Minnesota Vikings VS New Orleans Saints NFC Championship Pick & Preview

So, I’m taking the Saints at -3.5 despite listing -2 as the line in my Just Picks Newsletter. I didn’t read the number right in the book where I got the line from, and it was indeed -2, but the payout was -150 or something like that. Currently you can get the Saints -1.5 at -172 at 5 Dimes, but I’ve never picked low payout lines like that, and -3.5 is a a normal payout at most books right now, so I’ll list that.

The Saints played their best football against their best opponents all season long. The Saints didn’t only win, but dominated the Eagles, Jets, Giants, and Eagles. They also beat a good Atlanta team twice, keeping the Falcons out of the playoffs. Oh, and while they did tumble a little bit down the final stretch of the regular season, (3 straight losses, 2 when they were playing their starters) I give them the benefit of the doubt after their dismantling of an Arizona team playing good football.

Minnesota has had a hell of a year, but I think the Saints are actually better on both sides of the ball. The secondary of the Saints has repeatedly made big plays that change the course of games, while Minnesota’s secondary relies heavily on that pass rush. New Orleans has one hell of an offensive line, and Drew Brees moves in the pocket and can release the ball at any moment of his escape – I think that neutralizes the Vikings elite pass rush a little bit, and I see that being the difference in the game. I’d love to see Brett get another crack at a Super Bowl, but unfortunately I don’t see it going that way.

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

New York Jets VS San Diego Chargers 2010 AFC Playoff Prediction

New York Jets VS San Diego Chargers 2010 AFC Playoff Prediction: What this game comes down to is my life long belief that you just don’t give good teams close to double digits and live to cover many football games. That’s what the Chargers have up against their side in this one, and while the number is dropping (down to 7 in a few places) I still think the Jets rushing attack and pressure defense should keep this one close. Sure, the Jets were the team that just barely go in my the hair on the Colts’ backup’s chins, but they are playing good football, as seen by their 6 wins over their last 7 games.

And it’s not like the Chargers always blow teams out, oh no they don’t. San Diego has won their last 11 games straight up, and down pretty well against the spread 7-3-1 during that stretch, but 7 of those wins were by 8 points or less, and 4 of those were by a field goal or less. They are very good, no doubt, but I got them giving 9 points, and that’s way too much. Like I said, the Jets are built to be a cover machine. Anything can happen, I mean, this is sport, but the Jets average almost twice as many rushing yards per game than the Chargers and the Jets secondary has been playing lights out. San Diego can bring pressure, but the Jets have one of the best offensive lines in football. These things spell cover, I’m telling you.

No team has been better than the Chargers since Week 6, but these are the playoffs, and while I can definitely see the Chargers winning outright, I see a very slim chance that this game is a blowout. In a game that I expect to be close whatsoever, I always will take 9 points. Long live the underdogs!

New York Jets (+9) @ San Diego Chargers

Baltimore Ravens VS Indianapolis Colts: AFC Divisional Playoffs Pick

As I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, I think Peyton and the Colts will find a way to win this game. And while only rarely do winning teams actually lose against the spread, I think this game will be one of those. The Ravens have everything you want in a touchdown cover team. They have a running game that runs roughshod over opponents, they have a defense that limits the opposing offenses opportunities, and they make big plays on both sides of the ball. Why do I think the Ravens will win? Well, they have Peyton Manning.

This game has already moved down to -5.5 at one book, and it’s slowly getting lower and lower everywhere else, as only one of the major books I “shop at” holds this game as the Colts favored by a touchdown. So far, 51% of the total bet coming in are on Baltimore to cover, but I see a couple books still show a huge public percentage taking the Colts, between 65 and 70% at some major books. With the spread shrinking and the public bet still staying close to 50%, I’m liking my Ravens pick.

The Ravens have only lost two games by more than 6 points, and their mid-season loss to the Colts wasn’t one of them, as they fell at home to Indy by just two points. They lost to Green Bay by 13 and Cincinnati by 10. And even those games were close. There are a lot of reasons to take the Ravens in this one, and at 7 points, they are always a safe bet.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts

Arizona Cardinals VS New Orleans Saints: NFL NFC Divisional Playoffs

How can the Cardinals play as well as they did last weekend? Kurt Warner almost had more completions than he did attempts, and that’s actually impossible. The Saints defense is tougher than it gets credit for, and though they will be missing their starting defensive end, as Grant’s out for the season, they will be as healthy as they’ve been in the secondary in a long time. That will play a big role in this weekend’s tilt with the Cardinals. Because, if I know anything, I know Captain Kurt will be winging that pigskin around.

The Saints lost their last 5 games against the spread and actually lost their final three games straight up. They were 8-8 ATS this season, just 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games, which means, yes, they were 6-0 ATS to start the season. Aside from their first loss of the season, in Dallas in Week 15, the Saints dominated playoff teams, beating the Eagles 48-22, the Jets 24-10, and the Patriots 38-17. The question is, which Saints team will show up? The team that dominated both sides of the ball during the first 13 games of the season or the team that held on for dear life in the last 3 games, two of which they were actually trying to win?

The Cardinals rarely put two solid games together all season long. They won a few big games against big time opponents (okay, they only playoff team they beat during the regular season was Minnesota) but most of their good wins were either surrounded by losses or followed by them. I expect the Saints to play their best football of the last 6 weeks, and I suspect that will be enough to beat a Cardinals team that won’t be on fire like they were last week.

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints (-7)

Green Bay Packers VS Arizona Cardinals NFC Wildcard Weekend Pick

Green Bay Packers VS Arizona Cardinals NFC Wildcard Weekend Pick: This is my favorite upset of the week, and it has been from the get go. However, looking at it now, it looks as though I’m not the only one picking the Packers to dismantle the Cardinals in Arizona this Sunday. 63% of the public betting on the spread like the Packers to cover, and those are the late numbers. Early percentages were so high that the books responded, moving this spread all the way to even in most sports books as I write this. I see experts taking the Packers at a 2 to 1 clip, and even ESPN’s Suomi likes Green Bay.

If Anquan Boldin were playing, the Cardinals would have one advantage in this football game, but with him out, the only thing the Cardinals have over the Packers is experience. Arizona made it all the way to the big show last season, playing just one home game, and falling just a few seconds short of taking home the title. But I don’t see that same Cardinals team this season. Arizona has been very inconsistent all season long, and there’s something about the Packers final half of the season that has me admiring their team.

The Packers lost just one game over the final half of the season, as a touchdown pass by Ben Roethlisberger as time expired in Pittsburgh gave the Steelers a 37-36 win. But outside of that, the packers have dominated. During those 8 games, the Packers handled 3 playoff teams, winning by a combined 77-28. Green Bay’s offense has impressed me all year, but it’s their growth in that 3-4 defense that gives them the nod here. Great corners against a less than full strength Cardinals receiving corps, and pass rushers galore -yeah, I like the packers.

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals

Baltimore Ravens VS New England Patriots: AFC Playoff Prediction

Baltimore Ravens VS New England Patriots, AFC Playoff Prediction: Like I said earlier in the week in my Just Picks newsletter, the Patriots rarely lose games against an opponent without an elite passing attack. Now, the Ravens are much better this season than they’ve been in years’ past, and Joe Flacco has definitely grown as a pro-quarterback in his sophomore season, but the Ravens are far from elite in the passing game.

In the running game, they are as scary, if not more-so than ever before. Ray Rice has transformed into one of the game’s most explosive rushing/receiving threats out of the backfield, and Willis McGahee has shown brilliant flashes of his old self when given the opportunity to run the ball. As an offensive line, the Ravens have dominated the line of scrimmage this season.

The question will be, can the Ravens keep up with the Patriots offense. And that depends which offense shows up. Already, the Patriots will be without their leading receiver this season, as Wes Welker and his 120+ receptions suffered a bad knee injury in the season finale and will likely be out into next season. But Julian Edelman is a good young player in the Welker mode, and it will likely come down to Tom Brady and the great quarterback’s accuracy. Tom has had his ups and downs this season, a year after shredding his own knee on opening day, and it’s been tough to predict which Brady will show up, and how consistent he’ll be from half to half.

But I like the Patriots in this one. They have an underrated defense, and especially in the run-D aspect of it. They are sure tacklers and have a plethora of sound tacklers. If Brady can find the same holes in the Ravens secondary that other elite passers have found, the Patriots should win and cover at home.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-3)

Philadelphia Eagles VS Dallas Cowboys: Wild Card Saturday Pick

Philadelphia Eagles VS Dallas Cowboys, Wild Card Saturday Pick: This is a tough one for me because either one of these teams can come out and drop a little nugget right down their collective pant legs, if you know what I mean. And while Dallas has proven their worth by smacking Philly twice already this season, on the road and at home, it’s hard for me to take the Cowboys as a 4 point favorite.

I’m not saying it doesn’t make sense, I’m just saying it’s tough for me to do it. The Cowboys have turned their “late season swoon” right around, winning their last three games, including handing the Saints their first loss of the season. But prior to the Dallas game, it was Philly playing like the best team in football, climbing from mediocre to a win away from a 1st round bye. What a difference a game makes, eh? Philly came out with no pop, got dominated on both sides of the ball, and now they are playing a first round game in Dallas as a 4 point underdog. Their biggest underdog spread of the season.

But that’s part of the reason I’m taking Philly. The spread is inflated because of the substantial beatdown Dallas put on the Eagles last week. The Cowboys are hardly the best team Philly has faced. Philly won 6 straight prior to losing in Dallas, and I don’t think there’s anyway the Eagles play as poorly as they did last week.

Now I’m throwing a little caution to the masses here, the Eagles have just one win all season long against a team with a winning record. And that team, Atlanta, didn’t make the playoffs at 9-7. Interesting, huh? I still like Philly, but be careful.

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys

New York Jets VS Cincinnati Bengals: AFC Wildcard Playoff Game Pick

I got this game when the Bengals were favored by just a single point, a little while after they opened at -4, and before the line moved by up to -3. Right now, you can find the line anywhere between the Bengals being favored by 2-3 points. And as the line has moved around with haste and ferocity, the public percentage has moved around as well. Right now, the Bengals are seeing about 61% of the bets, but the early money was on New York. Not that any of that stuff matters.

I wonder what this line would have been had the Bengals sat their starters for Sunday’s entire game. Even if the Jets had won easily, in that case, I think the Bengals would have been favored by a couple more points – but maybe not. Either way, it’s hard for me to put too much weight into one single game. The Bengals have played better with Cedric Benson running the ball. His strength and aggressiveness is a huge part of Cincinnati’s offense, and he’ll be back on the field this week, that should help the Bengals get things going. And while Cincinnati definitely got pushed around by the Jets solid run-defense, it’s hard for me to foresee that happening again this Sunday.

Both these teams are good, both are tough, and both bring it on both sides of the ball. The difference in these two teams is at quarterback where the Bengals have Carson Palmer and the Jets have a rookie, Mark Sanchez. That give the Bengals the advantage in my book. When you add that to the reality that Cincinnati played their worst football of the season last week in New York, and the Jets played one of their best all around games all season long, I think you get a Bengals victory at home. Extremes like that often have a way of evening themselves out. It’s tough to beat up a good football team twice in one year, let alone twice in one week.

New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1)

Cincinnati Bengals vs New York Jets Sunday Night Football

The Jets had some awesome luck going against the Colts in Week 16 (undefeated yet didn’t care enough about that to actually play their starters, basically feeding the Jets a must-have win) and now they get another team “resting up” for the playoffs when Cincinnati comes to town with absolutely nothing to gain from a win and nothing to lose from a loss. Lucky. And you know what they say, it’s better to be lucky than good.

And while I fully expect the Jets to win and all of a sudden take over the spot of “worst playoff team” I think it’s going to be close than double digits. The Bengals still have a solid offensive line and a bunch of young studs defensively. They can’t sit everyone, and you can bet those young guys will make some plays. Ten points is a lot for New York to outscore a good defensive team by, even if the starters play only a handful of snaps.

And the Bengals can run it. They will have Larry Johnson ready to take over for Cedric Benson when CB is ready to get his rest on, and that’s a pretty nice option to have for Bengals backers. This game is no guarantee, but I like it to be close – as Mark Sanchez will have a lot of pressure on his to succeed in this one, the playoffs rest on the rookie’s arm – no big deal, right?

Cincinnati Bengals (+10.5) @ New York Jets

Tennessee Titans vs Seattle Seahawks 03/01/2010 Prediction

Oh how the Hawks have fallen. Sheesh, I think Jim Mora should get an extension based on the damage he’s done. If he could turn these Hawks into the mush pile of confidence lacking maroons that they are playing like right now, well he can surely turn wine back into water, right? I mean, the guy has thrown multiple people under buses, has gotten very little out of a couple of the most talented guys in the league, and hasn’t changed the risk free offense that has been here for years. So, basically they aren’t consistent at all and they still don’t take any big chances – awesome. The best of no worlds.

But that’s not what’s important here, a little speedster by the name of Chris Johnson is the man of the day, and I have to be honest, I’m more excited to watch this game than any one of the “important playoff implication games”. Call me a fantasy football junky if you want, but I’m here to tell you, my interest in this game has no fantasy implications. Nope, I just like to see history.

Chris Johnson has a chance to rush for 2000 yards on the season, and even more amazingly, pass up Marshall Faulk’s all time single season yards from scrimmage record. That’s pretty cool. See, every year some teams go to the playoffs and some teams don’t. Some teams step up this time of year and some teams just pee down their collective legs – but that stuff always happens. What Chris Johnson is going to do in Seattle, well that will be the first time anybody’s ever done that – and that’s why I’m excited to see it. Do work Chris!

Tennessee Titans (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks

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