New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles Free Pick Prediction Point Spread Odds Line Week 4 09/30/2012
Game time is 8:20 pm ET with nationwide coverage on NBC.
NFL Picks have seen the line for this game bounce between -1 and -2 in favor of the Eagles since Philadelphia opened as a 2-point favorites. Moneyline odds have the Eagles as a -135 favorite and the Giants a +115 underdog. The over/under total is at 47.
The recent head-to-head series has the Eagles at 7-3 SU and ATS in the past 10 meetings. The teams split their two meetings last season, each winning on the road.
The Giants beat the Carolina Panthers 36-7 on Thursday Night Football last week, covering the spread as a 2.5-point road underdog. Philadelphia was upset 27-6 by the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday, failing to cash as a 3-point road favorite.
New York is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS and has won two straight since dropping its season opener to the Dallas Cowboys. Philadelphia is 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS.
NFL Betting trends show that the Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road, and are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games overall. Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games overall, and the total has gone under in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games.
Kick-off is at 8:20 pm ET and the game will be broadcast nationally on NBC.
NFL Odds opened with the 49ers as a 7-point favorite and the line has dipped slightly to -6.5 at most sportsbooks. Moneyline odds have San Francisco as a -330 favorite and the Lions a +270 road underdog. The over/under total is at 47.
The 49ers have dominated the recent head-to-head series at 8-1 straight up and 5-2-2 against the number. The teams last met in a memorable matchup on Oct. 16 last season, when the 49ers beat the Lions 25-19, covering as a 5-point dog and ending Detroit’s unbeaten start to the season in Week 6.
That game is also known for a postgame confrontation between San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh and Lions’ coach Jim Schwartz, when the two had to be separated following a less-than-friendly postgame handshake.
Detroit (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) beat the St. Louis Rams 27-23 last Sunday but failed to cover as an 8-point home favorite, while San Francisco (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) beat the Green Bay Packers 30-22 and cashed as a 6-point underdog.
NFL Handicappers trends show that the total has gone over in 5 of Detroit’s last 6 games, and San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
This matchup starts at 8:20 pm ET and can be seen nationwide on NBC.
NFL Football Betting odds have the Broncos listed as 2-point favorites versus the Steelers, while the game’s total is sitting at 44.
This game marks the first time three-time NFL MVP quarterback Peyton Manning will play a regular season game with a team other than the Indianapolis Colts.
Pittsburgh was 12-4 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and Denver was 8-8 SU and 7-8-1 ATS.
The teams last met in the Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs last season, with the Broncos winning 29-23 and cashing as a 7-point home underdog. The score was over the total of 43. Denver is 5-2 SU in the last 7 meetings, and the total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Football Betting trends show that the total has gone under in 6 of Pittsburgh’s last 7 games overall. The Steelers are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games overall, and 13-6 SU in their last 19 games on the road.
The total has gone over in 4 of Denver’s last 5 games overall, and in 14 of Denver’s last 19 games at home.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Sunday Night Football Free Pick: This is how it should be. The Giants have pulled a few games out of their blue tailpipes and that’s why they are here. The Cowboys have squandered many an opportunity (just about every loss they’ve had all season long), and that is why they are here. The Cowboys’ defense hasn’t been able to stop anybody when it matters, but something tells me they’ll be a little big better in this one. Just call it a hunch, I guess, because there is absolutely not one single bit of evidence that I can find to suggest what I’m saying makes any kind of mathematical sense. I just expect good players to play better than they have been.
As for the offenses, both are in a weird spot. The Cowboys and Giants have both been able to put up good numbers, but consistency isn’t a strength of either team. We all know that Romo gets a little too much hate and love, which makes him the Titanic of NFL football. No, Titanic isn’t that bad GUYS and no Titanic isn’t even close to that good LADIES. Tony is better than his haters make him out to be, more clutch as well. But his lovers seem to forget a lot of his failures when making their claim to All-Pro status.
Eli Manning has been battered by me over the years, as I’ve always thought him to be WAY overrated – but right about now, I just think he’s real good. He’s had an amazing season and is the only reason this Giants team has a chance heading in to Week 17.
So who gets the nod? I like the Cowboys to pull this one out. I think Romo finally puts it together – but then again, maybe I’m a bigger fan of Titanic than you are…
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints Sunday Night Football Free Pick: The Lions without Suh don’t turn into a pile of mush, they still have Jenkins and Fairley – but listen, they were bad against the run in the first place, and despite decent numbers, they make a lot of mistakes in the secondary as well. The Saints will pick you apart with whatever you want to give them. I think this line is pretty fair, actually, and the Lions could pull it off, it’s just that Drew Brees is playing so well right now that it’s flat out hard to bet against him.
It’s not like New Orleans can come in and take a night off, either. They are just a game over the Falcons in the NFC South, and Atlanta hasn’t even played good football yet this season. Drew and company need to find some consistency in their rushing attack to be elite, and this game gives them a great chance to do so. Even with Suh, the Lions are in the bottom 3rd of the league in rushing defense. New Orleans might commit more to the run in this one, and the extra time of possession could help them put the Lions away.
It’s a Sunday Night game and everyone knows how jacked up the Lions get when everyone is watching them. They go stomping on fools when they get the chance. The Lions have lost 4 of their last 6 games after starting the season 5-0. Until they show me that they are actually a consistent football team, going against them on the road against a team like New Orleans makes too much sense.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Sunday Night Football Pick: Alright, I feel like I’m taking easy money here except for the fact that New York is never a gimmie to do anything. Yes, good or bad, the Giants are tough to predict. But giving just three points at home to a defense (full of studs) that gave up over 300 yards in a loss to Ari-freaking-zona last week? That sounds like free money to me.
If you want to get more excited about this, smile at the idea of Michael Vick getting replaced by Vince Young. Need more reasons to take the Giants? The Eagles’ best receiver is out as well, Mr. Jeremy Maclin will be sitting on Sunday if the reports are true. Their other kid missed last weeks’ game due to disciplinary reasons (that sound ridiculous, by the way), so now they’re going to battle with Jason Avant, Steve Smith, and a kid that is in contract and disciplinary disputes, DeSean Jackson.
Maybe this is what the Eagles need to be successful. I don’t know. I mean Vince Young is a talented kid that will put pressure on the Giants defense. Maybe the Eagles will take a page out of winning teams’ game plans and run the ball with some force? I don’t know – anything is possible when the Eagles hit the field – and same goes for the Giants for that matter. But odds are the Giants walk away with comfortable win on Sunday Night Football.
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons Sunday Night Football Pick: NFL Sunday Night Football on NBC has yet another great game, once against trumping anything Monday Night Football has to offer (though the Lions and Bears is looking like a lot of fun right now, maybe close to what NBC is putting out on Sunday). In this week’s showdown, the Falcons host the best team in football when Aaron Rodgers comes to town to battle the Falcons. The Packers are defending champs, they’re undefeated, they’ve looked like they’re on another level during the first 4 games of the season. The Falcons, who many expected to contend with the Packers in the NFC, haven’t been nearly as sharp. They are 2-0, but they truly are a couple plays away from being 0-4. They were down big to the Eagles and needed a Mike Vick injury to help their comeback in that game, and needed an off-side penalty and a last second missed field goal to beat the Seattle Seahawks last week. The Seahawks. Yep. Those Seahawks.
Still, the Falcons have tons of talent, and the type of players that could give Green Bay a lot of trouble. The Packers have given up a ton of passing yards (though some of that is because teams are always behind against Green Bay, and thus they aren’t trying to run out the clock by running the football). Matt Ryan will need to find Roddy White and Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez against the Packer defense. It should be a good one.
In the end, I think Aaron Rodgers is just too good and the Packers are the better team. Rodgers has a ton of weapons, and he’ll take whichever one you give him. It’s tough to bet against the Packers, even with a 5.5 point value pick like Atlanta is at home.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts Sunday Night Football Free Pick: If this line was 20, I’d have a hard time taking the Colts. I don’t know why, but not having Peyton Manning yelling off line calls has put the entire Colts team in a state of blah. It hasn’t looked good. Maybe they snap out of it, sure, but against a very tough Pittsburgh Steelers team that is coming off a shutout against a team just a little more challenged than Indianapolis, I think it’s hard to believe the Colts have a chance.
Defensively, the Steelers could just spend the majority of the day running the football and end up with a pretty good chance to hold the ball most of the day, score some touchdowns, and keep the Colts out of the end zone.
I know everyone had their ideas that Kerry Collins was going to come in and somehow keep the Cotls afloat while Peyton got neck rubs 7 times a day for 5 weeks, but I’m not so sure they Colts won’t come out of this Peyton coma with a handful of losses. This early part of the season really speaks a lot about Peyton and his ability – he sure changes the Colts team, doesn’t he?
The Steelers haven’t really gotten after it yet, playing tentative and not having that offensive risk factor that has made them so good in the past. But if they get up early in Indy, it could be a good day to own Steelers in fantasy.
I expect a 34-13 score – the Steelers are that much better than Indy sans Peyton.
San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts Sunday Night Football Pick: I know that receiver injuries have hurt the Colts, but they are still plenty good to be seen as a great value at home, favored by just a field goal, against a team that is 1-4 on the road and just 5-5 overall. I know that team is San Diego, and they have a very highly rated defense and an even higher rated offense, but they haven’t played Peyton Manning yet, and I have a feeling the Colts are going to play well and win on Sunday Night Football.
The Chargers come in winning 3 straight football games, rallying to beat Tennessee, Houston, and then just crushing Denver after the Broncos marched down the field and scored easily on their first drive. After that, it was all Philip Rivers and a big bad tailback named Michael Tolbert. Now Tolbert is a key to this game, something not many people every expected him to be in the NFL – but he could crush my bet with a big day pounding between the tackles against this relatively small Colts defensive front. If Tolbert gets to the century mark, it means the game stayed close, the Chargers held onto the ball longer than the Colts, and probably a Chargers win. But if Manning can get out to an early lead, I like the Colts to send the Chargers home a sub .500 football team.
I just think the Colts are a perfect match-up for beating the Chargers. San Diego thrives off the big play through the air and Indy rarely gives up a big play in the passing game. They keep offenses in front of them and make them put up points with consistency as opposed to the quick score. I think Manning has a night against the Chargers’ secondary while Rivers struggles with the Colts’ pass rush.
Sunday Night Football Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The Vikings don’t lose to the Packers, I mean, the Brett Favre doesn’t lose to the Packers. Brett is in some trouble these days, getting investigated and rocking his birthday suit in a text-message-picture on TMZ. He’s having a bad year and the Vikings are down right now – it couldn’t get much worse, eh Brett? Luckily, I don’t think it will. Like I said, Brett doesn’t have it in him to lose to his old team. He chose to come play for Minnesota just so he could play the Packers twice a year and hand the ball to Adrian Peterson all the while.
Well, he is going to get plenty of chances to hand the ball to AP and watch him torture that depleted line-backing crew in Green Bay. He’s also going to get the opportunity to catch the Packers’ secondary paying too much attention to the evil-man-crusher that is AP, and beat them deep with one of the greatest deep play receivers of all time, and Percy Harvin, one of the better 1 on 1 slot-coverage blasting youngsters in the league.
The Packers are hurting, in more ways than one. They are in a bind on both defense and offense with injured linebackers and a beat up secondary – plus they lost Jermichael Finley for the season, which really changes their offense.
There are plenty of reasons to go either way in this, but Brett’s not going to lose to the Packers – so I’ll take the Vikings on that alone.