Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Free Football Predictions

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Free Football Predictions: This is an interesting one. I don’t really like this line, either way, I don’t see a sure advantage working for me, and usually in that case I take the points, but since the Jets got completely embarrassed by the New England Patriots late last week, I just get this feeling they’ll come out imposing their will, their physical style of play, and that will be the teeter to the totter, the weight on the scale, just enough to give them the win and the cover.

The Jets claim the better offense, both on the ground and through the air – at least more efficiently through the air. On the ground, Miami hasn’t been nearly as good as people expected, which makes sense, because they lost a lot on the offensive line. Chad Henne has struggled a bit with more of the offense relying on his arm. But last time these two teams played, Henne had a big game through the air to keep the Dolphins in it. It looks like Brandon Marshall might play, and against the Jets was his best week in a Dolphins uniform – he could be poised for a big day if he returns.

I just find the Jets to be more consistent. And coming off an anomaly game, it’s a good time to bet them to get back to the norm. A couple Dolphins mistakes could put this one away early.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-5)

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills Free Football Predictions

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills Free Football Predictions: The Browns are the huge public favorite in this one, taking 63% of the bets at one “betting statistics” spot I look and over 80% of the bets at another. What’s to like about the Browns? Well, despite their 5-7 record, they can run the crap out of the ball. Peyton Hillis is carrying bettors to the books in this one, as they see a great mismatch for one of the worst run-defense teams in the league.

But I see another mismatch, and that’s the Browns shaky defense going up against an explosive Buffalo offense that was held pretty well in check last week against the Vikings. Too many mistakes killed Buffalo last week, and I just don’t see them playing like poo for two weeks in a row. Remember, they have played very good football for about 6 straight weeks before getting trounced by the Tarvaris Jackson-led Vikings. They’ll get back on the saddle in this one.

The Biggest thing is that Cleveland’s defense has made some mediocre to bad offenses look pretty good, and I think Buffalo’s offense is underrated. With Fred Jackson doing work and Steve Johnson and Lee Evans trying to break big plays, I thin Ryan Fitzpatrick has a good chance to put up big numbers in this one.

But I’m mainly betting on the Bills because there is no way Jake Delhomme doesn’t have an interception fest in this game. Talk about playing poker with Houdini (I suspect he had some good card tricks, but I’m not positive), Jake threw the ball 34 times against the Dolphins and didn’t get intercepted one time. If Eric Mangini actually wanted to keep his job, he’d limit Jake to less than 20 pass attempts per game – but sine he was 0-32 (in interception chances) last week, he’s definitely throwing multiple balls to Buffalo’s defensive backs this week. Take Buffalo at home.

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills (-1)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins Pick & Preview

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins Pick & Preview: This one has the feeling of a trap – and to think about, a lot of games seem tricky this week – that’s not usually a good feeling, but that’s something I don’t think you should think about – you should never go against a team because it feels too right (ahem, Colts -3 at Tennessee on Thursday Night… Fail) – Anyway, the Bucs have been playing good football, even though they haven’t been winning at the same clip they did to start the season, they are playing good teams tough.

A couple weeks ago the Ravens hosted the Bucs and Tampa fought back to make that a one score game, losing 17-10 as they played stout defense against Baltimore. Last week it was a 4-point loss to the Falcons. The Bucs are playing really well, and that’s probably why they keep making Bucco-Backers money, winning 5 of their last 6 against the spread.

Washington has been the opposite of Tampa Bay. Donovan McNabb has one multi-touchdown game all season long, The run game hasn’t been effective outside of garbage minutes, and the team recently (and finally) suspended their highest paid and best talent for the rest of the season for being such a jack-wagon. Maybe that helps this team, maybe – but injuries to Carlos Rodgers and LaRon Landry have really hurt a bad secondary, and this team is already playing for next season.

The Bucs hit a tough snag in the injury department last week as well, putting Aqib Talib and Jeff Faine on the IR and taking some shots on Mike Williams as well (who is questionable). They won’t be fully healthy, but then again, it’s Week 14 and nobody is, especially the Redskins. I’m taking the better team here, like most people.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) @ Washington Redskins

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings NFL Week 14 Free Picks

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings NFL Week 14 Free Picks: For a team that struggles with keeping their quarterback clean, the Minnesota Vikings should find their hands full when the Giants come to visit this Sunday. With just 4 rushers most of the time, the Giants put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks – and that should make things tough for whomever is playing quarterback for the Vikings, if it’s the old man, Brett Favre, or Tarvaris Jackson. Favre, as many know, has 18 interceptions this season, and Jackson threw three in one game last week. If anything, having a mobile guy back there gives the Vikings a better shot –but I don’t see that better shot meaning much in the end.

The Giants’ yearly slump is over as they got a lot of things corrected two weeks ago when they came back and beat the Jaguars in the 4th quarter. That carried over to last Sunday’s game (at my expense) against the Washington Redskins. The Giants dominated the Redskins so much that Splinter felt the need to suspend a guy that didn’t even play in the game. Awesome.

I’m always afraid of the Giants this time of year, but they seem to have their rushing attack figured out and their defense is playing good football. For a team that makes a lot of mistakes, like the Vikings, this is a match-up that should go the way of the Giants – even if they are playing on the road. I’ll take the Giants by a touchdown or two – hopefully they don’t dominate and win by just 2, like the dang Colts did on Thursday Night.

New York Giants (-2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings

Top 5 NFL Favorites: Arses Free Picks Week 14 2010

Top 5 NFL Free Picks: Week 14 NFL Predictions

Hey, after a garbage week i came right back to win some money! Did I make it all back? You bet – 1-3-1 + 4-1 = 5-4-1… And that makes me about even for week’s 13 and 14 combined, even up a little bit. I went 4-1 betting on favorites to cover the spread last week and I’m sticking with the formula till it fails me, even if the games were close… Papa thinks dogs win, I think opposite of him – sounds about right. Parlays still have a special place in the bottom of my hate. I’m up money going into Week 14, and I’d be at a much nicer spot if it weren’t for the parlay-devil cracking the whip on me earlier in the season. Here’s the lowdown.

Starting Account Total: $1000
At Risk This Week: $500 to Win $475
Money Left: $1194 with $500 of that on the line
Total W/L Last Week: (4-1)
Season W/L Record – Individual Games: (35-26-3)

Week 13 Picks Review

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (WIN)
New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals(Bet $100 to WIN $95) (Loss)
Green Bay Packers (-8.5) @ HOME VS. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (WIN)
St. Louis Rams (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals(Bet $100 to WIN $95) (WIN)
Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (WIN)

Get at me on TWITTER @AlaskanArse. Here’s a link to Week 1′s article if you need a little more explanation of the way I’m keeping track.

Here are Week 14′s picks and bets.

(All games this week are Bet $100 to WIN $95)

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Tennessee Titans
Is this some sick joke? I know the Colts have been bad, but their level of bad couldn’t hold a candle to the crap pile Tennessee has become. Their pathetic Randy Moss-Chris Johnson offense (who would have thought that combo wouldn’t have worked) has been good for ZERO offensive touchdowns over the last three weeks. Nice.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Dallas Cowboys
Mike Vick should get the best of the Cowboys defense. This will be a close game, I believe, but in the end a field goal is most likely covered.

New England Patriots (-3) @ Chicago Bears
The Bears play well at home, but the Patriots stomped the Jets and walked all over the Steelers in Pittsburgh – they’re killing teams with good records, and it’s pretty awesome to watch, even as an impartial non-Patriots fan. I’ll take Tom Terrific over Jay Gooey-Face Cutler.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Houston Texans
Lucky warned me about this one, but I don’t see it. Flacco has been a beast over the last handful of games (maybe not last time out, so much, but he’s been very good) and Ray Rice is looking better and better. I don’t see Houston putting up many points against the Ravens, and with the worst secondary in the league, I don’t think the Ravens will have too much trouble scoring.

Green Bay Packer (-6) @ Detroit Lions
Does anybody else see the Lions are without their top two quarterbacks? Anybody? Does anybody see that their running game is crippled with sore toes of Jahvid Best? Their defense? I don’t get it, spread should be double digits. I think I’m winning this one easily.