New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers Thursday Night NFL Free Pick

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers Thursday Night NFL Free Pick: I think this line is just about right on the money as far as value for either team, public perception, and the actual fairness of the number. The Saints have a lot of pull in the betting world – Drew Brees, a good head coach, a very solid defense that always puts pressure on opposing offenses. They didn’t just win the Super Bowl or anything, but they aren’t far off. The Packers are at home (which I think gives you 2.5 to 3 points in an even contest), they are coming off a Super Bowl Championship and they have a team young enough to contend for a back-to-back title. I think these two teams are basically even, so the Packers are getting an extra point for being Super Bowl Champs – and I think that’s fair.

That being said, the Saints were the better team for much of 2010, and I won’t be stunned if they end up being the better unit in 2011. They lose Reggie Bush, but he was hurt so often that they had learned how to play without him anyway. Plus, I’m not convinced that Darren Sproles isn’t just as good for the Saints – he has better vision as a running back and certainly has that “in space” ability that Bush used to succeed in New Orleans.

Rarely on Thursday Night does the opening game live up to the hype, but I think this one has a very good chance. The Saints getting that extra point to assure a victory even if they lose by a field goal is what puts me on their side. Plus, I love the idea of throwing beads to pretty girls for a peak at bubbly bliss – thank you New Orleans!

New Orleans Saints (+4) @ Green Bay Packers