believe JaMarcus!)
Plaxico Burress (I think Plax was/is stupid - no doubt about that - however, mando-mins are the stupidest thing ever and should be abolished - he’s a super talented cat, but prison time is on the horizon which means his career could be shut down)
Michael Vick (Yeah, he’s on the list, he’s an athletic freak and he did his time - get the hell over it - I’m a dog lover and after a guy spends time in jail for what he did, has to start his life and career over, I’m going to wish him the best)

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Filed Under: NFL Player Rankings
Tagged: 2009 Fantasy Football, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, Drew Brees, Dynasty Leagues, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Rankings, Matt Forte, Maurcie Jones Drew, Micheal Turner, NFL Player Rankings, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush

The NFL Mock Draft (New Mock!!!)

March 26, 2009 by luckylester · 1 Comment

Alright, news and notes are flying around, and the draft is a month away. I can’t wait. My newest mock draft takes into account the most recent happenings in the NFL (as of March 24th), how I rank the players, as well as team needs, team histories, and the dirt on what’s been going down during workouts and scout evaluations. Dream big!!!

1. Detroit Lions- Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia: The Lions probably have to take Stafford here. I don’t like the pick for them, I think they can wait to get a quarterback next year, or even later in the draft, but it is what it is, and they have no future stud quarterback and they are a floundering franchise, and they have the top pick in a class that has no clear number one - so they’ll do what almost any other franchise would do in that situation and grab the big upside quarterback, and they’ll likely find themselves right back in this spot next year with a quarterback that they’re still not sure about, but maybe there will be a number one that seperates himself, and hopefully for the Lions that isn’t Sam Bradford. As much as I hate to admit it, Stafford is probably the pick the Lions will choose. Seeing as though the Lions will likely have a shot at a solid OT with the 20th pick, because it’s a deep position, they probably have to make this move. Stafford teaming up with Britton or Oher makes more sense than Jason Smith and Josh Freeman, in my opinion. I would take Jason Smith here and a stud defensive prospect at #20, but I’m a front line guy - I don’t build teams the Lion way…

2. St. Louis Rams- Jason Smith, OT, Baylor: I thought the Rams would make a pick like this even before they released one of the better offensive tackles of all time, Orlando Pace. With the big OT gone, they’ll take their pick of the deepest position in the draft. Jason Smith looks to have the most upside and the best motor, a fantastic combo for your QB protector to possess, and thus he’ll likely go here.

3. Kansas City Chiefs- Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest: The Chiefs need to get better in more than a few places, and they’ll likely consider taking offensive line help here. But, with a defensive difference maker available for one of the league’s worst defenses, a guy that many consider the best overall talent in the draft, Curry seems to be the best fit at #3.

4. Seattle Seahawks- Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia: Seeing that the defensive tackle spot wasn’t very deep, and probably deciding that they didn’t want to throw their 4th pick at B.J. Raji, the Hawks went ahead and traded one of their playmaking linebackers to pick up a solid young DT that has upside. That leaves the Hawks in a great place to get better where they need help the most. They’ll take either Aaron Curry or Eugene Monroe. I have the Chiefs grabbing Curry at 3, which will get Monroe, the most polished and consistent left tackle in the draft, a plane ticket to Sea-Tac.

5. Cleveland Browns- Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas: First of all, I wouldn’t be surprised if Mangini and the Browns make a move that changes their need and or pick selection heading into the draft. Right now lets assume that all the players on the Browns roster stay in Cleveland. If that’s the case, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brian Orakpo go here. Mangini took a chance on a hybrid backer last year, and Orakpo is a much better player with more “now” skills than Vernon Gholston was, and he has the same sack happy upside as last year’s top pick.

6. Cincinnati Bengals- B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College: Cincinnati needs defensive help. I don’t think they could make a better pick at this point than Raji. B.J. is a beast and has excelled in key off-season areas such as the senior bowl and the combine. Put that performance together with his hard work at Boston College and you have a great prospect at one of the draft’s weakest positions. This might be too smart of a pick for the Bengals.

7. Oakland Raiders- Andre Smith, OT, Alabama: Not even God knows what Al Davis and the Raiders will do now. Some like to think that Michael Crabtree will be the guy, and while he certainly is the most popular and well known prospect here, I’m not so sure he’s even Al’s favorite WR prospect. That might go to lightning quick Maclin or physical freak Darrius Heyward-Bey. That being said, I think the Raiders stun the masses, skip over elite skill players, and grab Andre Smith. The big tackle has seen his stock tumble a bit, but I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if he finds his way into the Top 10. The Raiders don’t seem to care much about character, and personality aside, Smith is one of the most talented big men in this draft.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars- Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech: The Jaguars should count their blessings if Crabtree falls to them. It’s not often that you get an elite offensive NFL talent in a position you desperately need. There are a few people with their heads slammed directly up their hoo-hoo’s that think the Jaguars need to go quarterback here. Because Garrard is 31. Please. This isn’t running back here, and it’s not like Garrard failed last season without any real receiving threats and no offensive line. The Jaguars could take Oher or maybe even an awe inspiring selection of Rey Maualuga, amongst many others, but Crabtree is everything they’ve asked for since Jimmy Smith got caught in the life cycle aging process.

9. Green Bay Packers- Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State: The Packers seem like they’re looking for more of a “now” player than Aaron Maybin might be, but I really like the Penn State product. The Packers might be choosing between him and Everett Brown, and while I like Brown’s athleticism, I happen to think Maybin’s upside is greater. Both are young players that need some time. but Maybin could be special and the Packers should go that direction.

10. San Francisco 49ers- Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern California: If the Raiders go dumb and take the most impressive 40-time or just find better value in another positioin, that might leave Andre Smith here for Iron Mike and the 49ers. If that’s the case, I don’t see them passing up on the big OT even though his “work ethic” might not roll with the former Bears great. However, Mike can motivate a mole to sunbathe, so one of the most talented OTs in the draft at pick 10 would make sense. Since he’s not here in my mock, that leaves two choices I see the 49ers choosing between - Mark Sanchez and Jeremy Maclin. I like Shaun Hill, but he’s not a future pro-bowler by any means. Sanchez has the leadership and work ethic that Mike Singletary and his staff would love. Maclin would give the team a nice gamebreaking option on a team that relies too heavily on Frank Gore. For a team building for the future, Sanchez gets the nod. All in all, there might be a couple teams looking to shoot up to grab Sanchez. If there’s an option out there, the 49ers could pass on the SC product.

11. Buffalo Bills- Everette Brown, DE, Florida State: If there’s any team that needs defensive playmakers as much as the Detroit Lions, it’s the Buffalo Bills. Everett Brown might be a bit of a tweener, but he’s a physical freak of an athlete that does everything he can to put pressure on opposing backfields. Brown could play OLB for the Bills, but could immediately give them pass rush help on passing downs.

12. Denver Broncos- Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU: If there’s a dying breed of player it’s the DE in a 3-4 scheme. With pass rushers getting faster and more athletic, the big space eating ends that do it all have almost disappeared. Jackson is the only real player out there with a first round grade. The Broncos need a lot of help, mostly on the defensive side of the ball, and Jackson looks like a great fit to start his career with first year coach Josh McDaniels in Denver.

13. Washington Redskins- Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi: The Redskins could stun a few folks here by grabbing Jeremy Maclin. Maclin would be a nice number 2 option, the one they were looking for when they spent two first day picks on receivers that disappointed last year. He would allow Randel-El to work in the slot where he’s more effective, and relieve some deep help on Santana Moss. However, I think the Redskins give their young receivers another year to establish themselves and take a chance on an elite offensive tackle prospect in Michael Oher. They need help protecting the quarterback, if you watched them in the 2nd half of 2008, that fact is obvious. Oher might have moments where he shows his youth, but those team with moments of greatness.

14. New Orleans Saints- Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State: If the Saints draft a running back here, you can’t even begin to imagine the failing grade I’ll give them on draft day. They have a great pass catching back in Reggie Bush, one they spend a ton of money on. They also have an even better back in Pierre Thomas, one they don’t seem to like much despite his elite production when given a chance. Beanie Wells is still on the board, but if they know what’s good for them, the Saints will leave him there. Maclin is also available, and you never know what Payton will trick his GM into doing, but Jeremy should stay on the board as well. This team needs to take a chance on defense, and get their offensive help later in the draft. Brain Cushing, Peria Jerry, or Michael Jenkins are three options I like here, with Jenkins being the best for the Saints. He may not have timed out well in the 40, but he has great ability to help a defense that stinks at just about everything.

15. Houston Texans- Brian Cushing, OLB, Southern California: Could the Texans draft Jeremy Maclin? A kid whose gamebreaking ability projected higher than this pick in the draft? The Texans have solid offensive talent, and they probably don’t “need” Maclin, but what a tandem that could be… Still, that’s my fantasy hopes busting into my real football knowledge, and that’s very unlikely to happen. What else is unlikely to happen? The Texans taking a running back this high, so those who expect Beanie or Knowshon to be a Texan, think again. I think the Texans could improve if they got help at defensive end, and maybe outside linebaker (though I do like Xavier Adibi and his future with the club). Brian Cushing could be an immediate impact guy, a linebacker that is effective on all downs - something that shouldn’t be overlooked. I think Cushing is a bit of a reach here, but he fits. A freak like Michael Johnson could really benefit from all the attention Super Mario gets, but he’s even more of a reach because of his inconsistency. I think Cushing fits the bill here.

16. San Diego Chargers- Rey Maualuga, ILB, Southern California: What a difference a year makes. The Chargers came into the ‘08 draft with the “pick the best player, we don’t have any huge needs” thing going for them, and everyone thought they’d be a Super Bowl contender. As it turned out, they struggled like a fish out of water just to make the playoffs, but once they got there it looked like they belonged. But the off season hasn’t done much to secure the make-up of this team. Merriman is expected to be back after missing most of the ‘08 season, and LT fixed his contract which allowed him to stay. Darren Sproles looks to get more touches in 2009, but the Chargers could still use some help making holes for their two headed running back monster. With LT back, I don’t think the Chargers will waste an early pick on a running back, no need to spend another 6 million on the RB position. Vincent Jackson’s immergence, Antonio Gates greatness, and Chris Chambers’ consistency seems to keep any focus off the skill positions in Round 1, even though it’s not all about needs. If Jenkins falls this far, they have to grab the corner/safety. He’s too solid to pass up for a team that ranked 31st in pass defense and I think he could play anywhere for them. They could take a shot on a guy like Vontae Davis but I wouldn’t go there. I think they end up taking Rey Maualuga. The USC product is a tackling machine, and they could really use a sure thing in the middle of their defense.

17. New York Jets- Beanie Wells, RB, Ohio State: Coles absence and Maclin falling right into their laps gives the Jets a great option here. They could go for Freeman if they really think he could be the long term answer, but Maclin is a big time game breaker that can do things most players can’t. He’d help the field position game and allow the Jets to use Cotchery’s skill set more appropriately. At 17th overall, this kid might be a steal for the Jets. However, the I have this feeling that the Jets might grab the first running back in the draft. Thomas Jones is talking hold out, and he wants a raise (and probably deserves one, despite his age), so they could cut him loose and draft a back with all the talent in the world. This would allow them to use Leon Washington more, a guy that has proven his worth when he gets the touches. Thunder and Lightening? Lots of ways the Jets could draft under their new staff - but I’m throwing my wild card out there with the OSU big back.

18. Chicago Bears- Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland: Heyward-Bey is a physical specimen, no doubt about that - but there’s not doubt in my mind that Maclin is the better receiver. However, in Chicago this big bad fast son of a gun might be the perfect fit. He and Devin Hester could prove to be a tough combo to cover. If Mark Sanchez is still here, I think the Bears go with the USC product. As is, they are looking for more explosion and while Bey might not be the immediate answer, his upside and elite numbers likely get him the nod in Chicago.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri: More than a few people have Josh Freeman going here. I don’t think that’s the best move for the Bucs, especially with an elite prospect falling into their laps. Antonio Bryant did big things in Tampa last season, but Maclin would only assure the explosive nature of the offensive weapons being gathered in Tampa. This team has a solid offensive line, so nice running options, and will have a nice plethora of receiver options with Kellen Winslow, Bryant, and Maclin. Probably not a need, but the best prospect on the board is Maclin if the speedster falls this far.

20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas)- Jerry Peria, DT, Mississippi: The Lions traded a promising young defensive tackle to grab perrenial Pro-Bowl OLB Julian Peterson from the Hawks. Getting this quick underrated tackle would be a great bargain because after Peria the talent level at the position really drops off. The Lions need lots of options, no doubt about that, they could go with a project like Robert Ayers, OT Eben Britton, or if they decided to go with Jason Smith in Round 1, Josh Freeman maybe? Like I said, there will be a lot decided by draft day, but as is Peria would be a nice pick for the Lions here, especially with the strengths of the draft the way they are.

21. Philadelphia Eagles- Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia: I see Moreno as a Maurice Jones-Drew type runner, a smaller back that runs with elite physicality and power. A guy that is super quick and not afraid of contact at the same time. Moreno has all the athleticism to be a run and catch player for the Eagles, and while Philly has always looked for a big back to compliment Westy, they may walk right into the Brian Westbrook of the future. They don’t run exactly the same, but I do think Moreno has a high ceiling. Now, it’s unlike the Eagles to grab a running back in the 1st round, they are usually more interested in line moves, but even if the don’t go with Moreno here, I don’t think they’ll go for the line. Robert Ayers is an interesting option, but Brandon Pettigrew is my wild card. The big TE does it all, and with L.J. Smith moving teams (and having been hurt for more than a few games over the last couple years), Brandon could be a nice option for McNabb in the passing game. Still, I like Moreno’s fit in Philly.

22. Minnesota Vikings- Percy Harvin, WR, Florida: What a threat Percy could be as a change of pace guy with Adrian Peterson and a receiver both out of the back field, out wide, and in the slot. Harvin has freakish moves in the open field, and definitely will be a difference maker when healthy in the NFL. Do the Vikings need Harvin? I’m not so sure, but the fact that they went after T.J. Houshmanzadeh makes me think this is a possibility. Harvin and AP would form a disturbing duo for opposing defenses, and that’s something the Vikings could look forward too. And instead of stealing carries from AP, both could spend every down on the field together, with Harvin split out wide.

23. New England Patriots- Clay Matthews, OLB, Southern California: The Patriots need an outside linebacker, definitely, but there’s more than a few and though Matthews has been climbing the board like slick bottle rocket, I’m not sure that he’ll be a lock for New England at 23. It wouldn’t stun me for a second to see the Pats grab a guy like Brandon Pettigrew. He’s a very good blocker with very good hands and a great frame for red-zone activities and physical first downs through the air. He may not fit everything they do offensively, but a football player that does everything well seems like something they dig. As is, I think they go for Clay Mathews here because of his similar skill set. He does things well. He has a chance to start from Day 1 in New England, and this is a team ready to win now.

24. Atlanta Falcons- Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois: Lots of players to choose from for the talented yet youthful Falcons. I think Brandon would be a great fit for a run-first team that keeps their tight end blocking most of the time, but would love to have a useful option to sneak out into passing situations when needed. Pettigrew doesn’t run with the speed of an elite pass catcher, but he’s athletic, has great hands, and is one hell of a blocker. And I don’t think the Falcons would trade the third one for great speed, not the way they run their offense. That being said, Pettigrew is a TE, and I don’t know if the Falcons have enough talent to go tight end in Round 1. He may be more of a sure thing, but the Falcons need defensive help something fierce. They lost two starting linebackers and a starting corner on a defense that wasn’t elite to start with. So lets say they can’t afford to go TE here. Assuming that, Vontae Davis is on the board, and despite his knocks, he’s one of the more physically talented corners in the draft. That’s enough to take him at 24, something the Falcons might very well do.

25. Miami Dolphins- Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee: I think Michael Johnson has all the ability to be one of the best pass rushers in this draft. He just needs to find the motivation to do so. Being a top 10 talent and dropping to 25 might be enough. Spending time on a Bill Parcells run team might be even more help. This kid is a freak, and has the athletic ability to even be considered as an OLB in the 3-4, at least I think so. However, I don’t know if a questionable motor guy is Parcells’ cup of tea, and thus he will probably get passed up again here. They could also go for Vontae Davis, as they certainly could use help in that secondary. However, I think they’ll take Robert Ayers. This kid was solid on a bad defense last season. He practices and plays well, and despite his mediocre times at the combine, has proven to be effective on the football field, using his skills and a solid motor. More Parcells style maybe? I think so.

26. Baltimore Ravens- Eben Britton, OT, Arizona: This kid is solid, and this offensive line needs to get some young help (at least for the future) for franchise quarterback Joe Flacco. Britton has great upside and with a monster frame and great quickness, he might be a steal at 26. I’m not sure that he’ll last this long with the importance of tackles and the way they seem to be screaming off the board over the past few years, but if he does go this far, the Ravens would be smart to grab him. Other options could be Vontae Davis, or maybe they go for an even bigger project with more freak upside like Michael Johnson - and use that strong willed defense to turn him into a rush linebacker sack artist. As is, I like Britton going here.

27. Indianapolis Colts- Evander “ZIGGY” Hood, DT, Missouri: Weird, the Colts are hurting for defensive line help on the interior. Hood is dancing up the draft charts, and for good reason. He’s very athletic and quick for a defensive tackle, and would fit well in the Colts system, if they indeed stay in that system. Some have said they’re looking for more size up front, but Hood is the best available, and the Colts could definitely use him.

28. Philadelphia Eagles (from Carolina)- Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State: Without a tackle to grab here, I wonder if the Eagles will even risk it by taking Moreno with their first of two picks in Round 1. That being said, I’m not going back on my picks because of the way the draft panned out, and the Eagles can go a couple different directions with this pick. They could grab Hakeem Nicks right here. They have a solid young receiver in DeSean Jackson, but Nicks would look nice on the opposite side. Still, they need help on the offensive line, even though they got better by signing Shawn Andrews’ big brother, Stacy, from the Bengals, they could still use a guy like Max Unger for the future. But I’m going with Pettigrew here because the kid is a stud, they just lost an injury plagued L.J. Smith to Baltimore, and Pettigrew not only helps out with the passing game but in the run game as well. He’s more than the 28th best player in this draft. I expect him to help from Day 1.

29. New York Giants- James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State: I really like Hakeem Nicks, and while I don’t think the Giants need to run and pick up the best receiver available because of Plax’s situation, I think Nicks is a nice receiver. Receiver galore in Round 1 though? I’m not so sure. Plus, as much as I like Nicks, the guy put on 15 pounds between the combine and pro day workouts, and is up over 225. Don’t be a pig for 30 days, help your draft stock, I mean come on man…. I think they could find a lot to like at the position in Round 2, and should instead build up their line in the draft with a guy like Max Unger or Alex Mack or maybe linebacker. And trading down is always an option, especially if they like a couple receivers here and don’t see need to pick another one in Round 1. All that being thrown about, I think the Giants see something they like in James Laurinaitis and go get him. He’s not great at shedding blocks, but D-line has been a power for the Giants, and James should do good things behind that group.

30. Tennessee Titans- Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech: Could they go receiver here? Yes, they could try once again to snag a competent starting receiver, but it’s a strong position with many players to be had - why would they pass on a chance at the second coming of Javon Kearse (during his freak days of course)? Michael Johnson has that freakish athleticism and size and the Titans can grab the kid and have him learn from some team greats. He won’t be needed on every down right away, and he has upside to burn. I think they skip taking the 5th 1st round receiver and go for upside on the D-line. I like to wait on receivers, so I’m expecting the Titans to pick without fantasy hopes on the line here. Hakeem Nicks might be the guy, but in a weighted coin flip I’m going with Johnson.

31. Arizona Cardinals- Alex Mack, C, California: LeSean McCoy is my favorite here because I love the running back’s vision and acceleration. However, I think adding a great young center, a guy that can play a couple positions and is basically a sure fire solid starter, seems like the right move. They have a young back they like in Tim Hightower, so getting him help up front might be a better move that tossing a first round pick at another back. Later in the draft is the time to add depth, not Round 1. Another option would be Hakeem Nicks if Boldin is traded. I think ‘Quan will sign a deal with the Cards, however, so that’s “a moo point, like a cow’s opinion, nobody cares”. So I’m skipping over my favorite back in the class for one of my favorite O-line leaders.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers- Max Unger, C/G, Oregon: The Steelers will have options. But if the draft unfolds like this, I don’t think they spend another high pick on a receiver, they let Hakeem Nicks fall dreamily into the lap of another suiter in Round 2. They take Max Unger because the Steelers could use O-line depth, and they are a smart franchise. Unger is a beast, he can play multiple positions, and he’s always been the leading force of great Oregon rushing attacks. Last pick in Round 1 should be a great one for the Steel-City.

Best Available After Round 1:

1. Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina

2. LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh

3. Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest

4. Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut

5. Ron Brace, DT, Boston College

6. Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers

7. Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State

8. Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma

9. Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan

10. Conner Barwin, DE, Cincinnati

11. Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut

12. Clint Sintim, OLB, Virginia

13. Larry English, OLB, Northern Illinois

14. Derrick Williams, WR, Penn State

15. Jamon Meredith, OT, South Carolina

16. Cornelius Ingram, TE, Florida

17. Shawn Nelson, TE, Southern Miss

18. Shonn Greene, RB, Iowa

19. Rashad Johnson, S, Alabama

20. Sean Smith, CB, Utah

21. Andy Levitre, OG, Oregon State

22. Chase Coffman, TE, Missouri

23. Gerald Cadogan, OT, Penn State

24. Patrick Chung, SS, Oregon

25. Mike Thomas, WR, Arizona

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Filed Under: Mock Drafts
Tagged: 2009 NFL Draft Class, 2009 NFL Mock Draft, Clay Matthews, Detroit Lions, Mathew Stafford, Michael Crabtree, Mock Draft, NFL Draft, Percy Harvin

The Value of Opportunity

March 10, 2009 by Josh Arsenault · Leave a Comment

Football, perhaps more than any other sport, is all about opportunity. At the highest level the separation between stars and scrubs is often not a measure of talent but rather the chance players are given to put that talent on display. For every Peyton Manning that was drafted into stardom there is a Tom Brady that toiled in obscurity until they got their shot (thank you, Drew Bledsoe). As an avid fantasy footballer, part of what I try to do in building winning teams is to assess players not only on what they have done (given their opportunity), but what they could do if given the chance. Historically sleepers are identified from one season to the next by determining which players’ values will take a spike due to either an increased role, a change of scenery, or an improved surrounding cast. This logic seems sound in a lot of ways but it also leaves a lot to chance. If I’m taking a shot on a guy in the mid-to-late rounds of my draft, I want to know that given the opportunity he will put points on the board. Perhaps the best predictor of what a player is capable of with the ball in their hands is FPT or Fantasy Points per Touch. Depending on the scoring of your league, you should have an idea which guys do the most with what they are given and then look for individuals in that group who may take advantage of an improved situation in the upcoming season. The following lists of FPT all-stars compared to their top-tier peers are based on a standard PPR league for the 2009 season. Call them sleepers if you want, but these are the guys you can trust to make the most of their opportunities when given the chance.

Quarterbacks

Top-Tier Peers:

Philip Rivers - .66 FPT
Drew Brees - .55 FPT
Peyton Manning - .52 FPT
Kurt Warner - .51 FPT
Jay Cutler - .46 FPT

Opportunity Darlings:

Shaun Hill - .50 FPT - I know he’s not sexy, but Shaun Hill wins football games and I have to think that when the chips are down Mike Singletary would rather have him behind center than an aging vet or an unproven rookie if the Niners go that route in April. Young wideout Josh Morgan keeps getting better and I wouldn’t be surprised to see San Francisco go WR early when the draft rolls around or make a play on Torry Holt or Anquan Boldin if and when they come available. If he wins the gig (and I think he will) and plays a full season, you’ll look like a genius for nabbing Hill with one of the last picks in the draft while others reached for a big name QB early.

Trent Edwards - .40 FPT - The career path of quarterbacks that have played with TO can’t be ignored. Yes, he’s a pain in the ass … yes, he does topless crunches in his driveway while fielding questions from reporters … yes, he has the emotional maturity of a jock strap … but … Jeff Garcia went to three Pro Bowls throwing him the rock, Donovan McNabb had the best season of his career when TO was flying like an Eagle, and Tony Romo bacame a household name (and landed some hotties) during Owens’ time in big D. Edwards is already a very accurate passer and has displayed good intangibles with only a couple seasons under his belt. I anticipate a BIG step forward for the Stanford alum in the upcoming season.

Tarvaris Jackson - .56 FPT - The only thing standing between T-Jack and fantasy production is one Bradford Childress. There aren’t many men I detest more than the software engineer currently running the show in Minnesota. When given the opportunity Jackson has made strides toward becoming a viable NFL starting quarterback (see his 95.4 QB rating and 9-2 TD-INT ratio in limited action last season). For reasons beyond my comprehension the Viking’s brass wants to hand the reigns to the walking turnover that is Sage Rosenfels. When that fails miserably and the Vikes stumble out of the gates, make sure Jackson isn’t floating out on your league’s free agent list and he will reward you with above average production.

Running Backs

Top-Tier Peers:

Maurice Jones-Drew - 1.02 FPT
Brian Westbrook - .92 FPT
LaDainian Tomlinson - .77 FPT
Michael Turner - .71 FPT
Adrian Peterson - .66 FPT

Opportunity Darlings:

Pierre Thomas - 1.12 FPT - When Thomas took over the reigns for the injured (again) Reggie Bush and aging Deuce McAllister, the Saints offense didn’t miss a beat. In fact, the guy that played in front of Rashard Mendenhall at Illinois took full advantage of his opportunity down the stretch last season and carried many fantasy owners to their respective championships. Thomas proved to be a dynamic all-around threat as he displayed a nose for the goaline as well as above-average receiving skills out of the backfield. Rumors have been swirling as they always do this time of year, but barring a reunion between Drew Brees and LT in the Big Easy, Thomas looks to be the guy to own in the Saint’s backfield heading forward.

Felix Jones - 1.41 FPT - How did Arkansas not win a national championship with Jones and Darren McFadden in their backfield? I’m pretty sure I could have coached that team to 11 wins using a Tecmo Bowl playbook. This silky smooth sophomore was putting up HUGE numbers with his limited chances early in the season before suffering a hamstring injury that translated into what was essentially a lost season. Never fear, reports out of Dallas are that Jerry Jones wants to hand a bigger portion of the workload to Jones to help keep sledgehammer Marion Barber fresh. The loss of the Tuman Oeadache also means the Cowboys will rely more on the ground game this season. Don’t expect Jones to keep averaging nearly a point and a half per touch, but 950 yards and 8 touchdowns with contributions in the passing game and special teams is well within his reach.

Ahmad Bradshaw - .67 FPT - This one may be a stretch for some of you, but when I look around the league at muddy backfield situations in Denver, New England and Baltimore, you could do a lot worse than nabbing this diminutive fireball in the mid-to-late rounds of your league’s draft. Bradshaw will be 23 at the start of the season, and he has averaged 6.1 YPC for his career in a limited role with the G-Men. Derrick Ward’s breakout season stunted his growth last year, but word out of Giants camp is that the coaching staff is excited to see what Bradshaw can do with an increased role this year. Translation: this guy could reward savvy owners with 800-900 yards and handful of touchdowns. Brandon Jacobs is a bruiser but he doesn’t catch passes and he doesn’t stay healthy for full seasons … look for Bradshaw to open some eyes this year.

Wide Receivers

Top-Tier Peers:

Calvin Johnson - 3.38 FPT
Greg Jennings - 3.23 FPT
Larry Fitzgerald - 3.19 FPT
Roddy White - 2.89 FPT
Andre Johnson - 2.71 FPT

Opportunity Darlings:

Vincent Jackson - 3.30 FPT - Jackson’s size and speed combo served as a frustration to his owners in his first three seasons in the NFL. Surely a guy with his physical gifts would dominate the league … it was just a matter of time. Well, fantasy owners are not known for their patience but dynasty leaguers that held on to Jackson during his steady upward trends early in his career reaped the rewards of a very quietly productive season in 2008. A physical freak at 6′5″ 230 lbs with a lightning quick explosion off the line and tremendous leaping ability, Jackson is a nightmare matchup for opposing defenses. Another year in the saddle for Philip Rivers and the emergence of Jackson as a legitimate red zone threat could result in a top-5 WR next season for those that call his number on draft day.

Steve Breaston - 2.40 FPT - This is me saying I don’t think Boldin is coming back to the Cards. Nobody (including the Cardinal’s front office as evidenced by the selection of Early Doucet last April) saw this second year man from Michigan ascending to the ranks of fantasy relevance before last season. When Boldin exits stage east (hello Philly?), Breaston will step into his vacated spot opposite Larry Fitzgerald. With the attention the braided one will command on the other side, Kurt Warner and Breaston will be free to carve up opposing defenses between the 20s. Double-digit touchdowns may be a bit optimistic with the variety of weapons at Warner’s disposal, but 90 catches and 1,200 yards is well within reach for this dynamic speedster. Invest.

Lee Evans - 2.80 FPT - Uncertainty at the quarterback position and a lack of talent around him have hurt Evans’ production throughout his NFL career. Despite these limiting factors, the supremely talented former Badger has never missed a game and has never averaged less than 15 yards per catch in any of his five seasons. Enter TO … with the flamboyant prima donna drawing the attention of defenses and media outlets alike, Evans will be freed up to work over the top without facing the double and triple teams that have held his stats in check thus far. Another point to consider … Lee’s numbers have never been about quantity but QUALITY of his catches (averaging less than 60 catches per season) … TO commanding 80-90 balls will not cut into his value as some have speculated. I anticipate a HUGE season for Evans in the 75-80 catch neighborhood with 1,400 yards and double digit touchdowns for the first time in his career.

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Filed Under: Fantasy Football
Tagged: Fantasy Football, Larry Fitzgerald, Lee Evans, Maurice Jones Drew, Sleepers

2009 NFL Mock Draft: #1

January 20, 2009 by luckylester · Leave a Comment

Updated on January 19, 2009

I’m dancing in the streets a little - it’s always nice to see something you never thought would happen, and until Ken Whisenhunt was tricked into coaching the Cardinals, I didn’t think I’d ever see that red jersey and helmet sporting that angry woodpecker in a Super Bowl game. But here we are, a Pittsburgh Steelers team that has won as many championships as any team ever, and an Arizona Cardinals team that looks for a ring for the first time. Awesome. But that pretty much locks up my first full mock draft. I’ll compile the draft as if the Cardinals pull off the huge upset, because, well, they’ve done it 3 times already and I’d be stunned if they did it again - so it will probably happen. The new mock draft is also coming out because the early entry list is locked in and the draft order is basically set. I’m done with my “If I’m making the picks” format because I can really do both predictions and analysis by suggesting what I think the Draft will look like- still, I agree with my ability to judge talent, and a couple teams definitely should call me up for some advice… Haha… Here goes the goods…

1. Detroit Lions: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama - This pick is exactly what the Lions need, and that’s how I’m doing my first mock draft. This is a team that has gone kookoo over the skill positions and they have been brutal on offensive and defensive lines. I’m sold on the thought that Detroit will get a good football guy to make their personnel decisions and that will lead them away from 1st Round receivers, quarterbacks, or running backs. Andre Smith might not be the guy making the best decisions (getting hooked up with an agent a couple days before his team’s big bowl game) but he is a beast of a man that dominated at the college level. If the Lions want to properly use Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith, arguably their best players, they’ll have to get some time to throw and room to run. Matthew Stafford (the consensus pick here) has all the tools, but without a better offensive line the Lions will continue to get destroyed. Do the right thing Detroit, go big here, Smith is your guy.

2. St. Louis Rams - Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia - The Rams have lots of problems, no doubt in my mind, they would happily take Smith if he were available here - but he’s not, and nobody wants to trade into the 2nd pick so it’s not like they’ll find a valuable trading partner for the pick. That being said, Matt Stafford is the guy with all the tools that Marc Bulger doesn’t have, end the Marc Bulger experiment…. please. I personally like Mark Sanchez a little more than Stafford - but the tools Stafford has can’t be taught, and while the Rams need more than a QB in the waiting, the #2 pick is a place where immense talent needs to be selected.

3. Kansas City Chiefs: Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forrest - I don’t think the Chiefs go quarterback here - it’s stupid, A, and B- Tyler Thigpen played great when he got a chance to do so. Just ride out this guy for a while and hope that you hit the lotto with the kid, weirder things have happened. Plus, with a 30th ranked rushing defense and a 28th ranked passing defense, they might consider getting some dynamic help on that side of the ball first. Still, with Bradford and Stafford on the board it’s tough for me to pass up a chance at a franchise QB, but I’m going to, because I’m smart. Thigpen is good enough right now, he’s got a little something that I like as the guy in charge of my roster, so I’m taking Aaron Curry to be a playmaker on my defense. This guy is one of the surest things in the draft, a football player through and through, and he bleeds intensity. The Chiefs have some speed in their linebacking corps, but they don’t have a guy like this and he’ll immediately come in and make everyone better. This may be a little high for a linebacker, and probably higher than Curry will go, but I’ll take him because I’m looking for the guy that will improve the Chiefs the most, and they need a guy like Aaron.

4. Seattle Seahawks: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech - The Hawks need offensive line help badly. I know Michael Crabtree is out there and every single Hawk fan in the world wants Seattle to go get the big stud receiver from Texas Tech - I love Crabtree, think he’ll be a great one, but you can only win if you have a good offensive line. Monroe is the smart pick - or maybe Jason Smith, and both should be here for the Seahawks taking - but in the end I just can’t pass up on the chance to get an elite playmaker for the Hawks offense. People (like me) will say that Seattle never makes a pick like this, that they have a smart brass that knows how to pick right, that they wouldn’t go skill position at the top of the draft - but, in the end, history is just that - history. Right now is the now, and with that in mind, and the future in the eyes of the same guy that’s watching Crabtree work out, watching him torch defenses at will - watching him become a version of TO without the assish tendencies, I don’t think the Hawks can pass that up - not with the guys they have. Taking skill position guys at the top of the draft can be a recipe for losses to build. You spend too much money on a receiver and it will hurt you in the end if that player doesn’t become great. But I think the Hawks need to go for it.

5. Cleveland Browns: Malcom Jenkins, CB, Ohio State - The Browns secondary and overall defense was brutal last season. Weird, they went and spent a bunch of money on high-priced free agents and they still got kicked around pretty good. A lot of that has to do with their offense going 3 and out a lot, and putting the defense in bad situations, but still - tackling and angles were tough to come by in Cleveland and I think Jenkins comes in and starts immediately for the Browns. He’s as sure as a corner back can be in helping the run. He’s got great understanding and recognition, things that plague the Browns secondary.

6. Cincinnati Bengals: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State - The Bengals need a lot of help in a lot of places, weird. But with Stacey Andrews struggling a bit and his knee giving him problem, and a visit with the doctor for re-constructive surgery in mid-January, it might be time to get a young stud to protect their biggest investment, Carson Palmer. Everyone watched what happened to the Bengals without Palmer - protecting him next season might be a good start. Eugene Monroe has proven he can start anywhere. He’s an athletic kid that held down left tackle for Virginia, and he could do the same in Cincinnati. Either way, I think Monroe would be a good pick this high, a need pick and a talent pick and a good use of their money - But lets just say (for the sake of good health and positive thinking) that the Bengals elect to re-sign Andrews (and they very well could because of his youth and possible good news on the diagnosis of his knee surgery) then they might elect to go for a pass rushing specialist like Everett Brown, Brian Orakpo, or Aaron Maybin - going for the health of the young right tackle, Aaron Maybin goes off the board here because his motor and upside are impressive.

7. Oakland Raiders: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri - Rey Maualuga is a machine. The Raiders need a guy like him just about as bad as anything - well, aside from a new coaching staff and a new owner and a guy to bring in talent on draft day that doesn’t base everything on some lifting and speed numbers - so they need a lot of things, but a sure tackler at linebacker, and big time playmaker, a special and California taught local kid like Maualuga - I think they’d have something going if they went here. However, I know the Raiders - and Jeremy Maclin or Crabtree (if he lasts) might get pushed to Oakland. I have this eery feeling that if Maclin is on the board for Oakland that he’ll be wearing black and silver come next season. It’s sad for Jeremy - but it’s probably true.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia - While Michael Oher is a stud, he has shown a lack of focus at times. He’s been beat by lesser defensive ends, and while the talent is obviously there, Oher’s lack of consistency might hurt him in the draft. I have that happening here as Eugene Monroe will get ahead of Oher on draft boards and be the first off the board after Andre Smith. If Maclin is on the board here, the Jaguars might be tempted - they have shown a history of going and reaching for their biggest needs, and they definitely need a playmaker outside. But the Jaguars showed some offensive line (and defensive line for that matter) woes in 2008. Maurice Jones Drew is still phenomenal and David Garrard didn’t have as bad of a season as his numbers insisted, but this team needs some help on their respective lines. Monroe has the ability to get plugged in anywhere he’s needed, and he’ll immediately improve that position. That’s rare in the NFL these days, and even tougher to get in the draft. For a team that needs to reestablish their rushing identity, the Jags could make a great pick right here. Many people expect the Jaguars to go linebacker here, but there’s room to rummage through the next couple rounds to find a playmaker there. The top O-Tackles, while the position is deep, will be gone long before the Jags pick again.

9. Green Bay Packers: Everett Brown, DE, Florida State - The Packers need to revamp their defensive front. I think Aaron Kampman is a stud, but he needs some help and I think Everett Brown can be a special contributor up front for the Packers. They need help getting to the quarterback and stopping the run. Basically they were a liability on defense. They have plenty of weapons on offense, and while every team could always use help on the line, this pick seems like a no brainer for the Pack - but it could be one of the many defensive end prospects in the draft. I also think that this spot, and this mock, would have the Packers being in a great position with someone who wanted to trade down to get Mark Sanchez - ie the Minnesota Vikings. No trades in my mock though, too tough to figure, so I’ll go with one of the more talent kids out there.

10. San Francisco 49ers: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC - I like Shaun Hill, like I said in my first mock, but Sanchez is a stud - he has a lightning quick release, great leadership qualities, and a passion for the game that fits perfectly with Mike Singletary’s system. Could the 49ers go in about a million different directions? You bet… Could one of those directions be not re-signing Takeo Spikes and maybe going with Rey Maualuga to form one of the best middle linebacker duos in all of football? Possibly, Rey seems like a Mike kind of guy, but he also seems a lot like Patrick Willis (but could it be bad to have two of him?). Shaun Hill is a solid guy right now, he does enough to keep San Francisco in the game, but Sanchez has tools to be a top pick, and very well could be, but right now I like him going to SF at 10 because that’s a great place to get your future signal caller and not have to play him right off the bat. If Sanchez isn’t their guy, and they love Orakpo, Michael Johnson of Georgia Tech, Maybin or Brown if they are there, don’t be surprised if the Niners snag a pass rusher.

11. Buffalo Bills: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas - The Bills need more help on the defensive line. They started off the year okay, but they don’t make enough plays and they don’t have any one player that poses an elite pass rushing skill set. Okay, Aaron Schobel is a guy that has some good career numbers, but he spent much of 2008 hurt and is on the wrong side of 30 and the small side of 250lbs. I really like Micheal Johnson of Georgia Tech, but Orakpo is probably the more complete of the two, and the Bills could use that.

12. Denver Broncos: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College - The Broncos have been brutal at stopping the run for sometime, and it’s very likely that Mike Shannahan’s insistence on grabbing opposing teams leftovers instead of drafting some help up front is what got him fired in the first place. I expect new HC Josh McDaniels to do his damnedest to strengthen the defensive front, and starting with a massive defensive lineman that will free up linebackers while putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks is probably a good start. McDaniels is and offensive mind, no doubt about that, but he’s also a smart guy and while assessing team needs he’ll vouch for the teams offensive firepower and express some worry about that line… Raji’s 6.5 sacks and numerous runs stuffed will certainly help Denver’s front - character issues might hurt Raji’s stock, but in Denver’s move to the 3-4 they’ll need a player of Raji’s strength to hold down the middle.

13. Washington Redskins: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor - The Redskins will be lucky if they get an offensive line prospect like Jason Smith. The kid knows how to play the game and he really does it right. I think he’s a better pass blocker than Andre Smith, and his athleticism is second to none. At 6′5 305lbs, he’s got room to grow into his body a little bit. He’s not super strong, but that will come - his feet are great and his energy and ability to stay on blocks long are two things that he has over any other elite tackle prospect in the draft. A steal at 13.

14. New Orleans Saints: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois - Defense, defense, defense. As much as Jeremy Maclin’s speed has to excite this offensive minded freak of a coach in New Orleans, it’s not offensive deficiencies that keep the Saints from getting into the playoffs. Defensively they are brutal, they don’t have much of an identity except that of a team that allows opposing offenses to do anything they damn well please. That’s not a good thing. Right now, the Saints don’t have corners that get the job done. They don’t tackle all that well, and find themselves in positions to make tackles far too often. As far as talent and confidence go, Davis is a corner that comes second to none. He’s a physical kid that likes to get into opposing receivers. He hasn’t had a ton of interceptions at the college level, but I’m going to go ahead and say that’s because opposing offenses don’t throw his way. He may have been too aggressive in college, being allowed to do too much on the field. He’ll get the little things down, but I like what he does have and think he would start immediately for New Orleans.

15. Houston Texans: Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech - How can you play an entire season on the other side of Mario Williams and have absolutely zero sacks to show for it? Weaver is a better run defensive end than a pass rusher, but 0 sacks? Yikes. Johnson might be a little bit of a reach here - but the kid is a freakish pass rusher that could start out helping right away as a pass rush specialist and he has the body to add weight and become a full time guy over time. The Texans could really use a pass rush option opposite their big dog. With much attention played to their former 1st overall pick, Johnson could find a lot of room to be the playmaker that he is. This would do wonders for the other half of Houston’s defensive line.

16. San Diego Chargers: Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State - If the Chargers are indeed getting rid of LaDainian Tomlinson, for age and contract reasons, I think Wells would be a perfect fit to get half of the carries in a time share with Darren Sproles. I, personally, would just keep Tomlinson for another year, go for some offensive line or defensive help here, and grab a running back in next season’s draft or in the later rounds, but I’m taking the plunge here because of Wells ability. Basically, I don’t like taking skill guys early, but Wells has special size, explosion, and speed - and while Sproles has shown a knack for the big play, there is no way he holds up through a season getting 15-20 carries per game. I make exceptions for special players, and while Wells’ injury problems might scare some teams off, I happen to believe that you go for the talent and if freak injuries happen you just got unlucky. If LT is re-signed, I think the Chargers should make a play on

17. New York Jets: Rey Maualuga, LB, USC- To get a guy that can make a difference like Maualuga is always a draft day blessing. To get him in the middle of the 1st round is even more impressive. Can he be Rex Ryan’s New York Jet version of Ray Lewis? It’s possible. I’m not sure anyone this side of William Wallace has ever had as much passion, toughness, and straight super-hero ability like Ray Lewis, but if there’s a guy in this draft that looks anything like Ray, it’s Rey - and not just for names sake. The Jets need to get better defensively - but they could also make a play on a young running back if their top choice sits here. I think Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are good for now, and I think Ryan will be ready to get a defensive stopper right off the bat.

18. Chicago Bears: Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi - Nate Davis? Oh, I think this kid could surprise. But I’m not ready to make that jump quite yet - plus, the Bears “are happy with their quarterback situation” - right. The Bears look to be aging a little bit, and that means they could use all types of players. But if the super-talented Oher is still on the board at 18, the Bears snag him up without thinking twice.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sen’Derrick Marks, DT, Auburn - Marks is a freak. He’s a superior athlete in the body of a defensive tackle. He’s not enormous, but his tenacity and elite quickness and coordination make him a great prospect and could very well allow him to be great at rushing the passer and making plays against the run. If the Bucs have shown me anything during their late slide that saw them go from 9-3 to 9-7 and missing the playoffs, it’s that they need help on the defensive line. Marks might be the best of the bunch and at 19th overall, he’s worth that risk.

20. Detroit Lions (via Dallas Cowboys): James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State - The Lions need guys like this to do things like win a football game. James is a sure thing. You know what you’re getting, a great tackler, great team guy with the ability to stop the run, read blocks, get his teammates behind him and make everyone better. A great offensive lineman and a great linebacker to be a team leader on defense, that would be a great draft for a team that doesn’t know much about great drafts. The Lions need to stop taking chances and picking skill position players - teams are built on guys that can block up front and get off blocks and tackle on defense - Andre and James are a good start.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia - Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia - Brian Westbrook #2? After seeing what Brian Westbrook has become since the Eagles drafted the undersized back in the 3rd round years ago, I wouldn’t be stunned if they tried to get him. I know they aren’t a team that usually guns for the skill positions early, but Moreno is special and despite being a little undersized, could be a great option in making the transition to the days without Mr. Westbrook. The Eagles have seen Westy have injury troubles, day to day issues just about every other week, and his age is becoming a little bit of an issue. The Eagles have a bevy of vets, and they surely need to get younger on the offensive line and all over on defense, but this kid is an elite playmaker that you aren’t able to snag in Round 2.

22. Minnesota Vikings: Sean Smith, CB, Utah - Sean Smith played a little under the radar at Utah, but he was a great part of one of the best defenses in college football. He helped shut down the Alabama passing attack, and played good football against the run as well. Smith is an elite player from a small school. The Vikings would help improve their semi-shaky pass defense by adding the Utes ball hawk. Smith has unreal size for a corner, and has shown a knack for making big plays by either intercepting 5 passes or leading his team in passes broken up. Smith could shoot up draft boards after the combine.

23. New England Patriots: Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest - The Patriots find themselves in an interesting place here, and free agency will definitely help decide where they go here. I know Smith is a great playmaker with lots of upside and the personality it takes to be good at the next level. I’m not sure if he fits perfectly into the Patriots system, but he definitely fits a need as almost every corner in New England will see free agency over the off-season. Smith does lots of good things, he’s got solid speed and breaks well on the ball.

24. Atlanta Falcons: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State - The Falcons might not need Brandon Pettigrew to make life easier on Matt Ryan, but they could sure use him. He’s a good blocker and an even better pass catcher, but the bottom line is he does it all. He may not be a big play guy like Kellen Winslow or Jason Witten, but he’s a great blocker, probably the best blocking tight end in the class. He also has great hands and very good ball skills. He does it all. This guy is just the type of guy Atlanta (or any team in the league) needs.

25. Miami Dolphins: D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt - The Dolphins need help in the secondary, and maybe all over their defense to be honest. They played better than they were early in the year in ‘08, but fell apart a little toward the end and, in my opinion, better exemplified exactly what their biggest problems are. In an offensive heavy draft class, the Dolphins need to build defensively. Moore is a very talented player that shut down #1 receivers all season for Vanderbilt. He’s an opportunistic player with a playmaking ability that could help the Dolphins create turnovers defensively.

26. Baltimore Ravens: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland - While many people would like to point to Bey as being inconsistent and an underachiever in college, I would like to point to the poor quarterbacking in Maryland this last season. Bey is super talented and could definitely turn into a great pro. I like him more than most. I think he’d fit in in Baltimore, and be a big target that the Ravens need to pit with Mark Clayton and the aging Derrick Mason.

27. Philadelphia Eagles (via Carolina): Ebbin Britton, OT, Arizona - The Eagles need to get younger at lots of different places. Arizona’s offense was underrated this season, being stuck in the Pac-10, where even I admit was underrated. Britton has been road-grading paths for running backs over the last two seasons, and the Wildcats have been better than you’d think in that area. Britton is a big boy with some good quickness and a very football savvy demeanor. I think the Eagels would be bright to grab him before they really need an offensive tackle. Prep him for next season when age finally catches up with the green machine.

28. Indianapolis Colts: Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi - The Colts really struggled to stop the run, with or without Bob Sanders, and if you can’t stop the run with that heat seeking missile aimed right at the hearts of running backs, then you have to do something a little different. Peria Jerry is a very good defensive tackle that plays with the intensity and knowhow needed to excel in the Colts system. They need to start filling holes if they want to return to the Super Bowl.

29. New York Giants: Percy Harvin, WR/RB, Florida - The Giants need more playmakers. Percy Harvin might be the shiniest playmaker in this draft of offensive firepower. Getting him at 29 would be great. The Giants need them some Percy Harvin just like Flordia does.

30. Tennessee Titans: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina - He doesn’t have as much upside as Darrius Heyward-Bey, but Nicks might be the better receiver in the NFL. Nicks runs solid routes, his hands or enforced with a special unique stick-em produced only by his body. That catch that everyone saw during the bowl season, that was amazing, but no way was that his only amazing catch. This kid is always open, and I think his game translates well to the next level. He would also make the 5th receiver selected in the first round, which seems like an unreal ammount - but with the lack of underclassmen coming out, and the overall mediocre feeling of this talent pool, matched with the heavy set of receivers and apt running backs, this could be a weird first round with receivers off early.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU - Beast. He may not be the “new” defensive end with the pass rushing forte and the speed and the basketball body, but Tyson is a run-stuffing fiend. A kid that is nearly 6′5″ and 300+ - he’s a beast. The Steelers could use a guy like that inside in their 3-4. They have pass rushers galore, and Tyson has above average talent for his size - that’s digable planet business right there.

32. Arizona Cardinals: Brian Cushing, LB, USC - This kid didn’t have great numbers on an impressive USC defense, but he is damn good at just about everything. He can turn in run in coverage, as he was often asked to do, and he can make big plays all over the field. He’s had some durability issues, but the Cardinals would make a good move grabbing a kid with Cushing’s upside - winning the Super Bowl gives you a chance to go with upside like Brian’s.

You can also find updates on the following Mock Draft Databases:
ffToolBox.com
Sports Jabber Mock Draft Database
TheFootballExpert.com
Football Jabber Mock Draft Database

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Filed Under: Mock Drafts
Tagged: 1st Round Mock Draft, Andre Smith, Beanie Wells, First Mock Draft, Knowshon Moreno, Matt Stafford, Michael Crabtree, Mock Draft 09, Mock Draft 2009, NFL Draft 2009, NFL Football, NFL mock Draft, NFL Mock Draft 2009

Sam Bradford’s PERFECT Choice

January 15, 2009 by luckylester · Leave a Comment

Sam Bradford just made the best decision of his career - unless of course lightening strikes (or some enormous defensive tackle, either or) and his knee takes a Carson Palmer blast - but lets ignore lightening and freak accidents and lets just look at this strictly from a football point of view.

If he had entered the draft the best case scenario for the ultra talented signal caller from Oklahoma would be that he wowed the scouts in tryouts (like I assume he would), jumped to the top of the quarterback rankings even though his arm strength is somewhere behind Matt Stafford (which I think he would do), and gets touted as the next star quarterback. That’s a best case scenario. Sure, the money is there, and sure, the Lions could go in another direction - but if all of those other ifs happened, the Lions would be stupid not to go for the gusto and add Bradford. A college kids dream; the returning Hesiman quarterback of one of the Nation’s best teams, with all his offensive weapons returning, with all the girls with cute accents falling all over him like he’s freaking Brad Pitt… Or the freaking Lions… The first 0-16 team ever. The team with more holes than a damned whiffle ball. The team that’s been run into the ground by donkeys and clowns alike.

Did Sam make the right choice? You bet. It’s not all about money - sometimes it’s about staying the hell away from Detroit. Sometimes it’s about happiness, having a good time, and spending another year with some of your best friends living it up and making another run at a National Championship. Some might say he’s stupid for “passing up millions of dollars” - and I’m not saying I’d be cool enough to make that decision - I’m just saying he made the right decision - a decision with his heart. If the majority of people could only be so right.

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Filed Under: Fantasy Football
Tagged: Heisman Trophy, NFL Draft, NFL Football, Oklahoma Sooners, Sam Bradford

Coaching Changes….

January 13, 2009 by luckylester · 1 Comment

There have been some coaching changes in the NFL - and even though the Super Bowl isn’t set, coaching positions will continue to fill in as time passes. So far, there have been a few changes that will surely effect the direction in which these new offenses will move. So far, these are the changes….

Jim Mora taking over for Mike Holmgren in Seattle while Greg Knapp takes over the offense…

Josh McDaniels taking over in Denver…

Jim Caldwell taking over for Tony Dungy in Indianapolis…

Eric Mangini taking over in Cleveland…

Mike Martz out as offensive coordinator in San Francisco as Mike Singletary takes the HC job full time….

Now everything doesn’t depend on coaching, and nothing is for sure, but right off the bat their has to be some things that look good and others that look bad, based not only on a long history but a new start or some old habits that I think will follow each coach to his new position.

Since Jim Mora and Jim Caldwell, since both have been groomed for their new positions, basically waiting in the shadows for their former coaches to call it quits so they could take over. Both coaches inherit teams that have done a lot of winning under their former coaches (Holmgren and Dungy respectively) but Mora’s situation is a little different than Caldwell’s because of each teams success, or in the Seahawks case; lack of success, over the past season.

Jim will start off his tenure in Seattle after the Hawks come off one of their worst seasons in recent memory. The Hawks went through a rash of injuries and close losses to finish as the 4th worst team in the NFL this year. That means they get the 4th pick in the NFL Draft this April. But that’s a long way away, and I just want to talk briefly about Jim Mora’s history and his success in the run-game, and if that will follow him to Seattle. I expect Mora to take more chances than Holmgren did, and I expect the running game to be better than it was last year, but Matt Hasselbeck isn’t quite the type of quarterback that Michael Vick was, and honestly, neither is Senecca Wallace. It will be interesting to see what happens with Matt and his back problems, but I would imagine that the Hawks don’t turn into one of the league’s best rushing teams right off the bat. Michael Vick had to be accounted for at all times, and that opened up a lot of holes for TJ Duckett, and more impressively, Warrick Dunn. But, there weren’t a lot of defenses worried about Vick’s throwing prowess, so things could open up in the run game because of that in Seattle as well. All things being said, I think the 3rd down and 9 draw plays are likely out of the play book - the stop routes might not find a place in Jim’s heart, and history would tell you that Seattle receivers won’t be great options at your next fantasy draft either. All things being said, this personnel is much different than it was in Atlanta, so Mora’s plan of attack may be different as well.

Jim Caldwell’s team is good. They have an on-the-field coach in Peyton Manning and some great pieces. I imagine Marvin Harrison will be gone (mainly because of contract issues), but that just opens things up for Anthony Gonzalez. Gonzo likely moves to Marvin’s spot, and unless the Colts do something to add another receiver, it will open up a lot of things for Dominic Rhodes out of the backfield and Dallas Clark as well. Without a 3rd solid receiver, the Colts would rely more on their 3rd down back and Manning’s solid tight end. Caldwell has been with the Colts for some time, and I seriously doubt much will change in terms of fantasy value amongst those players. Tony Dungy always did a good job of coaching coaches, and allowing those coaches to coach their respective positions and do their jobs - I imagine Caldwell follows that way of work.

Eric Mangini takes over in Cleveland, and there’s no doubt that this guy has a quality offensive mind, it’s just that his play calling is brutal. I’m sure things will get better offensively for the stars in Cleveland, well everyone besides back-up running backs. Time will only tell if Jamal Lewis will be back, but if he is, you can bet that Harrison won’t get much time to show what he’s got. Mangini didn’t give Leon Washington the ball nearly enough in New York, and in all honesty, he didn’t give Thomas Jones the ball enough either. Still, the yards per carry and the originality of the offense will improve. I think Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards are both built for Mangini’s ariel assault, the short timing throws, and their athleticism should up their value heading into 2009’s fantasy season. Still, the play calling from Mangini hasn’t impressed me, and the ups and downs will surely frustrate fantasy owners of Browns - but then again, the frustration couldn’t even get close to last season’s debacle - so move all Browns up a little bit if you ask me.

Josh McDaniels gets praised for his work by Bill Belichick - that’s enough for me. The Patriots get more out of their players than any other team in the league, and McDaniels had a first hand look at how great teams are supposed to go about their business, attack opposing teams, and prepare for all kinds of situations. McDaniels seems to be a brilliant offensive mind, but there are still some things to be seen from him as a head coach. Will he be as frustrating as Mike Shanahan was? I doubt it. Mike’s running back carousel probably won’t be something McDaniels goes with, but he did coach in New England, and Belichick used his backs pretty randomly as well - so you never know. One thing I do know is that McDaniels is going to throw the rock, and Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Eddie Royal all moved up a little bit in my book. But one thing you have to remember is that Josh doesn’t have a background of being a head coach, and not all assistants coach just like the guy they coached under - still, with the offensive success under Brady and then Cassel - I seriously doubt that McDaniels has an even based passing and rushing attack. Will he run? You bet - but the pass is going to be what this new offensive mind attacks with, and maybe even more prolifically than Shanny did with the Broncos in ‘08.

Mike Martz leaves San Francisco and I’m really, really sad to see him go. Poor play calls, getting his quarterbacks killed, having mediocre QBs throw 35 times a game, basically begging them to fail - yeah, I’m willing to say that Martz is one of the most ridiculously praised offensive gurus in the league. I’m not sure about how the new OC in San Francisco will attack things, but I’m willing to bet that Frank Gore has more runs (around 20-26 per game) and catches less passes next season. Now Frank has always been a great pass catcher, but he’ll be used a lot out of the backfield, because that’s what Mike Singletary wants. I also think that Gore will be better because of this. And so will the 49ers. Will Shaun Hill (or whomever the QB in San Francisco is) be drafted in all leagues? No, because Mike Martz isn’t here and the new offensive coordinator will be smart enough to realize that throwing the ball 76% of the time isn’t smart. So upgrade the run in SF and downgrade the passing game - this is no longer a Martz influenced unit…

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Filed Under: Fantasy Football
Tagged: Coaching Changes, Eric Mangini, Jim Caldwell, Jim Mora, Josh McDaniels, Matt Cassel, Mike Holmgren, Mike Martz, NFL Coaching Changes, Tom Brady, Tony Dungy

Ask Papa Weimer: Week 17

December 26, 2008 by Papa Weimer · Leave a Comment

Well, I will randomly post up questions with answers as the year moves forward, but this is my last of my seasonal Ask Me questions and answers. I’m always available via e-mail, for questions and advice, so feel free to send in at your will. I got a ton of questions from David this week in an email, and all were solid, so I just printed his one question and my long answers… Hope this helps!

“I want to thank you for all the advice I used and all the advice that I failed to use and I should have used. It enabled me to win my teacher’s league and finish 2nd in my big money league by .4 of a point. It looks like I will be able to play for a few more seasons. Now I need some advice for the playoffs. 1a-I would like you to list the 2 best teams in each conference and 1b-who you think will be in the Superbowl. 2-If you had a chance to draft a team for the playoffs what top 3 QBs would you go after,which 6RBs,and 6 WRs would you target? 3-Are there any players that you think will play in 3 games? 4-What are the 3 best Def to target? I appreciate all the help that you have given me. Also, 5- I am in a keeper league where I can spend $160. I can keep 3 players. Here is my list. Which 3 would you keep and why?

Andre Johnson $25
Ryan Grant $20
Chris Johnson $13
Eddie Royal $6
Jay Cutler $12

6- Finally, are there any RBs or WRs that could have a break out year that will be flying under the radar for next season? What about QBs that could have great seasons? Are you in any playoff leagues?

I would like to say you’re welcome for the advice, and sorry for the poor advice that I gave that might have stopped you from getting #1 in both leagues, but 1 and 2 is pretty solid. I’m in a couple playoff leagues, one in which you just pick the best starting lineup every week (I’m defending Champ there), and one where you pick 25 guys, any 25 you want, and you make a starting lineup every week depending on who gets eliminated from your roster every week. Now for the answers to your questions (but remember, this might all be a little easier if I knew exactly who was going to the playoffs)…

1a. Top Two Teams in Each Conference:
NFC- NY Giants, Carolina Panthers - both rely on the run game, and have solid defenses - that usually means playoff success.
AFC- Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans - I think I’d rank the Titans higher because they run the ball better, but if Big Ben gets his stuff together, and he usually does come playoff time, the Steelers will be tough to beat.
Sorry there’s no flier crazy pick here, but I truly think these top 4 are the top 4, so I have to go that way.

1b. Super Bowl match-up: Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans: Tough one for me. I think the Giants have a chance to get upset. They have some holes, that’s for sure, and they don’t play their best against the rest of the NFC East. If Dallas or Philadelphia somehow get in, and the Giants play one of them in New York in Round 2 of the playoffs, the Giants might get upset. If Carolina plays all their games at home, I think they have a great shot to see the Super Bowl. But really, the NFC is a tough one. AFC too, it’s either the Titans or the Steelers for me, and both have a great shot.

2. Playoff Rankings
QB- Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo or Eli Manning, Peyton Manning…. UGH (I hate the quarterbacks in this one, i have to be honest, I think Ben might be in the longest, and he has a chance to go all the way, and he’s solid so he gets the nod over Kerry Collins and Jake Delhomme, neither of those guys are that good fantasywise. Tony and Peyton both have a chance to play multiple games, if Dallas gets in, they could easily play 3, and Manning will match up against one of the AFC East teams or the AFC West winner, neither of those teams are great, and he has a good match-up in Week 1, plus they can’t run so he’ll be throwing. Romo (if Dallas gets in) will likely play Arizona or whoever wins the North (Chicago or Minnesota) - all are great throwing match-ups, and Dallas is likely better than any of those teams. But this is tough, I might pick four just to make sure.

RB- Brandon Jacobs, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Michael Turner, (AP or Forte - whoever gets in), Marion Barber (I would almost stay exclusively in the NFC, because whomever wins in the AFC wild card round will have to face Tennessee and or Pittsburgh - don’t sign me up for that RB match-up. Pittsburgh’s RB situation is cloudy to say the least, and Tennessee probably has a good match-up in Week 2 of the playoffs, with Chris Johnson being a good match-up against a wild card winner. But that might leave you hanging if the Titans don’t make the Super Bowl. Tough choices.

WR- Steve Smith, TO (if Dallas gets in), Reggie Wayne, Randy Moss (if), Hines Ward, Wes Welker (if) - if the Patriots don’t get in, or if Dallas doesn’t get in, you need three more - Roddy White, Domenick Hixon, Vincent Jackson - if Vince doesn’t get in, maybe take a shot on Arizona and grab Boldin or Fitz, I just don’t see that team winning in the playoffs, but you never know. I didn’t think much of the Giants last year either - how’d that work out for me?

3. I think Dallas, Indy, Atlanta, New England, - and the 4 top seeds all have a chance to play 3 games…

4. I would target only defenses from the AFC, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and maybe Baltimore (if they get in) - that way you’ll have the best shot at starting a D every week, and all those defenses are tough. The only D I’d grab from the NFC is the Giants, and remember, repeating as Super Bowl Champs is really hard to do. If Baltimore doesn’t get in, and you need one Week 1 playoff defense, the winner of the NFC North or the Cowboys might be a decent bet. If Baltimore gets in, I’d surely take the 3 top Ds that I listed.

But all of this depends on how you’re doing this league. If this is a draft, and you are snaking and picking up players, things might be different. The way I do playoff leagues is that you get 25 players of your choice, and every week you start a lineup of QB, RB, Flex, WR, WR, TE, K, D… I kind of remember you maybe doing a draft. If that’s the case, I think the Falcons have a nice shot at winning Week 1 in the playoffs, and a solid shot at Week 2 as well. Roddy, Turner - two solid options.

5. Keeper League Guys:
I would keep Chris Johnson for sure - he’ll never be $13 ever again, kid is only going to get better.
I would probably keep Andre Johnson too - I think the Texans break out next year, and this guy is probably the best young receiving talent in the league. And I also think $25 is a nice price for a top receiver - who were the expensive receivers this year? What did they cost?

Eddie Royal for $6 seems like a steal, but it seems like auction drafts always find you cheap receivers somewhere, is that true? I haven’t done one before, had a couple started, but never got the league all the way through…

If it’s not a PPR league, I think Ryan Grant is a solid buy. He doesn’t have much hype though, and it’s likely that you can get him for around this price next season - so maybe you’d want to go for Cutler…

What did the top 5 QBs go for this season? He’ll definitely be a Top 5 guy next year. Just think about value, I think Jay, Eddie, Chris, and Andre all have climbing value. Grant is about the same, maybe down a bit - you want to keep your best value. But you also want to look at RB options moving forward, if Grant is going to be one of the best RBs left on the board, he might be a keeper option. Not a PPR is it? If it is a PPR league, I think I’d shy away from Ryan.

6: Some guys that have either seen a huge drop in Value, or aren’t respected as much as they should be, that could be goodies next season…

Kevin Smith (I see a lot of talent there), Pierre Thomas (he’s the best running back in New Orleans), Rashard Mendenhall (I still love his game, and I have a feeling Parker might get the snip), Roddy White (one of the best receivers in the game, doesn’t get enough credit), Marques Colston (not sure, but he might have lost a lot of value), Braylon Edwards (so much talent, so many drops, probably drops way down because of those), Ted Ginn Jr (looks to be doing well, next year is his 3rd), Dwayne Bowe (consistent, very consistent and that KC offense seems to be blossoming a little bit), Vincent Jackson (this might finally be the time he meets those expectations he gets from his talent), Maurice Jones Drew (the #1 back in Jacksonville next season, all season- he’s had a great year, and they will undoubtedly have a healthier offensive line next season), Ronnie Brown (they didn’t give him the ball enough this year, Ricky gets older, this kid has all the talent in the world for a team that’s getting better where it counts, on the line), Ryan Torrain (I watched him in half a game, and I see what Mike Shanny sees in him, hopefully Shanny doesn’t go schitzo and change it up, but he’s a deep sleeper), Ray Rice (stay tuned, but Willis might get the snip, and Ray would be in line for at least a Chris Johnson-LenDale White type share of the Ravens backfield), Roy Williams (this is a big shot in the dark, but Dallas traded too much and gave up too much money to see Roy get 3 passes a game, he probably turns into a 1000 yard guy next year, but I think his value will go back up because of Dallas Hype going into next season).

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Filed Under: Fantasy Football Q&A
Tagged: Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football Playoffs, Fantasy Football Predictions, NFL Playoffs, Playoff Fantasy, Playoff Fantasy Rankings

Lucky Lester’s Predictions: YEAR IN REVIEW

December 25, 2008 by luckylester · Leave a Comment

Well, they didn’t all come true, not even most of them - here’s a look back at the crazy predictions section from before the season started. That’s right, I’ve got tabs - check them out.

50 Predictions that Have a GOOD Chance of Coming True

Ricky Williams will have more fantasy points than Ronnie Brown. - Well, I was wrong, Ricky had about 50 less fantasy points than Ronnie.
Ronnie Brown will still have 1000+ total yards from scrimmage. - This is true, headed into the final week, Ronnie had 859 rushing and 239 receiving.
Brett Favre will throw multiple touchdowns in each of his first three games. - Wrong, he had 1 TD in Week 2, but he did throw 2 in Week 1, 3 in Week 3, and 6 in Week 4. Give me a little leniency here, what I was saying is he’d start hot, and he did.
Shaunna Alexander and Michael Strahan will start a boy-band named, “The Gap-Tooth Goons” - What, nobody went to see them perform?
Darren McFadden will rush for over 1100 yards and be a top 15 fantasy running back. - GONG!!! Dead Wrong. Maybe next year!
Rashard Mendenhall will rack up more fantasy points than Willie Parker - neither will be Top 15 backs. - Half and half, neither were top 15 backs, but Willie had more points than Rashard. But you have to see what I’m saying, Mewelde Moore, the #3 ended up with more points than Willie- injuries are tough to predict I guess. But this is a statement that helped you if you were drafting.
Josh Morgan will finish the season with more fantasy points than Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey put together - thank you Mike Martz. - A couple injuries made this a tough one, all guys went through injuries and McDonald was leading headed into Week 17.
Despite the recent DeSean Jackson hype, Eddie Royal will lead all rookie receivers in the fantasy realm. - True. Eddie was a Top 20 WR in the league. And he had DeSean by 30+ fantasy points.
If they play the same amount of games (no injuries), Michael Turner will have more rushing yards than LaDainian Tomlinson in 2008. - Many people laughed, but how ridiculous does this statement seem now that I’m right?
Tom Brady won’t throw more than 35 touchdowns this season. - Well injuries kind of helped my cause here, but I thought he’d miss more than a few games, just not the entire freaking season. Anyway, if he was healthy he would have crushed me. But I might as well be right here.
Calvin Johnson will eclipse these numbers, 80 catches - 1200 yards - 10 touchdowns (ps: pick him). - He had just 69 catches but 1200+ yards and 10 TDs headed into the final week. Your welcome. I’m right where the numbers count most, I’ll take the credit here.
Chris Simms will be a starter before the season is over - somewhere not in Tampa. - Got me here, it could have been Tennessee - I’m beginning to wonder if Simms will ever get a chance?
Devin Hester will score double digit touchdowns for the Bears. - Just 3 TDs for Hester, he let me down, but I still think he’ll be a good one. Maybe next year.
Kyle Orton will be a Top 10 fantasy quarterback in Week 1 against the Colts. I didn’t take into account how bad the Colts run defense would be right off the bat, or how solid their secondary would be. Missed this one.
Marion Barber will be a Top 3 fantasy running back. - Barber basically missed the last four games with an injury. Kind of derailed his run at the top. When he was healthy, he was one of the best around, and those who had him know that.
Steve Smith will have at least 3 multi-touchdown games, eclipse 1100 yards, and easily get into the double digit touchdown category. - Only 6 TDs headed into the final week, but he does have 1287 yards in his 13 games. Not too shabby, but I missed by a few touchdowns. I guess I didn’t think this running game would be so great.
Deion Branch will play in at least 12 games and finish in the Top 30 amongst fantasy receivers. - Whoops. The Seahawks receivers were cursed!
Chris Perry (if you can risk picking the walking wounded) is a great late round pick. He’ll have 1300+ yards from scrimmage and score 7+ touchdowns. - I considered just deleting this one and pretending it never happened. I wish I would have done that when I originally thought of this prediction.
Drew Brees will lead the league in touchdown passes. - Drew has a chance, just 2 behind Philip Rivers going into Week 17. Drew is the top fantasy quarterback though, something to be said for that.
(Two of Three) Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, and Tom Brady will miss at least one football game due to injuries. - Peyton got hit more than ever, and Brett had shoulder issues over the last half of the season, but neither followed Tom’s fate, making this statement incorrect. And I’m glad for that.
Thomas Jones will prove to be a better fantasy player than Willie Parker, Reggie Bush, Willis McGahee, and Brandon Jacobs. - There you have it, hopefully you were like me and owned this guy in many a league. Think, if Eric Mangini wasn’t such a genius, not only would Thomas be closer to the Top 2, but his Jets would be in the playoffs. I’ll take being right though, Thomas had one hell of a year.
Jericho Cotchery will be a Top 14 fantasy receiver. - Nope 25th headed into the Final week, I doubt he gets up to 14.
Antonio Gates will be the top scoring fantasy tight end - don’t believe the bad hype. Nope, he was #4 headed into Week 17 with absolutely no chance of catching one of the best tight ends ever, Tony Gonzalez, who leads the TEs by more than 50 fantasy points. 91 grabs, 1000+ yards, and 9 TDs heading into Week 17, amazing.
Phillip Rivers will throw more touchdown passes than Eli Manning (less interceptions too). - One more interception heading into Week 17, but Rivers leads the league with 32 TD passes while Manning has 21. Eli has been solid. Philip has been unreal.
Chris Johnson will lead the Titans in yards (receiving and rushing combined). - 1488 headed into the final week, he ran away with this title.
Chris Johnson is the NFL’s version of Usain Bolt.- Chris has been amazing. He’s as fast as they get.
One of the following 6 teams will make the playoffs - Dolphins, Raiders, Bears, Falcons, Cardinals, Rams. - Goodness, it looks like four of them could find themselves in the playoffs, the Falcons and Cardinals are already in it to win it.
Frank Gore will eclipse 1,500 total yards, 70 receptions, and score 10+ touchdowns. - Gore has just 1340 yards headed into Week 17, but the last 2 weeks with an ankle injury. He has 8 total touchdowns. I think he would have gotten everything except the 70 receptions. He was on pace to get just over 50 catches, but easily pass those other two marks. With a 160 total yard 2 TD final game performance, he still gets both of those totals. However, I was wrong.
Kurt Warner will be a Top 10 fantasy quarterback. - You bet. Before a late season lull, there was MVP talk about the former Super Ram. He had a great year.
Maurice Morris will be a better fantasy back than Julius Jones. - Well, neither was that exciting, but Maurice will pass Julius with a decent game against the Cardinals on Sunday. All he needs is 60 more yards and a catch and he gets Julius. He’s the starter now. If he didn’t miss a good portion of 6 games I think he’d have it locked up by now. But I’ll take a chance and be pretty sure that Mo gets it.
Larry Johnson will rush for 1,300+ yards and score 12+ touchdowns. - Well, that blew up in my face. He missed four games and never really was the workhorse I expected him to be. He is averaging 4.7 yards per carry with 856 rushing yards and 5 scores, but that whole woman beating incident and the benching, and all that stuff didn’t help his cause. Sorry about this one.
Plaxico Burress will play in less than 11 games. - 9 - kind of crazy, I hope he doesn’t get put in jail - that’s ridiculous, mandatory minimums are as stupid as they sound, but he wasn’t going to play 11 games anyway.
The Giants will finish the season under .500. - Hahaha - probably my worst call of 2008-09 season.
Chris Taylor will lead the Houston Texans in rushing yards and scores. - Chris, meet Steven Slaton. Wrong.
Anthony Gonzalez will have a similar year (give or take a few fantasy points) to Brandon Stokely a few years ago when he played with the Colts - 1077 yards, 68 catches, 10 touchdowns. - No sir! Try 56 for 652 and 4 touchdowns heading into Week 17.
During the fantasy playoffs (week’s 14-16) Adrian Peterson (Vikings) will have more yards and touchdowns than any other running back. - Yards? Maybe - Touchdowns, no way. Either way, I was wrong about this one.
The Patriots will win 13 games during the regular season. - They might get 11, but tough call without Brady in there, wish I knew that.
Ryan Torrain will start at least 5 games for the Broncos later this season. He would have started them all down the stretch, but like all the other Bronco backs, Ryan went down with an injury. In his first game starting, too.
Chad Johnson will lead the NFL in receiving yards despite his shoulder ouchy. - Carson Palmer didn’t play after the first couple weeks - Chad had his worst year as a pro.
Vince Young will throw more touchdowns than interceptions. Even in his one game, this was a false statement.
Lee Evans will score 10+ touchdowns. - 3 TDs. Ha.
Bernard Berrien will have his best receiving totals of his career - yards, catches, and touchdowns. - If BB gets 70 yards and a score in Week 17, he has the most TDs and yards in a single season for his career. He only has 44 catches though, he won’t catch that mark.
Wes Welker won’t match last season’s totals, he’ll eclipse them - (yards and touchdowns for sure). - He will have more yards and catches with a 4 grab 40 yard performance against the Bills, basically a lock, but Tom’s absence hurt his TD total, as Wes only has 3 this year.
Ben Watson will be a Top 12 tight end. - Nope.
Four rookie running backs will rush for over 1000 yards (I’m thinking Darren McFadden, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, and Kevin Smith - but keep your eye on Ryan Torrain, Jonathan Stewart, and Rashard Mendenhall. - Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Steve Slaton all have eclipsed 1000. Kevin Smith needs 120 to get it, and you know what, I think he does. Teh biggest surprise? Try Slaton. His stock dropped, and it’s beginning to look like there was no reason for it.
The Eagles will not have a 1000 yard receiver - but they’ll still win 10 games. - Right and wrong. Even if the Eagles win against the Boys, they still don’t win 10, they go 9-5-1. Nice tie folks. Unless DeSean Jackson goes off for 136+, they won’t have a 1000 yard rusher.
Donovan McNabb will be a Top 5 fantasy quarterback. - 8th overall, 29 points behind 5th…
Jake Delhomme will finish in the Top 8 amongst QBs. - 19th headed into Week 17, not gonna do it.
Leon Washington will score at least 6 touchdowns while having at least 3 games with 100+ yards (receiving and rushing combined) - 7 touchdown (5 rushing and 2 receiving - and then you add in return scores and you get even more. But he only had one 100+ yard game. Not used enough. Thanks again Man-Jina!
Barrack Obama will become president in one of the most lopsided elections in recent history. Lopsided in electoral votes anyway. Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

There you have it, dig it, disagree with it, recognize it - just get ready for me to gloat when prediction becomes truth - I’ll keep tabs so you don’t have to!

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Filed Under: Fantasy Football
Tagged: 2008 Fantasy Predictions, Fantasy Predictions, NFL Predictions, Prediction Review

theRUNDOWN: Week 17

December 24, 2008 by Papa Weimer · Leave a Comment

What is theRUNDOWN? I pick my best team of the week, some nice plays with a few reasons to back up my picks. I’ll list a few sleepers and some guys I wouldn’t play unless I had nobody else, we call these splinter butts because of their need to be benched - this is the last week of the year, and quite possibly the last Rundown ever - only because I figure there might be a better way to go about my weekly fantasy predictions -anyway, without further a due, this is theRUNDOWN for Week 17.

QB: Phillip Rivers vs. Denver: Because this is Philip Rivers’ team now, and they will need him to continue his huge season to get into the playoffs. Not only that, but this guy somehow got snubbed by not making the Pro-Bowl, and he’s out to show everyone the mistake they made.

RB: Kevin Smith vs. Green Bay: The Packers lost yet another game that they should have won when they took an OT shot to the face last week against the Bears. The Packers can’t stop the run, and I know Kevin is getting the ball 23-30 times this week. That’s more than I can say about most running backs - with playing time in question, I’ll take this solid young back that’s gotten better as the season matured.

RB: Michael Turner vs. St. Louis: The Falcons have to go into their game against the Rams with hopes of a first round bye. That means Turner pounding the Rams into submission, and that’s a good thing for Mike Turner owners. I think he’ll have a huge Week 17.

FLEX: Pierre Thomas vs. Carolina: It’s a tough match-up for Thomas, but in this PPR format and in a game that should be close, he’s going to get around 20 carries and 5-8 catches - that makes for a good game from this ultra-talented back.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald vs. Seattle: This guy is a beast for Seattle’s little corners to match-up with, and I think the Cardinals come out winging it around against the Hawks. Fitzy is one of the most consistent receivers in the league, and in a game where Arizona needs to find their mojo, I see Kurt looking under the Larry Fitz rock.

WR: Terrell Owens vs. Philadelphia: He hasn’t had a real big week in a while, but I think TO gets back to wrecking the Eagles with a huge game against his former team. TO is a gong-show, no doubt about that, but he’s a gong-show with amazing ability, the ability he loves to torment the Eagles with.

TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. Cincinnati: I’m not giving up on Tony - he’s legit, against Cincinnati he looks like the best play around.

K: Robbie Gould vs. Houston: Dome games and kickers are a nice combo, and the Bears offense is just bad enough to move a little bit and get in FG range before being halted.

D: Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland: I just see Ken Dorsey causing more problems for the Browns offense, and the Steelers turnover causing defense will be at it again, starters or not.

PAPA’S Week 17 SLEEPERS

Tyler Thigpen: I like this match-up, especially if you get more points for a quarterback rushing touchdown. Thigpen gets 40-50 yards a week, and it most leagues that’s just like a free touchdown. He’s a great start this week against the Bungles.
Jason Campbell: With the last game here, and the pressure off, maybe Zorn will take the reigns off as they say. Let the kid throw the ball down field!
Joe Flacco: I like the kid this week against the Jags, what’s not to like?
Larry Johnson: I’m thinking that LJ gets more carries this week than he has over the last few weeks, and I think he does some nice work against the Bengals.
Fred Jackson: I don’t think Lynch plays, and that makes Jackson a great start. Fred does a lot of things well, catching the ball too, and he should get lots of touches against the Patriot, and that’s a good thing against a run defense that isn’t great.
Jon Stewart: I think Stewart gets the Lion’s share of the carries this week as Williams gets a little bit of a rest. I think Stewart has a BIG game.
Chad Johnson: Chad hasn’t had a big game all year - that’s too rare for this game breaker, even if Ryan Fitz is his QB - I like him to have his highest yardage output of the season against the Chieftains.
Mewelde Moore: He’s been better than Fast Willie, so much so that I think Parker gets the axe headed into next season. Moore will get a lot of carries this week, and that’s good for him.
Mark Bradley: You bet! The former Bear is back in action, and I’m willing to bet that he has a big game in his second game back from injury. Thigpen loves him. Anytime Mark’s on the field, Tyler has seemed to have big games.
Greg Olsen: How about the Bears knowing what’s good for them and getting the ball to this playmaker? I see them doing that in the final week.
Atlanta Falcons: Bye week #2 seed on the line, St. Louis in their way, I see big plays and a big day from Atlanta.

Papa’S Week 17 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)
Peyton Manning: If he plays, he won’t play long, the Colts are one of the few teams in football that can’t better or worsen their position this week, and Tony Dungy is a guy that believes in resting his stars before the playoffs.
Marshawn Lynch: What do the Bills gain by playing Lynch? Nothing is the answer, except further risk of a lingering ailment.
Jamal Lewis: No thank you. What an impossible season schedule for Jamal.

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Filed Under: theRUNDOWN
Tagged: Fantasy Football Finale, Fantasy Football Week 17, Fantasy Sports, Fantasy Week 17, NFL Fantasy, TheRundown Week 17

theRUNDOWN Review: Week 16

December 24, 2008 by Papa Weimer · Leave a Comment

Well it didn’t go all bad for me this week - wait, yes it did- not only did I lose in 3 fantasy superbowls, but I also lost my lunch at the local Cost-Cutter, and then I throw out this gross number - 130 - but I guess it’s been worse- This was theRUNDOWN for Week 16.
QB: Jay Cutler vs. Buffalo: Jay was the 5th rated quarterback this week, behind Rivers, Manning, and Cassel and Tyler Thigpen - his 27 fantasy points helped me win, but it didn’t help his Broncos stay away from having a loser out game in San Diego next week - awesome. I really win twice there.
RB: Maurice Jones Drew vs. Indianapolis: Jones Drew did a great job of catching some balls, and that gave me some solid pointage. In fact, he was the #4 running back in the league last week. I’ll take those 23 points with a smile.
RB: Matt Forte vs. Green Bay: I needed 19 from Forte to win one of my fantasy super bowls - as it turned out he only finished with 17, so I lost. Tough one to take, I thought GB would allow big stuff to Forte - it hurts to be wrong.
FLEX: Thomas Jones vs. Seattle: Jones had 11 - I hate Eric Mangini.
WR: Andre Johnson vs. Oakland: AJ had 3 fantasy points - I didn’t get to see the game, but I was thinking he must be sitting this one out. Then I saw him catch a late pass, and wondered where he was all day. Apparently covered on lockdown.
WR: Randy Moss vs. Arizona: Randy had 16, converting one deep touchdown on a wide receiver screen. He may be getting older, but tell the Cardinals that he’s lost a step.
TE: Tony Gonzalez vs. Miami: TG had 19 - he’s my hero.
K: Josh Brown vs. San Francisco: Josh Brown had 11, one of my top scorers. I’m getting this kicker thing down pat.
D: Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee: I was wrong here, the Steelers defense was abused a little, and they gave up enough points to hurt me, they got 2 fantasy points.
PAPA’S Week 16 SLEEPERS
Tyler Thigpen: A couple picks, but great numbers otherwise and 3 total touchdowns. I win again. A+
Dan Orlovsky: I get a good one with Thigpen, then a crap pick here - Dan-O did notta. F
Shaun Hill: 18 fantasy points? You bet, not a Tyler Thigpen day, but still a start you should have made I’m guessing. B+
Pierre Thomas: He didn’t have to do that much work against the Lions. In the middle of the 2nd quarter, the Saints had 4 rushing TDs one of which went to Pierre. Still he pulled home 16 points, not too shabby for a half day’s work. B
Kevin Smith: All he did was rush for 111 yards and a touchdown - can’t argue with those numbers. A-
Leon Washington: Whoops! F.
Kevin Walter: 2 catches for 17 yards - sorry about this one guys, big swing and a miss. F
Devin Hester: 2 catches for 12 yards, good day to be a receiver on my fantasy squad apparently. F
Tory Holt: 4 grabs for 55 yards - that doesn’t really do it, but it basically tripples peformances from Walter and Hester… C-
Jeremy Shockey: He got hurt, but seeing as though I might deserve it, I’ll take the F.
Miami Dolphins: The Fins had 11, but they picked some balls off and were that close to having a big day. C-
Papa’S Week 15 Splinter-Butts (bench him, son)
Tony Romo: I was right on the button until his last minute toss to Jason Witten - oh well, he had a decent game but not great. I started Rivers over him in my league, and it helped me out.
LaDainian Tomlinson: 25th overall, if that was good enough for you to start him, than sorry for the advice. He got 13 fantasy points - like I said, there’s a lot of guys I’d start over LT this week. 24 would have worked out.
Maurice Morris: 29 carries for 119 yards against the Jets. I’ll be the first to say that’s about 60 yards more than I expected. He didn’t score and didn’t catch a ball, he had 11 - not a great sit by me, but not a bad one either.
Santonio Holmes: 5 catches, 93 yards, and one diving touchdown catch. Needless to say I blew this one.

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Filed Under: theRUNDOWN Review
Tagged: fantasy football analysis for week 16, Fantasy Football Week 16, fantasy review for week 16, week 16 review

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