Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions: Monday Night Free Football Pick: The Chicago Bears have been solid. The Lions have played out of their minds. Their are two 4-0 teams in the NFL right now, and they are in the same division. No, you’re right, one of them isn’t the Bears. The Bears are 2-2, but look a little more explosive offensively this season. Defensively, they’ve struggled a bit, but Matt Forte has been really good, and Cutler hasn’t made near as many mistakes to hurt the team. But they haven’t been the Lions. The Lions are tied with the Packers for the best record in the NFL, undefeated, through the first quarter of the season. Not many expected that kind of jump.
And honestly, it probably shouldn’t be that way. The Lions have been way down in each of their last wins – down 20-0 against the Minnesota Vikings and 27-3 in Dallas. 20 or more points in each of their last 2 games, and they’ve won both of them. That’s nuts. One reason is that they are one of the most explosive offenses in football. Matthew Stafford has been great, and he’s been healthy – which is huge. Jahvid Best has been a great pass catcher out of the backfield (even though the running game has struggled) and Calvin Johnson is off his rocker, catching 2 touchdown passes in each of his first 4 games. That’s nuts. Titus Young is stepping into a bigger role, and Brandon Petitgrew is as reliable as it gets over the middle. They do work in Detroit. Plus, teams can’t run the game out defensively. When other teams are up, they are still running it straight into Suh and company, and the Lions are better defensively than they’ve been in forever.
Still, I like the Bears. Those big points the Lions give up early will haunt them sooner or later – and I think it’s going to be sooner. You can’t be down 20 and win every game. I think this one will be close. The Bears do a good job of gutting you for big plays and using Forte to keep you honest. I’ll take the points.
Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 1 NFL Pick: I don’t know if I’m conducting the hype-train rolling through Detroit, but I can certainly understand why they have the attention of some people in the know. Defensively they’ve gotten better, if only because they are older and now have some solid talent at corner. They had a pretty good draft but that only looks good on paper because both their 1st and 2nd round picks won’t be playing come Sunday. Injuries are a real beach. Offensively they should be better as well with another year for what is basically an entire returning unit. Calvin Johnson is one of the best WRs in the game and Jahvid Best, while not a consistent runner, is bound to make some huge plays each week. Yes, there’s a lot to like.
But to make them an even bet on the road against an equally as young and impressive Tampa Bay team coming off a 10-win season? That seems a little ridiculous, now doesn’t it? Josh Freeman has proven to be all the Bucs could have dreamed of when they drafted him three years ago. Coming into his 2nd full season at the helm in Tampa, Freeman looks the part and has a confident glow about him – a natural leader. That could take these Bucs a long way.
I like both these young teams and anything can happen on Sunday, but every ounce of value rests with Tampa here. At home, even, and somehow the public is 60/40 in favor of the road team. The “experts” are 80% in favor of the Lions – it’s basically me and Herman Moore than believe in Detroit. That’s how I like it!
Back at it again. A week of emails have come in and I continue to answer them with my best foot forward – whatever the hell that means. I wish I could answer them with my best back forward – I’d trade a couple retirement checks for a best back right about now. Anyway, below are some answer to some email questions. Feel free to join in on the fun and question the king of the fantasy realm – me and Tolkien, right? Get to me at email@example.com – I’ll get back to you as prompt as possible.
DBM in one of the Dakotas asks, “How will Marshawn and Sydney Rice do in Seattle this year?”
I think the Seahawks will be much better offensively, and it all centers around the offensive line. James Carpenter is a good RT prospect that does everything pretty well, he’s not a liability in pass or run blocking, and is above average at both. Robert Gallery is a great addition as well, probably the best OG on the market. The Hawks had the worst offensive line in football last year, and now with rookies and 2nd year guys, plus a big FA addition, they’ll be better. I like that Tarvaris Jackson comes over as a leader, one of the most knowledgeable players on the team about the offense they’ll be running in Seattle (because, like him, it came from Minnesota). As a leader, and teacher, he’ll have much more confidence to what’s going on, and I think that will help him a ton – because remember, he was always the guy they dumbed down the offense for when he was in – that does nothing for your confidence. You ask little of someone, you get little in return. I don’t know where Rice is going in drafts, but as my #3 receiver I like his upside. He’ll lead the Hawks in receiving this year.
David in Minnesota writes, “I am in a keeper league and I can keep up to 4 players.If I keep 4 – I will lose my first 4 picks, if I keep 3 then I will lose my first 3 picks etc. Next bit of info I will be drafting 11th in each round. It is a snake draft without reversing. Here are the players I am trying to figure out who to keep and how many. What do you think? (Brady, MJD, Bradshaw, Best, Sid Rice, Stevie Johnson, Colston, Welker)
I would probably only keep 2, maybe 3 guys on your squad. The only reason I would keep 3 is because your pick is so late in Round 3 – but so early in Round 4, so you have to take a chance and hope you can get a better 4th player. Brady and MJD (unless you trade for Charles) are sure thing keepers, obviously. They are both Top 2 round players, and so you keep them. After that, I don’t see any given there. I think Best is your next best upside player, and while I ranked him as a 4th round guy prior to LeShoure’s season ending injury, he might be a nicer risk as a 3rd rounder now. I would consider Colston over Best, if you think the draft will be more RB heavy than WR heavy – they are both very close to me, but I’d go with Best without knowledge of other rosters. Welker, maybe, but he’s limited in non-ppr leagues, and I think he’s right around Colston’s grade, with not as much upside. Because you’re one of the highest 4th round picks, take a chance and see if you can’t upgrade at WR. Good luck!
David gets another questions off in a lengthy email… “Would you think of a trade for Jamaal Charles, giving up MJD and one of my receivers? A guy in our league has no receivers…”
It’s pretty well documented that I picked Charles as the #1 back in fantasy for the upcoming season. Since I don’t think you should keep any of your receivers, I’d say yeah, jump in and make that deal. Lucky says “no don’t do it, MJD is more consistent” but hey, he says it’s close, and my feeling has always been my feeling, and since this isn’t “Ask Lucky Lester” I’m pretty sure I’m gonna say what I want. Charles has the upside and the offensive line to be the best running back in fantasy. He’s lightning quick and doesn’t take big hits. MJD doesn’t have his upside, if you can get him and all it’s really gonna cost you is MJD (who I rank behind Charles, Peterson, C Johnson, Foster, and Ray Rice) then do it!
Because there are still additions and cuts going down, the list might change a little bit here and there, but don’t expect anything drastic – we’re feeling pretty good about our rankings. I posted my QB Tiers late last night, and will have WR Tiers, TEs, and Ds up by Tuesday.
If you don’t know about tiered rankings, read this, it might help. “How To Use Tiered Rankings”
The most important position on your team, Running Back!
RB Tier I
|Maurice Jones Drew|
|Roy Helu Jr.|
For the first time in all my years of doing this, there were 4 different #1 overall picks amongst the staff. Nobody made a good enough argument to keep Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, or Arian Foster out of our top overall tier, but we did thwart Papa Weimer’s efforts to get Jamaal Charles’s name in the top tier. With CJ, AP, and Foster topping 3 different lists, as well as going in the Top 3 (or Papa’s case, 4) in each of our individual rankings, the top tier was easy. Nate liked Chris Johnson, Red and Arse liked AP, and with Houston headed more towards running the ball, I went with Foster. Nate’s argument was the best, so we agreed to put CJ atop the list. His upside, no doubt, is incredible.
Maurice Jones-Drew heads Tier 2, but this is a close race. I could easily see Frank Gore staying healthy and ending up ahead of anybody on this list, but when we factor in health risk, the offense they play in, our projections for their respective teams and their importance to their offense, MJD is the best back you can get outside of the top tier. Charles might have the most upside, and my personal favorite is Ray Rice (especially now with Leech signing in Baltimore), and McCoy, in his 3rd season, could conceivably make the biggest jump from yesteryear. Bottom line, Tier 2 is legit.
Tier 3 is also very solid, but there are more questions. With Turner, it’s age, and the perception that he’s slowed down if only a tiny bit. Mendenhall is a very good runner, but his fumbling woes have turned his coach off to goal line carries – that’s never ideal. Forte is another stud runner, but Cutler rarely checks down and goal line carries have been rare. With Marion Barber signing in Chicago, the goal line just got farther away. Steven Jackson is an elite talent, no doubt, but his consistent numbers haven’t been exciting the last couple years. He doesn’t score much and rarely puts up great days. McFadden has injury woes and he’s a Raider – he really impressed at times last season, but I’m not ready to rank him ahead of the rest of Tier 3. Peyton Hillis was great, a real fantasy sweetheart last year. He took the job and ran with it, but Cleveland gets Montario Hardesty back this season, a youngster they really liked heading into 2010 prior to his injury. With a very young team, no passing attack, and a runner to share the load, even the Madden cover boy has his questions (plus, Madden Curse, right?). All in all, these are great #2 options, and even walking away from your draft with Turner and Steven Jackson as your starters wouldn’t be terrible.
Tier 4 is small, but all guys have big time upside. We’ve already seen what DeAngelo can do when his team is winning games and he stays healthy, he was the best fantasy back a few years ago. He’s only 28, and his big signing means the Panthers are dedicated to him. Blount and Matthews (two guys we rank just ahead of Williams) haven’t reached their potential yet, but with both getting the starting job for their improving teams, 2011 could be a great year to invest in the youngsters. Best is another sophomore, but he’s not being hyped around fantasy circles as much as we like him. We understand the risk, and he’s definitely the last back in this tier, but he’s closer to these guys than Tier 5, so he belongs.
The 5th Tier has a bunch of solid upside guys. I like the Top 4 more than the bottom 2, but both J-Stew and Moreno have their arguments. Jones is an interesting case, but we’ll like him a lot more if he’s back to his svelte body weight prior to 2010. Grant is coming off injury, but Starks didn’t impress me much, and if you take a risk here and get a starting RB for the Packers, you win big. Greene and Bradshaw are both semi-time-share back, but I expect both to get the majority of carries for run-first teams.
Tier 6 is full of guys with starting jobs that you can get on the cheap. The only guy with not much upside is Joseph Addai, but he’s probably the most consistent of the group. Many questions surround these guys, but I’d love to have any of the 7 on my team as #4 running backs. Ingram, Jackson, Benson, and Ellis could all pass as #3′s.
Tier 7 has some very talented youngsters, and a couple back-ups in LT and Michael Bush that I think could really impress if they ended up with starters’ carries. Torain should be the starting RB for a team that will get better up front and rely on the run more. Daniel Thomas, Williams and LeShoure are all very talented rookies that could end up with the lion’s share of touches for their teams. I’m not sure where Ronnie Brown will be just yet, but I’ve always thought the Dolphins misused him a bit. He’s a great receiver with good moves in the open field. If he finds a starting gig, he’ll run with it.
Tier 8 and 9 have some options, but I’d only want to take deep chances at this point. Fill your RB slot with the upper tiers, and buy some insurance low with these guys.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Free Football Betting Predictions: Somebody please tell me how 33% of the public thinks a Lions team without Matthew Stafford and without Shaun Hill and without the game-breaking ability of Jahvid Best with toes is going to be able to score more than two field goals (offensively – yeah, see, I cut you Jay Cutler pick-6 arguments off at the bud)? I don’t think it can happen. I found the Bears at -3, and so can you, but I have to believe that -3.5 or -4, or -6.5 for that matter are all lines that I would happily take.
Don’t get it twisted, last week’s offensive performance by the Bears was un-Chicago-like. Jay Cutler was throwing dimes, and he wasn’t even trying much crazy stuff. He looked to be reading the defense and not just picking a play and throwing it regardless of who or what was standing in his path. Matt Forte was getting blocks and using them. It was magic. That’s not Chicago – they win games, but they don’t play perfect football like that very often, and probably not the rest of the season. But this is Detroit, minus a leader or tested QB.
Here lies Drew Stanton, the poor kid just wanted to start in the NFL and the Bears damn near killed him. He still has Calvin Johnson, so I guess anything is possible, but without a tough run game and against a dominant defense, the Lions are in TROUBLE. That’s all caps, by the way, meaning big time. Take the Bears, take the money, smile.
Lots of emails this week, keep ‘em coming! PAPAWEIMER50@hotmail.com – I’ll answer them with experience, honesty, and probably while drinking. Enjoy!
David wrote, “Papa, who would you start in a flex position this week: Best, Lynch, Williams(Sea), or Steve Johnson?”
Best and Lynch both have terrible match-ups, and I would stay away from both of them, even though I think they are the best players of the three. Mike Williams sure played poorly last week against Oakland, but he could fair better against the Giants – they seem to struggle with either really good or big, strong receivers. Dez Bryant carved them for 2 TDs, Andre Johnson had over 90 yards, Jason Witten had a really good game (he’s basically used as a really big receiver), Calvin Johnson torched them for 140+ -and those guys are all Mike Williams-ish sized. But I think I’d go with Steve Johnson. I mean, his TD streak has to stop sometime, he’s rocking 5 games in a row right now – but he’s a focal point of Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Chicago doesn’t let you run, so a full blown 30+ pass attempts for Fitzpatrick is likely.
Big Dave also sent in this gem, “Which QB should I pickup for week 10 bye: Fitz, Garrard, Young, Kitna, or Stafford?”
Kitna goes up against the Giants, and while he put up some nice stats, it was almost in garbage time – and we all saw how well that Big D offensive line blocked the G-men last time, so I wouldn’t pick him. Detroit plays Buffalo, who is up and down in the secondary, but it seems like he’s a solid option. The Titans play Miami, a team that just has a pretty solid defense overall, I’d probably stay away from Vincent Allen Young (made up that middle name, but it sounds like it would fit). Jacksonville plays Houston, and their worst pass defense in the league – but the Jags are either solid or terrible – and anytime you start their players, playing a good or bad team, it’s a risk. Ryan Fitzpatrick plays Detroit, as I said earlier, and he’s been pretty good (aside from last game, really) so he’s a good option, too. I think I’d go for Fitz, Stafford, or Fitzpatrick. I think Stafford has more weapons, so I think I’d go his way – but see how he does this week, and if he fails miserably against the Jets, you might end up going with Garrard or Fitzpatrick. Garrard has the better match-up, but Fitzy is more consistent. Never thought I’d be saying that…
BJ Frost asked, “I know your the expert so give me your thoughts. I have two RBs on bye this week. I have 5 RBs to choose from but can start only 3. Michael Bush, Beanie Wells, Christopher Ivory, Shonn Green, and Ricky Williams. Which three would you choose. Standard format, no points for receptions.”
if Beanie plays, I would start him – but right now he’s looking questionable at best. Ricky is averaging about 4.5 yards per carry this season, which is nice, but he hasn’t toted the rock more than 13 times since Week 1, and scored his first touchdown last week. Going up against Baltimore isn’t as scary as it used to be, but it’s no walk in the park, either. Ivory going up against Carolina is probably one of your best bets – he’s been solid in most games he’s gotten 10 carries or more, and he’s had at least one really good game. it’s either him or Julius Jones to get the carries in New Orleans, so you’d think Chris would be the guy. Pierre and Bush are both likely to sit out again. If Wells is out, I’d go with Bush, Ivory, and Shonn Greene. At the very least, the Jets could get on the right side of the Lions and turn into a run-heavy attack. Greene is a beast, if he’d only get 20 carries, or if LT didn’t look so damn good. Bush is a stud as well, and McFadden didn’t get dinged up last week, so he’s due this week… Even if Darren does stay healthy, Bush has shown he can get big yards rushing on minimal carries, and he’s a threat as a pass catcher down by the goal line. If Wells is healthy, shoot, I’d probably go with Ivory, Greene, and Wells.
Fantasy Football Rankings: Fantasy Focus REVIEW Week 6
Well, Arse’s run at the top is over, but unfortunately it’s not me taking the title from the Arse, nope, this week belongs to Papa Weimer who absolutely killed it. He tied for 1st in QB rankings and got 2nd in WR rankings – everything else he took the top spot. He has the best overall week of the season, going for a final ranking’s total of just 6. 1, 1, 2, 1, 1 – that’s freaking awesome. Like I said, I didn’t win, but I didn’t finish last either. It was close, but Red Red Ryan and his three 4th place finishes (QB, RB, and DST) got him last place. Papa already sent out a gloating email when Chris Johnson scored that meaningless TD at the end of a slaughter game, but you all know how he loves to email!!! (Send fantasy questions to PAPAWEIMER50@HOTMAIL.COM) Heres the fantasy review!
We went and changed up the Focus competition this week. Instead of grading our scores based on rankings, we ranked everything out based on total fantasy points. It’s more fantasy realistic and more telling as to how we fared in our fantasy predictions.
Elite Starters: Guys picked early that I love this week, looking for Top 5 at their position. C+
- Peyton Manning –Peyton’s 300+ yards and 2 scores were good, but 9th amongst QBs. Still, his 22 points were just 4 behind the 2nd best QB in Week 6. B
- Chris Johnson- CJ’s 27 fantasy points (many of which came on a final drive that meant absolutely nothing) were good for a tie for 1st amongst RBs this week. A+
- Frank Gore – Gore had 149 yards rushing to get the 49ers their first win of the season, but he didn’t score and he didn’t catch passes – that gave him just 14 fantasy points – good for 15th. C
- Reggie Wayne – Wayne finished 32nd amongst WRs, but his 13 poits were just a fandful away from the Top 10. C
- Phillip Rivers– Rivers was oddly bad on Sunday. He lost Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd in the game, but he wasn’t doing much wit them. Thee were 17 guys better than Rivers on Sunday. He tied with Bradford and Tom Brady. D+
Solid Starters: Guys picked in middle rounds that should outplay their ranking/draft position this week. B
- Kyle Orton– Orton wasn’t great, but he looked solid – he was 14th overall and continues to be as solid as any QB in the league. B-
- Ahmad Bradshaw– Bradshaw was 10th amongst RBs, and looked great running against the Lions. A
- LaDainian Tomlinson– Tomlinson found it tough sledding against a motivated Denver defensive front, but in the end, his 2 touchdowns were huge, as he stepped up the pace when he was needed most. He was 3rd amongst RBs on Sunday. A+
- Eli Manning- Eli was tied for 10th despite having a funny look on his face throughout the game. 19 fantasy points and a couple TDs. B
- Jay Cutler –He threw for 290 yards, didn’t throw an interception – but he still didn’t do all that well. He didn’t throw a TD, either, and was getting hit early and often by Seattle’s un-vaunted pass rush. D
Sleeper Starters: Guys ranked low, drafted low or not at all, but I still like them this week… A
- Johnny Knox -Over 100 yards receiving for Knox, still no TD yet, but 17pts was good for 14th amongst WRs. A
- Jamaal Charles –Charles got 16 carries and 4 catches and got over 100 yards of offense. He was 13th amongst RBs. A
- Ryan Torain– #2 going into Monday’s game. Pretty dang good. RT runs hard! A+
- BenJarvus Green-Ellis– He didn’t do much with his limited touches, amazing how all of a sudden he doesn’t get any love from his coach – but BJGE did score a TD on one of those carries, and accrued 8 points for 30th amongst RBs. C+
- Pierre Garcon – Garcon led the Colts in receiving, and finished with 4 grabs for 103 yards and a TD. Good for 9th Sunday. A+
Super Sleepers: Undrafted guys that are usually unowned, but in a pinch put ‘em in coach! B
- Cadillac Williams– Williams didn’t run all that well, but he was a threat out of the backfield, catching a bunch of passes. He finished with just 12 fantasy points, just 23rd on the day – but just 4 points away from a Top 10 week. B
- Derrick Mason- The old man did work, catching 8 balls for 100 yards (both season highs) a top 12 WR on Sunday. A
- Dwayne Bowe– Amazing day for Bowe. Does this mean he’s back? Over 100 yards, two touchdowns, maybe? A+
- Joshua Cribbs – Cribbs went down early and couldn’t come back with a minor concussion. F
- Anthony Armstrong- 9 fantasy points for AA, Top 44 amongst WRs – not a bad last second option. B
Sit ‘Em Son: I don’t care where they were drafted, I don’t like these guys starting this week… B+
- Mike Williams (TB)–I didn’t expect much and he didn’t deliver much. Probably not his fault, but his 8 fantasy points were good for 47th amongst WRs. A good sit. A
- Sam Bradford– Sam played a very solid game and got the win for his guys. He was just 18th but tied with Brady and Phil Rivers. Not bad company, but just 18th overall on Sunday. He threw one TD and didn’t toss one INT. B-
- Shaun Hill – Shaun Hill was playing well when he broke his arm. Not sure I would have been right but as is, I’ll take the injury solid play here. B
- Jahvid Best– GMen locked Best up pretty good, Jahvid had just 10 fantasy points. He also had 12 carries for just 16 yards. He’s a good player, but admit it, that was a terrible match-up. B+
- Peyton Hillis– Hillis wasn’t bad – his rushing totals looked like he played Pittsburgh, and he did, but he got to 14 fantasy points after a big catch week. C+
***The scoring has changed, but did the outcome stay the same? No, sir – with the scoring change went Arse’s rain at the top – you can still follow him @AlakanArse on Twitter.***
Week 6 didn’t see me at the bottom, close though. Papa takes the cake in Week 6, Arse loses his strangle hold – here are the fantasy rankings for Week 6.
Week 6 QB Final Rankings
|Ryan Kauffman 4||Josh Arsenault 1||Papa Weimer 2||Lucky Lester 3|
|Peyton Manning 22||Peyton Manning 22||Kyle Orton 16||Peyton Manning 22|
|Phillip Rivers 13||Phillip Rivers 13||Drew Brees 26||Phillip Rivers 13|
|Eli Manning 19||Drew Brees 26||Phillip Rivers 13||Tony Romo 26|
|Kyle Orton 16||Joe Flacco 23||Peyton Manning 22||Eli Manning 19|
|Joe Flacco 23||B. Roethlisberger 26||Big Dumb Ben 26||Kyle Orton 16|
Week 6 RB Final Rankings
|Ryan Kauffman 4||Josh Arsenault 1||Papa Weimer 1||Lucky Lester 3|
|Frank Gore 14||LeSean McCoy 12||Chris Johnson 27||Chris Johnson 27|
|Ray Rice 19||LaDain. Tomlinson 20||Adrian Peterson 14||Frank Gore 14|
|Rash. Mendenhall 18||Frank Gore 14||Ahmad Bradshaw 16||Adrian Peterson 14|
|LaDain. Tomlinson 20||Adrian Peterson 14||Rash. Mendenhall 18||LaDain. Tomlinson 20|
|Michael Turner 5||Chris Johnson 27||Matt Forte 14||Michael Turner 5|
Week 6 WR Final Rankings
|Ryan Kauffman 2||Josh Arsenault 3||Papa Weimer 1||Lucky Lester 4|
|Miles Austin 3||Reggie Wayne 13||Reggie Wayne 13||Reggie Wayne 13|
|Andre Johnson 27||Anquan Boldin 16||Greg Jennings 25||Brandon Lloyd 11|
|Anquan Boldin 16||Hakeem Nicks 3||Malcom Floyd 3||Hakeem Nicks 3|
|Hakeem Nicks 3||Roddy White 14||Roddy White 14||Malcom Floyd 3|
|Malcom Floyd 3||Mike Sims-Walker 3||Miles Austin 3||Miles Austin 3|
Week 6 TE Final Rankings
|Ryan Kauffman 2||Josh Arsenault 3||Papa Weimer 1||Lucky Lester 3|
|Antonio Gates 3||Antonio Gates 3||Antonio Gates 3||Dallas Clark 11|
|Dallas Clark 11||Vernon Davis 13||Dallas Clark 11||Antonio Gates 3|
|Vernon Davis 13||Zach Miller 6||Vernon Davis 13||Chris Cooley 8|
|Chris Cooley 8||Chris Cooley 8||Tony Moeaki 4||Zach Miller 6|
|Aaron Hernandez 11||Dallas Clark 11||Tony Gonzalez 16||Vernon Davis 13|
Week 6 DST Final Rankings
|Ryan Kauffman 4||Josh Arsenault 3||Papa Weimer 1||Lucky Lester 2|
|Steelers 17||Steelers 17||Steelers 17||Bears 8|
|Bears 8||Cowboys 11||Titans 22||Steelers 17|
|Giants 12||Chargers 7||Chargers 7||Titans 22|
|Chargers 7||Jets 9||Bears 8||Giants 12|
|Jets 9||Giants 12||Seahawks 13||Chargers 7|
Week 6s Writer Rankings
|Ryan Kauffman 4||Josh Arsenault 2||Papa Weimer 1||Lucky Lester 3|
|1.QBs 4||1.QBs 1||1.QBs 1||1.QBs 3|
|2.RBs 2||2.RBs 3||2.RBs 1||2.RBs 4|
|3.WRs 4||3.WRs 1||3.WRs 2||3.WRs 2|
|4.TEs 2||4.TEs 3||4.TEs 1||4.TEs 3|
|5.DST 4||5.DST 3||5.DST 1||5.DST 2|
Who did we MISS?
QB: Kevin Kolb: In Mike Vick’s absence Kevin Kolb has done work. This week he led all quarterbacks in fantasy points.
RB: Felix Jones and Ryan Torain both had a big week and were 5th and 3rd amongst RBs in Week 6.
WR: Jeremy Maclin, Dwaned Bowe, Deion Branch, Mike Williams: A good week for wide receivers – who ever thought the Deion Branch trade would work out for both sides? Mike Williams (yep, that USC MW) looked good as the #1 against that tough Bears D, and he led the Hawks to a win. Deion Branch was huge leading the Patriots in receiving during an OT win over Baltimore. Dwayne Bowe dropped having the drops, he was impressive with a couple scores, and was ranked 2nd headed into Monday Night. Jeremy Maclin took advantage of his own teammate going down, and he became the go-to-guy, catching 7 balls for 159 yards and a couple touchdowns from Kevin Kolb.
TE: Ben Watson; We should have known. The Browns weren’t going to be able to run, and Colt would find some solace in his big athletic Tight End.
DEF: San Francisco 49ers: The Niners did work and ousted the Raiders – that’s the D that Samurai Mike has been looking for.
Ask Papa Weimer: Week 5 2010 Fantasy Football Picks: Hey there, the emails that have been coming in are great, plenty of great questions and with every great question comes one of my answers – it being great or not comes later, but I’ve been having a lot of fun with the writer/reader interaction, and I hope you all are enjoying it as well. Keep writing in and asking me for advice, agree or disagree, sometimes it’s just nice to see somebody else’s side of the situation, gives you some perspective. I tried to pull out the questions and answers that are most relevant and will help you the most this Sunday, and here is what I came up with…
Da Bird asks, “Should I trade Roddy White and the Giants’ D to get Wes Welker and the Packers’ D?”
No. No sir. There’s some common thought going around that Wes Welker is going to blow up with Randy Moss out of his way. Wrong, Wes Welker is going to see what it’s like when defenses prepare to shut him down without slinging two players over to the other side of the field to pay attention to Randy Moss. Wes Welker is still good, I’d love to have him on my team, but Roddy White is a better option, one that I’d be very happy with. I just don’t think Welker gets better. The Giants D isn’t as good ad the Packers, but it’s just a D, never let that decide a trade for you.
Donny B from Chestnut Street says, “A plethora of questions coming your way here. 1- Who do you start at your flex this week, Barber or Michael Bush? 2- I’m still down on Witten, but should I give him up with Boldin to get Austin Collie and McCluster? 3- Vince Young or Shaun Hill this week, Mike Vick is out and I don’t have Kolb… Thanks for all your help!”
1) Michael Bush, no doubt about it. His match-up is solid, and he’s a great runner – look at his numbers, he gets the chances he produces good stuff. With McFadden playing at 50% or not playing at all, it’s Bush’s turn to take advantage of some #1 bacl targets.
2) Absolutely not. I’d rather have Boldin than Collie (despite point totals) and I’d rather have Witten than McCluster, easy. Bad trade. Witten will end up doing work in Dallas, it’s only been three games, give him 5 before you give him away.
3) I would also start Shaun Hill, if Stafford doesn’t come back. The Rams aren’t very good on the road – it should be a shoot out, they aren’t great in the secondary – I think Hill is a decent start, not only do they have CJ – but Jahvid Best out of the backfield is also a scary weapon, and those two TEs (Scheffler and Pettigrew) are both big sure handed targets as well. Vince’s best weapon is the guy he hands the football to, and he gets no fantasy numbers from handing off.
David from the Mall pleads, “Papa, should I go with Gradkowski or Bradford this week? What is up in Seattle? Is Lynch going to be the man? What will happen to Forsett? Is Moss going to Minnesota? Is Tate in NE worth picking up or will it be somebody else?
I honestly have no idea to any of your questions accept that I would go with Bradford. Your guess is as good as mine with Lynch and Forsett, but I know that Lynch is a powerful back that catches the ball well, has good speed, and has put together some great all around seasons in a bad offense. If the Hawks were willing to meet the asking price that nobody else would, you think they’d give him a chance to be the man, but who knows. I have no idea about Moss and I’m not sure if it will make him more or less worth your roster spot. (WAIT!!! Now that Moss has moved to Minnesota, back to his NFL roots, is he in a better or worse situation? I think he’s in a situation where he’ll try harder, a place where he gets to play with a guy that he’s always wanted to play for, on a team that desperately wants a guy like him to add into the playbook – that seems like a better situation than his last gig, but a lot depends on Brett Favre. As for the guy likely taking over for Randy in New England, I’ve always loved Tate, and he would seem to be ready to take full advantage of more targets- but hoody is an interesting guy.
Johnson-de-ville at work writes, “Looking for Survivor pool options for week 5. I’ve already gone through the Jets, Ravens, Colts, and Green Bay – can you give me a Top 3 for this weekend, not those teams?
My man, you bet. I love it if I can stay away from road teams in my survivor pool, but eventually you come across one that looks too good to be true, and with the teams you listed off the board, I think I’d have to rank the Saints #1. They are going on the road to play the Cardinals, but that turnover-feast offense will try to chew up the clock. I think Brees and his O has their biggest day of the season. I like the Bengals because I don’t think the Bucs can stop their run, and the Bengals should be very focused coming off a big loss last week. San Diego at Oakland is another one – as good as the Raiders can be defensively, the Chargers are just too good to bet against.
Philadelphia Eagles VS Detroit Lions NFL Free Pick: Please. I love that Mike Vick is the guy set to start this game, and love that somehow the Lions have gone from sure thing losers to just 3-point underdogs at home despite missing their #1 quarterback and producing less than 2 yards per carry last week against the Chicago Bears. Those are not good things, if you’re a Lions’ fan.
Jahvid Best had a nice fantasy week in his first start in the NFL, but the Lions really struggled to run the ball. In this fantasy culture it might look like Best and the Lions were off to a good start on the ground, scoring a couple touchdowns in the first quarter. But that’s not the case, not at all. The Lions were gifted great field position by Jay Cutler and company, and that led to a couple short touchdown runs by Best. The numbers just don’t translate to future games.
Shaun Hill won’t help that situation. Unlike Stafford, Hill doesn’t have the arm strength to stretch the field or make the defense worry about everything. That will allow the Eagles to keep everything in front of them, load up on the line of scrimmage, and blitz as much as they want. Hill is more savvy than people give him credit for, but he’s a tough play against the pressure-happy Eagles.
Vick against the Lions is a nightmare match-up. Detroit won’t be able to both keep Vick contained and keep the speedy Eagles receivers in front – they’ll have to spend a lot of time preparing for what Vick brings to the table, and that won’t help them.
I’ll take the Eagles by double digits, an easy cover of 3.5 points at most online sports betting sites.
I’m not trying to take up a lot of your time with an intro or anything, but it’s my damned article so I’m going to take this time to tell you a story. (Lucky Lester edit, to go right to predictions, scroll down and ignore the following)
When I was a boy I wasn’t too hot on telling people what was going to happen. I just thought about stuff before I did it, came to my own conclusions, then chuckled to myself when those who did dumb things ended up exactly where my mind had predicted they’d be. I also realized that it was easier that way. I beat lots of folks at lots of stuff, but not once did I predict (out loud) that I would beat them. I just won a lot and liked it. Now that I’m old and I don’t win physically as much, I tend to talk about stuff a lot more. Now I predict things, and when they come true I squack around like a blasted rooster at daybreak. The moral of my story is this, when you’re old you do stuff you can’t really explain, like tell stories before articles.
Without further ado, here are my 2010 NFL Season and Fantasy Football Predictions. 40 big ones!
- Write this one down in stone… Both these things will happen: 1 – One of the following teams will win at least 9 games (Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Seattle, St. Louis, Buffalo, or Jacksonville). 2 – One of the following teams will win less than 9 games (Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Atlanta, or the Jets).
- Shonn Green has 3x as many carries as LT and finishes with at least 1200 yards.
- Jahvid Best leads all rookies in total yards – yeah, I’ve just recently came up wit that.
- CJ Spiller finishes the season with more touchdowns than any other rookie.
- Brandon Jacobs returns to his old self – at least 1100 yards and 12 touchdowns.
- Vince Young finishes the season as a Top 12 Fantasy Quarterback.
- Nate Washington, not Kenny Britt, will lead the Titans in receiving.
- Dennis Dixon wins at least 3 games as the starting quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
- Derek Anderson starts fewer than half the Cardinal games this season.
- Marion Barber scores 12 touchdowns or more this season.
- Percy Harvin finishes with 14 touchdowns or more.
- The Colts start the season 6-0 before losing their game after the bye week to Houston.
- No passing, rushing, or receiving records get broken this year (yards, touchdowns, etc).
- The Oakland Raiders win at least 7 games this year, but probably not Week 1 in Tennessee.
- Beanie Wells finishes top 5 in yards per game played.
- Hakeem Nicks will be the highest scoring fantasy receiver in New York -that counts the Giants as well as the Jets.
- The San Diego Chargers don’t end up winning the AFC West, in stunning fashion.
- The Cleveland Browns start the season with two wins – but they win just 3 more to finish with just 5.But I’m willing to bet they’ll do a lot better ATS.
- Jerome Harrison finishes with 1150+ yards, 8+ touchdowns, and 350+ receiving yards.
- Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew – one of these touch-heavy running backs plays fewer than 11 games in 2010.
- Brett Favre doesn’t match the same numbers he had in 2009 – but he still throws 20+ touchdowns for Minnesota.
- The Ohio State Buckeyes win the National Championship, but Terrelle Pryor never starts in the NFL.
- Donovan McNabb leads the Redskins to 10 wins.
- Albert Haynesworth gets traded.
- LeSean McCoy catches at least 60 passes this season.
- Carnell “Cadillac” Williams finishes the season as a Top 10 rusher in the NFL.
- Nate Burleson scores 8 touchdowns or more for the Lions.
- Reggie Bush, in PPR leagues, finishes the season as a Top 12 running back in fantasy terms.
- Dez Bryant starts by Week 3.
- Jeremy Maclin finishes with 1000+ yards and at least 7 touchdowns.
- Laurent Robinson finishes within 20 fantasy point of Hines Ward.
- 2010 NFC MVP? Adrian Peterson. 2010 AFC MVP? Tom Brady. Rookie of the Year? Offensively, Jahvid Best. Defensively, Rolando McClain. Comeback player of the year? Cadillac Williams (because he deserved it last year and has his best season of his career this year).
- NFC Champ – Green Bay Packers
- AFC Champ – Baltimore Ravens
- Super Bowl Champ – Green Bay Packers
- Jay Cutler throws 30 touchdowns in Chicago – fewer than 15 interceptions.
- I get over half of these predictions right (if this one is the tie breaker, it counts, yahtzee!)
- Dexter McCluster catches 70+ balls for the Chiefs this season.
- Eddie Royal has at least 67 catches for 800 yards and 6 touchdowns.