Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons NFC Divisional Playoffs Saturday: If the Packers found a running game last week, the rest of the NFC should be very, very worried. Green Bay had one weak link, and the way James Starks ran last week has me re-thinking the Packers altogether. I like Atlanta’s team, and they’re even better at home, but the close games are going to finally get to Atlanta one of these days, why not against a hot Green Bay club?
I’ve always been a fan of teams that come in with some success in a playoff situation, and the Packers definitely have that. Not because they have won a bunch of playoff games with the crew they have, but because they needed to win out against a couple pretty dang good teams to get into the playoffs at all. They beat the Giants in fine fashion, killing them all over the field 45-17. Then they toughed out a win against a Bears team that didn’t rest one single guy, doing their best to oust their division rival. And they got Philadelphia in Philly last weekend for a huge playoff win. Rodgers is really good, and now he’s confident. The Packers have the better defense, and that will be a big part of this game.
I really like both these teams, and the Falcons run the ball better than Green Bay – I just think the success the Packers had down the stretch and in Round 1 work wonders for them here. Atlanta’s still a young team with a young QB that is, in all respects, unproven in the big game. The Falcons played a ton of close games this year, and even though they won 9 of their last 10, pulling home the Week 1 playoff bye, the team can be vulnerable.
These teams went at it back in Week 11 (or so) and Atlanta just skipped by the Packers 20-17. I give round 2 to the road team, but it’ll be a close one!
NFL Week 10 Point Spread Pick Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears: This is very hard for me because there are so many things about the Bears that I just can’t stand. It starts with their offense, a system absolutely not built for the great outdoors, yet here we are in the middle of the US as the middle of November approaches, and the weather isn’t often good. Mike Martz does his little dance, forgets the rushing attack, and relies heavily on deep drops and down-field timing routes. Hate that. Hate that the guy making decisions in Jay Cutler, a highly touted QB that makes Brett Favre’s decision making look brilliant. If there’s ever been a guy that decides who he’s throwing it to in the huddle, it’s Jay. Also, the offensive line in Chicago isn’t very good. Not much to like about that.
But it’s not like the Vikings going up against a decent team is good value, so I have to go to the team with at least one good unit. The Bears’ defense is a good group. They are physical, they cause turnovers, and they can put pressure on opposing offenses. The Vikings did much better with that last week, but it still took overtime to get the win, and took Brett Favre’s best passing day ever, and did I mention they were playing Arizona?
Sure, the Vikings defense looked better against Arizona, but what is that supposed to mean? Minnesota needs to prove that the can beat a good team and no, wins over Detroit, Dallas, and Arizona don’t do it for me. Take the Bears and a defense that comes to play every week.
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Minnesota Golden Gophers Free Pick: Minnesota may be just 1-6, but their points for (24.9) and points against (31.7) are just 6-7 points a part – so that shows they’ve been a little unlucky this season. The Gophers have just one loss by more than 11 points all season long, their 23-41 loss in Wisconsin. Minnesota has played a pretty tough schedule thus far, losing to USC by 11, Northwestern by 1, and Purdue by 11. They’ve been in a lot of games, but have a lot of trouble stopping the run. The only teams they’ve out rushed all season long are South Dakota and Middle Tennessee State. You can see why they’ve lost 6 straight.
They haven’t even been decent at home – 0-4 already, but look at the way Penn State plays away from Happy Valley. The Lions are 0-2 on the road as 66% of their losses have come on road trips. Penn State’s injured list is about 10 men longer than Minnesota’s 3 many injured notice.
The Lions have allowed just as many points as they’ve scored, but the Golden Gophers are, like I said, between 6 and 7 in difference.
The Lions have been susceptible to the pass – they’ve been gashed in the on the ground of late – they gave up 217 more rushing yards than Illinois had. Iowa out-rushed them to. Alabama has also out-rushed the Gophers. That means that all three losses came against teams that could run the ball. Penn State has certainly been up and down, but I think the challenge of the unpredictable Gophers at home should sway that 10-point spread into the arms of the home team.
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Minnesota Golden Gophers (+9.5)
TOP 5 NFL Free Picks: Arses 2010 Week 4 Predictions: On a positive note, I won money. On a negative note, I’m still down. Just a couple bucks won last week as I finished 3-2. I thought I had that Monday Night game in the bag, but it wasn’t to be – damn those Bears and that gooey faced winking SOB, Jay Cutler. Somebody better kick that guy so I don’t have to. This week I’m ditching a favorite for the value of the Arizona Cardinals AK (after Kurt). Well, check the bets below!
Starting Account Total: $1000
At Risk This Week: $300 to Win $790
Money Left: $779 with $300 of that on the line
Total W/L Last Week: (3-2)
Season W/L Record – Individual Games: (6-7-1)
Week 3 Picks Review
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (Risk $100 to Win $93) (WIN $93)
Indianapolis Colts (-5) @ Denver Broncos:(Risk $100 to Win $93) (WIN $93)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars(Risk $100 to Win $93) (WIN $93)
San Diego Chargers (-5.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (Risk $100 to win $93) (LOSE $100)
Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Chicago Bears:(Risk $100 to Win $93) (LOSE $100)
Here are Week 4′s picks and bets.
Arizona Cardinals (+9) @ San Diego Chargers (Risk $100 to Win $95)
The Chargers haven’t been able to stop anyone, their return game/special teams isn’t far away from the worst thing in football if it’s not there already, and the Cardinals have their fuzzy Beanie Baby back in action – and he should be ready to do bad things to the Chargers hurting defense. Did I mention that San Diego can’t figure out how to make their yardage output translate to points? Tough to cover big spreads when that’s a big problem.
Houston Texans (-3) @ Oakland Raiders (Risk $100 to Win $95)
I know the public is all in on this one, but how can you ignore the chance to steal one from the sportsbooks? Houston didn’t play well last week, and they were stymied for one half against Washington – but his isn’t the old Texans here, they are going to win against teams like Oakland. Right? Right, right? Come on Houston!!!
Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ home VS San Francisco 49ers
New York Jets (-5) @ Buffalo Bills (Risk $100 to WIN $600)
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Cleveland Browns
There’s a lot to like here. The 49ers just aren’t what we thought they were – or maybe they are who Denny Green thought they were, he’s pretty good at assessing that kind of thing… They can’t run the ball that effectively, and they haven’t bought into throwing it either. When they do one, they do it all out and don’t try the other. Not much balance either way. The Falcons have been impressive defensively, and that’s huge – I say they win by 10. The Jets should crush the Bills. If Mark Sanchez can be trusted to throw the ball, how will the Bills stop the run? I know, they won’t. The Browns have played tough football to start the season, but 0-3 doesn’t show it. Unfortunately for them, and Browns fans (if there are any left) – I see 0-4 in the very near future. The Bengals haven’t clicked offensively yet, but it’s going to happen – just you wait and see. Parlay me up, win me big money!!!
Like I said, 4 favorites and a dog. Lucky’s teaching me to see value, and we both agree, this week the Cardinals have some. That should be interesting, we’re not in the business of being in full agreeance on much – but here goes nothing. I decided to go for the big bucks with three picks I really like, if I win 2 easily and barely lose the 3rd, I may have to throw something at my TV screen, and I don’t want to buy a new TV – so LETS GO PARLAY!!! One Time!!!