NFL Free Picks: Week 4 2011 Football Predictions

Washington Redskins (pk) @ St. Louis Rams

The Rams will have to put it together sooner or later, this is a good young football team with solid coaching and a heck of a young signal caller – but it takes some more chances offensively. Give Bradford the keys to the truck, fellas, or I’ll keep picking against you guys at home against teams like Washington in a pick-em. Gross.

Minnesota Vikings (-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Please. The Vikings have shown that they are good enough to play with anyone, or bad enough – sure. But they have to win this game. I think AP has about 25 carries and the Vikings salt it away early without much of a problem. Their defense is pretty decent, and if they would let McNabb throw some play action deep balls, I think the Vikings could actually be pretty good. KC can’t be good, they sold their souls to go to the playoffs last year.

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears (-6.5)

The Bears at home should beat up on the Panthers. I think this will be the toughest defense Cam Newton will have faced, and I think he gets beat up a little bit. The Bears are still better than YOU think, and without much pressure, at least not as much as he’s gotten lately, Cutler should have a nice day in the air – I like Matt Forte to put up nice numbers as well.

New Orleans Saints (-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Saints should slap the Jaguars around pretty good – unless you see something I don’t, this is one of my favorite lines of the day. This is right when Del Rio starts to lose it all.

Tennessee Titans (+1) @ Cleveland Browns

The Titans have the #1 defense in football right now, and I haven’t seen much from the Browns to think they are going to threaten that. But really, I’m betting on Chris Johnson finally having a day. I think I could rush for 2 yards a carry in the NFL, and that’s where he’s sitting at right now. Pretty unimpressive. Law of averages says, “keep your eyes on CJ this week”.

Washington Redskins VS Dallas Cowboys: Monday Night Football Free Pick

The Dallas Cowboys just aren’t as good as we all think they are. Listen to Vegas, they seem to be pretty well informed about how good a team is. Last week the Cowboys were only 3 point favorites in San Francisco – a team currently saddled with no rushing attack and Alex Smith throwing to an injured Braylon Edwards and an injured Michael Crabtree and of course a big bad man named Vernon Davis. Frank Gore hasn’t looked good, either. The 49ers are good against the run, sure, but terrible against the pass. So if they were only a 3 point favorite in San Fran (and they barely managed to push that game), how good does Vegas really think they are? You know they aren’t enamored with the 49ers…

Now, Washington on the other hand, they’ve looked pretty solid. They have run the ball well with a team consisting or Roy Helu Jr and Tim Hightower (not in that order) and Sexy Rexy has put up numbers under center. Shanahan’s magic is working!!! Dallas has a very questionable secondary, so Grossman shouldn’t have too much trouble putting in work on Monday Night.

To add more power to Washington’s side, the Cowboys are hurt up and down the board. Dez Bryant might play, but he hasn’t been healthy enough to practice all week so he can’t possibly be 100%. The same can be said for Felix Jones who hasn’t done anything all season. Myles Austin is also out for the Cowboys, taking Romo’s #1 target away from him. The offensive line hasn’t been good, and that leaves a healthy QB at risk. Throw in the fact that Romo has broken rips and soft lungs and you might just have a recipe for a Cowboy disaster.

Getting a field goal plus is good enough for me as I’ll take the Road-Skins.

Washington Redskins (+3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys

NFL Mock Draft: 2011 NFL Draft

A Real Mock Draft – For Better (OR WORSE) Team LL.Com Makes the Pick!

Alright, so I had this idea about a mock draft that I thought would be twice as good as your late mock that all but copies the super-NFL writers that have all the inside information and basically know the picks heading into draft. This one is different. This isn’t a “what will happen” mock draft, this is more of a fantasy rookie draft. The fantasy? Team LuckyLester.com gets a random number, 1, 2, 3, or 4 (it would have been 5, but Red Red Ryan was “too busy” – scoff!). They pick for the team at that number all the way down the draft. Josh (JA) picked #1 out of the hat, I (LL) got #2, Papa Weimer (PW) got #3, and Nate Kuhns (NK) got last, #4, but at least he doesn’t have to pay his guys as much…

So Josh has picks #1, #5, #9, and so on. I pick #2, #6, and on and on. Papa #3, #7… Nate #4, #8….

It makes sense, I’m sure of it.

For this mock, we get to be the team owners, the GMs, the coaches, whoever decides the guy we’ll pick in Round 1. You’ll notice that I make all the best decisions… (as the editor, I get to write that without getting it deleted)

I have the initials down at the end of the write up, letting you know each guy who made the pick for each team, so you know who to write in (papaweimer50@hotmail.com) and trash. I’ll be posting good trash talking, arguments, agreements, etc – so write in!
Josh is on the clock….

1. The Carolina Panthers select Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

Taking Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton will be the temptation here, but both are risky picks that weren’t projected as first rounders before Andrew Luck decided to stay in school and Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett faded down the stretch. Bowers will give the Panthers a pass-rushing monster to pair with Charles Johnson on the other side, wreaking havoc in opposing backfields. The Panthers need to stay ahead in turnover margin (-8 in 2010) for them to be successful, and getting pressure on the quarterback results in those impact plays that a defense feeds off of. I know his “knee concerns” will have him out of this spot, but I think he’ll be a very good player for a very long time. JA

2. The Denver Broncos select Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

I originally had the Broncos drafting Nick Fairley here, and while he came across poorly during the combine, I still think he’s the best defensive tackle in the draft (yes, better than Marcell Dareus) and he should be considered here. I watched the kid cause ruckus on the line all season long, and despite playing on the same team as Cam Newton, he was the best player on the field plenty of big games this season. However, I love me some Patrick Peterson, and think he has the make-up to be one special player on the outside. In a game that is becoming more pass friendly than ever, a player like Peterson can’t be overlooked. LL

3. The Buffalo Bills select Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

Like Lucky said, Fairley was the best defensive player in college football last season. He affected games from the DT position similar to the way Suh did last season. Now, I don’t think Fairley is Suh, but he certainly has an amazing skill set for a big man on the line, and Buffalo needs to stop the run and rush the passer, two things that Fairley can do from the time he steps foot on the field. A quarterback might be tempting here, but Fitzpatrick is solid, at least, and this is a team that needs to start finding ways to win. A young project QB isn’t the answer if winning is the goal. They might be able to trade down and get him, but either way, Fairley would help this team more than anybody else on the board. PW

4. The Cincinnati Bengals select A.J. Green, WR, Georgia

Green simply put is a beast at 6’4′ and 212 pounds with 4.38 speed, Green has the tools to make an immediate impact. With Ochocinco kicking balls instead of catching them, as well as Owens departure, the Bengals will need to look for an incumbent and Green is their man. I typically like to build inside out with the Top 5 picks, however with this kind of talent on the board, Green is my guy. NK

5. The Arizona Cardinals select Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M

Another QB-needy team will look to address those needs either later in the draft or via a trade or free agency. As pressing as the need is I remain unconvinced that either Gabbert or Newton will put the Cards over the edge in the NFC West in the coming seasons. Von Miller would be an immediate upgrade to an Arizona defense that relies on the big play rather than being a shutdown unit. Bringing him off the edge in Ken Whisenhunt’s 3-4 scheme would instantly improve a pass rush that struggled to get to the quarterback at times during the 2010 season. I expect the Cards to make a major push for Kevin Kolb, and if they are able to attain his services with a package of 2012 draft picks and nab a top defensive talent like Miller with this pick, they could well be in position to return to the top of the weakest division in football sooner rather than later. JA

6. The Cleveland Browns select Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama

Dareus is just too good of a find here. With AJ Green already off the board, Von Miller headed to Arizona, Peterson gone early to Denver, Fairley slipping in at 3, the Browns are still lucky to get Dareus here. They won’t be looking for a quarterback at this point – Colt McCoy seems like the guy in Cleveland. I don’t think they’d reach for Julio Jones, and unless the like Robert Quinn more than Big MD, this one is tough to pass on. Dareus has proven to be a beat up front throughout his college career, and has done plenty for himself in the off-season. Many have Dareus plowing past Fairley as the top DT, and getting a game changer in the middle with the 6th pick will be great for the Browns. LL

7. The San Francisco 49ers select, Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

I have to believe that we’re wrong up to this point, and a quarterback has already been taken (I know I’m not wrong, it must me one of the other guys) – but if we aren’t, and teams are actually following our path of sound advice, then the 49ers will get their choice at QB. There’s no Andrew Luck in this class, as new headman Jim Harbaugh certainly recognizes, but I’m willing to bet there’s enough in Gabbert’s upside to woo the Stanford coach into taking a chance. Gabbert has a cannon, he worked out as well as any QB on the board, and he’s looked comfortable under pressure and in the pocket. I think he’s the choice here, even though this QB class scares me a bit. The 49ers could go for Cam Newton instead, but I think they’ll be more smitten with Blaine. Prince Amukamara is another very good player that would probably help this team more than a QB, but that chance of hitting gold might be too much to pass up if their favorite signal caller is still on the board. PW

8. The Tennessee Titans select Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

With the majority of high impact defensive players off the board, including highly targeted Da’Quan Bowers, the Titans will look to address the most important offensive position on the field at QB. Fisher has targeted athletic QB’s in the past, and will look to do so again. The risk here remains high, however with K. Collins going into his 18th season and the debacle surrounding V. Young, Tennessee and Fisher will look for the next signal caller. NK

9. Dallas Cowboys select Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

Jerry’s crew should be thrilled to land Amukamara with the 9th pick in the first round. While Patrick Peterson profiles as the better athlete with the slightly higher ceiling, in my opinion Prince is more technically sound and possesses the higher floor. The cornerback position opposite Terence Newman has been a black hole for the Boys for years now and grabbing the heir to the throne both in name and position-wise would make too much sense to ignore. Securing the former Husker would allow the Cowboys to bump Mike Jenkins to the nickel back role or possibly transition Newman to safety as he approaches his age 33 season. JA

10. Washington Redskins select Julio Jones, wr, Alabama

With no true star at receiver, the redskins would have a tough time passing on a possible star in jones. His speed/size combo is very impressive and it’s even better that he’s not a princess like most star college receivers. This guy is as good a blocker as he is a playmaker and he’s big time in both areas. Think Brandon Marshall size and speed with no crazy tendencies. LL

11. The Houston Texans select Robert Quinn, de, Carolina

Robert Quinn would be a nice pick here, the Texans have needed production from the opposite DE spot as teams plan around Mario Williams but this corner is super talented and Houston needs more help in the secondary desperately. Tough choice. I’m going with Quinn here because his pressure will help the secondary as well as against the run. Pressure is a secondaries best friend. PW

12. The Minnesota Vikings select Tyron Smith, OT, USC

The glaring need here shines on the QB position, however with both top QB prospects off the board, Minnesota will look to solidify up front. Smith has the size and athleticism to become an impact player in both the run game as well as the pass. An investment here in Smith will increase the chances of the new QB in Minnesota staying off his back, as well as the Vikings getting back to a more balanced attack. NK

13. The Detroit Lions select Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

In the first real shocker of the draft, I like the Lions to avoid drafting based on need. If Amukamara slips this far I think he becomes the pick, but in this scenario Prince is long gone. Ingram is not a burner, but the presence of second-year man Jahvid Best allows the Lions to pair Ingram’s thump and grinding approach with Best’s big-play ability. The defense in Detroit has taken a major step forward under the guidance of DC Gunther Cunningham (not to mention an influx of talent headed by a boy named Suh). With the recent upgrades at the skill positions, this team is ready to ascend to the next level if QB Matthew Stafford can stay healthy under center. JA

14. The St. Louis Rams select J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin

I know Watt has been pegged an ideal 3-4 DE and thus is linked to a lot of teams moving to that style of defense, or looking for an end to plug in. But Watt has a great size to be any kind of defense end in any style of defense. His relentless motor and strength is going to immediately upgrade the Rams pass-rush and run defense. He truly is in the mold of those New York Giant defensive linemen that Steve Spagnuolo has first hand knowledge of. He already has his quarterback, there’s not a receiver worth drafting here, I like him improving that defensive line. LL

15. The Miami Dolphins select Anthony Costanzo, OT, Boston College

Despite being known for the wildcat offense, a run-heavy attack, and possessing two very talented runners last season, the Dolphins really had trouble running the ball. We all know they have one very talented OT in Jake Long, but they could use another and Constanzo is the best on the board. Not many people realized that the Dolphins struggled on the line last season, but it didn’t go unnoticed form my point of view, and something tells me the Dolphins realized it as well. Rarely do you get a chance to pick arguably the best offensive tackle in the draft at pick #15, and with Mark Ingram already off the board, Costanzo’s the next best (maybe first best?) way to get that running game going again. PW

16. The Jacksonville Jaguars select Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue

The plethora of talent from the DE position holds true with the selection of Kerrigan from the Boilermakers. An athletic smooth mover, Kerrigan, will help specifically with pressure on the quarterback, as well as add versatility to the defensive scheme. If I’m going to miss, I’m going to swing after a guy with a motor like Ryan’s. NK

17. The New England Patriots select Cameron Jordan, DE, California

The Pats will enter this draft looking to improve along the front seven and Jordan will give them a boost on the outside to pair with a healthy Ty Warren. When you factor in space eater Vince Wilfork the Patriots should be very stout against the run. Not a true sack master, Jordan has excellent intangibles and does everything well, a perfect fit for a Bill Belichick coached team and an excellent value in the middle of the first round. JA

18. The San Diego Chargers select Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple

Wilkerson is a beast and will go to some team looking for a 3-4 defensive end in this draft. He may not have that big school pedigree, but when you watch him play the game, you certainly see how impressive the young man is. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s gone by this pick, but if he’s still on board, the Chargers will pounce at the chance to improve their defensive line at #18. LL

19. The New York Giants select Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

If you ask the draftniks which offensive lineman has the most upside, 3 out of 4 will tell you that Colorado’s Nate Solder is the guy. I know that Mike Pouncey has great name recognition, and that he may be the more versatile of any 1st round lineman, but I think Solder’s upside at #19 is quite the steal for a team without many holes. The Giants could go a lot of directions with this pick, but I see them improving their offensive line, a position that has gotten old over the years – when you’re not talking about cheese or wine, aged isn’t a good thing. PW

20. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado

Tampa Bay keeps it in Colorado selecting another Buffalo in Jimmy Smith. Smith has the size speed and athleticism to make it at the next level. Jimmy’s past run in with the law has spawned character issues, and is the main reason why Smith is still on the board at 20. The Bucs will take the risk. NK

21. The Kansas City Chiefs select Gabe Carimi, OT, Boston College

The Chiefs certainly have needs, like any team, but it’s easy to see how much better they are when Matt Cassel gets time. He’s a very accurate passer when he’s not rushed, and Carimi would just add one more piece to an impressive offensive attack that produced the best rushing attack in football, and a solid passing game that saw KC in the playoffs in 2010. JA

22. The Indianapolis Colts select Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois

Liuget is probably the best player that people know the least about coming into this draft. I’m not sure he’s going to slip this far in the real world, because he’s really good. Not only is he very quick on the line, solid against the run, and able to rush the quarterback, but the DT from Illinois has a great motor. It’s tough to find big talented bodies that give the effort he does. The Colts are usually in the business of going offensive line with this pick, but a little help on the defensive side of the ball could go a long way. Liuget is a Top 15 talent, and thus his value at a spot of need is too good to pass up, here. LL

23. The Philadelphia Eagles select Mike Pouncey, OG/C, Florida

The Eagles could be bummed if the draft goes like it did in our mock. They waited and waited and had 2 great fits left with just 2 teams to pick ahead of them, and whammy, both guys get drafted before it’s their turn on the clock. Carimi could really help an Eagles team that needs to get better on the offensive line (especially OT). Liuget would have been a steal for a team like Philly, looking to get more beasts of burden on the defensive line. As is, both those guys are gone, so I think the Eagles should go get Mike Pouncey. Pouncey is the type of guy that immediately upgrades your offensive line, because he can fit at multiple spots. He’s not a stud OT, but will be a really good player at either center or guard, and building your line with a piece like that is perfect. I do think Jake Locker is an interesting fit here, and the Eagles may consider it. I’ve never been crazy about Locker’s jitters in the pocket or just the way he looks player quarterback, but the Eagles could be without Kolb, and Vick isn’t a tadpole, either, he’s in his 30s and the way he plays, health isn’t a guarantee. The Eagles did well improving Vick’s accuracy, and Locker has the arm and athleticism that Andy Reid seems to love in his quarterbacks. That would be a huge surprise here, but I’m wouldn’t be stunned at all. Still, I think Pouncey’s the pick if I’m on the clock. PW

24. The New Orleans Saints select Justin Houston, OLB/DE, Georgia

The Saints needs are clearly highlighted on the defensive board. The need help on the defensive line, as well as speed in the secondary. With a strong showing at the combine, Houston makes himself a legitimate first round pick. Justin’s hybrid ability to play standing up allows for support on the edge as well as the ability to rush the QB. If Ingram some how slips to this position, even with all of the needs on the defensive side you might see Peyton go for a steady ball carrier, where the Saints will again be chasing points opposed to zeros. NK

25. The Seattle Seahawks select Jake Locker, QB, Washington

I don’t know that this is a match made in heaven but I do know that Carroll recruited Locker hard while at USC then had a front row seat to the QBs athleticism for the next three years. I think there are a lot of areas Locker needs to improve upon, but I also know his toughness, leadership and work ethic are second to none on this class. A year or two to study under Hasselbeck would do his career a world of good, allowing him to grow more comfortable in a pro offense as well as giving him time to hone his accuracy and pocket presence. JA

26. The Baltimore Ravens select Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA

One wonders if the Ravens could steal Aldon Smith here, despite him not really having a perfect fit in their defense. He doesn’t have the size to be an End anchor in that 3-4, and I don’t know if he has the athleticism to be even a OLB that rushes the passer more often than not. I just don’t think he fits. I think the Ravens go for Akeem Ayers here, to do the same kind of thing they tried to draft Sergio Kindle to do last year. Everyone hopes Kindle gets healthy again, but a young stud athlete that moves around the field very well – seems like a good move for an aging Ravens defense. Ayers is only falling because of some sub-par numbers at the combine, but he’s really good at football – that should count for something. Corner here might be an option, as I still like Brandon Harris, Ras I Dowling, and Aaron Williams, but I think Ayers potential upside, and his great value, is too much to pass up. LL

27. The Atlanta Falcons select Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa

This kid is a stud. He has some issues with his shoulder, a nerve condition, but he’s been tough and solid throughout his career. He’s not a “best of the bunch” pass rusher, run defender, or numbers guy – but he’s an NFL starter right out of the gate because he does everything well. Not okay, but well. He only had 4 sacks in 2010 after tallying 11 in 2009, but he was still one of the best defenders on a great defense in the Big 10. I think Clayborn is a great value pick here, and the Falcons could definitely use some punch at DE. PW

28. The New England Patriots select Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri

Already selecting a defensive end to man the 3-4 spot with the 17th pick, New England can afford to go elsewhere with this decision. There are still a ton of really talented options on the board, guys that certainly have 1st round ability, but I’m not sure there’s a guy that really fits what the Patriots need desperately, Randy Moss in his prime. Since there’s not a guy like that in draft, and the closest thing to that will get picked in the top 5. I think the Patriots grab talented depth at a key spot, the line. They could go for Derek Sherrod here, a talented OT, maybe even a guard like Danny Watkins – but I think they head over to the defensive side of the ball and pick upside with Aldon Smith. Guy is a freak physically, and while he hasn’t played OLB much, and certainly isn’t refined coming in, the Patriots could really use his tools at that position. Smith is a Top 15 talent and a steal here. NK

29. The Chicago Bears select Derek Sherrod

The Bears need to take the best offensive lineman on the board if indeed there is one of top tier guys. Sherrod is a solid guy that would instantly improve one of the weakest links on a good Bears squad. Aldon Smith might be the pick here, if he’s available, but a very good defense doesn’t have as much need to improve as their sieved of an offensive line. JA

30. The New York Jets select Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor

The Jets need a nose tackle to crush up the running game in the middle, and provide a physical force inside that can eat up blockers so the linebackers and pass rushers get a chance to make plays against single coverage. The Jets had a great player on their roster, Kris Jenkins, but the big man just couldn’t stay on the field, and a great player on paper doesn’t mean much during the playoffs. This team is very good, and a couple key players away – a big, bad defensive nose-tackle could be that guy. LL

31. The Pittsburgh Steelers select, Brandon Harris, CB, Miami

The Steelers have a stud defense in the front 7, and they are solid in the secondary – they just need more speed and coverage ability on the corners. Harris has plenty of speed, and he measures out as a great athlete. He has good ball skills and he’ll immediately give the Steelers another body in the secondary, something they desperately need. Help on the offensive line is always an option, and a guard like Danny Watkins would be a good move, but they can get a good guard later and a very solid corner prospect right now. That seems like the best option. PW

32. The Green Bay Packers select Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State

How do the rich keep getting richer? Like this. Cameron Heyward has some medical issues, he had Tommy John surgery on his elbow, and somehow that scares off everyone else in the first round except the Super Bowl Champs. It’s not like Heyward is going to be throwing 60 yard bombs or 30 yard outs, not for the Packers – they have Aaron Rodgers to do that type of work, and if he gets hurt, Matt Flynn ain’t bad either. Heyward will be fine holding his own as a 3-4 DE for the Packers, and the rich get richer! NK

NFL Week 16 Best Bets: Arses Free Picks 2010

Top 5 NFL Free Picks: Week 16 NFL Predictions

So… I was just 2-3 last week and here I am, two weeks to go, 15 weeks in the bank, up a measly $74… It’s like playing a penny slot machine, folks, and I’m UP!!! Unbelievable. Well, with two weeks to go I’m going to take a chance or two. What does that mean? That means -105 or -110 is for the lower 48 – not me folks, I’m an Alaskan. And true to my people, I’m rocking chances. I’m here to gamble. (Please let this not be a lesson…)

Starting Account Total: $1000
At Risk This Week: $500 to Win $885
Money Left: $1074 with $500 of that on the line
Total W/L Last Week: (2-3)
Season W/L Record – Individual Games: (39-31-4)

Week 15 Picks Review

Cleveland Browns (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (WIN)
Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ HOME VS Washington Redskins (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (Loss)
Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) @ Carolina Panthers (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (Loss)
New Orleans Saints (+1.5) @ Baltimore Ravens(Bet $100 to WIN $95) (Loss)
Atlanta Falcons (-6) @ Seattle Seahawks (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (WIN)

Get at me on TWITTER @AlaskanArse. Here’s a link to Week 1′s article if you need a little more explanation of the way I’m keeping track.

Here are Week 16′s picks and bets:

San Francisco 49ers (+125) @ St. Louis Rams (Bet $100 to WIN $125)
I’ve been a big supporter of the Ram-rods all year. They’re a solid team and they’ve played above their talent level and experience all season long. That being said, they’ve dropped the ball lately and the best team in this game is San Francisco. Sure, they know how to lose, but I’m gambling here, and the best team plus money is too much to pass up.

Washington Redskins (+250) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $100 to WIN $250)
The Jaguars aren’t that good. Maurice Jones-Drew, the height-challenged running back with two last names in which the Jaguars have piggy-backed all the way to a possible playoff spot, is (from what I hear) out for this game. The Redskins looked like a new team with Rex Grossman at quarterback. I don’t know if I’m feeling great, but for +250 I like my odds.

Seattle Seahawks (+245) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $100 to WIN $245)
I’m going against my money-making Bucs to take a Seahawks team that got throttled by a team that barely beat Tampa twice this season. But this game will be different, and quite honestly, the Hawks defense played pretty well last week against Atlanta. Pete Carol’s always gotten his teams to play up in big games, and this is big for the Hawks. I feel a little wishy-washy about this one, but I’M HERE TO GAMBLE!

New York Giants (+145) @ Green Bay Packers (Bet $100 to WIN $145)
Oh, it’s over for the Packers. Sorry cheese-heads, lie I can’t. At 8-6 and living the “decimated by injuries” dream makes this a tough one even at home. The Giants have to feel like they “let ‘em off the hook” last week. They still have a playoff shot, and a chance to prove they’re worthy – this is a great game for them to assert a little dominance. Or they lose and I get to smile at the misfortune of Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning – either way, I’m golden.

New Orleans Saints (+120) @ Atlanta Falcons (Bet $100 to WIN $120)
The Saints should win this game – they need it more than the Falcons, and they’ll probably get it. I just think they are better defensively than Atlanta, regardless of what numbers tell us. That has to count for something, my gut, right?

NFL Best Bets for Week 15: Arses Picks 2010

Top 5 NFL Free Picks: Week 15 NFL Predictions

Just like Lucky Lester, I pushed in Week 14. It was the ultimate push, a tie record for the week and an actual push. Unlike Lucky, I’m okay with a push. I had the entertainment of rooting for my lotto ticket to come through, had some heart breaks and last minute saves, and ended up losing $10 for the week. That’s damn near the same amount of money it costs to wash your car, in quarters, at a self-serve car-wash. What is the world coming to? Luckily for me I live in Alaska, and if I washed my car my sponge would stick to the window, as would my hand, and I would die via moose. I plug my car in at night and it’s not an electric car, that’s how F’d my world is right now. So why not win some money, here’s what I like this week…

Starting Account Total: $1000
At Risk This Week: $500 to Win $475
Money Left: $1184 with $500 of that on the line
Total W/L Last Week: (2-2-1)
Season W/L Record – Individual Games: (37-28-4)

Week 14 Picks Review

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Tennessee Titans (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (Loss)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (PUSH)
New England Patriots (-3) @ Chicago Bears (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (WIN)
Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Houston Texans (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (WIN)
Green Bay Packer (-6) @ Detroit Lions (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (Loss)

Get at me on TWITTER @AlaskanArse. Here’s a link to Week 1′s article if you need a little more explanation of the way I’m keeping track.

Here are Week 15′s picks and bets:

(All games this week are Bet $100 to WIN $95)

Cleveland Browns (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Colt McCoy is back in leading the show, and that’s always a good bet to cover in my humble opinion. When you add in the lose-happy, blame-game Bengals to the fray, your odds skyrocket. The Browns are still anemic offensively, but they can do just enough to oust the Bungles.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) @ HOME VS Washington Redskins
The Redskins are bad. Dallas has, at the very least, been competitive against every team they’ve faced since JG took over as the head coach. I think Dallas can attack down the field a little more in this one, and Washington is bad everywhere, which makes most things easier. I like the Cowboys by a couple touchdowns.

Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) @ Carolina Panthers
Arizona is bad, Carolina is worse. I don’t specifically know how, except that the Cardinals can still make big plays on the football field. Carolina is just hoping they can run it into field goal position.

New Orleans Saints (+1.5) @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens don’t have enough offense to get the Saints – at least they don’t have enough consistency to break away from New Orleans. If it’s close, the nod has to go to Drew Brees and his gold-domed friends. Flacco is solid, but Brees is still Brees, and the Saints can make huge plays on both sides of the ball.

Atlanta Falcons (-6) @ Seattle Sehawks
Friends don’t let friends bet on the Seahawks. Friends try to convince friends to bet against the Seahawks. With one of the best teams in the NFL in town, that home field advantage can go right down the flusher. Through the air, on the ground, defensively, everywhere the Falcons are better.

Week 14 NFL Underdogs: Papas Free Picks 2010

Papa’s Picks: Top 5 2010 NFL Week 14 Underdogs

The Steelers (barely), Broncos (easily), and the Bengals (in true Bengal-fashion) all came through (against the spread, anyway) to assure a winning week for me in Lucky #13. The other teams, well, the Bucs did their best to keep it close but failed to cover by a point, and the Jets went into New England and everyone saw what Hard Knocks can also mean. Still, 3-2 ain’t bad. Just adding to my elitist record as the season mulls on. Here’s who I like this week.

Week 14 Free Picks

Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers:  As I reiterated last week, “The Bengals sure can find ways to lose” but like I also said, they play plenty close to the best of teams. With nearly 10 points on their side, I think they can limit the damage – and ready for this, I think they will win. But I’m still taking the points – I mean, these are the Bengals we’re talking about, here.

Chicago Bears (+3) @ HOME VS New England Patriots: I’m giving the Patriots a chance to get me twice in consecutive weeks and make me look bad. I’m giving them a chance because they are bound to come back to earth a little bit and the Bears are one heck of a great defense with an offense taking fewer chances and producing fewer turnovers – which is good.  I don’t like Chicago, think they’ll stumble when it counts, but they are playing at home and they could give Tom a tough time in this one.

Seattle Seahawks (+5) @ San Francisco 49ers: I know the Seahawks aren’t good – hell, they are bad and wouldn’t have 4 wins if they played outside of the NFC West, but you know who has been worse? San Francisco. At the very least, the 49ers won’t beat up on the Hawks, with Seahawk killer Frank Gore out of the line-up, it’s going to be a close one. I’ll do what friends don’t let friends do and bet the Hawks.

Carolina Panthers (+8) @ HOME VS. Atlanta Falcons: Oh the Falcons have been very good, but they’ve played too many close games, even against a couple teams in the Panthers’ realm of badness (in the realm, not equal to). I’ve seen the Panthers get a little better over the last few weeks, and now with a running game that’s going and Clausen not playing too terribly, well, I’m giving them a chance to compete in this one. I’ll never push this luck again.

Houston Texans (+3) @ HOME VS Baltimore Ravens:  Crazy? Maybe – but the Texans are a solid football team that does their best defensive work against the run, and can do it all offensively. I think they score points on the Ravens, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they won on Monday Night against the big bad Ravens.

Top 5 NFL Picks: Arses Picks Week 13 2010

Top 5 NFL Free Picks: Week 13 NFL 2010 Predictions

My family flew up to visit me for the Thanksgiving Holiday, that was nice. The NFL picks, not so nice. My brother also had trouble fighting through the darkness, he sleep-walked into my closet and pooped on my extra pillow. Somebody actually pooped on my pillow. I wasn’t mad, just amazed. It was amazing. So I lost a bunch of dough and the poop thing. On the bright side (there is no bright side in Alaska in the winter, it’s more like the dusk side) it is a degree up here, so the poop was basically frozen before it touched down, making clean up a snap! Everything else was peachy. This week, I’m trying to make my money back, and suddenly, as I write that, I feel like a true gambler. Busted….

Starting Account Total: $1000
At Risk This Week: $500 to Win $475
Money Left: $914 with $500 of that on the line
Total W/L Last Week: (1-3-1)
Season W/L Record – Individual Games: (31-25-3)

Week 12 Picks Review

New Orleans Saints (-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (PUSH)
Green Bay Packers (+2) @ Atlanta Falcons (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (Loss)
Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) @ Washington Redskins (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (WIN)
Cleveland Browns (-10) @ HOME vs. Carolina Panthers (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (Loss)
Arizona Cardinals (+1) @ HOME vs. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $100 to WIN $95) (Loss)

I was doused in frozen pooh this week, or my pillow was – but I’m still funny so you can keep track of me on TWITTER @AlaskanArse. I’ll update my thoughts on games, my picks and fantasy observations alike. Here’s a link to Week 1′s article if you need a little more explanation of the way I’m keeping track.

Here are Week 13′s picks and bets.

(All games this week are Bet $100 to WIN $95)

Chicago Bears (-3) @ Detroit Lions
Honestly, no Shaun Hill, no Matthew Stafford, Jahvid Best walking without functioning toes, what the hell is Detroit going to do to score? Have Calvin Johnson take the snap, roll out to the right, and throw the damn thing to himself? Sorry, against the Cardinals, maybe, but against the Bears? Even with Chicago having to fall down from their perfect game last week, three points seems like a must, right? Right?

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals
I know that the Bengals have had some tough luck this year, but most of that “luck” is a mix of bad ju-ju and a giant lack of consistency. The Bengals can’t run, Palmer can’t be accurate, he’s like a drunk mammal without thumbs throwing darts. Bad. The Saints should turn the Bengals over, not 1 or 2 times, completely, they will be the Cincinnati Turnovers, and they will have a mascot that looks like a pastry.

Green Bay Packers (-8.5) @ HOME VS. San Francisco 49ers
Those silly 49ers think they can beat up on the Cardinals then compete with the likes of Green Bay? Please… I watched the game, and the 49ers made way too many “bad team” mistakes. Green Bay is a good team, they are going to gobble those mishaps right up.

St. Louis Rams (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals
Getting screwed by the Cardinals felt like my own fault. How could I pick a team with Derek Anderson starting at QB, no running game to speak of, and Matt Leinart with a giant Ken Whisenhunt voodoo doll and all the needles a guy can ask for without getting a bunch of points? Seriously, Matt Leinart would have the Cardinals in first place in the West right now. I kid you not. As for this one, the Rams are mediocre but getting better. The Cardinals are bad. Real bad. And as long as Matty Trojan has the needle, they’re getting worse.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons are a very good team, maybe the best in the NFC, and they are feeling it. While the Bucs are a hard team to beat, a team that makes you beat the, I think the Falcons are up to the task. They have it all right now, and I don’t think the Bucs can crack them.

Top 5 NFL Free Picks: Arses Picks Week 10 NFL 2010

Top 5 NFL Free Picks: Week 9 NFL 2010 Predictions

“Parlays are crap.” That’s just a little quote from last week’s article, that, with all do respect, I’ll probably be back to uttering next week. But, this week, I’m trying out a new strategy. I see some numbers I really like out there, and I figure hey, maybe I can take all the combinations of five bets in three-game-parlays and make way more money than I ever could have betting all the games by themselves. This is what I call “Parlayapalooza… The mad-scientist approach.” Yes, I’m quoting myself these days – and I think the old Parlaypalooza system is going to catch on, especially when I document it’s success in front of thousands. I still have five picks, so if you’re not completely nuts like me, you’ll be good just betting those games and being safe and sound. It’s gotten me 57% thus far, 3-2 last week, and I’m up $334 on the season.

Starting Account Total: $1000
At Risk This Week: $500 to Win $2795
Money Left: $1334 with $500 of that on the line
Total W/L Last Week: (3-2)
Season W/L Record – Individual Games: (24-18-2)

Week 9 Picks Review
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9) @ Atlanta Falcons (Risk $100 to Win $95) (WIN)
New England Patriots (-4.5) @ Cleveland Browns (Risk $100 to Win $95) (Loss)
New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers (Risk $100 to Win $95) (WIN)
New York Jets (-3.5) @  Detroit Lions (Risk $100 to Win $95) (Loss)
Indianapolis Colts (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (Risk $100 to Win $95)(WIN)

Remember, You can also keep track of me on TWITTER @AlaskanArse. I’ll update my thoughts on games, my picks and fantasy observations alike. Here’s a link to Week 1′s article if you need a little more explanation of the way I’m keeping track.

Here are Week 9′s picks and bets.

Minnesota Vikings (pk) @ Chicago Bears
You may ask me how I believe in the Vikings – I don’t – I just think the Bears offense really sucks and Brett has to have enough magic left in his water pistol to make a victory happen. Better yet, the Vikings defense just has to show up and catch the interceptions Jay is going to throw – they can’t drop them – if they do that, one win is guaranteed!

Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ HOME VS. Seattle Seahawks
The Cardinals are bad, but I think the Hawks are worse – right now anyway. Seattle’s offensive line is hurting, but even more, their everything else is also inflamed. If they can’t stop the other team, there’s no way they can score enough to win football games.

St. Louis Rams (+6.5) @ San Francisco 49ers
This line is a joke. Any bum can see that. I’ll risk that the books don’t know something that I don’t.

Tennessee Titans (-1) @ Miami Dolphins
The Titans get to go up against a Dolphins team rocking an identity change – but unless Pennington found his arm strength while watching the Dolphins play without him, I don’t think the Titans will find it harder to stop the Fins. Chad can’t throw very far, so the Titans have to worry about less. Seems like a Titans win to me.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @  Washington Redskins
The Eagles are better than Washington. The Eagles lost to Washington already this season. Mike Vick will likely be healthy for the entire game this time – that is bad news for Washington. Odds are the Eagles and Redskins split their season series. I like the odds.

The Bets – Parlaypalooza Time!

Parlay 1: Vikes to cover (-2), Titans to cover (-1), Cardinals to cover (-1)
Parlay 2: Vikes to cover (-2), Titans to cover (-1), Eagles to cover (-3)
Parlay 3: Cardinals to cover (-1), Eagles to cover (-3), Rams and the points (+6)
Parlay 4: Rams and the points (+6), Eagles to cover (-3), Vikes to cover (-2)
Parlay 5: Titans to cover (-1), Cardinals to cover (-1), Rams and the points (+6)

Each bet is for $100 to win $559 – Let the dream live! If I land just one of the parlays, well, I’m up on the week – 2 wins and I hit it big, if all my teams win, well, I make $2795… Free heat all winter in Alaska! Big money, big money!

NFL Top 5 Underdogs Picks: Papas Football Picks Week 10 2010

Papas Picks: Top 5 2010 NFL Week 10 Underdogs

3-1-1 in Week 9 – you bet, made up for that 2-3 in Week 8 and then some. I don’t have my record right off hand, but I’m telling you, I’ve been killing it this season and there’s no way anybody in the site as a record matching my win-percentage. I know Lucky picks every game, and he does a hell of a job with that impossible situation, but winning is winning and I’ve been doing a lot of that. How many times do I have to tell ya? It’s all about the UNDERDOGS!!! Here’s 5 more dogs for your sports betting pleasure!

Week 10 Free Picks

Chicago Bears (+1) @ HOME VS.Minnesota Vikings:  I’m going back to the well here – the Vikings keep getting favored like they’ve done something with it. Please, they beat the Cardinals in overtime. When we discuss games here in LL.com-land, we still can’t understand what all the fuss is about. Cardinals, in overtime – get over it! The Bears are tough at home, and they have enough to beat the Vikings if Minnesota doesn’t play well. When have they played well again?

Detroit Lions (+3) @ Buffalo Bills: The Lions are way better than you think. They’ve been tough every week. The QB issues scare me a little, but then I feel better because they are playing the Bills. The Bills know how to lose, even though they are playing solid football. Anyone with points against Buffalo seems like a great deal, even if the game is played in lovely Buffalo.

Cleveland Browns (+3.5) @ HOME VS. New York Jets: Oh the Jets will have trouble with Hillis, everyone does. Colt McCoy has been very solid, and I imagine he’ll continue to be. I know the Browns don’t have much offensive firepower, but at home, getting a field goal plus, I think they are a solid bet with a very strong offensive line and a QB that doesn’t make painful mistakes.

Washington Redskins (+3.5) @ HOME VS. Philadelphia Eagles: The Redskins have already gotten the best of the Eagles once. Now they are at home, and I’ve seen Donovan step up his game after a situation like this before. I know Mike Vick has been awesome, but the Eagles don’t deserve 3+ points in Washington, the Redskins have been good enough defensively to be a good value at that spot.

Houston Texans (+2)@ Jacksonville Jaguars:  The Jaguars are bad. The Texans will prove that. I think Arian Foster is on pace for 200 yards already… Seriously.

Top 5 Free Picks: Papas Picks for NFL Week 9 2010

Papas Picks: Top 5 2010 NFL Week 9 Underdogs

I was just 2-3 last week, marking one of the few times I’ve lost a week this season. I still think I made some solid selections. Going against the Lions doesn’t look as good now that the Redskins lost, but Washington absolutely didn’t come to play in that game, which is evidenced by Ryan Torain’s 9 rushes for 10 yards. I took the Jags, seemed easy, it was. I had Tennessee, and I still like that one if Vince Young doesn’t fall down and sprain his left pinky toe-nail. What a baby. Miami just went to Cincinnati and kept the Bengals’ disappointing season going strong. And then I might have stretched it on the Vikings – but that game ended up being closer than it was moving. All in all – shoot, I lost a week – on to Week 9 and what looks like another profitable experience.

Week 9 Free Picks

Arizona Cardinals (+9) @ Minnesota Vikings:  Just based on Brad Childress being a numskull, and now a lame-duck coach, and the Vikings horrendous record this season, and their inability to rush the passer or complete drives- just based on those things, I’ll take any team and 9 points, even the hapless Cardinals.

Indianapolis Colts (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles: You probably can’t remember me picking the Colts as an underdog ever, well, that’s because they’re always favored. Anytime I get points and Peyton, I do my best to get him on my ballot – if you can dig it? I know Lucky keeps telling me that Vick is going to stop the Colts from doing what they do defensively, and that should make a mediocre defense pretty bad, but I’m ignoring that little know-it-all.

Miami Dolphins (+5.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: 5.5 is a lot of points for a game that’s about to be separated by a field goal. These teams are actually very much the same – both have QBs that can get it done very well, and can look very bad – both have decent running games that were better the last couple years than they are this season. And both have very good defenses that don’t rate out as good as they are. Miami playin’ well on the road, I’ll take them.

Detroit Lions (+4.5) @ HOME VS. New York Jets: Call me lots of things, but I might be on to something here. The Lions can throw it, they can do it efficiently, and they have game breakers (not just Calvin Johnson, but Nate Burleson and Jahvid Best as well) – plus some solid guys that consistently help them move the ball, Brandon Petitgrew for one. They’re at home, they’ve been playing well, Stafford’s back and gunning – should be closer than you expect in New York.

Buffalo Bills (+3) @ HOME VS. Chicago Bears:  I will be happy when I’m right about this one. The Bills are ready to win, two OTs in a row, they played better than both of the teams they lost to, eventually that has to be a win – why not this week against Jay Turnover and the Teddy’s?

NFL UPSET OF THE WEEK

Houston Texans (+130) vs. San Diego Chargers

I’m going for less of a big risk this week, but I still think that if Arian Foster runs more than Schaub throws, the Texans beat the Colts – if only Kubiak could pull his head out far enough to see that. The funny thing is, he did it once. Anyway, this week the Texans try to get back on the saddle against San Diego, one of the real statistical anomalies in sports. #1 D, #1 O, 2-5 on the season. Crazy. I think they go to 2-6, because if they’ve been good at something, it’s playing to the level of their opponents and finding a way to lose.

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