Michigan Wolverines vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction Pick Point Spread Odds Line Week 4 09/22/2012
The Michigan Wolverines and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish meet in Week 4 College Football action on Saturday at Notre Dame Stadium.
Game time is 7:30 pm ET on NBC.
NCAAF Picks opened with the Irish as a 6-point favorite but bets on the Wolverines have ND at -5.5 and -5 at some sportsbooks. Moneyline betting odds have Notre Dame as a -220 favorite and Michigan a +180 underdog. The over/under total is at 51.
Michigan was a 63-13 winner against the Massachusetts Minutemen, covering as a 45.5-point home favorite, while Notre Dame knocked off then-No. 10 Michigan State Spartans 20-3 on the road, cashing as a 5.5-point underdog.
Michigan (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) has won 2 straight games while Notre Dame (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) has opened the season with 3 straight wins.
Head to head, Michigan is 5-1 SU in the last 6 meetings. The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 meetings at Notre Dame.
College Football Betting trends show that Michigan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games overall. The total has gone under in 4 of the Spartans’ last 5 games on the road.
Notre Dame is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home. The total has gone under in 11 of Notre Dame’s last 14 games at home, and in 5 of its last 6 overall.
The Michigan Wolverines vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish free NCAAF betting prediction is available right now to all callers to Lester’s courtesy line by dialing 1-800-293-0127.
First and foremost, Michigan has a solid team. They might be the cream of the Big 10 crop, and they have plenty of top-notch talent – but we’re not talking SEC talent here. And when we’re talking SEC talent, we’re talking Alabama as the most talented and well coached team in the lot. There’s not doubt that Nick Saban knows what he’s talking about, and that shows year after year after year.
Offensively, Denard Robinson might be the most exciting player in college football. Shoot, I’m not going soft here, I flat out think he is the most exciting – but exciting doesn’t always translate to wins, especially when ‘Bama is more talented just about everywhere else. It will be interesting to see how Robinson handles the best and fastest defense he’ll face all season long. I think there will be some highlights, maybe even a close game early – but turnovers will be caused, and Alabama knows how to capitalize.
This one started out as an eleven-point spread in favor of the Crimson Tide, but that quickly moved toward two touchdowns (where it sits right now). Alabama always beats up on non-conference foes, and this battle against the number 8 team in the country (pre-season poll, whatever that means) is a great opportunity for them to prove their college football dominance once again. People have been saying that Michigan can come and play with nothing to lose – well that’s bogus. Just like Alabama, the Wolverines have a game to lose. Maybe Alabama has been playing with something to lose the last three seasons – well – they seem to do just fine when that something is on the line.
Look for a dominant Alabama offensive line to pave the way for Eddie Lacy, a very underrated back that played second fiddle in Alabama over the last few seasons. I expect him to run all over the Wolverines.
Michigan Wolverines @ Albama Crimson Tide (-14)
Michigan Wolverines VS Virginia Tech Hokies Sugar Bowl Free Pick: I’d probably be reaching too far if I said I was taking the Hokies because the Big 10 continues to prove it’s ineptitude amongst the big-wigs in college football and thus the Wolverines are probably not as good as people think. But then again, they are going against the ACC which isn’t much better. In fact, they are worse. So it’s not that, I’m taking the Hokies for reasons outside of conference strength – even though the Big 10 has lost all but one bowl game so far this year.
I’m taking the Hokies because I think their team speed (defensively) will have a great impact on slowing the Wolverines run-heavy attack. In the Big 10 I don’t think the Wolverines play many defenses like the one the Hokies will put on the field on Tuesday Night.
Michigan was just 2-2 on the road this season, while they were 8-0 at home. Denard Robinson was a statistical anomale once again this season, even though he didn’t produce quite like he did last year. He’ll be a tough one for the Hokies to stop, but I think they can do it.
Virginia Tech has a little bit more of a power rushing attack, one they’ll be able to lean on throughout the Sugar Bowl. Running back, David Wilson was the ACC’s player of the year, and a 1st Round talent going into 2012’s NFL Draft.
Nobody from Virginia Tech played well in their last game, so if you’re looking for momentum to carry on from their last game – the right pick would be Michigan. The Wolverines finished the season well. I just think Tech is the better team.
Michigan Wolverines VS Virginia Tech Hokies (+3)
Ohio State Buckeyes (+7.5) @ Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines have been very good lately, making me look silly week after week (kind of like Houston) but that doesn’t mean that I’ve giving in. I know that Vegas is begging me to take the Buckeyes when they give me that extra half point, but I just think averages play out here. The Buckeyes have certainly been up and down this season – I just think Saturday in Michigan will be an up-swing kind of day for the chestnuts. Hopefully I can stick it to Vegas with this one!
Georgia Bulldogs (-5.5) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia’s the better team even if they never really can meet expectations. Georgia Tech is pretty one-dimensional, as they always are, but I see the Bulldogs’ defense being able to slow the Yellow Jackets’ attack just enough to cover this spread.
Alabama Crimson Tide (-21) @ Auburn Tigers
Alabama has a lot to lose in this contest and Auburn can play one heck of a spoiler in one of the biggest rivalry games around – but is it possible? I really don’t think so. Auburn has played close in some games they probably shouldn’t have, even winning a couple of them, but the Tigers aren’t on the same level as the Tide, and I expect it to show early and often this weekend.
Florida State Seminoles (-1.5) @ Florida Gators
This used to be “The Game” when I was just getting into football. I saw a few wide rights and a wide left, a couple upsets, and some great games between two programs that were up and coming and dominating college football. The old ball coach was getting Rex Grossman to do good things, and the Seminoles had Peter Warrick making dirty cuts in the middle of the field. Those were the days. Neither program is on top right now, but both have the talent to make this one heck of a game. I just think Florida State has a more complete team, so they are the bet here.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (+3.5) @ Michigan Wolverines
This is tough because there are some aspects of the Cornhuskers that makes them just tough to believe in. Their quarterback, Martinez, can have very dynamic moments as a runner, and even complete a prayer pass every once in a while, but most of the time he plays like he’s not engaged – and QB is important in their system. He is terrible throwing the ball, his form is that of an athlete you put at QB on a high school team because you don’t have anybody that can throw. Seriously. That being said, I still find it more difficult to believe in the Wolverines (on both sides of the ball). The bet I’m making here allows me to be wrong about the Wolverines in a close game –they win by a field goal I win anyway.
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5)
The Buckeyes are unranked and nearly touchdown favorites over the infamous Penn State program. The Nittany Lions have been very stout defensively all year long, and it’s possible that this game is close. But I think the situation that be wears on the Nittany Lions even more this week than it did last – and the physical power of Ohio State should be able to get the Buckeyes out in front early in this one.
Washington Huskies (-2) @ Oregon State Beavers
I know that home field advantage and some other factors give the Beavers a chance here – but the Huskies should run all over the Beavers, and at some point the Huskies stellar early season passing attack will find its way back onto the field. Why not against the Beav?
Michigan Wolverines (-4) @ Iowa Hawkeyes
The Wolverines have been hurting me all season, mostly with their winning ways laughing in the face of my picks against them. And I wanted to take Iowa, I really did. They have a solid program and they usually get better as the season moves forward – but this is a team that just lost to Minnesota. Yes, that state, right there where nobody pays much attentions, has a really big super ball in their biggest city. People mostly hunt and fish there. It’s like Montana-Midwest… Anyway, bad football team. Not as bad as Iowa last week, however. The bottom line is that Michigan is the team that is getting better. They could slip now that I’m taking them – but they certainly look like the more talented and tougher team in Iowa this week.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (+14.5) @ Texas Longhorns
I think the Longhorns getting overrated often, and while Texas Tech sure is an enigma (beating Oklahoma then getting whooped by Iowa State) but they have the offensive talent to put some points on the board against a pretty decent Texas defense. Offensively, the Longhorns aren’t dynamic. They should be able to run against Tech, but I don’t think it will be enough to cover the 2+ touchdowns.
Stanford Cardinal (-21) @ Oregon State Beavers
Stanford should destroy Oregon State, even a week after an physically and emotionally crazy win against USC in three overtimes. The Beavers are the bottom of the barrel and Stanford is just too good to be taken lightly, even a week after a huge win.
Purdue Boilermakers (+14) @ Michigan Wolverines
I just really like Purdue here, I mean they play mistake free football and as good as Michigan can be, they’ll keep lesser talented teams in the game with their mental errors – that’s a fact. When you add to that little tidbit that Purdue has been playing decent football, you got yourself an upset in the making.
Wisconsin Badgers (-7) @ Ohio State Buckeyes
I know that the Buckeyes will have most of their cats back and they obviously are a talented football team with their entire season riding on upsetting the mighty Badgers – but hey, the Spartans took that glory last week, making the Buckeyes’ plans a little second fiddle(ish). The Badgers probably just come out and kill it for a few quarters and ride it out to victory.
Arizona Wildcats @ Washington Huskies (-4.5)
The Huskies are still good, despite their late struggles against Stanford. People forget that they were marching down the field offensively against the Cardinal, but it did get out of hand. Still, with suspensions on an already soft defense, the Wildcats might take a step back in Seattle.
Clemson Tigers (-3.5) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
People keep expecting the Tigers to drop a game, and I can see why. You look at them and you see the same thing you see from a lot of teams that put up points like it’s their job – defense just isn’t a part of the equation. I get why the Jackets aren’t that big of a dog in this one, I mean they run the ball right down your throat, hold onto the ball for long periods of time, and don’t do things to give their opponents extra opportunities. While that’s all fine and dandy, and maybe the smart play here is taking the Techies, I just can’t look past that mountain of offense coming at them when Clemson comes to town on Saturday. Taj Boyd is legit and there are just too many weapons there to team up on any one guy.
Here’s a fearsome foursome of NCAA College Football Picks for Week7. Not too many amazing match-ups this week, but a couple games that might surprise you. Good luck!
Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans (-1.5)
This one is pretty interesting because it was Michigan that ended up taking out Notre Dame near the beginning of the season (Week 2). It was Michigan State getting trounced by Notre Dame a couple weeks earlier – so one might think the Michigan, because of that common opponent, shouldn’t have a problem with Michigan State on Saturday. Well, unfortunately it doesn’t always work like that, or this whole pick-em game would be a lot easier! What Michigan State makes up for in not having Denard Robinson is a more balanced attack – a team that doesn’t make too many mistakes. I like them to end up on top in the battle of Michigan.
Baylor Bears @ Texas A&M Aggies (-9)
Robert Griffin III is for real, but he’s not quite as good as his 19 touchdowns – 1 interception insists. Texas A&M has had a pretty disappointing start while Baylor has played out of their mind. That being well understood, I still see the Aggies as the more talented team, and I think this is a good week to come out and show what kind of team they are. Things should even out this week.
Utah Utes (+7) @ Pittsburgh Panthers
The Utes are a better football team than their record, and Pittsburgh is just about who they seem to be. Basically, these two teams are pretty even and that being so I expect a close game. even with Utah’s starting quarterback out for the season. Pittsburgh’s main offensive cog, RB Ray Graham, is a little dinged and I expect him to be slowed. Just a low-scoring close contest on the docket for today. Take the points.
South Carolina Gamecocks (-3) @ Mississippi State Bulldogs
When it comes right down to it, South Carolina might not be as good without expelled quarterback, Stephen Garcia, but they are probably more consistent. Connor Shaw can throw the ball a bit, and he doesn’t create stupid at any given moment – which is a plus. I expect a good one, but South Carolina is the better team here.
San Diego State Aztecs @ Michigan Wolverines Week 4 Free Pick: The Aztecs are a really good football team, and they have to come in with a little extra motivation seeing their former coaching roaming the sideline for the home team Wolverines. Brady Hoke has been exactly what the doctor ordered for Michigan, and while I’m sure his former Aztecs are happy to see him move to a big-name college football program with the big pay-check that follows, there’s nothing better than beating your old coach that headed for greener pastures.
One thing that should help them stay close, and maybe even win on Saturday, is San Diego’s rushing attack. Led by sophomore stud Ronnie Hillman, the Aztecs can really run the football. The kid put up some huge numbers last week against an improved Washington State team, and Michigan’s defense is anything but impressive. If the Aztecs stick to their guns, they might just be able to run out of Michigan with a win.
What I think is interesting about this game is the distribution of bets loving the Wolverines. 63% of the public loves Michigan while the percentage of “experts” taking the home team is even higher. 10.5 points is going to be too much – I’m telling you.
Michigan can certainly run it and throw it behind dual threat Denard Robinson, but San Diego State can do a lot of things offensively as well. This is a team that knows how to win, knows how to play tough against tough teams on the road (see TCU 35-40 loss @TCU last season) so Michigan shouldn’t scare them off.
San Diego State Aztecs (+10.5) @ Michigan Wolverines
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Michigan Wolverines College Football Pick: I don’t think Michgan is great, but I like their head coach and I expect them to play well this season – better than the last few. I think Notre Dame is habitually overrated and I’m not the biggest fan of old red face, Brian Kelly. Michigan has better athletes and one of the most dynamic college football players in the country in Denard Robinson. He didn’t have a great game in Week 1, but you can bet hill have his shoelaces untied and ready to go against Notre Dame in the Big House.
I think the Fighting Irish have a better chance with Tommy Rees at quarterback, the kid just knows how to win, but I just flat out think the Wolverines are the better team. Brady Hoke has them playing sound football, taking what they get, and not taking too many chances.
I’m not writing off Notre Dame by any means – they played fast in Week 1, and while that didn’t translate, it eventually will. I just think Michigan gets them in Week 2.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Michigan Wolverines (+3.5)