Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat 2011 NBA Finals Game 1 Pick

Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat 2011 NBA Finals Game 1 Pick: The Heat are playing great basketball, but the Mavericks come in beating up on the best in the West, shutting down the Lakers in an epic sweep and ousting the young guns from Oklahoma in fine fashion. Like the Heat, the Mavericks performed admirably late in games, often coming into the final frame down big only to find a way to win anyway. This should be one heck of a series!

In the opener my money is on Dallas and the points. I expect close games throughout, as both teams have the offensive firepower to succeed in tight situations. Dallas has surrounded Dirk with perfect pieces, outside scoring, defensive post presence, and guards that can attack and penetrate. I expect Barea to have a solid series against a Heat team that struggles with dive and dish point guards.

Miami does a very good job of defending the perimeter, but I don’t know if they’ll be able to shut the Mavericks out from three-point land. Dallas can really shoot it, and with all the attention on Dirk, they’ll have their chances.

I’m not confident either way in this series, picking a winner I mean, but in game 1 the pressure has to be on the home team. If Dallas walks away down 1-0, it doesn’t mean much. If the Heat lose early, the media starts going crazy about the “Big 3” and how maybe they don’t fit perfectly together. Miami will need to hit a lot of jumpers against Dallas, and I’m not sure that’s their strong suit. We shall see, but I’ll take the road team in Game 1.

Dallas Mavericks (+5) @ Miami Heat

2011 NFL Draft Grades by Lucky Lester

Normally a gut feeling thing, based on what a writer thinks of each newly drafted player, the NFL draft grades have very little substance attached, usually. Most guys like me see what Mel Kiper thought, add their own feelings on the importance of a quarterback, then put a nice grade (usually) on each team’s draft. It’s like high school these days, everybody gets good grades so they don’t get their feelings hurt! I’m done with those articles!

I’ve heard that a draft can’t truly be graded until three seasons down the line. But what if we did it differently? What if it was impartial, and driven by pre-draft rankings from multiple sites. This is a true draft grades article. I decided that I was sick of people deciding exactly who they thought had the best draft based on value and talent, often going against their own pre-draft rankings, of course. So, I decided to make my own draft grades format, and it’s all about the difference between where a player was rated (from multiple publications) and drafted.

We’re all about talent and value in this grading system – and, because I made up the system, I think it’s the best way to get the grades right – at least the part of the draft that can be graded before any of these guys play a down of pro football – the value part. There will be Fs, and there will be As, and not everybody will be a winner – because if everyone is a winner, nobody is (write that down).

I originally thought that the Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers had great drafts but as I write this, I have yet to do a single grade so we’ll see if that’s true in my new system.

I used rankings from ESPN Scout’s Inc, and NFL Draft Scout (They have reputable scouting departments, and they have deep rankings, which makes this system possible – Top 100 obviously doesn’t cut it).

I wanted to add in the pre-season value of these guys, before their final college season played out, but that ended up being way too much work (even though I think that’s a great way to assess “potential value” – as a single season, especially the most recent one, can certainly cloud judgment – as we fantasy footballers show just about every year).

Here’s how my rankings work.

For each pick I take the slot the player was drafted in and subtract their average ranking. This will come up with a positive or negative number. Negative means they didn’t get good value, positive means they did.

In the end, I add up all the negatives and positives and see what the outcome is. The goal is to have your 2nd number be lower than your 1st; that means you made the most of your picks. Not every team in the league did that, I’m sure. Below is the grading scale…

Grading Scale

+121+++ 	A+
+91-120 	A
+76-90 		A-
+51-75 		B+
+26-50 		B
+1-25 		B-
-25-0 		C+
-26- 50 	C
-51-75 		C-
-76-100 	D+
-101-125 	D
-125-150 	D-
-151-199 	F+
-200--- 	F

I never rank any players lower than 255, because since there’s only 254 draft picks there really are only 254 ranked players – and everyone else. A ranking of 255 means they weren’t listed as a draftable player by either draft rankings website. I think it’s unfair to rank anybody lower than that, and since it’s my system, my article, and my website – I do what I want. Plus, I think it adds to the validity of the draft grades because teams that take a chance late on the 499th rated player don’t get slaughtered because of it.

While each team has been studied and graded, the team write-ups will get published individually throughout the next few weeks.

Without further ado, I unveil my Ultimate Draft Rankings!!!

Lucky Lester’s True Value Draft Grades

New Orleans Saints 	(A+)
New York Giants 	(A+)
Baltimore Ravens 	(A)
Atlanta Falcons 	(A)
Minnesota Vikings 	(B+)
Miami Dolphins 		(B-)
Denver Broncos 		(B-)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 	(C+)
New York Jets 		(C+)
Pittsburgh Steelers 	(C+)
Kansas City Chiefs 	(C)
Indianapolis Colts 	(C)
Arizona Cardinals 	(C)
Cleveland Browns 	(C)
Houston Texans 		(C-)
Detroit Lions 		(C-)
Dallas Cowboys 		(C-)
San Diego Chargers 	(D)
Cincinnati Bengals 	(D)
Green Bay Packers 	(D)
Chicago Bears 		(F+)
Carolina Panthers 	(F+)
St. Louis Rams 		(F+)
Buffalo Bills 		(F+)
New England Patriots 	(F+)
Oakland Raiders 	(F)
Philadelphia Eagles 	(F)
Tennessee Titans 	(F)
San Francisco 49ers 	(F)
Jacksonville Jaguars 	(F)
Washington Redskins 	(F-)
Seattle Seahawks 	(F-)

Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls Game 2 NBA Free Pick

Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls Game 2 NBA Free Pick: Here’s a crazy statistic for you stat-guys (and girls) out there – the Heat and Bulls have matched up 4 times this season and each game has ended with the Bulls getting a win and the Heat getting a loss. The regular season match-ups were all very close, 99-96, 93-89, and 87-86 – but Game 1 ended up with the Bulls on top of Miami by 21 big ones. Does this guarantee anything in Game 2? Nope, but in what is basically an even bet (favored by just a bucket), the Bulls have to be the percentage pick here.

I think falling behind two games to none will be terrible for the Heat, and I see them fighting like hell to even up the series in Game 2, but for the first time in while, the Heat aren’t the best defensive team on the floor, and it’s very possible that they don’t have the most important player on the floor either.

People play around with the idea of pressure, but there’s never a time where pressure is more evident than in this series. All the pressure in the world is on Miami, and Chicago’s been the better team all season long. If anything, LeBron James has shown that pressure can get to him a bit, and while I don’t expect him and Wade to struggle in Game 2 as much as Game 1, I do think that the Bulls’ defense will continue to keep them uncomfortable, and that could make the difference in this series.

I’ve said all year that Miami may have the most talent, the better players, but Chicago has the best team in the East. They ended up with the best record, and I think they’ll win this series. Winning this series starts by holding court in Game 2. I like Chicago to win against on Wednesday Night.

Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls (-2) (5/18)

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 3 Prediction & Pick

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 3 Prediction & Pick Everyone and their mom thinks the Celtics are done in this one. The new Big 3 is in town, and they’re looking for their crown – or something catchy and full of rhyme. But I’m not ready to crown them quite yet – you could say, I’m with Denny Green on this one. The Celtics, I don’t think they’ll let the Heat off the hook just like that.

Something different needs to happen, however, and all the Celtics’ old man injuries aren’t helping one bit. I think that Shaq’s presence down low might be just what the doctor ordered for the Celtics. He makes opposing offenses think twice about driving in, and more because of his size than his defensive ability. The Celtics need something, and he could be that something.

I also like Boston at home, because they are just flat out better there. Remember a couple years ago when they couldn’t win on the road in the playoffs to save their lives? Well, they’re going home to Boston, and the big headed Heat might start believing the “wrapped up” hype – and that can’t help.

The Celtics need some heroics, no doubt. Rajon Rondo has been playing very well, but they need more. Paul Pierce needs to give them something, come out with a little getty-up in his step instead of an Achilles limp. Whatever they need, I think they get it in Game 3 – I think they win in Boston.

Prediction: Heat 91 – Celtics 98

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics (-3)

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 3 Prediction

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 3 Prediction: The Thunder evened up the series after the Grizzlies pulled the stunner in Game 1, outplaying Oklahoma all night and continuing their amazing playoff run. It’s not that surprising, however, as Memphis has a couple battle tested, defensive minded, tough-nosed players like Tony Allen and Shane Battier keeping their defensive together while Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol give opposing front courts all kinds of trouble. The Grizzlies are good, folks, it’s no fluke.

The Thunder got one hell of a game from their bench in Game 2, and that’s a huge reason why they came out well on top of the Grizz to even the series. 15 and 21 from Eric Maynor (3/4 from the three-point line) and James Harden was even nicer when added to Marc Gasol and Randolph teaming up to shoot 5 for 22 from the floor.

If I were the Thunder, I’d be ready for a battle on the road.

That being said, I still think the Thunder are the team to pick here. Unlike the Spurs, they aren’t at an athletic disadvantage against the Grizzlies, and I do believe they are the better team. With Perkins and Serge, they can match up pretty well against Gasol and Zach, and that makes a ton of difference.

Russell Westbrook is going to have a great game giving Mike Conley fits in Game 3, he’s just due. That will give the Thunder the advantage.

Prediction: Thunder 94 – Grizzlies 89

Oklahoma City Thunder (+3.5) @ Memphis Grizzlies (5/7)

LA Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks NBA Playoff Game 3 Pick

LA Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks NBA Playoff Game 3 Pick: Little has been said of the Lakers’ struggles down the stretch, but it was there to see if you looked. Their two losses to a New Orleans team that had no business beating anybody in the Western Conference playoffs was less of a fluke and more of an alarm clock going off to Laker fans everywhere. At least it should have been.

On the other hand, it’s very tough for me to go all out backing the Mavericks and bust the Lakers because Dallas stunk it up big time down the stretch as well. In fact, if any top seed looked like a possible 1st round upset in the making, it was the Mavs.

But one of these two teams has really turned it around. Dirk is playing out of his mind, hitting shots that would be tough in a game of HORSE, and he’s being guarded (kind of). I felt pretty good about this series coming in, meaning I thought I had a pretty good understanding of the match-ups and how the Lakers shouldn’t be as heavily favored as they were.

I like how the Mavs can match up on the defensive end with the Lakers’ bigs – at least as well as any other team in the league. Chandler is a solid defender with great length, and Haywood can come in and make it tough on either Bynum or Gasol. Then you have Dirk, and one of those two Lakers, or Lamar Odom, has to guard him – which pulls them away from the hoop and opens up stuff for the Mavs to drive, and then kick it out when the Lakers try to recover.

The Mavs have the length, and the Lakers are looking old. I don’t think games 1 and 2 were flukes, and I think the Mavs will come out ready and roaring at home in Game 3. I like them to go up 3-0.

Chicago Bulls @ Atlanta Hawks NBA Pick & Betting Preview

Chicago Bulls @ Atlanta Hawks NBA Pick & Betting Preview: The Bulls might very well be the best team in the East, but if they are, it hasn’t been by much. Chicago has played a lot of close games over their first handful of playoff games, and they sit tied with Atlanta at 1 game a piece headed to play on the road this Friday.

But I think they’re starting to figure it out, they are the better team, and they can really beat the Hawks up from a lot of different areas. Unlike Orlando, this Chicago team is great defensively, and they have more than one big man to guard the basket. Chicago’s rotations are fast, and their never give up defense causes opponents to shoot a lot of tough shots. That will help them in Atlanta.

Derrick Rose has shot pretty poorly over the first two games of this series, and I think that stops one of these nights – why not Friday in Atlanta? If Rose has one of his MVP type games, beating the Hawks is a given. If he shoots 10 for 27, misses just about every three he takes, and turns the ball over 8 times, well, they still have a chance – because that’s what he did in Game 2 and the Bulls ran away with that one.

Look for Carlos Boozer to be a little bigger focus in Atlanta, because if they aren’t going to use him to spread the floor with jumpers from the free throw line area, or post him up on the block, then what is he good for? The guy is brutal defensively. I expect the Bulls to win this one in 5 or 6 games – and I think they get back to even with the Hawks on Friday Night.

Prediction: Bulls 94 – Hawks 88