Projecting Production: Fantasy Football Playoffs Preview

By Nate Kuhns

Projecting Production

Playoff Matchups

Even though were only going into Fantasy Week 8, it isn’t too early to start looking at your lineups relative to player-playoff matchups.  Standard playoff schedules consist of a three week period aligning with weeks (14, 15, 16) of the NFL schedule. *(Check your league settings and playoff schedule.  If Week 17 is included many other variables come into play).  Favorable matchups can often overcome talent, just as poor matchups can deflate talent. Knowing who has what matchup allows you to get ahead of the game. By Mid-season most managers have a pretty good idea of what their teams’ strengths and weakness are, and as a result you typically see managers acting more aggressively with lineup alterations. Whether its feverish waiver activity or trade spammers, managers are ready to make moves and looking ahead can help you make the right one.  The most important week isn’t “next week”, it is week 14-15-16.

Quarterback Playoff Projections

RANK	QB	OPP AVG.	PROJECTION RATE
1	K. Orton, QB, DEN	76	119
2	P. Manning, QB, IND	64	118
3	P. Rivers, QB, SD	48	98
4	A. Rogers, QB, GB	48	94
5	B. Roethlisberger, QB, PIT	40	91
6	M. Ryan, QB, ATL	52	89
7	M. Schaub, QB, HOU	51	87
8	D. Brees, QB, NO	41	83
9	T. Brady, QB, NE	33	70
10	E. Manning, QB, NYG	45	69

Typical Matchup breakdowns revolve around the strength of an opponent’s defense.  This can be misleading in many cases because of how Defenses are rated today.  The #1 pass/rush defense is determined by average number of yards allowed.  A perfect example of how this ranking becomes misleading lies with the New York Giants who currently rank #2 as the best pass defense in the NFL.  Seeing your fantasy WR is going against the so-called “#2 pass defense” can be a little intimidating and present itself as a “bad matchup”.  However if you begin to look inside the numbers you can see a different story. New York has given up 10 touchdowns through the air which is the same number of touchdowns allowed by the 31^st worst pass defense Washington Redskins.  Production isn’t only a function of yards allowed, looking beyond the traditional defensive rankings allows you to get a more accurate matchup breakdown.  The tabled projections take into account a more in depth breakdown of the defenses and how they should be ranked based on total production allowed.   Going beyond season totals up to this point, the following statistical breakdown opens up a dynamic inside the numbers evaluation of opponents and how it is relative to future production.   The ‘Projection Rate’ is a function of production each defense has allowed year to date, including; total pts allowed, average yards per play, total TD’s allowed, 20 yd+ plays, 40yd+, and other statistical categories relative to allowed production.  The given ‘Projection Rate’ is then weighed against the YTD production of each player forming a new playoff-projection ranking system.

Wide Receiver Playoff Projections

RANK	Player	OPP AVG.	PROJECTION RATE
1	Brandon Lloyd	89	195
2	Hakeem Nicks	62	185
3	Reggie Wayne	92	184
4	Anquan Boldin	81	182
5	Kenny Britt	80	179
6	Roddy White	43	175
7	Miles Austin	86	169
8	Santana Moss	79	165
9	Calvin Johnson	64	154
10	Steve Johnson	70	149
11	Terrell Owens	54	149
12	Andre Johnson	70	147
13	Brandon Marshall	66	146
14	Steve Smith (NY)	62	143
15	Greg Jennings	57	139

Target Targets, NFL Fantasy Week 6

 

 

 

When evaluating a player’s value the average fantasy owner looks strictly at production, more specifically the total amount of points scored.  This perspective certainly has validity, however it fails to take into account the peripheral numbers or what I like to call “Grey stats”.  “Grey Stats” include all statistical categories that have a strong correlation with a player’s production.  Many of these “Grey Stats” don’t directly affect your team’s point total, however knowing them certainly will.

One of my favorite “Grey stats” that gets very little notoriety is Targets.  A Target is simply when a Quarterback throws the ball to an eligible receiver, whether the ball is completed isn’t required.  The average production of a Wide Receiver has a direct correlation with how many times he is targeted.  The table below references the statistic TPC, which is Targets plus Completions.  Out of the top five highest TPC totals, four of them are the most prolific at their position.  The next interesting stat is TPC%, which looks at Target% (Targets/Attempts) + Completion% (Completions/Attempts).  TPC% shows how active the individual is in the offensive scheme, the more opportunities a talent is given the more likely he is going to produce.  Two stud WR that pop out on this chart when looking at TPC% are Brandon Marshall and Larry Fitzgerald.   Relative to total points scored, Marshall and Fitzgerald have under-preformed and are disappointments to many of their fantasy owners. However their relative TPC% is very high demonstrating that they are both very involved in their offensive scheme.  This analysis makes them both very good buy-low candidates with increased production to come.

Player	TPC	TPC%	PPR 1
Wayne, Reggie WR IND	95	43.98%	104.10
White, Roddy WR ATL	95	53.67%	101.30
Owens, Terrell WR CIN	92	47.42%	90.60
Lloyd, Brandon WR DEN	84	39.44%	106.90
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG	83	47.70%	109.90
Collie, Austin WR IND	82	37.96%	111.60
Amendola, Danny WR STL	82	40.39%	63.30
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI	81	51.59%	68.10
Gaffney, Jabar WR DEN	76	35.68%	69.70
Marshall, Brandon WR MIA	73	55.73%	67.00
Smith, Steve WR NYG	73	41.95%	64.00
Austin, Miles WR DAL	72	41.38%	90.40
Johnson, Calvin WR DET	72	34.62%	77.10
Moss, Santana WR WAS	72	42.35%	75.80
Ochocinco, Chad WR CIN	70	36.08%	63.60
Boldin, Anquan WR BAL	69	40.59%	82.30
Johnson, Andre WR HOU	66	40.24%	65.00
Colston, Marques WR NO	65	32.66%	53.70
Floyd, Malcom WR SD	61	33.33%	89.80
Crabtree, Michael WR SF	59	31.05%	50.40

*PPR1- Standard format with 1 point per reception

Fantasy Football Pick-ups: Know Your Bench

KNOW YOUR BENCH: Upside over Mediocrity

Top “SKY” Players

1. Ricky Williams, RB, Dolphins
2. Ryan Torain, RB, Redskins
3. Benjarvis Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots
4. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers
5. Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers
6. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets
7. Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets
8. Steve Slaton, RB, Texans
9. Javon Ringer, RB, Titans
10. Sidney Rice, WR, Vikings

I had a flashback today as I was having a discussion with a fellow fantasy fanatic regarding how fantasy football use to be. No in-depth analysis, no player projections, and certainly no NFL-Redzone. A scramble for the morning paper to get the sports section. First scanning the page for big point totals and then slowly browsing down the box-score hoping to discover your player’s name followed by my favorite two letters TD. The title League Commissioner wasn’t merely a title, it came with a list of chores, requiring a B. A in mathematics, tediously adding each TD (+6), 100 yards (+3), and don’t forget the 50 yard bonus (+1). My how times have changed.

Mediocre “Dropable” Players

1. Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jaguars
2. Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys
3. Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals
4. Justin Forsett, RB, Seahawks
5. Kevin Walter, WR, Texans
6. Jericho Cotchery, WR, Jets
7. Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins
8. Cadillac Williams, RB, Bucs
9. Darren Sproles, RB, Chargers
10. Brandon Jackson, RB, Packers

The same tools that make the life of League Commissioner more efficient today can be used to be a smarter fantasy manager. Live scoring, match-up breakdowns, depth charts, etc. Don’t just hit the “total points” tab and search for who has produced. Find who has the potential to produce.

A player’s production is often directly correlated with his involvement in the offense. The more touches a running back gets, the more targets a WR/TE gets the more likely they are to add to your point total. Pretty simple concept, however in some cases, individual talent is over-glorified when a player’s productivity is more a result of the system rather than individual excellence. Identifying these systems can help you strike gold right when the bye weeks role around. (example: any RB in the Shanahan’ Broncos era)

The technique often referred to as “Hand-cuffing”-owning a high-valued player’s backup in case of injury- is great for insurance, however only maintains your team’s production. You want to find the diamond in the ruff that adds to your team’s production. In order to do so you must eliminate the mediocrity from your bench. Many leagues these days have ample roster space for the necessary back-up, however a mistake I see too often is managers owning similar tiered talents. Players who have the same eligibility and production ceiling. These are the players that you should eliminate and replace with “Sky players”, players who aren’t necessarily producing week to week yet have a huge upside. Whether; baring injury, suspension, or an evolving talent with increasing involvement in the offense. There are a handful of these talents emerging each week and the unfortunate saying “A play away” is a reality. One that could bode well if you’re ahead of the game.

Fantasy Football: Perception is Everything – Acheter bas, vendre haut

Recently I made the mistake of making a comparison of FFB to the stock market in a room full of financial advisers. As you can imagine I received several piercing WTF looks, and while it might be a stretch, the fundamental strategy remains the same. At the end of the day they can tell me how my analogy was way off based and how little I know about the market today, and I’ll continue to take their poorly invested money that rarely sees any returns in our annual fantasy football league.

Everyone knows that it is a “what have you done for me lately” league, however I am always amazed how people define “lately”. In a society where an overwhelming majority of the population is after immediate satisfaction, the fantasy world and its’ owners yearn the same instant results. If the immediate returns aren’t there owners jump ship. This is where a savvy vet comes in and throws out a life vest rescuing their drowning value, believing in a proven player’s resume and enjoying the pure satisfaction of being right come playoff time.

The same jerk reaction can be felt on the flip side when managers over-value early performances. There are always a handful of players that out kick their coverage, and fool their observers into believing that they too are a premier talent. These players are perfect bait and if you can identify them early you can get top dollar. In some cases you can position yourself to take advantage of a “best case scenario”, moving a player with high perceived value for a S.S.S. (Slow-starting-stud), a transaction that will take you one step closer to that coveted trophy.

Austin Collie, WR, Colts
Collie has flourished in the absence of Pierre Garcon, however Peyton can make practice players house hold names. Collie’s pace of 135/1795/20 has got a lot of people’s attention making him a great sell. If you drafted him late, thank the fantasy god’s for amazing production and move him while he’s still #1 on the WR board.

Michael Vick, QB, Eagles
I actually enjoy seeing the return of the Vick experience and believe he is a top 10 QB moving forward. With that said lets take a closer look. Currently Vick is ranked #1 at the QB position in several fantasy scoring formats racking up 920 total yards from scrimmage and 7 total TD’s, production that makes any fantasy manager salivate. His numbers however have come against two of the NFL’s weakest defenses and although I think he will remain productive his value is at an all-time high. If you are a Vick owner there is a pretty good chance you drafted Kolb and may have to ride the Vick-train out, however if you are a waiver shark and netted Vick as a second option use this opportunity to address a need.

Arian Foster, RB, Texans
I lucked out being an Arian owner and owe most of the credit to my Cousin who hyped him from his exposure of being a G.A at University of Tennessee. While I think Arian will continue to produce and may very well finish up as a top 10 running back, I see opportunity in moving him for top 5 talent, ie; Rice, Gore, Turner.

Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns
Don’t get me wrong I wouldn’t want to be any where near this guy’s tracks, but his value is all based on one very solid day. Gauge your league’s perception of this guy and again go after top 15 talent in the WR/RB position. After all, I want as few browns on my roster as possible.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles
The majority of my leagues are PPR and in the case of Maclin this hurts his overall value. His TD/Reception ratio is outrageous scoring over 36% of his chances a number that screams over-production and over-value. I want WR with a high number in targets and ultimately receptions, Maclin isn’t your guy.

Shonne Greene, RB, Jets
The perfect face for an over-valued draft day bust, Greene got off to the worst start possible. His invisible stat line along with the investment of a top 20 pick has left many owners frustrated and embarrassed, a perfect combination of emotions to jump on. Although Greene’ s value isn’t any where close to what it was pre d-day he still has many productive days ahead of him and production that will come when you need it most, at the end of the season. As the season continues on the rejuvenated L.T. will slow and Greene will be there to pick up the pace. Get Greene now when his value is at an all-time low.

Ryan Matthews, RB, Chargers
Another often over-valued player on draft day has left many owners frustrated. A high ankle sprain has left owners in limbo and may have enough question marks to make a move. I still see tons of upside in this rookie and look for him to finish strong.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers
The pure lack of production is the main concern regarding this fallen soldier, his touches are down and his offense has shown little capability to move the ball. I think the Panthers will be a work in progress for the majority of the season, however as Clausen matures and Fox gets back to getting his studs touches I see Williams as a good buy low candidate.

Greg Jennings, WR, Packers
Best offense. Best Quarterback. Best WR. Best Deep Threat. With all that said production has been down and people are ready to give up on him. Jennings has found paydirt in 2/3 games, look for his reception number to climb and his production to return to top 10 form. Sale in isle Jennings, buy now.

Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers
The 49ers are a mystery in the lack of production department. Certainly not a lack of talent with the three headed monster Gore-Davis-Crabtree, I’d point to coaching. They did firing OC Jimmy Raye. Lower expectations a bit, however I see more prolific days in the 49ers offense and no one will benefit more than Crabtree.

By Nate Kuhns