San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)
Phillip Rivers is so lacking for confidence that I don’t think he’ll ever get it back. It’s now been reported that which we already know, there will be new dudes running the Chargers next year. So now the 15 guys on the team that held out hope that they weren’t playing for a lame-duck coach know the truth. Dang. The Steelers are too good defensively not to feast on a Chargers attack that has done little to impress poop flies.
Very tough call here, but the Jaguars can’t run and the Jets can’t defend the run, so the Jets biggest defensive weakness doesn’t really hurt them. The guy that has been blowing the top off defenses over the last few weeks for the Jags, won’t be playing. Cecil Shorts is out, and now all pass attention can go toward Justin Blackmon who still isn’t ready to the guy. The Jets’ offense is horrendous, but they’ll find some running room against the Jags and win on the road.
I know this is the week the Colts stumble, but shouldn’t they still outlast the Titans? Tennessee doesn’t beat good teams, heck, they hardly even compete. I know Chris Johnson has run well but the Titans just don’t put drives together and they are hardly a threat for big passing plays. I’m only hoping that the Colts don’t need another comeback in this one or the cover will be tough to pull off.
The Niners actually do get out and go for the jugular against teams that can’t hang with them defensively. I just don’t see the Dolphins producing a lot of big plays against the 49ers, as rookie QB Ryan Tannehill will find it tough with his All Pro left tackle out and Aldon Smith and company with their ears pinned back. Look for a lopsided game in Northern California this Sunday.
Another winner in Week 12, and here comes lucky number 13. Yes, my long time followers, obviously traveling with me for many years now, remember a certain undefeated week years ago. Shall we have a repeat? Chances are nil as I trusted Drew Brees and his Saints too much this Thursday, but 15 of 15 on the weekend games would be grand.
This is the week the Jaguars stop playing decent football, I’m almost sure of it. They’ve been battling for weeks now, and that’s just unlike them. I know that they no longer have a handicap at quarterback, and receivers are starting to get open, shoot, even their defense is playing alright – but that honeymoon period of “This new guy gives us a chance to win,” is basically over, thus reintroducing us to the real Jaguars. I’ll give the points and say the Jags fall down on the road.
The Patriots start falling back a little bit here, but do they play a tight one with a rookie QB in Miami? Nan. Tom Brady is NBA Jam “On fire” right now, peddling that pigskin like he needs to prove to just one more schmuck that there’s a difference between him and everyone else – he always wins. Gronk out? No big deal. Welker dinged up, no problem. Defense giving up points, that’s okay, he’ll throw missiles into tight spots and tell you about it. Patriots win by more than a touchdown, here.
Alright, I throw in the blue and white towel, I’ll stop betting on the Colts to show us who they really are. Apparently this “Play for Chuckstrong” thing isn’t going to slow down after all. The Lions are very beatable at home, as Indy should be able to keep big plays to a minimum. One of these teams is disciplined, one is not. I’ll take Indy.
I really like the Hawks, even got over Pete Carol’s raw-raw antics and thin he’s one hell of a motivator and coach. I even hope I’m wrong about this. What I see is a Hawks team that doesn’t do a very good job playing to dominate. They play not to lose for much of the game and then rely on a couple key plays to seal the victory. Well, sometimes that doesn’t work out despite being better than their opponent. I like the bet with Miami – getting three, at home, playing a west coast team that is just about as far on the road as it gets.
The Raiders aren’t good, but I’m willing to bet that Carson Palmer comes out and has a nice game against his former team, and despite being a high scoring game, keeps this one close enough to cover. All they need is big defensive play or a return on special teams and this one is a lock.
This is just the type of team that Pittsburgh needs to get a much needed win. I know there’s no Big Ben, and the Browns are playing better of late, but this Steeler D is playing like it’s up to them if they want to win. I think they play dang near perfect and get a big road win against the Browns.
7-4-2 last week with a couple close losses/pushes. Looking to add to that winning record this week!
I know this is a no-no because of the big number, but I’m not in the business of caring much about no-no’s and “guarantees” so I’ll just pick it how I see it. The heart of Jacksonville is out for a few weeks (at least – MJD), their QB is bad and he has a torn labrum in his pull shoulder, plus with everyone healthy and prospering the team is not one ounce of good. The Packers are still an elite offense, and defensively they might just play well this weekend. Ill take them Packers.
The only backing for this pick is that I think the Jets are going to win. They are back to running the ball with some umph, and their defense is playing a little bit better. Still, the Dolphins might have the better defense, and an offense that has been explosive at times this year. Still, I like the Jets to sneak one out at home.
There is no reason the Chargers should be favored on the road against anyone. They are bad offensively and defensively they give up a lot of big plays. That being said, can the Browns produce a lot of big plays with a dinged up Trent Richardson? I feel like Ryan Mathews might just shine in Cleveland and win one for the Chargers.
I’d stay away from the London game, it’s always weird. That being said, it’s hard to believe that St. Louis can score with the Patriots, even after a trip across the Atlantic. Sam Bradford might have a solid day, but the consistency just isn’t there with the Rams O. If I’m forced to go one way or another, it’s Tom Terrific and his Patriots, they’ve always been decent after the big trip.
This tilt starts at 4:05 pm ET on regional CBS affiliates.
The Cardinals opened as a 4.5-point favorite in Football Picks odds but were bet up to -6 favorites. The moneyline odds have the Cards as a -270 favorite and the Dolphins as a +230 underdog. The over/under total is at 40.
The recent head to head series shows that Miami is 5-2 SU in the last 7 meetings overall, and the total has gone over in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Miami lost 23-20 against the New York Jets on Sunday and failed to cover in that game as a 2.5-point home underdog. Arizona was a 27-6 winner against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday and cashed as a 3-point home underdog.
Miami is 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS. Arizona is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS and is one of three undefeated teams in the league.
NFL Handicapping trends show that the total has gone under in 7 of Miami’s last 9 games on the road, and in 13 of Miami’s last 18 games overall. Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home, and is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games overall, and the total has gone under in 4 of the Cardinals’ last 5 games overall.
Kick-off is 1 pm ET with live coverage on regional CBS stations.
NFL Picks have the Jets as a 3-point favorite and the over/under total at 40.
Head to head, Miami is 5-2 SU in the last 7 meetings overall with the Jets, but New York is 4-2 SU in the last 6 meetings in Miami.
The Jets lost 27-10 to the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday and failed to cover as a 4.5-point road underdog, while the score was under the total. Miami picked up its first win of the season with a 35-13 victory over the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. The Dolphins cashed as a 1.5-point home underdog, while the score was over the total.
Both New York and Miami are 1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS.
NFL Betting trends show that the total has gone over in 16 of the Jets last 21 games on the road, but has stayed under in 4 of the Jets last 6 games on the road.
Miami is 5-1 straight up in its last 6 games at home. The total has gone under in 13 of Miami’s last 17 games overall, and in 6 of Miami’s last 8 games at home.
This matchup will be broadcast live on local CBS stations at 1 pm ET.
There has been some major line movement on this game as NFL Betting Picks had the Dolphins opening as 3-point favorites, and that betting line has been completely reversed, as the Raiders are now a 3-point favorite.
The moneyline odds have Oakland as a -140 road favorite and Miami a +120 home dog. The over/under total is at 39.
The Dolphins have dominated the recent head-to-head series at 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the spread, and beat the Raiders 34-13 last season and cashed as a 3-point home favorite.
The Raiders looked bad in a 22-14 loss to AFC West rival San Diego Chargers in the second game of a Monday Night Football doubleheader, failing to cover as a 1-point home fave. Miami wad dumped 30-10 by the Houston Texans last Sunday and could not cash as a 13-point road underdog.
NFL Betting trends show that the total has gone over in 6 of Oakland’s last 8 games, and Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone under in 6 of Miami’s last 7 games at home, and in 13 of Miami’s last 16 games overall.
The game starts at 1 pm ET on CBS.
NFL Handicapping odds have been on the move in a major way over the past week, as the Texans are now 12-point favorites, and 13-point favorites at some sportsbooks, after opening as 6-point chalk.
On the moneyline, Houston is now a -700 favorite after opening as a -350 favorite, and Miami is a +550 underdog. The over/under total is at 43.
Miami was 6-10 SU and 9-7 ATS last season while Houston was 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS.
Houston has dominated the recent head to head series, going 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in the past six meetings. The teams met on Sept. 18 last season, when the Texans won 23-13 and covered as a 3-point road favorite. The score was under the total of 47.
Football Picks trends show that the total has gone under in 12 of Miami’s last 15 games overall, and in 6 of its last 8 games on the road. Miami improved in the second half of last season and was 6-3 straight up in its last 9 games.
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home and is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games overall. The total has gone under in 7 of Houston’s last 9 games at home.
Washington Redskins (+10) @ Philadelphia Eagles
This game means nothing to anybody except possibly some jobs here and there (which is something I guess). Still, in terms of standings and playoffs, both of these teams poo’d away their seasons a while back, and now they’re just trying to find ways to fix pieces for next year. I feel like the Redskins are a tougher team, and with nothing on the line, they get the nod – getting 10 points is icing.
New York Jets (+2) @ Miami Dolphins
The Jets need a lot to find the playoffs, but don’t they seem like the luckiest team of all time? Bengals could very well lose to the Ravens and Tennessee could lose to Houston, if the Texans send out their starters, and Oakland could lose to anybody. ANYBODY. So it’s possibly, though unlikely – plus, they have to beat the Dolphins. I think Miami will be hurt with the absence of Reggie Bush, who has been very productive for them since taking over as the full-time #1 running back. I’ll take the lucky Jets.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
The Saints are still playing for home field advantage and a first round bye. They can’t overcome the Packers for home field throughout, but with a 49ers loss and a Saints win, New Orleans will get next week off, and everyone knows, that’s a big deal. I think they let it all out on the Panthers, a team that knows very well how to shoot themselves in the cleat. The line is tough, but I think it gets covered.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (+1.5)
The Bills have been pretty bad, and the Dolphins have been pretty good. That being said, Matt Moore is questionable, the Dolphins line is beat up pretty bad, and the Bills have the talent to turn this thing around at some point – that’s how they were so good earlier in the year. Give me the Bills at home.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (+7.5)
The Titans are the better team and even if Hasselbeck is out, Jake Locker has shown me a lot more than I thought he would this early in his career. I think he would give the Titans a good chance to beat a lot of teams. Understanding that the Titans are better in every faucet, the Colts still don’t want to go winless. I will take them until they pull off an upset!
Washington Redskins (+7) @ New York Giants
Doesn’t this just seem like the kind of game the Giants lose? At home, coming off a huge comeback win, against a pretty mediocre-bad Redskins team? It sure looks like that to me. Lots of Eli looking sad and lonely in the future. That could be the old Eli (this new and improved kid is pretty dang legit) but this is still the Giants. And they should have lost last week. When a team should have lost, and won, and are big favorites the next week, they almost never cover the spread. Go Redskins!