Free Football Picks for 2012 Week 16 NFL Matchups

Week 15 really blasted me; not many close games and I lost the ones that were. Hoping to get back after it in Week 16, just a couple more to go. Merry Christmas NFL weekend, folks, stay away from any and every shopping center, watch football, be merry.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions

The Lions just haven’t been very good, despite Calvin Johnson being a freak of nature, and the defensive link wreaking havoc on opposing offenses. They don’t play sound and disciplined on either side of the ball, and that especially starts with Matthew Stafford. The Falcons, on the other hand, play a fairly error-free game, giving opponents nothing and capitalizing off of dumb mistakes. Seems like a perfect opportunity for a road cover in Detroit.

Washington Redskins (-6.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles

It looks like RG3 is back, though it could be yet another Splinter Shanahan trickster move, one would never know. Either way, the Eagles are playing as a team with a lame duck coach, an almost certain roster upheaval at season’s end, and a rookie quarterback not named Robert, Russell, or Andrew. The Redskins stop the run well, and that’s what ends up getting them this easy cover against the Eagles.

St. Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

After slumming on the streets last week against New Orleans, the Buccaneers will almost surely flip a 180 and go to battle with the Rams. St. Louis isn’t much in the business of giving out free wins, but they aren’t a great team by any means. Three points at home is basically a push and I’ll give the buccos the benefit of the doubt.

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys (-1)

I don’t know what I’m up to, buying into the Cowboys headed into Week 17 with a chance at the playoffs? Yikes. But it could happen. It’s a secret to nobody (and it was no secret to me when I told anyone that would listen that the Saints would struggle without their head coach and playcaller, not just any playcaller, but one of the very best in the business) that the Saints aren’t the same offensive dynamo without Sean Peyton at the helm. The Cowboys have a lot more than pride to play for, and they’ve shown some toughness lately. I say they sneak by the Saints… Then disappoint the world next week when it really matters…

San Diego Chargers (+3) @ New York Jets

The crazy thing is I don’t know who’s worse offensively right now, a team led by Phillip Rivers or a team led by Greg McElroy. Seriously. It’s getting gross. Expect another offensive game involving the Jets, and I don’t mean one with a lot of offense going down. I mean downright offensive. I’ll take points, and the Chargers are getting them.

Minnesota Vikings (+9) @ Houston Texans

I think Adrian Peterson covers a 9 point spread. A couple defensive plays for the Vikings and it’s a gimmie. I’ll take the road dogs.

Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers (-12.5)

It’s an awful lot of points to give a Packers team that hasn’t really clicked offensively like they did last year, a team without a rushing attack, a team without a strong offensive line… But then again, they are playing the Titans, a defensive unit that really struggles to stop even the most mild of offensive attacks. Aaron should be discount double checking the crap out of the Titans.

Oakland Raiders (+9.5) @ Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have played better in half of their last 4 games, but that doesn’t sell me on them as two score favorites against any other NFL team. I’ll take the Raiders, even though they are terrible. Carolina just doesn’t capitalize on big opportunities, and a team that wastes those chances shouldn’t be favored by double digits (or 9.5).

Buffalo Bills (+5) @ Miami Dolphins

My guy C.J. Spiller is going to look like Reggie Bush circa USC Trojan “un-Heisman” Trophy winning days – just you wait and see. I know that Fitzpatrick gives away possessions and doesn’t read a defense nearly as well as one would expect the smartest man in the NFL to read a defense, but the Dolphins don’t run away with games and that should keep the Bills running the football – where they are at their best.

Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs very well could run the ball with success at home against Indy. Everyone knows that the Chiefs play much better football at home than they do on the road, but it’s hard for me to believe that KC will respond well to playing so terribly all year that their head coach and GM have been show walking papers, effective at season’s end. Lame duck as they were already, this is a sure thing, and the Colts are still battling for the playoffs – they’ll be ready to go with Chuckstrong back on the sidelines.

New England Patriots (-14.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

I hate this game. I really want to take the Jags but they’ve been so bad offensively lately and there’s basically no way that this sieved of a defense holds Tom Brady and company under 30 points. But they could hold them to 31 and score a few times late, just to bust up the spread. Dang. Tough call. I’m taking the Pats because they should score 42 or more against this D.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have to lose sometime, don’t they? This is looking like the year, no playoffs for the Steelers this time around – but they still have a small, little, tiny, baby chance. At home, taking on a Bengals team they’ve owned (not in the way the crappy Bengals’ owner actually owns the team – that guy is a real pisser) but in the “you might as well be my little brother” kind of way. Nine wins in a row vs. the Bengals… That’s ridiculous. Pittsburgh has covered in 8 of the last 10. It’s terrible. But this is the year – this is the week – road dog again, dang!

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-13)

Denver can’t really afford a loss here, so they’ll be trying to lay it on the Brownies quick so that they can rest their studs near the end of the game. I see a quick cover and a hold on for the Bronco backers, here. Cleveland might very well be without Trent Richardson and the Broncos are good enough to really get after Brandon Weeden either way. If there’s no rushing attack to keep them honest, watch out.

New York Giants (-2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

This game means everything to the Giants and not all that much to the Ravens – plus, I’m just not sure how tough this Ravens team is right now. Offensively they dumped their OC a couple weeks ago, and if it weren’t for some garbage time scores last week, they would have been goose-egg’d. They have no identity right now, and at the very least the Giants have proven that they step up when everything is on the line. That’s their reality right now, being just a loss away from no playoffs.

Chicago Bears (-5.5) @ Arizona Cardinals

The Bears have to find a way to upend the Cardinals in Arizona, right? The Cards give up some big plays through the air, and have little reason to play guts out on Sunday, so there will certainly be some big plays to be had. Brandon Marshall will almost surely tear up the Cards secondary if Jay Cutler can get some time to throw. Then again, this is where the Bears famously were who we thought they were, and needed late magic to walk out of Arizona with a win. Hopefully for the case of my cover, they won’t need any magic to pull it out this time around.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (pk)

Hawks at home as a pick-em, you bet. I’d take that bet against any team in football (and I’m serious, in fact, if I had that bet at all this year I’d be undefeated). There is no team in the NFL playing better than the Hawks right now, not even the super star San Francisco 49ers. Both of these teams are playing great, but the Hawks bring the ruckus at home, and even with one of their starting CBs out. This should be a great game, and in great games anything can happen – but how do you pick against the Hawks at home and say it’s a good bet? I’m here trying to give you good bets, percentage picks – Hawks at home as an even bet, take that all day.