Ask Papa Weimer: Fantasy Drafts and a Big Fat Contest

I’m at it again. Somehow, someway, I continue to fight my own oldness and blast father time in the face with new ideas and an acute sense of fantasy know how. I’m wild, no doubt about it, and my antics are often unnecessary, but when it gets down to the nitty gritty, the “i need an answer, a reason, a bone” to get you through your fantasy week, by all means, I’m your guy. All you have to do is email me at PAPAWEIMER50@HOTMAIL.COM and I’ll get back to you as soon as possible – almost always that day, in fact – because I’m old, and rarely leave the house. Plus I have internet hooked up to my 60inch big screen so I can see the dang words.

Before I get into answering this week’s questions (or sharing my answers with you all) I have some good news. This year I get to post some contests here and there, and I get to divvy out the winnings as well. This is the first contest I’ve ever run and so I’m going to do something fun.

Fantasy Knuckleheads is sponsoring my BEST Team Name contest. The winner will receive season long access to their Fantasy Football Draft and In-season Package.

Prize: Free season long subscription to Fantasy Knuckleheads’ Dominator Package, a $24 value.

Contest: The first contest is an easy one. All I want you to do is send the best fantasy football team name you’ve ever had to PAPAWEIMER50@HOTMAIL.COM. I’ll give you until Friday, September 2nd to get me your name . I’ll post my favorites in my next article, and announce my winner.

The Catch: There’s no catch. The Contest is free. Just send me an email with a team name, and that enters you right into the contest. I like witty, I like funny. Good luck!

Now for the Q&A

Jason BD in Indianapolis writes, “This is my first season as a fantasy football guy. I’ve always frowned on the idea of rooting for anybody but Colts. But this season my son roped me into his fantasy league, and I found your site when looking for help. A couple questions: If you wanted Peyton Manning for sure, where would you draft him? How about Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai, and Pierre Garcon? Dallas Clark? Also, Do you think I could win with all Colts? Thanks!”

Oh Jason, fantasy and home team pride are a tough combination to unleash in any sort of winning matter. I’ll give you my answers, places you will almost surely be able to get your Colts, but I would do my best to mix in some top talent around your guys. You’ll never beat your son in fantasy with a team full of Colts, I can promise you that! I think you can get Peyton Manning pretty easily in the 2nd round. Even the 3rd round if you’re a Top 4 pick in the fantasy draft. These questions about his neck are perfect for you getting him later. No earlier than the 2nd round, though – Peyton as a 1st round pick is too high a price to pay. I think you can get Reggie Wayne in the 3rd round, maybe even the 4th. He goes about 35th overall – and rarely before the Top 30. Like Manning, his stock is falling a bit because of his QB’s health. You can get Dallas in the 5th round. His stock isn’t falling as much, which makes sense. In fact, I expect Manning to play at least 14 games this season which means drafting him at a discount is a great deal. I think Garcon goes a little high, but he’s safe to get around the 8th round. Probably 9th, but if you need him on your squad, the 8th is it. Addai in the 10th is a pretty safe place to get him. So, if you really love these guys, I’d probably hope for a draft that looks like this….

1. Chris Johnson  2. Peyton Manning 3. Reggie Wayne 4. DeSean Jackson  5. Dallas Clark  6. Felix Jones  7. Mario Manningham 8. Pierre Garcon  9. Eli Manning 10. Joseph Addai… And so on. I hope you reconsider, check out our TIERED RANKINGS, but if not – shoot for some big play makers in the rest of your picks – and NO COLTS in Round 1!

Corey Singer asks, “You say you’ve done 7 drafts so far, that’s nothing compared to my 47 – however, you might be paying better attention than me, who do you think is the guy going as the biggest steal in the Top 25 picks thus far?

Corey, I’d say that’s a tough one, but it’s not. I’d give you a quick answer and make this entire thing a lot easier, but that’s not really my style, so I’m not. However, if you want to cut down a few minutes reading this deal, go ahead and scroll down to the bottom. If you had asked me the biggest steal in the Top 35 picks, I might have answered somebody like Vincent Jackson – VJ is healthy, playing for a free agent deal, has one of the best young QBs in the business on a team that likes to throw. He’s a freak of nature and in the preseason he looks good. He’s going after 30 in all but 2 of my 7 drafts, and I think he’s a Top 5 WR. If you had said in all of fantasy, that would have really opened up the flood gates, and I would have said that Lance Kendricks (I’m projecting Top 7 TE, and he’s going undrafted in most leagues – unless I pick him), Donovan McNabb (he’s going after 160 almost always – he’s in a better offense that’s more shaped around what he’s always done – and defenses will have to honor the run-game), or Mario Manningham (he’s going too late, he’s going to be a beast as the #2 in New York). But since you said Top 25, that made it pretty easy. Maurice Jones-Drew is thievery at pick 18-23 where I’ve gotten him three times. He’s expected to play in preseason Week 4, he’s a super consistent TD scoring machine that does everything. And someone recently took Jahvid Best over him. Please. MJD is a Top 8 fantasy pick, and if he’s not, steal him!

Seb from Australia writes, “This’ll be my first season of fantasy NFL. I live out in Australia, so don’t get to watch many games, but have enjoyed following the sport for the last 2 -3 years, albeit fairly loosely.This year though, a friend as cajoled me into joining his league; it’s a $20 buy in, winner take all. My ego dictates I must win, so my question to you is, when it comes time to draft, in what order of value do i place RBs, WRs, QBs and TEs?”

Seb, Thanks for the email! Over the years I’ve certainly had some thoughts on which positions you should go for first, but no matter what I decide, it always changes on draft day. I think nabbing RBs and WRs early is very important, but the value in the draft makes all the difference. I try to tier my rankings so that I know I’m always getting the best positional value and still getting good overall value. I like to start trends. Like in Round 5, if none of the TEs have been drafted yet, it’s a good time to get your favorite guy, maybe Antonio Gates or Dallas Clark or Jermichael Finley – because it’s always better to start a trend than grab on the back of one. I’m not saying go get a TE in the 4th round, not at all, I’m just saying, if it’s good value at the time, it’s not bad to be a trend setter. (but never get a defense or a kicker early in the draft – never…ever!) I still think RB is the most important position, though WR has made a run at the top spot over the last few years. RBs touch the ball more than anyone else except for QBs (but you usually only get 1 QB in your starting line-up). Because of that, they have the most consistent production and that’s huge. If you can get 2 great consistent RBs with your first 2 picks (AP, CJ, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, MJD, McCoy, Mendenhall, Steven Jackson) I say go for it. If you can only Cajole a singe one, go ahead and take a star WR in Round 2 and get one of the next tier running backs in Round 3 or Round 4. Good Luck!

My Perfect Draft: 2011 NFL Fantasy Football Draft Kit

Sometimes I get awesome teams, sometimes I end up wondering “how did I draft that team?” but that’s just the way drafts work, I guess. More than any other question, when people write into the site, they ask, “Which positions should I be drafting in certain rounds?” Honestly, I go into a draft trying to find value at every slot, and rarely am I trying to pick a certain position in a certain round. I’ve picked WRs and RBs in the first round depending on who has been picked and who is left. I’ve never picked a QB in the first round, mainly because there is usually only 1 starting QB on each fantasy team and there are 7 very good options, plus a bunch of other guys that I’d be okay starting – Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Freeman, Matthew Stafford, even Sam Bradford and, gulp, Kyle Orton to name a few. So I don’t see much value in going with a QB in round 1.

This article is a reenactment of my perfect draft. When everything went my way. When I waited and struck gold, when I took a chance and the chips fell perfectly. I’ll explain how everything went my way. Here it is, The Best “Real” Team ever.

I picked 1st, not usually a position I’m looking to be at, but hey, you rarely (never) get to pick your draft slot. With my first pick, I’m choosing between Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, and Chris Johnson (if I don’t think there’s a chance he holds out). I eliminated CJ, because I grade him right about equal with Peterson and Foster, and I don’t need that question. I end up going with Peterson because he’s a freak of nature and I think Ben Tate gets some of Foster’s carries this season – or at least that’s how I justify it. To be quite honest, I don’t think you can miss with that decision. Here’s the rest of Round 1.

Round 1

LL-me	Adrian Peterson
GL	Arian Foster
FSE	Chris Johnson
GES	Ray Rice
CHE	LeSean McCoy
JYJ	Calvin Johnson
DTR	Andre Johnson
JD	Jamaal Charles
CRM	Rashard Mendenhal
JAF	Larry Fitzgerald
FP	Roddy White
JSS	Michael Vick

Round 2

JSS	Frank Gore
FP	Darren McFadden
JAF	Maurice Jones-Drew
CRM	Peyton Hillis
JD	Aaron Rodgers
DTR	Matt Forte
JYJ	Hakeem Nicks
CHE	Michael Turner
GES	Mark Ingram
FSE	Drew Brees
GL	Legarrette Blount
LL-me	Steven Jackson

As you can see, it’s a 12 team league, so already I’m not expecting to have some all star team. When I’m looking at the 24th pick I’m hoping for one of my RBs in my Top 3 Tiers or a Top 5 WR – unless Vick or Rodgers were still on the board, I wouldn’t take a QB. As you can see, there was a Top 5 WR left on the board. AJ, CJ, Roddy, Fitz and Nicks were all gone, but Greg Jennings (4th) was on board. To my smiling surprise, Steven Jackson (12th, 4th in Tier 3) was also there for the taking. Two of my elite players at picks 24 and 25 and even if the draft went terribly wrong from here, I’d be just fine…

Round 3

LL-me	Greg Jennings
GL	Reggie Wayne
FSE	Mike Wallace
GES	Vincent Jackson
CHE	Miles Austin
JYJ	Knowshon Moreno
DTR	Ahmad Bradshaw
JD	Dwayne Bowe
CRM	Wes Welker
JAF	Mike Williams (TB)
FP	Felix Jones
JSS	Ryan Matthews

But it doesn’t. The draft goes GREAT from here. The one question I had when going RB/WR with my 2nd and 3rd picks was if there would be a Top 7 QB left on the board when I picked 23 picks later. My answer was no. As I mentioned above, I want a Top 7 guy because I think they are that much better than everyone else. I’m stunned when 4 of those guys were left on the board through the first half of Round 4. I’m gonna get Tom Brady! Picked. Okay, no biggy, I’ll get Manning. Picked. Rivers. Picked… Dang! But wait, this is the perfect draft, I’m telling you, because despite needs at QB, nobody takes Tony Romo. I get one of my Elite 7 with the last pick of Round 4.

Round 4

JSS	DeSean Jackson
FP	Jahvid Best
JAF	Marques Colston
CRM	Brandon Marshall
JD	Peyton Manning
DTR	Philip Rivers
JYJ	Tom Brady
CHE	Dez Bryant
GES	DeAngelo Williams
FSE	Shonn Green
GL	Jeremy Maclin
LL-me	Tony Romo

Round 5 is where the choice got interesting. Normally I would just take the best WR or RB here and smile all the way to the bank – but I was hitting it big here so I reconsidered as my minute and thirty second time limit ticked down. If I went WR, I was choosing between Holmes, Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Manningham, Britt, Boldin, and Steve Smith (CAR). If I went RB, I was choosing between Jon Stewart, Ryan Grant, Fred Jackson, Beanie Wells, and Marshawn Lynch. None of those guys are elite in my book. I asked myself if I’d have a chance at a top tier TE with my next pick. I don’t need a top guy, but the answer was a surefire NO, even though a TE hadn’t been taken yet. So, I grabbed the most elite player at his position left on the board, Antonio Gates.

Round 5

LL-me	Antonio Gates
GL	Jonathan Stewart
FSE	Jermichael Finley
GES	Dallas Clark
CHE	Jason Witten
JYJ	Steve Johnson
DTR	Santonio Holmes
JD	Austin Collie
CRM	Brandon Lloyd
JAF	Vernon Davis
FP	Anquan Boldin
JSS	Kenny Britt

Again I waited all those picks, and I saw a couple of my guys go off the board, Ocho went late and I was excited that he might fall. Percy Harvin as well, I like him more than most. But I was still elated to get a #1 RB who was very good, Ryan Grant. I know Grant was out for a full year, but hey, he was out for a FULL year. That’s better than going through that injury 7 months ago. I think his upside is #2 fantasy RB and I’m getting him as my flex in the end of Round 6 – awesome. Then I’m choosing between a couple of the WRs I almost grabbed with my last pick. Steve Smith and Manningham… I choose Smith because he’s one of my favorite players. Yes, even I do that sometimes….8 Rounds in the books and my team is loaded!

Round 6

JSS	Michael Crabtree
FP	Matt Schaub
JAF	Beanie Wells
CRM	Owen Daniels
JD	Sidney Rice
DTR	Fred Jackson
JYJ	Jimmy Graham
CHE	Marshawn Lynch
GES	Chad Ochocinco
FSE	Percy Harvin
GL	BenJarvus Green-Ellis
LL-me	Ryan Grant

Round 7

LL-me	Steve Smith (CAR)
GL	Cedric Benson
FSE	Pierre Garcon
GES	Pierre Garcon
CHE	Ben Roethlisberger
JYJ	Ryan Torain
DTR	Julio Jones
JD	Mike Williams (Sea)
CRM	Matt Ryan
JAF	Daniel Thomas
FP	Brandon Petitgrew
JSS	Darren Sproles

Round 8 goes by relatively quickly and apparently nobody believes in Manningham like I do, because he’s still sitting for me with a bow on his head when I pick him at the end of the Round. Guys like Robert Meachem, Mike Williams (Sea), Steve Smith (Phi) and Malcom Floyd have already been chosen, and honestly, in a big money league, I probably would have taken Mario over Steve Smith. There might not be another feeling (in fantasy) better than deciding between two players, waiting 23 picks, then picking the same player you were a coin toss away from taking before. Glorious.

Round 8

JSS	LaDainian Tomlinson
FP	Philadelphia Eagles
JAF	Eli Manning
CRM	Tim Hightower
JD	Reggie Bush
DTR	Steven Smith (Phi)
JYJ	Mike Tolbert
CHE	Robert Meachem
GES	C.J. Spiller
FSE	Santana Moss
GL	Malcom Floyd
LL-me	Mario Manningham

At the start of Round 9, there isn’t a ton left that I’m enthusiastic about. LT, Hightower (before he became the most likely starter for Washington), James Starks (who maybe I should have taken to handcuff the GB running situation), a couple guys who had good years a long time ago in Plax, Roy Williams, and Deion Branch, and a rookie named A.J. Green. Seriously? A.J. Green? The best WR prospect to come to the NFL since Calvin Johnson…. You bet! I know Carson would rather pick blueberries and throw cantaloupes through tires than play for the Bengals, and I get it. I also know that it looks like another red head (two red heads don’t make a right) Andy Dalton (the rookie from TCU) is taking over in Cincinnati – which means a passing dynamo the Bengals will not be realistic. But so what. He’s the surefire #1 WR on a team that will always be losing. Plus, he’s flat out elite in the whole talent area. I’ll take my chances in Round 9.

Round 9

LL-me	A.J. Green
GL	Joseph Addai
FSE	New York Jets
GES	Ryan Williams (pre-inj)
CHE	Green Bay Packers
JYJ	Danny Amendola
DTR	James Starks
JD	Davone Bess
CRM	Roy WIlliams
JAF	Deion Branch
FP	Plaxico Burress
JSS	Tony Gonzalez

Round 10

JSS	Lance Moore
FP	Michael Bush
JAF	Matthew Stafford
CRM	Sam Bradford
JD	Pierre Thomas
DTR	Marcedes Lewis
JYJ	Greg Olsen
CHE	Brandon Jacobs
GES	Mike Thomas
FSE	Thomas Jones
GL	Rashad Jennings
LL-me	Joe Flacco

Once again I wait forever, but I don’t see too many guys (maybe Joseph Addai, I guess, but just as a bye week guy) that I like running off the board until Matthew Stafford and Sam Bradford go back to back – I love both those guys and all their upside potential, especially as #2 QBs. Mike Thomas goes, and he’s another guy I was interested in, though honestly how interesting can the air attack in Jacksonville be? Tic-tac-toe – that’s how interesting. So I don’t fret a bit, especially when I get Joe Flacco and Braylon Edwards in back to back picks. The 12th pick in Round 10, and Braylon in Round 11 – are you kidding me? This can’t get any better. I LOVE when guys like Flacco change in value so much from one year to another in the complete opposite direction than they should be. Flacco was everyone’s darling in 2010. He was going too high because Boldin was going to make him elite. This year he picks up Lee Evans and has a healthier offensive line, and sure enough, he’s falling behind guys he outscored last year – and he’s young, and has a cannon – oh, and a good team. Come on, guys, he’s going to get better! And Edwards, I know I’m taking a shot, but this is a great deal for a super talented guy that is going to play for a coach that he loves, in a place where he will end up being the #1 receiver, and to boot, a place that he wanted to play for to prove himself – so much so that he took less money to go there. This is awesome. When Michael Crabtree and his princess boots got picked with the first selection of Round 6 I typed into the chat window, “I’d rather have Braylon Edwards and he plays on the same team.” I thought I was the only one that felt this way until 3 or 4 guys chimed in, me too… So I get a guy that most people would rather have, but 5+ rounds later. Brilliant.

Round 11

LL-me	Braylon Edwards
GL	Danny Woodhead
FSE	Ronnie Brown
GES	Jay Cutler
CHE	Jerome Simpson
JYJ	Kevin Kolb
DTR	Mike Sims-Walker
JD	Jacoby Ford
CRM	Rob Gronkowski
JAF	Johnny Knox
FP	Donovan McNabb
JSS	Ryan Fitzpatrick

I finished off my draft with two high upside guys. If James Jones ends up getting some of Driver’s looks, he’ll be a steal. He’s better than Driver right now, so all Donald has to do is lose another half step and the difference will be so great that Jones starts producing like his new contract expects. Roy Helu Jr. could end up being the RB in Washington, and if he does, he’s going to be solid, because everyone that is the RB for a Shanny team produces. Then a defense (I choose the Cowboys over the Patriots, but I slightly regret that now, because I am crazy about all the moves and young kids the Pats made/have – but Dallas is very talented as well – plus it’s a D, what gives?). And I took Alex Henery, the Philly youngster who will undoubtedly capitalize on a Philly offense that produces big plays then stalls out from time to time. FG central!

Round 12

JSS	Donald Brown
FP	Visanthe Shiancoe
JAF	Tashard Choice
CRM	Andre Roberts
JD	Anthony Dixon
DTR	Dustin Keller
JYJ	Montario Hardesty
CHE	Early Doucet
GES	Lance Kendricks
FSE	Matt Cassel
GL	Chris Cooley
LL-me	James Jones

Round 13

LL-me	Roy Helu
GL	David Garrard
FSE	Kellen Winslow
GES	Steve Breaston
CHE	Tarvaris Jackson
JYJ	Matt Bryant
DTR	PIttsburgh Steelers
JD	Zach Miller
CRM	Shane Vareen
JAF	Arrelious Benn
FP	Sebastian Janikowski
JSS	Cam Newton

Round 14

JSS	New Orleans Saints
FP	Nate Washington
JAF	Baltimore Ravens
CRM	Josh Brown
JD	Nate Kaeding
DTR	Lee Evans
JYJ	Greg Little
CHE	DeMarco Murray
GES	New York Giants
FSE	Rob Bironas
GL	Stephen Gostkowski
LL-me	Dallas Cowboys

Round 15

LL-me	Alex Henery
GL	New England Patriots
FSE	Hines Ward
GES	David Buehler
CHE	Mason Crosby
JYJ	San Diego Chargers
DTR	Dan Carpenter
JD	Miami Dolphins
CRM	Arizona Cardinals
JAF	Nick Folk
FP	Louis Murphy
JSS	Neil Rackers

So there’s my perfect draft. I got everyone after when I would have taken them had I somehow stockpiled earlier picks in each round. You can’t get all the greatest players on your team, don’t be confused, but you can have the perfect draft. It was top notch from top to bottom, has great balance, sure things, and upside galore! I hope your draft goes this well, then we can celebrate our championships in unison!

Here’s my full roster, with the position of the player and the Round that I drafted that player on the left – their name, of course, is on the right. At least now I have a perfect draft so when people ask me which rounds they should draft people in I could use this as a template… if everyone in that league drafted like everyone in my league… Good Luck!!!

LuckyLesterDotCom

QB-4	Tony Romo
QB-10	Joe Flacco
RB-1	Adrian Peterson
RB-2	Steven Jackson
RB-6	Ryan Grant
RB-13	Roy Helu Jr.
WR-3	Greg Jennings
WR-7	Steve Smith (Car)
WR-8	Mario Manningham
WR-9	A.J. Green
WR-11	Braylon Edwards
WR-12	James Jones
TE-5	Antonio Gates
K-15	Alex Henery
D/ST	Dallas Cowboys

Good, Better, Best: 2011 NFL Fantasy Draft Kit

Good, Better, Best

It’s time. Drafts are really starting to get serious as the preseason winds down. Some of the preseason action has given us reason to believe in the unheralded youngsters while there have been some serious stars absent enough for the fantasy folks to start worrying. Do you draft Peyton Manning the same spot you would have with his injury uncertainty? How about Maurice Jones Drew and his knee dilemma? Are handcuffs more important now? I’m not here to draw out all the scenarios, the answers to all the questions, but I’ve definitely come across some differences in opinion.

The mother ship, ESPN, is the biggest fantasy center around. So I like to use their rankings/projections as a common stomping ground. In this article, I’ll take three players that I like, players that I think are fairly even, put them in projection order from good to best, list their ESPN ranking next to their name, and explain which guys I like better than the others. I’d give you an example, but I might as well just get down to business. Hopefully this helps on draft day.

Peyton Manning (5), Philip Rivers (3), Tom Brady (4): In our tiered rankings, it’s Manning ahead of Rivers, but the preseason has shown me a couple things. One, I’m worried about the Colts. They have been nothing short of pathetic in two preseason games, and while they usually stink in that area, and while they always stink with Manning out, it still scares me. Then Manning’s injury question marks are there too. Rivers and Brady are starting in Week 1, I like them more. I’m taking Brady over Rivers not because he has more weapons or his team is that much better – I just think the coaching staff in New England is better. I expect Ryan Matthews to run it a little more this season – and like clockwork, I expect Brady to continue to huck it. The Patriots are setting up for an amazing season. I expect great things from Tom.

Matt Ryan (11), Josh Freeman (10), Matthew Stafford (17): Listen, I’m not here to play the what if game. I know Stafford has been injury prone and Matt Ryan has been proclaimed the next great arm. I know the Freeman has only begun to come into his own, and that many people expect a step backwards. I know that Ryan comes with “no risk” and a loaded machine gun clip of weapons (Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner) but I don’t know – I just expect him to be the same, maybe even a small step back this season. I think Freeman stays the same, and I may be shooting for the moon with Stafford loans, but hey, if Matthew stays healthy, he’s going to be reeling in the touchdowns!

DeAngelo Williams (16), Legarrette Blount (25), Ryan Matthews (22): Let’s not get crazy here, I don’t hate DeAngelo or think that Blount will take a step back  – nope, in fact, I think all three of these guys are GREAT VALUE on draft day. I was just in a draft in a good league where Matt Forte went for $30 and Matthews went for $15 – I’d be stunned if they are not within a few points of each other by season’s end. I was the same guy that wasn’t crazy about Matthews last year – but he looked like a star to me, especially late. Blount is a beast. That pretty much says it all, but hopefully he stays true to the task. I think Williams is a top-notch running back, and while J-Stew still sits in Carolina, the Panthers brass obviously thought Williams was #1 material. They paid him like he is. I think he’ll be better than many expect, but not compared to Blount and Matthews. All 3 will be in the top 20, but not in ESPN’s order.

Willis McGehee (44), Ben Tate (81), Roy Helu Jr.(62): In my tiered rankings I have Helu above McGehee above Tate, but I think I’ve moved Helu Jr. ahead of Tate based off his chances to be the man where he’s at. I think Tate is the most talented, but talent doesn’t always go with upside in fantasy football. If Helu Jr. gets the nod in Washington he has the size, speed, and running style to flourish in a Shanahan scheme. Of the three he’s the closest to a starting gig. Tate looks like a stud to me, but Arian Foster is a stud. Best handcuff out there? Possibly. The reason I go Tate over McGehee is upside. Willis certainly has something left, and Moreno hasn’t been too impressive, so it’s possible he gets a big chunk of carries – but I don’t see greatness in the cards, and drafting late I’m all about upside!

Dwayne Bowe (10), DeSean Jackson (13), Vincent Jackson (12): I’m not crazy about Bowe. I get scared when a guy gets most of his fantasy points in 5 games smack dab in the middle of the season and completely disappears against top corners. What he has going for him is that he’s a beast and the defenses going up against the Chiefs are worrying about him after that rushing attack. He gets the ball, he makes a guy miss, there’s not much back there to stop him. But he’s a distant third in this group. DeSean Jackson has a ton of upside, but he’s a scary WR sometimes. He is a ghost in some games, plus he’s playing this season with a frown on his face because of his salary size. I still think he’s an upgrade from Bowe, but he’s no Vincent. VJ should get back into the Top 8 this season. He’s a freak of nature and Philip Rivers will go to him 1st. With a decent rushing attack and a TE that everyone has to look out for, Jackson will get his best season in the books!

Need some more projections? Check out my TIERED RANKINGS!

Ask Papa Weimer #2: 2011 NFL Draft Kit

Back at it again. A week of emails have come in and I continue to answer them with my best foot forward – whatever the hell that means. I wish I could answer them with my best back forward – I’d trade a couple retirement checks for a best back right about now. Anyway, below are some answer to some email questions. Feel free to join in on the fun and question the king of the fantasy realm – me and Tolkien, right? Get to me at papaweimer50@hotmail.com – I’ll get back to you as prompt as possible.

DBM in one of the Dakotas asks, “How will Marshawn and Sydney Rice do in Seattle this year?”

I think the Seahawks will be much better offensively, and it all centers around the offensive line. James Carpenter is a good RT prospect that does everything pretty well, he’s not a liability in pass or run blocking, and is above average at both. Robert Gallery is a great addition as well, probably the best OG on the market. The Hawks had the worst offensive line in football last year, and now with rookies and 2nd year guys, plus a big FA addition, they’ll be better. I like that Tarvaris Jackson comes over as a leader, one of the most knowledgeable players on the team about the offense they’ll be running in Seattle (because, like him, it came from Minnesota). As a leader, and teacher, he’ll have much more confidence to what’s going on, and I think that will help him a ton – because remember, he was always the guy they dumbed down the offense for when he was in – that does nothing for your confidence. You ask little of someone, you get little in return. I don’t know where Rice is going in drafts, but as my #3 receiver I like his upside. He’ll lead the Hawks in receiving this year.

David in Minnesota writes, “I am in a keeper league and I can keep up to 4 players.If I keep 4 – I will lose my first 4 picks, if I keep 3 then I will lose my first 3 picks etc. Next bit of info I will be drafting 11th in each round. It is a snake draft without reversing. Here are the players I am trying to figure out who to keep and how many. What do you think? (Brady, MJD, Bradshaw, Best, Sid Rice, Stevie Johnson, Colston, Welker)

I would probably only keep 2, maybe 3 guys on your squad. The only reason I would keep 3 is because your pick is so late in Round 3 – but so early in Round 4, so you have to take a chance and hope you can get a better 4th player. Brady and MJD (unless you trade for Charles) are sure thing keepers, obviously. They are both Top 2 round players, and so you keep them. After that, I don’t see any given there. I think Best is your next best upside player, and while I ranked him as a 4th round guy prior to LeShoure’s season ending injury, he might be a nicer risk as a 3rd rounder now. I would consider Colston over Best, if you think the draft will be more RB heavy than WR heavy – they are both very close to me, but I’d go with Best without knowledge of other rosters. Welker, maybe, but he’s limited in non-ppr leagues, and I think he’s right around Colston’s grade, with not as much upside. Because you’re one of the highest 4th round picks, take a chance and see if you can’t upgrade at WR. Good luck!

David gets another questions off in a lengthy email… “Would you think of a trade for Jamaal Charles, giving up MJD and one of my receivers? A guy in our league has no receivers…”

It’s pretty well documented that I picked Charles as the #1 back in fantasy for the upcoming season. Since I don’t think you should keep any of your receivers, I’d say yeah, jump in and make that deal. Lucky says “no don’t do it, MJD is more consistent” but hey, he says it’s close, and my feeling has always been my feeling, and since this isn’t “Ask Lucky Lester” I’m pretty sure I’m gonna say what I want. Charles has the upside and the offensive line to be the best running back in fantasy. He’s lightning quick and doesn’t take big hits. MJD doesn’t have his upside, if you can get him and all it’s really gonna cost you is MJD (who I rank behind Charles, Peterson, C Johnson, Foster, and Ray Rice) then do it!

Fantasy Football Sleepers: 2011 NFL Draft Kit

Fantasy Football Sleepers: 2011 NFL Draft Kit

The thing about fantasy football is that it’s almost difficult to mess up those first 4 picks. Yes, in four rounds, if you don’t walk away with 4 pretty dang good players, you are one of the 12% that blew it. (Of course injuries can derail you from the get go, Ryan Grant last year, Tom Brady the year before that – but that’s a different beast).

I’ve seen guys pick their favorite defense in Round 4, I’ve seen homers take their favorite player in Round 2 (and no, there was never a point where Drew Bledsoe was a 2^nd round fantasy player, but when you have friends that went to WSU, crazy business can happen in fantasy leagues!). These are what you call “Donators”. Donators join fantasy football leagues for the camaraderie, the banter, a reason to follow the game in more depth, and of course… to donate money to the league pool. You don’t pick the Cowboys D in Round 4 unless you are a Donator. Everyone loves a Donator, they make draft day fun and give you better chances to win.

The point is, your draft isn’t made in the first few rounds or every team in your league would be good (unless you have a donator). Every team in your league isn’t good, that’s a guarantee, so the fact of the matter is, the separation between Fantasy team Good and Fantasy team Bad are every addition from Round 5 until defenses and kickers become the small fat unskilled guy picked last for two hand touch at recess.

So how are you going to dominate those rounds and build a fantasy championship level squad? Get value, and lots of it. How you going to do that? Get a note pad and a pen, read this article, write some of these names down, draft them on draft day, then email the site and thank me later. Here are my 2011 great value picks, also known as sleepers. (I’ll have a DEEP SLEEPER article in a week or so, so stay tuned for that – covering undrafted guys that could really impress).

This is where you’ll see me differ from my site rankings – for example, I like A.J. Green more than Michael Crabtree, a little different from our rankings. I’ll try to explain why when the time comes, but for the most part, these are guys that we (collective whole at LL.com) have ranked above other fantasy sites.

All players in this article are ranked outside the Top 60, meaning they are usually picked after the first 6 rounds of the draft. Next to their names, I’ve listed their “average draft positions” (ADP) as well as a couple guys drafted ahead of them that they are better than.

(Check out my full positional tiered rankings here: QB Tiers – RB Tiers – WR Tiers – TE Tiers – D/ST Tiers)

Here it goes…

QB: This is an interesting one because I’ve hated Cutler in the past, have always overrated Bradford, and have written some bad things about Cassell. The bottom line here is that it doesn’t matter who you like and hate, it’s all about value and that team/player improving. I wouldn’t think that Roy Williams would help many teams, but shoot, he’ll help Chicago. So Will Cutler getting his A in shape and working on quarterbacking things all summer. Expect more TDs and less INTs from lumpy. Bradford will have more targets, another year of football and health, and a better team under him. He’s sooo accurate. Cassel had some ups and downs, but look at the kid’s production last year – he was real good. And you know defenses will continue to key on that rushing attack.

1. Jay Cutler (ADP: 103) (Better than: Eli Manning, Josh Freeman, Matt Ryan)

2. Sam Bradford (ADP: 114) (Better than: Colt McCoy, Mark Sanchez, Eli Manning)

3. Matt Cassel (ADP: 120)  (Better than: Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow, McNabb, Newton, McCoy)

RB: I don’t know what I like about Lynch. He’s faster than he gets credit for and is more two dimensional than the Hawks used him for last season. He averaged 4 yards per carry in his first two seasons, and caught 47 balls in his sophomore campaign. The Hawks have a much improved offensive line and a QB that has to be accounted for. Beanie Wells will have his best season as a pro, which isn’t saying much. But I expect defenses to give a crap about the passing game in Arizona, something they didn’t do last year. Beanie will have more room, and if he doesn’t get hurt, what a steal on draft day. Felix Jones is a super talented runner than produced some good stuff late last season. He’ll be better than the guys he’s drafted behind. DeAngelo Williams is hardly a sleeper, but I really think a lot of him. I know he’ll be better than Matthews or Bradshaw, the Panthers offensive line is better and healthier and yes, I think Newton is more help to that offense than Jimmy Claussen. Williams has been good with Delhomme at QB, so he’s used to doing work.

1. Marshawn Lynch (ADP: 96) (Better than: LeShoure, D. Thomas, Moreno, Stewart, Benson)

2. Beanie Wells (ADP: 122) (Better than: Spiller, Helu, Murray, Ryan Williams, Reggie Bush, L.T.)

3. Felix Jones (ADP: 98) (Better than: Fred Jackson, LeShoure, Moreno, Stewart)

4. DeAngelo Williams (ADP: 68) (Better than: Ryan Matthews, Ahmad Bradshaw)

WR: Everyone thinks that Edwards’ value dives in San Francisco. That’s good, because I think it rises. New head coach, Harabaugh is a good coach. Edwards is a super talented player. Braylon signed for 1 million to play under a guy he really respects. Braylon will be the best receiver in San Francisco. Mike Thomas gets no love, but since I’ve done nothing but love this guy since he was in college, I’m giving everyone a heads up. He’s the #1 receiver in Jax, which means little except that he’s going to be better than most of the people ranked around him, because he’s ranked like a slot WR. Sims-Walker is a high-risk high-reward player, expect that he’s low risk. Yes, at pick 120, you’re not risking all that much. He could end up being a big fast #1 WR for one of the more accurate young QBs ever. James Jones was paid pretty well to be a 4^th receiver in Green Bay – in fact, he was paid like a #2. Every site has Driver and Nelson (and Jennings, but he should be) ranked ahead of Jones, but James will outperform both those guys and a bunch of guys picked ahead of him on draft day.

1. Braylon Edwards (ADP: 113) (Better than: Julio Jones, Mike Williams (sea), Santana Moss, Knox, Burress)

2. Mike Thomas (ADP: 127) (Better than Lee Evans, Burleson, Baldwin, Greg Little, Jordy Nelson)

3. Mike Sims-Walker (ADP: 120) (Better than: Donald Driver, Hines Ward, Deion Branch, Devin Hester, Malcom Floyd)

4. James Jones (ADP: 135) (Donald Driver, Deion Branch, Greg Little, Jordy Nelson)

TE: Cooley is a great receiver and probably the best target Washington has. He dropped a bunch of balls last year, but this guy gets heavy targets and is good after the catch. He’ll be a Top 10 guy for sure, probably Top 7. Jared Cook doesn’t get much love, but Hasselbeck likes to go to the TE (he can’t throw real far, and TE’s usually run shallower routes) and if Locker takes over, he’ll look for the big guy. Cook is very athletic and should be consistent all season.

1. Chris Cooley (ADP: 128) (Better than: Marcedes Lewis, Heath Miller, Shockey, Kevin Boss, Todd Heap, Petitgrew, Tony Gonzalez, Winslow)

2. Jared Cook (ADP: 139) (Ben Watson, Greg Olsen, Todd Heap, Shockey, Heath Miller)

D: Dallas is at least better than all those teams I listed, and maybe more. They have a very good defensive coordinator in tow, they’ve always been talented, and they played much better after Garrett took over last season. Carolina has a solid young defense with good returning players and an offense that will hold the ball longer – last year they were on the field forever!

1. Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 119) (Better than: Houston, Indianapolis, San Diego, Minnesota)

2.  Carolina Panthers (ADP: Undrafted) (Better than: Denver, Oakland, Arizona, Miami)

K: I’m only putting kickers in here to prove to you that you don’t need to ever pick a kicker before the last round of your draft (unless you’re in a 2/3 kicker league in which case you don’t need to be angry at me for writing this, you just need to get the heck out of that league). Scobee is an accurate cat that cat drill deep field goals, and the offense will move the ball a little better (but still struggle to score) in 2011. Henery will be the guy for the quick hitting Eagles, that could leave many a field goal attempt for the youngster.

1. Josh Scobee (ADP: 117) (Better than: Shuisham, Josh Brown, Akers)

2. Alex Henery (ADP: 126) (Better than: Feely, Jsoh Brown, Cundiff)

Tiered Fantasy Rankings D/ST: Draft Kit

With camps started and most additions and subtractions already done, it was time to get my first set of rankings out there. I already have my QB Tiers – RB Tiers – WR Tiers and TE Tiers, so without anymore delay, here are my Defensive tiers.

If you don’t know about tiered rankings, read this, it might help – “How To Use Tiered Rankings” – I’ll do my best to get my complete All Position Tiered Rankings done here in the next week or so. Until then, enjoy, and feel free to write in with any questions. Any mail to papaweimer50@hotmail.com gets forwarded to the site, so shoot us some disagreements if you please!

Defense/Special Teams

DST Tier I

Pittsburgh Steelers
Green Bay Packers
New York Jets

Tier II

Philadelphia Eagles
Baltimore Ravens
Chicago Bears

Tier III

Dallas Cowboys
Atlanta Falcons
New England Pats

Tier IV

Detroit Lions
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants
Kansas City Chiefs
Minnesota Vikings
San Francisco 49ers
Tennessee Titans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tier V

Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams
Carolina Panthers
Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders
Houston Texans

They haven’t made unbelievable moves this off-season, but it’s tough to bet against the Steelers, Packers, and Jets. They just have that dominant defensive game plan, they play at a speed that only the Ravens match, and they are still young enough to be dominant.

The Ravens, Bears, and Eagles were all considered for that top tier spot – but despite the additions Philly made in their secondary and pass rush (Nnamdi and Jason Babin) I’m just not sure they’ll be good enough up front at stopping the run to be a top tier defense. The Ravens are getting older and still need pass rush help and the Bears are solid, but one wonders if they’re tough enough up the middle on the defensive line. All three are great defenses, no doubt, but that’s why they weren’t in the top tier.

The Patriots did a great job in the off-season, adding one of the best 4-3 DTs in the game (Albert Haynesworth). They also are interested in Tommie Harris, and like always, I’m sure they’ll get him to play to his potential. They are a very young defense in the secondary, and a year of growth will certainly do them well.

Dallas will almost surely be solid this year. They get a very good defensive coordinator and talent has never been a problem for them. Expect big things from Rob Ryan in Big D.

The Lions jump out at me as a winner in the draft, and their youth will be improved this year. I don’t know how teams will deal with their stud defensive tackles.

The Saints and Giants are always solid, especially up front. Their pressure on opposing offenses really creates problems, and then turnovers. Defenses are tough to predict on a year to year basis, don’t spend too much on them unless your league has special rules awarding points for yardage against and higher scoring bonuses.

TE Tiered Fantasy Football Rankings: 2011 Draft Kit

With camps started and most additions and subtractions already done, it was time to get my first set of rankings out there. I already have my QB Tiers – RB Tiers and WR Tiers finished, with just Ds hoping to get finished by Tuesday.

If you don’t know about tiered rankings, read this, it might help – “How To Use Tiered Rankings“

It used to be a nothing position, right in line with kickers, but it’s deeper than ever before – Tight Ends!

TE Tier I

Antonio Gates
Dallas Clark
Jermichael Finley

Tier II

Vernon Davis
Jason Witten

Tier III

Zach Miller
Owen Daniels
Chris Cooley

Tier IV

Brandon Petitgrew
Tony Gonzalez
Mercedes Lewis
Jimmy Graham
Jermaine Gresham
Kellen Winslow
Dustin Keller
Rob Gronkowski

Tier V

Brent Celek
Vinsanthe Shiancoe
John Carlson
Heath Miller
Jared Cook
Greg Olson
Toni Moeaki
Kevin Boss
Aaron Hernandez
Lance Kendricks
Ed Dixon
Todd Heap
Ben Watson
Anthony Fasano

Not as many tiers in the field of TEs, but that’s because you should almost never own more than 1 – since there’s 32 starters, that leaves a bunch of guys that could play in case of injury. We’d love to have a guy from the first 3 tiers of TEs because even at the bottom of that group, the potential upside is high. It all starts with Antonio Gates, and we were 1 foot injury away from putting him in a tier all by himself. Because Clark and Finley are so talented, and have such huge roles in their respective passing attacks, they deserve to be here with Gates. Not one of these guys was healthy in 2010, but we have big dreams in ’11.

Vernon Davis and Witten sit by themselves in Tier 2 and that’s because they just haven’t been good enough to get into Tier 1, but they are both talented enough to be the top TE in the league. I have a feeling Witten is going to have a big year, but there’s a lot of talent out wide in Dallas, and the running game should be better this season. Davis still has Alex Smith throwing him the ball, but as the team’s #1 receiver, he’ll get the looks.

Zach Miller still doesn’t have a team, but if he can be good in Oakland, he can be good anywhere. Ideally he’ll go to a place where he’s a Top 2 target – if so, he’ll be great, even as the 3rd guy, he’ll impress – but if he’s the #1 guy again, he doesn’t have Top 2 tier upside. Owen Daniels had what was close to a lost year, he just didn’t get up to speed until late. The “until late” part of that has us excited, because he was impressive down the stretch, and that’s the guy we always thought was the 2nd best WR in Houston. Chris Cooley is the best ball catcher in Washington, and we expect Beck to use him early and often. Fewer drops in 2011 will go a long way for Cooley’s fantasy stock.

These are the last group of guys we’d feel comfortable starting – but they are a step down from the first three tiers. Petitgrew has great PPR upside with all the balls he gets. Not a big play threat, but consistency from the TE is nice. Gonzalez is old, but still good – we’re unsure how many looks he’ll get with White and now Julio Jones on the other side. Lewis had a great year, but we are always scared about Jacksonville’s passing offense. Graham and Gresham should be much better in 2011, they are both very talented. Winslow still has the talent to be a starter at TE, but he got lost a couple times last season – Keller and Gronkowski both have TD upside for good teams.

Tier 5 has some guys that have been good players – Celek, Shiancoe, Carlson, Miller, Olson, Heap, Watson and Boss – they’ve all been Top 10 TEs at some point over the last 5 seasons – but looking at the way it stacks up, we’re just not sure about these guys.

Tiered WR Rankings: 2011 Draft Kit

Because there are still additions and cuts going down, the list might change a little bit here and there, but this is what we feel strongly about right now. I’ve already have my QB Tiers and RB Tiers locked down, with TEs, and Ds up by Tuesday.

If you don’t know about tiered rankings, read this, it might help – “How To Use Tiered Rankings”

Here’s the position that’s as important now as it has ever been, Wide Receivers!

WR Tier I

Andre Johnson
Roddy White

Tier II

Calvin Johnson
Greg Jennings
Hakeem Nicks
Reggie Wayne
Larry Fitzgerald

Tier III

Miles Austin
DeSean Jackson
Mike Wallace
Vincent Jackson

Tier IV

Dez Bryant
Jeremy Maclin
Marques Colston
Dwayne Bowe
Brandon Marshall
Wes Welker

Tier V

Santanio Holmes
Anquan Boldin
Chad Johnson
Steve Smith
Kenny Britt
Brandon Lloyd
Mike Williams
Stevie Johnson
Percy Harvin
Sidney Rice
Michael Crabtree
Marion Manningham
Braylon Edwards
A.J. Green

Tier VI

Santana Moss
Pierre Garcon
Austin Collie
Jonny Knox
Mike Thomas
James Jones
Julio Jones
Roy Williams
Plaxico Burress

Tier VII

Jordy Nelson
Emanuel Sanders
Mike Sims-Walker
Hines Ward
Malcom Floyd
Mike Willims (sea)
Davone Bess
Donald Driver
Jerome Simpson
Lance Moore
Steve Smith (nyg)
Terrell Owens

Tier VIII

Jacoby Ford
Mark Clayton
Leonard Hankerson
Lee Evans
Golden Tate
Darius Heyward-Bey
Titus Young
Arrelious Benn
Louis Murphy
Josh Morgan
Early Doucett
Nate Burleson
Devin Hester
Danny Amendola
Jabar Gaffney
Donte Stallworth
Brandon Lafell
Jason Hill
Derrick Mason
Randy Moss

AJ and Roddy are the best in the business and their respective teams are dedicated to getting them the ball. Andre’s squad doesn’t have as many weapons, but teams still can’t stop him – he gets the nod as our #1.

Calvin Johnson might be the best receiving prospect ever, and we feel that if Stafford stays healthy in Detroit, he might very well show that this year. Greg Jennings is the #1 for the best arm in the game (accuracy, vision, and cannon) and only Rodgers’ interest in spreading the ball around keeps Jennings away from that top tier – still, his consistency is impressive. Nicks is really coming into his own, and with Steve Smith starting the season hurt (and maybe on another team), Nicks is the guy. Reggie slowed down a bit last year, but if the other threats in Indy stay healthy, Wayne wouldn’t get so much attention and would get chances to beat the defense more often. Larry Fitz squeezed into the 2nd tier, and everyone knows his talent is top tier material. We like Kolb heading to Arizona, but not enough to put him ahead of the rest.

A small tier 3 has some very grand upside. Austin heads the list, but DeSean, Wallace, and Vincent Jackson might all have him beat in upside. Austin gets his signal caller back, however, and with plenty of attention on prized sophomore Dez Bryant, he’ll have room to shine. I’m excited to see what Vincent can do with a full season in San Diego.

Speaking of Dez, he heads our 4th tier. Maclin continues to move up the charts from year to year, and we can only see him getting better this time around. Colston would be a beast if Drew Brees would target him more – and who knows, maybe this year. As is, this is a good spot for him. We have a couple guys on staff worried about Bowe’s chances to match last year’s success. He still has tons of upside.The last two couldn’t be more different – but Marshall needs QB play to finish ahead of Welker, and we all know Wes’s QB will do just fine.

This 5th tier is huge and there are plenty of different kinds on this list. We have youngsters like Mike Williams, Stevie Johnson, Crabtree (might miss first couple weeks of the season), and Percy Harvin (better now with Donovan? but as the #1?). Sidney Rice is still young, but like Chad Johnson, he’s changed area codes – we have Ocho’s move doing more for his fantasy stock than Rice’s. Manningham and Edwards don’t have as much flash, but both could flourish in new roles. Holmes is the surefire #1 in New York, and with a full season he’ll be solid for Sanchez. Boldin and Steve Smith may be getting up there in years, but we’d take the chance on either at this price.

As for the rest, we’re not crazy about any of them as #2 WRs, but there’s plenty of upside in there.