Free Football Picks for Week 17 2012 NFL
December 29, 2012 by luckylester
Had an early Christmas gift to you all last week rocking 10 wins in Week 16, picking Seattle, Minnesota, and Cincinnati correctly in big time games was nice, whilst ending up on the wrong side of the Saints/Cowboys game was more naughty. Week 17 has a couple big ones, with so much on the line that not many teams can afford a star-starter bye week for their big guns. At least that makes it more fun for us.
Despite having possibly the best WR ever and boasting a fairly studly defensive line, the Lions just don’t have enough of what makes you good at football, a powerful offensive line that can get a yard when you need it most, and a defense that can stop good offenses. The Bears have holes, and they could easily be left out of the playoff picture even with a win, but they have one heck of a defense and will be playing for their season this week – gotta take them in Detroit where the Lions aren’t all that good.
I don’t really understand this line, even if the Falcons have expressed that they will be starting their normal starters. The bottom line is that this is a mean game, and dudes that have absolutely nothing to play for and are looking not to get hurt going into the playoffs are rarely up for the game like those guys playing for jobs, like many of the Bucs will be on Sunday. I know Tampa has put together a pretty down finish to what was once a promising season, and are now out of the playoff picture, but they aren’t playing for a rest, and they aren’t getting a one week bye before the playoffs like the Falcons. Atlanta has nothing to play for, in fact playing could result in an injury that could hurt their playoff chances. If starters on the Falcons play past the 2nd quarter I’ll be stunned.
The Jets are not good against the run, and they are in a weird state, and Mark Sanchez has been terrible, been benched, been 3rd string, been talked about in terms of trade rumors and getting flat out cut, and now he’s back at the helm – not because he’s earned it but because the late round pick is out, and the Jets have no interest in Tebow coming out and winning a game with Tebow magic just to prove his point. So here’s Mark. He won’t do enough to beat a Bills ground attack that is almost sure to tear up the Jets defensive front. If CJ Spiller has less than 150 total yards tomorrow I’ll be stunned. Bills should win this one.
With nothing on the line I actually think Cam Newton is at his best. This is the perfect selfish time to show everyone what he can do, how he can play, and prove that his team is indeed good so the Panthers can say “see, we’re better than you think.” The Saints are going to come out and throw the ball around, and they could come out on top, but garbage time is Cam time – I think he wins it for the road underdogs.
I think these two teams are pretty even, so I give 3 points to the home team Bengals. Nothing is on the line in this game – if the Ravens win they still play in Round 1 and are the division champs, if they lose they do the same and are the same. The Bengals will be going on the road to play, so I think this momentum and the fact that this is their last game in front of their home fans will help them outlast Baltimore.
I don’t know what the spread is in this game, but I expect a Steelers win despite Pittsburgh playing in a weird place, something they aren’t used to, playing their last game with NO shot at a playoff situation. The Steelers are out, and they have a lot of questions to answer, and maybe Big Ben doesn’t have much interest playing in this game as dinged up as he has been – but the Browns are down to their 3rd string QB, their 2nd string RB, and a defense that is also banged up. They will almost surely have a new coach next year, and with new ownership there’s not a whole lot going for this team right now. If it’s under 2 touchdowns, I’ll take Pitt.
Houston has a bye to play for while the Colts will be on the road next week no matter what – so the want and the need and the push is all on the side of the road team Texans. That being said, the Colts have surprised me all year, played well when I was almost sure they’d tumble –found ways to win and keep it close. I say they do it again with Chuck back leading the team on the field.
I actually am one of the football guys that think Vick is very good, think he can be a starting QB on a good team, and expect him to be that for another team come next fall – but I feel terrible that he has to play in this game. That’s how bad the Eagles’ offensive line is, and that’s how nasty the New York Giants’ defensive line is. When you add the fact that Andy Reid is almost surely gone, and the Giants are playing for a shot in the dark at the playoffs, well, I see the Giants finding a way… per usual.
This game is disgusting. The Jags looked better for a moment with Chad Henne under center, but things haven’t been very good down the stretch, even though Justin Blackmon finally started running around with a purpose and being the solid #1 option they thought they were drafting. The Titans are still miss and hit with their running game, despite decent overall numbers from Chris Johnson this year. Kenny Britt still doesn’t seem 100% and if he did, Jake Locker continues to have similar accuracy struggles that plagued him in college. All that being said, I guess I’ll take the points. If this ends in a 0-0 tie, I win!
The Vikings play very well at home and need a win to secure a playoff spot while the Packers are still just playing for a bye. They need a win to secure the bye, so it’s a big game for them, but one has to think the rushing attack of Adrian Peterson will be on full display against the Packers. That being said, the Packers are better and that bye is a big deal – can’t get upset in the first round hosting a hotter than Halle Berry in her prime Seattle Seahawk team if you have a bye in the first round. If there’s ever been something to play for, that’s it. The Vikings can’t throw it, the Packers will force them too. That’s the ball game when it comes right down to it.
Okay, work with me on this one. The Hawks find out at half time that the 49ers are up by three scores at home against the Cardinals (a team that can’t conceivably score three times in a half) so they sit some key players that bring helmet on every play. Plus they rest their golden goose, Russ Wilson, despite being one of the more competitive teams out there. Add that to the fact that St. Louis is better than YOU give them credit for, they are 7-7-1 and a winning record is really close. Bradford has been better, and that defense has tightened up when they need to. I think the Hawks find a way late, maybe with their high priced off season pick-up, Matt Flynn, having one of his customary last game impressings, but 11 points are too many for me, even if the Hawks have outscored their opponents 1,350 – 17 over the past month.
The Patriots have not been playing good football down the stretch, something I think their crazy amazingly good coach has been doing on purpose. He wants them to hog it up a little before they come together for a Super Bowl run. This is their come together game, a Miami defense that Tom has devoured in years’ past, last game of the year, a possible bye on the line – all the AFC playoff teams have been chosen, but at the top there’s a lot to play for – I see the Pats winning big at home in the cold weather.
Seventeen is too many. Jamaal Charles knows how to have big games when nobody expects him too, this will be that game. The Broncos will probably end up winning by double digits, but not 17. These guys in KC like their coach, they’ll play for him in his final game.
I can’t believe I’m taking the Chargers at -10, and that will likely come back to haunt me, but with the Raiders taking a bus down the freeway (saving money late… kidding) it’s close to a sure win for the Chargers. As bad as Rivers has been, and as lame as their coaching staff is, the Chargers still have a very solid defense and that should be enough.
The Cards have nothing to play for, as even pride went down the drain a while back. The 49ers are a very tough match-up for them, as they can beat Arizona in a lot of different ways. That being said, San Fran isn’t likely to come out and pull out all the stops late. The Cardinals should be able to keep this one close enough with a play or two late in garbage time.
Robert Griffin strikes me as the kind of guy that wins this kind of game. That’s enough for me – I’ll take Washington at home behind game winning plays from their young star quarterback.