Alabama Crimson Tide @ Michigan State Spartans Capital One Bowl Pick

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Michigan State Spartans Capital One Bowl Pick: This game follows one of my main rules (one I break from time to time, but mostly follow it), always take the lesser ranked favorite. The Crimson Tide become that team with their #16 overall ranking as a near double digit favorite against 9th ranked Michigan State.

Aside from fitting one of my favorite formulas, the Tide are the much better team. I guess it’s tough to argue with Michigan State’s season, they finished just a bad game away from undefeated (a 6-37 crushing at the hands of Iowa), busting through 11 teams, winning close games and blowouts alike. They beat Penn State, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Illinois, Northwestern, and Michigan (as far as bowl teams are concerned), and they did so with a very balanced attack offensively and solid defense. They aren’t great at anything, but they can beat you plenty of ways.

Alabama is a different beast altogether. They had a bit of a disappointing season, but aside from a two-touchdown loss to South Carolina, their three-point loss at LSU and their 1-point loss to Auburn in the SEC Championship game, all they did is win. Everyone knows Alabama wasn’t aiming for a 9-3 season, but they still have a great team. They are a team with so much talent that a bowl-game should really benefit them. They’ve had a lot of time to teach their youth, a lot of time to prepare for Michigan State and become comfortable with them. Talent-wise, this game shouldn’t be close, and I don’t think it will be. Teams that out-rushed the Spartans gave them trouble, Northwestern nearly beat them, Iowa did, and Purdue gave them all they could handle. Look for Alabama to win by 2-3 touchdowns.

#16 Alabama Crimson Tide (-9.5) @ #9 Michigan State Spartans