I love the Hawks. I think they’ll win. But with them, I just never know for sure. The same thing I’ve been saying about them absolutely rings true. Should they beat the Cardinals by a couple touchdowns? Yes. Will they take the chances offensively to upend Arizona in a laugher? History tells us, no. Wilson can handle what the Hawks ask him to do, he’s been nothing short of amazing during his rookie campaign, but for some reason the Hawks like close games, and that means +10 is the side to take.
Neither team has been brilliant, but the Giants have been much better. They are looking to secure a playoff spot here in the next couple weeks and this win is as important as ever. The Saints have been riding along with this hope of hopes that they could put an improbable run together and find the playoffs, only that was basically ended last week when they stunk it up against Atlanta and Drew threw 5 interceptions and not a single touchdown. So they’re out. I expect the Giants to dominate time of possession and oust the Saints easily.
This one is not easy, either, but Green Bay looks like a defense that will give up a ton of yards to the Detroit Megatrons. I think Aaron Rodgers and company find a way to win this one, but it’ll come down to the wire. The Packers just don’t have the rushing attack needed to hold off a lead. I wish it was a touchdown – I’d feel better with 7 points, but my numbers say go Detroit here.
It is absolutely true that Houston has a good defense and they can run the ball against anyone. But, the Patriots do a good job of making their opponents do something they don’t want to do, and the Texans have trouble stopping elite passers. Basically, this Monday Night game could show us who the Texans really are, or it could show us that they can’t beat elite passers – maybe both? I’ll take the Patriots until I know better.
Another winner in Week 12, and here comes lucky number 13. Yes, my long time followers, obviously traveling with me for many years now, remember a certain undefeated week years ago. Shall we have a repeat? Chances are nil as I trusted Drew Brees and his Saints too much this Thursday, but 15 of 15 on the weekend games would be grand.
This is the week the Jaguars stop playing decent football, I’m almost sure of it. They’ve been battling for weeks now, and that’s just unlike them. I know that they no longer have a handicap at quarterback, and receivers are starting to get open, shoot, even their defense is playing alright – but that honeymoon period of “This new guy gives us a chance to win,” is basically over, thus reintroducing us to the real Jaguars. I’ll give the points and say the Jags fall down on the road.
The Patriots start falling back a little bit here, but do they play a tight one with a rookie QB in Miami? Nan. Tom Brady is NBA Jam “On fire” right now, peddling that pigskin like he needs to prove to just one more schmuck that there’s a difference between him and everyone else – he always wins. Gronk out? No big deal. Welker dinged up, no problem. Defense giving up points, that’s okay, he’ll throw missiles into tight spots and tell you about it. Patriots win by more than a touchdown, here.
Alright, I throw in the blue and white towel, I’ll stop betting on the Colts to show us who they really are. Apparently this “Play for Chuckstrong” thing isn’t going to slow down after all. The Lions are very beatable at home, as Indy should be able to keep big plays to a minimum. One of these teams is disciplined, one is not. I’ll take Indy.
Week 12 starts with 3 games on Thanksgiving – This is how I see them on Turkeyday.
This is probably my “against the grain” pick, but it has to be my pick. I go by this philosophy; no matter what I’m thinking, what I feel, I have to be completely sold on an outcome to go against the rule that you always pick against a team that should have lost last week, but won. The Texans just firmly fit in that boat, as they should have lost that game to the freaking Chad Henne led Jaguars. Sounds like the start to a bad joke, but they really should have. The Lions, on the other hand, probably should have walked away from that Packer game with a win, or the damn near could have – it was a tight one. I hate the Lions, and am impressed with Houston, but I can’t go against the rules!
I love RG3 as much as the next guy. Shoot, I like him more. But the Cowboys are going to come to play on Thanks Giving, and you can bet their defense will bring out all the stops. This should be an interesting game, but I’m willing to bet that the Redskins’ leaky secondary is what decides this one. Some big plays between Romo and his receiving trio of Dez, Austin, and Witten are certainly in the cards.
I absolutely cannot buy the Jets, and it’s for defensive reasons. Amazingly, I’m not talking about theirs, which can’t stop the run. I’m talking about the intelligence in New England and how there’s basically no way they let the Jets score the football more than a couple times. Sanchize is terrible, but his offensive line is also terrible, and the coaching there? I’m unimpressed. The Patriots do everything well, and with Gronk out you’ll probably watch them hand the ball off 30 times on Thursday Night.
Well, a 7-4-2 week in Week 7 wasn’t too shabby, especially when you consider the Bills’ absolutely terrible play calling and execution down the stretch, the Bengals’ self destruction, the two pushes (one, Seattle being a game that many of you bought at +7.5 and won), and the Raven’s no show. A solid week indeed. I’m back for Week 8. Here it goes…
Newton has been what many people expected him to be last year, obviously talented, inaccurate in key situations, and athletic as a runner but without all those touchdowns. The NFL definitely has a way of humbling folks, might even work on Cam… Probably not, but we’ll see. Bottom line here, the Bears aren’t as good as everyone thinks and the Panthers play a lot of close games. I’ll take the points.
The Hawks are good. The Lions are bad. It is in Detroit and the Lions certainly are out to save their season, but sometimes will isn’t enough. The Lions won’t be able to run, and if the Hawks don’t go out and try to man up all day with the Lions WRs, then Stafford will continue to have a tough time with turnovers. I’ll take Seattle.
A couple things I know after years and years of picking games: 1) the Eagles ALWAYS win after a bye week. ALWAYS. Look it up. 2) Teams that are “great” are rarely actually great, and Atlanta is “great. 3) Undefeated teams usually don’t exist after Week 6. 4) Michael Vick is a pretty good player and if he’s played poorly, he’s probably going to have a couple great games to bring his numbers back around. 5) Teams that don’t run the ball well aren’t to be trusted. 6) I’ll take Philly at home.
Team that should have won last week getting points against team that played poorly and won last week? I’ll take it. RG3 for the win.
The room-coaster gets going this week and up, up, up, up and away the Cowboys go. I know, you don’t think so. You think it’s over. You think the Cowboys have finally hit the fan (yes, you’re reading into that right, I meant what I said, how I said it) but you are wrong. Why are you wrong? What’s my back-up? I got a feeling. Cowboys win by two scores and Romo has a day.
I will take points when two bad teams play. I will take points when two bad teams play. I will take points when…. But one of them has Blaine Gabbert… But they also have Maurice Jones-Drew. Their defense is terrible. The Raiders make defenses good… All of them. Dang it, guess I’ll take the points.
The Steelers have offensive line and running back woes for days. First of all, when their line was supposedly healthy, or at least when they started the season, they couldn’t run the ball a lick. Mendenhall comes back and they run the ball decent for one game. He gets hurt and Isaac Redman plays well, finally. But he got hurt. Now it’s back-up, back-up, and his back-up. Oh, did I mention the line is not one bit of healthy? The Steelers are old and dinged up and they still play like they are young and physical. I think AJ Green has a day and the Bengals win at home.
Jay Cutler is such a poo-face in clown shoes that I’m almost sure his cooler-than-life attitude will bring back Mr. Suh’s destroyer persona. Stafford has been bad, horrifically bad thus far – but that can’t last forever, can it? I mean, even if he is going to be bad and inconsistent and walk around like it’s no big deal that he is sucking more than Jay Cutler, every once in a while he has to accidentally have a good game. That’s this game. That’s Monday Night where everyone who was a believer becomes a believer again. He’ll break your huevos next week, but this week he ousts the Bears on the road. PS – Calvin Johnson is the Ultimate Warrior, Hulk Hulgan, and Usain Bolt welded together into one heroic receiver big-brothering defensive backs for food.
Game time is 1 pm ET with regional coverage on FOX.
NFL Picks have the Lions as a 6-point favorite. The moneyline odds and the over/under total will be released by sportsbooks later this week.
Head to head, Minnesota is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games overall when playing Detroit, and 7-3 SU in the last 10 meetings in Detroit. The total has gone under in 6 of the last 8 meetings overall and in 4 of the last 5 in Detroit.
Much-improved Minnesota won 24-13 against the previously unbeaten San Francisco 49ers on Sunday and covered the 6.5-point spread as home underdogs, while the score was under the total. Detroit was beaten 44-41 by the Tennessee Titans last week and failed to cover as a 4-point road favorite. The score soared over the total.
Minnesota is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. Detroit is 1-2 straight up and has yet to cover the spread at 0-3 ATS, and has now lost 2 straight games.
NFL Betting trends heading into this matchup show that the total has gone over in 4 of Detroit’s last 5 games overall, and the Lions are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.
This game starts at 1 pm ET and can be seen on local FOX stations.
NFL Odds have the Lions as 3.5-point, -175 moneyline favorites while the Titans are +155 favorites. The over/under total is at 47.
The Titans are 3-1 straight up and each team is 2-2 against the spread over the past four meetings. This is the first meeting since 2008, when the Titans won 47-10 and cashed as an 11-point road favorite. Going further back, Tennessee is 5-1 SU in the last 6 meetings, and the total has gone over in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Detroit lost 27-19 to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football last week. The Lions failed to cash as a 6.5-point underdog, while the score was under the total. The Titans were blown out 38-10 by the San Diego Chargers on Sunday, failing to cover the spread as a 6-point underdog.
Detroit is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Tennessee is 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS.
Pro Football Betting trends show that the total has gone over in 9 of Detroit’s last 11 games on the road, and in 5 of Detroit’s last 7 games overall
The total has gone under in 7 of Tennessee’s last 10 games overall, and in 4 of Tennessee’s last 6 games at home.
Kick-off is at 8:20 pm ET and the game will be broadcast nationally on NBC.
NFL Odds opened with the 49ers as a 7-point favorite and the line has dipped slightly to -6.5 at most sportsbooks. Moneyline odds have San Francisco as a -330 favorite and the Lions a +270 road underdog. The over/under total is at 47.
The 49ers have dominated the recent head-to-head series at 8-1 straight up and 5-2-2 against the number. The teams last met in a memorable matchup on Oct. 16 last season, when the 49ers beat the Lions 25-19, covering as a 5-point dog and ending Detroit’s unbeaten start to the season in Week 6.
That game is also known for a postgame confrontation between San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh and Lions’ coach Jim Schwartz, when the two had to be separated following a less-than-friendly postgame handshake.
Detroit (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) beat the St. Louis Rams 27-23 last Sunday but failed to cover as an 8-point home favorite, while San Francisco (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) beat the Green Bay Packers 30-22 and cashed as a 6-point underdog.
NFL Handicappers trends show that the total has gone over in 5 of Detroit’s last 6 games, and San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
FOX will carry this matchup live at 1 pm ET.
NFL Football Picks have the Lions as 7.5-point favorites after they opened as 9-point favorites. The moneyline betting odds have Detroit as a -320 favorite and St. Louis a +280 underdog. The total is at 45.5.
St. Louis was one of the worst teams in the NFL last season, going 2-14 SU and 3-12-1 ATS while Detroit was 10-6 straight up and 7-8-1 against the point spread.
Head to head, the teams are dead even over the past six meetings, each going 3-3 SU and ATS, and with four of the six games going over the total. Detroit is 4-2 ATS in the past six meetings at home. When the teams last met on Oct. 10, 2010, The Lions hammered the Rams 44-6 and easily cashed as a 3-point home favorite. The score was over the total of 44.
The total has gone under in 6 of St. Louis’s last 7 games on the road, and in 9 of its last 13 games overall.
The total has gone over in 4 of Detroit’s last 5 games overall, but under in 5 of Detroit’s last 7 games at home. Detroit is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home, and 14-7 SU in its last 21 games overall.
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints NFC Wildcard Free Pick: I think 10 is a lot, but the Lions defense has impressed me none, and I know the Saints will disrupt some of that Lion offense we saw go off last week. No way Calvin Johnson is allowed to run roughshod over the Saints like he did against the Packers (minus a few key defenders). The Saints are smart and they took Calvin out of the game (for the most part – 6 catches for 69 yards) the first time these two teams played.
I like what the Lions have offensively, as Kevin Smith has been a nice running option out of the backfield and Matthew Stafford definitely has some nice weapons at his disposal, but it’s hard to believe that they can stay up with the Saints in New Orleans through 4 quarters. The Saints are just too damned consistent.
Defensively, neither team has been good this year. The Lions gave up half a billion yards to the Packers last week, and were beat up multiple times this year – but they usually are pretty solid in the secondary – though they can’t stop the run.
New Orleans uses a plethora of weapons at running back, and all three of them will get their turn to gash the Lions front 7. I expect a well rounded game from the Saints, but Brees will get his numbers and the Saints should win. Consistency wins in a game that ends up with the Saints winning by double digits.