Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers AFC Divisional Playoffs Saturday

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers AFC Divisional Playoffs Saturday: Baltimore is 13-4 on the season after ousting the Chiefs in Kansas City last week. They have a special place in my heart as they are the only winner I picked in Round 1. The Ravens are just 9-7-1 ATS this season, and 3 of their 4 losses came on the road. Baltimore has won 5 straight games, covering the spread in 4 of those. The only game they’ve lost in the last two months was a 10-13 home loss to Pittsburgh.

The Steelers come after a week off after winning the bye as a 2 seed behind New England. They are 12-4 this season, 10-6 ATS, and they too have won 4 out of their last 5 games against the spread. Overall, they’ve won 6 of their last 7 games. They were just 5-3 at home this season. They lost to Baltimore earlier in the season, in a close game, one in which Big Ben didn’t play. The Steelers have rushed for more yardage than their opponent in each of their last 7 games. They have passed for more yardage than their opponents in each of their last 5 games.

The home team had won 6 of the last 7 meetings in this rivalry before this season. But this year Pitt won by 3 at Baltimore while Baltimore won by 3 at Pittsburgh.

The Ravens and Steelers is an interesting beast, but this game is always freakishly close, and that makes it tough not to take the points. Neither defense is flawless, but both bring the heat. Neither team is healthy on the offensive line, but I think the Ravens are better up front. Big Dumb is probably better than Flacco right now, but it’s close. Ray Rice hasn’t done anything in the two meetings with Pittsburgh this season, but Boldin and Mason had nice games against Pittsburgh in-season, and with the Steelers’ struggling with big plays in the secondary, that’s enough for me to take the Ravens and the points.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers