Ask Papa Weimer: Week 8 NFL Fantasy Football Advice & Tips

Alright, it’s been a while since I posted the emails (and answers) being sent to me, but I’ve been dealing out fantasy advice left and right. This is certainly my most busy season to date, and thus I hesitate, but here’s my email address if you have your fantasy or just regular football questions on queue. PAPAWEIMER50@Hotmail.com – Hook me up with your best questions, comments, and observations, and if your stuff is relevant I’ll bust it out on my weekly “Ask Papa Weimer” section. If it doesn’t get into the article, I still answer everything as quick as possible. Keep reading, the fun has just begun!

Bryson just off Broadway asks, “Lucky, this is my first time writing in about anything fantasy, but I need a tight end pick-up because Dallas Clark’s wristies are no longer healthy, and the guy I picked up last week (John Carlson) didn’t do dick. How would you rank the following TEs? Ben Watson, Brent Celek, Heath Miller, Marcedez Lewis…”

I think Celek has a nice role on the Eagles still, he hasn’t been great, but he’s shown (last year) that he’s a very good tight end. The targets are there, he’s got 43 so far this season and I think that’s more than any of the other guys… (actually not true, Ben Watson has 46) – still I just never know about the passing attack in Cleveland, who’s going to be leading it, and so on, so that’s why I originally ranked Watson just after Celek. Watson is a specimen though, I’ll never forget him chasing down Champ Bailey in the playoffs from clear across the field – that was awesome, and with no real receiving threat there, I’m going to move him ahead – he might be the surest thing for those QBs. Lewis has been a touchdown machine thus far, but his targets are fewer, but he is a great red-zone target. Still, it’s hard to trust him. He has more yards and touchdowns than Celek, though, so he’s still in this group. All these guys are really pretty even.

Heath Miller catches touchdowns, and maybe he’ll be relied on by Big Ben a little more now with Santonio Holmes gone, but I think Ben likes Mike Wallace just fine. And He just wont’ get as many looks as Celek or Watson, and I don’t think he has Lewis’s upside.

D-Burgos from work wrote, “I lost 97 to 95.. I benched Palmer (like my guardian Angel suggested…lol) who gave me 26 pts in my league’s format and Kolb gave me 5.. DAMN!!…lol – Ok… Week 8… I need a Flex, and I hear Reggie Bush is coming back, but how would you rank him amongst these guys? Bush / Chris Ivory / Beanie Wells / Michael Bush / Jonathan Stewart /Anthony Gonzalez or a Hot Lee Evans? Thanks Guardian Angel… lol”

Hey, can’t win them all…. I did say that I liked Palmer’s match-up a little more, but that he was a “risky” fantasy option. How was I to know that Kevin Kolb would come out looking like he did? The NFL, not always the most predictable of leagues. That probably goes well with the fact that Lucky was 5-9 with his NFL Picks this week… Ha. Like I said, can’t win them all!

Reggie Bush is a decent option, but I think I’d rank Beanie Wells ahead of him. Then Reggie. Then Michael Bush. Then Lee Evans. Then Jon Stewart. Then Anthony Gonzalez. I don’t think Chris Ivory will be worth owning past this week. With Reggie coming back, Ladel Betts still in the mix, and Pierre Thomas well on his way to recover, Ivory isn’t a guy that will have any value when you get done blinking. I rank Beanie #1 because I think he’s the only guy that could conceivably get 20 touches a game for the rest of the season. Reggie Bush has upside in terms of catches and big plays, but I think the consistency from Beanie will only go up from here. I still think he will be the focal point of that offense for a good portion of the season.

Sorry for the hairy advice last week, but at least my track record is still pretty good.  -Guardian Angel

Ben Wallace of West Texas writes, “I’m in a couple survivor leagues down here in the country of Texas and because I’ve stayed away from picking home-country teams, I’m in the final 2 and 3 of both situations. There’s some Texas-sized money on the line, and you’ve been helpful with your picks thus far. I can’t pick New Orleans, Indianapolis, Seattle, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or New England – Who would you go with this week?

Nice thinking, Ben – I like the clever thought process. If you’re ever in a homer fantasy league or survivor pool, or anything of the sort, you always do better eliminating those teams from your selection committee – that way, when those teams lose games they were favored to win, you get rid of a big chunk. I’m willing to bet you lost half your participants in Week 2 (Dallas’s loss at home to the Bears) and when you probably luckily steered clear of New Orleans’ losses to Arizona (Week 5) and Cleveland (Week 7). Good work. I’m always thinking survivor, it’s one of my favorite games, and like you I’m still in 2 (I lost one when I picked the 49ers in Week 1, stupid rookie mistake, never take a road team in Week 1 – or any week – if you can help it). That brings me to my top 5 for this week. You still have to make the decision, ultimately, so here’s how I’d rank them…

Kansas City at home against Buffalo: I think this is your best bet (despite the fact that I’m picking the Bills to cover a 9-point spread this weekend). You have a big time home field advantage on your side, as the Chiefs are always much better at home than they are on the road, and that’s evident throughout the team’s history. You have a strong rushing attack, maybe the best in the league, against one of the worst run defenses around. You have a Chiefs team that has learned how to win, where Buffalo, even playing at the top of their game, hasn’t collected a win all season. The odds are in your favor, too, the Chiefs are the biggest favorite Vegas has to offer this week. But they’re still the Chiefs – tough week – good luck!

Dallas Cowboys at home against Jacksonville: This might be scary because Dallas has also been good at losing (ala San Diego) despite better numbers than their opponents (on average, not last week). But I thin Jon Kitna’s presence will be good – the Defense will inevitably play harder without their offense at full health, and Kitna is still a solid QB option in the league. Jacksonville probably doesn’t have the ability to stop anything Dallas wants to do, and that’s why I think Felix Jones has his best day this season. Dallas will run more, and that’s good for them. Still, now you’re picking a home team, something you’ve done well to not do.

New York Jets at home against Green Bay: It’s tough, I think Green Bay could pull the upset here – but chances are the Jets beat the Packers up by running the ball, and you have to think New York is going to pull out a great game against the pass one of these weeks….

Washington on the road at Detroit: On the road picks are never a great thing to rely on, but it’s a tough week. The Redskins are better than the Lions, though I must admit, Detroit might be close to a toss up at home against the Skins. The only reason I would take Washington is because Matthew Stafford is coming back, and maybe, just maybe, he’s rusty. And if he starts out poorly, his confidence (and the team’s confidence as well) might struggle – because of how well the offense moved the ball under Shaun Hill. Tough one, hopefully you’re choosing from above.

Tennessee Titans on the road at San Diego: The Titans are playing tough, the Chargers are good at losing. I know it’s a dangerous pick, but shoot, this week is tough, what did you want me to do, pick the Rams at home? (they would have been option 6, gross)

Fantasy Focus: Week 8 Fantasy Football Analysis

Hey, every week you get something new, except for this, the family stays on top all the way into Week 7. This time, it was a brand new way to meet a top the rankings, as Papa and myself tied for top honors. Week 7 sees Tom Brady and company take a break, so I’m going to have to pick another couple receivers in my Top 5, and hopefully my running back 5-some plays better this week. Here goes nothing.

Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week…

1. Peyton Manning – He will do in the 49ers secondary, might be a close game, that would be even better.
2. Adrian Peterson – The Packers shut down AP last time out, I DOUBT that happens again. Not this time.
3. Drew Brees – I think the Falcons secondary is having bad dreams with Drew’s post-game suit haunting them…
4. Steve Slaton– He’s had the fumbles, but he’s still one of the most dynamic guys with the ball. Against Buffalo?
5. Chris Johnson– It was just a week away, the Titans needed a season, but I think Chris comes out beating Jags

Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week…

1. Kyle Orton – The Ravens might scare the Bronco rush game, but the passing game should flourish.
2. Steve Smith – The Carolina version will have a nice day before his team gets blown out.
3. Marshawn Lynch – I had him here last week, he’s here again seeing Houston in his cross hairs.
4. Steve Smith– The New York version will get his catches against Philly’s D.
5. Brandon Jacobs – I think BJ has his biggest day of the season and tortures Eagle defenders.

Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week…

1. Nate Burleson – People are still sleeping on Nate, he’s nasty, the Cowboys will stop the run leaving room to pass.
2. Eddie Royal – Call me nuts, but Baltimore’s secondary allows big plays to good routes.
3. Mike Bell – Bell looked like the best RB in NO last week, this year Sean goes with the hot gun.
4. Donnie Avery – The Rams suck, but this is their chance, and Detroit gives up lots of passing touch downs.
5. Beanie Wells – The guy we call Beanie should find wide open spaces against the Panthers run D, one of the worst.

Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week…

1. Julius Jones – don’t get confused and mistake Julius for his brother Thomas.
2. Thomas Jones – speaking of the brother, he’s a much better play than Julius, but still should struggle vs Miami.
3. Roy Williams – Roy might be the 3rd best receiver on his own team, he’s #3 option the passing game. Bench.
4. Matt Hasselbeck – I hope I’m wrong here, but if I were Matt I’d be really worried about the Cowboys D front.
5. LeSean McCoy – He gets the start, but it’s tough to think he’ll put dents in that Giants defensive front.

***Big Bye Week in Week 8: this week don’t play Ravens, Broncos, Lions, Jaguars, Seahawks, or Titans! Mind the Gap!!!

Week 8 Fantasy Rankings

Week 8 QBs

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester
Peyton Manning	Peyton Manning	Brett Favre	Peyton Manning
Drew Brees	Drew Brees	Peyton Manning	Drew Brees
David Garrard	Kurt Warner	Drew Brees	Matt Schaub
Kurt Warner	Brett Favre	Kyle Orton	Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers	Phillip Rivers	Phillip Rivers	David Garrard

Week 8 RBs

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester
Adrian Peterson	Adrian Peterson	Steven Jackson	Adrian Peterson
Maurice Jones Drew	Steve Slaton	Frank Gore	Steve Slaton
Kevin Smith	Jospeh Addai	Adrian Peterson	Chris Johnson
Frank Gore	Maurice Jones-Drew	Chris Johnson	Ray Rice
Steven Jackson	Chris Johnson	Maurice Jones-Drew	Steven Jackson

Week 8 WRs

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester
Larry Fitzgerald	Reggie Wayne	Marques Colston	Brandon Marshall
Reggie Wayne	Marques Colston	Reggie Wayne	Reggie Wayne
Marques Colston	Brandon Marshall	Roddy White	Marques Colston
Mike Sims-Walker	Larry Fitzgerald	Larry Fitzgerald	Miles Austin
DeSean Jackson	Vincent Jackson	Brandon Marshall	Mike Sims-Walker

Week 8 TEs

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester
Owen Daniels	Owen Daniels	Antonio Gates	Dallas Clark
Antonio Gates	Antonio Gates	Tony Gonzalez	Jeremy Shockey
Dallas Clark	Dallas Clark	Dallas Clark	Owen Daniels
Tony Gonzalez	Jason Witten	Owen Daniels	Jason Witten
Jason Witten	Jeremy Shockey	Jason Witten	Vinsanthe Shiancoe

Week 8 DSTs

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester
Chargers	Bears	Broncos	Cardinals
Cardinals	Cardinals	Lions	Cowboys
Broncos	Chargers	Giants	Bears
Ravens	Texans	Cardinals	Colts
Cowboys	Colts	Colts	Chargers

Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Football Advice Week 8

This is Papa Weimer, back again for some fantasy football question and answer action. I had a couple tough calls last week, even going so far as to advising a fantasy reader to sit Ricky Williams (80 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns) for Tashard Choice (0 carries, 1 catch for 23 yards) but man, guys, how am I supposed to predict something like Choice getting shut out on the ground and Ricky dicing up the Saints stellar run defense for the most touchdowns in one single game of his entire career??? Shoot, sometimes I miss, but I always take a shot. So, feel free to send your questions to papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I’ll be here to try and steer you away from carrots and ketchup, and get you closer to apples and cheese – yes, the latter is better than the former… Here’s this week’s early emails….

Brad from the internet writes in, “I have a trade question. I currently have a trade offer, I have Steve Slaton and I have been offered Matt Forte for him. Slaton has been doing pretty good for because the Texans have been using him as a receiver but his rushing has not been so good. I’m a Bears fan so I need some advise!! LOL. I really want to make this trade cuz I believe Forte will turn around or am I just being a fan?? Thanks for your help!”

Brad, I hope I can steer you in the right direction. Here goes nothing. I’d stick with Slaton, at least for now. I love Forte’s game, he’s tough, he’s got great feet, and when you give him enough chances to succeed he usually does. The problem with the Bears is that they just aren’t a team ready to give a running back good fantasy numbers. Jay Cutler has a great arm, and his style over his short career has meant a couple things. His teams will score fast. That’s good for offensive numbers, but not really great for running backs. The faster the score, the fewer plays it takes, the fewer chances your RB gets to get break one. He also doesn’t check down. He’s been known for locking onto receivers and throwing it regardless of coverage. Look at it, he seeming choses a play for a player, like in Madden 2009, and just goes there not matter what you do. This is a problem for a couple reasons. Interceptions and incompletions also cause for a shorter offensive series. Also, when you don’t check down, your RB with great hands and receiving skills rarely gets catches. Now, unless this changes, I think Matt continues to struggle. This is why I was warning you Bear fans about getting so happy with the addition of Cutler. Great arm, not always the decisions you need to win football games. Then you add in the schedule over the next 5 weeks. Forte’s value might even go down from here. This week is a great match=up, sure, the Browns come to town to give Forte plenty of chances to up his fantasy stock, but what about after that? 4 Top-10 Rush defenses go up against the Bears, the Cardinals (1), the 49ers (6), the Eagles (11) and the Vikings (10) – and the Vikings are probably much better than any one of those. That’s a tough 4 game stretch where you’ll be looking for a playoff spot. You compare that to Slaton playing just 2 Top 10 defenses for the rest of the season (Titans-10, Dolphins-4) and I think you see why i’d stick with Steve. I think Forte will have some solid numbers late, but after this week it doesn’t look so bright. Good luck in either way you decide.

William Bad-Ace from Beaver Falls, PA asks, “What is your best pick for survivor this week? I no longer have the Colts, not that they are a sure thing this week against San Fran anyway, I’m basically deciding between Chicago, San Diego, and Houston – any thoughts?”

Sure Billy, I got some advice for your Ace. I like the teams you listed, all could be a decent option. And yes, you’re right, Indy is far from a sure thing against a tough Niners squad. When’s the last time Indy played a physical football game anyway? Arizona in Week 3 or Miami in Week 2. That’s a long time ago. I’d steer clear from that game in survivor action. Of your choices, I’d rank San Diego #1, Chicago #2, and Houston #3. I think San Diego should slap Oakland around, but the Chargers are a little bit like the Eagles in that they rely heavily on the pass, and that can always come back to haunt you. Chicago plays Cleveland, but I’m not 100% here either, the Browns have a good offensive line and the Bears defensive front got blown out of the water by Cincinnati’s rushing attack last week, this could be more interesting than people expect. Houston should win, but Buffalo hangs around in a lot of football games, and that secondary can pick it with the best of them. If Houston runs, I like them to walk here, but they are no guarantee to keep it on the ground for too long. My favorite pick this week is actually one you didn’t even list. I like the Cardinals to absolutely slap the Panthers around like a JV team. Arizona beats up opposing rushing attacks and that’s all the Panthers can really do. I see a long game for Jake Delhomme, if he’s even the guy at QB in this game. The match-up favors Arizona so much that they are my biggest sure thing of Week 8. Hope that helps!

Ryan from Seattle asks, “Who do you start this week, Ryan Grant against Minnesota, Knowshon Moreno against Baltimore, or Donald Brown against San Francisco? Yeah, tough spot, appreciate any help you got. Non-PPR….”

Ryan, you are in a pickle. But I think the answer is Ryan Grant. The Packers got away from the run last time out, but there is, at the very least, some evidence that says Grant could do solid things against that ferocious Vikings defensive front. The Steelers gave their starting running back just 10 carries last week, but he plowed away for 69 yards in limited chances. Ryan got just 10 carries against the Vikes last time out, he went for 50 on those looks. The Packers have decided to keep Grant more involved, and it’s been a good thing, dominating the last two games where Grant carried 20+ times (24 in Detroit, 27 last week), and if they know what’s good for them, they’ll commit to him again this week. I don’t know if I see a touchdown, but 80 yards or so could be in the cards if the Pack has removed their offensive play calling from the pass-happy garbage can. Hope that helps, good luck!

Ten for Tuesday: Week 7 Fantasy Football Analysis

“JaMarcus Russell, thank you for making an appearance on my fantasy team this week. I thought I was being a good owner, finding the only quarterback on the waiver wire that was starting, and giving Week 7 my best shot despite some tough bye weeks for my squad. But when it comes right down to it, my team had a better chance if I had not picked you up at all. Your stay will be brief, in fact I’ll cut you right now. Be gone!” Red Red Ryan couldn’t find a stop gap, he found a grenade…. 

 Paul Simon may have diamonds on the soles of his shoes, but Adrian Peterson has William Gay’s pride on the soles of his shoes. If you haven’t seen it, and you like football at all, (or if you just like to see what happens when you mess with the bull) check this out! AP Gives William Gay the Horns! The kid truly is special, if the Vikings weren’t so worried about AP’s physical running style and the way it effects his health, he’d touch the ball 40 times a game. And that wouldn’t be enough…..

Chad Henne threw a dime to Ted Ginn Jr. that was going to go for about 35 yards, and put the Fins that much closer to a kill shot on the Saints this week. But wait, Ted Ginn Jr. decided to tap the ball up into the air instead of just catching it, then he fell down, the ball just happened to go right into Darren Sharper’s hands, and he did what he does, scoring a touchdown, getting the Saints back in it, and highlighting that one thing that Ted Ginn Jr. just can’t seem to figure out – catch the damn ball. I can see Henne losing some confidence in Ginn, and then, that elite speed and Henne’s big arm will see fewer and fewer long distance get-togethers. Oh Ted, stick-em man, stick-em….   

I have something to say about Vernon Davis, WOW! That guy is really, really talented. He took a shot near the goal line this Sunday that would put almost every single skill player right on their aces, but not Vernon, he kept his balance and walked into the end zone. Everybody, and probably rightfully so, labeled Mr. Davis a bum, err, a bust after his first couple seasons in the league, but I hope everyone realizes what Mike Singletary’s leadership has done to this kid’s game. He’s always had the ability, and he’s always worked hard, but he’s focused every snap on Sunday’s and he could be something special for a long time…..  

Speaking of amazing plays by a tight end, has anyone seen somebody hold onto a ball after a hit better than Kevin Boss? If you missed it, Boss grabbed a ball with his finger tips then got absolutely obliterated by the Cardinals’ safety. He flipped all the way around and landed in a fashion that should have jarred the ball loose. But he’s tough. As nails. And he held on. Ted Ginn Jr., TO, go ahead and take a note or two on Boss’s catch….. 

Can somebody please tell me how John Fox, or his offensive coordinator, at the very least, still has a job? Down 7-2 at half, the Panthers come out throwing the damn ball. Why? Well, despite running effectively throughout the first half, they wanted to go back to their strength, interceptions. The Panthers are a running team, even Fox will tell you that, but somehow they always end up relying on the pass. Last time I checked, 7-2 to start the 3rd doesn’t eliminate the run from the playbook….. 

Don’t look now, but the Packers might actually pull their heads out and start handing Ryan Grant the ball 20+ times a game. I know it was Cleveland, a runner’s dream, but 27 carries for the big guy turned into 147 yards, and the Packers’ second blowout of the season (both 20+ carry games for Grant). Even against St. Louis, they didn’t start pulling away until they started feeding Grant the rock in the 2nd half. Grant runs really hard, straight down hill, and he could open a lot of play action for Jennings and Driver if they commit, this game might allow them to realize what that means….  

I wonder if, when the Bears dropped Cedric Benson, they ever thought he’d come back in a couple years, go up against them, and basically beast them all day long. Hmmm. I wonder if they thought Benson would be the best player on the field after they signed Jay Cutler to a big contract 2 year extension earlier in the week. Hmmm. I’m going to go on ahead and guess no on both accounts. Ced went balls out on Sunday, turning Chicago into a sieved. He wanted the ball, and he got it, 37 times. Nasty…..  

Yes, you can go ahead and mark it down, Shonn Greene and Miles Austin are both for real. Now Miles is going to be the sure thing heading forward, he’s going to start, and I don’t care how much money Roy Williams Jr. is getting paid, Austin is going to be the #1 in Dallas, and you all saw what Tony Romo can do when he has a sure thing guy out wide. But Greene, he’s a guy that many people might see as a one-game fixer. Listen, the Jets are going to run the ball early and often from here on out. Thomas Jones is a good back, yes, but he can’t carry the ball 25-30 times a game and stay healthy, not even with those huge freaking arms – so Green will get touches, and he’ll continue to show his worth. He was a beast in college, and he’ll be a beast for the Jets….. 

Nobody can stop Vincent Jackson! It’s not like the Chiefs were a ferocious foe, but it needs to be said. This guy doesn’t get the kind of credit he deserves, but he’s in that Top 10 group of receivers. He has elite speed, elite size, good jumps, and his hands have turned into sure things. He does it all, truly, and Phillip Rivers will continue to aim his marshmallows in Vincent’s general direction. If you can, get him quick!!!

theRUNDOWN: Week 8