Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat 2011 NBA Finals Game 1 Pick

Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat 2011 NBA Finals Game 1 Pick: The Heat are playing great basketball, but the Mavericks come in beating up on the best in the West, shutting down the Lakers in an epic sweep and ousting the young guns from Oklahoma in fine fashion. Like the Heat, the Mavericks performed admirably late in games, often coming into the final frame down big only to find a way to win anyway. This should be one heck of a series!

In the opener my money is on Dallas and the points. I expect close games throughout, as both teams have the offensive firepower to succeed in tight situations. Dallas has surrounded Dirk with perfect pieces, outside scoring, defensive post presence, and guards that can attack and penetrate. I expect Barea to have a solid series against a Heat team that struggles with dive and dish point guards.

Miami does a very good job of defending the perimeter, but I don’t know if they’ll be able to shut the Mavericks out from three-point land. Dallas can really shoot it, and with all the attention on Dirk, they’ll have their chances.

I’m not confident either way in this series, picking a winner I mean, but in game 1 the pressure has to be on the home team. If Dallas walks away down 1-0, it doesn’t mean much. If the Heat lose early, the media starts going crazy about the “Big 3” and how maybe they don’t fit perfectly together. Miami will need to hit a lot of jumpers against Dallas, and I’m not sure that’s their strong suit. We shall see, but I’ll take the road team in Game 1.

Dallas Mavericks (+5) @ Miami Heat