Green Bay Packers VS Kansas City Chiefs: NFL Free Pick

What can I say? I like what the Packers have done in the pre-season, not only with their first team (a group that won’t see much tick against the Chiefs) but with their second team as well. They have come in with that same aggressive approach, but with more running – and honestly, that’s what the starters should do to be more consistent – but that’s a coaching thing.

I like Matt Flynn, he’s been steady in the pre-season thus far, completing a high percentage of passes and keeping drives going by eliminating negative plays. He knows that one of his best weapons is going to be his running back, and Brandon Jackson has been running as good as ever. This team always drafts great, so they are stacked with talent – especially at receiver. If the 2nd string guys play a half, that’s two big time playmakers in James Jones and Jordy Nelson – there are teams that would trade their starters for those two guys straight up.

Defensively, the Packers might be a little shallow in this game – the starters won’t see much time, if any at all, and the team is hurting on that side of the ball a little anyway.

But that’s just thinking about the Packers – the Chiefs have been better, but they aren’t good. They are running the ball well, but KC’s quarterbacks just don’t take chances – that seems like a bad way to beat the Packers. KC is 0-3 so far this pre-season, and while they might give that extra effort to win a game (something they won’t do much of this season) – it’s hard for me to believe they’ll risk the health of their small speed-backs or Thomas Jones. So take their strength away and put them up against the Packs’ 2nd stringers. I don’t like their chances.

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Carolina Panthers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Preseason Week 4 Picks

I’m not real big on picking pre-season games, but for every single game ever played I’ve thought to myself, “Who has the best chance at winning?” Over the last handful of years I’ve changed from just winning to “how about that spread?” Even in the pre-season, I have an opinion – and rarely is it because one team is better than the other. If you pick the “better team” throughout the pre-season, you’ll likely be in the red before the regular season even starts. It’s week 4, a week where even fewer teams play their best players than usual. So I take that into account, here’s my thought process for picking the Steelers with a big spread.

The Steelers are the more aggressive team, both defensively and offensively, and the Panthers are pretty soft up front. Advantage Steelers.

This game will likely come down to who can run the ball and who can stop the ball. Pittsburgh doesn’t have an awesome run game, but it’s solid. The Panthers can’t stop the run. Advantage Pittsburgh.

The Panthers can run the ball as well as anyone, but… Neither of their stud RB tandem will play in this one, and the Steelers have always been great at shutting down their opponent’s rushing attack. Advantage Steelers.

The Steelers have Big Ben (who might very well play more than a series or two, because he might as well get his time in now seeing as though he’s going to miss 2-6 games to start the season because he was an idiot/jerk/moron/insert favorite expression), Dennis Dixon, and Byron Leftwich. All three are definitely capable.  The Panthers have Matt Moore, a rookie, and another guy you aren’t sold on. Me neither. None of those guys have the arm, confidence, or experience to make aggressive teams pay for being aggressive. Advantage Pittsburgh.

Yeah, I’ll take Pittsburgh.

Carolina Panthers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)

Buffalo Bills VS Detroit Lions: PreSeason NFL Free Pick

I like the Bills, because they are still trying to find their identity, and don’t have any stars to sit and rest before the regular season starts – they can’t be wasting time like that – so they’ll play their guys and covering a 4.5 in the pre-season when your starters are playing more snaps seems like a solid chance. Plus, the Lions are far from amazing.

Buffalo may have their starter figured out, and that is probably Trent Edwards, but it’s not like the position is his to keep forever – the Bills are a work in progress, and besides C.J. Spiller, they are probably willing to give everybody on their roster an extra look going into the pre-season. This is also a new coaching staff in Buffalo, so they need to use as much time as they are given to put in their new schemes. That’s just another reason to play your starters a little bit longer on Thursday Night.

The Lions have had a solid pre-season, seeing explosive football out of Jahvid Best, nice passing from the young sophomore quarterback, Matthew Stafford, and getting their WRs and TEs some solid looks. Defensively, the Lions have looked improved. They have some versatility in the front 7, and Mr. Suh looks to be every bit the stud they drafted #2 in this years’ draft.

I full expect the Lions to put up some points early, especially if the starters get a couple series – but the Bills will end up on top in this one, or at least covering that 5.5 point spread.

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Detroit Lions

Minnesota Vikings VS New Orleans Saints NFC Championship Pick & Preview

So, I’m taking the Saints at -3.5 despite listing -2 as the line in my Just Picks Newsletter. I didn’t read the number right in the book where I got the line from, and it was indeed -2, but the payout was -150 or something like that. Currently you can get the Saints -1.5 at -172 at 5 Dimes, but I’ve never picked low payout lines like that, and -3.5 is a a normal payout at most books right now, so I’ll list that.

The Saints played their best football against their best opponents all season long. The Saints didn’t only win, but dominated the Eagles, Jets, Giants, and Eagles. They also beat a good Atlanta team twice, keeping the Falcons out of the playoffs. Oh, and while they did tumble a little bit down the final stretch of the regular season, (3 straight losses, 2 when they were playing their starters) I give them the benefit of the doubt after their dismantling of an Arizona team playing good football.

Minnesota has had a hell of a year, but I think the Saints are actually better on both sides of the ball. The secondary of the Saints has repeatedly made big plays that change the course of games, while Minnesota’s secondary relies heavily on that pass rush. New Orleans has one hell of an offensive line, and Drew Brees moves in the pocket and can release the ball at any moment of his escape – I think that neutralizes the Vikings elite pass rush a little bit, and I see that being the difference in the game. I’d love to see Brett get another crack at a Super Bowl, but unfortunately I don’t see it going that way.

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

New York Jets VS San Diego Chargers 2010 AFC Playoff Prediction

New York Jets VS San Diego Chargers 2010 AFC Playoff Prediction: What this game comes down to is my life long belief that you just don’t give good teams close to double digits and live to cover many football games. That’s what the Chargers have up against their side in this one, and while the number is dropping (down to 7 in a few places) I still think the Jets rushing attack and pressure defense should keep this one close. Sure, the Jets were the team that just barely go in my the hair on the Colts’ backup’s chins, but they are playing good football, as seen by their 6 wins over their last 7 games.

And it’s not like the Chargers always blow teams out, oh no they don’t. San Diego has won their last 11 games straight up, and down pretty well against the spread 7-3-1 during that stretch, but 7 of those wins were by 8 points or less, and 4 of those were by a field goal or less. They are very good, no doubt, but I got them giving 9 points, and that’s way too much. Like I said, the Jets are built to be a cover machine. Anything can happen, I mean, this is sport, but the Jets average almost twice as many rushing yards per game than the Chargers and the Jets secondary has been playing lights out. San Diego can bring pressure, but the Jets have one of the best offensive lines in football. These things spell cover, I’m telling you.

No team has been better than the Chargers since Week 6, but these are the playoffs, and while I can definitely see the Chargers winning outright, I see a very slim chance that this game is a blowout. In a game that I expect to be close whatsoever, I always will take 9 points. Long live the underdogs!

New York Jets (+9) @ San Diego Chargers

Baltimore Ravens VS Indianapolis Colts: AFC Divisional Playoffs Pick

As I said in my Just Picks Newsletter, I think Peyton and the Colts will find a way to win this game. And while only rarely do winning teams actually lose against the spread, I think this game will be one of those. The Ravens have everything you want in a touchdown cover team. They have a running game that runs roughshod over opponents, they have a defense that limits the opposing offenses opportunities, and they make big plays on both sides of the ball. Why do I think the Ravens will win? Well, they have Peyton Manning.

This game has already moved down to -5.5 at one book, and it’s slowly getting lower and lower everywhere else, as only one of the major books I “shop at” holds this game as the Colts favored by a touchdown. So far, 51% of the total bet coming in are on Baltimore to cover, but I see a couple books still show a huge public percentage taking the Colts, between 65 and 70% at some major books. With the spread shrinking and the public bet still staying close to 50%, I’m liking my Ravens pick.

The Ravens have only lost two games by more than 6 points, and their mid-season loss to the Colts wasn’t one of them, as they fell at home to Indy by just two points. They lost to Green Bay by 13 and Cincinnati by 10. And even those games were close. There are a lot of reasons to take the Ravens in this one, and at 7 points, they are always a safe bet.

Baltimore Ravens (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts

Arizona Cardinals VS New Orleans Saints: NFL NFC Divisional Playoffs

How can the Cardinals play as well as they did last weekend? Kurt Warner almost had more completions than he did attempts, and that’s actually impossible. The Saints defense is tougher than it gets credit for, and though they will be missing their starting defensive end, as Grant’s out for the season, they will be as healthy as they’ve been in the secondary in a long time. That will play a big role in this weekend’s tilt with the Cardinals. Because, if I know anything, I know Captain Kurt will be winging that pigskin around.

The Saints lost their last 5 games against the spread and actually lost their final three games straight up. They were 8-8 ATS this season, just 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games, which means, yes, they were 6-0 ATS to start the season. Aside from their first loss of the season, in Dallas in Week 15, the Saints dominated playoff teams, beating the Eagles 48-22, the Jets 24-10, and the Patriots 38-17. The question is, which Saints team will show up? The team that dominated both sides of the ball during the first 13 games of the season or the team that held on for dear life in the last 3 games, two of which they were actually trying to win?

The Cardinals rarely put two solid games together all season long. They won a few big games against big time opponents (okay, they only playoff team they beat during the regular season was Minnesota) but most of their good wins were either surrounded by losses or followed by them. I expect the Saints to play their best football of the last 6 weeks, and I suspect that will be enough to beat a Cardinals team that won’t be on fire like they were last week.

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints (-7)

Green Bay Packers VS Arizona Cardinals NFC Wildcard Weekend Pick

Green Bay Packers VS Arizona Cardinals NFC Wildcard Weekend Pick: This is my favorite upset of the week, and it has been from the get go. However, looking at it now, it looks as though I’m not the only one picking the Packers to dismantle the Cardinals in Arizona this Sunday. 63% of the public betting on the spread like the Packers to cover, and those are the late numbers. Early percentages were so high that the books responded, moving this spread all the way to even in most sports books as I write this. I see experts taking the Packers at a 2 to 1 clip, and even ESPN’s Suomi likes Green Bay.

If Anquan Boldin were playing, the Cardinals would have one advantage in this football game, but with him out, the only thing the Cardinals have over the Packers is experience. Arizona made it all the way to the big show last season, playing just one home game, and falling just a few seconds short of taking home the title. But I don’t see that same Cardinals team this season. Arizona has been very inconsistent all season long, and there’s something about the Packers final half of the season that has me admiring their team.

The Packers lost just one game over the final half of the season, as a touchdown pass by Ben Roethlisberger as time expired in Pittsburgh gave the Steelers a 37-36 win. But outside of that, the packers have dominated. During those 8 games, the Packers handled 3 playoff teams, winning by a combined 77-28. Green Bay’s offense has impressed me all year, but it’s their growth in that 3-4 defense that gives them the nod here. Great corners against a less than full strength Cardinals receiving corps, and pass rushers galore -yeah, I like the packers.

Green Bay Packers (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals

Baltimore Ravens VS New England Patriots: AFC Playoff Prediction

Baltimore Ravens VS New England Patriots, AFC Playoff Prediction: Like I said earlier in the week in my Just Picks newsletter, the Patriots rarely lose games against an opponent without an elite passing attack. Now, the Ravens are much better this season than they’ve been in years’ past, and Joe Flacco has definitely grown as a pro-quarterback in his sophomore season, but the Ravens are far from elite in the passing game.

In the running game, they are as scary, if not more-so than ever before. Ray Rice has transformed into one of the game’s most explosive rushing/receiving threats out of the backfield, and Willis McGahee has shown brilliant flashes of his old self when given the opportunity to run the ball. As an offensive line, the Ravens have dominated the line of scrimmage this season.

The question will be, can the Ravens keep up with the Patriots offense. And that depends which offense shows up. Already, the Patriots will be without their leading receiver this season, as Wes Welker and his 120+ receptions suffered a bad knee injury in the season finale and will likely be out into next season. But Julian Edelman is a good young player in the Welker mode, and it will likely come down to Tom Brady and the great quarterback’s accuracy. Tom has had his ups and downs this season, a year after shredding his own knee on opening day, and it’s been tough to predict which Brady will show up, and how consistent he’ll be from half to half.

But I like the Patriots in this one. They have an underrated defense, and especially in the run-D aspect of it. They are sure tacklers and have a plethora of sound tacklers. If Brady can find the same holes in the Ravens secondary that other elite passers have found, the Patriots should win and cover at home.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-3)

Philadelphia Eagles VS Dallas Cowboys: Wild Card Saturday Pick

Philadelphia Eagles VS Dallas Cowboys, Wild Card Saturday Pick: This is a tough one for me because either one of these teams can come out and drop a little nugget right down their collective pant legs, if you know what I mean. And while Dallas has proven their worth by smacking Philly twice already this season, on the road and at home, it’s hard for me to take the Cowboys as a 4 point favorite.

I’m not saying it doesn’t make sense, I’m just saying it’s tough for me to do it. The Cowboys have turned their “late season swoon” right around, winning their last three games, including handing the Saints their first loss of the season. But prior to the Dallas game, it was Philly playing like the best team in football, climbing from mediocre to a win away from a 1st round bye. What a difference a game makes, eh? Philly came out with no pop, got dominated on both sides of the ball, and now they are playing a first round game in Dallas as a 4 point underdog. Their biggest underdog spread of the season.

But that’s part of the reason I’m taking Philly. The spread is inflated because of the substantial beatdown Dallas put on the Eagles last week. The Cowboys are hardly the best team Philly has faced. Philly won 6 straight prior to losing in Dallas, and I don’t think there’s anyway the Eagles play as poorly as they did last week.

Now I’m throwing a little caution to the masses here, the Eagles have just one win all season long against a team with a winning record. And that team, Atlanta, didn’t make the playoffs at 9-7. Interesting, huh? I still like Philly, but be careful.

Philadelphia Eagles (+4) @ Dallas Cowboys

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