San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)
Phillip Rivers is so lacking for confidence that I don’t think he’ll ever get it back. It’s now been reported that which we already know, there will be new dudes running the Chargers next year. So now the 15 guys on the team that held out hope that they weren’t playing for a lame-duck coach know the truth. Dang. The Steelers are too good defensively not to feast on a Chargers attack that has done little to impress poop flies.
Very tough call here, but the Jaguars can’t run and the Jets can’t defend the run, so the Jets biggest defensive weakness doesn’t really hurt them. The guy that has been blowing the top off defenses over the last few weeks for the Jags, won’t be playing. Cecil Shorts is out, and now all pass attention can go toward Justin Blackmon who still isn’t ready to the guy. The Jets’ offense is horrendous, but they’ll find some running room against the Jags and win on the road.
I know this is the week the Colts stumble, but shouldn’t they still outlast the Titans? Tennessee doesn’t beat good teams, heck, they hardly even compete. I know Chris Johnson has run well but the Titans just don’t put drives together and they are hardly a threat for big passing plays. I’m only hoping that the Colts don’t need another comeback in this one or the cover will be tough to pull off.
The Niners actually do get out and go for the jugular against teams that can’t hang with them defensively. I just don’t see the Dolphins producing a lot of big plays against the 49ers, as rookie QB Ryan Tannehill will find it tough with his All Pro left tackle out and Aldon Smith and company with their ears pinned back. Look for a lopsided game in Northern California this Sunday.
This seems like a trap game, but the Titans just lost their offensive coordinator to the blame game (though I must say, taking your best offensive asset and making him run in a system that he is not suited for doesn’t make a whole lot of sense) and they aren’t very good in the first place. They don’t have a precision passer. Their run game has been better, but certainly there are still some question marks. And finally, their defense just flat out doesn’t help. I know the Texans have been beat up defensively, and they haven’t been as consistent offensively, but this is Tennessee.
Well this line says that Seattle is winning. I’ve figured out over the years that home teams get 3 points when the teams are about even. Well, nobody that isn’t in the know believes that the Hawks are the better team. So Vegas is begging YOU to take the Bears here. Seattle NEVER wins road games. The Bears just have to cover three little points. The game is early, 10am Seattle time. The Bears have Jay back. The Hawks are almost surely losing a couple corners for the last 4 games of the season. But I’m telling you, when Vegas is begging for a bet, the other side shines through. And I see what they’re up to here. The Hawks are built defensively to stop the Bears. The Bears capitalize big time on turnovers, as the almost have to win the TO battle to win games (which people often overlook). Well the Hawks are careful, and unless a bounce goes haywire, they aren’t going to be giving any free points to Chicago. When it all rests on Jay and his O-line, things get wild. I’ll take Seattle.
Vegas is asking me to take the Vikes here, too. But I’m going to fall for the trap. Green Bay just hasn’t been good. Not offensively, and not defensively. The Vikings aren’t solid either, but with a very strong running game, and a more consistent lean on AP lately, I see them beating up the Packers’ defensive front to the tune of a lot of yards. Hopefully that will keep me in this one.
What can I say except that I’ve always liked Chad Henne. I’ve been wishing and hoping for Chad to run away with his first chance, and that seems to be what he’s doing. With a little more umph in their passing attack the Jaguars running game can get going against a porous Titans D. I like the 4 points at home for the hapless Jags.
I’ve been losing Colts’ games for much of the year, but I see this game and believe the letdown from last week continues. The Bills are better than their record, and I think they find lots of room to run in Indy this week.
Despite being beat up defensively, and just flat out unconfident on the offensive side, the Ravens likely walk out of San Diego with a win. The Chargers defense has been solid this season, but Phillip Rivers has almost completely lost it. Some of this throws have absolutely no reason to be thrown. The running game that was expected from Mathews has never shown up and I just don’t think the Chargers have it in them to win a close game if it comes down to it. No way they blow out the Ravens.
These teams still have that “doormat” feel to them, despite improving a little bit this season. The Cardinals have seen their amazing start (there was even dudes running off at the mouth saying they were one of the best teams in football after their 3-0 start) turn into a 4-6 record. Defensively they can hang in there pretty well, but have still shown some holes in the secondary. I think Bradford is improving, and he’ll provide enough to sneak one out on the road.
A great Sunday Night Football game both to watch and to own fantasy players in. 7-4-2 last week with a couple close losses/pushes. Here are my picks for this week.
This should be an interesting game. It looks like Hasselbeck is holding on to the starting job for Tennessee, so that’s one old dude with a soft arm against one young cat with accuracy and a cannon. The only thing is, this game might end up relying on the ground attack that Tennessee doesn’t have. Still, I’ll put my money on Luck leading a ball control attack for the slight upset on the road.
Both these teams are very bad. At least Kansas City has a history of winning at home, a tough place for road teams to play. I don’t think Brady Quinn is the answer for the Chiefs, and they probably don’t think so either, but that means they’ll likely ride that rushing attack all day long and Jamaal Charles is one of the most dynamic players in the league. The Raiders make too many mistakes.
Sure, the Cowboys are everyone’s favorite team to hate on, but at 4-3 they just aren’t that bad. They might not be the Super Bowl team that Jerry Jones thought they were, and they aren’t very well coached (see loads of mistakes, lots of dumb penalties, and absolutely no understanding of the clock despite being run by a former NFL quarterback). But Tony Romo is good, and he seems to step up and remind people of that fact when just about everyone and their mother is having talk shows about how he’ll never win the big game and how he’s so overrated. Is he a dynamic leader? Nope, but he’s a good throwing QB and the Giants haven’t been tested by one in their 5 wins this year. That’s right, Griffin isn’t a dominant passer yet, though he’s very good all around (and they could have easily lost that game), then you got Alex Smith, Brandon Weeden, Cam Newton, and Josh Freeman (who might be the best thrower of that bunch). Tony Romo is much more accurate and accomplished than those 3, and I’m guessing the Giants end up showing those big holes in the secondary this week in Dallas.
What a great game. Both QBs should have their way with opposing secondaries. I like the points in this one, just because both QBs are so great about bringing their team back, and neither team is good about running out the clock or putting their opponent away. Also, the Saints need wins like you need winning picks. Go points!
A very good defense playing at home on Monday Night, a team that NEVER gets to play in the spotlight of a National TV audience. You bet, I’ll take all those 7 points and see what happens.
I can’t stand the Bills and I think the Titans will put some points on the board against them (maybe even a Chris Johnson sighting?) but Buffalo has to beat a bad Titans team in Buffalo, right? Matt Hasselbeck doesn’t test defenses deep and I know Buffalo’s secondary likes to take chances. One pick-six and the cover is on!
This seems like a game the Giants lose. Not fail to cover, but lose. You know, you’ve seen it before from the G-men: they come into the middle weeks flying high, class of the league, just coming off a big win, for sure going to run away with it – only the hit a wall, lose to some teams they shouldn’t, and fall back to earth before stunning people again late and getting into the playoffs. I’ve read that damned poem before, all the shifts in tone and connotation and precise diction up the ying-yang. I’m not falling for it, New York. Go RG3!!!
Too many points, sorry Vikes. Could Arizona come in and lay an egg behind John Skelton? You bet, he’s bad. But he does target Larry Fitz like it’s his job (and it is) so at least he has that. Also, the Vikings don’t really translate drives into touchdowns, so 7 gets big pretty fast. Both defenses will come to play knowing it’s their job’s to make the ship sail – has a close game feel for me.
Neither team can afford to lose but one team REALLY can’t afford to lose. Absolutely not. Because they are good, they are used to being good, and everybody knows that good teams can’t go losing a billion out of their first billion and one games. Drew Brees lights a fire this week and the Saints win a road game.
Kick-off is 1 pm ET on regional CBS stations.
NFL Football Picks odds had the Texans opening as a 1-point favorite, which was qui9ckly bet up to -13 before Houston settled as a 12-point favorite. The moneyline odds have the Texans as a -700 favorite and the Titans as a +5400 underdog. The total is at 45.
The head to head series has Tennessee pretty much dominating in recent seasons, going 10-4 SU in the last 14 games overall, and 5-2 SU in the last 7 meetings in Houston. The total has gone over in 9 of the last 12 meetings.
Tennessee is 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS, and Houston is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS, one of the three unbeaten teams heading into Week 4.
Pro Football Picks trends show that the total has gone over in 4 of Tennessee’s last 5 games. The Texans are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games overall, and 8-3 SU in their last 11 games at home. The total has gone under in 8 of Houston’s last 10 games at home.
This game starts at 1 pm ET and can be seen on local FOX stations.
NFL Odds have the Lions as 3.5-point, -175 moneyline favorites while the Titans are +155 favorites. The over/under total is at 47.
The Titans are 3-1 straight up and each team is 2-2 against the spread over the past four meetings. This is the first meeting since 2008, when the Titans won 47-10 and cashed as an 11-point road favorite. Going further back, Tennessee is 5-1 SU in the last 6 meetings, and the total has gone over in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Detroit lost 27-19 to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football last week. The Lions failed to cash as a 6.5-point underdog, while the score was under the total. The Titans were blown out 38-10 by the San Diego Chargers on Sunday, failing to cover the spread as a 6-point underdog.
Detroit is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Tennessee is 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS.
Pro Football Betting trends show that the total has gone over in 9 of Detroit’s last 11 games on the road, and in 5 of Detroit’s last 7 games overall
The total has gone under in 7 of Tennessee’s last 10 games overall, and in 4 of Tennessee’s last 6 games at home.
This matchup gets going at 4:25 pm ET with live coverage on CBS.
The Chargers opened as touchdown favorites in NFL Lines but bettors have knocked them down to 6-point faves. The Moneyline betting has them as -260 favorites and the Titans as +220 underdogs. The over/under betting number is 43.
Head to head, the Chargers have absolutely owned the Titans, going a perfect 7-0 straight up and against the spread in the past seven meetings. The teams last squared off on Oct. 31, 2012 when San Diego won 33-25 and cashed as a 6-point home favorite. The score was over the total of 45. The total has gone over in 4 of the past 6 meetings.
The Titans (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) were hammered 34-13 by Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in their season opener last Sunday and failed to cover as a 5-point home underdog. San Diego (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) beat an inept Oakland Raiders team 22-14 and easily covered as a 1-point road underdog.
Football Betting trends show that the total has gone under in 4 of Tennessee’s last 5 games on the road, and the Titans are 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road.
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games overall, and the total has gone under in 10 of San Diego’s last 12 games at home.
This game begins at 1 pm ET and can be seen live on local CBS stations.
NFL Betting Odds have the Patriots as 6-point favorites, but some sportsbooks have them up to -7. On the moneyline, New England is a -250 favorite and the Titans are a +210 favorite. The over/under is at 47.
New England was 13-3 SU and 9-6-1 ATS last season and lost 21-17 to the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. Tennessee went 9-7 SU and 6-9-1 ATS.
NFL Betting trends show that New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games overall, and is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road. The total has gone over in four of New England’s last five games on the road.
Meanwhile, the Titans are 4-2 SU in its last 6 games overall, and is 6-3 SU in their last 9 games at home.
New England has dominated the recent head-to-head series at 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. This is the first meeting between the teams since Oct. 18, 2009, when the Pats destroyed the Titans 59-0. New England easily covered the spread as a 9-point favorite and the score was over the total of 38.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (+1.5)
The Bills have been pretty bad, and the Dolphins have been pretty good. That being said, Matt Moore is questionable, the Dolphins line is beat up pretty bad, and the Bills have the talent to turn this thing around at some point – that’s how they were so good earlier in the year. Give me the Bills at home.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (+7.5)
The Titans are the better team and even if Hasselbeck is out, Jake Locker has shown me a lot more than I thought he would this early in his career. I think he would give the Titans a good chance to beat a lot of teams. Understanding that the Titans are better in every faucet, the Colts still don’t want to go winless. I will take them until they pull off an upset!
Washington Redskins (+7) @ New York Giants
Doesn’t this just seem like the kind of game the Giants lose? At home, coming off a huge comeback win, against a pretty mediocre-bad Redskins team? It sure looks like that to me. Lots of Eli looking sad and lonely in the future. That could be the old Eli (this new and improved kid is pretty dang legit) but this is still the Giants. And they should have lost last week. When a team should have lost, and won, and are big favorites the next week, they almost never cover the spread. Go Redskins!