Fantasy Football Sleepers: 2011 NFL Draft Kit

Fantasy Football Sleepers: 2011 NFL Draft Kit

The thing about fantasy football is that it’s almost difficult to mess up those first 4 picks. Yes, in four rounds, if you don’t walk away with 4 pretty dang good players, you are one of the 12% that blew it. (Of course injuries can derail you from the get go, Ryan Grant last year, Tom Brady the year before that – but that’s a different beast).

I’ve seen guys pick their favorite defense in Round 4, I’ve seen homers take their favorite player in Round 2 (and no, there was never a point where Drew Bledsoe was a 2^nd round fantasy player, but when you have friends that went to WSU, crazy business can happen in fantasy leagues!). These are what you call “Donators”. Donators join fantasy football leagues for the camaraderie, the banter, a reason to follow the game in more depth, and of course… to donate money to the league pool. You don’t pick the Cowboys D in Round 4 unless you are a Donator. Everyone loves a Donator, they make draft day fun and give you better chances to win.

The point is, your draft isn’t made in the first few rounds or every team in your league would be good (unless you have a donator). Every team in your league isn’t good, that’s a guarantee, so the fact of the matter is, the separation between Fantasy team Good and Fantasy team Bad are every addition from Round 5 until defenses and kickers become the small fat unskilled guy picked last for two hand touch at recess.

So how are you going to dominate those rounds and build a fantasy championship level squad? Get value, and lots of it. How you going to do that? Get a note pad and a pen, read this article, write some of these names down, draft them on draft day, then email the site and thank me later. Here are my 2011 great value picks, also known as sleepers. (I’ll have a DEEP SLEEPER article in a week or so, so stay tuned for that – covering undrafted guys that could really impress).

This is where you’ll see me differ from my site rankings – for example, I like A.J. Green more than Michael Crabtree, a little different from our rankings. I’ll try to explain why when the time comes, but for the most part, these are guys that we (collective whole at LL.com) have ranked above other fantasy sites.

All players in this article are ranked outside the Top 60, meaning they are usually picked after the first 6 rounds of the draft. Next to their names, I’ve listed their “average draft positions” (ADP) as well as a couple guys drafted ahead of them that they are better than.

(Check out my full positional tiered rankings here: QB Tiers – RB Tiers – WR Tiers – TE Tiers – D/ST Tiers)

Here it goes…

QB: This is an interesting one because I’ve hated Cutler in the past, have always overrated Bradford, and have written some bad things about Cassell. The bottom line here is that it doesn’t matter who you like and hate, it’s all about value and that team/player improving. I wouldn’t think that Roy Williams would help many teams, but shoot, he’ll help Chicago. So Will Cutler getting his A in shape and working on quarterbacking things all summer. Expect more TDs and less INTs from lumpy. Bradford will have more targets, another year of football and health, and a better team under him. He’s sooo accurate. Cassel had some ups and downs, but look at the kid’s production last year – he was real good. And you know defenses will continue to key on that rushing attack.

1. Jay Cutler (ADP: 103) (Better than: Eli Manning, Josh Freeman, Matt Ryan)

2. Sam Bradford (ADP: 114) (Better than: Colt McCoy, Mark Sanchez, Eli Manning)

3. Matt Cassel (ADP: 120)  (Better than: Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, McNabb, Newton, McCoy)

RB: I don’t know what I like about Lynch. He’s faster than he gets credit for and is more two dimensional than the Hawks used him for last season. He averaged 4 yards per carry in his first two seasons, and caught 47 balls in his sophomore campaign. The Hawks have a much improved offensive line and a QB that has to be accounted for. Beanie Wells will have his best season as a pro, which isn’t saying much. But I expect defenses to give a crap about the passing game in Arizona, something they didn’t do last year. Beanie will have more room, and if he doesn’t get hurt, what a steal on draft day. Felix Jones is a super talented runner than produced some good stuff late last season. He’ll be better than the guys he’s drafted behind. DeAngelo Williams is hardly a sleeper, but I really think a lot of him. I know he’ll be better than Matthews or Bradshaw, the Panthers offensive line is better and healthier and yes, I think Newton is more help to that offense than Jimmy Claussen. Williams has been good with Delhomme at QB, so he’s used to doing work.

1. Marshawn Lynch (ADP: 96) (Better than: LeShoure, D. Thomas, Moreno, Stewart, Benson)

2. Beanie Wells (ADP: 122) (Better than: Spiller, Helu, Murray, Ryan Williams, Reggie Bush, L.T.)

3. Felix Jones (ADP: 98) (Better than: Fred Jackson, LeShoure, Moreno, Stewart)

4. DeAngelo Williams (ADP: 68) (Better than: Ryan Matthews, Ahmad Bradshaw)

WR: Everyone thinks that Edwards’ value dives in San Francisco. That’s good, because I think it rises. New head coach, Harabaugh is a good coach. Edwards is a super talented player. Braylon signed for 1 million to play under a guy he really respects. Braylon will be the best receiver in San Francisco. Mike Thomas gets no love, but since I’ve done nothing but love this guy since he was in college, I’m giving everyone a heads up. He’s the #1 receiver in Jax, which means little except that he’s going to be better than most of the people ranked around him, because he’s ranked like a slot WR. Sims-Walker is a high-risk high-reward player, expect that he’s low risk. Yes, at pick 120, you’re not risking all that much. He could end up being a big fast #1 WR for one of the more accurate young QBs ever. James Jones was paid pretty well to be a 4^th receiver in Green Bay – in fact, he was paid like a #2. Every site has Driver and Nelson (and Jennings, but he should be) ranked ahead of Jones, but James will outperform both those guys and a bunch of guys picked ahead of him on draft day.

1. Braylon Edwards (ADP: 113) (Better than: Julio Jones, Mike Williams (sea), Santana Moss, Knox, Burress)

2. Mike Thomas (ADP: 127) (Better than Lee Evans, Burleson, Baldwin, Greg Little, Jordy Nelson)

3. Mike Sims-Walker (ADP: 120) (Better than: Donald Driver, Hines Ward, Deion Branch, Devin Hester, Malcom Floyd)

4. James Jones (ADP: 135) (Donald Driver, Deion Branch, Greg Little, Jordy Nelson)

TE: Cooley is a great receiver and probably the best target Washington has. He dropped a bunch of balls last year, but this guy gets heavy targets and is good after the catch. He’ll be a Top 10 guy for sure, probably Top 7. Jared Cook doesn’t get much love, but Hasselbeck likes to go to the TE (he can’t throw real far, and TE’s usually run shallower routes) and if Locker takes over, he’ll look for the big guy. Cook is very athletic and should be consistent all season.

1. Chris Cooley (ADP: 128) (Better than: Marcedes Lewis, Heath Miller, Shockey, Kevin Boss, Todd Heap, Petitgrew, Tony Gonzalez, Winslow)

2. Jared Cook (ADP: 139) (Ben Watson, Greg Olsen, Todd Heap, Shockey, Heath Miller)

D: Dallas is at least better than all those teams I listed, and maybe more. They have a very good defensive coordinator in tow, they’ve always been talented, and they played much better after Garrett took over last season. Carolina has a solid young defense with good returning players and an offense that will hold the ball longer – last year they were on the field forever!

1. Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 119) (Better than: Houston, Indianapolis, San Diego, Minnesota)

2.  Carolina Panthers (ADP: Undrafted) (Better than: Denver, Oakland, Arizona, Miami)

K: I’m only putting kickers in here to prove to you that you don’t need to ever pick a kicker before the last round of your draft (unless you’re in a 2/3 kicker league in which case you don’t need to be angry at me for writing this, you just need to get the heck out of that league). Scobee is an accurate cat that cat drill deep field goals, and the offense will move the ball a little better (but still struggle to score) in 2011. Henery will be the guy for the quick hitting Eagles, that could leave many a field goal attempt for the youngster.

1. Josh Scobee (ADP: 117) (Better than: Shuisham, Josh Brown, Akers)

2. Alex Henery (ADP: 126) (Better than: Feely, Jsoh Brown, Cundiff)