Wichita State Shockers @ Alabama Crimson Tide 2011 NIT Finals Pick

Wichita State Shockers @ Alabama Crimson Tide 2011 NIT Finals Pick: Wichita State has busted through some solid teams on the way to the NIT Championship, ousting Nebraska, then Virginia Tech (two teams that many thought should have made the Big Dance over VCU…) College of Charleston, and a dominant performance over Washington State on Tuesday Night.

Alabama used great defense (ranked 7th in the country in points allowed and 4th in field goal % defense) to follow up on the promise of their 1-seed to beat a handful of teams including Miami and then Colorado (by 1) to get to the final.

I said that I’d probably go with ‘Bama’s defense, but more research has me going the other way.

There’s a couple tough things for me looking into this game. I like Alabama’s defensive prowess, they can really use their length and hustle to keep points off the board, and that’s something Wichita isn’t great at anyway, scoring the basketball I mean. And both teams rebound the ball pretty well, but I think my key is that Wichita rebounds the ball great. They’ve out-boarded their opponents in 9 of their last 10 games, and every game of the NIT tournament. They’ve gone through big time teams with ease, and in overtime. They’ve won close games, they’ve dominated some games. Alabama is 7-3 in their last 10 games, but all 3 losses have come when they’ve been out-rebounded. If Wichita State prevails, it’s because they win the rebound battle – and that’s something they usually do win. I’ll take the small underdog.

(4) Wichita State Shockers (+1.5) @ (1) Alabama Crimson Tide (ESPN 2)

Dallas Mavericks @ LA Lakers TNT Thursday Night NBA Pick

Dallas Mavericks @ LA Lakers TNT Thursday Night NBA Pick: Little separates the Dallas Mavericks and the LA Lakers, at least in terms of record. The Mavericks took care of business on Wednesday Night, beating the Clippers and sailing into their game against the Lakers just a half game back of LA for the 2nd best record in the West. I mentioned in my newsletter that a #2 seed is on the line between these two, but I had forgotten about the NBA’s rule giving the top 3 seeds to the 3 division winners in each conference. That means LA has one of those spots locked up, and unless the Mavericks can catch the Spurs (unlikely), Dallas will end up out of the Top 3 for sure. Kind of a bummer if you’re Dallas. But the 2nd best record in the league wouldn’t be all for not, they’d have home court advantage against everyone besides San Antonio.

If the playoffs started today, the Spurs would be #1, LA #2, Oklahoma #3, and Dallas #4. 5-8 would be Denver, New Orleans, Portland, and Memphis. LA would play Portland (which has been tough for them for quite some time now) and Dallas would draw a Denver team playing as well as anyone down the stretch. It could get wild.

Still, Dallas and LA have as good a chance as anyone to play for the Western Conference Finals, and home court would mean a ton to whomever wins it. This game could mean a lot in that regard.

For this game, I think a rested Lakers squad is a better bet than a tired Mavericks team. Dallas played to the finish last night against the Clippers, winning by 6, and I think that makes Thursday tough on them. I’ll take the Lakers to win and cover.

Dallas Mavericks @ LA Lakers (-6) (TNT) (3/31)

VCU Rams @ Florida State Seminoles NCAA Tournament Pick

VCU Rams @ Florida State Seminoles NCAA Tournament Pick: While this is largely viewed as the “who cares” game in the Sweet 16, I can’t wait to see this one go down. Here we have the VCU Rams, a team that plenty of people questioned their spot in the tournament at all, and you’ve got the Florida State Seminoles, a decent (but not great) ACC team that lost to Virginia Tech twice, Clemson, and Maryland, didn’t have one single solid out of conference win, and still made it to the dance while Virginia Tech was left out. But hey, both of these teams are playing great. When you’re hot you’re hot, and they have been.

FSU got through a Texas A&M team that many people thought would do damage in this tournament. Then they slammed a 2-seed favorite 71-57 when they saw Notre Dame in Round 2. They used as much of a team attack as anyone in the Dance. Not one guy on their team has scored more than 15 points in either game, but 5 guys have scored 7 or more in each of their contests. They’ve been attacking the hoop and getting to the free throw line. Nine threes against the Irish didn’t hurt, either.

VCU got more flack than anyone for getting invited to the Dance, then they went on ahead and slammed USC (in the semi-play-in game), destroyed Georgetown despite a tough turnaround. And, I forgot to mention, they beat Purdue by 18, kicking my bracket right in the…. Foot.

VCU is just too efficient and too tough right now. They don’t turn the ball over, they cause a lot of turnovers, and they run their offense to get high percentage looks they they’ve turned into lots and lots of points. They have back to back 18 point wins over Georgetown and Purdue – that’s enough for me, I’ll ride this skateboard a little longer.

(11) VCU Rams (+4) @ (10) Florida State Seminoles (-4) (3/25) (TBS)

Kentucky Wildcats @ Ohio State Buckeyes College Basketball Prediction

Kentucky Wildcats @ Ohio State Buckeyes College Basketball Prediction: The Wildcats keep it close. So far this season, Kentucky has 8 losses, only two of them have been by more than 4 points. They’ve really done well of late, coming on strong toward the end of the SEC season, beating both Florida and Vanderbilt (two teams they lost to earlier in the season) at the end of the regular season. Then they went ahead and won the SEC tournament outright, as if their ending wasn’t enough to show how good they’ve become. But somehow, Florida still pulled away with a 2-seed and Kentucky got just a 4. Not a big deal, ha, tell that to Kentucky who has to play Ohio State in the Sweet 16. Of course, Florida and Vandy are out of the tournament, so maybe this is sweet justice.

Ohio State lost to Purdue and Wisconsin – both in the matter of a 3-game stretch that sandwiched a win over Michigan. They also beat Purdue and Wisconsin during different stretches of the season. So, in other words, the Buckeyes have yet to play against an opponent they haven’t beaten. Or even better, everyone they’ve played, they’ve beat. They’ve been untested thus far in the tournament, looking like the true number 1 seed in the Dance.

This is an interesting match-up, no doubt, the youth and athleticism of Kentucky against the old-school Buckeyes.

It’s hard to see Ohio State losing. You need to play perfect against them to win, and Kentucky doesn’t spend too much time playing flawless basketball. But their athleticism is tough to match. Very difficult call for me, but I’ll take Ohio State. They’ve done all the little things all season long, and that will help them in this one.

(4) Kentucky Wildcats @ (1) Ohio State Buckeyes (-5.5) (3/25) (CBS)

Richmond Spiders @ Kansas Jayhawks Sweet 16 Free Pick

Richmond Spiders @ Kansas Jayhawks Sweet 16 Free Pick: I think Richmond is tough, very tough. Morehead State was a good team, and the Spiders made them look silly in the Round of 32. The Jayhawks are a very good team, but they aren’t scary-good, and despite having the make-up to pound the Spiders inside, I’m not sure they’re much of a bet giving up double digits in the Sweet 16.

Richmond has been able to deal with size down low, despite getting out-rebounded in both their games thus far in the NCAA tournament. Vanderbilt out rebounded them by 12, and shot 50% from the field, but Richmond still won.

Richmond has just 7 turnovers in their first 2 games of the tournament: now that’s holding onto the ball. If they continue to move the ball efficiently on offense, and limit the Jayhawks’ chances in transition, they should be able to cover the 10 point spread at least.

Don’t count them out, either – just because they’re a low seeded small school with a spider for a mascot doesn’t mean they don’t have a chance against the big, bad Jayhawks.

(12) Richmond Spiders @ (1) Kansas Jayhawks (-10.5) (3/25) (TBS)

Marquette Golden Eagles @ North Carolina Tar Heels Sweet 16 Prediction

Marquette Golden Eagles @ North Carolina Tar Heels Sweet 16 Prediction: If the Marquette Golden Eagles aren’t the epitome of the Big East, I don’t know who is. The Eagles have beaten UConn, West Virginia, Xavier, and Syracuse over the last month – but they’ve also lost to Cincinnati and Seton Hall. Yes, 14-15 Seton Hall. The weird thing is how Marquette managed just an 11-seed. The Golden Eagles beat very good teams this season like UConn, West Virginia (twice), Syracuse and Notre Dame, plus had very close out of conference losses to Duke (77-82), Gonzaga (63-66), Wisconsin (64-69), and Vanderbilt (76-77). They didn’t win, but that’s one tough out of conference schedule, and pretty solid performances in each. Plus they ended the year with 20 wins before the Big Dance, in the Big East to boot – and they get an 11-seed – no wonder they are in the Sweet 16, playing with a chip on your shoulder like that can get you places.

Getting through two very good teams in Xavier (by 11) and Syracuse (by 4 points) was an impressive start to the tourney for the Eagles, but now they play Carolina, a team that finished the season as hot as anyone in the country, closing out with win after win to take the ACC regular season crown from the Blue Devils. A tough tournament in the ACC still got them to the finals, only to lose to the Blue Devils.

The Tar Heels didn’t play great basketball against the Huskies in the Round of 32, struggling with a team that matched their athleticism and moved up and down the court with the Tar Heels.

I don’t think Marquette will be able to match Carolina’s length, and that will eventually be the difference in this game. The Tar Heels will challenge too many shots at the rim, and Marquette will need a superior effort to stop the Tar Heels from beating them up on the glass. I like NC by 5.

(11) Marquette Golden Eagles @ (2) North Carolina Tar Heels (-4.5) (3/25) (CBS)

Butler Bulldogs @ Wisconsin Badgers Sweet 16 Betting Pick

Butler Bulldogs @ Wisconsin Badgers Sweet 16 Betting Pick: The Bulldogs have been impressive late, that’s for sure. That’s not how the entire season went. After just missing out on beating the Blue Devils in last year’s National Championship, the Bulldogs had a rough start to the 2010-11 season, getting whooped by Louisville, beaten by Evansville, having trouble with Loyola-Chicago, getting beat up by Duke, losing ot Xavier, and even falling 4 times in conference – Wisconsin Milwaukee (twice), Wright State, and Valparaiso. Mix in just a couple decent wins (Washington State and Florida State), and Butler wasn’t expected to make a return trip to the Championship. But things couldn’t be going much better.

The Bulldogs won their conference tournament after finishing the season with 7 straight victories. Then the slipped by a tough Old Dominion team with a last second buzzer beater to get the tourney off on the right foot. They needed another miracle against Pittsburgh as they won 71-70 on possibly the most controversial couple foul calls in a row (but they deserved the win, I believe). So now they’ve won 11 straight, once against #1 seeded Pittsburgh, and in comes Wisconsin.

The Badgers didn’t end the season as well, getting destroyed by Ohio State by 28 points on the road, then losing their first game in the Big 10 conference tournament when Penn State held them to just 33 points. But I think it’s fair to say things have turned around. Despite everyone (besides me) picking them to lose as a 4 seed to Belmont, the Badgers won by 14. When Kansas State was supposed to beat the Badgers, well, they toughed through an unreal performance by Jacob Pullen and won by 5. They are playing well.

But I think they can outplay the Bulldogs at Butler’s own game. Wisconsin will have an advantage on the post, they’ll be able to draw Butler’s bigs out a bit, and despite Jordan Taylor’s 2-16 performance against Kansas State, the kid is a special guard. I expect him to bounce back and give the Badgers a win (and cover) over Butler.

(8) Butler Bulldogs @ (4) Wisconsin Badgers (-4) (3/24) (TBS)

Arizona Wildcats @ Duke Blue Devils Point Spread Basketball Pick

Arizona Wildcats @ Duke Blue Devils Point Spread Basketball Pick: Listen here, I don’t like this match-up for the Wildcats. Duke puts a lot of pressure on opposing teams, and the way Arizona freaks out under heavy pressure has me worried about them. That being said, 9 points is just too much for a Sweet 16 game where the underdogs possess the best post player, without a question.

Derrick Williams is a stud. Despite struggling mightily from the floor against Texas, Williams has been a difference maker for the Wildcats all season long. He’s a selfless player that will find his teammates if Duke puts too much emphasis on him.

I like Duke to win this game, but like I said, 9 points is just too many for me to give. The Wildcats have lost 3 games by more than 8 points all season long. Duke relies heavily on three pointers. Duke can get out-rebounded, despite working very hard to control the boards. Arizona beat a very good Texas team with their best player going 4-14 from the field (Williams was a lone double digit scorer – nobody besides him averaged more than 9 points this year for Arizona).

I’ll take the Wildcats to cover. And please, please win. Seeing Duke lose is basically what I’m going for every single time the NCAA tournament kicks off. I’m almost disappointed if they aren’t in it (which hasn’t been a problem much during my life time). I’d rather see them play and lose than not get in at all – now that’s respect…. And hate. Plus, this is basically a home-game(ish) atmosphere for Arizona out west in California.

(5) Arizona Wildcats (+9) @ (1) Duke Blue Devils (3/24) (CBS)

BYU Cougars @ Florida Gators March Madness Free Pick

BYU Cougars @ Florida Gators March Madness Free Pick: I have been waiting for BYU to lose since they walked into the tournament without one of their most effective big men, but this may be Jimmer’s thing to lose, and I’m not sure I can bet against a guy that has unlimited range on his jump shot, great basketball IQ, and the quickness and body control to get to the rim on just about any defender in college basketball.

It doesn’t help that I don’t think much about Florida. I don’t know how they snaked a 2-seed in this tournament, but it allowed them to get to the Sweet 16 by going out and beating the likes of UC Santa Barbara and UCLA – top notch, bravo.

BYU is out of that class, and I think Florida will find that out real quick. Florida has beaten 2 teams that are still in the tournament, and one of them, Kentucky, beat them twice during the season. The other is Florida State, and let’s be honest, their stay has been magic. The Gators spent much of their season beating up on mediocre teams in the SEC, and that gets them a 2-seed? Please.

Anyway, I think BYU is a better basketball team, and while part of that is because they have this one freak scoring machine, I just think they go about their business better than the Gators as well. That’s worth a win in my book. And… They have this Jimmer guy.

(3) BYU Cougars (+3) @ (2) Florida Gators (3/24) (TBS)

Connecticut Huskies @ San Diego State Aztecs NCAA Basketball Pick

Connecticut Huskies @ San Diego State Aztecs NCAA Basketball Pick: Tough to bet against Kemba Walker – in fact, in big games, tournaments, and crazy last shot contests, it’s just flat out dumb. So call me dumb, that’s cool, I’m taking the Aztecs. First and foremost, I think they’re better than the Huskies. But I just think they have too many team players and some very good guys that will do work against UConn’s defense. Plus, Kemba has to miss one of those shots, right?

SDSU needed some extra time to beat Temple, but they got the job done, and really managed the game well to always be taking the shot to win in do or tie opportunities. In the end, their rebounding bested the Owls, and that’s no small task. Temple’s a very good team.

UConn smacked Bucknell around, then did Cincinnati right out of the tournament as some Big East on Big East crime went down. (Speaking of the Big East, what happened to the Super Conference anyway? They have 2 teams left, and one of those is 11-seed Marquette).

The Huskies haven’t been tested too much of late, but they are ready for the big game, so I can’t have that as a reason for the loss. However, I do think that UConn has been playing up and down all year, and they’ve been rocking the UP switch for a while now. I’m ready for the down, and I think SDSU is going to capitalize.

(3) Connecticut Huskies @ (2) San Diego State Aztecs (+1) (3/24) (CBS)

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