NFL Free Agent Moves: Fantasy Football Implications

This is wild! This is crazy! This is an entire summer of free agency in a couple days. They should hold out every year…. Okay, maybe that’s a little much, but the wait has certainly paid off as we are getting an influx of interesting moves, from big name trades to stupid owners refusing to trade people because they’re stubborn idiots without any sense that they aren’t the guy who runs the planet. Yes, this is awesome. Football wise, we’ll see how they all turn out, but what do the big moves mean for the fantasy fire power? I attempt to answer that right now!

Devin Aromashodu: Interestingly enough, this move was announced prior to Sydney’s addition in Seattle. Well, it means a whole heck of a lot more now. The outcast from Mike Martz’s over-coaching will get a chance to be a #2 target in Minnesota behind Percy Harvin. It should be interesting, but I’d say his upside is worth a look late in deep leagues.

Steve Breaston: Breaston in Kansas City is interesting. One wonders if it was Todd Haley (old OC and now current HC in KC – look at all those C’s) that made Breaston a promising big speedster, or if it was Kurt Warner. If you believe it was Haley (and maybe Haley thinks that) then you should grab Breaston late. If you think it was Kurt, and that Cassel’s touchdown-happy second half of the season was flukey, then stay away. Either way, KC is a run-first offense with Dwayne Bowe and 1st Round pick Jon Baldwin, not to mention the wild card Dexter McCluster – so keep your projections for Breaston low, he loses value fleeing Arizona. Early Ducet moves up, though, as he likely gets the nod at #2 opposite Larry Fitzgerald.

Reggie Bush: My good Doctor, Dr. Zarrabi, says that Bush has gained the most value in free agency thus far – I’m not so sure, but I can see where he’s coming from. Bush moves to Miami where he becomes “the guy” or so they say. I don’t know how he’ll ever stay healthy enough to be the guy anywhere, but he’ll definitely help the Dolphins open up their offense, as he’s certainly a game breaker. I’m wondering what role he’ll have in comparison to Daniel Thomas who I project as a better true running back. Taking his talents to South Beach, though, it could get wild! I recently picked Bush in the last round of a fantasy league, so I’ll agree, his stock shoots up – no way he lasts that long after this trade.

Jabar Gaffney: Traded to a place where wide receivers go to die, so no, I don’t expect him to do as much as he did last year which means, he’s not draftable.

Bruce Gradkowski:I guess Bruce is on the list for those of you who are interested in Andy Dalton being the sure-thing starter – I don’t know. I’m not sure if Bruce will every be draftable, but I’m pretty sure he’ll be starting some games in Cincinnati this season – and you know what else? Carson and the Owner will be starting the same amount of games as well.

Matt Hasselbeck: This pretty much squares up the whole “Jake Locker as the starter” situation in Tennessee, if by squares up you mean squashes. Jake was hardly ready to start at UW last season. Hasselbeck is certainly on the downside of his career, but a much better offensive line, a more talented wide receiver, and Chris Johnson instead of a Marshawn Lynch/Just Forsett duo – yeah, I’d say Hass’s stock goes up in Tennessee. I think he’s better than Kerry Collins, and I think he stays healthier by staying off his back in Tennessee.

Santonio Holmes: Holmes likes what he sees in New York, with Mark Sanchez and a talented group of players – I’d trust him with this one. Sanchez will improve, he’s still so very young, and with him will go Holmes who was one of the most talented free agent position players in football this season. He didn’t move, but him leaving money on the table in Washington to stay in NY should tell you a lot about both teams.

Tarvaris Jackson:While Hasselbeck’s stock goes up from last season, so to does Tarvaris Jackson – he’ll probably end up being the starter in Minnesota, and with him comes Sydney Rice to help with the transition. Also, Seattle is looking to have a much improved offensive line. THey’ll move Max Unger to center, where he’ll be above average. Rookie RT, James Carpenter is a solid bookend opposite Russel Okung. Robert Gallary, one of the best OGs on the market, is also signing with the Hawks – but most importantly, maybe, is the addition of Tom Cable as the O-line coach – that will be great for a sour-puss offensive line from last year. I’ve always seen something in Jackson, lets hope I’m not wrong about this guy like I was about Maroney.

Vincent Jackson: I know Vincent didn’t move teams, and he can’t be too happy to be sticking around, but he became a multi-millionaire by signing his tender, and at least by signing his franchise tag he comes into camp on time and gets to play with one of the best young QBs in the league for an entire year (though I hardly see him fighting through injuries). Regardless, he becomes a Top 10 WR and he hasn’t been going as such.

Chad Johnson: He wasn’t a free agent, and neither was the other new Patriot, Albert Haynesworth – in fact, both Ochocinco (I feel dirty even writing that) and Big Al were problem children for their former teams, but the Patriots felt it benefitted them to pay very little for two supremely talented players that could very easily make the difference in a Championship season. Chad is no Randy Moss, don’t get it twisted – he is unlikely to spend much time going over the middle, and he is a high profile wide receiver, hey, he might even take some plays off, but don’t expect Chad to come in and toy with Randy’s touchdown record like Moss did when he got traded to New England. But does he add something big to the Patriots? You bet! I wouldn’t be surprised if he led the team in receiving yards. Al’s the big win here. The Patriots will almost surely find a way to get him to play up to his potential, even if they don’t switch to a 4-3. Remember, he was ticked that the Redskins were playing a 3-4, and he’s going to a perrinial 3-4 squad in New England – but it’ll almost surely be different, and we’ll all learn how you’re supposed to coach a guy like Al.

Kevin Kolb: I think Kolb’s stock goes up the most, obviously – but Arizona should be a great place for him. There are a few backs that are solid in Arizona, Beanie and Ryan Williams both have the upside to be great – if they put it together, and Larry Fitz is a Top 3 receiver in football, if not the best in the game. Kolb is a good player, don’t get it twisted. Sure, the Eagles seem to know when to get rid of players, but this is a different case – this Kolb guy was the kid that Andy Reid chose to start over Mike Vick last season. There’s great upside here, I think he’s a Top 15 QB.

Donovan McNabb: With Rice gone, I’m not sure McNabb is a Top 15 WR. I love Percy Harvin, no doubt, and Percy’s stock has to go up from where it was heading into free agency. McNabb could really use a great run game from the Vikings, he doesn’t have the skills to throw it 35 times like he used to in Philly during his star days, but he still has a very strong arm, and Minnesota might be just the place for him to put an exclamation point on a very impressive career. I hope he does so.

Sidney Rice: I think Rice was the best skill position player on the free agent market, and thus I think the Hawks were very wise to grab him. He instantly becomes their best game breaking talent, and a guy that will stretch the field and dominate 1 on 1 coverage if defenses stack the line of scrimmage. Mike Williams is a decent running partner, even though he is a heavy (meaning light, actually, just more weight) version of Rice. Neither player wins with their elite speed, but Rice is faster, and big/tall like Williams. Tough match-up problems in Seattle. If Jackson can get the ball there (or Whitehurst I guess).

Brad Smith: This is an interesting move for the Bills, I have to be honest. With Stevie Johnson and Lee Evans, there’s not too much room for pass catching options, and with CJ Spiller rocking the return game (for the price of a 1st round pick 2 seasons ago) I’m not too sure the “need” is there.

Donte Stallworth: To Washington… John Beck? Rex Grossman? I don’t know what Washington is up to, but I don’t think I’d put many hopes on Donte.

DeAngelo Williams: Williams didn’t move, but his staying in Carolina might hurt both his and Jon Stewart’s stock, at least a little bit. But I think Carolina has always like DeAngelo more than Stewart, and they paid Williams like he’s the surefire #1 guy. I think Carolina is a better offense than many pundits are expecting. They have an awesome wide receiver, a young QB that can run, and thus make defenses respect his legs, and thus open the running game a little. Jordan Gross is back, and he is their best lineman. Healthier and stronger up front, I expect Williams to break 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2011.

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pick-Ups: Week 9 Waiver Wire Warriors

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pick-Ups: Week 9 Waiver Wire Warriors: Well, team LuckyLester hit a couple right on the head in our 1st Waiver Wire Warrior s article. The new addition to our weekly writings was a big hit, not only in mass readership, but in the production our pick-ups gave owners this week. Of course we’re not going to nail every waiver pick-up, but certainly those of you who grabbed LaGarrette Blount, Danny Woodhead, Steve Johnson, Davone Bess, Brandon Tate, or Brandon Pettitgrew all ended up with touchdowns and more for your Week 8 match-up. Hopefully we can give you some more pearls of wisdom for Week 9.

Remember, if you have any fantasy football questions, and want to get them answered by Papa Weimer himself, send your questions to PAPAWEIMER50@hotmail.com – you’re bound to get something informative at the very least. Here goes Waiver Wire Warriors for Week 9.

(Our Waiver Wire analysis, and top pick-ups, will be limited to guys that are under 20% owned in ESPN leagues. That means the guys we suggest should be available in about 80% of fantasy leagues out there and should help you out. Just like the weekly fantasy rankings, each guy agreed to give their Top 5 (even though we play in the same leagues together and that might be considered top-secret information). I’m also going to give you my “Pull The Trigger” area for guys that are obvious pick-ups and still owned in less than 60% of fantasy leagues. And there’s going to be an area called “End It Already” for guys that I consider drop-worthy, or try to trade now-worthy, regardless of their %-Owned.)

Top Waiver Wire Pick-Ups

Top Waiver Wire Pick-Ups (For Week 9)

Ryan Kauffman	Josh Arsenault	Papa Weimer	Lucky Lester	Nate B. Kuhns
Troy Smith	LeGarrette Blount	Jordy Nelson	LeGarrette Blount	Anthony Gonzalez
LeGarrette Blount	Rams D/ST	LeGarrette Blount	James Jones	Darrius Heyward-Bey
Mike Hart	Jordy Nelson	Jason Campbell	Patrick Crayton	Jacob Tamme
Jason Campbell	Damian Williams	Roscoe Parrish	Mike Thomas	Mike Hart
Brandon Tate	Troy Smith	Patrick Crayton	Brandon Gibson	Josh Freeman
Patrick Crayton	Jacob Tamme	Brandon Tate	Troy Smith	LeGarrette Blount

I like James Jones while nobody else does. This is my thinking. At the #2 this week or the #3 (behind Jordy Nelson) whichever he plays, he’s still going to get plenty of looks. James has huge play potential, and with Finley out for the season and Driver hobbled and likely at least out for this week, Jones should be in line for some solid looks in Week 9. Their thinking could be his zero catches last week against New York. We all dig LeGarrette Blount, still, obviously – we liked him last week and he did some big things in Week 8  – he’s a beast and you never know, he might just punch you in the face. I’ve always liked Troy Smith and I’m willing to bet he holds onto the job even when Alex Smith comes back – so if you’re in a deep league, he might be a nice pick-up for you.

Pull The Trigger

Mike Williams -TB (58% owned): I can’t believe it, but the masses don’t think like I do. Weird. What do I mean? I listed this guy at the top of my list for cats you should pick up and hurry, and he dropped a percentage this week. So what did he do? Oh, just score again, on a big time play – so what is this, his 5th double digit fantasy day as a WR, and his 2nd 20+ point game already this season. Just pick him up already, Roy Williams and Deion Branch owners…

Steve Johnson (51% Owned): Steve jumped more than 36 percentage points in ownership this week, and for good reason. Still, he’s owned in just half of leagues out there (well a percentage over half, but you get me). You can’t get him in all your leagues, but this guy is probably a better option than Donald Driver, Roy Williams, and Braylon Edwards moving forward – I’m not saying drop those 3 guys immediately, but find room for Steve -he has a touchdown in 5 straight now, and 5 or more catches in each of his last 3 games. Ryan Fitzpatrick likes his style, and so should you.

Josh Freeman (26% Owned): All Josh has done is be one of the most consistent sophomore QBs in some time. I know that “consistent” isn’t fantasy-speak for “sexy” but hey, what more can you ask for from your #2 QB than what Freeman is dealing out every single week? For being 26% owned, it’s crazy how solid he’s been. Only once this season has Freeman finished under 14 points (against Pittsburgh, give him a break), and already 5 times he’s finished with 18 points or more. Sure, he hasn’t scored more than 20, but what do you want from your fantasy guys (especially #2 QBs)? Do you want a guy that gets 26 then 4 then 22 then 8? No thanks, I’ll take 15 every week, and that’s what Freeman gives you, except it’s usually 18.

Davone Bess (31% Owned): Bess jumped 12% from last week, but he’s still owned in just under 1/3 of fantasy leagues. If it’s being the #3 receiver that worries you, he just took the #2 spot from Brian Hartline. The bottom line here is that Bess is the biggest play guy opposite Brandon Marshall, and BM gets most of the coverage and attention so Bess should continue to capitalize.

Jabar Gaffney (54% Owned): Not a flashy player by any means, but you could do a lot worse than a WR play for 4 catches and 50 yards at it’s lowest total. Because that’s what Gaffney has (at the very least) in each of his last 6 games. He has just 1 TD on the season, and he rarely gets above 14 fantasy points (just twice) but as far as sure thing numbers go, for a fill in guy, he’s a pretty solid bet.

End It Already

Deion Branch (71% Owned): Honestly, I know he came in and rubbed fantasy points all over the field, but I’d rather have Mike Thomas, Steve Johnson, James Jones, Danny Amdendola, and Davone Bess than Branch, and all those guys are way less owned than Branch.

Marion Barber (72% Owned): Still here from last week, but more people are dropping him… (down nearly 10% from last week) I don’t know if it’s Marion’s fault, but that running game in Dallas is atrocious, and Barber didn’t look good this weekend despite his touchdown.

Lance Moore (73% Owned): I’m sticking with dealing Moore – now’s the time, even better than last week. Bush will almost certainly be back after the Saints’ bye, and that’s when Moore will submit to a lesser role. You have a week of value left, treat it wisely!

Donald Brown (67% Owned): I’ve always liked Brown, but Mike Hart ran with much more success than Brown, seemingly taking the #2 spot from the former #1 overall pick, and Brown has another injury after Monday Night’s game – might be a good time to deal him if someone still believes in him as a handcuff.

Roy Williams (74% Owned): If somebody still buys the 5 touchdown guy from week 3, 5, and 6 then SELL!!!! If not, well, he’s hard to drop, yes, but I don’t think he’s easy to hold onto either. I’m predicting maybe 2 double digit fantasy performances over the rest of the season, a drop to 3rd on the depth chart (soon), and a pretty-unownable guy moving forward. I wouldn’t drop him yet, for the chance that I’m wrong, but if you can trade him to help your team somewhere, as a throw in with another good player for a better player, I think it’s a great move.

A couple guys WE think should be owned in ALL LEAGUES….

Mike Williams-TB (56%) Steve Johnson (51%) Davone Bess (31%) Josh Freeman (26%) Sam Bradford (28%)

Target Targets, NFL Fantasy Week 6

 

 

 

When evaluating a player’s value the average fantasy owner looks strictly at production, more specifically the total amount of points scored.  This perspective certainly has validity, however it fails to take into account the peripheral numbers or what I like to call “Grey stats”.  “Grey Stats” include all statistical categories that have a strong correlation with a player’s production.  Many of these “Grey Stats” don’t directly affect your team’s point total, however knowing them certainly will.

One of my favorite “Grey stats” that gets very little notoriety is Targets.  A Target is simply when a Quarterback throws the ball to an eligible receiver, whether the ball is completed isn’t required.  The average production of a Wide Receiver has a direct correlation with how many times he is targeted.  The table below references the statistic TPC, which is Targets plus Completions.  Out of the top five highest TPC totals, four of them are the most prolific at their position.  The next interesting stat is TPC%, which looks at Target% (Targets/Attempts) + Completion% (Completions/Attempts).  TPC% shows how active the individual is in the offensive scheme, the more opportunities a talent is given the more likely he is going to produce.  Two stud WR that pop out on this chart when looking at TPC% are Brandon Marshall and Larry Fitzgerald.   Relative to total points scored, Marshall and Fitzgerald have under-preformed and are disappointments to many of their fantasy owners. However their relative TPC% is very high demonstrating that they are both very involved in their offensive scheme.  This analysis makes them both very good buy-low candidates with increased production to come.

Player	TPC	TPC%	PPR 1
Wayne, Reggie WR IND	95	43.98%	104.10
White, Roddy WR ATL	95	53.67%	101.30
Owens, Terrell WR CIN	92	47.42%	90.60
Lloyd, Brandon WR DEN	84	39.44%	106.90
Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG	83	47.70%	109.90
Collie, Austin WR IND	82	37.96%	111.60
Amendola, Danny WR STL	82	40.39%	63.30
Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI	81	51.59%	68.10
Gaffney, Jabar WR DEN	76	35.68%	69.70
Marshall, Brandon WR MIA	73	55.73%	67.00
Smith, Steve WR NYG	73	41.95%	64.00
Austin, Miles WR DAL	72	41.38%	90.40
Johnson, Calvin WR DET	72	34.62%	77.10
Moss, Santana WR WAS	72	42.35%	75.80
Ochocinco, Chad WR CIN	70	36.08%	63.60
Boldin, Anquan WR BAL	69	40.59%	82.30
Johnson, Andre WR HOU	66	40.24%	65.00
Colston, Marques WR NO	65	32.66%	53.70
Floyd, Malcom WR SD	61	33.33%	89.80
Crabtree, Michael WR SF	59	31.05%	50.40

*PPR1- Standard format with 1 point per reception