New York Giants @ New England Patriots NFL SUPER BOWL Free Pick: I must say, it’s interesting that Vegas decided to favor the New England Patriots even after everyone and their mother saw how down the AFC was this year, how the Giants have won (basically) elimination games for the last month and a half, how the Giants are finally healthy where as all year they’ve been bothered by the injury bug, and how, just the opposite, key Patriots (like cult hero Gronk) are dinged going into the NFL’s Championship. That being said and well understood, I’m taking the Patriots as well, but I’m sure it has less to do with the facts and more to do with my facts.

Fact #1: Unless you have the strongest of feelings going the other way, you always bet against the team that should have lost last time they played. I know, many will say that both these teams should have lost the last time they laced up the cleats and strapped up their helmets, but at least Lee Evans didn’t drop the game winning touchdown with less than a minute left, he got it ripped out of his arms. Sure, Billy CUNdiff missed the game tier, the overtime headed blast from less than 40  yards out (chip shot by NFL standards), but overtime would have guaranteed nothing for a Ravens team that couldn’t run the ball all day. Regardless of how poorly Tom Terrific was playing, you’d have to give him and his Pats the nod as far as overtime chances. So, though it was close, I’m not qualifying the Pats as a team that should have lost last week. The Giants on the other hand, please. They got two muffed punt gifts that resulted in 10 points, and that pretty much clears it up. They should have lost, regardless of “how good they’re playing” (everyone).

Fact #2: Never bet against Tom Brady to win. Taking the Ravens at +2.5 is basically taking the Giants to win, and I just can’t do it, not against Tom, not when somehow the favorites (Patriots) are getting treated like the biggest underdog since, well, the Giants were when they upset the then-undefeated New England Patriots. I’ll add one more.

Fact #3: Don’t bet against Vegas for the Super Bowl. EVERYONE is taking the Giants. Higher public percentage. More money. More experts. It doesn’t stop. Even the Giants are gloating around like they are going to win. For the record, nobody does anything before the do it, and those that think they have often don’t. Write that down. The Giants big mouths just barely fit in their big face-masks which are trying to burst off their big helmets. I expect Tom to be great. I expect it to be a little lopsided early. I expect the Patriots to hang on and win by a couple touchdowns. Yep, at least you know, I’m the one who’s taking the Patriots big. Two scores at least. 34-20.

New York Giants @ New England Patriots (-2.5)

New York Giants VS New England Patriots: Free Super Bowl Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on February 5, 2012. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ Houston Texans

This is not a sexy game by any means, even if it does have a very successful rookie quarterback trying to pitch a gem for the Bengals and another back-up late round rookie signal caller trying to save the Texans on the other side. Yates has been a nice find for the Texans after injuries thrust him into the starting role. For the most part he’s been safe and solid, keeping the Texans grounded and making plays in a handful of important situations. The Texans have one heck of a rushing game.

And Dalton has been a fairly prolific passer in his first season out of TCU. His first year numbers of 3,398 yards, 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, and 9 wins – make him a rare commodity in the NFL. Rarely do rookies produce at such a consistent and high level – especially red-heads…. Errr…. I mean quarterbacks. He doesn’t have a chance at rookie of the year (see Cam Newton), but quarterbacks are often judged by winning games and passing accurately – Dalton looks like he’s going to be good enough to do both during his career.

With a couple rookie quarterbacks, this game is going to come down to the rushing attack for both teams. If the Bengals can run it a bit, and stop the Texans, they’ll win. But if Houston can continue to be successful on the ground, they’ll come out victorious.

The Bengals have a good enough rush defenses – and Dalton is better than Yates – plus I’m getting points with Cincinnati – I have to take them.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans: AFC Playoff Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on January 7, 2012. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) @ Seattle Seahawks
Tough for me to go with the Hawks, even in Seattle, after a performance like they put together last week against a decent but not great Browns defense. I mean, it was disgusting. I think Tarvaris Jackson coming back will help the Hawks a lot, but as good as I think he is (I’ve always liked him, look at the history if you want), I don’t know if he’s good enough to turn this Hawks offense into a productive one against a very good Bengals defense.
Also, the Bengals have a young signal caller with shiny read hair that is playing pretty good football of late, keeping mistakes to a minimum, and making reliable throws to keep defenses honest. A big key for his progress are his receiving options who are all big and fast cats. You look at AJ Green and tell me he’s not going to be great. He’s already doing great things. His size and speed and overall goodness is going to give the Hawks’ corners trouble. Jermaine Gresham is also very good and big and talented and again, going to make life tough on the Hawks. Simpson is also big. The Hawks struggle against big receivers. It’ll be close, but the Bengals by a field goal wouldn’t stun me.

Cleveland Browns (+9.5) @ San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are coming off some highs, no doubt, and they are playing good football under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. They’ll be good for a long time, that guy knows what he’s doing for sure. That being said, I think the Browns are a little better than advertised, and this line is the way it is because they are advertised as pretty bad football team. It’ll be close. Anytime perception is wrong, lines should be skewed. Write that down.

Free NFL Picks Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks, Browns @ 49ers originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on October 30, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.

The Dolphins are staring Andrew Luck right in the face, why hold up now?

Go for it, Dolphins, get your Stanford Luck uniforms right now, because you have a shot at one heck of a prospect in that kid. Just don’t screw it up! Don’t go accidentally winning football games that you should lose, and you should lose most of them. This is not one of the games you should even be close to accidentally winning – not at all.

Rex Ryan’s defense should be out for blood in this one as surely Matt Moore doesn’t post much of a threat to them as a distributor. Reggie Bush can make a big play on anyone and Daniel Thomas is a nice young rusher. The Jets, who are usually suspect at stopping the run, will be all-in at shutting down the Dolphins’ run game, because that’s the only game the Dolphins have.

Brandon Marshall’s hostile words earlier in the week can only pump up a loud mouth team like the Jets – don’t try to out-talk talkers, that only gets you a pissed off bear when you wake him up.

I think 7 points is a lot, but the Jets really haven’t played good football yet this season. They’re at home, on Monday Night, playing against a winless team – shoot – Monday Night is as good a time as ever to put a game together. I think they cover the touchdown.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (-7)

Monday Night Football Pick: Miami Dolphins VS New York Jets originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on October 17, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.

The Falcons have had an interesting run thus far, and Carolina, despite having just one win to their names, have played everybody tough. Cam Newton has shown that he’s the real deal, and now that he has a QB that can put the ball down the field, Steve Smith is pretty much dominating any secondary in his path. The Panthers might be able to run the football a little better against an Atlanta team that hasn’t done much to stop it all season. That being said, I still think the Falcons are a touchdown better than Carolina – at least in Atlanta. I’ll take Matt Ryan to play efficient football in this one. I’ll take Michael Turner to run and run and run against a defense that can’t stop a good run game. Falcons by a touchdown.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons Free Football Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on October 16, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons Sunday Night Football Pick: NFL Sunday Night Football on NBC has yet another great game, once against trumping anything Monday Night Football has to offer (though the Lions and Bears is looking like a lot of fun right now, maybe close to what NBC is putting out on Sunday). In this week’s showdown, the Falcons host the best team in football when Aaron Rodgers comes to town to battle the Falcons. The Packers are defending champs, they’re undefeated, they’ve looked like they’re on another level during the first 4 games of the season. The Falcons, who many expected to contend with the Packers in the NFC, haven’t been nearly as sharp. They are 2-0, but they truly are a couple plays away from being 0-4. They were down big to the Eagles and needed a Mike Vick injury to help their comeback in that game, and needed an off-side penalty and a last second missed field goal to beat the Seattle Seahawks last week. The Seahawks. Yep. Those Seahawks.

Still, the Falcons have tons of talent, and the type of players that could give Green Bay a lot of trouble. The Packers have given up a ton of passing yards (though some of that is because teams are always behind against Green Bay, and thus they aren’t trying to run out the clock by running the football). Matt Ryan will need to find Roddy White and Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez against the Packer defense. It should be a good one.

In the end, I think Aaron Rodgers is just too good and the Packers are the better team. Rodgers has a ton of weapons, and he’ll take whichever one you give him. It’s tough to bet against the Packers, even with a 5.5 point value pick like Atlanta is at home.

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons Sunday Night Football Pick originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on October 9, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Some more road teams covering? You betcha!!!

Cincinnati Bengals (+1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Bengals have been a lot better than I thought they’d be, and I guess that makes sense. They were so unlucky last year, losing so man close games, despite having terrible offensive performances week in and week out. This year they aren’t giving the ball away as much, and they are playing really well defensively. The Jaguars, they aren’t as good as they’ve shown, and what they’ve shown hasn’t been great. This is a match-up of two rookie quarterbacks, and I think Dalton is the guy more ready to lead his team to a win.

Seattle Seahawks (+10) @ New York Giants

I loved what I saw from the Hawks last week, at least in the 2nd half. Tarvaris Jackson still throws the ball a little late, but the up-tempo idea gives him a little more leeway, and he needs to have a little more control. He’s better than people think, and with the ability to escape some pressure, he could put up some good yardage against that shaky Giants secondary. I expect a close one, so the points are nice. I know, you’re calling me crazy right now – you might be right.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers

The Buccaneers sure know how to keep it close. I bet they continue that trend on the road against San Francisco. I also expect them to win a close one, so the 3 points are just added bonus points.

San Diego Chargers (-4) @ Denver Broncos

I’m not sure I’d ever bet the house on San Diego – they are a scary team to watch and bet on because you never know what you’re going to get. They always seem perfectly happy keeping it close and not taking huge chances – then again, they could come out and pass on 2nd and 7 late in the 4th, up a touchdown with 2 minutes to go. They are unpredictable. The one thing they do is settle for field goals a lot. That being said and well understood, I still like them against a Broncos team that doesn’t scare me much.

Week 5 2011 Free Football Predictions for the NFL originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on October 9, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.

Here is some reasoning behind my picks earlier in the week.

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings (-1)

The Vikings were a great deal at -1 playing a pretty mediocre/low level Cardinals team in Minnesota. The Vikings have played pretty well during most of the games they’ve played, but poor second half and 4^th quarter performances and some bad luck have really gotten them to a tough place. They need to run the ball more, but even if they throw it against Arizona, the Cardinals secondary just isn’t good enough to shut them down. Minnesota’s defense has been pretty decent, and Kevin Kolb has yet to impress. I think the Vikings are a great value.

Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

I can’t believe the Colts are favored against anybody. Curtis Painters throws a couple touchdown passes and all of a sudden the Colts can score? Please, Painter was 13-30 at one point, and I doubt he connects on 2 bombs per game with Pierre Garcon. His yardage comes down, his completion percentage stays the same, the Chiefs win in Indy.

Oakland Raiders (+6) @ Houston Texans

The Oakland Raiders have a good enough rushing attack to make the Texans commit defensively, and I think that will leave enough open for Jason Campbell to connect on some big plays with all that speed at receiver the Raiders have.  Without Andre Johnson, the Texans will play closer to the line of scrimmage – I think that keeps this one close. Al Davis’s death on Saturday morning certainly will have the league focused on this game.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers

The Saints are pretty good, and their blitz packages should give Cam Newton as much trouble as he’s had so far during his NFL career. Seems like a tough guy to stop, though, but I don’t think the Saints will need to stop him to win. The Panthers look like a good candidate to get carved up by Drew Brees – they are just too beat up defensively.

Free Football Picks for NFL Week 5 2011 originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on October 9, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.

San Francisco 49ers VS Philadelphia Eagles Free Pick & Preview: You can call it crazy, you can call it brilliant, you can call it anything you want, but I’m going to call it a hunch. Listen, I know the Eagles shouldn’t be favored by dang-near double digits against Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers, but they are. And I know the value bet is on the 49ers, but I’m not doing it. There’s value and then there’s hunches, and I’m playing on the side of hunches in this one.

My hunch tells me that the Eagles team is super talented, they put lots of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and they have defensive backs that can straight lock you down and take an interception right to the house. But what my hunch is really telling me is that they haven’t played one great game yet this year. You know what that means? They’re due.

So why not against a San Francisco 49ers team that hasn’t found their identity offensively yet? Why not a team that hasn’t gotten a good rush going, doesn’t have healthy receivers, and doesn’t really have a guy that can threaten the Eagles in the passing game outside of one tight end?

This is the game, I’m telling you – the Eagles are going to put it altogether and Michael Vick is going to start from kick-off to finish – where both of his receivers are going to play and be big time threats (here’s to you Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson) – where the Eagles are going to win 34-13.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5)

San Francisco 49ers VS Philadelphia Eagles Free Pick & Preview originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on October 2, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.

New York Giants (-1) @ Arizona Cardinals

I haven’t been real impressed with the Cardinals yet – I wonder if anybody saw this coming. Oh, I know, me. They should be better this week than they were last week, but big freaking deal, they lost to the Seattle last week, where’s down from there? Indy? The Giants should be able to sneak this out, at least. The Cardinals secondary is very questionable at best, and they are getting some key defensive linemen back this week (Osi and Tuck).

Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) @ Seattle Seahawks

Well the Hawks won last week – that should be the last time we see that in a while. They definitely won’t go on a winning streak, so we can write off them winning outright for sure. Can they play close enough to cover? Hmm… The Hawks secondary has played better, but they still have struggled a lot with tall receivers – so how should a trio-receiving-option of Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez do? Oh no, Hawks fan… Oh no.

Miami Dolphins (+8) @ San Diego Chargers

I just never think the Chargers are good enough to be giving 8 points. The Dolphins can throw the ball pretty well and the Chargers aren’t living large in any category. Antonio Gates is hurting so the Dolphins don’t have to worry about him torching them. Daniel Thomas is out, but that just means Reggie Bush will be in and the Dolphins will be throwing the ball every down. A shootout in San Diego? Sounds like fun.

Denver Broncos (+14) @ Green Bay Packers

I think the Packers defense hasn’t been good enough to give 14 points. It’s a value bet and nothing else. Every bet against the Packers is scary – but they don’t have much of a rushing attack and throwing the ball all the time has it’s drawbacks.

NFL Week 4 2011 Preview: Free Football Picks originally appeared on Lucky Lester Free Football Picks on October 2, 2011. Remember you can also Tweet This.