NFL Week 11 2012 Free Football Picks
November 16, 2012 by luckylester
Week 11 is here, and the season only has a month and a half before heading into post-season. Time for a big run!
The Rams might not be great, but they aren’t self destructive, too busy taking polls on how bad their back-up quarterback is, or a group of underachieving dinks that should never have been expected to be a playoff team in the first place. St. Louis has ups and downs, but they are the better team in this one, playing at home, playing better, and not lost in general disdain for each other.
Oh nobody quite looks at the Jags with as much disgust as I do. That being said, 16 point? That’s about 3 too many for my betting prowess, leaving me taking one of the worst teams in the NFL against the most complete team in the NFL. Oh well.
They may win, and they may cover, but by no means are the Cowboys worth this kind of points spread. Cleveland isn’t as bad offensively as they’ve been in the past, and despite the regime change that is almost surely on the way, a bunch of talented kids are playing well in Cleveland, and everyone gets up to play in Dallas. I expect a close one with a lot of Trent Richardson.
The Bengals haven’t finished too often, and their record reflects a much lesser team than they are. They can make plays on defense, and Andy Dalton can throw the ball around the field, especially to AJ Green, possibly the best wide receiver in the league. I expect the Chiefs to go down early and struggle to get up from big mistakes.
I’m going this way because I can’t buy for one minute that losing Michael Vick is good for the Eagles. Unless this prompts Andy Reid to call the game completely different, Vick is the only reason the Eagles were in games. That offensive line is so bad, it’s hard to watch. RG3 could give the Eagles’ defense trouble with his legs, prolonging plays, and taking advantage of those underachieving cornerbacks.
I just don’t think the Packers are the same team this year, and it’s shown. Their offensive line isn’t as good, as they can’t forge any kind of rushing attack. Without that to keep the Lions honest, the talented front 4 for Detroit will almost surely have their way with the pass rush. I like a Lions upset in Detroit.
I like the Bucs much more than I like the Panthers, a team that will almost surely have a new coach, and be going in a different direction next season. But the Panthers need this win and they have played a little better lately. I just think they come out and put a good game on the board, winning at home.
Hopefully it’s the week of the underdog, something that’s getting more and more rare in the NFL. What I see here is a Cardinals defense coming off a bye, getting healthy, and a pretty talented group. They’ll be going up against a Falcons team that can’t really run, and is dinged up with Julio Jones possibly out, and some other bumps and bruises. That first loss is often blamed on “luck” but I wouldn’t be surprised if Atlanta came out flat again this week, allowing Arizona to cover.
My fantasy team is all in on this game. That being said, I don’t think the Saints can afford to lose this. I imagine this game being in the 48-31 range, but I like the Saints to be the team left standing after the fireworks. The Raiders are just too bad to end the Saints’ season, right?
Are the Patriots better? Sure. But Indy’s offense is pretty solid, and very efficient. It’s hard for me to believe this game getting out of hand. I think the Colts are an easy pick on the road in this one. s
I think I’ve seen too much Phillip Rivers and the Chargers this year. They look bad so often. I really wanted to take them here, a must win game for them, really, but Peyton has been too good, and Rivers makes too many bone-head plays. He can’t do anything outside the pocket, a place he’ll almost certainly have to be when the Broncos’ pass rush gets going. I’ll take Denver, even though I don’t love it.
The Steelers’ defense has been awesome lately, and Baltimore is in that midseason offensive rut that almost assures this game to be in the 6-3 halftime sections of this weekend’s football games. No offense, no chances, field position game with minimal first downs. Yay, old football! The thing is, when they start to figure it out, the Ravens will take some changes, and they can get behind Pitt’s defense. I expect them to pull this cover out and beat the Big Ben-less Steelers.
This game is off, and who knows which QB is or isn’t playing, but I like the 49ers to win by more than a field goal, Jay or no Jay, Alex Smith or not. They are better, they are more physical, they don’t rely on big defensive plays to be dominant on that side of the ball. Both teams are very good, I just think the 49ers are better, they are at home, and they are in a better position to win this match-up.