Fantasy Football Predictions: From the Window to the Wall!

Every guy in fantasy does something in terms of predicting the future. That’s what you do when you pick Chris Johnson over Adrian Peterson or Mike Williams over Mike Williams… err… that last one is tough to read. Anyway, you get me, you could just be following some dink’s rankings, or you could be using them as a guideline – regardless, at the end of the season you can always see how your predictions ended up. Last year, it was easy to see that Anthony Gonzalez and Eddie Royal didn’t blow up the world like I thought they would, and my fantasy squads suffered. The tough thing about being a sportswriter, aside from the obvious ribbing you take from your friends about how you don’t have a real job, is that your predictions are right there for everyone to see. If you’re a responsible cat like myself, you even do reviews so readers don’t have to look hard to find the true outcome. Last year, as I said above, my pre-season predictions weren’t right on the ball. But this year, oh yes – there is always a new year, I’m swinging for the fences and you can bet your biscuit that I’m making contact. Jump in, buckle up, we’re going for a ride!

Below are 21 Predictions (for my black-jack junky friends out there, this one’s for you!) for the upcoming fantasy season. Some are wild, some are sure, but they are all predictions that can be used against me in a court of fantasy law. These predictions go everywhere from the window to the wall! Lets play some football!

1. LaDainian Tomlinson rushes for more yards than he did last season as San Diego’s #1 running back. The Jets’ line is legit, and LT can still run with a egg-shaped ball.

2. Brett Favre calls an end to a few streaks: His consecutive start streak will end, his last pass won’t be an interception, and he won’t come back ever, ever again when this season is done – so enjoy one of the last real cowboys!

3. Shonn Greene will have at least 7-100 yard games, and rush for at least 10 touchdowns. Why? The guy is a beast, and his offensive line is one of if not the best in football.

4. Sam Bradford will throw more touchdowns than interceptions, which would be nuts for a rookie QB on a bad team with limited help at receiver. He’s gonna be good, folks.

5. Either Peyton Manning or Drew Brees won’t finish as a Top 5 fantasy QB. I know it’s crazy to think that, the Colts have been so good and the Saints look unstoppable – but the NFC South is crazy, and the Saints have one of the easiest schedules in football (which means less passing, you’d think) and the Texans, Titans, and even the Jaguars are much improved, making it tougher on Manning. Some king has to stumble.

6. Mike Sims-Walker will finish the season as a Top 10 fantasy receiver. People go either way on Mike, either you love him or you hate him. He wasn’t a beacon of consistency in 2009, but remember, he wasn’t even a starter out of the gates, and was showing his stuff for the first time.

7. Mike Bush will double Darren McFadden’s fantasy numbers. He’s better, and the Raiders are starting to realize it.

8. Terrell Owens > Chad Ochocinco in 2010. Draft accordingly.

9. Have you ever watched Percy Harvin play football? If not, you’re missing out. That guy gives more migraines than he gets, I’ll tell you that much. I think he plays in 16 games this season, and catches at least 76 balls for over 1100 yards and racks up at least 8 touchdowns – and blocks the snot out of 100 unsuspecting defensive backs.

10. Wes Welker ends up with more fantasy production than Brandon Marshall. In other words, don’t draft Brandon.The Patriots throw it like a hot potato, the Dolphins run like Forrest. I wouldn’t worry too much about Welker’s health, if anybody is back to 100% quick, it’s that guy.

11. Greg Jennings is worth his price in Gold. The Packers’ receivers are really good – but Greg is the best of the bunch. His stats didn’t show it last year, they will this year. Stick him in the Top 7 right now.

12. Larry Fitzgerald will finish outside of the Top 10 WRs. So don’t draft him – even if you’re in a dynasty league, I’m telling you – let somebody else draft him, then go ahead and trade for him when that owner is crying and doing anything to salvage his season. I was once high on Leinart, now I’m backing off, but either way, teams will be doubling the bejeezers out of Fitzy.

13. Rashard Mendenhall is one of the few true #1 running backs in the NFL. That’s why he sneaks into the Top 7 RBs this season.

14. What do you get when you cross a donkey with moron? You get a quarterback that will miss the first 4 games of the season and still finish in the Top 15 amongst his own position.

15. Don’t be confused, there is nobody worth starting in Cleveland. I’m not kidding, not one guy on that team will finish in the Top 20 at his respective position. That’s rare, but it’s going to be true.

16. One of the highest paid QBs in the NFL, Eli Manning, will finally finish in the Top 10 amongst QBs. I’m not a fan of Eli, mostly his stupid face, but with Smith, Nicks, Manningham, Bradshaw, and Kevin Boss – and a tough schedule that will have him throwing early and often – Eli gets in the Top 10 for the first time.

17. Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, and Jeremy Maclin (all sophomores) will, as a threesome, easily outscore Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, and Chad Ochocinco (unless Chad changes his name back to Johnson, then he has a chance to turn this whole thing around). Nicks and Harvin both become #1s this season while Maclin’s elite touchdown scoring ability goes wild under Kolb’s arm.

18. Johnny Knox, currently ranked 38th on ESPN.com, finished the year above half the people rated above him. Two names put together to form an odd looking guy with no respect for turnovers – Mike Martz. It might not make the Bears win, but it will make Knox go wild.

19. I’m gonna go on ahead and say that Anquan Boldin finishes with more fantasy points than Larry Fitzgerald. I know, I know, 50 people have already wrote me telling me I’m crazy, and 20 of those have always said that Boldin is nothing but a #2 WR. You’ll be eating them, folks, not me.

20. Zach Miller, Devin Aromashodu, Nate Burleson, Vince Young, Laurent Robinson – all guys ranked out of the Top 100 and I’m betting 4 of the 5 finish in the Top 100.

21. Tom Brady returns to the #1 spot amongst QBs. Yeah, Brees won’t throw as much this year – Manning has a little bit more in the run-game, and Aaron Rodgers’ Packers need to run it more to be consistent. Brady is going to throw 40 touchdowns again – because he can.

Ask Papa Weimer: Elite Fantasy Football Advice

I got another good email from a reader, David, and the answers can certainly help you with your fantasy drafts this coming weekend… So here it is, an excerpt from my Email conversation with David. For all your football questions, both fantasy and reality, write to papaweimer50@hotmail.com.

If I can’t get a top 7 QB what are my options? Could you give 2 or 3 QB combos that could help me out?

If you don’t get a Top 7 guy, I would go with upside with two quarterback slots. Jay Cutler is in a big time passing offense with Mike Martz, kevin Kolb has the same deal with the Eagles, Ben Roethlisberger is slipping way down drafts because he’s missing 2-6 games those are 3 guys you might want to target as a tag team QB duo that could really produce like a Top 7 guy.

David Garrard, Carson Palmer, and Joe Flacco are 3 other guys that I would consider – though all have their scary sides (Flacco is the biggest sure thing in my opinion).

If I can’t get a top TE, which 2 or 3 of these guys could be my man and why?
(Winslow, Cooley, Shiancoe, Z Miller, H Miller, J Carlson)

I really liike Winslow, Cooley, Shiancoe, and Zach Miller. I don’t know about Heath Miller, I worry about him matching last year’s high in production – but with Santonio Holmes gone, Miller might get more targets. Carlson is a nice talent, and Pete Carol’s offense likes TEs, but I don’t know how much I’d want a secondary Seahawk target. Winslow is the most talented pass catcher of that bunch, a go-to-guy, which is nice to have at the TE spot – you know he’ll be getting looks. But he’s in Tampa and is an injury concern.

Cooley is in a new offense, but McNabb loves TEs and Chris is probably the best receiving option in Washington, something to like a lot about that. Also Shanny’s offense seems to appreciate the big pass catchers.

Shiancoe gets Favre back and loses Sydney Rice. That might put a little more attention from defenses into Visanthe’s direction, but it will also get him more looks – likely.

Zach Miller is great after the catch, a very impressive TE but he plays in Oakland. Like Cooley and Winslow, he’s probably the best receiver on his team – now it’s just believing in Campbell or not.

The other night my buddy and I were discussing it, and we both thought Shiancoe and Zach Miller had the best chance of breaking into LuckyLester’s Top Tier at TE – however, Cooley and Winslow are in my top tier – it’s a tough call, and they are all close. And Shiancoe moves into my top tier now with Brett back – I would say all four are pretty safe bets.

What 2 or 3 Def would be a sneaky good play (Sleeper) the first and 2nd week of the season?

The Giants aren’t getting much love and should be a lot better defensively, they play the Panthers in Week 1. San Diego and Miami get KC and Buffalo, both are pretty good match-ups as well.

Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Football PreSeason Week 3

Alright, I’m back again for another session of Ask Papa Weimer! I’ll be here all year folks, so enjoy it, ask questions, read answers, agree, disagree, tell me so when you get a chance, and interact as much as possible. I’m old like dirt and rocks and Al Michaels, so I don’t have much else to do besides spit knowledge about the grand game of football and answer emails. Throw your emails to papaweimer50@hotmail.com. Seriously. I was a little low on emails this week, so I had to start a new section (see the bottom of the article, “Weimer’s Absolutes”)  – but it might be for the better, humor is a hell of a drug! Continue on, my good reader, it gets better from here!!!

BonJovisIdol writes, “I loved Lucky Lester’s article “Don’t Sleep on Me” and the two guys he’d pick ahead of the higher drafted player at each position. What I want to know is, how would you rank the running backs he listed in that article? And do you guys always agree on rankings?”

First of all, we don’t always agree. In fact, we love to disagree – it’s a family thing. We often really like the same players coming into a season, but that’s because we both recognize value coming into the year, guys getting ignored, guys getting overdrafted – stuff like that. But we definitely don’t always agree. Lucky talked about Ryan Matthews, Ryan Grant, and Beanie Wells – and I really liked the points he made. I must say, however, I watched Ryan Matthews play the other night, and he looks like a special runner. He looked very natural catching the ball, and besides pushing his own blocker in the back, he seemed to have a good feel in that offense. But he’s still a rookie, which is one of the points my nephew lists. I think Ryan Grant is the surest thing of the three and Beanie Wells has the most upside. I expect Darren Sproles to get plenty of touches in that San Diego offense and Beanie has to deal with Tim Hightower stealing touches (especially if he has fumble troubles – Ken Whisenhunt doesn’t like that). Ryan Grant doesn’t have to deal with anything (though Brandon Jackson looks better than I’ve ever seen him). I would rank them like this, Beanie Wells, Ryan Grant, and then Matthews – so I kind of agree with LL. I’m an upside guy, and I think Beanie could be awesome with more carries in his sophomore season. I also like Rashard Mendenhall, whom NFL.com has rated behind Matthews. Rashard will be great in 2010.

Bill from here asks, “How many fantasy football leagues are you in? How many is too many? In a league with 10 buddies, what would you consider a good buy-in, payout format to be? Any good rules we should add? Thanks!”

Crazy Bill, I’m also from here. I like your question, however. I usually get questions about rankings, players’ upsides, junk mail, and trades, but every once in a while I get questions like this, and I really like to share my confident opinion about actual fantasy settings – as good settings can make the game a lot more fun to play. I am only in 3 leagues this season, the fewest in the last 10 years. I’ve cut down a little bit, as writing and answering emails have given me a new outlet. One of my leagues is a 2-player keeper league with a $275 buy-in, it’s a total points league (no versus) with a lot of ways to get paid out. The highest score each week gets $30. The top 4 finishers make money, $1000, $600, $300. Then there is a survivor pool where the winner makes $150. And there’s a playoff fantasy format (pick the best fantasy starting line-up every week) where the winner gets the remainder of the pot. That league is awesome. It has a quirky set-up with points bonuses at 100 yards and 200 yards for RBs and WRs, an 250 and 500 yards for QBs, and 50 yards for TEs.  One of my leagues is a dynasty league (full roster keeper) with a rookie draft the day after the NFL draft finishes every year – the buy-in is $35, it’s a pretty basic PPR. I’m in another league with an auction draft. You get to keep 4 players if you want. There are salary rules, $10 more for 2nd year keepers, $15 more for 3rd year keepers, and a 4th year at $5 more. So if you draft a guy for $1, next year you can keep him for $11. The next year you have to decide if you want to keep him for year 3 and 4, or let him go. Year 3 and 4 will be $26 then $31 – but once you decide to sign them for the final two years, you have to keep them for those years. The more unique rules, the better! I love auctions as well. I don’t like full roster keepers leagues, as drafting is one of the more delightful aspects of fantasy football. I think 3 is probably too many for me, but Lucky enjoys having about 7. It’s all preference. I think every league should have blind bidding for free agents – first come first serve is kind of stupid, and “worst to first” is a little fishy as well. Blind bidding starts everyone out with the same free agent bucks, and from there it’s up to the owner to wast that cash. Just adds to the game!

Samson from Darrington, Washington says, “Give me one sleeper! That’s all I ask!”

Don’t cut your hair. I’ll give you one better, I’ll give you two. Draft Michael Bush. Draft Eddie Royal. Your welcome. Neither of those guys get drafted in your average 10-team fantasy league. Both should be. If it’s a real deep league, go with Mike Williams in Seattle – not Mike Williams in Tampa (I really like him, too, but he’ll get drafted in most leagues). Good luck, Samson.

Don’t SLEEP on Me: A New Fantasy Sleeper Article

This may be a different kind than you are used to, but it’s still a  sleeper article. I’m not putting together your normal run of the mill sleeper piece here, I’m taking a guy and where he is normally drafted, and giving you two options that I like more – always two guys that are getting drafted after that player. (One time I give you three guys I like more) So, they are sleepers – sort of. If the masses take one guy in the 2nd round, and I’m picking two guys drafted in the 4th round that should out-produce that guy, then they are great value picks – or people are “sleeping” on them. It kind of works, right?

For example, last year a lot of people were taking Jay Cutler higher than Donovan McNabb and Matt Schaub – I said, hey, these two guys are going to be better than Cutler, and you can get them later. Wallah! They both ended up as better picks than Jay. This year, I have some more tidbits for your enjoyment! I’m using a major fantasy site’s numbers for my ADP (average draft position).

And why not start with the one and only…..

1. Chad Ochocinco (ADP 41): First of all, the guy was a lot better when his last name was Johnson. Now he’s going to compete for touches with TO, a guy that might be better for Cincinnati’s offense. Listen, there’s no doubt Chad can be good again, but he was inconsistent on a week-to-week basis when he was piling up nice numbers – now hat Cinci is a run-first (and second for that matter) team, don’t draft him just for the name. He’s getting picked 41st overall right now. Instead, I’d go with one of these two guys in the next round or later…

———-Mike Sims-Walker (ADP 53): I’d rather have Sims-Walker right now. If I had the 41st pick and Mike and Chad were the only two guys left, I’d take MSW in a heartbeat. He’s younger, and more of a physical freak than Chad – especially now. He’s the sure-thing #1 receiver and proved last season that he could handle #1 corners. He’ll be better this season because the entire Jaguars offense will be better, offensive line especially. If you’re at the top of the draft, and Chad is there late in the 4th round – pick a running back or a top flight quarterback, and wait until the way back in the 5th round and get MSW.

———-Johnny Knox (ADP 119):I would not be surprised at all if Knox finishes ahead of Chad. If I were picking between Ocho and Knox, it would be a tough decision to make – but you don’t have to make that decision – nope – you will be passing on Chad and picking up Knox 6-8 rounds later. Make sure and take him 5 rounds later, I don’t know – but he’s a much better upside pick that CJ, and as the #1 receiver in a Mike Martz offense, with a quarterback sporting a rocket-arm, he should smack last year’s numbers in the face. I don’t expect any kind of sophomore slump from Knox in 2010.

2. Ryan Mathews (ADP 15): Now I like Ryan Mathews a lot, he’s a very talented all around runner that won’t struggle with any one thing. And he looks to be in a pretty good situation in San Diego. BUT, he’s still just a rookie, and the more you look at San Diego the more you see that looks can be, and probably are, deceiving. Both Sproles and LT struggled last year – and while LT might have lost his lunge, Sproles was still a guy that produced at a good rate in 2008. So what was different in 2009? Line play, that’s what. And the more you look at this years’ Chargers, the cloudier the offensive line looks. If you’re expecting vintage LT numbers out of Matthews, you might want to look elsewhere. In fact, I wouldn’t draft Matthews at all, instead, I’d pick one of these guys…

———-Ryan Grant (ADP 27): If you had the 5th pick in your “average” fantasy draft, you could pass on Matthews with your 2nd round pick, grab an elite receiver instead (Wayne and Fitzgerald have ADPs of 16 and 17) and you’d still get Grant with your 3rd round pick. You can never predict exactly how a draft will go, but we’re talking averages here. Grantdidn’t explodelast year, but he still went over 1200 yards with double digit touchdowns. He was consistently putting up points, just what you want from your #2 RB.

———-Beanie Wells (ADP 43): Beanie is going to be a beast this year – that’s what I think anyway. First of all, the Cardinals are going to run the ball A LOT more this season. Kurt Warner and his accurate right jab are gone, in comes Matt Leinart (master of the handoff) and so come the carries. Tim Hightower is a solid RB, especially as a back-up, and that’s what he’ll be. It took Beanie about half the season to figure out this NFL thing, but figure it out he did. In part time duty he rushed for nearly 800 yards and 7 touchdowns with a 4.5 average. You can get him nearly 30 picks after the rookie in San Diego – and I’d rather have Wells than Matthews anyway.

3. Matt Ryan (ADP 86): Matty Ice sure had a great rookie season – so great that he was expected to be the next great thing in his sophomore campaign. Well, the Falcons struggled and so did Ryan. He wasn’t terrible, but ended up the 15th best QB in the league, averaging just over 13 fantasy points per contest. He’ll be better this year, definitely, but his ADP still puts him as a starting QB – just 5 spots out of the Top 10 – but if I’m going for a starter that late, I’m not putting my money on Matty Ice, nope, I’m taking one of these two guys instead.

———-Donovan McNabb (ADP 99): Donovan is still good, and I don’t think going to a team that will lean more on the run-game, and give him some more play action options (which he has always been good at), will hurt his game. Do I think he’ll come into a new team and rule the fantasy world like Brett did last year? Nope – but in Santana Moss, Devin Thomas, Chris Cooley and a nice (but old) stable of running backs (and a very good coach to boot, though I think Splinter is a crazy SOB), McNabb should have plenty of weapons to utilize this season. He was a Top 7 QB last season, and I expect him to stay in the Top 10 in Washington – an entire round later than Ryan and more fantasy points to boot. Sounds good to me!

———-David Garrard (ADP 123): Enter the always solid, never sexy late starting quarterback pick. I like Garrard more this year than either of the last two seasons. That offensive line in Jacksonville has to stay healthier this season, and they are a young talented bunch that is maturing. In Mike Sims-Walker David has a sure #1 receiver, something he’s never had coming into a season. I expect him to do better than his 15 fantasy points per game from last season, and outscore the golden kid.

———-Ben Roethlisberger (ADP 119): I don’t like this guy, not one damn bit – but he’s still going to be a solid quarterback, and whenever he gets back to playing (rumors say he could be back by Week 3, at the latest Week 7) he’ll be a better option than Matt Ryan. Don’t grab him as your #1, but if you end up getting your #1 late, it might be smart to secure a sure-thing solid QB option by Week 7. Ben averaged 20 points per game last season.

4. Jason Witten (ADP 52): Witten is going to get less chances this year than ever before, or so I predict. With Austin coming into his own, Roy Williams putting in a ton of off-season work with Romo, Dez Bryant getting drafted, and Felix Jones/Marion Barber tandem both proving to be good receiving targets – I don’t know how Witten could possibly be a top TE this season. He’s good, no doubt, but targets and touchdowns won’t come as often as they did in 2008 – maybe 2009. And while he’ll still be a solid TE option, he’s not worth his weight in ADP – nope, instead, I’d go with one of these two guys…

———-Brent Celek (ADP 62): I’d rather have Celek than Witten, straight up, and you can get him 10 picks later. Donovan McNabb is gone, sure, but the Eagles are always going to throw the ball, and Kolb might even be more accurate than Donovan. I’ll tell you right now that Celek has as sure a set of hands as any guy on that roster, and he’s a heck of a lot bigger than either of the light-weights running routes from the outside. Celek will top Witten in catches and touchdowns – so you should take him instead.

———-Zach Miller (ADP 112): Okay, I would rather have Witten than Miller – but it’s a hell of a lot closer than you’d think. As I said, Witten has to compete with a lot of talent to get his numbers – right now, as Miller is easily the best receiving option in Oakland – and the guy is talented. He gets big after the catch numbers and Jason Campbell has always loved to throw to tight ends. Miller may have been a bit of a bust last year, but not this time around – oh no, he’s going to be a steal some 60 picks after Jason Witten. If JW finishes more than 20 fantasy points above Zach Miller I’d be stunned.

Ask Papa Weimer: Pre-Season 2010 Week 1

I’m back and older than I’ve ever been. Okay, maybe not. I was in Korea just recently and over there you are 1-2 years older than you are over here on this side of that giant saltwater bust. So I guess I’m younger than I was a few weeks ago, but older than I’ve ever been in the US… Wow, the older you get the more you learn and you realize you don’t know anything – except football. Everyone knows that I know that, and until my brain farts and changes my football knowledge into reality TV knowledge, I’m here for you the reader. Here comes another year of ASK PAPA WEIMER… As always, and some of you know very well, you can reach me at papaweimer50@hotmail.com – that’s where you ask the questions and I answer them. I’ll pick my favorite few questions out every week and throw them up on stage for all to enjoy. Let the knowledge spew!!!

The Predictor from New Jersey writes, “Papa, it’s been a while but I recently had an argument with my pillsbury dough boy of a buddy about Chris Johnson’s chances of busting 2000 yards for the 2nd straight year. The bet is on. He’s a bit of a dreamer and predicted he breaks the single season rushing record. I’m a bit of a realist and say he finishes under 1800 yards – if you had to predict one way or another, which way would you wiggle?”

Well, I think you’re on the right side of that bet, sir. First of all, Chris Johnson went through a ton of touches last year, and just being able to stay healthy through all 16 games will be a feat in and of itself. Chris Johnson might be the fastest of all great backs I have watched, his speed defies reality, and that gives him a chance at eclipsing the 2000 yard plateau again, because defenses truly might not be fast enough to catch the guy. However, no back in the history of the NFL has rushed for 2000 yards in back to back seasons. No back, ever. We’re not talking about a back to back 1500 yard receiver or a quarterback that throws for 4500 yards in two straight – nope, we’re talking about a running back that gets smashed at least 4 times every single game. That gets hit probably 25 times a game. I would be on your side of the bet for anything up to 5 grand (after that I’d be stealing from my nephew if I lost) – but I would be pretty secure about my bet. But remember, that’s why they call it gambling! PS – I like bets that have a middle ground where nobody goes down. Especially when two guys predict something – if you’re right, you win the money – if he’s right, he wins – but if you are both wrong, well, nobody wins – and that is legit.

Chance in Salt Lake City, Utah asks, “Everyone gets excited about rookies every single year, but last years’ rookies often lose some of their luster after sub-par rookie campaigns (and rookies rarely tear it up, so it happens often) – who are your Top sophomores for this year’s fantasy season?”

Astute observations Chance, it wouldn’t surprise me if you were usually successful in your fantasy football ventures – it’s the “against the masses” kind of thinking that keeps you at the top of the game. Here’s a quick list of my Top 8 Sophomores for the 2010 FF campaign. I chose 8 because I’m weird, and 5 or 10 would have been normal.

1. Beanie Wells
2. Shonn Greene
3. Michael Crabtree
4. Hakeem Nicks
5. Knowshon Moreno
6. Percy Harvin
7. Jeremy Maclin
8. LeSean McCoy

Now, these guys all have their questions – but there is a much better chance for these five guys to outscore the top 8 rookies, no doubt about that. Matthew Stafford, Mike Wallace, Mark Dirty Sanchez, and Josh Freeman (among others) all deserve a look as well, but I only had room for 8. That sophomore class is dirty. That being said, here are my Top 5 rookies for the 2010 season.

1. Ryan Matthews
2. C.J. Spiller
3. Golden Tate
4. Dexter McCluster
5. Jahvid Best
6. Mike Williams
7. Sam Bradford
8. Dez Bryant

Montario Hardest, Ben Tate, and Toby Gerhard all could have a chance to shine as well. But again, you are right on the button Chance. I will be stunned if the bottom eight get even close to that Top 8 – but then again, crazier things have happened! Keep going for value, go for the jugular!

Billy The Fantasy God in the Idaho wonders, “What’s the difference between you and me? You’re giving out your advice like you’re some kind of fantasy know-it-all, but in the end you still thought Thomas Jones would be bad last year, that Tom Brady would be the Top RB, and, get ready for this one, you said you’d rather have Ronnie Brown than Chris Johnson… So why should I listen to you?”

Good question, Tim! I do have lots of opinions about lots of fantasy related things, but I’m certainly no fantasy-god. I did predict a lot of things that helped a lot of folks, don’t forget that. Anytime you put predictions and opinions out there for everybody to read, you definitely have an equal opportunity to look really bad as you do to look really good. Probably even more of the former than that of the latter. However, I’m still out here giving it a try. Lots of folks dig my style, my angry little oompa-loompa, so don’t pee on my parade. As always, you can go back and forth with me about my fantasy predictions, and I’ll enjoy it even more! You don’t have the chance to be wrong if you never give your prediction, right William? The difference between you and me is that I own up to the things I get wrong, and you own nothing to get wrong. My guess, you’re 100% right on your predictions this year, or 0% – however you want to look at it, eh? Last year was certainly a tough year for my predictions, but hey, we’ll give it another run again this year! Thanks for writing in! Keep it coming! Haha.

2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: D/ST

Alright, I’ve finished all the skill position lists for the season, and while you never know how happenings will change some rankings during the pre-season, I’m pretty confident about my RB Rankings, QB Rankings, WR Rankings, and TE Rankings. I’m not doing kickers, because I never do (just grab a kicker with a good offense that kicks in a dome, you’ll be alright) – but I am doing defense, my last Tiered Ranking Position left. Hope you enjoy!

Tier 1

1. New York Jets
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Philadelphia Eagles

This group isn’t that much better than tier 2, but these are defenses, what do you want from me? Don’t reach for defenses, just grab one at a nice spot and don’t hesitate to play match-ups if that D doesn’t work out. I like New York because how couldn’t you? They have elite players all over the field, especially in the secondary, and boast one of the best defensive minds in football as their head coach. Dallas has tons of talent, though their secondary lacks a little bit. Luckily they are monsters on the D-line, plug the run well, and put enough pressure on QBs to stir up some turnovers. I like them to be much improved this season on D. The Eagles are an interesting D. They allow points and yards, but they put up a lot of turnover points and defensive scores. If you get special teams, which I’m assuming you do, the Eagles always have the crazy speed to make big things happen.

Tier 2

4. Green Bay Packers
5. San Francisco 49ers
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
7. Cincinnati Bengals
8. Baltimore Ravens
9. Minnesota Vikings
10. New Orleans Saints

There are more questions here than that top group has. Green Bay has lots of talent all over the field, but they might struggle in the secondary a little early, and have always given up the deep ball. Still, there’s a lot to like about them as a Top 5 D. San Francisco has one of the best linebackers in the game, and one heck of a defensive line – though they struggle in the secondary as well. Still, they play hard and delete almost every run game. Pittsburgh had some tough stats last year, not normal Pitt stuff, but I think they turn it back around this year and impose some of that steel-curtain will. The Bengals are underrated, as they have elite corners, very talented young linebackers, and a run-stuffing defensive front. They don’t pressure the QB much, but they are playmakers. The Ravens are aging, and I’m interested to see how they fill out their secondary with Ed Reed down for the first half of the season (or so) and their lack of depth and health at corner. Still, they have great players on that team, Ray Lewis and Suggs to name two. Minnesota has some elite pass rushing, and decent linebackers, but this team can struggle in the secondary as well. The Saints got a ton of turnovers last year, but history says they won’t get as many breaks in 2010. Still, they really bring pressure and make things happen – good or bad.

Tier 3

11. San Diego Chargers
12. Chicago Bears
13. New England Patriots
14. New York Giants
15. Denver Broncos
16. Cleveland Browns
17. Houston Texans
18. Atlanta Falcons
19. Arizona Cardinals
20. Buffalo Bills
21. Miami Dolphins

Hopefully you’re staying away from these defenses, but you never know, they could impress or the Top 10 could falter/fall off the earth in some way. If that happens, I like San Diego as a team with a chance to do some solid work in 2010. They just didn’t make enough happen last year, and I think they are a little more aggressive, and a little healthier this time around. Chicago has some new talent and some guys getting healthy – sounds like a good combo, though with the new Peppers addition, they could be getting more hype than they deserve. The Patriots always find ways to be solid despite unknowns on their starting roster. The Giants were really hurt last year, and while I don’t know how they’ll piece together a linebacking unit this year, they still have a super talented defensive line, and some good guys in the secondary if they can stay healthy. Denver is interesting, I still don’t think they have enough pass rush to be a Top 10 group, and the coach that had them improve so much has moved on, but they sure were good at times last year. Cleveland has a better group than you’d think – but I’m not sure if they’re good enough to draft. Houston has a great front 7, but they may have lost their best player in a bad secondary, Dunta Robinson, so they’ll still struggle there. Atlanta picked up Dunta Robinson, and has some talent scattered sporadically, but one pass rusher and a couple decent corners doesn’t a Top 10 defense make. Arizona lost some key contributors, but they still play in the west and still have a stout defensive line with new young guys to help. They make a nice match-up option. Buffalo has a great young secondary, but not much of a pass rush or run-stuffing group. Miami gets the guy that helped improve Denver’s defense, but there are still a lot of questions on that roster – consider them a sleeper.

Tiered Fantasy Rankings for 2010: Tight Ends

I’m done with my tiered running back list, and the quarterback list is finished. Yesterday I busted out my tiered wide receiver rankings, and I’m close to done. Today I’m throwing tight ends out there for you guys, and get ready, because that first tier is large. What does that mean? Don’t reach for TEs, get good value for a solid guy and you’ll have a stacked team with a good TE.

Tier 1

1. Antonio Gates
2. Dallas Clark
3. Jermichael Finley
4. Vernon Davis
5. Tony Gonzalez
6. Brent Celek
7. Jason Witten
8. Owen Daniels
9. Chris Cooley
10. Kellen Winslow

My Top Tier is huge, and while I’d certainly rather have Antonio Gates than Kellen Winslow, but Winslow should be about 20-30 points better this year and while I expect a lot from Gates, Winslow is still going to get great numbers at the TE position. There are other tiered rankings out there separating Cooley, Daniels, and Winslow from Gates by 3 or 4 tiers. Don’t get it twisted, it’s not that far. Cooley gets a very good quarterback that has always loved finding the TE, especially in the red zone. He also is likely the guy with the best hands in Washington. I think Jason Witten, Owen Daniels and Chris Cooley are all better than they’re being drafted, while Jermichael Finley isn’t a good value pick, but I’d sure love to have him. You can grab the first guys later, and have a better team because of it. Don’t fall into the early TE zone, just wait it out, and get a real good player later.

Tier 2

11. Visanthe Shiancoe
12. Zach Miller
13. John Carlson
14. Heath Miller

These 2nd tier guys are still very good, and the only reason they fall out of the first category is either their limited upside (Heath Miller), quarterback questions (Shiancoe), and limited passing games (Miller and Carlson) – but in this group any single guy could get into that elite TE group. Visanthe Shiancoe already showed he could be huge with Favre feeding him missiles. John Carlson has a new offense to figure out, but Carol’s offenses have used the TE well, and Carlson is talented enough to do good things. Zach Miller is very good, so good that he is probably the best WR in Oakland. Jason Campbell has always liked using the TE, and while it is Oakland, it wouldn’t surprise me if Miller found his way into that top tier. Heath Miller might be even better than last year. With Santonio Holmes gone, he might get 10-15 more targets, and that could move him up to that top tier.

Tier 3

15. Dustin Keller
16. Greg Olsen
17. Kevin Boss
18. Jeremy Shockey

The 3rd tier is small as well, but these 4 guys have enough upside to be considered for tier two (but not enough potential to actually make that 2nd tier) and also have a higher basement, too high to be stuck in the 4th tier. Keller’s ability is greater than any guy on this list, but Dustin Keller is also on a very run-first team that has 3 pretty damn good receivers (Edwards, Holmes, Cotchery) – so his targets will be too low to be a top end TE. Greg Olsen was very solid last season, but Mike Martz never throws to TEs – can he ignore the biggest sure thing receiving threat in Chicago? Maybe. Kevin Boss had to block a lot last year, and while I wouldn’t want him as a starter, he’s still a nice red zone target and if the O-line in New York is better in 2010, he’ll get to run routes a lot more often. Jeremy Shockey is talented, but the balls get spread around in New Orleans and Mr. Shockey isn’t all that high on Brees’ list.

Tier 4

19. Jermaine Gresham
20. Ben Watson
21. Fred Davis
22. Rob Gronkowski
23. Brandon Petitgrew
24. Tony Scheffler
25. Todd Heap
26. Bo Scaife

I know rookie TE’s never do jack, but Jermaine Gresham is a special receiver and the Bengals have always wanted one. He’s a guy I would take a chance on as my TE 2. Ben Watson won’t be amazing, but the guy works his tail off and caught Champ Bailey from across the field in a 100 yard sprint. That’s enough for me. Fred Davis would be a great option of Chris Cooley wasn’t so good – but he’s still going to get looks. Rob Grankowski might be the #1 TE in New England, and while that’s not a spot to get huge numbers, it’s still a #2 TE risk to take. Brandon Petitgrew and Tony Scheffler play on the same team and they won’t be top options, but both are talented guys that are tough match-ups for opposing secondaries. Todd Heap will get hurt, but he’s still a talented WR. Bo Scaife used to be Vince Young’s favorite, but Vince grew up a little last year, and I think he throws a lot more balls to WRs in 2010.

Unless you’re in a very deep league, it costs you to make free agent moves, you’re required to have two TEs, or you can’t make moves at all in season- I wouldn’t take a #2 TE – just pick a WR or RB back-up and hope they impress, wait until the bye week of your TE and decide who to pick up then. You don’t need back-ups for every position. I promise.

2010 Fantasy Football Tiered Rankings: Wide Receivers

I’ve already completed my tiered running back list, and the quarterback list is finished as well (pending a Brett Favre decision – but it seems like everyone is waiting for that, but I have a feeling He’s NOT Retiring!!! But none of that matters for this one, well, besides the effect a retirement might have on the Vikings’ pass catchers. This is my Wide Receiver Tiered draft special, ranking out the Top 60 WRs in tiers. Again, use these tiers to help get the most value out of each position! Hope this helps!

Tier 1

1. Andre Johnson
2. Larry Fitzgerald

Yep. These are my two Top Tier guys. I expect them to go 1, 2 in the final fantasy rankings. Andre Johnson is just a beast and he’ll be big-brothering opposing corners all season long. Matt Schaub is a good quarterback that knows where his money maker is on the field. Larry Fitzgerald is supposed to take a hit with Warner out of the picture, but I expect totals as big as ever from some of the best hands in the league. Without Boldin there will be lots of coverage on Fitz, but he was getting double teamed anyway, he’ll still be great!

Tier 2

3. Reggie Wayne
4. Calvin Johnson
5. Randy Moss

Two of the guys on this list have great quarterbacks in great systems that highlight their immense talents. The other guys is just an absolute freak of nature and probably the best wide receiver prospect of all time. Reggie Wayne leads the list but his upside is lower than Calvin or Randy. His basement is a lot higher, though. Randy Moss is getting up there in age, but he’s still an elite ball catcher and Tom Brady loves to get his guy the ball. Injuries become more of a concern now, but it’s tough not to like what Randy brings to the table. Touchdown city! Calvin Johnson has the lowest basement, we’re talking Detroit low here, but his upside is as good as upside can get. His young QB had to improve over the off-season, and Stafford has a cannon. If Nate Burleson can pull some coverage, and I expect he will, Johnson could score 15 touchdowns in 2010.

Tier 3

6. Roddy White
7. Marques Colston
8. Sidney Rice
9. Miles Austin
10. Greg Jennings
11. Steve Smith (CAR)
12. Brandon Marshall
13. DeSean Jackson
14. Mike Sims-Walker

My 3rd tier is a big bunch – mostly in numbers (there’s 9 guys in my 3rd tier) but also in stature. Over half these guys are big tall physical receivers, Roddy, Colston, Rice, Jennings, Marshall, ans Sims-Walker – all of those guys are physical specimens and thus pose a nice target in red zone situations. Roddy should have a nice bounce back year after a little disappointment last time around (though he was still good). I expect Colston to stay healthy and get targeted more by Mr. Brees, making him a nice get in Tier 3. Sidney Rice’s success depends a lot on Brett Favre’s decision, so stay tuned, and risk what you need to if your draft takes place before Brett makes his final lean. I’m ranking him as if Brett is playing. Miles Austin was awesome last year as Dallas’s #1, and I expect him to be great again this season, but all the options in Dallas will pull from his stats, and I don’t think he’s an elite WR 1 because of it. He’s a nice WR 2 though, and a low end #1. Greg Jennings disappointed most of last season, catching fewer balls for fewer yards and fewer touchdowns than 2008. He’s also gone 12 TDs, 9 TDs, and 4 TDs in consecutive seasons. But he’s still a beast, and I expect him to get double digits in 2010. Steve Smith might have the most upside of this bunch because he’s one of the biggest touchdown threats in the league – but the question is his QB, and how many times he’ll get targeted. I still like him as a steal this season. Brandon Marshall isn’t rated as high on my list as others, because I know what the Dolphins are all about, but he’s an elite WR and should post solid numbers as a good #2 option. DeSean Jackson can’t possibly make as many big plays this year, can he? I expect he’ll slow down a little in fantasy points, but he could be huge again. Mike Sims-Walker fills out my third tier, and he’s the smallest name of the bunch. But don’t ignore him, he should be huge coming off a breakout campaign for the Jags.

Tier 4

15. Anquan Boldin
16. Steve Smith (NYG)
17. Hakeem Nicks
18. Wes Welker
19. Percy Harvin
20. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
21. Michael Crabtree

I’ve always loved Boldin, and I like his upside in Baltimore – he’s a number one receiver, despite claims that he’s not good enough to be the top target. I just have a problem with chances in Baltimore – why risk passing too much when you get 5 yards a tote out of your elite backfield? He’s a solid #2, though. Steve Smith really broke out last year, and despite a slow finish to the season, has shown the hands and solid routes for me to be sure he’s not a one year wonder. Hakeem Nicks is the only problem to Smith’s production possibilities, as I think he’s easily the best receiver in New York. Nicks will continue to score on a high percentage of throws his way. Wes Welker might have busted everything in his knee late last year, but if anybody worked hard enough to get healed up, it would be this guy. Wes looks the part as he’s already back on the field running routes. He’ll get lots of chances if he’s healthy, and I thin he’s worth a shot. Percy Harvin might be the highest upside guy in Tier 3, but he has Brett questions too. Still, he’s one of the fastest most explosive guys on the field every single Sunday, and I expect him to be even better in his second season. T.J. Houshmandzadeh didn’t do a whole lot last season, but that team was coached terribly. I think he’s a perfect receiver for Carrol’s offense, so I expect him to be a solid #2 with his consistent routes and elite hands. Crabtree was everyone’s favorite receiver last year, and when he finally signed he played pretty well. If the 49ers throw often, he could be awesome, but I think San Fran runs the ball a little more in 2010, though I still like Crabtree to be a Top 25 WR.

Tier 5

22. Chad Ochocinco
23. Hines Ward
24. Dwayne Bowe
25. Pierre Garcon
26. Jeremy Maclin
27. Donald Driver
28. Santana Moss
29. Terrell Owens
30. Mike Wallace
31. Johnny Knox
32. Malcom Floyd
33. Robert Meachem
34. Vincent Jackson

Tier 5 is full of interesting prospects. The guy that will likely have the most points per game played is last on the list, because honestly, I think Vincent Jackson holds out for at least half the season, something to be said about risking a draft pick on him, but then again, it might just pay off. Chad Johnson is #1 on my list, because yeah, I can only see this TO thing working wonders for Chad. As he stays focussed to try and keep up with Owens, I think his stats improve from last season – I’m one of the only ones that think Owens signing in Cinci is good for Ocho. Hines Ward stays #1 in Pittsburgh as Holmes moves AFC teams. Ward should continue to be solid, though not spectacular. Dwayne Bowe has a big time upside, but still questions surround the Chiefs passing game. Bowe has had his best offseason by far, and he’s an awesome talent. Pierre Garcon is a beast, no doubt, but how will the balls fly out of Manning’s hand this season. Anthony Gonzalez will be back, and Austin Collie was good last year as well. Reggie Wayne is at the top of that list, and Dallas Clark might be #2. Garcon is #3 at best when is why he falls into the late 20s. Jeremy Maclin could be HUGE this year, and I like him as you know the Eagles will be throwing, and Kolb likes to air it out. Donald Driver is a sure thing type guy, but I think #3 and #4 in Green Bay (because of their youth) should demand more looks and take balls away from Driver. Santana Moss could really pay off for an owner looking to take a chance. He’s a big play guy and McNabb loves to take chances down the field. TO doesn’t get much love, but he’s still an elite pass catcher. Yes, I’d like to see anybody produce like he did in Buffalo last season. Seriously, how many guys in the league go for 800 yards and 5 touchdowns in that offense? The problem is, I don’t know how much better Cinci’s pass game will be for sure. Could be great, could be what it was last year – we’ll see. Mike Wallace looks to be going for that #2 job, and he is a real burner with nice hands. He could really impress this season. Johnny Knox is another guy that wowed people his rookie season, and it looks like he’ll be the #1 in a Mike Martz offense. Instant production. Malcom Floyd takes Jackson’s #1 spot in San Diego, and he’s more talented than people know. He could be a steal. Meachem is a beast, and if he gets more balls, he’ll be much better than 33rd overall at the WR spot.

Tier 6

34. Braylon Edwards
35. Dez Bryant
36. Roy Williams
37. Nate Burleson
38. Lee Evans
39. Steve Breaston
40. Eddie Royal
41. Joshua Cribbs
42. Santonio Holmes
43. Devin Hester
44. Golden Tate
45. Kenny Britt
46. Mohamed Massaquoi
47. Anthony Gonzalez
48. Derrick Mason

Tier 6 is big too, and maybe a little more separation from top to bottom than I usually like in my tiers – but I do think these guys are surer things than the Tier 7 guys, so I split them up like so. Some guy I like to possibly out perform their draft slots from this group… Braylon Edwards always has a shot, and Anthony Gonzalez could really impress if he wins #2 in Indy, or just continues what he started two years ago during his rookie season. Golden Tate is really talented with the ball in the air, so if Hasselbeck can still get it up there, he’ll get it. Breaston could be a nice steal if he wins #2 and Santonio could end up the #1 in New York, and he would be a steal this late. The guys I really like are Cribbs and Burleson. Cribbs is just going to be so involved in just about everything Cleveland does that he should be a nice consistent WR option, though he’ll rarely have big numbers unless you get some points for returns, or he’s a huge part of the game plan that week. Burleson is just a touchdown scoring machine, and when he gets single coverage because of CJ getting double covered, he might just score double digits in Detroit.

Tier 7

49. Dexter McCluster
50. Mike Williams (SEA)
51. Chaz Schilens
52. Devin Thomas
53. Jabar Gaffney
54. Devin Aromashodu
55. Jericho Cotchery
56. Julian Edelman
57. Mike Williams (TB)
58. Early Doucet
59. Lance Moore
60. James Jones
61. Jason Avant
62. Brian Hartline
63. Donnie Avery
64. Devon Bess
65. Brian Hartline
66. Jordy Nelson
67. Deion Branch
68. Brandon Tate
69. Ted Ginn Jr.
70. Laurent Robinson
71. Darrius Heyward-Bey
72. Brandon LaFell
73. Chris Chambers
74. Marion Manningham
75. Bernard Berrian
76. Austin Collie
77. Nate Washington
78. Jacoby Jones
79. Demaryius Thomas
80. Kevin Walter

Hey, what can I say? There’s a lot of guys in my 7th tier. A mix between ability, chances, and upside give me the small separation from top to bottom. Hope that helps for those deep leagues! Some guys I like as sleepers out of this list, Jacoby Jones, Laurent Robinson, James Jones, the Mike Williams’s, and Aromashadu – McCluster too.

2010 Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks

Here are my quarterback rankings for the 2010 season. I’ve tiered them so you can more accurately assess value during your drafts. I’ve ranked the lot of “probable starters” (who knows if these guys will for sure start for their respective teams – talking about you Delhomme, Edwards, and Bradford) from 1-32, and in tiers. Try to get good value on one of the first 3 tiers, but don’t hesitate to take some chances late. Just DON’T take two quarterbacks early. It’s almost impossible to recover from that rookie mistake.

Tier 1

1. Drew Brees
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Peyton Manning
4. Matt Schaub

The only curve ball in this group is subbing Matt Schaub for Tom Brady – and I’m not doing this just for wows, I seriously think Schaub is in the top tier while Brady has fallen out. The Patriots’ offensive line isn’t as good as it once was, and with Welker hurt, Moss slowing down, and no real rushing threat, Tom’s status as a top tier signal caller is gone. Schaub has lots of weapons and one of the best receivers in the game. I like him finishing as a Top Tier guy. Drew Brees is my number one, because he’s always going to throw, and he’s got so many touchdown breaking threats I just see no way that he finishes out of the Top 3. Aaron Rodgers has a couple things working for him: he has elite WR options in a deep corps in Green Bay, and a coach that seemingly loves to pass regardless of how well Ryan Grant is running. Peyton is Peyton Manning, a sure thing Top 5 guy that controls the game better than anyone, ever… That’s worth something.

Tier 2

5. Tom Brady
6. Philip Rivers
7. Tony Romo

My second tier is smaller than the first, but hey, I don’t make value, it just happens. Tom Brady, Philip, and Tony are all poised for very good years with minimal risk and a very high upside. Any one of these guys could finish in the Top 3. The guy with the most downside might be Philip Rivers. Ryan Matthews might help a struggling run game, but the problems might be O-line based, and he can’t help much there. He is also missing his top WR threat in Vincent Jackson, and that doesn’t look to be ending anytime soon. Tony Romo is a very good quarterback, and he’s proven that over the years. Felix Jones is a year older, and hopefully a year healthier. With Austin, Roy Williams, Witten, and the Dez Bryant, there’s no way Romo will struggle this season.

Tier 3

8. Kevin Kolb
9. Brett Favre
10. Jay Cutler
11. Donovan McNabb
12. Eli Manning

The OLD man (Brett Favre) gets into my 3rd tier. He’ll be ready for camp and he’s damn good. I think he’s even better now than he once was, with his ability to slow it down a little. I rank Kevin Kolb ahead of him, though. Kevin might have the most downside of anybody in this group – but the way Philly throws the ball, the speed he has at skill positions on that team, the accuracy, and  that gun-slinger attitude he played with last season make his upside extremely high – especially because you know Andy Reid and company will be throwing that ball 40 times a game. Jay Cutler is falling off the charts, but the guy still has a rocket arm and he’s now teamed up with Mike Martz in hopes of putting up crazy air miles in Chicago. We’ll see, but I like his chances as a Top 10 guy. Donovan McNabb is good, and it’s not like there are no weapons in Washington. Mike Shanahan has always been an offensive genius, and I’m sure he can find ways to use Devin Thomas, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, and that stable of aging running backs. Eli Manning started off really hot last season and faltered as the Giants tumbled down the standings. I like his WRs in New York, as both Steve Smith and Marion Manningham are solid while Hakeem Nicks could be truly special. A little rushing attack help could go a long way in helping Eli stay in the Top 12, but he doesn’t have near the upside of the first four guys in tier 3.

Tier 4

13. Carson Palmer
14. Ben Roethlisberger
15. Joe Flacco
16. Matt Leinart
17. Vince Young
18. Matt Ryan

I think Carson Palmer could be much better this year, and honestly, that’s kind of a theme for this group. Everybody except Big Ben (a guy that is a tool and has been slipping because of his suspension for being such a donkey, but he’s still good at football) should be much better than last year. Palmer not only gets TO to help out in Cincy, but a young TE by the name of Jermaine Gresham should give Carson the TE he’s always needed. Joe Flacco has Anquan Boldin to throw to these days, and while the Ravens are a run-first team, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Flacco spend a good portion of the year in the Top 12. Matt Leinart is my wild card in this group, as nobody really knows how the former star USC signal caller will fair in Arizona. The Cards will run the ball a lot more this year, so don’t expect high yardage numbers on a weekly basis, but Matt still has one of the best receiving threats in the game out wide, and his accurate and catchable ball could work out just fine in the desert. Vince Young is back folks, and he’s better than ever. It’s still a run first team, but the Titans have given Vince some freedom in the passing game, and he took advantage of it late last year. I expect him to have a very productive season, especially in leagues where rushing TDs are worth more than passing scores. He’ll score 4 or 5 on the ground this year, and that’s a nice boost. Matt Ryan has slipped a bit after everyone expected the world from him in his second season. But he still has great receiving options in Gonzo and Roddy White. He could be a late steal.

Tier 5

19. Matt Hasselbeck
20. Chad Henne
21. David Garrard
22. Matthew Stafford

I like Matt Hasselbeck. I always have, and maybe it’s a weakness – but I think he can run that USC offense perfectly. He’s an accurate guy, and I think a change from that old Hawk offense will be good for him. If Mike Williams comes in and does what everyone thought he’d do when he was drafted, the Hawks could have a nice receiver trio. Chad Henne has Brandon Marshall to throw to, and that instantly upgrades his stock. And while I expect some big plays in this Dolphin passing game, it’s still a run-first team – so don’t expect the world. David Garrard has a solid rushing attack, an improving offensive line, and a big strong fast receiver – he’s not going to be a Top 10 guy, that upside is out the window, but he could be a serviceable QB2. Matthew Stafford might have the most upside of this group. He has weapons to use in Detroit – Calvin Johnson is one of the true talents in the game, and Nate Burleson is a very impressive #2. They have 2 good pass catching TEs and Jahvid Best to make things happen at RB. Plus, Stafford has a cannon.

Tier 6

23. Jason Campbell
24. Alex Smith
25. Mark Sanchez
26. Kyle Orton

I’m interested to see what the Raiders do with  Jason Campbell. I think they’ll let him turn it loose down the field, something he was never allowed to do last year. He’s good at that, and he has a big arm. Oak Town will be run-first, but they like the big play action pass. Alex Smith could be a steal late in drafts, or he could be garbage, it all depends on how the 49ers run their offense. If they keep spreading it out, Smith could have a huge year finding Vernon Davis and Crabtree down the field. He’s worth a late look if you’re desperate. Mark Sanchez has a lot of hype, and a lot of weapons in New York (enter Plaxico Burress pun here, poor Plax) – but the Jets are going to run, and I don’t know if Sanchez is ready to be a dependable fantasy QB, still, he has upside. Kyle Orton won’t be as good without Brandon Marshall – but that doesn’t mean he’s useless.

Tier 7

27. Matt Moore
28. Matt Cassel
29. Josh Freeman
30. Sam Bradford
31. Jake Delhomme
32. Trent Edwards

Matt Moore has Steve Smith, so he’s probably worth a late hail marry. Matt Cassel might be known more for his contract (huge) than his play for the Chiefs, but I wouldn’t completely forget about him. If I didn’t expect the Chiefs to run more than they throw, I would probably rank him a little higher. Josh Freeman is going to be good, I just don’t think I’d want to rely on that to happen this year. Sam Bradford, I think he can be special, but a rookie signal caller does not a fantasy championship make. Any list that doesn’t have Jake Delhomme last is probably wrong, but can you really put a Bills QB anywhere but dead last in the starting QB list? I couldn’t.

2010 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs

Every year I do my tiered fantasy rankings, or at least I have over the last couple seasons. I think tiers are a great way to go about drafting, because they show you value of what’s left on the board. If there are 5 receivers left from the same tier, and just one running back left in a tier, than that running back should have more draft value at that point. Of course, every league is different, and value will be determined on a league to league basis. But in standard leagues with PPR scoring, my Top 5 Tiers (Top 34 running backs) would look like this.

Tier 1

1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson

This firs tier is too good to be messed with. Anything can happen, it’s football and these guys are running backs – they get hit 20 times a game, at least. These two guys get hit even more than most, and that’s because they’re too good not to have the ball in their hands. I would take Chris Johnson over Adrian Peterson, if only because AP has the fumbles and might lose goal line touches because of it. Is it scary enough to ignore with one of the top 2 picks? No chance!

Tier 2

3. Ray Rice
4. Maurice Jones-Drew
5. Frank Gore
6. Michael Turner

This 2nd tier has 4 options for a nice consolation prize. Of these 4 backs, I’ve always been crazy about the touchdown potential that mighty mouse (MJD) brings to the  table. But this year, Ray Rice has passed him up. Ray does a lot, but his team is a lot better and that’s why I have him ranked higher than MJD. It’s going to be close, though, as Ray Rice has other back field options that are very solid guys – and MJD doesn’t have much behind him. Frank Gore should be in the mix as a Top 5 back, he’s got all the upside in the world, can catch the ball really well and runs with quickness and power. The 49ers did a lot to add offensive line help, and that should help. Michael Turner is dropping down draft boards, but I expect a return to 2008′s statistics, his first shot as a starting back. Turner has star power, and the key there is power. His legs are so strong, and that offense will go back to him early and often. There’s news that he’ll be relied upon less this year, but I don’t buy it – they’ll give the guy the ball just plenty.

Tier 3

7. Rashard Mendenhall
8. Steven Jackson
9. Shonn Greene
10. DeAngelo Williams
11. Ryan Grant
12. Beanie Wells
13. Cedric Benson

I expect a lot from Mendenhall this season. I’ve always liked the kid, and he sure turned his slow start around in the middle of last season. He’s the main back in Pittsburgh, and I expect him to start out hot for the Steelers. He’s going to surprise a lot of people, just not me. Steven Jackson is being ranked as a Top 5 back in most situations, and it makes sense, the guy is so consistent with touches and yardage. However, his team just isn’t good enough for him to shine as a Top 5 guy. Shonn Greene is an interesting case – a lot of people are ranking him outside of the Top 10, but he’s just too much of a workhorse for me to ignore. I know LT is in town, but there will be plenty of attempts to go around in New York – they won’t be throwing the ball as much as their trio of WRs expect. DeAngelo Williams is a very good running back, and with young quarterbacks in Carolina, they’ll run the ball even more. At least they should. I’d probably rank Williams higher if I trusted John Fox. He’ll definitely get his touches, though. Ryan Grant might be the most underrated running back in fantasy, always getting plenty of yards and touchdowns despite Green Bay’s attempts to freeze him out of games in which he’s running with ease. He’ll continue to sneakily pile up numbers. Beanie Wells is the wild card here, but what upside the young Cardinal possesses. They will be running a lot more in Arizona, and that will mean a bunch of carries for Beanie. If you missed out on Wells last year, he’s got a chance to be really good. He’s big, bad, and fast. Cedric Benson might be the biggest sure thing of this group, but I’m not sure his upside is as great as the other guys. He’s a powerful back, no doubt, but with more receiving threats in Cincinnati, the Bengals might go back to throwing the ball more. That would mean less chances for Benson.

Tier 4

14. Ryan Matthews
15. LeSean McCoy
16. Matt Forte
17. Knowshon Moreno
18. Jamaal Charles
19. Joseph Addai
20. Pierre Thomas
21. Marion Barber
22. Jonathan Stewart
23. C.J. Spiller
24. Cadillac Williams

Oh, the top 2 of this tier are scary to a lot of fantasy owners – but I believe in both. I don’t think the Chargers’ offensive line is as good as people thought it was last season, however, I still think Ryan Matthews will be the main man carrying the ball in San Diego, and that means something. Phillip likes to dump it down, and Ryan will get touches there too. I like LeSean McCoy a lot more than most. I must have him rated higher than anyone else, but he was solid last season in a part time role, and now he’s the main back in Philly without Donovan McNabb. Sounds like lots of points to me. Matt Forte was a unanimous Top 5 picks last season, often getting selected ahead of Chris Johnson – those days are over, but to those that forget about Matt on draft day, you’ll be sorry. He’ll have a very solid season in Chicago. Knowshon Moreno didn’t wow anybody last season either, but I suspect his second campaign will be very impressive. McD will trust him more, and that should mean a handful of big games for the former Georgia Bulldog. Jamaal Charles has special speed, and while Thomas Jones will scare some people off on draft day, the way Charles ran last season over the last 4 or 5 games means he won’t be ignored. He’ll be the feature back for a relatively punchless offense – because he can score anytime he touches the ball. Joseph Addai is old reliable. The Colts love to pass the ball, and Addai doesn’t break many big runs – but Manning calls his number a lot and that offense is so good he has to have scoring chances. Pierre Thomas is the best running back on quite possibly the best offense in football. He continues to outproduce the 10 million dollar Bush in New Orleans. Marion Barber is tumbling way too far on draft boards. A few years ago he was a part time back and still scored a ton of touchdowns. I don’t think he’ll take a complete back seat to Felix Jones, he’ll score plenty and pick up points elsewhere. I like him as an RB2. Jon Stewart would be a beast on a team that needed a #1 running back. He might be just as good as DeAngelo, we won’t know until he gets his chance to shine. Right now, he’s one of the best back-ups in the league. C.J. Spiller is a touchdown machine. ESPN has him scoring three times this season. I think that’s absurd. I know this is the pros, and he’s a rookie, on a terrible team – but he makes people miss in a special way, and that nose for the end zone is all I need to see. Caddy is one of my favorites in the league, and he’s the #1 guy for a very underrated offensive line. That Tampa Bay offense should be improved this year as they are a year older and have had one more season to gel. I expect Caddy to have a very good and surprising season.

Tier 5

25. Felix Jones
26. Justin Forsett
27. Brandon Jacobs
28. Ronnie Brown
29. Jerome Harrison
30. Jahvid Best
31. Darren McFadden
32. Clinton Portis
33. Fred Jackson
34. Michael Bush

Guys I can’t ignore that had success at parts last season: Forsett, Harrison, and Fred Jackson. Some guys that struggled last year but have had tons of success and might have a year or two left: Ronnie Brown, Brandon Jacobs, Clinton Portis. A stud rookie that might get all the chances to be a beast on the ground for Detroit, leave that to Jahvid Best – that kid was truly special at times for the Cal Bears. And of course there’s Darren McFadden and Michael Bush – I still believe both these guys could be very good starting running backs, and Jason Campbell should help open up room for them a little bit. Whichever one gets the job should be a solid back as Oakland’s offensive line is better, and I expect that team to be a little better as well. No JaMarcus is good.

That’s all I’ve got for my Top 5 Tiers – hope that helps come draft time!!!

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