NCAA Week 14 Pick Utah State Aggies @ Boise State Broncos

NCAA Week 14 Pick Utah State Aggies @ Boise State Broncos: The Aggies haven’t played a team anywhere close to Boise’s talent level, to their speed, or to their overall goodness… Except for Nevada, a team the Aggies went on the road to play and lost by just 14. Utah State has lost a lot of games this year, don’t get me wrong, even Hawaii and San Diego State had their way with them (45-7 and 41-7 respectively). But the Aggies had an ice 3 game run there where they hung with the Wolfpack, slid by a bad New Mexico state team, then put up 38 points on San Jose State. Then they lost to Idaho by 22… But I’m looking for goods here.

Betting against Boise almost seems dumb, and if you look at their season, it has been. The Broncos are 8-3 ATS despite having to cover huge spreads week in and week out. But only twice has the spread been greater than it is this week, and while they have covered in both those contests, the Aggies are better than each of the teams Boise beat.

The Broncos will probably come out really pissed off, really butt-hurt over losing their chance at an undefeated season, and ready to prove to everyone how good they are. They aren’t terrible in this mode, but you have to wonder how they’ll react to a different scenario. For the first time this year they aren’t trying to win them all. They aren’t trying to fight for a Championship or score as many points as possible through 3 quarters so they can get their point differential up. All that is over – now they just have to win, and while I fully expect them to succeed there, a 39 point cover is a lot. I don’t think they outscore the Aggies by that much.

Utah State Aggies (+39) @ #11 Boise State Broncos